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Migration Megathread

  • 09-05-2018 11:43pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 519 ✭✭✭splashuum


    Would like to get peoples opinions on this.
    There seems to be many writers/figures that share a similar view while claiming similar stats.

    “Mark Steyn aims to show in a video how Western Europe is apparently already in the death throes of “demographic suicide” because couples are no longer having enough children. He then shows how a thriving Muslim population in Western Europe is well on its way to filling all the empty space. “

    “Steyn explained how given the divergent birth rate between Muslims and post-Christian secularists, it will take only two generations for the current Muslim population (sitting at about 10-percent) to have as many grandchildren as post-Christian secularists (who currently make up the other 90 percent). This is due, he said, to Muslims having on average 3.5 children per couple compared to post-Christian secularists who have only 1.3 children per couple”

    https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/muslim-takeover-of-europe-is-biggest-story-of-our-time-and-nobody-knows-it

    ? 3 votes

    1
    66% 2 votes
    1
    33% 1 vote


«13456745

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    As far as I'm concerned, everyone should be encouraged and incentivised to have fewer children. Many of the problems we face as a species, from property prices all the way up to some of the wars, can be traced back to the fact that there are more and more people competing for the same limited amount of resources and space to live in.

    It's simple maths. A chocolate bar divided between three people gives each individual more chocolate than the same bar divided between four. The world has reached a point in which exponential population growth is guarantee to cause falling and eventually plummeting quality of life due to this. If we went future generations to actually enjoy living on this planet, we need to seriously reign in population growth so that they have enough space and resources to go around without seeing their quality of life evaporate.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,676 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    I'm not sure where they're getting the "nobody knows" bit. The demographic situation in Europe, and its implications for migration, are widely discussed. Have these people been living under a rock?

    The article is absurdly oversimplified. It states without evidence or argument the the population of Europe is composed entirely of Muslims and post-Christian secularists. (Really? There are no other groups? Like, you know, actual Christians?) It assumes that there will be no intermarriage between migrants and the indigenous population, which is very much contrary to the European experience to date. It assumes that fertility rates will not change either in the migrant group or the indigenous group during the next two generations, despite the fact that in both groups they have changed significantly in the past two generations and, indeed, in much shorter time frames than that.

    On these rather improbable assumptions, the author calculates that there will be a Muslim majority in Western Europe within two generations, starting from a current Muslim population of 10%. The Muslim population of the EU is in fact 3.8% but, since that fact is inconvenient, the author simply substitutes an "alternative fact" of his own, which will result in his calculation producing the answer that he has decided in advance that he wants.

    All this is explained when we get about two-thirds of the way into the article and we discover that it's a puff-piece for speech of Donald Trump's in which, with astonishing hypocrisy, he calls for "the defense of Christianity that underpins all of Western Civilization". Right, so. We're dealing with Trumpery here.

    You want opinions about this article? My opinions is that it's nonsense. Trumpish nonsense.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,901 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    So we ve had 'the evil ones', 'the Muslims', 'the blacks', what else?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 417 ✭✭Mancomb Seepgood




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,543 ✭✭✭denismc


    I don't know who that guy is but I'd say maths wasn't his strongest subject in school!


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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,333 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    So we ve had 'the evil ones', 'the Muslims', 'the blacks', what else?
    The paddies; the rednecks, the krauts, the yids, the turks (remember they were taking over Germany in the 80s!), the camel ****ers...


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,269 Mod ✭✭✭✭Chips Lovell


    I read the thread title and thought "that's like something Mark Steyn would come out with" and then realised that it was Mark Steyn.

    He's been saying the same thing for at least 15 years and possible 20 years. Despite it being debunked numerous times, as Peregrinus has done above, he's never changed his tune.

    He's a Canadian, who lives in the US, so doesn't have to look too far to find out what fertility rates in second and third generation immigrants are like, but I doubt he's too interested.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,333 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    I read the thread title and thought "that's like something Mark Steyn would come out with" and then realised that it was Mark Steyn.

    He's been saying the same thing for at least 15 years and possible 20 years. Despite it being debunked numerous times, as Peregrinus has done above, he's never changed his tune.

    He's a Canadian, who lives in the US, so doesn't have to look too far to find out what fertility rates in second and third generation immigrants are like, but I doubt he's too interested.
    Reminds me of the UKIP crew who wants to move to Hungary as they don't take in foreigners there; of course that they would be foreigners and could only make the move due to EU does not register because whites are clearly not foreigners...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,747 ✭✭✭✭wes


    Mark Steyn, really? What rock did he crawl out from? Its amazing to see this kind of recycled Nazi nonsense coming up again. This kind of racism (yes I am using racism as Muslims are being treated as a race by Steyn and his ilk) is being used by the far right to radicalize people, and we have already seen such nonsense inspire far right terrorism in the Europe, the US and Canada.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,354 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Nody wrote: »
    The paddies; the rednecks, the krauts, the yids, the turks (remember they were taking over Germany in the 80s!), the camel ****ers...

    Sounds like the lab scene in Dirty Harry

    De Georgio: "Harry hates everybody. Limeys, Micks, Hebes, Fat Dagos, N****rs, Honkies, Chinks, you name it."

    Gonzales: "How does he feel about Mexicans?"

    De Georgio: "Ask him."

    Harry Callahan: "Especially Spics."


