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Brexit discussion thread III

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Comments

  • #9272
    Seth Brundle
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 44,884 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    David Davis wrote:
    the PM and I are very suprised how informed the EU leaders are, they read everything'.[/list]
    Christ almighty!

    Help Keep Boards Alive. Support us by going ad free today. See here: https://subscriptions.boards.ie/ .



  • #9273
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,088 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Seth Brundle wrote: »
    Christ almighty!

    That's a British trait though.

    They always seem to be very shocked at others knowledge of them and theirs.


  • #9274
    Charles Babbage
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,207 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    That's a British trait though.

    They always seem to be very shocked at others knowledge of them and theirs.


    The English went about making everyone learn their language and then they wonder why others know so much about them, and it isn't a pretty picture right now.


  • #9275
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,088 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    "How do you know so much about Brexit?"


  • #9276
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 28,401 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    flatty wrote: »
    So what does today's parliamentary vote actually mean?
    Is it an expected rubber stamp which means that a hard brexit is still the most likely outcome, or has anything unexpected happened, or actually changed?
    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    Having to concede points to Grieve essentially takes "no deal" off the table, even if the eventual outcome remains up in the air.
    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    May cannot use No Deal as leverage in negotiations.
    What An Ciarraioch and Francie said; May cannot use threat of "no deal" as leverage in negotiations with the EU. But a couple of points about that.

    1. She never could use it that way; it has no leverage. No deal would be bad for the EU but much, much worse for the UK. The UK knows this. The EU knows this. The UK knows that the EU knows this. As between the UK and the EU, "we'd prefer no deal!" is not a credible UK position, and you can't get leverage in negotiations by taking an incredible position.

    2. That's not to say no deal is an impossible outcome. It's impossible that the UK would choose no deal, but it's entirely possible that no deal will be the result of ineptitude, incompetence, idiocy, brinksmanship or the UK's general failure to get its act together.

    3. The real significance of the vote is not the implications it has for the EU/UK negotiations - none, basically - but the implications it has for the internal UK discourse. It makes it difficult for May to say, for domestic consumption, that she will threaten to opt for no deal. And it makes it difficult for the ultra-Brexiters to demand (with any credibility) that she should, since it is clear that she will not enjoy the confidence of Parliament if she does. So it weakens somewhat the strategic position of the hard Brexit camp in the (somewhat surreal) internal UK discourse.

    4. This, in turn, may somewhat improve the chances of the UK avoiding a crash-out Brexit, though it's hard to quantify that improvement. But a slightly weakened hard Brexit camp at home might mean that May is under slightly less pressure and has to engage in slightly less delay/brinksmanship/pretence, and so there is slightly less risk of the UK falling into a no-deal Brexit.


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  • #9277
    An Claidheamh
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,082 ✭✭✭An Claidheamh


    In our daily British ignorance update.

    Seems like some of their upper classes want to start a war in the North.

    How could it possibly backfire.......?


    https://mobile.twitter.com/seanwhelanrte/status/1006527293018296321


  • #9278
    flatty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,230 ✭✭✭flatty


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    flatty wrote: »
    So what does today's parliamentary vote actually mean?
    Is it an expected rubber stamp which means that a hard brexit is still the most likely outcome, or has anything unexpected happened, or actually changed?
    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    Having to concede points to Grieve essentially takes "no deal" off the table, even if the eventual outcome remains up in the air.
    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    May cannot use No Deal as leverage in negotiations.
    What An Ciarraioch and Francie said; May cannot use threat of "no deal" as leverage in negotiations with the EU. But a couple of points about that.

    1. She never could use it that way; it has no leverage. No deal would be bad for the EU but much, much worse for the UK. The UK knows this. The EU knows this. The UK knows that the EU knows this. As between the UK and the EU, "we'd prefer no deal!" is not a credible UK position, and you can't get leverage in negotiations by taking an incredible position.

    2. That's not to say no deal is an impossible outcome. It's impossible that the UK would choose no deal, but it's entirely possible that no deal will be the result of ineptitude, incompetence, idiocy, brinksmanship or the UK's general failure to get its act together.

    3. The real significance of the vote is not the implications it has for the EU/UK negotiations - none, basically - but the implications it has for the internal UK discourse. It makes it difficult for May to say, for domestic consumption, that she will threaten to opt for no deal. And it makes it difficult for the ultra-Brexiters to demand (with any credibility) that she should, since it is clear that she will not enjoy the confidence of Parliament if she does. So it weakens somewhat the strategic position of the hard Brexit camp in the (somewhat surreal) internal UK discourse.

