Is anyone else starting to become a bit worried? mod note in first post

TallyRand wrote: »

As a casual, sceptic observer of crypto I think Johnny is very consistent and if I used this forum as a microcosm of crypto I’d be very negative on it.

The only thing Johnny is consistent with is evasion and wilful ignorance

EOS is a PoS (the other kind of PoS) ponzi scamcoin, no different to every half-hearted BTC fork

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

I’m the only one here posting links from academics and neutral observers.

Firstly - that's not true. On any given day, there is research out there that may support or detract from crypto. As regards neutral observers, I don't believe in any such thing - and certainly not in this space above all others (and that applies to both sides of the debate)!

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

There’s some new research out this morning showing the enormous price rise in bitcoin, and therefore all other currencies, was as a result of tethers being printed. Research grounded in fact, and not some pseudo-religious belief in blockchain

As you are aware, I'm fully on board with your take on the Tether scenario. However, this nonsense about a pseudo-religious belief in blockchain has nothing to do with it. The Tether aspect affects pricing. In the meantime, the tech is being developed all the while (which is far more important). You're labeling with your 'pseudo religious belief' comment. Those that are enthusiastic about crypto are part of a broad church. Sure, some of them may be over-exuberant but others still are pretty pragmatic about it.
By the same token, there are plenty that are fundamentalists in the nay-sayer department where crypto is concerned - so it cuts both ways.

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

People who bought made up magic beans in November, December and January are about 80-99% out of pocket.

Sure - where's the beef here? Nobody will disagree with you.

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

To buy coins that were created by compiling some code and hyping them up. Coins with no practical usage, and with enormous negative consequences for the environment if they were ever to become popular.

Ok, so those people bought crypto that was overvalued. They may also have bought particular coins that have no potential whatsoever. However, you are throwing the baby out with the bathwater. To suggest that there is no promise or application for any coin is inaccurate. Furthermore, you refer to coins with regard to energy usage. There's only one significant coin which has a dependency on high energy usage but you are writing them all off inaccurately on that basis.

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

I’d suggest some introspection could be a useful exercise.

A two way street JF....could be cathartic for your good self.

grindle wrote: »

EOS is a PoS (the other kind of PoS) ponzi scamcoin, no different to every half-hearted BTC fork

Shauny2010 wrote: »

Just to point out EOS is just software nothing more. Block.one aka Dan & Co. collected a shed load of money for themselves not EOS

Thanks for posting your views. I guess that its an horrendous amount of money. IF those funds were to be used to fund projects to build on the EOS platform, that's a pretty scary prospect. However, I did also think that human nature being what it is, that cash would just get cleared off the table. Leaving aside the probable cashing out which will be a disaster for those that contributed the $4B, technically does EOS leave anything behind that is beneficial technologically despite the fact that those that have put their money in will get burnt?

Is it fair to say that all projects are currently overvalued (all in the top 20)?

Shauny2010 wrote:

Theirs a lot of bad ugly news to hit the market yet, between scam coins, market manipulations and Government investigations things will get worse before they get better. Having said that I see it as an opportunity for those who missed out and want to enter this space, just don't invested in the bad and Ugly!

Surely it will be necessary to sit on the sidelines though until those govt. investigations actually result in weeding out one or two obvious manipulations?...even if looking at a project that has plenty of merit..

Shauny2010 wrote: »

Having said that I see it as an opportunity for those who missed out and want to enter this space, just don't invested in the bad and Ugly!

It could also be the case everything out there to date is the bad and the ugly. If we look at the dotcom boom, most of those fast out of the gate did not last the distance, being replaced by better platforms that learnt the lessons of the past or adapted better, no reason the same is not true of cryptos.

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

People who bought made up magic beans in November, December and January are about 80-99% out of pocket.

A little exaggerated. The market is currently down around 60% to 70% from (Jan) peak.

The problem with crypto is the unpredictability - for example one purchase in 2014 was down 90% by early 2017 (following a 3 year bear). That coin then spiked to a peak (like most cryptos did) and currently sits around down approx 60% to 70% down from ATH. It's current 2018 bear value is still up 400% from that 2014 bull buy date. As are many coins. Can't argue with those return percentages. Buffet got 30% a year and he was considered an oracle. They might be magic beans, but the cash is real.

I'm not disagreeing with crypto skepticism and cynicism - I actually agree with a lot of it. But every time there's a bear or a long lull the same type of commentators come out of the woodwork and make these same comments.

Inquitus wrote: »

there was a right time to get in and get massive gains, that time has now passed. Crypto sentiment is at an all time low, for now, in so far as those relatively ignorant people who drove the bubble have been burnt. Regulation, Tether, really bad scam ICO's getting exposed in the near future, are all going to be a drag on prices.