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,605 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    I'm not sure where they're getting the "nobody knows" bit. The demographic situation in Europe, and its implications for migration, are widely discussed. Have these people been living under a rock?

    Perhaps its a reference to the relative level of discussion to the importance of the discussion. 500 years from now, when scholars look at contemporary events, will the age be defined by A) Brexit, or B) mass immigration into Europe? Clearly the latter is the much more significant event of our time, but Brexit has a dedicated thread onto its third iteration, so a minimum of 28,000 posts whereas the latter, if it is raised at all is diminished and dismissed.

    I think in some ways it's similar to climate change. People may accept its happening, but its not discussed to the level it ought to be. Brexit fits into short term political and media horizons which only extend to the next election. Climate change, and demographic change on the other hand is perceived as being almost irrelevant by comparison. It will be someone else's problem, and lets face it there is a certain level of wilful denial, funded by corporations and NGOs in both cases.
    The article is absurdly oversimplified. It states without evidence or argument the the population of Europe is composed entirely of Muslims and post-Christian secularists. (Really? There are no other groups? Like, you know, actual Christians?) It assumes that there will be no intermarriage between migrants and the indigenous population, which is very much contrary to the European experience to date. It assumes that fertility rates will not change either in the migrant group or the indigenous group during the next two generations, despite the fact that in both groups they have changed significantly in the past two generations and, indeed, in much shorter time frames than that.

    I think we need to differentiate between the article, which is by a guy called Pete Baklinski, and the video which the article describes. Steyn is the author of the video. The criticism seems to be treating each as being one and the same. All the other linked stories on that site reference Catholic or Christian topics so I think the focus on Christianity in this topic is Baklinski. Steyn doesn't dwell on it bar two passing references in a 25 minute video. The closest I can match Baklinkski's summary to Steyn's views is that he compares the family sizes of incoming Muslim immigrants to 30% of German women being childless at 12:42. The 10% vs.90% figures (which you mention below) is stated by Steyn (around 13:04 continuing) as being about the Muslim population of France (not Europe).

    And I don't consider it an unusual flaw to base projections on current trends.
    On these rather improbable assumptions, the author calculates that there will be a Muslim majority in Western Europe within two generations, starting from a current Muslim population of 10%. The Muslim population of the EU is in fact 3.8% but, since that fact is inconvenient, the author simply substitutes an "alternative fact" of his own, which will result in his calculation producing the answer that he has decided in advance that he wants.

    He doesn't say a majority. He says on current trends of family size, the 90% will have 38 grand children. And the 10% will have 32 grand children. Not a majority, but rapid demographic shifts all the same.

    Now you are dismissing this as alarmist, but lets cast our mind back some years. In 1960 the USA was 88.6% white. In 1965, the US passed a new immigration act which opened migration from the world. Americans were assured nothing significant would occur as a result. 51 years later, perhaps two generations to white Americans who increasingly have children later white American children are a minority in the USA. . That is massive, massive demographic change in just two generations. While Hollywood still portrays this idyllic small town white middle America to foreigners, its increasingly not the present and it is certainly not the future. The increasingly political polarisation and racial identity politics which produced Trump are just a symptom of this demographic change which nobody in 1965 America asked for.

    As for the highlighted piece, I think its you who is shuffling the numbers to more convenient truths. The 3.8% figure for EU population is disingenuous. The Muslim (and wider migrant) population is not evenly distributed across the EU. It is heavily focused in Western Europe and even in particular regions within Western Europe where the population % is a lot higher than 3.8%, or even 10%. It is not alarmist to note that these demographics are going one way when indigenous Europeans are older and have less children. Pew Research is projecting under *current* migration numbers (no increase required), Sweden will be 30% Muslim by 2050. And that is just Muslim migrants. With non-Muslim migrants, the indigenous Swedes are going to be approaching minority status within their own homeland unless they close the open door policy.

    Now maybe you think this is a good thing. Maybe you think it is a bad thing. But its disingenuous to pretend its a conspiracy theory.
    All this is explained when we get about two-thirds of the way into the article and we discover that it's a puff-piece for speech of Donald Trump's in which, with astonishing hypocrisy, he calls for "the defense of Christianity that underpins all of Western Civilization". Right, so. We're dealing with Trumpery here.

    You want opinions about this article? My opinions is that it's nonsense. Trumpish nonsense.

    See above. Diminish and dismiss is the typical approach, but it is very obvious and clearly acknowledged that if a European country stops having children, and import hundreds of thousands of non-European migrants every year who are having children...in 100 years it wont be a European country in more than the geographical sense. Ask the Aboriginals in the now Australia. Ask the Native Americans in the now USA. Ask the First Peoples in the now Canada.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,013 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    There's people up north have the same fear about Catholics.
    Is the problem we'll have Israeli, Nigerian, Australian or other types of foreigner coming over disturbing the cabbage pot or just Muslims or Muslims from specific countries? How do you decide who's worthy and who's not? Purely based on ethnicity or religion? Surely we should vet everyone the same ignoring any fantasist religious beliefs?
    Or is the subtext the 'Muslim menace'?

