Brexit discussion thread III

Alan_P · 16-06-2018 05:05PM

judeboy101 wrote: »

i doubt the phone call Brian lenihan got from the EU pre guarantee would back that statement up.

Lenihan neither got nor made a phone to the EU prior to the bank guarantee :- that particular grotesque stupidity was entirely conceived and implemented by Fianna Fail.

The EU didn't even know about it, and were largely horrified and bemused when it emerged.

Anthracite · 16-06-2018 05:09PM

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I have recently spoke to some Leave voters who genuinely think this is what they voted for.
The 'logic' seems to be that a major country voted for the bloc of 28 to be broken up, therefore that's what should happen. That the remainder seem content to carry on as a bloc of 27 is regarded as being tantamount to cheating and evidence of typical foreigner skullduggery. I found it a novel attitude. Purely anecdotal this, just a handful of (very well off) retirees in a village pub in Surrey.

Edit : A rough quote was 'we voted for everyone to go back to just trading with each other how they wanted, but they (Europe) won't honour that vote'.

If that's what they really think, that is absolutely hilarious.

judeboy101 · 16-06-2018 05:11PM

Alan_P wrote: »

judeboy101 wrote: »

i doubt the phone call Brian lenihan got from the EU pre guarantee would back that statement up.

Lenihan neither got nor made a phone to the EU prior to the bank guarantee :- that particular grotesque stupidity was entirely conceived and implemented by Fianna Fail.

The EU didn't even know about it, and were largely horrified and bemused when it emerged.

Are you really telling me they knew nothing? https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/brian-lenihan-s-family-criticises-trichet-over-phone-call-1.2198516?mode=amp

Enzokk · 16-06-2018 05:22PM

joeysoap wrote: »

From QT and other programs on British tv I get the impression that many of the leavers never considered the Uk as being one of the 28 members. Alsmost like 27 and ‘us’.
‘They’ made decisions which affected us, ‘they’ made life hard for us, ‘they’ had too many rules etc etc. and enough of the electorate swallowed the spin thrown at them. The fact that the big sellers - the Sun, the Express, the Daily Mail etc - have been anti EU, gave some voters a reason to vote leave, bendy bananas, Turkey joining the Eu among others,

Maybe my memory isn’t as good as it was but didn’t TM visit Turkey early doors to talk trade deals? A country that was supposedly joining the EU?

It has been pointed out that the newspapers were there shouting about how the "foreign" EU were making the rules but neglecting to note that the UK was part of the process. But people believing newspapers without some verification will be misled very easily.

The galling thing is how UK politicians in the UK parliament claim EU directives that they had no hand in at all. If you want to see the real reason for Brexit it is this type of behavior that somehow justified the view from The Daily Mail and The Sun.

Theresa May mocked for suggesting Tories to thank for credit card charge ban imposed by EU

Theresa May has been mocked for claiming credit for an EU policy to protect consumers from rip-off payment card charges.

Retailers, airlines and other businesses have been banned from hitting shoppers with hidden surcharges when they use credit or debit cards – sometimes as high as 20 per cent – which costs consumers around £166m each year.

MEPs criticised the Government for claiming responsibility for the move, which comes as part of a broad range of new payment regulations based on an EU–wide directive that was spearheaded by left-wing politicians in the European Parliament.

The Government must comply with EU directives until Britain leaves the bloc, although these changes will become part of UK law so will remain after Brexit.

The Prime Minister tweeted: "From today we're banning hidden charges for paying with your credit or debit card – a move that will help millions of people avoid rip-off fees when spending their hard-earned money."

briany · 16-06-2018 05:27PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Mind you, they are protected from chlorinated chicken if they stay in the single market. So not all bad.

I keep seeing this chlorinated chicken example. It's not so much chlorination that's the problem as that in the U.S. chlorination may be one of the only food safety procedures undertaken on a slaughtered and plucked chicken. So the warning should really be that the UK could get an influx of food that is of a generally lower standard both in terms of animal welfare and processing regulations.

flutered · 16-06-2018 05:57PM

flatty wrote: »

The EU will stand foursquare behind Ireland. I have absolutely no doubt about this. None.

if they do not, what message will the small nations take from that, as the eu is primarly made up of small nations

flutered · 16-06-2018 05:59PM

An Claidheamh wrote: »

"Irish sources say they have been informed via European capitals that British officials have been briefing against Ireland, hoping to diminish support for Ireland’s case."