It depends on how you look at it. I have no problem going long. However, I'd prefer the 'Tether' boil to have been lanced before I do so. More or less in line with that, probably all cryptos are still overvalued proportionate to where they are at. i.e. if these were conventional start-ups, there is no way they would have the valuations they currently have based on what they have as yet to achieve (for the most part) despite some very promising prospects in some cases.

Therefore, I don't think there are any missed opportunities. There is a total impatience in the crypto space though. A wave of people got burnt and it will be VERY hard for them to come back. However, there will be others and there are others that are still involved (or got out the right side of it). The important thing is that the real tangible work is being done in the background (oblivious to the speculative aspect) on the serious projects. Those that are complete vapourware will at some point dissipate into oblivion.

Straw poll - Do you believe crypto's to be overvalued still when you actually look at the fundamentals? Question only relevant to those that look at the long term prospects of a project and the fundamentals of each project.

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

No proof of work solution will ever become a solution. Cause of the horrific energy usage at the core of the solution.
Bitcoin uses as much CO2 as 1 million transatlantic flights!

Yes and no. There is one problem in your assessment (and that of other nay-sayers) as you place NO value on a system of totally immutable transactions but you will contenance actual waste of electrical resouces in other areas. I'd highly recommend the following discussion =>

The third industrial revolution.

It is relevant to us all and also references blockchain based systems.

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Ethereum is catching up quick. Any coin built on the ethereum platform will fail as well. Because of the energy usage and preposterous transaction fees.

Eh, I know you spend more time on researching this whole thing than I do (for whatever reason??). You know well that ETH are looking at rolling out 2x updates all together;

i.e. Sharding to deal with the scalability issue & a potential switch from PoW to PoS.

And of course, you simply ignore any other projects that - from the get go - don't have an energy usage issue...

Inquitus wrote: »

There was a speculative bubble which has burst, there was a right time to get in and get massive gains, that time has now passed. Crypto sentiment is at an all time low, for now, in so far as those relatively ignorant people who drove the bubble have been burnt.

There have been many speculative bubbles in crypto. After each one, the above is repeated. I'm not saying you're wrong, this might be "the one", but I've read it so many times by this stage. I've even said so myself a good few times, and will admit in each case I've been wrong.

sabat wrote: »

The difference between this current (December till now) peak and crash and previous iterations is that every one of the latter group was caused by a specific event such as a hack, legislation, insider fraud etc whereas this time around the scheme simply collapsed under its own weight.

If we are to believe JF, there was market manipulation in the run up to December (and bizarrely I do!...wtf!). This is all to do with speculation. In the meantime, the technology is being quietly developed all the while.

sabat wrote: »

The difference between this current (December till now) peak and crash and previous iterations is that every one of the latter group was caused by a specific event such as a hack, legislation, insider fraud etc whereas this time around the scheme simply collapsed under its own weight.

Most experienced people I know were telling friends/colleagues who wanted to get in in Dec to wait for the crash. It's a given. Real event or boogeyman, 95% of the value of these things is psychological, and that is what dictates the value, including the FOMO rises and the steep falls

The top ten coins (ish) are still approx 100% up on this time last year. Have to lose 50% value to cut even. Anyway, in the next year or two, I get the feeling I may be using quotes from some users

makeorbrake wrote: »

Taking crypto generally, you think the space is generally over priced right now and still in need of correction?

I like to think of this when i think of crypto

Value: the regard that something is held to deserve; the importance, worth, or usefulness of something.

I believe that cryptos have value, real value that can be used and is being used as currencys.

What that value is though is all based on the need of it from someone else but so is a lot of things, old cars,rare comic books etc

makeorbrake wrote: »

Taking crypto generally, you think the space is generally over priced right now and still in need of correction?

The two real "floors" now since Jan have been less worse than I expected, and any sharp rises were naturally crushed by the bears (or reality as I'd call it), so far nothing out of the ordinary. It's not 2014 where we simply didn't know if it could recover, so it's less of an "unknown". Far better infrastructure. If nothing dramatic happens in the next 2 months, and the next dip isn't lower than early April or a week ago, then I think that will be quite interesting

Proof of Work is completely unsustainable. Environmentally, socially, and economically. So ye all need to get rid of that stuff from the portfolio. Lightening is a farce so far. Off chain implementations reintroduce a lack of decentralised trust.

Proof of stake is centralisation under a different name.

Next innovation of blockchain? Cause I can see some merits in it, only none of it involves lads hodling crypto coins in the expectation that someone will buy it for more money in the future.

Name one coin that rewards people for owning them (and how that would work is even better), has a real world application, doesn’t involve using enormous amounts of electricity, and is scalable.

Not a single example exists so far. This is preposterous stuff. The entire crypto space. It’s a mess of con artists, hype, and fake money.