Brexit discussion thread III

Cookie_Monster · 25-06-2018 03:10AM

McGiver wrote: »

And finally - not putting up any border with the only land border the UK actually have? Take back control, right!

There'll be a land border at Gibraltar. Granted it's not the UK itself but it'll still be a relevant border to be enforced depending on the ultimate outcome.

Peregrinus · 25-06-2018 04:10AM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Just to reassure any EU citizens living in the UK about their rights.

Born in the Commonwealth ?
Lived in the UK for the last 60 years ?

British Passport Denied.

Nitpick: Hay was not born in the Commonwealth. He was born in Milford, which is in the Republic, after the Republic had left the Commonwealth.

25-06-2018 05:08AM

McGiver wrote: »

A sly arrogant sneering fox.

His reasoning is correct but he is being either ignorant or manipulative and so missing few very important points.

I don't think it is in the slightest.. On a forum, he'd rightly be accused of whataboutery. What confuses me in that the WTO wasn't brought up to shut him up.

Nody · 25-06-2018 06:25AM

First Up wrote: »

Maybe I'm in a minority but I'm long past caring what is going on in Westminster or Hackney or in the mind of the British electorate.

They are leaving; bye bye and hurry up. My energy is going into how Ireland minimises the damage and maximises the opportunities. We will do that by working with the 25 countries with whom we share membership and by finding ways to help our businesses do business with theirs.

Let the UK go fish.

So which country are you kicking out

(there's 27 countries left once UK leaves)?

Seriously though, I care on a "car crash level" what's going on in general and for my friends over there specifically. I already know a few of them are making plans to move to mainland but not all of them. Secondly the interest is because of all the anti EU parties out there (I'd say they exist in pretty much every country) and see how they fare after Brexit in general.

trellheim · 25-06-2018 10:14AM

With Arlene at the GAA yesterday and Charles/Camilla over, the charm offensive seems to be on ( from both sides - see Juncker/Barnier etc as well )

FrancieBrady · 25-06-2018 10:47AM

trellheim wrote: »

With Arlene at the GAA yesterday and Charles/Camilla over, the charm offensive seems to be on ( from both sides - see Juncker/Barnier etc as well )

I'd have no doubt the DUP have been told by the Tory's to soften their attitude to Dublin.

Enzokk · 25-06-2018 12:18PM

Here is an interesting story about polling and the effects it had on Brexit day. It raises some serious questions for Farage as well, but I doubt he cares as he probably made his money and more on the day. I always found it strange that he was so quick to declare a loss on the night. For someone campaigning his whole life for an outcome he did quickly claim to have lost.

Brexit’s Big Short: How Pollsters Helped Hedge Funds Beat the Crash

Roanmore · 25-06-2018 12:40PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Here is an interesting story about polling and the effects it had on Brexit day. It raises some serious questions for Farage as well, but I doubt he cares as he probably made his money and more on the day. I always found it strange that he was so quick to declare a loss on the night. For someone campaigning his whole life for an outcome he did quickly claim to have lost.

Brexit’s Big Short: How Pollsters Helped Hedge Funds Beat the Crash

Read it earlier, twice he conceded even though he had poll data suggesting the opposite.

EdgeCase · 25-06-2018 02:03PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I'd have no doubt the DUP have been told by the Tory's to soften their attitude to Dublin.

I actually suspect that the DUP is getting a serious amount of pressure to cop on from the NI farming and business communities.

The identity politics of Northern Ireland doesn't always tally very well with attitudes on the ground around practical issues.

When you look at opinion polling on most issues the DUP is very far away from the general consensus of opinion in NI and are increasingly becoming less and less aligned to political reality in the north. Take something like marriage equality. There's a solid >70% in favour of it, yet the DUP blocks. The same kind of things show through on the Irish language.

The majority of NI did not back Brexit. So, if planning a long term career she need to learn a lot about pragmatism and finding a sensible solution to this. She's supposed to be the First Minister (albeit in suspension) rather than just the leader of the DUP. To do that job successfully, she actually has to try to represent Northern Ireland, not just narrow party interests.

She's a choice here - be a real leader and go down in the history books as someone who brought NI together or, have a legacy as the woman who dragged NI back to the past, having bolted its lot to the worst and most incompetent British government in modern history.

I sincerely hope she’s deciding to be bigger than party politics and rise above small minded Tory nonsense.

Right now, by providing the Tories with support, the DUP is actually risking the dissolution of the Union. The hard brexiteers do not care about it and that is supported in polling. They want England out of the EU at all costs, and even if that means UK falls apart, they’re fine with that.

So ironically, the DUP are actually enabling a political movement that could bring about the end of the UK. You’re looking at a future with Scottish independence and NI cut adrift.