    The fact is populations change over time. We all live on the same planet, if Ireland becomes a Muslim majority country, that's nature at work. There was a time we had no Catholics in Ireland. This all revolves back to protectionism. How things are now for me are fine. Any equality or change in that is seen as a threat and it's understandable people become fearful of change. As borne out in the like of the US where we actually have the descendants of conquers and immigrants campaigning against immigrants and fearful of being conquered. The Aboriginals, Irish, First nations and Palestinians would have been right to be fearful on their 'settlers' from abroad. Maybe the great white west is fearful it might get a taste of it's own medicine.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,605 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    There's people up north have the same fear about Catholics.

    Yes, and that demonstrates how deep and damaging demographic divisions can go. We have two populations, both Christian, both white (so indistinguishable from each other) and even drawn from the same Gaelic heritage if you go back far enough. And still intensely bitter hatreds and political division that has endured for 400 years and could endure for another 400. Why would you want to repeat this experience across western Europe?

    Are you really betting and European and non-European groups who have much greater differences are going to get on better? The history of the former Yugoslavia doesn't bode well, let alone current events where suicide bombings and truck rampages are now a thing in Europe that requires tens of thousands of soldiers patrolling city streets. Where-ever you find diversity, you find conflict and atrocities.
    The fact is populations change over time. We all live on the same planet, if Ireland becomes a Muslim majority country, that's nature at work.

    This is not nature. This is policy. Look at the US 1965 Immigration Act. That was a political choice, it was not a natural occurrence. The US was actually *more* white in 1965 than the USA was throughout the 19th century. After the 1965 act that has collapsed in just 50 years. That was a choice. Many western European governments are also making or have made choices, but you don't see it discussed openly in political manifestos. If you want to see this sort of demographic change, then seek a mandate for it openly. Don't piss on my back and tell me its raining.
    There was a time we had no Catholics in Ireland. This all revolves back to protectionism. How things are now for me are fine. Any equality or change in that is seen as a threat and it's understandable people become fearful of change. As borne out in the like of the US where we actually have the descendants of conquers and immigrants campaigning against immigrants and fearful of being conquered. The Aboriginals, First nations and Palestinians would have been right to be fearful on their 'settlers' from abroad. Maybe the great white west is fearful it might get a taste of it's own medicine.

    So is this demographic change supposed to be a positive or a punishment?

    Lets look at how it goes for whites in America. They are passing into minority status, and for the past 70 years their fellow citizens have been told that whites have undue power and wealth, that they cheated and stole it, and that they have misused it to oppress others. Lets see how that situation develops and see if they do indeed get a taste of their own medicine as you put it. Preferably from a distance.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,399 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    Good posts from Sands and - even if you don't agree with the other side - this has to be a valid topic of discussion. 'Immigration good' is something arguable, not something that is beyond fact or free of nuance.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,538 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    Good posts from Sands and - even if you don't agree with the other side - this has to be a valid topic of discussion. 'Immigration good' is something arguable, not something that is beyond fact or free of nuance.

    If that is a pop at me or the other mods, we have no intention of closing this thread. I'm not going to discuss moderation here so please don't respond to that. I just wanted to make that clear.

    With respect, "Immigration good" as you so put it is a very vague statement. I think that it is a good thing but it needs to be managed. If white people in Western Europe and the US are having fewer children then I think that it is fair to wonder why.

    Here in the UK, it simply isn't affordable for the working class and often people in the middle class to have children. Social housing has been largely sold off, Rents are through the roof, the jobs for life some of our parents enjoyed are gone and insecure "McJobs" are a pretty strong disincentive to enduring the financial burden that even a single child would represent. I live in Zone 4 and a 2-bed flat in my area would cost well over ten times my net income. I could leave but then I'd struggle to find work that would pay enough for me to support a child. Many people are in this situation. Manufacturing and many low skilled jobs have either emigrated or become automated. Unless things change for people on lower incomes, you're going to see the size of certain demographics shrink.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,676 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Just to add to what ACD says, if "people in Western Europe and the US are having fewer children", then that in itself is a factor which tends to suggest that immigration will be good. The continuing health of society and economy in Western Europe and the US requires future generations of workers, and if fertility does not supply this then migration will. To that extent, immigration isn't so much a threat to "western civilisation" as a necessary condition for its survival. That is, if we take "civilisation" to be dependent on a strong and healthy economy.

    ACD raises some good questions about why our birthrate is so low. If he is right in thinking that social and economic insecurity discourages people from having children, then we should expect migrants who move into the same insecure housing, employment etc conditions not to sustain high birth rates; their birth rates will fall in response to the same incentives that have led to the fall already observed in the indigenous population.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,399 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    If that is a pop at me or the other mods, we have no intention of closing this thread. I'm not going to discuss moderation here so please don't respond to that. I just wanted to make that clear.

    Was absolutely *not* having a pop at moderation of this forum. It's exceptionally well facilitated and moderated and has always been an excellent space on boards. I hope it's okay to clarify that.
    With respect, "Immigration good" as you so put it is a very vague statement. I think that it is a good thing but it needs to be managed. If white people in Western Europe and the US are having fewer children then I think that it is fair to wonder why.

    Here in the UK, it simply isn't affordable for the working class and often people in the middle class to have children. Social housing has been largely sold off, Rents are through the roof, the jobs for life some of our parents enjoyed are gone and insecure "McJobs" are a pretty strong disincentive to enduring the financial burden that even a single child would represent. I live in Zone 4 and a 2-bed flat in my area would cost well over ten times my net income. I could leave but then I'd struggle to find work that would pay enough for me to support a child. Many people are in this situation. Manufacturing and many low skilled jobs have either emigrated or become automated. Unless things change for people on lower incomes, you're going to see the size of certain demographics shrink.

