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Brexit discussion thread III

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    #9932
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    EdgeCase wrote: »
    He went on to say that things for him were dire and he couldn't see how Brexit could possibly make them any worse.

    He'll find out in a few months.

    Seriously though, its such a pity that people in the UK have been taken in by a narrative of imposed helplessness. Unions, strikes, even riots were tools that people like him could have used in the past to force Government to level the playing field. But now people have been fooled into abstaining from the process or kicking themselves in the balls instead of doing something productive to help themselves and their communities.


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    #9933
    EdgeCase
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭EdgeCase


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    He'll find out in a few months.

    Seriously though, its such a pity that people in the UK have been taken in by a narrative of imposed helplessness. Unions, strikes, even riots were tools that people like him could have used in the past to force Government to level the playing field. But now people have been fooled into abstaining from the process or kicking themselves in the balls instead of doing something productive to help themselves and their communities.

    I don't think it's anything new. It's just a broken political system that is quite happy to grab power with toxic, lies-based politics. I see very little positivity coming out of the UK political environment.

    Bear in mind that the place is so toxic that a very friendly, warm, positive-looking, normal, centrist MP was even assassinated back in 2016. That's something that you don't see very often in a developed, Western European democracy.

    There's something gone *very* wrong over there at the moment and it's really not being analysed or challenged, any more than it is in the US with Trump.

    What's even worse is that the level of toxicity and venom has been normalised in debate in a way that I haven't really seen before.

    There isn't even any leadership to look towards. I don't see anyone over there selling a positive message on anything, and I would include the left and right in that. May's abysmal and I find Corbyn depressing.

    Nobody's laying out a positive future, it's all about 'fear of others'.

    I think you are going to see the UK basically self-harm through Brexit and we should be preparing for impending fallout that may impact us here.


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    #9934
    Mezcita
    Registered Users Posts: 2,328 ✭✭✭Mezcita


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    I don't hold much hope at this stage that hard brexit can be avoided. But I do hope that when it happens, it will cause enough of a shock to the UK system that it drives some momentum behind those working to beat back the brexiteers. Lets not forget that there was never a wide margin of support for Brexit in the first place and its lead has been shrinking not growing. Faced with the reality of Brexit, it only needs a very small swing to get the majority behind a sensible deal.

    Sure but their system (as in their electoral system) does not allow change to happen easily. The first past the post system totally eliminates the voice of quite a large amount of people who might not want to support Labour or the Conservatives.

    The margin of support for Brexit hasn't collapsed. While those who voted to remain seem unwilling to fight it. The remain march in London last weekend possibly being the most blatant sign of that. 100,000 people when in reality it should be far higher if people actually cared enough about the whole thing.

    But even if the scales tipped the other way and Brexit was stopped, that would still leave a huge number of people who think that Brexit is the start of a new dawn for Britain. Their response would be anything but measured and I think that would be another flash point which would actually escalate to violence over here. People have nothing to lose.

    Let them roll the dice and find out for themselves how they get on away from the EU. It's the only way they will learn.


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    #9935
    Dymo
    Registered Users Posts: 1,559 ✭✭✭Dymo


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    You kinda have to admire the pure pig headed refusal to change tack of the people who still say it's all "Project Fear" and that everything will be fine.


    I quite like this form of reasoning by Brexiters, it all the EU's fault bloody French and Germans
    Brexit. UK is Europe's bad guy now.
    These people have some cheek. Some bloody cheek! It hasn't been even 100 years since the time we sailed to save the same France that is now looking down their noses at us.

    We didn't have to liberate the fields of france and to be honest, I'm starting to regret it now. And the Germans! Don't even get me started on those Germans, inventors of the holocaust and propagators of world wars. You now have the brass to make Brexit difficult for us?!

    You don't have me fooled for one second. This is just another German scheme for world domination. We noticed the artificially low Euro..Hmm I wonder who that benefits..Surely not Europe's manufacturing nation, surely not! It just riles me up! Really just goes to show you just how far favours can be returned. spit


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    #9936
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Mezcita wrote: »
    People have nothing to lose.

