Brexit discussion thread III

J Mysterio · 14-06-2018 01:39PM

trellheim wrote: »

Rolls Royce ( the jet engine lot ) announce 4600 job losses ( see https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/news/derby-news/what-happened-derby-mps-challenged-1675703) .

Wow

demfad · 14-06-2018 01:41PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

To protect these companies from the negative effects of Brexit. In this case, for EU manufacturers whose type approval came via the UK, the UK leaves, allow them to transfer it to an approval agency in the EU.

Why on earth would the EU not do that? Did they think the EU would let Skodas type approval lapse and force them to stop selling cars in the EU because the UK leaves?

The fact that the FT think this is even faintly newsworthy is laughable.

No its not. This is only necessary in a hard Brexit and would not be necessary under a proposed transition arrangement. It depends on what Brexit is likley to mean. The only hard Brexit available now is the type that will cause meltdown in the UK: Dover port to close in a day etc.

WomanSkirtFan8 · 14-06-2018 01:41PM

trellheim wrote: »

Rolls Royce ( the jet engine lot ) announce 4600 job losses ( see https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/news/derby-news/what-happened-derby-mps-challenged-1675703) .

Ouch! That's really going to hurt!:cool:

Zubeneschamali · 14-06-2018 01:46PM

demfad wrote: »

No its not. This is only necessary in a hard Brexit and would not be necessary under a proposed transition arrangement. It depends on what Brexit is likley to mean.

To keep the UKs type approval applying across the EU would require the UK to stay in the Single Market which the UK government have stated many, many times they absolutely will not do.

If the EU are not planning for what the UK government say Brexit will look like, the EU is not doing its job.

Red_Wake · 14-06-2018 01:48PM

He said: "When I left school in 1972, there were 35,000 workers at Rolls-Royce but now there are 12,000 and after this there will be even less.

"You talk of successful collaboration between Rolls-Royce and the Government but talk is cheap why not put workers on the boards of companies to represent the workforce? This is an example of the failure of shareholder capitalism."

Is he really blaming capitalism without apportioning anything to Brexit? Certainly reads that way.

Zubeneschamali · 14-06-2018 01:52PM

Red_Wake wrote: »

Is he really blaming capitalism without apportioning anything to Brexit? Certainly reads that way.

It would be the same in any heavy industry in the UK (or Germany) 1972 vs. 2018. Automation, just-in-time parts sourcing - manufacturing no longer employs masses of spanner-wielding lads in boiler suits.

Red_Wake · 14-06-2018 01:56PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Red_Wake wrote: »

Is he really blaming capitalism without apportioning anything to Brexit? Certainly reads that way.

It would be the same in any heavy industry in the UK (or Germany) 1972 vs. 2018. Automation, just-in-time parts sourcing - manufacturing no longer employs masses of spanner-wielding lads in boiler suits.

I'm referring to the just announced 4,600 job losses.

Admittedly, I made a balls of the quote.

Professor Moriarty · 14-06-2018 01:57PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It would be the same in any heavy industry in the UK (or Germany) 1972 vs. 2018. Automation, just-in-time parts sourcing - manufacturing no longer employs masses of spanner-wielding lads in boiler suits.

JIT will be taking a bit of a hit.

14-06-2018 03:01PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Where?

It was a joke.

Without the comma, "Doom? No Britain is booming and it's thanks to Brexit." means there is no Britain that is booming because of Brexit.

trellheim · 14-06-2018 04:07PM

JIT will be taking a bit of a hit.

The trouble with RR jobs is they can be the most highest skilled ones of all, hi performance jet engines like the Trent keep the A380 and the 787 , A330 and A350 so exactly the kind of jobs that you dont want leaving UK PLC

Nody · 14-06-2018 04:22PM

Nody wrote: »

I'm well aware of that and you are well aware off that but it is not us at the other side of the table but May and the three stooges. The same team that can't understand why they can't have all the benefits of an EU membership while leaving the EU. Hence in their world and reality they can negotiate until the 29th of March when EU will give in to their deals out of fear of a hard brexit being plucky Brits with a stiff upper lip and great cunning. And that is why I'm saying May will go to the parliament at said date for an approval of some sort even though it is way to late in reality simply because they think that's doable. The later the vote; the less chance of it getting voted down after all and as we know May will do anything at all to avoid being pushed out as PM; if that means sinking UKs economy by a hard brexit then so be it. At least ECJ is not going to stop her this time.

And once again I was sadly proven right in the incompetence of UK politicans.

The prime minister has agreed to the showdown, in February 2019, to avert a threatened revolt by pro-EU Tory rebels after talks today, The Independent has learned.

