Brexit discussion thread III

Enzokk · 25-06-2018 10:17PM

Let me add another story to the echo chamber.

BMW warns Brexit could force UK plant closures

In the starkest statement yet by BMW over the future of its UK operations, customs manager Stephan Freismuth said delays in importing components would seriously affect its British facilities, which include the flagship plant making the Mini.

“We always said we can do our best and prepare everything, but if at the end of the day the supply chain will have a stop at the border, then we cannot produce our products in the UK,” he added.

BMW’s warning comes days after Airbus said the European aircraft maker would be forced to leave the UK if Brexit leads to its operations becoming uncompetitive.

So in the past few days we have had Airbus warning they would walk if Brexit makes it more costly for them to produce components. Then cabinet ministers including Jeremy Hunt told them to be quiet and leave the discussions to the big boys in the room. Now you have BMW warning the same thing as well.

Added to this we have the US repeating warnings that unless the UK leaves EU rules they will not get a trade deal. But that would mean no EU companies would produce components in the UK as red tape would increase. But they will have a US trade deal.

Gerry T · 25-06-2018 10:25PM

trellheim wrote:

This is somewhat of a misunderstanding. Clock is ticking. With no decision, UK is out in March 2019 without a deal. Quite a lot of people in the UK want this as it means no transition timeframe and no 39 billion payment.

I'm not so sure about the 39b. As just mentioned it's for on going commitments so should be paid. Yes the UK might say their not paying and if they crash out the EU can't force them to pay...or can they. With a crash out the EU could impose sanctions, higher tariffs etc until the UK volunteered the 39b. So in principal the 39b would not be forthcoming in a crash out scenario but in practice I'm getting it would be paid.

Imreoir2 · 25-06-2018 10:25PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Let me add another story to the echo chamber.

BMW warns Brexit could force UK plant closures

So in the past few days we have had Airbus warning they would walk if Brexit makes it more costly for them to produce components. Then cabinet ministers including Jeremy Hunt told them to be quiet and leave the discussions to the big boys in the room. Now you have BMW warning the same thing as well.

Added to this we have the US repeating warnings that unless the UK leaves EU rules they will not get a trade deal. But that would mean no EU companies would produce components in the UK as red tape would increase. But they will have a US trade deal.

US tells UK to make itself very desperate as a pre-condition to agreeing a trade deal? I'm sure that would end well for the UK.

Trasna1 · 25-06-2018 10:26PM

trellheim wrote: »

This is somewhat of a misunderstanding. Clock is ticking. With no decision, UK is out in March 2019 without a deal. Quite a lot of people in the UK want this as it means no transition timeframe and no 39 billion payment.

Quite a lot of people in the UK DO want a deal - but its open warfare internally ; this suits the people who want straight out, so they are egging on the warfare ( ever thought the chaos is for a reason ? )

BTW no deal is currently the most plausible - no-one can see any set of options that works at the moment, and any kind of brokerage the USA might do to knock heads together is impossible given their toxic politics at the moment. No deal means IRL is up the creek.

The whole world is up the creek. No deal will trigger a global recession.

That said that there was an interesting article in the FT today, where the hard brexiteers very feeling like being slowly boiled toads - that the Brexit May will eventually deliver will see the UK remain in the customs union, and in the single market for goods but not services, paying an annual contribution to the budget and accepting a form of freedom of movement.

If this is colour of the eventual deal then the EU will clearly be the big winner as ithe EU has a huge surplus in goods but not services with the UK.

listermint · 25-06-2018 10:29PM

Trasna1 wrote: »

The whole world is up the creek. No deal will trigger a global recession.

That said that there was an interesting article in the FT today, where the hard brexiteers very feeling like being slowly boiled toads - that the Brexit May will eventually deliver will see the UK remain in the customs union, and in the single market for goods but not services, paying an annual contribution to the budget and accepting a form of freedom of movement.

If this is colour of the eventual deal then the EU will clearly be the big winner as ithe EU has a huge surplus in goods but not services with the UK.

No deal will trigger a global recession....

Ok go on give us some details

Imreoir2 · 25-06-2018 10:31PM

Trasna1 wrote: »

The whole world is up the creek. No deal will trigger a global recession.

