Brexit discussion thread III

Imreoir2 · 26-06-2018 10:17am

Nody wrote: »

First of all there will be no issues with food or fuel; in fact any imports is the easiest thing for UK to get done because they set the rules and will simply let the trucks rolling in without checks; some speciality items such as radio active materials etc. not included.

Except of course that it is not a one sided border. The UK can throw open its border, but that does not mean that the EU will.

Zubeneschamali · 26-06-2018 10:21am

Nody wrote: »

A WTO dispute easily takes over a decade to resolve esp. if you start counter filling BS disputes about unfair trade advantage as reason; they can run it for years before having to deal with the consequences of it which by the time will be another government's problem anyway and they would/should have been able to stabilize the situation by then.

But at the very same time they will be starting the process of moving to WTO terms with all sorts of countries that they currently trade with as part of the EU. No way will they get WTO approval to trade while flagrantly breaching WTO rules under everyone's nose.

Peregrinus · 26-06-2018 10:22am

J Mysterio wrote: »

Investment in UK car industry halves as Brexit uncertainty bites

New figures released weeks after CBI warned motor sector faces 'extinction' if Britain leaves customs union

"Investment in the UK motor industry has halved in the first half of 2018, as uncertainty about the future post-Brexit hits spending, according to the latest research from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders(SMMT).

... In the first six months of this year, the SMMT reported that investment has “stalled”, with just £347.3m earmarked for new models, equipment and facilities in the UK, which is around half the sum announced in the same period last year."

. . . which in turn was only about 60% of the figure for the year before, which was about 60% of the figure for the year before that.

Car industry production investment has been on a steady downward track since 2015:

2015: £2.5 billion
2016: £1.6 billion
2017: £1.1 billion
2018 (first half): £0.347 billion

There's a pattern here, people.

sink · 26-06-2018 10:22am

Peregrinus wrote: »

Is this illegal under WTO rules? As long as they apply zero tariffs/zero regulatory requirements to imports from every country equally, what WTO rule do they break?

mickoneill31 make the point that such a strategy pretty much puts the kibosh on any notion of negotiating attractive trade deals, and he's quite right - it's hard to bargain when you have conceded every thing up front. But would it actually infringe WTO rules?

The farmers will literally block the ports with tractors if that ever happens. Why wouldn't they? At that point they're looking at a total wipe out. Their choice will be starvation, sell up or to sign a contract with an American agri-conglomerate, where they re mortgage the farm to re-invest in gm-crops/factory-farming with all profits going to the corporation and they hope to be able scrape enough out of the bottom of the barrel to eat every week.

I don't think the British public are as complacent as a lot of you are making out. They have history of striking and rioting when the chips are down. In a no-deal scenario it won't take very long for it to kick off.

Nody · 26-06-2018 10:28am

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

But at the very same time they will be starting the process of moving to WTO terms with all sorts of countries that they currently trade with as part of the EU. No way will they get WTO approval to trade while flagrantly breaching WTO rules under everyone's nose.

Once again short term vs long term issues; I fully agree that it will cause them a heck of a lot of problems down the line but I'm under no illusions what the government would choose either.

VinLieger · 26-06-2018 10:31am

Peregrinus wrote: »

. . . which in turn was only about 60% of the figure for the year before, which was about 60% of the figure for the year before that.

Car industry production investment has been on a steady downward track since 2015:

2015: £2.5 billion
2016: £1.6 billion
2017: £1.1 billion
2018 (first half): £0.347 billion

There's a pattern here, people.

Hmm is it possible that something happened in 2016........

Leroy42 · 26-06-2018 10:32am

J Mysterio wrote: »

I work in Brussels alongside the EU Brexit negotiators and I find it incredible how little the UK government understands

Are we really being serious when we ask the EU to give the UK, as a third country, the same level of access as a member to sensitive information like satellite development and criminal databases?