Full details of the amendment to be tabled to the EU Withdrawal Bill will be published later, ahead of a 5pm deadline for debating it in the House of Lords on Monday.

“Deal or no deal parliament will have a meaningful vote and to be clear there will be no hard #Brexit when the EU Withdrawal Bill is passed.”

So yea; "meaningful" vote in February inc. being able to stop a no deal crash out; exactly as I guessed. Seriously; how can you be this incompetent about something so basic as UK politician? They are paid to know this **** and I as a complete amateur has better understanding of the process than they do.

14-06-2018 04:38PM

trellheim wrote: »

The trouble with RR jobs is they can be the most highest skilled ones of all, hi performance jet engines like the Trent keep the A380 and the 787 , A330 and A350 so exactly the kind of jobs that you dont want leaving UK PLC

My reading of it is that those jobs will be fine. It's management and back office taking the hit.

mcmoustache · 14-06-2018 04:42PM

Nody wrote: »

And once again I was sadly proven right in the incompetence of UK politicans.

So yea; "meaningful" vote in February inc. being able to stop a no deal crash out; exactly as I guessed. Seriously; how can you be this incompetent about something so basic as UK politician? They are paid to know this **** and I as a complete amateur has better understanding of the process than they do.

This is the part that baffles me about the whole thing. Whether or not you agree with the positions of British politicians, they've tended to at least have some idea of what they're supposed to be doing. Even if they didn't know what they were doing, they at least listened to advisers and civil servants who did know.

This lot don't seem to know what they're doing at all. Did all the experts leave en masse? Are the experts still there but the leadership can't repeat to the public what they say? Does the leadership actually believe what they come out with?

I really don't understand this at all. They can't be this ignorant, can they?

Bit cynical · 14-06-2018 04:42PM

Red_Wake wrote: »

He said: "When I left school in 1972, there were 35,000 workers at Rolls-Royce but now there are 12,000 and after this there will be even less.

Is he really blaming capitalism without apportioning anything to Brexit? Certainly reads that way.

Something I've suggested here before is that as time goes on, Brexit itself will feature less and less when discussing the causal factors of economic events. Brexit becomes an accepted and more or less irreversible historic fact and therefore not really of interest.

Of course on forums such as this, people will continue to attribute negative events to brexit, but outside of this context, those attributions will seem repetitive and boring even among those who voted remain.

In some respects, those who want the UK to rejoin the EU would do better to shut up for a period of time rather than go on about it. Going on about it only maintains defensiveness and staunchness in the minds of the Brexit supporters and prevents the case for (re)joining the EU being looked at freshly.

flutered · 14-06-2018 05:28PM

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

Ouch! That's really going to hurt!:cool:

when all similar happenings are added up, there is already much hurt to the uk tresuary, add on a few more especially if the service sector goes tits up they will be in huge financial trouble

flatty · 14-06-2018 05:32PM

Even more huge. I genuinely expect there will be rioting in the end of it all. Doesn't take much at all.

briany · 14-06-2018 05:52PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

In some respects, those who want the UK to rejoin the EU would do better to shut up for a period of time rather than go on about it. Going on about it only maintains defensiveness and staunchness in the minds of the Brexit supporters and prevents the case for (re)joining the EU being looked at freshly.

I fear it'll take a long time before the Leave people forget, or are allowed by the tabloids to forget, about what would be framed as the spiteful intransigence of the EU in these negotiations. The interests that back Brexit not only want their Brexit, but will fight to keep it, too.

Before any talk of rejoining were to go ahead, you'd need to heal the division that the UK is facing over the EU. You'd think, wouldn't you, that a few years of economic turmoil would be enough to bring the UK back on to the EU side, but the refusal to admit you're wrong is a powerful force. That, plus the willingness to scapegoat.

Bit cynical · 14-06-2018 06:40PM

briany wrote: »

I fear it'll take a long time before the Leave people forget, or are allowed by the tabloids to forget, about what would be framed as the spiteful intransigence of the EU in these negotiations. The interests that back Brexit not only want their Brexit, but will fight to keep it, too.

Yes, it is in the interests of the tabloids to keep the Leave people wound up over Brexit and the Leave people oblige by getting wound up. Keep them futilely fighting the referendum that they already lost.

Before any talk of rejoining were to go ahead, you'd need to heal the division that the UK is facing over the EU. You'd think, wouldn't you, that a few years of economic turmoil would be enough to bring the UK back on to the EU side, but the refusal to admit you're wrong is a powerful force. That, plus the willingness to scapegoat.

Yes, but this healing requires an acceptance of the result. Although most Leave people are now longer trying to reverse the result but rather seeking a soft Brexit, a lot of time was lost. The problem was that they were in denial that they had lost. Now they are trying for a soft brexit but it is too late. Now they need to accept that it will not be a soft brexit.