    I believe managed immigration is absolutely necessary for successful open economies. I am suspicious of many of the over simplified arguments against it over the past half decade. As you illustrate we're experiencing a perfect storm of a near decade of savage austerity allied to an incredibly soft and unimpactful recovery outside of London allied to the Syrian refugee crisis allied to nefarious political opportunists looking to capitalize upon that situation for other reasons. But we still need to talk about all of this. Some elements of the political spectrum have tried to stigmatize raising this discussion.

    The ultimate answer here may very well be a simple case of resetting expectations downwards for certain sectors of the population in the West. You will be poorer than your parents, you will have less opportunities and you need to invest more time, effort and money into the ones that are made available to you. No politician is willing to say that yet, but we certainly can't pretend there isn't a problem. People aren't imagining that they're doing worse than their parents. I'm much more highly educated, mobile and remunerated than my Dad was at this age and securing an equivalent quality of home is an impossibility.

    Am I conflating multiple things by saying that? Yes. Is it possible to keep these issues in separate compartments? I don't believe so.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,558 ✭✭✭weisses


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    Good posts from Sands and - even if you don't agree with the other side - this has to be a valid topic of discussion. 'Immigration good' is something arguable, not something that is beyond fact or free of nuance.

    Maybe look this topic up in the cafe archieve. ... It has about 40000 posts rambling on about the same issue


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,269 Mod ✭✭✭✭Chips Lovell


    Sand wrote: »
    In 1960 the USA was 88.6% white. In 1965, the US passed a new immigration act which opened migration from the world. Americans were assured nothing significant would occur as a result. 51 years later, perhaps two generations to white Americans who increasingly have children later white American children are a minority in the USA. . That is massive, massive demographic change in just two generations.

    America has been undergoing massive demographic change since the 18th century. All of these "white" people you mention are themselves immigrants or the descendants of immigrants. I don't know what skin colour has to do with it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,676 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Sand wrote: »
    . . . In 1960 the USA was 88.6% white. In 1965, the US passed a new immigration act which opened migration from the world. Americans were assured nothing significant would occur as a result. 51 years later, perhaps two generations to white Americans who increasingly have children later white American children are a minority in the USA. . That is massive, massive demographic change in just two generations.
    Yes, but nothing signficant has occurred. America is just as American, and Americans are just as American, as they were in 1960. White American children may be a minority (if we classify children of Latino heritage as "not white"), but so what? Skin colour is an incredibly trivial thing.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,399 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    Skin colour is an incredibly trivial thing. But often (not always of course) it is underpinned by very distinct cultural behaviours, expectations and histories. As such, 'white people are doing less well' can mean 'people from specific areas are doing less well'; 'people from specific socio economic leanings are doing less well'; 'people traditionally employed in these sectors are getting hammered' etc, etc, etc.

    Being fretful about any of this because of petty issues with skin colour or religious persuasion is obviously nonsense. But asking the question about the other things (while being deliberately inclusive on the trivial differentiation points) is not. I accept that it's hard to sort between those doing the latter and not the former.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,538 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    I believe managed immigration is absolutely necessary for successful open economies. I am suspicious of many of the over simplified arguments against it over the past half decade. As you illustrate we're experiencing a perfect storm of a near decade of savage austerity allied to an incredibly soft and unimpactful recovery outside of London allied to the Syrian refugee crisis allied to nefarious political opportunists looking to capitalize upon that situation for other reasons. But we still need to talk about all of this. Some elements of the political spectrum have tried to stigmatize raising this discussion.

    The ultimate answer here may very well be a simple case of resetting expectations downwards for certain sectors of the population in the West. You will be poorer than your parents, you will have less opportunities and you need to invest more time, effort and money into the ones that are made available to you. No politician is willing to say that yet, but we certainly can't pretend there isn't a problem. People aren't imagining that they're doing worse than their parents. I'm much more highly educated, mobile and remunerated than my Dad was at this age and securing an equivalent quality of home is an impossibility.

    Am I conflating multiple things by saying that? Yes. Is it possible to keep these issues in separate compartments? I don't believe so.

    The problem with resetting expectations is twofold. The first is that we now see widening inequality with billionaires and corporations paying next to no tax. The second is that attempting to set lukewarm expectations on what the next government can achieve opens the door for populists who will promise the world. It is also the reason why separating issues of migration, equality, housing supplying and prices, etc is impossible.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,399 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    The problem with resetting expectations is twofold. The first is that we now see widening inequality with billionaires and corporations paying next to no tax. The second is that attempting to set lukewarm expectations on what the next government can achieve opens the door for populists who will promise the world. It is also the reason why separating issues of migration, equality, housing supplying and prices, etc is impossible.

    I personally believe Corbyn and #forthemanynotthefew resonated to a surprising degree last year for precisely these reasons. The center may very well be dead, because it isn't translating to everyone in society the way it did two decades ago.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,013 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    Sand wrote: »
    Yes, and that demonstrates how deep and damaging demographic divisions can go. We have two populations, both Christian, both white (so indistinguishable from each other) and even drawn from the same Gaelic heritage if you go back far enough. And still intensely bitter hatreds and political division that has endured for 400 years and could endure for another 400. Why would you want to repeat this experience across western Europe?