    This is, of course, not true at all. They have food, medicine and fuel.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/mad-max-brexit-officials-tell-12640465

    Officials present 3 crashout scenarios. In one scenario, the port of Dover collapses on Day 1, supermarkets begin running out of food within a week, hospitals run out of medicines within 2 weeks.

    That is not the worst case scenario.


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    #9937
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    EdgeCase wrote: »
    There's something gone *very* wrong over there at the moment and it's really not being analysed or challenged, any more than it is in the US with Trump.

    What's even worse is that the level of toxicity and venom has been normalised in debate in a way that I haven't really seen before.
    Having a woman dosed up on morphine carrying a sick bucket wheeled in in a wheelchair have to travel from Birmingham into the chamber to cast a vote. Another woman 2 days overdue having to do the same. Things have certainly gotten worse.


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    #9938
    kunst nugget
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,375 ✭✭✭✭kunst nugget


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    This is, of course, not true at all. They have food, medicine and fuel.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/mad-max-brexit-officials-tell-12640465

    Officials present 3 crashout scenarios. In one scenario, the port of Dover collapses on Day 1, supermarkets begin running out of food within a week, hospitals run out of medicines within 2 weeks.

    That is not the worst case scenario.

    The artist's impression is hilarious.


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    #9939
    VinLieger
    Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    This is, of course, not true at all. They have food, medicine and fuel.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/mad-max-brexit-officials-tell-12640465

    Officials present 3 crashout scenarios. In one scenario, the port of Dover collapses on Day 1, supermarkets begin running out of food within a week, hospitals run out of medicines within 2 weeks.

    That is not the worst case scenario.


    Don't forget electricity and water they are both just as vulnerable to the same obstacles food medicine and fuel will face on a no deal brexit. The average person can't imagine anything like that happening because they take far too many things like water, food and electricity for granted. Look what happened up and down the UK and Ireland during the snow in Feb/March, supermarkets emptied and not properly refilled for nearly a week.



    The KFC distribution fiasco is a great case study of how fvcked this might get for them. They all naively assume for example one minute delay on a couple of lorries going through customs will just mean everything is only delayed by 1 minute. Of course they are entirely ignorant to the complexities of supply chain management and how business don't stock weeks worth of supplies, they order things to be ready to be replaced exactly when they are due to run out. Any new delay that has not been calculated for and can hold things up for potentially an indefinite or uncertain amount of time will grind supply chains to a halt.


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    #9940
    Mezcita
    Registered Users Posts: 2,328 ✭✭✭Mezcita


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    This is, of course, not true at all. They have food, medicine and fuel.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/mad-max-brexit-officials-tell-12640465

    Officials present 3 crashout scenarios. In one scenario, the port of Dover collapses on Day 1, supermarkets begin running out of food within a week, hospitals run out of medicines within 2 weeks.

    That is not the worst case scenario.

    I agree with you but my "nothing to lose" comment relates more to Edgecase's discussion with a guy in his 20's as it's a good indication of the lives of a number of people here.

    Brexit has been painted as a chance for Britain (and therefore people like that guy) to do better by breaking away. Clearly all nonsense as the poor will be hardest hit by this. Obviously he is not representative of everyone but I do feel that the gulf between London and the rest of the UK is so large that people are looking for anything to cling onto. Brexit fits the bill.


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    #9941
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Mezcita wrote: »
    Brexit has been painted as a chance for Britain (and therefore people like that guy) to do better by breaking away.

    I don't think these people at the bottom believe Brexit will be an improvement, I think they hope it will destroy the system completely, and whatever system rises from the Max Max dystopian ashes might be better.

    The risk is that they end up living in the ashes with their current Tory masters still be on top, Immortan Rees-Mogg and Imperator May.


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    #9942
    Leroy42
    Registered Users Posts: 15,547 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Richard Ballantyne Chief Executive of the British Ports Association has just told reporters "How do you plan for something you don't know what to plan for?"

    Eurotunnel Chief John O'Keefe has said "there is no space" for Customs checks at Channel Tunnel as they are "literally on a cliff", so any processing will have to be done inland.

