Brexit discussion thread III

EdgeCase · 06-06-2018 10:15PM

dublinbuster wrote: »

The UK "plan" is text book Sun Tzu art of war

I’m not entirely convinced that there ever has been a UK plan beyond holding a referendum that was assumed to be rubber stamping of the status quo.

ancapailldorcha · 06-06-2018 10:57PM

No more name calling please. Posts deleted.

Peregrinus · 07-06-2018 02:23AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

He makes some good points. This is basically a man who has come to the realisation he had been sold a pup. Articulates it well though.

He's the editor of Leave HQ. What he writes here make sense, but the implication is not that he has been sold a pup; it's that he has been selling a pup.

In some ways he's more culpable than Brexiters who are simply idiots. He knows that a viable Brexit has yet to be developed, but he has been promoting Brexit anyway in the belief that its someone else's responsibility to develop it, not his.

Peregrinus · 07-06-2018 02:48AM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Combined with Peston's Spectator blog, it all suggests he has decided to quit post-haste:

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/06/will-david-davis-resign-tomorrow-i-would-not-bet-against-it/

Political Editor of the Sun (a paper which generally seems to be, um, well-connected to "sources close to Mr Davis") says Davis is telling his friends he will not resign:
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1004416869267320833

Laura Kuenssberg of the BBC also says he won't resign:
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1004418027344089090

Still, if he did resign, what do boardies think would happen? I think other Brexiters in cabinet would have to go too, and this would lead to a leadership heave in the Tory party.

Even if May were to survive this - and she very well might - it would mean taking more time that cannot now be spared out, to deal with leadership issues instead of working on Withdrawal Agreement.

Nody · 07-06-2018 06:10AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Still, if he did resign, what do boardies think would happen? I think other Brexiters in cabinet would have to go too, and this would lead to a leadership heave in the Tory party.

Even if May were to survive this - and she very well might - it would mean taking more time that cannot now be spared out, to deal with leadership issues instead of working on Withdrawal Agreement.

Nope; they would simply insist on him being replaced with another brexiteer instead; perhaps some shuffling around or giving the responsibility to Boris or similar. The part that amuses me though is they are fighting over the wording on a solution EU has already told them (unofficially) is going to be rejected. It does not matter if it does not have an end date because EU will reject it; so why the huffing and puffing?

Peregrinus · 07-06-2018 06:23AM

Can't resist this one:

https://twitter.com/brheading/status/1004442055031091200

Peregrinus · 07-06-2018 06:28AM

Nody wrote: »

Nope; they would simply insist on him being replaced with another brexiteer instead; perhaps some shuffling around or giving the responsibility to Boris or similar. The part that amuses me though is they are fighting over the wording on a solution EU has already told them (unofficially) is going to be rejected. It does not matter if it does not have an end date because EU will reject it; so why the huffing and puffing?

I dunno. If Davis goes because he is required by May to work for a Brexit that isn't Brexity enough, how can other remainers stay in cabinet and work for the same Brexit? Whoever May appoints to the vacancy has to be prepared to do what Davis has just refused to do. That's kind of awkward, and invites accusations of being a sellout. Plus, May would undoubtedly take the opportunity to say that any other cabinet minister who shares Davis's view should take the opportunity to say so, and walk.

Any Brexiter resigning from cabinet because he refuses to support the PM's vision of Brexit brings matters to a head; other Brexiters must either do the same, or be seen to engage in a humiliating climbdown, backing what Davis refused to back. My guess is that they'd do the same, and then immediately mount a leadership challenge. What else could they do, with any credibility?

McGiver · 07-06-2018 08:19AM

Norwegian PM in Brussels saying UK can't be cherry-picking and also saying soft Brexit makes no sense.

https://www.politico.eu/article/norwegian-pm-uk-cannot-cherry-pick-eu-membership/

mickoneill31 · 07-06-2018 09:22AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

What else could they do, with any credibility?

Is credibility a big concern for any in the UK government these days? We have examples every week of outright lies.

I listen to a few podcasts to do with brexit and two of them have a section called lie of the week. They normally have several runners up.

Kermit.de.frog · 07-06-2018 09:22AM

IDS speaking this morning...

https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1004638802231558144

Decoded - "we need to threaten Ireland, who do they think they are, EU puppets etc..."

mickoneill31 · 07-06-2018 09:25AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

IDS speaking this morning...

https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1004638802231558144

Well that moment came when the UK came out with the contradictory red lines. What was that? About day 1?