"Being an MEP is a bit like being a DHL package: no sooner have I arrived in Brussels for meetings with businesses, NGOs and sometimes bigwigs like Guy Verhofstadt (the European parliament Brexit coordinator), than I’m being shipped off again to London for marches, rallies and occasionally some rest in my garden in Oxford (very occasionally). Being shipped back and forth across the English Channel isn’t always easy – but it does give you some great perspective on Brexit.

Everyone I meet, wherever I am these days, asks me the same thing: “What are the Brits doing?” Even Brits ask me what we’re doing. And I wish I knew what we were doing, I really do. The trouble is that all we’ve received from the British government in the last year and a half has been overused slogans, half-baked threats and undercooked plans. Just one thing has been resoundingly clear from the government: Brexit means Brexit"

Catherine Bearder UK MEP - Independent UK

Think that article touches on some of the main problems, that being that the UK simply don't understand exactly what Brexit really means.

Comments on articles are not usually any good, but this but from one I thought was good

I think part of the problem is that very few really knew what ingredients made up the cake. Many of the things we are now being told the UK will lose were never considered.
The matter is far too complex for a referendum but if it were to happen the whole thing should have been two phase.
Referendum question 1, 'should the government examine the consequences of leaving the EU' Referendum question 2 after perhaps years of work 'here are the consequences, do you want to leave'.

Now of course that all academic at this point, they did hold a ref and voted, but it is pretty clear to me that few people really understood what they were voting for. I don't mean that in a "leavers are all idiots" POV, but rather than the EU is such a complicated animal, there is such massive complexity within it. Even the great "take back our laws" very quickly became "simply change all the laws from saying EU to UK and leave them as they are and we can think about that later". Although I agree that doesn't fit aas easily on a t-shirt of side of a bus!

And I think that is what will be the breaking of all this. At the moment Brexit is still and idea, one that many people in the UK are fed up with hearing about. "Just get on with it" is a cry you hear again and again. But ask them what that means and the most you'll get its "Get on with leaving".

But what about the freedom to travel. Well, yeah for holidays obviously. And healthcare, well again, expats should get that. And control of ports? Simply let them be open? But doesn't that hinder stopping foreigners coming in? Yeah but we don't give them jobs and money or houses so they will simply go back?

They want everything to remain the same, but things to be different. Many, and I include myself and I would guess everyone but the most focused on EU individuals, simply have no idea as to the range of things that will be effected.

But when Brexit becomes a reality, when visas are required, when Johnny can't work in France over the summer, when Lukasz can't work in the UK over the summer. When their are 5 hour queue to get on an off ferries. When they have to stand in line with non-EU at airport passport control and watch EU citizens from the same plane simply stroll through passport control. That's when the reality is going to hit. Talk about Airbus and BMW, CoL banks etc. It doesn't mean much to the majority of people, can be passed off as "not my problem". Like in all politics, its the little things that trip you up.

Zubeneschamali · 26-06-2018 10:34am

Nody wrote: »

Once again short term vs long term issues; I fully agree that it will cause them a heck of a lot of problems down the line but I'm under no illusions what the government would choose either.

So they throw open the ports and airports to unrestricted imports while scuppering their chances of ever exporting anything to a WTO country short term, negotiating any trade deal with anyone ever, or having anything left to export long term.

This would end even worse than my worst predictions.

Leroy42 · 26-06-2018 10:39am

He is not saying they should, he is saying that to deal with the short term they will.

Imreoir2 · 26-06-2018 10:45am

VinLieger wrote: »

Hmm is it possible that something happened in 2016........

Hush now, stop looking at information and just quietly whisper "Brexit Dividend" to yourself, like a good chap.

Zubeneschamali · 26-06-2018 10:46am

Leroy42 wrote: »

He is not saying they should, he is saying that to deal with the short term they will.

Well, to avoid calling in the UN to supply food aid, maybe they would have to.

Which is exactly why they really cannot crash out - they will have to fold at the last minute and accept:

a) a Canada deal with
b) special status for NI and
c) a border in the Irish Sea

The utter destruction of English farming and manufacturing just to keep food on the shelves is not a realistic alternative.

mickoneill31 · 26-06-2018 10:47am

Leroy42 wrote: »

Think that article touches on some of the main problems, that being that the UK simply don't understand exactly what Brexit really means.