    Unlike the Ulster Scots and Israeli's, we're not talking about the 'Muslim menace' taking land out from under folk and setting up their own rules over those already there.
    We are talking about mild form xenaphobia, with a touch of casual racism.
    Sand wrote: »
    Are you really betting and European and non-European groups who have much greater differences are going to get on better? The history of the former Yugoslavia doesn't bode well, let alone current events where suicide bombings and truck rampages are now a thing in Europe that requires tens of thousands of soldiers patrolling city streets. Where-ever you find diversity, you find conflict and atrocities.

    I'm betting on any person from any walk having the same rights and being allowed the same dignity as you or I. It's a person's right to be different as long as it's legal, as decided by society. Things change for good and bad reasons. That's life. To try hold on to a time and place is more an Amish thing and not very practical.
    Sand wrote: »
    This is not nature. This is policy. Look at the US 1965 Immigration Act. That was a political choice, it was not a natural occurrence. The US was actually *more* white in 1965 than the USA was throughout the 19th century. After the 1965 act that has collapsed in just 50 years. That was a choice. Many western European governments are also making or have made choices, but you don't see it discussed openly in political manifestos. If you want to see this sort of demographic change, then seek a mandate for it openly. Don't piss on my back and tell me its raining.

    When working class people are sidelined and dismissed in their own country, I wouldn't be too concerned about some liberal 'agenda' to have 'equality'. Do you really think the world financial cartels will let anything happen that upsets profit making? We are driven by greed, so not to worry. There's no money in letting Muslims take over. Maybe plenty in letting people think they might. Keeps people voting hard right and fighting among themselves doesn't it?
    Sand wrote: »
    So is this demographic change supposed to be a positive or a punishment?

    Only Allah knows.
    Sand wrote: »
    Lets look at how it goes for whites in America. They are passing into minority status, and for the past 70 years their fellow citizens have been told that whites have undue power and wealth, that they cheated and stole it, and that they have misused it to oppress others. Lets see how that situation develops and see if they do indeed get a taste of their own medicine as you put it. Preferably from a distance.

    So what? You seem to have a very protectionist attitude. My heritage has some Scot and some viking in it, all white, so all good like, but if not for immigrants and other colours, we wouldn't have Leo Varadkar, and then where would we be?
    Protecting the white christian race from outsiders of different religions and colour, even if it means stepping on civil liberties and breaking humane laws of decency, reminds me of a hooded american social group.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 778 ✭✭✭BabyCheeses


    The problem with these things is that they never explain what happens once we stop letting anyone into the country. According to them it's already too late, are all the non-spanish speaking white people in the US going to start going at it like rabbits and put the minorities back in their place? Outlaw interracial marriage?

    What exactly is it that people want to talk about and why should I support them when they are unwilling to remove their own undesirable elements? I'm supposed to push away people I like because they happen to be from South America or the Middle East and instead embrace the likes of Tony Robinson as my fellow people?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,013 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    The problem with these things is that they never explain what happens once we stop letting anyone into the country. According to them it's already too late, are all the non-spanish speaking white people in the US going to start going at it like rabbits and put the minorities back in their place? Outlaw interracial marriage?

    What exactly is it that people want to talk about and why should I support them when they are unwilling to remove their own undesirable elements? I'm supposed to push away people I like because they happen to be from South America or the Middle East and instead embrace the likes of Tony Robinson as my fellow people?

    People fear change. Those on top worry they'll be treated the way they treat the people on the bottom.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    Here in the UK, it simply isn't affordable for the working class and often people in the middle class to have children.

    Would you not agree that part of this is due to population growth throughout the 20th century?

    Seems obvious to me that, for example, Dublin's housing crisis is directly related to more people wanting to live here and therefore the city requiring a higher density of housing - which almost certainly means a reduction, however slight, in the quality of life of each citizen (smaller units, less open green space, longer commutes, whatever really) - would it not be fair to say that something similar is happening in the UK?

    The fact that the world's population literally increased by several billion people in the 20th century just cannot possible have no knock on effects towards property prices. Land is an inherently finite resource, of course land value will increase if there's more demand for it from a larger number of people than before.

    I know I keep saying this, but it astounds me that this isn't discussed as a mainstream economic and political factor, and that we don't actively incentivise people to limit population growth. Indeed, we actually do the opposite in a lot of ways - parents with kids are prioritised for state resources and social welfare in a lot of cases (not all, but a lot) which surely must be incentivising people to have kids in and of itself?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    if not for immigrants and other colours, we wouldn't have Leo Varadkar, and then where would we be?

    Eh... This one might backfire as an argument, I think a lot of people would answer with "we'd have Coveney as Taoiseach and some of the ridiculousness which has happened under Leo's leadership might have been avoided" :D:D:D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,605 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    With respect, "Immigration good" as you so put it is a very vague statement. I think that it is a good thing but it needs to be managed. If white people in Western Europe and the US are having fewer children then I think that it is fair to wonder why.

    Here in the UK, it simply isn't affordable for the working class and often people in the middle class to have children. Social housing has been largely sold off, Rents are through the roof, the jobs for life some of our parents enjoyed are gone and insecure "McJobs" are a pretty strong disincentive to enduring the financial burden that even a single child would represent. I live in Zone 4 and a 2-bed flat in my area would cost well over ten times my net income. I could leave but then I'd struggle to find work that would pay enough for me to support a child. Many people are in this situation. Manufacturing and many low skilled jobs have either emigrated or become automated. Unless things change for people on lower incomes, you're going to see the size of certain demographics shrink.