    He also said "As we know absolutely nothing from the government about what Day 1 No Deal will look like, we can't build infrastructure, can't recruit people, can't specify system - we can't construct anything"

    What I find depressing is that these quotes are part of tweets from Faisal Islam and the first reply to them is "Is he a remainer by any chance?"


    The UK continue to wave the threat of a no deal around yet it is clear as day they have no planning done or the ability to be ready for such an eventuality. Do they really think the EU can't see that?


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    #9943
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Leroy42 wrote: »

    The UK continue to wave the threat of a no deal around yet it is clear as day they have no planning done or the ability to be ready for such an eventuality. Do they really think the EU can't see that?

    I think the two high lights above say it all.

    1. They have done no planning - 'because they need us more than we need them'

    2. 'The EU read everything'. But we have to keep everything secret to preserve our negotiating position.

    I cannot yet decide if 'No deal' is going to be the end result or they will take what is on offer, whatever that is. I think a transition year debating group would do better than the UK Government have.


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    #9944
    Lemming
    Registered Users Posts: 14,148 ✭✭✭✭Lemming


    Mezcita wrote: »
    The margin of support for Brexit hasn't collapsed. While those who voted to remain seem unwilling to fight it. The remain march in London last weekend possibly being the most blatant sign of that. 100,000 people when in reality it should be far higher if people actually cared enough about the whole thing.

    500,000 actually by revised estimates, original source being the MET. The BBC were very slow to report the number.


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    #9945
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,803 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    FT reporting that Bank of America are shifting jobs from London to Paris.


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    #9946
    Leroy42
    Registered Users Posts: 15,547 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Lemming wrote: »
    500,000 actually by revised estimates, original source being the MET. The BBC were very slow to report the number.

    It did the job. It is yesterdays news so nobody is paying attention now. The number could be anything, but because they could use 100k it could be more easily dismissed.


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    #9947
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    Sam Russell wrote: »

    1. They have done no planning -

    Because those plans would have to touch off of reality at some point at that means admitting that no-deal is the ****show we all know it is. If you don't want to live in the real world, less information is much better. It's easier to sleep.


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    #9948
    Mezcita
    Registered Users Posts: 2,328 ✭✭✭Mezcita


    Lemming wrote: »
    500,000 actually by revised estimates, original source being the MET. The BBC were very slow to report the number.

    My mistake.


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    #9949
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    Mezcita wrote: »
    The margin of support for Brexit hasn't collapsed.

    Yes, but it does not really have to. Though I suspect that the only thing that will put this whole mess to bed is giving the Brexiteers what they want and watching it choke them.


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    #9950
    Strazdas
    Registered Users Posts: 18,287 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    EdgeCase wrote: »
    Just to follow on on my previous post (a few back).

    One of the conversations I had over in England really left me wondering about what's going on. I was talking to a guy in his early 20s who told me that he'd never voted in any elections, but had voted for Brexit. Then he assured me that he would never vote in any elections in future either as he felt it was pointless and that Brexit was the only thing that could make a big change.

    He told me about how he was struggling to make ends meet because his wages weren't keeping pace with inflation. Then that his parents were in unstable employment and had no prospect of pensions and his grandmother had been "messed around" by the bedroom tax and that the establishment considered him to be a 'chav' and he had no future. He went on to say that things for him were dire and he couldn't see how Brexit could possibly make them any worse.

    It's an odd, odd time over there and I think they're completely underestimating the underlying problems that were bubbling up when they London (and other cities) riots kicked off back in 2011 and were more or less ignored as 'a bunch of malcontents' by BOTH mainstream parties and were utterly dismissed by the vast majority of the media.

    They did no analysis, no digging, no thinking .. nothing.

    I still think there's a massive element of Brexit that's a snap back at things like affordability of housing, a perception of declining living standards and opportunity and stripping back of social services and things like access to university education.

    You've seen a relatively rapid unpicking of a lot of the structures that were keeping Britain less unequal than it is now. The social cohesion has been chipped away at by the Tories, but also by an element of Labour too in the post-Blair era and in the aftermath of 2008.