Logically speaking, the DUP should attempt to take the moral high ground. Stand up for their own regional economic future, peace and stability and pull the plug on the mess in England.

Charles Babbage · 25-06-2018 02:38PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Yes but we are taking about minimum turnouts so if you had set the minimum at 71% a fairly small boycott could render your example void as only 70% turned out.

I don't get your 58% of a 60 % thing?

Quite simply, a person should not be able to get more advantage by boycotting than by voting. So if a smaller proportion of people vote, but a large proportion of those who vote go one way that should still count.

LeinsterDub · 25-06-2018 03:09PM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Quite simply, a person should not be able to get more advantage by boycotting than by voting. So if a smaller proportion of people vote, but a large proportion of those who vote go one way that should still count.

That's not how a minimum turn out works thought. Perhaps there is a system with this model but it's not a minimum turn out.

trellheim · 25-06-2018 05:09PM

I actually suspect that the DUP is getting a serious amount of pressure to cop on from the NI farming and business communities.

Yes this occurred to me as well. Agriculture is even bigger for them than it is for us due to the lack of diversification outside Belfast. Tony Connelly's excellent book outlines how much of the cross-border trade is agriculture related.

Memnoch · 25-06-2018 05:26PM

EdgeCase wrote: »

Logically speaking, the DUP should attempt to take the moral high ground. Stand up for their own regional economic future, peace and stability and pull the plug on the mess in England.

The DUP have control over the Northern Ireland government through the Tories. Thus they have control of the money coming into the country. They are too busy lining their pockets.

Whatever happens afterwards is irrelevant to those in this position right now as they will be laughing all the way to the bank. Just like the Tories who have no issue burning the UK to the ground. Perfectly matched bedfellows.

VinLieger · 25-06-2018 06:01PM

Gotta love all that sovereignty brexit will bring back

https://www.politicshome.com/news/world/united-states/news/96258/senior-us-republican-paul-ryan-warns-uk-%E2%80%98must-diverge-eu-rules

EdgeCase · 25-06-2018 06:08PM

Well, they seem to be under the deluded impression they can just get some kind of one-way UK-biased, ruled in London, trade deal with the USA. Not only would that be highly unlikely a normal US presidency, but this one is extremely hostile to trade deals and will insist on something biased the other way.

The US is basically having a trade war with *Canada* at the moment. The UK is pretty far down the agenda.

The UK gets to be a rule taker outside the EU, in any negotiation with a major power, it's not just the EU that will insist on compliance with regulations, the US and other big players certainly will too.

Grasp of realty isn't a strong point in Westminster at the moment.

Seth Brundle · 25-06-2018 06:26PM

The IMF are now in on the anti-British conspiracy...

Europe and Ireland must prepare for an influx of financial firms after Brexit, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.

Christine Lagarde said the EU needed to enhance its regulatory and supervisory capacities to cope with the likely influx of firms from London’s financial district.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/lagarde-says-ireland-and-europe-must-be-ready-for-post-brexit-influx-of-financial-firms-1.3542818

WomanSkirtFan8 · 25-06-2018 06:35PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The IMF are now in on the anti-British conspiracy...

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/lagarde-says-ireland-and-europe-must-be-ready-for-post-brexit-influx-of-financial-firms-1.3542818

She's absolutely right in that. But I would have thought that that was a fairly obvious thing right from when the vote happened.

EdgeCase · 25-06-2018 07:18PM

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

She's absolutely right in that. But I would have thought that that was a fairly obvious thing right from when the vote happened.

Except to the deluded who see to think that they can be fully outside the EU, operate a totally different regulatory environment and somehow retain access to the EU financial services market, as if nothing's changed at all.

Apart from the fact it's ludicrous, it's also a proposal that would be very unfair on Wall Street, Hong Kong, Singapore and so on.

Why would London as an external financial centre be given preference over other financial centres for access to the lucrative EU market.

If I were in New York, I'd be pretty annoyed if that were the outcome.

They don't even seem to see that there's a bigger picture than just EU - UK relations in terms of how the EU itself trades with the world and how the UK's going to trade after Brexit.

KingNerolives · 25-06-2018 07:34PM

So when is this bloody white paper coming? Hopefully mentions something about agriculture

trellheim · 25-06-2018 07:41PM

She's absolutely right in that. But I would have thought that that was a fairly obvious thing right from when the vote happened

European Council meeting on brexit among other things tomorrow ; today was foreign ministers and defence. Lagarde was merely throwing a bit of petrol on for tomorrow

UK White paper was supposed to happen before tomorrow's EUCO but may flagged it as for July recently ; this really annoyed the other 27 as it meant they still have no clue what the UK wants out of all this

Seth Brundle · 25-06-2018 07:45PM

trellheim wrote: »

this really annoyed the other 27 as it meant they still have no clue what the UK wants out of all this

But sure the UK doesn't know what it wants!