Were you not paying attention for the first 6 months after the referendum?
Brexit means Brexit.

Seth Brundle · 26-06-2018 10:57am

Just checking, what happens if the UK exit without a deal but don't put up a border?
Will the EU/Irl have to put one up?

Also, I don't want to make assumptions but has the EU promised that any UK residents can live and work in Europe without the requirement for a visa? How will that affect NI residents (both with an Irish and a UK passport)?

Imreoir2 · 26-06-2018 11:08am

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Just checking, what happens if the UK exit without a deal but don't put up a border?
Will the EU/Irl have to put one up?

Also, I don't want to make assumptions but has the EU promised that any UK residents can live and work in Europe without the requirement for a visa? How will that affect NI residents (both with an Irish and a UK passport)?

Yes, the default position in a no-deal scenario is a hard border. In reality it will be impossible to effectively police the border, but the border will still have to be put in place. The EU is already warning member states to increase capacity so that they can deal with the increased workload at borders and airports in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

No deal means no deal, most EU countries will probably unilaterally choose to issue UK citizens already in the country with some from of work/residency rights as no one wants to have to deal with rounding them up and deporting them all, but there would be noting compelling them to do so. UK citizens wishing to go to an EU state after Brexit will probably need to apply for a visa.

LeinsterDub · 26-06-2018 11:10am

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Just checking, what happens if the UK exit without a deal but don't put up a border?
Will the EU/Irl have to put one up?

Yes as we'll not trade on WTO tariffs

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Also, I don't want to make assumptions but has the EU promised that any UK residents can live and work in Europe without the requirement for a visa? How will that affect NI residents (both with an Irish and a UK passport)?

No they'll be citizen of a 3rd country . One with on residency rights or the right to work. People in the North with and Irish passport will be EU citizen and unaffected, those in the North with a British passport will be British and will have the above applied to them until such time as they can an Irish passport.

Leroy42 · 26-06-2018 11:13am

LeinsterDub wrote: »

No they'll be citizen of a 3rd country . One with on residency rights or the right to work. People in the North with and Irish passport will be EU citizen and unaffected, those in the North with a British passport will be British and will have the above applied to them until such time as they can an Irish passport.

That could very well prove to be quite a sticky point after Brexit happens. Basically certain citizens of the UK will, depending on the outcome of Brexit, have more rights that other citizens.

How can the UK government stand over that? And will the DUP, since they want to be treated exactly the same as the rest of the UK, demand that NI citizens now lose this right (to dual citizenship).

If I was a person living in Manchester (or wherever in Britain) I would see it as deeply unfair that people in NI have these greater rights.

mickoneill31 · 26-06-2018 11:13am

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Yes as we'll not trade on WTO tariffs

No they'll be citizen of a 3rd country . One with on residency rights or the right to work. People in the North with and Irish passport will be EU citizen and unaffected, those in the North with a British passport will be British and will have the above applied to them until such time as they can an Irish passport.

I've heard that some countries are looking at giving their UK expats residency. However many people (they're not all retirees) who move to Europe live in one country and work in another. That won't help them.

Imreoir2 · 26-06-2018 11:17am

mickoneill31 wrote: »

I've heard that some countries are looking at giving their UK expats residency. However many people (they're not all retirees) who move to Europe live in one country and work in another. That won't help them.

There may be a possibility that the EU parliament will propose to allow British citizens to apply to keep their EU citizenship on an individual basis. There is a case making its way through the European courts at the moment considering the question if EU citizenship is tied to member state citizenship or if it belongs to each citizen independent of their member state citizenship.

Zubeneschamali · 26-06-2018 11:24am

I see some Twitter excitement about a UBS survey of companies plans in the UK:
https://twitter.com/peter_tl/status/1011531361264513024

J Mysterio · 26-06-2018 11:27am

NHS - in crisis
Military/ MOD - in crisis
Financial/ City - in crisis
Transport - trains/ planes - in crisis
Car Industry - in crisis
Fruit pickers- in crisis
Scotland tourism- in crisis

Etc. Etc.