That said that there was an interesting article in the FT today, where the hard brexiteers very feeling like being slowly boiled toads - that the Brexit May will eventually deliver will see the UK remain in the customs union, and in the single market for goods but not services, paying an annual contribution to the budget and accepting a form of freedom of movement.

If this is colour of the eventual deal then the EU will clearly be the big winner as ithe EU has a huge surplus in goods but not services with the UK.

I can't see a no-deal scenario lasting very long. It would cause a GE in the UK and given the chaos there will be, you would expect getting a deal to be one of the main election issues. If the UK can't accept the EU's offer before March 2019, I think they will accept it before March 2020.

An Ciarraioch · 25-06-2018 10:36PM

There won't be any UK proposal on the Border until "next month", if even then:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-northern-ireland-border-eu-uk-brussels-backstop-karen-bradley-a8416326.html?amp&__twitter_impression=true

Nody · 25-06-2018 11:00PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I can't see a no-deal scenario lasting very long. It would cause a GE in the UK and given the chaos there will be, you would expect getting a deal to be one of the main election issues. If the UK can't accept the EU's offer before March 2019, I think they will accept it before March 2020.

Who prey tell are going to accept the deal? Corbyn who thinks he can get the unicorn deal Tories are crowing about (not in the CU or Single Market but unhindered trade somehow)? The Lib Dems (the turn out in the last GE is anything to go by the voters still have not forgiven them)? The Tories (or what's left of them)? What party and party leader is suppose to accept this new deal?

Now for the reason of argument let's say somehow there is a new magical party that do arise for the GE from the magic mushroom forest to contest it, what deal exactly do you expect EU to offer? This is after UK has crashed out and proven about as reliable as your average Irish driver coming from the pub on a Friday after all. A generic Canada FTA will not save the economy so do you expect EU to offer up a membership in the CU & SM again for them? For what reason?

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

There won't be any UK proposal on the Border until "next month", if even then:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-northern-ireland-border-eu-uk-brussels-backstop-karen-bradley-a8416326.html?amp&__twitter_impression=true

We already know that what ever fudged vision will be presented will be something that a) will not work in reality and b) be about as heavy on details as May's promises are in general are; i.e. useless and a waste of ink and paper. It will be a hodge podge Max Fact tech solution with some mix of their "we collect tariffs on behalf of EU" which is intended to sell her solution to the Tories to not rip the party asunder. The fact the solution has already been rejected by all relevant parties does not matter in UK because if you repeat it often enough EU will suddenly see the light of the brilliance of the idea or something.

trellheim · 25-06-2018 11:08PM

We already know that what ever fudged vision will be presented will be something that a) will not work in reality and b) be about as heavy on details as May's promises are in general are; i.e. useless and a waste of ink and paper. It will be a hodge podge Max Fact tech solution with some mix of their "we collect tariffs on behalf of EU" which is intended to sell her solution to the Tories to not rip the party asunder. The fact the solution has already been rejected by all relevant parties does not matter in UK because if you repeat it often enough EU will suddenly see the light of the brilliance of the idea or something.

Personally I think you are right but are not judging it for what it is - the only way to survive in British politics; its not for a wider audience

McGiver · 26-06-2018 12:24AM

Deleted User wrote: »

McGiver wrote: »

A sly arrogant sneering fox.

His reasoning is correct but he is being either ignorant or manipulative and so missing few very important points.

I don't think it is in the slightest.. On a forum, he'd rightly be accused of whataboutery. What confuses me in that the WTO wasn't brought up to shut him up.

I should have said seemingly correct. Of course, it's obvious it's an utter BS when subjected to even simple scrutiny.

McGiver · 26-06-2018 12:36AM

VinLieger wrote: »

Gotta love all that sovereignty brexit will bring back

https://www.politicshome.com/news/world/united-states/news/96258/senior-us-republican-paul-ryan-warns-uk-%E2%80%98must-diverge-eu-rules

This is all what Brexit is about. From US Trojan horse in the EU, the UK will move to an outright US satellite off the EU shore. Total deregulation and move to a full corporatism i.e. fascism a la US - corporations fully control the government and draft all legislation solely to defend & increase their profits. Did the "Labour heartland" voters vote for this? Hardly.

sink · 26-06-2018 12:41AM

Nody wrote: »

Who prey tell are going to accept the deal? Corbyn who thinks he can get the unicorn deal Tories are crowing about (not in the CU or Single Market but unhindered trade somehow)? The Lib Dems (the turn out in the last GE is anything to go by the voters still have not forgiven them)? The Tories (or what's left of them)? What party and party leader is suppose to accept this new deal?

