Aryzta

Shauny2010 · 29-01-2018 2:15pm #1

A big food company that looks in serious trouble. Share price €0.23
Currently purging money as it looks to offload assets to balance the books.
The core business looks sound but then again it just a big bakery, and where would growth come from?
With a third of its value (€803 million) wiped off its market cap last week its drops like this that grab investors attention to see if maybe its oversold.
The question now is how low can this go, and can they turn it around?

littlevillage · 30-01-2018 7:38pm

Have been watching the share price fall.

Already own a few shares in Aryzta and was thinking of grabbing a few more. The fall has been catastrophic though and has left me spooked until it at least shows signs of bottoming out.

littlevillage · 31-01-2018 12:03pm

I think Aryzta might just be at the bottom today.... seems to be a bit of resistence to the Share price going too far below €21.90

s3ndnudes · 31-01-2018 1:12pm

Not sure if it's at the bottom and if there's actually any long term value in this stock. I know the recent price cliff dive is at least partly driven by the downgrades by analysts but I wonder does the current price capture the magnitude of:

EBITDA is likely to be down by 15% for their FY17 results
They seem to have proposed a strategy of disposal of non core business assets and companies but i've not yet read anything of significance on how they intend to create growth nor their strategy going forward that would leave me to believe they can create value for shareholders. Maybe the annual report might do a better job but i'm not sure how their going to turn around their core business....

Shauny2010 · 31-01-2018 4:44pm

I don`t see this as the bottom either. The debt is huge and acting as a millstone around the neck of the company.
Nothing worse than to be a distressed seller.
I`ll wait and see, but to me at 21.56 this looks expensive. I think this would only be worth a punt at half that price and even then their would have to be a restructure of the business

littlevillage · 01-02-2018 5:27pm

Aryzta up 5% today to €22.30 looks like yesterday was indeed the bottom (for now at least)

On Friday 26th during the recent sell off,

Investec Stockbrokers reckoned fair value is €22.50

Goodbody Stockbrokers reckon its €26

Remember, it was up around €34-€35 less than a month ago.

Soo who knows where we are heading from here ðŸ€”

s3ndnudes · 03-02-2018 2:50pm

Ye I agree- definitely going to be a bit of a bumpy ride I reckon. I see there is some more volatility again. From looking at my degiro it looks back down to € 21.98 or E-0.52 and -2.31%. While the sale of Aryzta's Cloverhill is likely to be a positive (i.e disposing of non-core assets) Ive seen some reports saying the proceeds is likely to be a lot less than anticipated (possible less than E100m) so maybe speculation around the value that will be realized on the sale of assets is being built into the price. I have never bought Aryzta shares but I'm very very tempted to see how this week plays out and if there's further decreases (maybe another 5% or so- I think ill buy!). I reckon there is another coupple of % to fall but maybe the bottom really is in site.

s3ndnudes · 08-02-2018 11:59am

littlevillage wrote: »

Aryzta up 5% today to €22.30 looks like yesterday was indeed the bottom (for now at least)”

Looks like we have a new bottom...for now at least

littlevillage · 08-02-2018 12:57pm

one day, one of us will be right ;-)

s3ndnudes · 08-02-2018 2:39pm

What are your thoughts on the stock at the current price of E20.56? Worth a punt or hold off to see what the annual report brings?

littlevillage · 28-03-2018 1:08pm

I'll probably be hounded out of town for suggesting this ...but is it time to start looking for value in Aryzta ?

(I'm down a good solid 30% on my previous investments over the Christmas/New Year, which I am still holding) .... but ever the optimism.

UBS investment trust has recently (22 Mar) purchased 6% of Aryzta. UBS is Swiss as is most of Aryzta ...do they know something, we don't?....for example is there a big annoucement on non core asset disposal imminent ?