Everywhere you look, things are getting worse, and this is only the beginning.

Imreoir2 · 26-06-2018 11:36am

You kinda have to admire the pure pig headed refusal to change tack of the people who still say it's all "Project Fear" and that everything will be fine.

Peregrinus · 26-06-2018 11:51am

Imreoir2 wrote: »

There may be a possibility that the EU parliament will propose to allow British citizens to apply to keep their EU citizenship on an individual basis. There is a case making its way through the European courts at the moment considering the question if EU citizenship is tied to member state citizenship or if it belongs to each citizen independent of their member state citizenship.

It would require an amendment to the EU Treaties, as far as I can see, since these firmly link EU citizenship with citizenship of a member state. And that (a) takes time, and (b) requires unanimous agreement by all member states.

Mezcita · 26-06-2018 11:56am

J Mysterio wrote: »

NHS - in crisis
Military/ MOD - in crisis
Financial/ City - in crisis
Transport - trains/ planes - in crisis
Car Industry - in crisis
Fruit pickers- in crisis
Scotland tourism- in crisis

Etc. Etc.

Everywhere you look, things are getting worse, and this is only the beginning.

Thing is that over here none of that has hit home yet. The average punter is probably more concerned with England's progress in the World Cup. That's why I'm now a full hard Brexit advocate. It's going to hurt like hell but it's genuinely the only way that people will see sense here.

Roll on the 29th of March.

Leroy42 · 26-06-2018 12:05pm

I can't really see how there won't be a hard brexit. TM and the government have continued to paint themselves into a ever smaller corner. Why fight so hard against the amendment unless they realistically saw a no-deal as a real possibility? There was nothing to be gained by it.

The fact that TM was failed to deliver the White Paper prior to the June summit tells you everything. They are either not taking this seriously, or they are and have no real answers. Either of these does not bode well for a deal.

There is a quite a sizeable amount of the UK public who really don't see a border in NI as an issue. Either put one up, get rid of NI, doesn't matter but deliver Brexit.

And even if we somehow avoid a hard brexit, which at this point will solely be done to the EU doing whatever is required as the UK seem unable to cope, then I fear that the hard Brexiteers will simply use this to drive for even harder deal. Any problems the UK does encounter will be done to the deal that was struck.

But I have little faith in any deal actually getting through parliament.

Zubeneschamali · 26-06-2018 12:09pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

TM and the government have continued to paint themselves into a ever smaller corner. Why fight so hard against the amendment unless they realistically saw a no-deal as a real possibility? There was nothing to be gained by it.

Yes there was: another week, another month in #10.

If they told the truth from the outset, the Brexit wing would have rebelled and brought them down. So they waffle and play for time. Eventually, time will be up and the UK will face the choice of becoming a Mad Max wasteland or accepting a deal offered by the EU.

They will accept the deal, and it will be too late for the Brexiteers to do anything about it.

First Up · 26-06-2018 12:25pm

Mezcita wrote: »

Thing is that over here none of that has hit home yet. The average punter is probably more concerned with England's progress in the World Cup. That's why I'm now a full hard Brexit advocate. It's going to hurt like hell but it's genuinely the only way that people will see sense here.

Roll on the 29th of March.

The average punter may be ignorant and unaware but the government is getting it with both barrels on a daily basis from the CBI and various captains of industry.
Boris may well say F**** business but I don't think he will get away with that for long.

EdgeCase · 26-06-2018 1:14pm

The line I'm getting from people in England is that it's all a lot or nonsense and everything will be completely fine and that the UK should walk away from the table (which they seem to think is for some reason a major threat...)

There are also widespread notions that the current company statements about risks are just some kind of fear mongering.

I think you've got to put yourself into the bubble of someone who vaguely reads the tabloids, has very little awareness of what's beyond the UK other than perhaps having been to a few tacky Spanish resorts full of people from the UK.

