Brexit discussion thread III

Capt'n Midnight · 24-06-2018 01:44PM

Strong and Stable.

It's a good thing May has a magic money tree.

Oh wait...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5878221/Give-20billion-Ill-bring-Defence-Secretarys-astonishing-threat-PM.html

Give me £20billion or I'll bring you down: Defence Secretary’s astonishing threat to Theresa May in bitter row over military cuts

Thargor · 24-06-2018 02:20PM

https://twitter.com/guydej1/status/1010140050930225152

Everything any of the leavers ever say about trade deals or tariffs is 100% completely and utterly flat wrong and they are never called out on it by BBC, time is up, 9 months is not enough to even begin laying the groundwork for the required negotiations and there isnt even any sign of that.

Its not just the goofballs who wear poppies all year round either, Fox and JRM and Boris and everyone else do the same thing on camera all the time with zero repercussions. Of course dont forget The Prime Minister just straight up lied about paying for unicorns with a "Brexit dividend" that simply could not exist.

Capt'n Midnight · 24-06-2018 02:34PM

Just to reassure any EU citizens living in the UK about their rights.

Born in the Commonwealth ?
Lived in the UK for the last 60 years ?

British Passport Denied.

In fairness it's not just the Windrush folk.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/dup-man-not-allowed-british-passport-37031439.html

A veteran DUP politician is still being denied a British passport despite previously serving as Stormont Assembly speaker.

Baron Hay of Ballyore (William Hay) served as a DUP MLA for Foyle from 1998 to 2014 and currently serves in the House of Lords.
...
Good Friday Agreement guarantees people in Northern Ireland the right to British citizenship

Anthracite · 24-06-2018 02:40PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Just to reassure any EU citizens living in the UK about their rights.

Born in the Commonwealth ?
Lived in the UK for the last 60 years ?

British Passport Denied.

In fairness it's not just the Windrush folk.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/dup-man-not-allowed-british-passport-37031439.html

Not a serious point, but it would the funniest thing ever if he got deported post-Brexit.

briany · 24-06-2018 05:34PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4w7W-rduZ8

JRM and Verhofstadt debating why or if the EU can ignore it's own rules surrounding the border.

A couple of links as to why the EU can give /never actually gave a bail out. As that features heavily from JRM

www.cnbc.com/amp/id/35327584
http://www.politics.ie/forum/economy/177862-no-bail-out-clause-article-125-lisbon-treaty.html

Look at JRM, here. Slightly slouched in his big chair, fingers thatched, and a disdainful gaze. Age him by 40 years and you have Mr. Burns. He even has on a navy-coloured suit.

EdgeCase · 24-06-2018 05:42PM

We're living through (as observers if you're in Ireland) one of the most bizarre periods of modern political history.

The stable realities that we've taken for granted, certainly in the US and UK but in a few other places too, are being ripped up. Facts don't seem to matter anymore in those debates, just opinion and emotion, all supported by tabloids and online rumours.

I can't really see any positive outcome for the UK. The country is utterly rudderless. It's cutting off its own roots in business and trade, to the point that the Foreign Secretary allegedly said f*** business on Friday at a meeting.

At best, I think you're looking for a messy relationship with the rest of Europe for the foreseeable future and a major political problem to resolve in the UK itself, along with a declining economy as it struggles to try and reorientate itself towards unfamiliar and probably not very welcoming markets.

What made the UK a success story in recent decades has been a pro-business model. It's not telling business to f**k itself and attacking multinational companies who call bad political policies for what they are.

I think we're about to see a country implode under its own self-deluded hubris, egged on by a bunch of pot stirrers who just want to destroy 'the establishment', whatever that is.

Bigus · 24-06-2018 06:05PM

EdgeCase wrote: »

We're living through (as observers if you're in Ireland) one of the most bizarre periods of modern political history.

The stable realities that we've taken for granted, certainly in the US and UK but in a few other places too, are being ripped up. Facts don't seem to matter anymore in those debates, just opinion and emotion, all supported by tabloids and online rumours.

I can't really see any positive outcome for the UK. The country is utterly rudderless. It's cutting off its own roots in business and trade, to the point that the Foreign Secretary allegedly said f*** business on Friday at a meeting.

At best, I think you're looking for a messy relationship with the rest of Europe for the foreseeable future and a major political problem to resolve in the UK itself, along with a declining economy as it struggles to try and reorientate itself towards unfamiliar and probably not very welcoming markets.