Nody · 25-06-2018 08:01PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

But sure the UK doesn't know what it wants!

No they know what they want; all the benefits of being in EU while allowed to ignore all laws and treaties of EU and being paid for graciously accepting the deal. The problem comes when minor things such as reality comes knocking on the door and they start to scrambling for the unicorns to save them...

PeadarCo · 25-06-2018 08:29PM

EdgeCase wrote:

They don't even seem to see that there's a bigger picture than just EU - UK relations in terms of how the EU itself trades with the world and how the UK's going to trade after Brexit.

To be fair most of the time they can't see beyond the internal tory war over Europe. Its the battle that kicked off the whole process that brought about Brexit. Until that is resolved and the one smoldering in the Labour Party I doubt you will see any coherent negotiation platform. Sooner or later with the Brexit deadline approaching a decision will have to be made.

Lemming · 25-06-2018 08:44PM

PeadarCo wrote: »

Sooner or later with the Brexit deadline approaching a decision will have to be made.

The question at that point will be whether it's the UK making a decision, or the very real prospect of having it made for them by a - rightly well and truly f*cked off - EU27 wanting rid of the whole debacle.

trellheim · 25-06-2018 08:58PM

The question at that point will be whether it's the UK making a decision, or the very real prospect of having it made for them by a - rightly well and truly f*cked off - EU27 wanting rid of the whole debacle.

This is somewhat of a misunderstanding. Clock is ticking. With no decision, UK is out in March 2019 without a deal. Quite a lot of people in the UK want this as it means no transition timeframe and no 39 billion payment.

Quite a lot of people in the UK DO want a deal - but its open warfare internally ; this suits the people who want straight out, so they are egging on the warfare ( ever thought the chaos is for a reason ? )

BTW no deal is currently the most plausible - no-one can see any set of options that works at the moment, and any kind of brokerage the USA might do to knock heads together is impossible given their toxic politics at the moment. No deal means IRL is up the creek.

Professor Moriarty · 25-06-2018 09:00PM

trellheim wrote: »

This is somewhat of a misunderstanding. Clock is ticking. With no decision, UK is out in March 2019 without a deal. Quite a lot of people in the UK want this as it means no transition timeframe and no 39 billion payment.

Quite a lot of people in the UK DO want a deal - but its open warfare internally ; this suits the people who want straight out, so they are egging on the warfare ( ever thought the chaos is for a reason ? )

BTW no deal is currently the most plausible - no-one can see any set of options that works at the moment, and any kind of brokerage the USA might do to knock heads together is impossible given their toxic politics at the moment. No deal means IRL is up the creek.

The current US administration is actively promoting the disintegration of the EU.

trellheim · 25-06-2018 09:04PM

The current US administration is actively promoting the disintegration of the EU

Indeed.

VinLieger · 25-06-2018 09:07PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The current US administration is actively promoting the disintegration of the EU.

I wonder where they got that idea from?

Imreoir2 · 25-06-2018 09:07PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The current US administration is actively promoting the disintegration of the EU.

Fortunately, the US administration seems to be disintegrating faster.

Capt'n Midnight · 25-06-2018 09:40PM

trellheim wrote: »

This is somewhat of a misunderstanding. Clock is ticking. With no decision, UK is out in March 2019 without a deal. Quite a lot of people in the UK want this as it means no transition timeframe and no 39 billion payment.

Quite a lot of people in the UK DO want a deal - but its open warfare internally ; this suits the people who want straight out, so they are egging on the warfare ( ever thought the chaos is for a reason ? )

BTW no deal is currently the most plausible - no-one can see any set of options that works at the moment, and any kind of brokerage the USA might do to knock heads together is impossible given their toxic politics at the moment. No deal means IRL is up the creek.

Brexit means we might not get
Economic report predicts 236,700 new jobs up to 2022 NI is only expected to get 9,500 new jobs by 2022. So no deal means NI is totally up the creek too as the DUP won't have control of the magic money tree. Bombardier depends on Airbus. Not to mention the costs of controlling the border. If we drop excise duty on fuel then the volume going north would eat into the NI tax take.

The €39Bn is for on-going stuff and bills and goodwill.

But it's less than a third of a percent of EU GDP. And they are risking half a trillion pounds of annual trade in goods with the EU, nevermind the services and financials. Not to mention that every else they to do a trade deal with demand better terms because of it. In short their diplomatic credit rating will take a hit.

Brexit discussion thread III

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