Now for the reason of argument let's say somehow there is a new magical party that do arise for the GE from the magic mushroom forest to contest it, what deal exactly do you expect EU to offer? This is after UK has crashed out and proven about as reliable as your average Irish driver coming from the pub on a Friday after all. A generic Canada FTA will not save the economy so do you expect EU to offer up a membership in the CU & SM again for them? For what reason?

I don't expect a new party, just the same old ones. When the world the brexiteers have been promising turns out to be a mirage, the public will not be so daft as to drink the sand. The first thing they will do is kill the leaders who led them into a desert and then look for new leaders who promise to lead them back to water.

There is still a large contingent of pro-EU MP's of all parties with enough public supporter from which to grow a new popular movement. The majority of the rest of them will change their support to follow the popular movement and make you believe they always held their current popular opinion as a core principle of their beliefs.

Corbyn is not so principled as he would have you believe, if he was, he would have campaigned for leave. He will do what it takes to gain power and has been shifting his position with the wind. If there is genuine popular support for CU/EEA membership he will offer it.

The EU will certainly be willing to offer the UK a CU/EEA deal, whereby the UK follows all the rules the EU sets. Without the UK at the top table pushing against them, it will be a total victory for the EU. All of the benefits of unhindered access to the UK market without the political interference. Why wouldn't they offer that deal in the future? They're doing so now with both hands.

I don't imagine the UK will be willing to abide by this arrangement for very long and will be looking to apply for full membership and to regain their seat at the top table, but it will take a decade to claw their way back in and they will never get back all the perks the had before.

McGiver · 26-06-2018 12:58AM

sink wrote: »

Nody wrote: »

Who prey tell are going to accept the deal? Corbyn who thinks he can get the unicorn deal Tories are crowing about (not in the CU or Single Market but unhindered trade somehow)? The Lib Dems (the turn out in the last GE is anything to go by the voters still have not forgiven them)? The Tories (or what's left of them)? What party and party leader is suppose to accept this new deal?

Now for the reason of argument let's say somehow there is a new magical party that do arise for the GE from the magic mushroom forest to contest it, what deal exactly do you expect EU to offer? This is after UK has crashed out and proven about as reliable as your average Irish driver coming from the pub on a Friday after all. A generic Canada FTA will not save the economy so do you expect EU to offer up a membership in the CU & SM again for them? For what reason?

I don't expect a new party, just the same old ones. When the world the brexiteers have been promising turns out to be a mirage, the public will not be so daft as to drink the sand. The first thing they will do is kill the leaders who led them into a desert and then look for new leaders who promise to lead them back to water.

There is still a large contingent of pro-EU MP's of all parties with enough public supporter from which to grow a new popular movement. The majority of the rest of them will change their support to follow the popular movement and make you believe they always held their current popular opinion as a core principle of their beliefs.

Corbyn is not so principled as he would have you believe, if he was, he would have campaigned for leave. He will do what it takes to gain power and has been shifting his position with the wind. If there is genuine popular support for CU/EEA membership he will offer it.

The EU will certainly be willing to offer the UK a CU/EEA deal, whereby the UK follows all the rules the EU sets. Without the UK at the top table pushing against them, it will be a total victory for the EU. All of the benefits of unhindered access to the UK market without the political interference. Why wouldn't they offer that deal in the future? They're doing so now with both hands.

I don't imagine the UK will be willing to abide by this arrangement for very long and will be looking to apply for full membership and to regain their seat at the top table, but it will take a decade to claw their way back in and they will never get back all the perks the had before.

Don't think so. I think they will crash out. Quickly cook an extremely unfavourable FTA with the US, which will get them tied to the US and after that they won't be able to even think about the EEA then as they for sure won't cancel the FTA with the US. End of story.

J Mysterio · 26-06-2018 02:01AM

trellheim wrote: »

This is somewhat of a misunderstanding. Clock is ticking. With no decision, UK is out in March 2019 without a deal. Quite a lot of people in the UK want this as it means no transition timeframe and no 39 billion payment.