    It's something Ireland would also want to learn from. Failing to tackle the housing crisis here and "us vs them" politics talking about people in bad circumstances as 'lazy' and so on will lead to all the same problems if we're not careful.
    I don't think we are quite as bad as at least there's a debate here about many of those social issues, even if the government doesn't really respond very effectively (particularly in housing), but you could easily see Ireland sliding into that mess very rapidly if things aren't copped onto soon.

    The ever-increasing costs relative to income are just creating a lot of disgruntled people who are basically the 'working poor'.

    I think though all of that has fed into Brexit in the UK. It's not as simple as the tabloids would have you believe.

    What worries me a *lot* is what do people like this guy do when Brexit happens and delivers even more austerity and the Tories' wet dream of funnelling resources into elites?

    Yes, I think the real story of Brexit is not about EU membership at all but a fractured society and many millions of people have been left behind.

    Unfortunately, they have a lying and corrupt press telling them that the EU and immigrants are responsible for all the hardship and austerity and those who are worst off (like your friend) are lapping up this nonsense.

    This will presumably end very badly. Probably more riots in UK cities in future and this time with no EU to blame.


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    #9951
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    So... It seems that "an Irish Minister" has said to the press that David Davis is known as "the tea boy" in Irish government circles and that the Irish government will only hold discussions with Olly Robbins, a senior civil servant responsible for Brexit talks.
    Asked how negotiations with Brexit Secretary David Davis were going, the Irish minister replied: “We deal with Olly Robbins. We don’t deal with the tea boy.”
    From Politico.

    I suppose it shows the breakdown in relations as a result of shambolic British diplomacy, but still, needless antagonism is not going to move things forward.


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    #9952
    Leroy42
    Registered Users Posts: 15,547 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Careless words.

    However, we have been waiting for years for the UK to move anything forward, particularly since they triggered A50. And then can't even agree what they want themselves. So I fully understand it.

    It is noticeable that the tone has changed from the Irish (Leo and Coveney) over the last few weeks. I think they feel they have been sold a pup by agreeing the UK to keep pushing everything back. IMO, they did it to help both the UK and ourselves, there was little to be gained by stamping our foot down, but they would have been assured, no doubt, that the UK were actively working on solutions.

    It is very clear at this point that they have done nothing of the short.


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    #9953
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    Careless words.

    However, we have been waiting for years for the UK to move anything forward, particularly since they triggered A50. And then can't even agree what they want themselves. So I fully understand it.

    It is noticeable that the tone has changed from the Irish (Leo and Coveney) over the last few weeks. I think they feel they have been sold a pup by agreeing the UK to keep pushing everything back. IMO, they did it to help both the UK and ourselves, there was little to be gained by stamping our foot down, but they would have been assured, no doubt, that the UK were actively working on solutions.

    It is very clear at this point that they have done nothing of the short.

    There is very little else that could have been done on our part, and allowing the talks to move forward in December sacrificed nothing really while getting the concept of a backstop firmly embedded in the process. If it ends in no deal now, after Ireland having showed flexibility in December, it reflects badly on the UK. Had Leo dug in back then, the blame for collapsed talks would have been on us.


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    #9954
    Leroy42
    Registered Users Posts: 15,547 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Totally agree, my point being that Leo would, based on the agreement and pronouncements since, have expected that the trade off for going easy would be that TM and the Uk would work on finding solutions. It must be very difficult to watch as the UK spends all its time fighting itself and blaming others rather than working on the problem at hand and how they can limit the damage to others.


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    #9955
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Strazdas wrote: »
    Yes, I think the real story of Brexit is not about EU membership at all but a fractured society and many millions of people have been left behind.

    Unfortunately, they have a lying and corrupt press telling them that the EU and immigrants are responsible for all the hardship and austerity and those who are worst off (like your friend) are lapping up this nonsense.

    This will presumably end very badly. Probably more riots in UK cities in future and this time with no EU to blame.

    All 'great' civilizations rise and fall. You would have to think we are witnessing the fall of the British Empire in earnest.