Was in the market myself this morning trying to pick up some at €17 ...failed, because the price bounced quickly to €17.40... soo might just be life is this old feckin dog of a share yet ??

littlevillage · 18-04-2018 10:38am

Aryzta at €19 today. Nice little 10-11% profit for anybody who took my advice 3 weeks ago...when they were €17.

How high are they going to go??.....back to €30 hopefully (so I can re-coup my losses from last year) :-) but thats unlikely.

s3ndnudes · 25-04-2018 8:54pm

Nice profit if you managed to sell quick enough ! Took a big hit today...not sure why- my google alerts on them didn't show up anything.

Don't think im brave enough for them- at the last profit warning I held off and went for Playtech. Was showing great returns for a while but the regulation and cap on Fixed betting in the UK seems to be hitting them a bit. Still in the green for now...Also thinking of going into William Hill now after the discount they're trading at now.

Not sure i'm brave enough for Aryzta...finding it hard to put a valuation on them and what price i'm comfortable going in at....

littlevillage · 25-04-2018 11:17pm

With Arytza, I am still looking at a substantial loss overall, because of previous buys which were at too high prices.... but recently I just timed that buy+sell, perfectly :-)

If you are using Degiro, the share price information coming from the ISEQ is not always reliable and probably not real time either.....soo if you have alerts set up, they may not work as expected. I always double check elsewhere before placing buy/sell orders etc.

Shauny2010 · 24-05-2018 8:39am

More miserable news from the management. Share price slumps to 15c now.
EBITDA to be 9-12% lower than prior EBITDA guidance, for such a large etablished company, missing those targets show lack of management.
Falling revenue, rising costs from wages and raw materials they need to get a grip fairly lively now

lucky john · 24-05-2018 1:12pm

The 5 year chart makes interesting viewing. One hell of a falling knife.
Has to be a target for a take over or even some vulture fund though.

Viscount Aggro · 24-05-2018 6:52pm

A falling chainsaw.

We used to called this stock in the trade "oneofftheawrist-a"

Benildus · 25-05-2018 10:03am

I was advised 5/6 years ago to invest heavily into this company as they were going to make serious headway in the US on the basis of their acquisitions there. I've no idea why I ignored that advice but i'm glad i did.

It needs a significant shakeup and I have doubts that Gary McCann can do it

s3ndnudes · 25-05-2018 4:06pm

Anyone think now is a good entry point? I am tempted to buy with a good Price to Sales Ratio of 0.67- research from zack's investment shows on average that stocks with a Price to sales ratio of 1 tend to greatly outperform the market- but i'd imagine that ratio only holds through if sales don't keep falling, which they have been somewhat in Aryzta.

I'm tempted to buy now as I bought Greencore and Playtech after profit warnings and sold recently for a pretty good return and even a dividend from Playtech. One major thing that is putting me off is that unlike Greencore and Playtech where I love there products, I don't really like Aryzta's products in Ireland anyway. Cuisine de France and Otis Spunkmeyer as sold in Irish convenience stores seem to be always the stuff left behind! For the price they sell them for i'd rather get something more "fresh"- the bakery sections in Aldi and Lidl seem to me to be better quality or else one further step-up and go for some other independent bakery. Correct me if i'm wrong, maybe the Aldi and Lidl fresh bakeries are actually bakes from frozen Aryzta products!

Decision: possibly open a small position on it next week with medium term holding planned.

unkel · 29-05-2018 3:35pm

Bought some at €12.80 this morning. I've told people not to buy this for years, but surely at this price nothing can go wrong? :pac:

Shauny2010 · 30-05-2018 7:53am

unkel wrote: »

Bought some at €12.80 this morning. I've told people not to buy this for years, but surely at this price nothing can go wrong? :pac:

Has something changed or are you buying hoping for a rebound?

Skelet0n · 30-05-2018 8:22am

s3ndnudes wrote: »

Anyone think now is a good entry point? I am tempted to buy with a good Price to Sales Ratio of 0.67- research from zack's investment shows on average that stocks with a Price to sales ratio of 1 tend to greatly outperform the market- but i'd imagine that ratio only holds through if sales don't keep falling, which they have been somewhat in Aryzta.