What made the UK a success story in recent decades has been a pro-business model. It's not telling business to f**k itself and attacking multinational companies who call bad political policies for what they are.

I think we're about to see a country implode under its own self-deluded hubris, egged on by a bunch of pot stirrers who just want to destroy 'the establishment', whatever that is.

It'll be some sight when the army is on the streets quelling civil unrest in about 18 months time , over food inflation and unemployment, remember how the London riots and looting got out of hand so quickly a few summers ago ? Was hard to believe, but frightening how fast things unraveled, such as the mindless burning of the huge furniture shop. It's already not great in London with stabbings ,acid attacks and moped gangs on the rampage, add a bit more fuel to this fire and the sky's the limit.

Tropheus · 24-06-2018 06:18PM

It is very much a doomsday scenario that I would have said was unlikely six months ago. However, the current situation is making it more likely.

I'm concerned for family and work colleagues I have in the UK. I'm concerned for their jobs and their wellbeing. I also travel to London very frequently and I can see a time over the next year where I'll want to avoid that.

As each day passes, it's very hard to see anything positive come of this.

Spanish Eyes · 24-06-2018 06:39PM

Bigus wrote: »

It'll be some sight when the army is on the streets quelling civil unrest in about 18 months time , over food inflation and unemployment, remember how the London riots and looting got out of hand so quickly a few summers ago ? Was hard to believe, but frightening how fast things unraveled, such as the mindless burning of the huge furniture shop. It's already not great in London with stabbings ,acid attacks and moped gangs on the rampage, add a bit more fuel to this fire and the sky's the limit.

And the underfunding of the Police already even before leaving under Brexit too.

Nody · 24-06-2018 06:39PM

Tropheus wrote: »

As each day passes, it's very hard to see anything positive come of this.

The only positive; and it's a stretch to call it that and assume it will happen is that the UK population finally clears the air with their London overlords and give them a kick in the gonads that will be remembered. Once "project fear" turns into reality and the street of milk & honey from the new trade deals are not coming they will hopefully sort out their parties on both sides of the divide. That will be a harsh period but the hope is the tempered steel coming out from it will be stronger for it and be ready to rejoin and push EU in the right direction again without the home spun lies to hold it back. But before that happens there is going to be both two and three runs of variations of nationlism as well to fail that will be painful for non Brits (or people considered not to be British enough by their standards).

Strazdas · 24-06-2018 06:50PM

EdgeCase wrote: »

We're living through (as observers if you're in Ireland) one of the most bizarre periods of modern political history.

The stable realities that we've taken for granted, certainly in the US and UK but in a few other places too, are being ripped up. Facts don't seem to matter anymore in those debates, just opinion and emotion, all supported by tabloids and online rumours.

I can't really see any positive outcome for the UK. The country is utterly rudderless. It's cutting off its own roots in business and trade, to the point that the Foreign Secretary allegedly said f*** business on Friday at a meeting.

At best, I think you're looking for a messy relationship with the rest of Europe for the foreseeable future and a major political problem to resolve in the UK itself, along with a declining economy as it struggles to try and reorientate itself towards unfamiliar and probably not very welcoming markets.

What made the UK a success story in recent decades has been a pro-business model. It's not telling business to f**k itself and attacking multinational companies who call bad political policies for what they are.

I think we're about to see a country implode under its own self-deluded hubris, egged on by a bunch of pot stirrers who just want to destroy 'the establishment', whatever that is.

Egged on by a deeply dysfunctional media. I don't think Brexit could happen in any other country (ie. the entire Brexit process) as the media would be far more responsible elsewhere and trying to do the best by the country. In the UK, you have the media being onboard the Brexit train or even driving it.

Spanish Eyes · 24-06-2018 06:53PM

After the Apocalypse they will probably need to change FPTP too.

Totally unrepresentative, yielding Ying or Yang every five years. In a country that size one would imagine that there are plenty of people who feel totally disenfranchised.

EdgeCase · 24-06-2018 07:11PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Egged on by a deeply dysfunctional media. I don't think Brexit could happen in any other country (ie. the entire Brexit process) as the media would be far more responsible elsewhere and trying to do the best by the country. In the UK, you have the media being onboard the Brexit train or even driving it.

To be honest, I'm not even sure that there's an agenda behind the media's approach other than they've a notion that they can increase sales by appealing to football hooligan type xenophobes.

They're treating Brexit as if it's England vs Germany at the World Cup or something.