    I think its very fair to wonder why a people fail to reproduce themselves. I think its a damning indictment of economic, cultural and political 'advances' since the second world war that progressive Europe simply lacks the drive to sustain itself. Can a society be considered successful if it ceases having children? Is that not people voting with their feet in the most total fashion?

    I think you could have an extensive discussion purely on that topic alone. I don't think there are clear answers. Sure, economic insecurity is a factor but how significant? Poverty is associated with high fertility throughout the world, so does it also explain low fertility? Africa is going through a population boom despite being much poorer than Europe and far more economically insecure.

    The conventional 3-bed semi detached is growing ever smaller and less suited for raising a family. That could be a factor, but even 2-3 generations ago, large families were raised in small houses and bunk beds are still a thing.

    I think there is cultural reasons as well: women have entered the workforce, men have not exited it so raising a family has to come second to careers, especially through peoples 20s and early 30s when each is seeking to get those critical promotions [Disclaimer - I am not saying the solution is patriarchy!]. And despite both working, people are actually relatively less wealthy than their parents or grandparents were at the same point in the lives. The aforementioned 3 bed is increasingly out of young peoples reach.

    Again, my view of all these factors is that they are not natural, it is not an act of god, or simply the way of the world over which we are powerless. It is a result of policies. Governments enact policies. We have, or should have, power over governments. We need governments to enact better policies.

    There also seems to be a persistent message that not having children is a good thing. Noble even. A sacrifice made for the good of the world. I don't think this is a significant factor in most peoples decision making, but it cant be without some effect that progressive people are telling other progressive people that its better for the environment to be childless.

    I mention this aspect because I dont think the solution is entirely about offering grants and handouts. Japan has tried this with little effect. There is no simple solution to a complex problem.
    Peregrinus wrote: »
    Just to add to what ACD says, if "people in Western Europe and the US are having fewer children", then that in itself is a factor which tends to suggest that immigration will be good. The continuing health of society and economy in Western Europe and the US requires future generations of workers, and if fertility does not supply this then migration will. To that extent, immigration isn't so much a threat to "western civilisation" as a necessary condition for its survival. That is, if we take "civilisation" to be dependent on a strong and healthy economy.

    ACD raises some good questions about why our birthrate is so low. If he is right in thinking that social and economic insecurity discourages people from having children, then we should expect migrants who move into the same insecure housing, employment etc conditions not to sustain high birth rates; their birth rates will fall in response to the same incentives that have led to the fall already observed in the indigenous population.

    So European countries are simply economic units, and if the factors of production that live in them fail to meet economic demands, then the economy simply import other factors of production from abroad?

    That's your vision of the society you live in? That is incredibly sad.

    And you're not seeing that your solution is not a solution at all. Europeans are failing to have sufficient children. Rather than addressing that admittedly difficult problem, you side step it by importing people from abroad. You then expect these people to converge on the European norm: i.e. cease having children. So then you have to import *more* people. And the cycle continues, without ever solving the actual problem. It is just papering over the cracks. The only result is the indigenous Europeans become a tiny minority in their homeland as more and more migrants move in to lend their fertility to a society that wont have children themselves.
    America has been undergoing massive demographic change since the 18th century. All of these "white" people you mention are themselves immigrants or the descendants of immigrants. I don't know what skin colour has to do with it.

    Oceania was at war with Eastasia: Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia.

    America was surprisingly stable in its demographics throughout the 20th century and indeed the 19th century. It was 80% white in 1790. It grew to 88% white in 1900, and stabilised at 88-89% white for the next 70 years. So for 180 years the USA was at least 80% white and for the majority of that time higher again. Over just the past 40-50 years, those demographics have rapidly changed. This was accomplished with no discussion, and no democratic mandate. The only comparable event I can think of over the same period is the demographic shifts between Arabs and Israelis in the territory of Israel. The British Mandate in 1920 was 80% Arab/Muslim. By 1948 this fell to 68% as Jewish people migrated into the territory. Today it is 50/50 in the former territory overall, and within the territory of Israel itself less than 20% are Arab/Muslim.
    Peregrinus wrote: »
    Yes, but nothing signficant has occurred. America is just as American, and Americans are just as American, as they were in 1960. White American children may be a minority (if we classify children of Latino heritage as "not white"), but so what? Skin colour is an incredibly trivial thing.

    Nothing significant? Have you not noticed that a drivelling moron is sitting in the White House? He was propelled there by the racial turmoil and angst which has been set in motion by these demographic changes. That turmoil is not going to get better - its going to get worse.

    Already, there is very clear voting blocs by race in America. Blacks gave an 80% preference to Dems in 2016. Latinos gave a 36% lead to Dems in 2016. Whites gave at 21% lead to Reps in 2016.

    And this cant even be excused by education (Trump won white voters with a college degree, 49% vs 45%), nor by misogyny (Trump won white women (against a woman candidate!) by 52% vs 43%.). What pushed Trump over the line though was his performance amongst whites without a college degree. He simply swept up in a way not before seen. They came out and voted in droves for a "Republican" candidate who swapped the dog-whistle for a megaphone turned up to 11.