I'm tempted to buy now as I bought Greencore and Playtech after profit warnings and sold recently for a pretty good return and even a dividend from Playtech. One major thing that is putting me off is that unlike Greencore and Playtech where I love there products, I don't really like Aryzta's products in Ireland anyway. Cuisine de France and Otis Spunkmeyer as sold in Irish convenience stores seem to be always the stuff left behind! For the price they sell them for i'd rather get something more "fresh"- the bakery sections in Aldi and Lidl seem to me to be better quality or else one further step-up and go for some other independent bakery. Correct me if i'm wrong, maybe the Aldi and Lidl fresh bakeries are actually bakes from frozen Aryzta products!

Decision: possibly open a small position on it next week with medium term holding planned.

Looks more like a value trap than a good buy to me, chart hasn't given much indication of an impending recovery.

nuac · 05-06-2018 10:32pm

Covered in SUnday Business Post this weekend.
Pessimistic

unkel · 26-06-2018 11:58am

That article took most of my considerable gain away

Read the article when you mentioned it, doesn't give much hope for improvements. Stock price hasn't moved much since the drop the day after the article. Sold today at 13.09 for a modest profit.

Shauny2010 · 09-08-2018 8:54am

Down Below €9 now. I had estimated that €8.60 would be a good entry point. But every day theirs some new bad news. The latest is they may be doing a cash call to the market. Doing one now after issuing more debt to pay dividend just shows the madness going on here. Just reading employee reviews about Aryzta tells enough about them.
I'm expecting further drops in the SP, if they don't get the act together soon this one could fail completely.

lucky john · 09-08-2018 9:15am

I can see no light at the end of this tunnel yet. They need to get a floor under the company somewhere.

Shauny2010 · 09-08-2018 9:25am

No,no light yet but I have this on the radar as we soon are approaching a point where the breakup value of the company far exceeds the market cap. Either way I'm on the fence for now

littlevillage · 10-08-2018 4:37pm

€7.70 today

Anyone have an idea of what the break-up value would be? I read somewhere (can't remember where) that the NAV (Net asset value) is about €18 per share.

If that's true then clearly a vulture fund etc. would be interested in snapping up the company now ....? But at what premium ????

I have been investing bit by bit as the SP fell over the last 10 months or so, in the hope that the turnaround is in sight....or that they get bought out at some kind of a premium.

As you can imagine, I'm nursing some heavy paper losses now..... :-(

howiya · 13-08-2018 2:22pm

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0813/984712-aryzta-seeks-to-raise-800m-to-ease-debt-burden/

michael garde · 02-11-2018 1:31am

I have 500 aryzta shares from the old iaws days,like many others i should have sold them a long time ago.
Based on todays agm, am i obliged to buy the new shares at 2.00 swiss francs each,assuming i had to buy the 10 new shares for 1 old share this would cost me 10,000 swiss/fr,can i buy a smaller amount of new shares.

How would it affect me if i did not buy any of the new shares

TaxPro · 02-11-2018 10:58am

michael garde wrote: »

I have 500 aryzta shares from the old iaws days,like many others i should have sold them a long time ago.
Based on todays agm, am i obliged to buy the new shares at 2.00 swiss francs each,assuming i had to buy the 10 new shares for 1 old share this would cost me 10,000 swiss/fr,can i buy a smaller amount of new shares.

How would it affect me if i did not buy any of the new shares

I'm also an owner of ARYZTA shares and want to understand what my options are now. Am I correct in saying it's one of three options in order not to lose 90% of the value of my current holding?

1. Exercise the rights
2. Sell the shares (before they become ex-rights)
3. Sell the rights but keep the original shares?