    They thought(?) they were doing the right thing by holding the referendum and then following the mandate. 'The people have spoken'. The problem was that they had no referendum commision, the question was ambiguous, and the mandate was vague and represents nothing like what the Tories claim it does. The Tories barely have a mandate to govern given their poor showing in the election after the referendum.

    They are hiding behind 'centuries of British parliamentary democracy', but they are twisting it and undermining it.


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    #9956
    Strazdas
    Registered Users Posts: 18,287 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    J Mysterio wrote: »
    All 'great' civilizations rise and fall. You would have to think we are witnessing the fall of the British Empire in earnest.

    They thought(?) they were doing the right thing by holding the referendum and then following the mandate. 'The people have spoken'. The problem was that they had no referendum commision, the question was ambiguous, and the mandate was vague and represents nothing like what the Tories claim it does. The Tories barely have a mandate to govern given their poor showing in the election after the referendum.

    They are hiding behind 'centuries of British parliamentary democracy', but they are twisting it and undermining it.

    An in / out referendum on EU membership when the government had made no plans to leave and didn't want to leave was a disastrously bad idea. A more astute PM would never have made such a crass error.

    There can't be too many developed countries in the world who would send themselves to hell in a handcart on the back of an advisory referendum result.


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    #9957
    trellheim
    Registered Users Posts: 5,888 ✭✭✭trellheim


    There can't be too many developed countries in the world who would send themselves to hell in a handcart on the back of an advisory referendum result.

    They ( a lot of the people in power or in media ) just do not see it like that and understanding that is key . It is very likely the UK thought the same about IRL splitting from the UK.


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    #9958
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    trellheim wrote: »
    They ( a lot of the people in power or in media ) just do not see it like that and understanding that is key . It is very likely the UK thought the same about IRL splitting from the UK.

    Except that we had gone to hell in a handbasket because of being part of the UK.


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    #9959
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Very interesting interview with the Spanish Foreign Minister, Josep Borrell, a former President of the EU Parliament.

    May’s plan to keep the UK in a single market for goods without respecting free movement of people after will be rejected by Germany, France and Spain. He warned that France and Germany were irritated with the energy-sapping talks with the UK and would not accept such a proposal. Spain, which he described as “disappointed, not angry” by Brexit, was in agreement with Paris and Berlin.

    Following talks with Simon Coveney, Borrell said: “It is impossible to put the border between the two Irelands – impossible. There are more than 300 crossing points. Are you going to put up 300 control posts? That is not possible. “The idea of putting a virtual border, with drones and planes and computers ... We are not so advanced. It does not work. So there are only two solutions. Either the whole of [the island of] Ireland is a [regulatory] area, and the border is in the British ports, which the United Kingdom will not accept. Or the UK remains in the EU customs [area].”

    Borrell admitted that he believed that “on the last night we will not have an agreement, we will have to stop the clock as always”. But he warned that a fix that would suit all parties was not on the cards.

    He added that negotiations with the UK over Gibraltar were continuing, with Spain insistent that the transition period would not apply to the Rock unless an agreement on the territory’s future was found.


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    #9960
    flutered
    Registered Users Posts: 6,677 ✭✭✭flutered


    trellheim wrote: »
    They ( a lot of the people in power or in media ) just do not see it like that and understanding that is key . It is very likely the UK thought the same about IRL splitting from the UK.
    they also thought that we would leave the eu to join them in a race to the bottom


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    #9961
    flutered
    Registered Users Posts: 6,677 ✭✭✭flutered


    Mezcita wrote: »
    Just need to ramp up the propaganda machine then. Been working for decades for them. Project the (totally reasonable) concerns from business as being Project Fear/ Remoaner nonsense. Once they crash out they can pin the blame on the EU for not giving them the ultimate dream deal.

    As J Mysterio pointed out the wheels are starting to come off across multiple different areas. But the media can just either choose to ignore it or not give it the coverage it merits. The tide simply hasn't turned to stop Brexit from happening.
    as dd said we need a no deal brexit, and we will do whatever needs doing to get it through parliment


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