It's a nasty game about identity politics and whipping up hate.

briany · 24-06-2018 07:40PM

Nody wrote: »

The only positive; and it's a stretch to call it that and assume it will happen is that the UK population finally clears the air with their London overlords and give them a kick in the gonads that will be remembered. Once "project fear" turns into reality and the street of milk & honey from the new trade deals are not coming they will hopefully sort out their parties on both sides of the divide. That will be a harsh period but the hope is the tempered steel coming out from it will be stronger for it and be ready to rejoin and push EU in the right direction again without the home spun lies to hold it back. But before that happens there is going to be both two and three runs of variations of nationlism as well to fail that will be painful for non Brits (or people considered not to be British enough by their standards).

I'm worried there's enough people for whom no amount of economic disaster would be bad enough to do a U-turn on Brexit e.g. the pro-Brexit people in positions of political power and/or financial solvency to be mostly insulated from its effects, and the people who voted for Brexit because they figured things couldn't get worse, or don't care how bad it will get so long as the UK comes out of the EU.

J Mysterio · 24-06-2018 08:15PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

After the Apocalypse they will probably need to change FPTP too.

Totally unrepresentative, yielding Ying or Yang every five years. In a country that size one would imagine that there are plenty of people who feel totally disenfranchised.

Yes. The glorious British Parliamentary system that led to this disaster needs root and branch reform. No doubt about it.

Once it all goes to **** (which is basically now), I hope/ expect that there will be some new voices to emerge to challenge the status quo.

It just can't go on like this anyway, with a wobbly and deceitful PM stumbling from disaster to disaster, lying to parliament and being whipped along by caricatures of 19th century British imperialists.

The Tories will surely be unelectable after this debacle. Labour too as they just meekly and pathetically watched it happen. Greens/ Lib Dems are barely worth mentioning and I dont think there are many independents to speak of. UKIP/ BNP etc will hopefully be consigned to history - though some citizens may want to double down on them(!), risking a real rise of fascist sentiment in the UK.

So in terms of party politics, the various parties are essentially in disrepute. The system is sick also though, with parliamentary norms being abused and the efficacy of the system called into question. But the Nation - the UK itself - is fracturing and looks ready to break down. Scotland is certainly going to push for Independence and NI could well follow. The whole house of cards is very, very precarious right now.

Social unrest is a real possibility as it dawns on the population that they have followed the pied-MPers to oblivion. Job losses, tax hikes, inflation, underfundig of services, depression.

You could even see brain drain where the best and brightest may go elsewhere to improve their prospects.

ambro25 · 24-06-2018 08:28PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

You could even see brain drain where the best and brightest may go elsewhere to improve their prospects.

The brain drain is well underway, and well documented, already. Brexodus has been a (n under-)reported fact since around early 2018, and UK university and job applications by 'foreign' (EU) brains have been in freefall since just as long.

I too see social unrest as a possibility in the short to medium term post-March 2019, particularly since police forces have already been trimmed to the bone awhile, with worsening prospects as to recruitment and resourcing. I'm not a 'prepper', nor lent to over-reaction, but I'm actually starting to contingency-plan how to get the (late 70s) M-i-L out of the place by end summer 2019, if developing circumstances called for it.

J Mysterio · 24-06-2018 08:31PM

ambro25 wrote: »

The brain drain is well underway, and well documented, already. Brexodus has been a (n under-)reported fact since around early 2018, and UK university and job applications by 'foreign' (EU) brains have been in freefall since just as long.

I was thinking indigenous brains as opposed to those foreign! But altogether, UK society will be/ is becoming less prosperous. If you knowingly harm your own economy to service some half baked ideal, those who can will opt out for better opportunities elsewhere.

ambro25 · 24-06-2018 08:39PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

ambro25 wrote: »

The brain drain is well underway, and well documented, already. Brexodus has been a (n under-)reported fact since around early 2018, and UK university and job applications by 'foreign' (EU) brains have been in freefall since just as long.

I was thinking indigenous brains as opposed to those foreign! But altogether, UK society will be/ is becoming less prosperous.

I did get that, J Mysterio

The 'Brexodus' hashtag on Twitter is chock-full of dual-nationality couples (1 UK, 1 EU27), both who have already jetted off and who are prepping. Many Universities have also gone public about senior academics (including Brits) who have already departed for EU27 tenures and others who have resigned their chairs ready to do the same.