First Up · 14-06-2018 06:56PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

briany wrote: »

I fear it'll take a long time before the Leave people forget, or are allowed by the tabloids to forget, about what would be framed as the spiteful intransigence of the EU

Yes, it is in the interests of the tabloids to keep the Leave people wound up over Brexit and the Leave people oblige by getting wound up. Keep them futilely fighting the referendum that they already lost.

Before any talk of rejoining were to go ahead, you'd need to heal the division that the UK is facing over the EU. You'd think, wouldn't you, that a few years of economic turmoil would be enough to bring the UK back on to the EU side, but the refusal to admit you're wrong is a powerful force. That, plus the willingness to scapegoat.

Yes, but this healing requires an acceptance of the result. Although most Leave people are now longer trying to reverse the result but rather seeking a soft Brexit, a lot of time was lost. The problem was that they were in denial that they had lost. Now they are trying for a soft brexit but it is too late. Now they need to accept that it will not be a soft brexit.

Your analysis would carry more weight if you didn't confuse Leave and Remain.

Capt'n Midnight · 14-06-2018 07:28PM

trellheim wrote: »

The trouble with RR jobs is they can be the most highest skilled ones of all, hi performance jet engines like the Trent keep the A380 and the 787 , A330 and A350 so exactly the kind of jobs that you dont want leaving UK PLC

Most of the job losses will be in the UK. They are supposedly middle management jobs, and even if they aren't it won't be easy for those affected to get similar well paid, stable jobs in the UK.

Also a lot less income tax.

Capt'n Midnight · 14-06-2018 07:49PM

What work has the UK actually done for Brexit ?
Yes it looks like they have managed to do a Euratom deal
And they didn't sell the border police stations,

But as far as I can see it's a case of "hope it'll be alright on the night"

Here it looks like we'll be able to tap into EU structural funds for ports and stuff.
EU draws up transport proposals for 'no deal' Brexit

Sinn Féin MEP Liadh Ní Riada has seen an internal document which details a series of "planned European Commission proposals" for "Brexit preparedness."

They deal with changes in a wide range of areas such as banking, imposing tariffs, energy efficiency, medicine, visa and transport.

Among the proposals is a plan to design a new maritime route to link Ireland and the continental part of the North Sea-Mediterranean corridor.

Capt'n Midnight · 14-06-2018 08:05PM

Like the border, the UK is still going through the motions on the financials and is looking being either a rule taker or Hard Brexit.

Bankers to ask May why they should stay in London after Brexit

Banks have already given up on efforts to keep full "passporting" in financial services that they currently enjoy as part of Britain's EU membership.
....

But financial services companies without an EU base may now have to fall back on the EU's current market access system known as equivalence, which banks and the British government have already rejected as unworkable.

Under equivalence, only Brussels would grant market access unlike mutual recognition in which Britain and Brussels would both have a say.

Nody · 14-06-2018 08:21PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

What work has the UK actually done for Brexit ?
Yes it looks like they have managed to do a Euratom deal

Are you sure? All I can find is the replacement bill which is not with Euratom and a deal with US which is not signed yet. Yes it has clauses how they wish to remain a member etc. if all else fail but that does not mean they will have it.

Capt'n Midnight · 14-06-2018 08:31PM

The UK looks like loosing lots of Galileo business.

If the UK actually had a special relationship with the US then they'd still have GPS access. That they are talking about spending billions replicating it says a lot about how they expect trade deals with the US are likely to go.

Upcoming GPS satellite launches show that this stuff is important.
June 17 Russian Glonass M navigation satellite.
June 20 Chinese two satellites for Beidou
July 25 Europe four Galileo satellites
October USA the first third-generation GPS satellite

McGiver · 14-06-2018 09:10PM

mcmoustache wrote: »

Nody wrote: »

And once again I was sadly proven right in the incompetence of UK politicans.

So yea; "meaningful" vote in February inc. being able to stop a no deal crash out; exactly as I guessed. Seriously; how can you be this incompetent about something so basic as UK politician? They are paid to know this **** and I as a complete amateur has better understanding of the process than they do.

This lot don't seem to know what they're doing at all. Did all the experts leave en masse? Are the experts still there but the leadership can't repeat to the public what they say?