Quite a lot of people in the UK DO want a deal - but its open warfare internally ; this suits the people who want straight out, so they are egging on the warfare ( ever thought the chaos is for a reason ? )

BTW no deal is currently the most plausible - no-one can see any set of options that works at the moment, and any kind of brokerage the USA might do to knock heads together is impossible given their toxic politics at the moment. No deal means IRL is up the creek.

No deal is significantly worse for the UK. It will be tough for Ireland too, but at least - while they garner scorn and contempt- we gain significant goodwill in the EU, and globally, as we rally to Europe and fight being screwed over again by the British. The world knows Irelands history and, for the most part, people have sympathy with that story and have a warm regard to Ireland.

We also become the only English speaking country in the EU, the common language of business worldwide. We are also nicely perched as an Atlantic bridge between the Continent and the US, and are a burgeoning finance/ tech hub.

An open, outward looking country, looking to work with others, rather than shut ourselves off to suit ourselves (UK) or.seek to simply dominate others (US). A safe, reliable, business friendly country with nice people and moderate but but steadily progressive politics.

Peregrinus · 26-06-2018 04:59AM

trellheim wrote: »

This is somewhat of a misunderstanding. Clock is ticking. With no decision, UK is out in March 2019 without a deal. Quite a lot of people in the UK want this as it means no transition timeframe and no 39 billion payment.

Quite a lot of people in the UK DO want a deal - but its open warfare internally ; this suits the people who want straight out, so they are egging on the warfare ( ever thought the chaos is for a reason ? )

BTW no deal is currently the most plausible - no-one can see any set of options that works at the moment, and any kind of brokerage the USA might do to knock heads together is impossible given their toxic politics at the moment. No deal means IRL is up the creek.

No deal is a really bad state of affairs for Ireland. But it's not a stable end-state. If the UK crashes out in March 2019 it will still need a deal with the EU, and the UK's pain will continue until they get a deal with the EU, and sooner or later - probably sooner - there will be a UK government in office prepared to make a deal with the EU.

So "no deal is better than a bad deal", to coin a phrase. A bad deal is one which results in a hard border in Ireland, because that's an enduring, permanent hard border, as opposed to the temporary, transient hard border which results from a crash-out Brexit.

Zubeneschamali · 26-06-2018 08:28AM

McGiver wrote: »

Quickly cook an extremely unfavourable FTA with the US, which will get them tied to the US and after that they won't be able to even think about the EEA then as they for sure won't cancel the FTA with the US. End of story.

That is all possible, but it won't be the end of the story. This would bring about a crushing recession, mass unemployment, trade disruption meaning food and fuel shortages, sterling devaluation meaning spiraling inflation...

It would be impossible for any British Government to preside over such a disaster for many years. The next Government in would have as their top priority fixing their broken relationship with Europe.

mickoneill31 · 26-06-2018 08:30AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

No deal is a really bad state of affairs for Ireland. But it's not a stable end-state. If the UK crashes out in March 2019 it will still need a deal with the EU, and the UK's pain will continue until they get a deal with the EU, and sooner or later - probably sooner - there will be a UK government in office prepared to make a deal with the EU.

So "no deal is better than a bad deal", to coin a phrase. A bad deal is one which results in a hard border in Ireland, because that's an enduring, permanent hard border, as opposed to the temporary, transient hard border which results from a crash-out Brexit.

How long would you see that "no deal" scenario remaining for? It's not months.

After a March 29th with no deal, the UK would have no negotiating power. They'd be desperate. Other countries (including the EU) wouldn't and shouldn't give them favourable deals. The US certainly won't, they'd bleed them dry.

And these deals will take years. Several, if the examples of previous trade deals are anything to go by.
It might be transient and it may get resolved in X years but those X years would be catastrophic for the UK. I put X there as that'd be a point for debate. Personally, I'd guess at X being 10.

You say it'd be "probably sooner" for a deal if they crashed out.
Look at their negotiating skills so far when they do have some control of the process. Brexit was voted for 2 years ago and today, the UK still can't agree on what it wants. Now the EU really wants to negotiate. After "no deal" we will be busy mitigating the damage and moving on. The Tories will be arguing with themselves and Labour will be naval gazing.
Although it could be "probably sooner" as the EU could give take it or leave it type of deals. But then we're back to square one in the UK with "it's all the EUs fault"

Zubeneschamali · 26-06-2018 08:39AM

mickoneill31 wrote: »

Look at their negotiating skills so far when then do have some control of the process.