Can we stop pretending they're our friends now?

In any other country, this would be headline news.

if it had not been happening for 800 years it would be headline news, but it has which is why no notice is being taken of it, as it is expected to happen, similar to wet weather

flutered · 16-06-2018 06:01PM

flatty wrote: »

The brexit wing of the tory party is friends with no one, and is as happy to screw over its own less well off compatriots as it is to screw over Ireland, or anyone else. Why would you think any different. I would suggest just bearing in mind that four times the population of the Republic voted to remain despite all of the lies and spin and rule breaking and propaganda. That's an awful lot of people who want to be open, friendly and good European neighbours.

it also shows that the dupers should take nothing for granted, as if push comes to shove ni will be handed over to the eu, if it means brexit is brexit

Charles Babbage · 16-06-2018 06:06PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Guys can Ireland benefit from the madness to either side of us?

I am thinking make Ireland (well maybe with exception of Dublin due to its housing issues) the place to be for researchers and scientists and engineers by relaxing immigration visas to those with postgraduate academic qualifications and families (hence are not likely to leave and would become long term taxpayers)

While the US and UK are shooting themselves in the foot, maybe we can mop up the best and the brightest to come work in existing companies or start new enterprises with their own capital.

I doubt if Ireland can benefit, but it could be swings and roundabouts. Many of these jobs will come to Dubin and drive up prices where it is not needed, while agribusiness in Donegal could lose out, where economic activity is very much needed

J Mysterio · 16-06-2018 06:34PM

Not sure if you guys saw this in ths Sunday Times last week, thought it was brilliant.

Strazdas · 16-06-2018 06:48PM

joeysoap wrote: »

From QT and other programs on British tv I get the impression that many of the leavers never considered the Uk as being one of the 28 members. Alsmost like 27 and ‘us’.
‘They’ made decisions which affected us, ‘they’ made life hard for us, ‘they’ had too many rules etc etc. and enough of the electorate swallowed the spin thrown at them. The fact that the big sellers - the Sun, the Express, the Daily Mail etc - have been anti EU, gave some voters a reason to vote leave, bendy bananas, Turkey joining the Eu among others,

Maybe my memory isn’t as good as it was but didn’t TM visit Turkey early doors to talk trade deals? A country that was supposedly joining the EU?

Yes indeed, this is very noticeable among Brexiteers, always speaking of the EU as 'they' and 'them', no sense that the UK is even one of its members or that everyone in Britain is an EU citizen.

It does suggest extreme ignorance on their part about the structure of the EU. They think it is something akin to the Soviet Union / Warsaw Pact countries 1945-89, with a central Politburo handing down orders to all member states.

They don't seem to be aware that it is an actual union of equals and that the UK helps draw up the very laws that are supposedly 'imposed' on it from Brussels.

trellheim · 16-06-2018 07:06PM

Folks we really need to start thinking in terms of absolute worst-case - in some ways thats simple . Borders go up and we deal with it. Easy to say but painful in the extreme.

What I want to discuss right now - and take a moment to think about it - with the talks the way they are - what is the plausible best outcome - what's the best deal Ireland plc could get.

I still have an awful feeling a Euro PM from someone Eu27 small ( like De Rutter from NL did last time ) will come over and tell us how its going to go down.

Sure what use is a veto - the internal politics for Ireland might start to play (more of) a part ( you can see a little of this in today's IT)

Strazdas · 16-06-2018 07:11PM

trellheim wrote: »

Folks we really need to start thinking in terms of absolute worst-case - in some ways thats simple . Borders go up and we deal with it. Easy to say but painful in the extreme.

What I want to discuss right now - and take a moment to think about it - with the talks the way they are - what is the plausible best outcome - what's the best deal Ireland plc could get.

I still have an awful feeling a Euro PM from someone Eu27 small ( like De Rutter from NL did last time ) will come over and tell us how its going to go down.

Sure what use is a veto - the internal politics for Ireland might start to play (more of) a part ( you can see a little of this in today's IT)

Best deal would be the UK being a full member of the EEA (Single Market) and Customs Union. But economists reckon even that would impact on the Irish economy.....nonetheless it is still the best outcome for us.

Charles Babbage · 16-06-2018 07:17PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Best deal would be the UK being a full member of the EEA (Single Market) and Customs Union. But economists reckon even that would impact on the Irish economy.....nonetheless it is still the best outcome for us.