    4. This, in turn, may somewhat improve the chances of the UK avoiding a crash-out Brexit, though it's hard to quantify that improvement. But a slightly weakened hard Brexit camp at home might mean that May is under slightly less pressure and has to engage in slightly less delay/brinksmanship/pretence, and so there is slightly less risk of the UK falling into a no-deal Brexit.
    Thankyou. That explained it very well.


  • #9279
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 28,401 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Just to add to what I said in my post above:

    The government has caved to some extent to the Tory Remainers, but they have yet to publish the precise wording of the amendment which will limit their ability to threaten a hard Brexit. The Tory Remainers are putting a particular spin on what has been agreed; the government a slightly different spin. When we get actual text of actual law, we may have a clearer view of what has been agreed and how much it constrains the government. Or, it may turn out that the agreement will fall apart.

    We won't have long to wait. The Bill is being allowed to go through the Commons now on the basis that when it goes back to the Lords (on Monday or Tuesday) the government will put in an amendment to give effect to their agreement with the Remainers. The Bill as amended in the Lords then comes back to the Commons for final approval later in the week. At that point we find out if the Remainers in the Commons agree that the amendment inserted by the government does reflect what they think they have agreed.


  • #9280
    Leroy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,271 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Looks like JRM is not exactly betting the house of Brexit being a complete success.

    https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1006803255870066689

    http://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/news/jacob-rees-moggs-boutique-reaches-out-to-europe-with-funds-deal/a1103017

    So we have Lawson getting French residency, Farage's kids have German passports and now JRM is actively looking to set up business outside of the UK ti make sure he maintains access to the EU.

    Why are they not being tasked with explaining why they are taking these steps when the local person in the UK will not have that option? Surely the people can see that they have been sold a pup?


  • #9281
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    An Claidheamh wrote: »
    In our daily British ignorance update.

    Seems like some of their upper classes want to start a war in the North.

    How could it possibly backfire.......?


    https://mobile.twitter.com/seanwhelanrte/status/1006527293018296321

    Actually, they are both far left academics. More Joseph Stalin than Jacob Rees-Mogg.


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  • #9282
    Igotadose
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,296 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    Actually, they are both far left academics. More Joseph Stalin than Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    Whatever they are, what a shockingly bad article, warmongering at its finest. Just bring the army in and set those pesky Irish to rights. From so-called academics, too, o.k. with people being killed to not stop Brexit.


  • #9283
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    The SNP walk out of the House of Commons on a point of order concerning votes, after a devolution debate concerning Brexit powers only lasted 15 minutes yesterday.


  • #9284
    An Claidheamh
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,082 ✭✭✭An Claidheamh


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    Actually, they are both far left academics. More Joseph Stalin than Jacob Rees-Mogg.

    That's correct, but they're still upper class who with the same jingoism and delusions.

    As was pointed out by some on twitter.

    They stink of the old 'British Irish Communist Organisation' an apparent left wing academic group in the 70/80s who blamed the whole Northern conflict on the nationalist victims - absolving Britain and the unionists of any guilt.
    Essentially, they believed Irish people should take their punishment for existing.

    Mary Robinson was a member.


  • #9285
    Igotadose
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,296 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    The SNP walk out of the House of Commons on a point of order concerning votes, after a devolution debate concerning Brexit powers only lasted 15 minutes yesterday.
    Their leader was expelled by the Speaker. Good to see emotions running high


  • #9286
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Both geographically and politically, looks like Holland will be one of our closest allies from 2019 onwards:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1006874879063396352


  • #9287
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Meanwhile, it appears part C of the Grieve amendment isn't even up for discussion:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1006879154527141888


  • #9288
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 28,401 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    Meanwhile, it appears part C of the Grieve amendment isn't even up for discussion:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1006879154527141888
    Yes, but an alternative to clause (c) is up for discussion. At least, that's what the Remainers think they've been told. They'll be quite cross if it turns out not to be true.

    Patience, young grasshopper! One way or the other, we should know by Tuesday.


  • #9289
    Leroy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,271 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    Meanwhile, it appears part C of the Grieve amendment isn't even up for discussion:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1006879154527141888

    Not surprised.

    The only thing I was surprised by was that they accepted the word of May and the government. They have basically spent every day since last December claiming that unless it is legally binding text then no agreement is real.