When they come back in a few years, their negotiating skills be irrelevant, it is their grovelling and begging skills they will need.

(I expect the EU will be generous if it comes to it, but there will be no question of the UK being in any position to negotiate anything).

VinLieger · 26-06-2018 08:43AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

When they come back in a few years, their negotiating skills be irrelevant, it is their grovelling and begging skills they will need.

(I expect the EU will be generous if it comes to it, but there will be no question of the UK being in any position to negotiate anything).

Of course they would be welcomed back, however the issue is they would be starting from scratch and entrance at this stage can potentially take just as long as leaving

Trasna1 · 26-06-2018 08:49AM

listermint wrote: »

No deal will trigger a global recession....

Ok go on give us some details

Because it will generally cause loss of confidence in the system, and losses of confidence lead to stock market crashes, which in turn lead to recessions. The market is at an all time high, so the correction is coming.

If people think that the loss of billions from the value of British companies and the seizing up of London as it gets mired in new financial rules won't cause a global recession then they are mistaken.

mickoneill31 · 26-06-2018 08:50AM

VinLieger wrote: »

Of course they would be welcomed back, however the issue is they would be starting from scratch and entrance at this stage can potentially take just as long as leaving

That's a whole new can of worms. Taking the Euro, no more opt outs, increased fees etc. etc.

Unless there was an exception. But the EU (rightly) doesn't like those. The next third country to negotiate would be looking for exceptions and previous entrants might start looking at their terms.

listermint · 26-06-2018 08:51AM

Trasna1 wrote: »

Because it will generally cause loss of confidence in the system, and losses of confidence lead to stock market crashes, which in turn lead to recessions. The market is at an all time high, so the correction is coming.

If people think that the loss of billions from the value of British companies and the seizing up of London as it gets mired in new financial rules won't cause a global recession then they are mistaken.

Confidence?

Companies are planning on this 2 years out. There's no shock to it. Investors will be pruned to make money on it. This won't trigger a global recession that's nonsense

Zubeneschamali · 26-06-2018 08:51AM

VinLieger wrote: »

Of course they would be welcomed back, however the issue is they would be starting from scratch and entrance at this stage can potentially take just as long as leaving

Oh no, I didn't mean we would let them back into the EU on a fast track.

I just meant we would dictate the terms of a practical Free Trade Agreement to them.

They can join the back of the queue for membership.

Leroy42 · 26-06-2018 08:55AM

What would the the UK expect from any fast track deal with the US?

It seems that one of the main arguments for Brexit is the ability to get 3rd party trade deals. I was always under the impression that being in the EU gave us (the EU) greater power in terms of trade deals not less. Now, of course the requirements f Poland from a trade deal with US would be different to the UK so there is always the possibility that freed from having to compromise with 27 others the UK can focus on what is best for them.

Just wondering, as I have yet to actually see anything but could have missed it, what are the current issues with trade that the UK would be looking to fix in a US, or indeed any other, trade deal?

Peregrinus · 26-06-2018 08:56AM

mickoneill31 wrote: »

How long would you see that "no deal" scenario remaining for? It's not months.

I wouldn’t see this as an all-or-nothing thing; I don’t see the crash-out no deal period being terminated in one bound with a comprehensive bells-and-whistles deal.

Rather, it would be a process, starting more or less immediately with quite focussed, specific agreements to deal, at least provisionally, with urgent matters - keeping planes in the air, ensuring continuance of essential supplies, reciprocally regulating the migration status of UK citizens in the EU and Union citizens in the UK, that kind of thing.

Then, when you’ve stabilised the situation, you get to work on bigger deals - a financial agreement dealing with the financial consequences of Brexit; some confidence-building measures dealing with UK participation (as non-members) in specific programmes. Then you get on to a trading/economic relationship. Perhaps a UK Association Agreement with the EU.

In other words, the process that should be going on right now, but (a) with the UK in a much more straitened situation, and (b) with a saner UK government.

This does require a change of UK government but, frankly, that will happen pretty quickly. Once Brexit actually happens the doctrinaire Brexiters have got what they most want, and have no further use for Teresa May. Everyone else will regard her as having made a complete hames of the Brexit process. She’ll have no support on either side and, politically, she’ll be a dead woman walking. She won’t walk for very long. If the present parliament runs for its full term and Teresa May is still Prime Minister at the end of it, I will buy you a pint.