They've had enough of experts

LeinsterDub · 14-06-2018 10:06PM

Will the Irish put up a border? Will a government that has always believed there should be a single government across the whole island of Ireland suddenly put up a wall? Is it going to be a Trump-like wall built by Mr Varadkar? The British government has repeatedly said it will not impose a border, so it is entirely up to Mr Varadkar, ” he told The Irish Times.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/rees-mogg-urges-may-to-call-ireland-s-bluff-on-border-1.3530989?mode=amp&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

To paraphrase Dirty Harry go ahead JRM make our day

An Claidheamh · 14-06-2018 11:12PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/rees-mogg-urges-may-to-call-ireland-s-bluff-on-border-1.3530989?mode=amp&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

To paraphrase Dirty Harry go ahead JRM make our day

" I think we should call that particular bluff.”

He claims FG have always wanted one government for all of Ireland, which is questionable considering their history before Varadkar and Coveney, and neglects to mention he does not, yet however, in Brexit land, this means it's Varadkar's fault if a wall goes up?
Also, wouldn't stopping the likes of this man be the thing to do to if we were ridding ourselves of our British visitors?

So basically he said we can agree something about trade later - won't say what it is - ignoring it affects the integrity of the whole EU, and probably the WTO, just so we can move on and help him and his anti-EU brigade.

I actually agree with him.

Let's see who's bluffing.

Bigus · 14-06-2018 11:22PM

I think we're gone from cakeism to a Tommy Cooper magic trick.

From the telegraph

Theresa May poised to give NHS £4bn-a-year boost funded by Brexit dividend, borrowing and income tax

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/06/14/theresa-may-poised-give-nhs-4bn-a-year-boost-funded-brexit-dividend/

J Mysterio · 14-06-2018 11:28PM

Even the Tories don't trust the Tories.

"Theresa May is heading for a fresh showdown with Conservative rebels next week after they rejected a government-drafted amendment to the EU withdrawal bill.

"The former minister Anna Soubry said she and her colleagues felt “badly let down” after they believed they had reached an agreement with the government – only to find the text had been redrafted at the last minute.

"More than a dozen Tory rebels believed they had been given a personal assurance by the prime minister, in a face-to-face meeting on Tuesday, that their concerns about the risk of a no-deal Brexit would be addressed.

"But instead of Grieve’s clause 5C, which would have allowed MPs to “direct” the government in the event of no deal, the new amendment just promised a debate on a motion “in neutral terms”.

- Guardian

How can anyone negotiation with another state under these conditions? How can any negotiating partner trust May and the gang of miscreants she has assembled? She already tried to wriggle out of the December Agreement ("no PM could agree to this" - eh, you did love), now she is accused of not keeping her word by her own party colleagues, who she seems to have tried to hoodwink to survive one more day.

Keep the glorious thing going, the sacred mission. Make Britain Great Again! Uh, I mean... Global Britain.. or something.

This latest troubling incident follows threats by the DexEU Minister - Davis - to resign over technicalities on a proposal that was already rejected at least a year or two previously, and for good reason. The EU position has always been clear, and with sound accompanying logic. The UK's wishes and desires have been as clear as mud as they have just careered into this thing headlong, with no direction, but plenty of emotion.

That incident - the threatened resignation - followed the Foreign Secretary telling select Tories that it would be great if Trump were leading the negotiations, as “you actually might get somewhere”. Saying this as he dined there in an exclusive club, quite relaxed, basically undermining his PM, which he has consistently done, and consistently been given a free pass to do. I think everyone in the UK cabinet has actually stabbed everyone else in the back at this stage?

It's an unmitigated disaster. The UK are actually arguing about what to do/ what will happen in the event of no deal... Instead of working to make a deal (thats on top of arguing about the Backstop, though it should 'never be used'). Nonetheless, it may ultimately be important to argue for this eventuality as it's certainly heading that way with this carry on.

So the 'Rebels' want to de-facto strip May of her PM authority when they think the need will be most critical, when the future of Britain will need to be taken from her hands to salvage something from the ruins. It will surely be too late at that stage though: Hard Brexit.

A divided cabinet, party, oppostition, parliament, country.

A nation that has had a collective mental lapse, a hugely significant failure in judgement. A demonstrable lack of maturity and self awareness. A sad, selfish, xenophobic campaign aided, abbeted and cheerleaded by egotistical, insincere, untrustworthy, ignorant careerist politicians and a gutter press of the worst sort. The issues were never properly debated, never really understood and a great majority of the nation never really did comprehend the enormity of the undertaking.

Peregrinus · 15-06-2018 01:21AM

Bigus wrote: »

I think we're gone from cakeism to a Tommy Cooper magic trick.

From the telegraph

Theresa May poised to give NHS £4bn-a-year boost funded by Brexit dividend, borrowing and income tax

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/06/14/theresa-may-poised-give-nhs-4bn-a-year-boost-funded-brexit-dividend/

"Brexit dividend"?

Brexit discussion thread III

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