For the most part they've no idea what they're risking.

Then to make it worse, many have Brexit fatigue and seem to not want to hear any more about the subject - many of those have the "oh let's just get on with it" attitude.

Mezcita · 26-06-2018 1:23pm

First Up wrote: »

The average punter may be ignorant and unaware but the government is getting it with both barrels on a daily basis from the CBI and various captains of industry.
Boris may well say F**** business but I don't think he will get away with that for long.

Just need to ramp up the propaganda machine then. Been working for decades for them. Project the (totally reasonable) concerns from business as being Project Fear/ Remoaner nonsense. Once they crash out they can pin the blame on the EU for not giving them the ultimate dream deal.

As J Mysterio pointed out the wheels are starting to come off across multiple different areas. But the media can just either choose to ignore it or not give it the coverage it merits. The tide simply hasn't turned to stop Brexit from happening.

Imreoir2 · 26-06-2018 1:33pm

Mezcita wrote: »

Just need to ramp up the propaganda machine then. Been working for decades for them. Project the (totally reasonable) concerns from business as being Project Fear/ Remoaner nonsense. Once they crash out they can pin the blame on the EU for not giving them the ultimate dream deal.

As J Mysterio pointed out the wheels are starting to come off across multiple different areas. But the media can just either choose to ignore it or not give it the coverage it merits. The tide simply hasn't turned to stop Brexit from happening.

I don't hold much hope at this stage that hard brexit can be avoided. But I do hope that when it happens, it will cause enough of a shock to the UK system that it drives some momentum behind those working to beat back the brexiteers. Lets not forget that there was never a wide margin of support for Brexit in the first place and its lead has been shrinking not growing. Faced with the reality of Brexit, it only needs a very small swing to get the majority behind a sensible deal.

EdgeCase · 26-06-2018 1:47pm

Just to follow on on my previous post (a few back).

One of the conversations I had over in England really left me wondering about what's going on. I was talking to a guy in his early 20s who told me that he'd never voted in any elections, but had voted for Brexit. Then he assured me that he would never vote in any elections in future either as he felt it was pointless and that Brexit was the only thing that could make a big change.

He told me about how he was struggling to make ends meet because his wages weren't keeping pace with inflation. Then that his parents were in unstable employment and had no prospect of pensions and his grandmother had been "messed around" by the bedroom tax and that the establishment considered him to be a 'chav' and he had no future. He went on to say that things for him were dire and he couldn't see how Brexit could possibly make them any worse.

It's an odd, odd time over there and I think they're completely underestimating the underlying problems that were bubbling up when they London (and other cities) riots kicked off back in 2011 and were more or less ignored as 'a bunch of malcontents' by BOTH mainstream parties and were utterly dismissed by the vast majority of the media.

They did no analysis, no digging, no thinking .. nothing.

I still think there's a massive element of Brexit that's a snap back at things like affordability of housing, a perception of declining living standards and opportunity and stripping back of social services and things like access to university education.

You've seen a relatively rapid unpicking of a lot of the structures that were keeping Britain less unequal than it is now. The social cohesion has been chipped away at by the Tories, but also by an element of Labour too in the post-Blair era and in the aftermath of 2008.

It's something Ireland would also want to learn from. Failing to tackle the housing crisis here and "us vs them" politics talking about people in bad circumstances as 'lazy' and so on will lead to all the same problems if we're not careful.
I don't think we are quite as bad as at least there's a debate here about many of those social issues, even if the government doesn't really respond very effectively (particularly in housing), but you could easily see Ireland sliding into that mess very rapidly if things aren't copped onto soon.

The ever-increasing costs relative to income are just creating a lot of disgruntled people who are basically the 'working poor'.

I think though all of that has fed into Brexit in the UK. It's not as simple as the tabloids would have you believe.

What worries me a *lot* is what do people like this guy do when Brexit happens and delivers even more austerity and the Tories' wet dream of funnelling resources into elites?