Anthracite · 07-06-2018 10:09AM

The interviewer there giving a classic example of not challenging any of the premises of the Brexiteers and tossing nice questions to them that fit in with the narrative of their fantasy world.

Kermit.de.frog · 07-06-2018 10:13AM

Anthracite wrote: »

The interviewer there giving a classic example of not challenging any of the premises of the Brexiteers and tossing nice questions to them that fit in with the narrative of their fantasy world.

The Brexiteer narrative is that ireland is so hopelessly dependent on the UK for it's trade that they don't get how an Irish gov would dare side with anyone else.

This is actually not the case but it suit their argument.

Also there is an element of just shock at the extent to which Ireland has taken it's own approach with the support of the EU that seems alien to them. Like they don't respect Ireland's own right to protect it's own interests.

Professor Moriarty · 07-06-2018 10:19AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Brexiteer narrative is that ireland is so hopelessly dependent on the UK for it's trade that they don't get how an Irish gov would dare side with anyone else.

This is actually not the case but it suit their argument.

Also there is an element of just shock at the extent to which Ireland has taken it's own approach with the support of the EU that seems alien to them. Like they don't respect Ireland's own right to protect it's own interests.

I wonder do they realise that their exports to us are worth $25 billion whereas our exports to them are worth $18 billion.

Kermit.de.frog · 07-06-2018 10:22AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I wonder do they realise that their exports to us are worth $25 billion whereas our exports to them are worth $18 billion.

Mostly they don't know because they couldn't be bothered with basic research.

Also this is the post Trump election world.

Fact does not come in to it so long as you have your own facts.

Anthracite · 07-06-2018 10:27AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I wonder do they realise that their exports to us are worth $25 billion whereas our exports to them are worth $18 billion.

Brexit logic therefore suggests that we hold the upper hand here and that UK car makers will force the UK to back down and agree to whatever we demand.

Kermit.de.frog · 07-06-2018 10:34AM

https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1004656199885836288

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1004656730427543553

Welcome to The Onion Zone

Professor Moriarty · 07-06-2018 10:48AM

Anthracite wrote: »

Brexit logic therefore suggests that we hold the upper hand here and that UK car makers will force the UK to back down and agree to whatever we demand.

I never realised that car makers ran the EU. You learn something new every day.

EdgeCase · 07-06-2018 10:51AM

Where does he get his figures on exports ?!
I find it odd that nobody in the UK media seems to have these figures at hand.

65% of Irish exports do not “end up in the UK” approximately 13.5% do.

As for Irish goods transiting the UK to the continent and elsewhere, if he wants to turn his nose up at significant % or the business of UK logistics companies, ports and airports and make the country into some kind of rogue state, using goods transportation embargoes politically, sort of like what Russia does with gas, well, good luck with that. You won’t be needing that 3rd runway at LHR due to being a hermit state backwater that nobody trusts anymore.

Businesses do not like having the rug pulled from under them by irrational political decisions that have no economic or business basis.

You also cannot take sanctions against one EU member like Ireland, you’d have to take on the whole EU and the consequences would be reciprocal and painful for the UK.

It’s a big export market for us, but it’s not our biggest. The US and Eurozone are bigger.

I find it incredible the way UK media outlets let these guys pluck illustrative figures out of thin air and go totally unchallenged.

Peregrinus · 07-06-2018 10:51AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I never realised that car makers ran the EU. You learn something new every day.

You may not have realised it, but every Brexiter learns it at his mother's knee.

Professor Moriarty · 07-06-2018 10:52AM

EdgeCase wrote: »

Where does he get his figures on exports ?!
I find it odd that nobody in the UK media seems to have these figures at hand.

65% of Irish exports do not “end up in the UK” approximately 13.5% do.

It’s a big export market for us, but it’s not our biggest. The US and Eurozone are bigger.

Perhaps he means that 65% of Irish exports pass through the UK. SNIP.

Cut out the name calling please.

Professor Moriarty · 07-06-2018 11:00AM

Fair enough - apologies.

EdgeCase · 07-06-2018 11:00AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Perhaps he means that 65% of Irish exports pass through the UK.

Which just means that UK logistics operators, ports and airports lose significant business.

Irish airfreight would just end up going more directly or via continental hubs like Amsterdam Schiphol, and you’ll get a lot more direct fright by sea to various continental ports.