Best deal is this + additional stuff for NI, notably agriculture but also anything else the EEA doesn't have.
No existing cross border provision should be removed.

An Claidheamh · 16-06-2018 07:52PM

judeboy101 wrote: »

i doubt the phone call Brian lenihan got from the EU pre guarantee would back that statement up.

The fact that we're paying for those banking debts is precisely why the EU will do what Ireland wants.

Sam Russell · 16-06-2018 08:15PM

briany wrote: »

I keep seeing this chlorinated chicken example. It's not so much chlorination that's the problem as that in the U.S. chlorination may be one of the only food safety procedures undertaken on a slaughtered and plucked chicken. So the warning should really be that the UK could get an influx of food that is of a generally lower standard both in terms of animal welfare and processing regulations.

Chlorinated chicken is just shorthand for the appalling level of American food production where the lowest price is king and the large corporation benefits while the base supplier gets involved by a chase to the bottom. The EU does not work that way.

The production of beef, chicken, pork, GM cereals, etc are all foods we do not want in Europe.

The US will force these on the UK if they try to negotiate a FTA.

trellheim · 16-06-2018 08:32PM

The fact that we're paying for those banking debts is precisely why the EU will do what Ireland wants.

I do not believe this is any leverage at all

Spanish Eyes · 16-06-2018 08:37PM

If the EU abandon Ireland in this, it is curtains for them and they know it. But we are a member too, and we should not ever forget this.

But it won't happen, the uk is doing a self destruct dance anyway. And in their arrogance they will not admit it.

trellheim · 16-06-2018 08:43PM

If the EU abandon Ireland in this, it is curtains for them and they know it

why ? Greece was happily carved up. Theres no evidence I can see for that theory.

My theory - referencing Greece as an example - is that the 4 freedoms must be taken ( and will be enforced by the EU) to be unbreakable ; Hungary and a few other states would be straight on the same train if the UK got an additional opt-out.

BUT - with all sides knowing this - you'd think it would have been sorted by now. As the hangman in Blazing Saddles says when the boss opens the window .. " As you can see Sir, it's utter chaos down here"

Nody · 16-06-2018 08:50PM

trellheim wrote: »

why ? Greece was happily carved up. Theres no evidence I can see for that theory.

My theory - referencing Greece as an example - is that the 4 freedoms must be taken ( and will be enforced by the EU) to be unbreakable ; Hungary and a few other states would be straight on the same train if the UK got an additional opt-out.

BUT - with all sides knowing this - you'd think it would have been sorted by now. As the hangman in Blazing Saddles says when the boss opens the window .. " As you can see Sir, it's utter chaos down here"

It is obvious to all but the UK politicians apparently...

briany · 16-06-2018 09:11PM

What if David Cameron had not held the referendum as a whole UK one, but four separate ones in each constituent country, and specified that a majority must be achieved in each in order for the UK to move forward with Brexit?

I think this would have been a shrewd move because it's difficult to argue against this without exposing the idea that the UK is not a union of equals. And while this would still have stoked the flames of regionalism, it would at least been better to have this debate in the aftermath of the vote, where the voting structure gave NI and Scotland more leverage to block Brexit and demonstrate to people the possibly grave implications of Brexit for the UK's integrity.

Capt'n Midnight · 16-06-2018 10:09PM

briany wrote: »

What if David Cameron had not held the referendum as a whole UK one, but four separate ones in each constituent country, and specified that a majority must be achieved in each in order for the UK to move forward with Brexit?

Look at how Westminster has "temporiarly" taken back powers from the regions.

How we got here
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-21148282

The prime minister said he wanted to renegotiate the UK's relationship with the EU and then give people the "simple choice" between staying in under those new terms, or leaving the EU.

The news was welcomed by Eurosceptics who have long campaigned for a vote.

"France and Germany both warned the UK could not "cherry pick" EU membership."
- 23 January 2013 , So much has changed since, ... actually nothings changed on the EU side.

"I believe in confronting this issue - shaping it, leading the debate. Not simply hoping a difficult situation will go away." - and look how that went , :rolleyes:

sink · 16-06-2018 11:00PM

trellheim wrote: »

why ? Greece was happily carved up. Theres no evidence I can see for that theory.

My theory - referencing Greece as an example - is that the 4 freedoms must be taken ( and will be enforced by the EU) to be unbreakable ; Hungary and a few other states would be straight on the same train if the UK got an additional opt-out.