    The Democrats are the party of the African and Latin Americans, and the Republicans are the party of white Americans in the same way as SF and the DUP divide up Catholic and Protestant votes with a similarly debilitating effect on society as a whole. NI has fallen into distrustful paralysis secured by ever more and ever higher "peace" walls between communities, and the US struggles to pass a budget where compromise with the other side is seen as treachery.

    In the era of racially charged identity politics which now define the US, those links of party and race are going to get stronger and stronger. So you might consider all this trivial, but it's happening even if you don't approve of it.

    My only question is why would you want to repeat this division and turmoil in Europe? What is to be gained?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,605 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    The problem with these things is that they never explain what happens once we stop letting anyone into the country. According to them it's already too late, are all the non-spanish speaking white people in the US going to start going at it like rabbits and put the minorities back in their place? Outlaw interracial marriage?

    What exactly is it that people want to talk about and why should I support them when they are unwilling to remove their own undesirable elements? I'm supposed to push away people I like because they happen to be from South America or the Middle East and instead embrace the likes of Tony Robinson as my fellow people?

    The USA is already a white minority country. Stopping immigration, reducing it to zero will have no effect on that broad outcome. It might be the difference between white Americans being 20% or 30% of the US population in 100 years time (pulling those numbers out of thin air) but it doesn't mean anything significant.

    I only introduced the US as an example because a poster disbelieved that 90/10 demographics could shift to a 49/51 split in just two generations. The US is an example of where that exact event occurred due to the 1965 Immigration Act.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,605 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    I personally believe Corbyn and #forthemanynotthefew resonated to a surprising degree last year for precisely these reasons. The center may very well be dead, because it isn't translating to everyone in society the way it did two decades ago.

    Yes, I believe 2016 marked the end of the "3rd Way" centrism & compassionate conservatism embraced by Clinton/Blair/Bush/Brown/Obama/Cameron/Clinton in the US and UK. The idea that the only thing that motivates people is economic self interest has been killed stone dead by Brexit and Trump.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 16,013 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    Sand wrote: »
    The USA is already a white minority country. Stopping immigration, reducing it to zero will have no effect on that broad outcome. It might be the difference between white Americans being 20% or 30% of the US population in 100 years time (pulling those numbers out of thin air) but it doesn't mean anything significant.

    I only introduced the US as an example because a poster disbelieved that 90/10 demographics could shift to a 49/51 split in just two generations. The US is an example of where that exact event occurred due to the 1965 Immigration Act.

    What is your fear and how should it be tackled?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 954 ✭✭✭caff


    I think its obvious from how successful the Irish were in their migration to the US where they outbread the indigenous hardworking WASPs and have since pushed the country into heavy debt soical chaos that we don't want to see the same happen here in Europe with Muslims.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    This new 4th Industrial Reveloution is a whole different ball game to the 'what about the Irish moving to the Americas' type thing.

    And the new elephant in the shop, is a robotic, automated, semi-sentiment, cloud-conscious, quantum, artifically inteligent one.
    - that means typical new migrants won't have any jobs to sail/walk into. Then what?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,605 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    Would you not agree that part of this is due to population growth throughout the 20th century?

    Seems obvious to me that, for example, Dublin's housing crisis is directly related to more people wanting to live here and therefore the city requiring a higher density of housing - which almost certainly means a reduction, however slight, in the quality of life of each citizen (smaller units, less open green space, longer commutes, whatever really) - would it not be fair to say that something similar is happening in the UK?

    The fact that the world's population literally increased by several billion people in the 20th century just cannot possible have no knock on effects towards property prices. Land is an inherently finite resource, of course land value will increase if there's more demand for it from a larger number of people than before.

    I know I keep saying this, but it astounds me that this isn't discussed as a mainstream economic and political factor, and that we don't actively incentivise people to limit population growth. Indeed, we actually do the opposite in a lot of ways - parents with kids are prioritised for state resources and social welfare in a lot of cases (not all, but a lot) which surely must be incentivising people to have kids in and of itself?

    The problem is, the social welfare that defines European societies is absolutely dependant on population growth. We need more and more grandchildren to pay for more and more grandparents. But government policies in multiple spheres (ever growing pension pots, thinking property prices have to be supported, etc) has led to massive transfers of wealth from the parents supposed to have these grand children to the grandparents. It is at least partially a factor in those parents not having sufficient grandchildren.

    We cant escape from this problem unless we make difficult choices about prioritising grandparents or grandchildren. In my view, the primary aim of a society/people is that it continues, so grandchildren are the priority.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 778 ✭✭✭BabyCheeses


    Sand wrote: »
    The USA is already a white minority country. Stopping immigration, reducing it to zero will have no effect on that broad outcome. It might be the difference between white Americans being 20% or 30% of the US population in 100 years time (pulling those numbers out of thin air) but it doesn't mean anything significant.

    I only introduced the US as an example because a poster disbelieved that 90/10 demographics could shift to a 49/51 split in just two generations. The US is an example of where that exact event occurred due to the 1965 Immigration Act.

    White people aren't a minority. They are 73.3% now and in 2060 they are expected to be at 68.5% in 2060 according to this. That's 3-4 generations and still not a minority.

    What should white American's be doing to ensure they don't become a minority? Closing the borders isn't enough so something else will have to be done.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,605 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    White people aren't a minority. They are 73.3% now and in 2060 they are expected to be at 68.5% in 2060 according to this. That's 3-4 generations and still not a minority.