Given the 'state' of the UK MSM, we really shouldn't be surprised at all at the blackout about the issue. It's not really on-message. But it's happening alright. At scale, as well.

Leroy42 · 24-06-2018 09:06PM

I simply cannot see how anything is going to change. Did anything change after the London riots?

There appears to be the perfect storm. A unrepresentative electoral system. Two parties lead by very poor leaders. Lack of critical reporting by the state media (BBC) and partisan reporting by the rest of the media. Lack of understanding by the wider voters of the workings of the state or how elections can play their part.

There won't be a single day when Brexit shows itself as a disaster, it will, as it has been so far, will be a continual series of cuts.

Look at the Airbus story. We have a government minister coming out today saying companies should keep their mouths shut. Fox saying that they are wrecking the chances of the government of getting a deal.

If the economy stagnates then it will be blamed on bad faith from the EU. Or that Trump is mad. Or they are better on their own anyway. Or project fear talked down the economy.

But they (the UK as a whole) have shown very little signs of being critically aware enough to be able to realise and accept the part they part in their own situation.

Imreoir2 · 24-06-2018 09:35PM

briany wrote: »

I'm worried there's enough people for whom no amount of economic disaster would be bad enough to do a U-turn on Brexit e.g. the pro-Brexit people in positions of political power and/or financial solvency to be mostly insulated from its effects, and the people who voted for Brexit because they figured things couldn't get worse, or don't care how bad it will get so long as the UK comes out of the EU.

You don't need to smash the radical, irrational element out of existence. It exists in every country. The problem is that the British political establishment has allowed itself to become beholden to this element. I am getting to the stage that I fear that only a disastrous no-deal Brexit will be enough of a shock to the UK system to embolden and anger the middle ground enough to shove the radical little Englanders back to the fringe where they belong.

Imreoir2 · 24-06-2018 09:41PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I simply cannot see how anything is going to change. Did anything change after the London riots?

There appears to be the perfect storm. A unrepresentative electoral system. Two parties lead by very poor leaders. Lack of critical reporting by the state media (BBC) and partisan reporting by the rest of the media. Lack of understanding by the wider voters of the workings of the state or how elections can play their part.

There won't be a single day when Brexit shows itself as a disaster, it will, as it has been so far, will be a continual series of cuts.

Look at the Airbus story. We have a government minister coming out today saying companies should keep their mouths shut. Fox saying that they are wrecking the chances of the government of getting a deal.

If the economy stagnates then it will be blamed on bad faith from the EU. Or that Trump is mad. Or they are better on their own anyway. Or project fear talked down the economy.

But they (the UK as a whole) have shown very little signs of being critically aware enough to be able to realise and accept the part they part in their own situation.

If, as seems increasingly likely, there is a no deal Brexit, then you will have plenty of evidence on Brexit day of the disaster that Brexit will be. If they manage to throw some sort of deal together in time, then it wont be a disaster, but there will still be plenty of political ammo to throw at the brexiteers, like the customs border in the Irish sea.

McGiver · 24-06-2018 09:43PM

briany wrote: »

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4w7W-rduZ8

JRM and Verhofstadt debating why or if the EU can ignore it's own rules surrounding the border.

A couple of links as to why the EU can give /never actually gave a bail out. As that features heavily from JRM

www.cnbc.com/amp/id/35327584
http://www.politics.ie/forum/economy/177862-no-bail-out-clause-article-125-lisbon-treaty.html

Look at JRM, here. Slightly slouched in his big chair, fingers thatched, and a disdainful gaze. Age him by 40 years and you have Mr. Burns. He even has on a navy-coloured suit.

A sly arrogant sneering fox.

His reasoning is correct but he is being either ignorant or manipulative and so missing few very important points.

The EU can be flexible with the rules with its own member states, but not with third parties. UK is becoming a third party. By his logic, he should complain about the UK as well, because the UK had the most opt-outs of all the member states. Opt-outs can be considered as bending the rules, right. The EU is just saying that member states may get some flexibility, but the UK as a third party won't get anything as any other third parties. No more opt-outs.

His notion of "UK unilaterally won't put up a border" is absolutely insane and would be akin to an intentional sabotage in violation of the GFA and possibly WTO rules as well. He knows that the EU has to protect the single market and is just being provocative, his show is aimed more at domestic audience to get political points with hard-line Brexiteers rather than aimed at actually move the Brexit negotiations forward.

And finally - not putting up any border with the only land border the UK actually have? Take back control, right!