It's that last one I'm not so sure about - is that an option? Can you sell a right?

michael garde · 02-11-2018 9:51pm

Brendan Burgess has a good outline on aryzta on ASKABOUTMONEY,this was posted today.
Still a bit confused,but will probably take up new shares

littlevillage · 02-11-2018 11:06pm

michael garde wrote: »

Brendan Burgess has a good outline on aryzta on ASKABOUTMONEY,this was posted today.
Still a bit confused,but will probably take up new shares

Thanks for mentioning the ASKABOUTMONEY thread.

I posted an update there.

1 CHF = 0.87 Euro

Soo if you had 1 Aryzta Share your hypothetical 10 new shares would cost something like €8.70

Using the closing SP today in Dublin of €6.60, by my calculations the Arytza SP will be about €1.39 after the rights issue

(Pre Rights SP + €8.70) / 11 = Ex Rights SP
(€6.60 + €8.70) / 11 = €1.39

.....and of course this is where the win, lose or draw comes in.

You are actually only going to know on 19th Nov, if the purchase of the new rights Shares was worth it. By re-running the above Calculation again. This time already knowing the Ex Rights SP from the Stock Market that day to tell you if it was wise or not to sell at whatever Pre Rights Price you could have got on or before 7th Nov

I'll probably go for the new shares too. I have already lost a couple of Thousand on them in the last year, whats a few hundred more ? :rolleyes:

irish_major · 07-11-2018 3:42pm

Am I reading it properly? Down 77% today?

TaxPro · 07-11-2018 3:54pm

irish_major wrote: »

Am I reading it properly? Down 77% today?

Yes you're reading it correctly and this is entirely expected when a rights issue of this magnitude is effected. What's being quoted now is the ex-rights price, i.e. the value of the rights which have just been issued is not included.

irish_major · 07-11-2018 4:09pm

TaxPro wrote: »

Yes you're reading it correctly and this is entirely expected when a rights issue of this magnitude is effected. What's being quoted now is the ex-rights price, i.e. the value of the rights which have just been issued is not included.

Ah yes. Would it be a good time to buy I wonder?

littlevillage · 07-11-2018 5:56pm

Read my previous post. For existing shareholders anything above €1.39 and you're making money.

As regards a new buyer, hard to say. Maybe watch the market for a few days.

Bandana boy · 07-11-2018 6:18pm

I am still a little lost
Was expecting i would have been contacted by DEGIRO by now

Can someone explain what happens if you do nothing ? And will Degiro contact me and offer a way to buy the new share ?

cute geoge · 08-11-2018 8:26pm

I own shares in aryzta by way of cdi held in nominee account ,i have got no details of this rights issue ,what can i do to participate .Is time running out to participate

cute geoge · 09-11-2018 1:44pm

TaxPro wrote: »

I'm also an owner of ARYZTA shares and want to understand what my options are now. Am I correct in saying it's one of three options in order not to lose 90% of the value of my current holding?

1. Exercise the rights
2. Sell the shares (before they become ex-rights)
3. Sell the rights but keep the original shares?

It's that last one I'm not so sure about - is that an option? Can you sell a right?

It is a living nightmare for small shareholders and they probably will be all wiped out by monday .A bit of info over in ask about for anyone in trouble

Shauny2010 · 12-11-2018 9:02am

This cash call to the market has really wiped out investors here. The timeline for the share options was very short and it looks like the Irish investors could not sell their options either. Its poor form and doesn't inspire confidence in the management.
I can't see the share price holding, and when the dust settles it could be around €0.65-€0.90.

TaxPro · 12-11-2018 10:53am

DeGiro have issued their email this morning to shareholders on their options for the rights issue. You can either subscribe for the shares or not (no possibility of selling rights).

But you have until 12:00 CET (11am Irish time) today to respond if you want to exercise - so act NOW or you will default to losing your rights.

I hold shares traded on the Irish stock exchange so perhaps am in a minority (maybe the Swiss shareholders were given some more time), but seems a bit poor from DeGiro to leave such little time for action.