Where the discussions will actually go with a new PM and/or a new government is hard to say, except we can be confident that they will go towards a deal with the EU (since, really, from a crash-out Brexit, there is no other possible direction). How close the deal will be and how long it will take to get there is harder to say. But I don’t think anything like 10 years. The UK cannot wait that long. The things the EU wants out of the deal - an open border in Ireland; protection for the integrity of the single market, etc - won’t change; why would they?

mickoneill31 wrote: »

Look at their negotiating skills so far when then do have some control of the process. Brexit was voted for 2 years ago and today, the UK still can't agree on what it wants. Now the EU really wants to negotiate. After "no deal" we will be busy mitigating the damage and moving on. The Tories will be arguing with themselves and Labour will be naval gazing.
Although it could be "probably sooner" as the EU could give take it or leave it type of deals. But then we're back to square one in the UK with "it's all the EUs fault"

You say “we will be busy mitigating the damage and moving on” but, actually, the damage to us will be huge, and won’t easily be mitigated, except by a good UK/EU deal. For the same reason that the EU is always going to be the UK’s most important trading partner - geography, basically - the UK will always be ours (after the EU, of course). We suffer really badly if (a) there are trade barriers between us and the UK, and (b) the UK is in a slump; a crash-out Brexit will have both of these effects. Plus, of course, the social and political harm inflicted by a hard border in Ireland can only be mitigated by, well, an open border. And that’s only going to be achieved by an EU/UK deal. If there is a crash-out Brexit, our national priority is going to be getting the UK back to the table.

Nody · 26-06-2018 08:56AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

That is all possible, but it won't be the end of the story. This would bring about a crushing recession, mass unemployment, trade disruption meaning food and fuel shortages, sterling devaluation meaning spiraling inflation...

It would be impossible for any British Government to preside over such a disaster for many years. The next Government in would have as their top priority fixing their broken relationship with Europe.

First of all there will be no issues with food or fuel; in fact any imports is the easiest thing for UK to get done because they set the rules and will simply let the trucks rolling in without checks; some speciality items such as radio active materials etc. not included.

Secondly the mass unemployment will not hit on March 30th; it will be staggered over years, possibly even a full decade. There is a great inertia in business in general and most companies have not moved significant production out of the UK yet. Rather they will simply stop investing in existing lines and they will slowly wither away instead until a small core part at most is left to serve the domestic market. It's going to be a death by a thousand cuts rather than a bullet to the head. Yes you will see the big headline moves such as Airbus etc. but honestly they are not even going to be the tip of the iceberg because the real job losses are those that never got started; the new factory that was not built, the small company that has to cut one person every six months until they go bankrupt etc. Those items will never show up in a headline but that's where the real cost to jobs will be.

Third you forget that not only are the Brexiteer laying the ground work for the pain (short to medium term pain but long term gain is a common mantra) but many Brexiteers inc. people who've been told their job is on the line such as with Airbus still support Brexit because sovereignty. They all expect "it will work out somehow" and they are not alone in that attitude; it's prevalent among many UK businesses as well. Hence cut by a thousand blades as those companies will slowly unwind overtime due to lack of business etc.

sink wrote: »

I don't expect a new party, just the same old ones. When the world the brexiteers have been promising turns out to be a mirage, the public will not be so daft as to drink the sand. The first thing they will do is kill the leaders who led them into a desert and then look for new leaders who promise to lead them back to water.

Except they have done nothing of the sort to date while shown how horrible the outcome will be. People who've been told they will lose their job has still said they support Brexit and are ready to take the pain. That is why I'm stating that this is not a short term pain and things goes back to normal; it will be years during which the Brexiteers will talk about the short term hit, long term gain, all the new wonderful FTAs they are working on etc. so toughen that upper lip and let us get on with it. It will be years before people will start to question the lies they are being told now in preparation for the pain to come and years after that before they will accept that they were actually lied to. The blame game will be that May was a poor leader but under the new Shiny Leader it will be milk and honey in a few years, just give us a chance. And since neither major party have any interest in admitting that they spent the last three decades lying to the public about what EU actually did and supported vs. what they claimed as policy and easy scapegoating there is no real way to turn around the anti EU wave that's running in the UK either.

mickoneill31 · 26-06-2018 08:59AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

What would the the UK expect from any fast track deal with the US?