First Up · 24-06-2018 10:08PM

Maybe I'm in a minority but I'm long past caring what is going on in Westminster or Hackney or in the mind of the British electorate.

They are leaving; bye bye and hurry up. My energy is going into how Ireland minimises the damage and maximises the opportunities. We will do that by working with the 25 countries with whom we share membership and by finding ways to help our businesses do business with theirs.

Let the UK go fish.

Mezcita · 24-06-2018 10:23PM

Kind of used to Barnier's soundbites from when he gives press conferences. Interesting to get a few more thoughts on how he thinks it's going here:

Strazdas · 24-06-2018 10:51PM

EdgeCase wrote: »

To be honest, I'm not even sure that there's an agenda behind the media's approach other than they've a notion that they can increase sales by appealing to football hooligan type xenophobes.

They're treating Brexit as if it's England vs Germany at the World Cup or something.

It's a nasty game about identity politics and whipping up hate.

They seem to be trying to shape Brexit though, such as intimidating pro-Remain MPs whenever there is a vote coming up in the Commons and labelling them traitors. So they are not just rabble rousers or populists but see themselves as active players in the Brexit process, more akin to Breitbart or someone.

Charles Babbage · 25-06-2018 12:03AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Sorry but what do you mean? How is that a minimum turnout?

If you accept that 50% is OK with a 70% turnout then if 35% of the electorate vote (so 58% of a 60% turnout) then that is OK and the whole thing cannot be derailled by people boycotting.

LeinsterDub · 25-06-2018 12:24AM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

If you accept that 50% is OK with a 70% turnout then if 35% of the electorate vote (so 58% of a 60% turnout) then that is OK and the whole thing cannot be derailled by people boycotting.

Yes but we are taking about minimum turnouts so if you had set the minimum at 71% a fairly small boycott could render your example void as only 70% turned out.

I don't get your 58% of a 60 % thing?

EdgeCase · 25-06-2018 12:39AM

Strazdas wrote: »

They seem to be trying to shape Brexit though, such as intimidating pro-Remain MPs whenever there is a vote coming up in the Commons and labelling them traitors. So they are not just rabble rousers or populists but see themselves as active players in the Brexit process, more akin to Breitbart or someone.

They’re active players but what’s the motive beyond just simple xenophobia?

The tabloid media in the UK has always played this role and the other shapes of gutter press played similar games in the 19th century.

There’s a mixture of xenophobia, trolling and possibly conspiracy to achieve some kind of ideologically driven damage to the EU or a perceived world order.

I think you’re seeing a perfect storm (as decribed further up the thread) that also extends to this. It’s a coalition of forces that seem to want to do this for a whole load of reasons that don’t necessarily allign other than on that one objective.

The only people I can see actually benefiting are disaster capitalists and anyone with an agenda to undermine stability in Europe generally.

Trasna1 · 25-06-2018 12:53AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Yes but we are taking about minimum turnouts so if you had set the minimum at 71% a fairly small boycott could render your example void as only 70% turned out.

I don't get your 58% of a 60 % thing?

Minimum turnouts are generally set quite low, like 40%. Brexit had a turnout in excess of 70%iirc, so trying to delegitimise the result in that basis isn't really valid. Indeed saying that the electorate were taken in by lies isn't valid either since the lies were called out several times during the campaign and the electorate chose not to listen.

The post referendum remain campaign really had lived in denial, by betting everything on overturning the result. It should have taken heed of the UKs long standing European policy, buy in and undermine or shape the result from the inside.

briany · 25-06-2018 01:17AM

McGiver wrote: »

A sly arrogant sneering fox.

His reasoning is correct but he is being either ignorant or manipulative and so missing few very important points.

I'll give it up to Mogg in the sense that he's very well-spoken and eloquent. It's easy to be charmed by his eccentric persona. But for people using phrases like "Can't clog the Mogg!", well firstly it's a phrase that the Sun would think twice about running with and secondly does Mogg truly care about the kind of commoner writing it?

He presents himself as an extremely traditional British politician - almost like one's concept of what British politicians were like 100 years ago. But with that comes the idea that, as that kind of politician, he doesn't consider himself the same as most of his constituents or truly understand their concerns. He's not your friend, and he's not trying to be. And with that comes the potential for Mogg to enact some really painful measures whenever he wins out in this House of Cards power game he's playing, because he's doing it more out of an aloof and detached sense of what is 'right' and not examining the social fallout.

Brexit discussion thread III

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