Shauny2010 · 12-11-2018 11:14am

If I was a shareholder and not in a position to exercise the stock options I'd be fair pissed now.
A phone call to the financial regulator wouldn't go amiss now or are they gone back to sleep again?

i71jskz5xu42pb · 12-11-2018 11:23am

TaxPro wrote: »

I hold shares traded on the Irish stock exchange so perhaps am in a minority (maybe the Swiss shareholders were given some more time), but seems a bit poor from DeGiro to leave such little time for action.

I'd emailed the Corporate Actions Ireland email address on Friday afternoon to see what was going on. I got the same email as you, 8:45 this morning with a deadline to respond by 11:00. Really poor from Degiro.

littlevillage · 12-11-2018 3:02pm

I used Davy stockbrokers today to exercise my options. They gave a deadline of COB today. Soo not sure why Degiro are soo perscriptive with an 11am cutoff?

nim1bdeh38l2cw · 14-11-2018 1:12pm

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/agribusiness-and-food/aryzta-investors-lose-90-of-stake-in-business-1.3696898

i71jskz5xu42pb · 14-11-2018 1:37pm

Kase Better Teammate wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/agribusiness-and-food/aryzta-investors-lose-90-of-stake-in-business-1.3696898

Mind boggles as to what Aryzta were trying to do here. Surely if they are doing a rights issues they want people to take up those rights and get the money in? I'm not in the group mentioned in the article but nonetheless didn't get funds to Degiro in time to avail of the rights issue. Might be a blessing in disguise, could be good money after bad.

TaxPro · 14-11-2018 1:48pm

Nathanael Elegant Blonde wrote: »

Mind boggles as to what Aryzta were trying to do here. Surely if they are doing a rights issues they want people to take up those rights and get the money in? I'm not in the group mentioned in the article but nonetheless didn't get funds to Degiro in time to avail of the rights issue. Might be a blessing in disguise, could be good money after bad.

From Aryzta's perspective they were going to get the money in regardless as it was underwritten by the banks, i.e. if someone doesn't take up or sell their rights, the banks would exercise them. It was presumably those underwriting banks which demanded a hefty 10 for 1 rights issue as they feared such a weak company would struggle to get enough interest, and didn't want to be left with a whole load of Aryzta shares.

There is a separate issue with the brokers themselves responsible for allowing shareholders to exercise their rights, which is outside the control of Aryzta. The peculiar setup of owning EUR shares on the Irish stock exchange but exercising CHF rights to acquire shares on the Swiss stock exchange, all through a UK broker (Link), may have been too much to handle.

cute geoge · 14-11-2018 1:58pm

TaxPro wrote: »

From Aryzta's perspective they were going to get the money in regardless as it was underwritten by the banks, i.e. if someone doesn't take up or sell their rights, the banks would exercise them. It was presumably those underwriting banks which demanded a hefty 10 for 1 rights issue as they feared such a weak company would struggle to get enough interest, and didn't want to be left with a whole load of Aryzta shares.

There is a separate issue with the brokers themselves responsible for allowing shareholders to exercise their rights, which is outside the control of Aryzta. The peculiar setup of owning EUR shares on the Irish stock exchange but exercising CHF rights to acquire shares on the Swiss stock exchange, all through a UK broker (Link), may have been too much to handle.

It is game over so for all the small irish shareholder ,notified on tuesday that they could buy rights,but the cut off date was the previous monday at 10am .Surely LINK (the broker) has a case to answer to the financial regulator or has the regulator gone back to sleep again

TaxPro · 14-11-2018 2:03pm

cute geoge wrote: »

It is game over so for all the small irish shareholder ,notified on tuesday that they could buy rights,but the cut off date was the previous monday at 10am .Surely LINK (the broker) has a case to answer to the financial regulator or has the regulator gone back to sleep again

Someone over in the Askaboutmoney thread said they contacted Aryzta regarding the LINK issue and they said they were trying to resolve it so there may still be hope for those shareholders (maybe not DeGiro shareholders though)

Aryzta

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