BUT - with all sides knowing this - you'd think it would have been sorted by now. As the hangman in Blazing Saddles says when the boss opens the window .. " As you can see Sir, it's utter chaos down here"

The Greek bailout was an entirely different scenario and has very little in common with the situation Ireland faces now.

Greece broke EU and ECB budgetary rules, lied about it and refused to implement reforms without a gun to their head
In regards to Brexit Ireland has done nothing but be the most stalwart EU supporter, has toed the line and indeed led the EU in many respects
Greek interests and EU/ECB were extemely divergent, Greece wanted to keep spending other peoples money, EU/ECB wanted to ensure they paid for themselves.
In stark contrast Ireland's and the EU's interests are almost perfectly aligned, they both want the UK to A) Be part of the SM/CU Fullfill all their outstanding obligations C) Not to get any special privileges
The EU/ECB wanted to make an example out of Greece in order to presuade all other members that the rules must be followed in order to ensure lasting stability of the EU/Eurozone
The EU want to make an example out of the UK and the folly of leaving the EU and to set a counterexample of Ireland who will demonstrate the benefits of being an EU member

Why would the EU sell us out? They would only be selling out themselves.

Rjd2 · 17-06-2018 01:48AM

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/absolutely-no-one-is-happy-what-did-or-didnt-go-down-in-a-week-of-brexit/

Interesting if not exactly a shocking article, essentially no wing of the Tory party is happy atm.

On Labour, they had a festival to celebrate the Messiah Yesterday, it was a bit of a mess selling tickets, but to be fair reading reports, plenty seemed to like it and even right wing journos got into the spirit of things so no harm done.:)

And heck I can't sneer I once spent money on Puddle of Mudd tickets:(

However one story that is doing the rounds from the guardian which seems to symbolise a serious issue with the party, the powers in charge seem intent on shutting down those who have less favourable opinions on Brexit.

From all accounts called Tories etc, because obviously The Tories support base are hugely keen on fighting Brexit.:rolleyes:

Outside I met a few young representatives of For our Future’s Sake who were planning a “friendly protest” against the party’s refusal to have a proper debate on Brexit policy. They were planning to unfurl a pro-Remain banner when Corbyn took the stage, though they feared their banner might be confiscated by Momentum heavies.

When – after an introductory DJ set that included Prince’s I Wanna Be Your Lover – the leader appeared, the banner was raised, and the Remain group and their banner were quickly ushered out. This allowed the leader of the opposition to enthuse a by-now significantly larger crowd of the converted with impassioned pledges to renationalise “rail, mail and water”, build a million council homes and to “support everybody”, while fans chorused his “Ooh! Jeremy Corbyn” theme tune. Like any headliner worth his salt, he knows to stick to the hits.

Peregrinus · 17-06-2018 05:43AM

briany wrote: »

What if David Cameron had not held the referendum as a whole UK one, but four separate ones in each constituent country, and specified that a majority must be achieved in each in order for the UK to move forward with Brexit?

I think this would have been a shrewd move because it's difficult to argue against this without exposing the idea that the UK is not a union of equals. And while this would still have stoked the flames of regionalism, it would at least been better to have this debate in the aftermath of the vote, where the voting structure gave NI and Scotland more leverage to block Brexit and demonstrate to people the possibly grave implications of Brexit for the UK's integrity.

When the Bill for holding the referendum was before Parliament, there was discussion of whether there should be a requirement for a qualified majority - a majority overall, plus a majority in at least three of the constituent parts of the UK, or a majority including at least 40% of the electorate (so the referendum couldn't be decided by a narrow margin on a low turnout) - that kind of thing. There is precedent for this in referendums that the UK has held before, e.g. the Scottish devolution referendum of 1979.

But the governnment's position was that this wasn't necessary, since the outcome of the referendum would not be legally binding. If the government didn't think that the referendum result reflected a sufficient national consensus, it could decide not to act on it.

In advance of the referendum actually being held, the Tories committed to "respect" the result, which the honours students will note is not quite the same thing as a commitment to implement the result.

However, since the referendum result, the Tories have been hijacked by ultra-Brexiters who assert that the referendum results reflects an immutable "Will of the People™", that their interpretation of the result represents dogma before which all must bow, and that any suggestion of consulting the people or thelr elected represntatives further must be resisted, since it represents an opportunity for the people to betray the Will of the People™.