    They were played. May needed to get through the vote and achieved her aim. This government is living day to day. There is no overall plan, no strategy. Just get through the next 24 hours and start again.


  • #9290
    farmchoice
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,026 ✭✭✭farmchoice


    keir stamer speaking in the house at the moment has pretty much just outlined remaining in the customs union and single market. when asked about the ability to strike new trade deals the term he used is ''new trade deals stuck jointly with the EU''.



    this seems to single that the labour policy will be CU and SM, with some sort of arrangement where UK agree with all future new trade agreements, pretty much the exact position as it is now.


  • #9291
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    Not surprised.

    The only thing I was surprised by was that they accepted the word of May and the government. They have basically spent every day since last December claiming that unless it is legally binding text then no agreement is real.

    They were played. May needed to get through the vote and achieved her aim. This government is living day to day. There is no overall plan, no strategy. Just get through the next 24 hours and start again.

    From Matt's cartoon in The Telegraph: "So, the government lives to surrender another day."


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  • #9292
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    farmchoice wrote: »
    keir stamer speaking in the house at the moment has pretty much just outlined remaining in the customs union and single market. when asked about the ability to strike new trade deals the term he used is ''new trade deals stuck jointly with the EU''.



    this seems to single that the labour policy will be CU and SM, with some sort of arrangement where UK agree with all future new trade agreements, pretty much the exact position as it is now.

    Possibly more Duke of York stuff, but Faisal Islam's tweet is intriguing:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1006882047405719557


  • #9293
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    One overlooked vote yesterday saw the Patten amendment pass into law, after some slight alteration, with some Labour and Tory MPs suggesting only the softest of Brexits can meet its requirements:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/jun/13/brexit-parliament-wont-be-allowed-to-take-charge-of-talks-in-no-deal-scenario-minister-tells-tory-rebels-politics-live


  • #9294
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 11,998 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    One overlooked vote yesterday saw the Patten amendment pass into law, after some slight alteration, with some Labour and Tory MPs suggesting only the softest of Brexits can meet its requirements:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/jun/13/brexit-parliament-wont-be-allowed-to-take-charge-of-talks-in-no-deal-scenario-minister-tells-tory-rebels-politics-live


    Interesting.


  • #9295
    Dymo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭Dymo


    J Mysterio wrote: »
    Interesting.

    That is very interesting but typical, they don't care about the problem in the north and just want it to go away.


  • #9296
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    And Chuka Umunna, on a similar theme:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1006900129427648514


  • #9297
    Enzokk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,192 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Dymo wrote: »
    That is very interesting but typical, they don't care about the problem in the north and just want it to go away.


    The only way that the UK can now Brexit for what "people voted for" is by basically letting NI be separate from the rest of the UK due to the GFA. Either way someone will be peeved at the outcome of this. Either the "rebels" will need to actually rebel because they have been lied to, or DD will get to quit as he seems to want to do because his Brexit wishes is being waylaid. Or the DUP will be almighty let down when the UK decides its better for the country to have NI as a separate part of the UK due to their special circumstances.


  • #9298
    Leroy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,271 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Or they could leave with a hard border in NI.

    The Secretary response merely said that their intention was no border.


  • #9299
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,088 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    Both geographically and politically, looks like Holland will be one of our closest allies from 2019 onwards:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1006874879063396352

    So what you're saying is that the EU of which we are a member won't throw us under the Brexit bus?

    Shocking!


  • #9300
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 79,356 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    Or they could leave with a hard border in NI.

    The Secretary response merely said that their intention was no border.

    I said over a year ago that ultimately the DUP might be the ones shafted here. Not one care do the Torys for northern Ireland or the DUP.
    May knows that the wrath of Irish unionists can only damage Irish unionists. - The wrath of Irish republicans can damage her Brexit though as we can veto any deal. '
    Arlene and her crew have to hope that they remain in some sort of power share otherwise under the bus they will go.


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  • #9301
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 79,356 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    Or they could leave with a hard border in NI.

    The Secretary response merely said that their intention was no border.

    I said over a year ago that ultimately the DUP might be the ones shafted here. Not one care do the Torys for northern Ireland or the DUP.
    May knows that the wrath of Irish unionists can only damage Irish unionists. - The wrath of Irish republicans can damage her Brexit though as we can veto any deal. '
    Arlene and her crew have to hope that they remain in some sort of power share otherwise under the bus they will go.


This discussion has been closed.
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