It seems that one of the main arguments for Brexit is the ability to get 3rd party trade deals. I was always under the impression that being in the EU gave us (the EU) greater power in terms of trade deals not less. Now, of course the requirements f Poland from a trade deal with US would be different to the UK so there is always the possibility that freed from having to compromise with 27 others the UK can focus on what is best for them.

Just wondering, as I have yet to actually see anything but could have missed it, what are the current issues with trade that the UK would be looking to fix in a US, or indeed any other, trade deal?

I think its more that the UK doesn't like negotiating as part of a club. Aspects of a deal that protects fruit from Spain is of no benefit to the UK so they like to focus on the negatives rather on the aspects that benefit the UK. They haven't really thought it through. Yes they'll focus on aspects relevant to them but they'll get worse deals. Maybe some areas will get a boost but I'm not sure which.

Trasna1 · 26-06-2018 09:00AM

mickoneill31 wrote: »

How long would you see that "no deal" scenario remaining for? It's not months.

After a March 29th with no deal, the UK would have no negotiating power. They'd be desperate. Other countries (including the EU) wouldn't and shouldn't give them favourable deals. The US certainly won't, they'd bleed them dry.

And these deals will take years. Several, if the examples of previous trade deals are anything to go by.
It might be transient and it may get resolved in X years but those X years would be catastrophic for the UK. I put X there as that'd be a point for debate. Personally, I'd guess at X being 10.

You say it'd be "probably sooner" for a deal if they crashed out.
Look at their negotiating skills so far when they do have some control of the process. Brexit was voted for 2 years ago and today, the UK still can't agree on what it wants. Now the EU really wants to negotiate. After "no deal" we will be busy mitigating the damage and moving on. The Tories will be arguing with themselves and Labour will be naval gazing.
Although it could be "probably sooner" as the EU could give take it or leave it type of deals. But then we're back to square one in the UK with "it's all the EUs fault"

If no deal results in food and medicine shortages then no deal will last weeks, not months. The EU and other trading blocks would be in a hurry to do a deal as it would be the time when the most advantageous one would be on offer - you extract the best deal when you have your opponent over a barrel, you don't wait for them to recover.

If you have empty shelves and mass layoffs in April, the pragmatists will take control. The reason they haven't yet is that a sudden sharp shock hasn't been delivered to the UK because everyone still expects the UK to abandon its red lines and expects a deal that will facilitate trade in much the same way as today

mickoneill31 · 26-06-2018 09:04AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

I wouldn’t see this as an all-or-nothing thing; I don’t see the crash-out no deal period being terminated in one bound with a comprehensive bells-and-whistles deal....

You say “we will be busy mitigating the damage and moving on” but, actually, the damage to us will be huge, and won’t easily be mitigated, except by a good UK/EU deal. For the same reason that the EU is always going to be the UK’s most important trading partner - geography, basically - the UK will always be ours (after the EU, of course). We suffer really badly if (a) there are trade barriers between us and the UK, and (b) the UK is in a slump; a crash-out Brexit will have both of these effects. Plus, of course, the social and political harm inflicted by a hard border in Ireland can only be mitigated by, well, an open border. And that’s only going to be achieved by an EU/UK deal. If there is a crash-out Brexit, our national priority is going to be getting the UK back to the table.

What you say implies that there is a competent government in the UK. During this process there hasn't really been. Maybe there will be after March but I wouldn't be holding my breath.

I don't doubt that the effect on us is huge. But if there's no deal we have to work on that basis until a new deal comes along. I know Irelands priority will be to get the UK back but that may not be the priority of the other 26 and probably some of them will hinder new UK deals.

mickoneill31 · 26-06-2018 09:05AM

Nody wrote: »

First of all there will be no issues with food or fuel; in fact any imports is the easiest thing for UK to get done because they set the rules and will simply let the trucks rolling in without checks; some speciality items such as radio active materials etc. not included.

How would the WTO like that? The UKs ability to make new deals if that was the case would be non existant, sure we can just roll our goods into the UK as they need them. Actually that'd be great for us, we wouldn't need a deal so in regards to food. Our exports would be doing great. No tariffs and probably able to increase the prices.

Brexit discussion thread III

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