Peregrinus · 17-06-2018 05:53AM

EdgeCase wrote: »

They seem constantly shocked by the fact that the EU, unlike themselves isn’t just throwing Ireland under a bus. Unlike the UK, the EU does actually grant its members huge powers of veto and treats them with a far greater degree of equality and respect. The UK approach is very much that the UK is England and the other countries aren't taken seriously at all really. That's always been the history of the UK. It's never been a union by consent, but by hostile acquisition and forced integration and that's, sadly, still being reflected in modern politics.

There’s also an inability to comprehend that Ireland is a part of the EU and the Eurozone and the European Commission and other institutions' job and role is to protect the EU and the Eurozone . . .

There's a strange Jekyll-and-Hyde thing going on here in the brexity mind.

On the one hand, a fundamental dogma of brexitry is that the people of the UK only ever agreed to join a Common Market, an economic arrangement aimed at securing freer trade to mutual economic advantage. Since then, however, the EU has been transmuted in to a sinister political project which pursues union as an end in itself, for ideological reasons, and not for economic reasons.

Yet they approached, and still approach, the Brexit negiations with an apparently immutable faith that the EU will compromise its unity and its principles for economic advantage. Ireland is a small country and so unimportant, the brexity reasoning goes, and so will be thrown under a bus, and the UK indulged, so the economic impact of Brexit can be minimised. They expect the EU to fail to display solidarity with small member states if larger member states can earn a few shillings by doing so.

Since their whole objection to the EU is that it isn't driven by considerations of economic advantage, a Brexit negotiation strategy which depends on the EU subordinating solidarity, unity, fairness, etc to economic advantage is one which Brexiters should expect not to work. Yet not only do they adopt this strategy, but they get very angry when its dismal results show the fundamental Brexit dogma, that the EU is about more than the money, to be correct.

Alan_P · 17-06-2018 06:32AM

judeboy101 wrote: »

Are you really telling me they knew nothing? https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/brian-lenihan-s-family-criticises-trichet-over-phone-call-1.2198516?mode=amp

Are you really suggesting that 3 year old story where an aunt defends her dead nephew proves they did ?

trellheim · 17-06-2018 08:52AM

The Greek bailout was an entirely different scenario and has very little in common with the situation Ireland faces now.
Greece broke EU and ECB budgetary rules, lied about it and refused to implement reforms without a gun to their head
In regards to Brexit Ireland has done nothing but be the most stalwart EU supporter, has toed the line and indeed led the EU in many respects
Greek interests and EU/ECB were extemely divergent, Greece wanted to keep spending other peoples money, EU/ECB wanted to ensure they paid for themselves.
In stark contrast Ireland's and the EU's interests are almost perfectly aligned, they both want the UK to A) Be part of the SM/CU Fullfill all their outstanding obligations C) Not to get any special privileges
The EU/ECB wanted to make an example out of Greece in order to presuade all other members that the rules must be followed in order to ensure lasting stability of the EU/Eurozone
The EU want to make an example out of the UK and the folly of leaving the EU and to set a counterexample of Ireland who will demonstrate the benefits of being an EU member
Why would the EU sell us out? They would only be selling out themselves.

Yes I know it was a somewhat different comparison in terms of the situation faced - my point was more the gun-to-the-head lack of choice.

My strong belief is that a compromise that is very unattractive to Ireland will be hammered out, to allow the transition agreement go into effect ( remember there is still NO transition agreement). As far as I can see this is the DExEu's strategy - to delay and delay until the horrible situation on offer is better than no deal. At that point a man will arrive (not from Brussels but from somewhere else - this is what happened last time ) and we will be told 'take the deal' .

RobertKK · 17-06-2018 08:52AM

Looks like Theresa May has finally totally lost it. On the Andrew Marr show talking about the phantom 'Brexit dividend'.
If she has bought into that crap then a no deal Brexit is looking more likely.

listermint · 17-06-2018 08:58AM

trellheim wrote: »

Yes I know it was a somewhat different comparison in terms of the situation faced - my point was more the gun-to-the-head lack of choice.

My strong belief is that a compromise that is very unattractive to Ireland will be hammered out, to allow the transition agreement go into effect ( remember there is still NO transition agreement). As far as I can see this is the DExEu's strategy - to delay and delay until the horrible situation on offer is better than no deal. At that point a man will arrive (not from Brussels but from somewhere else - this is what happened last time ) and we will be told 'take the deal' .

Sorry but that's complete hogwash.

There's no basis of fact for peddling that nonsense

Brexit discussion thread III

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