If anything this is a big opportunity for Irish airports like Dublin, Cork and Shannon to grow direct freight connections elsewhere.

The consequences of the UK deliberately disrupting business for political reasons are dire for the UK, not for us. It’s going from a stable and business friendly location to one with serious regulatory challenges and chaotic politics, more like Russia.

Your business could be undermined at a whim due to jingosim, so why locate there?

Peregrinus · 07-06-2018 11:07AM

EdgeCase wrote: »

Which just means that UK logistics operators, ports and airports lose significant business.

Irish airfreight would just end up going more directly or via continental hubs like Amsterdam Schiphol, and you’ll get a lot more direct fright by sea to various continental ports.

If anything this is a big opportunity for Irish airports like Dublin, Cork and Shannon to grow direct freight connections elsewhere.

But it's also an expense for Irish exporters (and the consumers of imported products) since airfreight costs more, and sea routes avoiding the UK will cost more and/or invovle more delay. So, yeah, this damages us.

EdgeCase wrote: »

The consequences of the UK deliberately disrupting business for political reasons are dire for the UK, not for us. It’s going from a stable and business friendly location to one with serious regulatory challenges and chaotic politics, more like Russia.

They'd be dire for both of us, to be honest. I doubt that the UK will do this (in part for the reason you point out; the reputational damage they would inflict on themselves). But even the non-malicious disruptions caused by Brexit will be materially disadvantageous to us.

Professor Moriarty · 07-06-2018 11:07AM

EdgeCase wrote: »

Which just means that UK logistics operators, ports and airports lose significant business.

Irish airfreight would just end up going more directly or via continental hubs like Amsterdam Schiphol, and you’ll get a lot more direct fright by sea to various continental ports.

If anything this is a big opportunity for Irish airports like Dublin, Cork and Shannon to grow direct freight connections elsewhere.

And seaports in Wexford and Cork. That thought had occurred to me as well, that they would lose a lot of business by closing Ireland's routes through the UK or by making it difficult. I doubt if things will ever come to that, but if they did it might be a nettle that we would be glad to have grasped. In all of this, serious damage has already been done to UK trade with the EU. Many companies are shifting their focus away from the UK and will be very wary of committing to trade with the UK in the future lest the Eurosceptics gain power.

EdgeCase · 07-06-2018 11:15AM

I think the reputational damage is already inflicted, at least in part.

There’s just a benefit of the doubt afforded to the UK that I don’t think would be extended to many other countries. It’s because of the financial and media hub in London and an assumption that reality may eventually dawn and some kind of sanity may return to British politics.

If it doesn’t, I think the reputation as a business-friendly location is going to be in the toilet before long.

Bear in mind that UK policy impacting multinationals, including ones located here, is not something that will go without very negative consequences for the business friendly reputation the UK has enjoyed to-date.

You can keep saying “open Britain” and “business friendly” all you like, but if that’s just a smokescreen for undermining trade and political moves that damage businesses, well ... that’s your reputation becoming decidedly more like Russia or similar unstable regimes that politically interfer with trade and business.

At the end do the day, the uk hurting Irish or EU business = hurting major multinationals.

Changing regulations = undermining major multinational banks and financial institutions in London.

All of that counts towards making the UK less stable and less attractive as a place to invest.

Kermit.de.frog · 07-06-2018 11:34AM

UK Backstop proposal to be published today.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1004671906480644096

But EU has already rejected anything that does not apply to NI only.

Professor Moriarty · 07-06-2018 11:39AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

UK Backstop proposal to be published today.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1004671906480644096

But EU has already rejected anything that does not apply to NI only.

Exactly. The EU has already stated that this kind of fudge is unacceptable to them. It's really strange stuff. Obviously more about political careers and party than country. In fact, it's almost treasonous.

Kermit.de.frog · 07-06-2018 11:57AM

This is not over apparently.

ERG (Rees Mogg etc) demanding the UK's top civil servant dealing with Brexit resigns. They claim he is a remainer working against the UK.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1004679241613619200

Sam Russell · 07-06-2018 12:03PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is not over apparently.

ERG (Rees Mogg etc) demanding the UK's top civil servant dealing with Brexit resigns. They claim he is a remainer working against the UK.

If DD has not resigned, then neither will anyone else. It is all a bottle of smoke.

Brexit discussion thread III

Comments