    Your source says this:
    The country's racial profile will be vastly different, and although whites will remain the single largest racial group in the the US, they will no longer be a majority by 2055 according to Pew Research Center. Growth in the Hispanic and Asian populations is predicted to almost triple over the next 40 years. By 2055, the breakdown is estimated to be 48% White, 24% Hispanic, 14% Asian, and 13% Black.

    I know this is a struggle to accept, but the majority of children in the US *today* are not white. By 2060 those children will be 42 years old and likely have children of their own. Do the math. This idea of the US being a white majority country belongs to 1960, not 2060.
    What should white American's be doing to ensure they don't become a minority? Closing the borders isn't enough so something else will have to be done.

    As I've stated white Americans are a minority already. Nobody cares if white Americans are still a majority of the 40+ and older age groups. They don't have children so that only tells us about the past. The demographic breakdown of US children tells us about the future. And that has changed utterly in just two generations.

    It is too late to close the border or build a wall if the aim is to prevent white Americans becoming a minority. Short of inventing a time machine and going back to 1965 there is nothing to be done. So the US is going to see more racially divisive politics as is the norm in racially divided democracies. That is unavoidable at this point.

    My only question is why you would want to repeat this experience in Europe? What is to be gained?


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,538 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Sand wrote: »
    I think its very fair to wonder why a people fail to reproduce themselves. I think its a damning indictment of economic, cultural and political 'advances' since the second world war that progressive Europe simply lacks the drive to sustain itself. Can a society be considered successful if it ceases having children? Is that not people voting with their feet in the most total fashion?

    I think you could have an extensive discussion purely on that topic alone. I don't think there are clear answers. Sure, economic insecurity is a factor but how significant? Poverty is associated with high fertility throughout the world, so does it also explain low fertility? Africa is going through a population boom despite being much poorer than Europe and far more economically insecure.

    The conventional 3-bed semi detached is growing ever smaller and less suited for raising a family. That could be a factor, but even 2-3 generations ago, large families were raised in small houses and bunk beds are still a thing.

    It's fairly well documented I would think that poorer people are more likely to produce more children that wealthier people. We see it with Africa as well as working class (or, if you'd prefer, welfare class) enclaves in the West. I think that it is part and parcel of economic development that when people have more in their pockets and opportunities to choose a better lifestyle, they are less likely to have children. Where I am from, a job was something you had to have to pay the bills. You did it, you moaned about it and eventually you would build a house, get married and have a few children. Such a lifestyle is incompatible with modern trends like continuing professional development, climbing the ladder, working extra hours, trips abroad for business and pleasure, etc...
    Sand wrote: »
    I think there is cultural reasons as well: women have entered the workforce, men have not exited it so raising a family has to come second to careers, especially through peoples 20s and early 30s when each is seeking to get those critical promotions [Disclaimer - I am not saying the solution is patriarchy!]. And despite both working, people are actually relatively less wealthy than their parents or grandparents were at the same point in the lives. The aforementioned 3 bed is increasingly out of young peoples reach.

    Again, my view of all these factors is that they are not natural, it is not an act of god, or simply the way of the world over which we are powerless. It is a result of policies. Governments enact policies. We have, or should have, power over governments. We need governments to enact better policies.

    I absolutely agree. However, a better government begins with a better electorate. Unfortunately, populists on both sides look like they're here to stay for the short term at least. They might do damage or they might not. It is too early to tell. If people are simply going to vote to keep the other guy out, because it is how the parents voted or how they themselves have always voted then things seem unlikely to change sadly. Given the enormous challenges facing humanity like AI, antibiotic resistance, climate change, etc, a global response is required.
    Sand wrote: »
    There also seems to be a persistent message that not having children is a good thing. Noble even. A sacrifice made for the good of the world. I don't think this is a significant factor in most peoples decision making, but it cant be without some effect that progressive people are telling other progressive people that its better for the environment to be childless.

    I mention this aspect because I dont think the solution is entirely about offering grants and handouts. Japan has tried this with little effect. There is no simple solution to a complex problem.

    Let's be honest, we're pretty bad for the environment. Appalling even. And there are likely to be, what, 10 billion of us by the halfway point of this century. Having fewer children is no bad thing in and of itself. However, given the way that many Western societies are structured in terms of healthcare, infrastructure, care and the like, people are living longer and dying in much more expensive ways. A pool of young, healthy people is needed to provide the wealth needed to support the elderly. It was fine a few centuries ago, you retired earlier and died in your sleep or from an accident or of a heart attack. Relatively quick, painless and cheap. Nowadays, workplaces and roads are safer so now it's obesity, cancer and dementia which cost significantly more resources to even deal with, nevermind investigate and research properly. And then, old people vote which brings me back to my previous comment about needing a better electorate. Remember Theresa May's gambit last year? That would have been a difficult trick for a competent leader to pull off given a year or two.

    Fewer people wouldn't be a bad thing so long as it happens in a sustainable manner, an idea which seems like a fantasy today sadly.
    Sand wrote: »
    Nothing significant? Have you not noticed that a drivelling moron is sitting in the White House? He was propelled there by the racial turmoil and angst which has been set in motion by these demographic changes. That turmoil is not going to get better - its going to get worse.

    Already, there is very clear voting blocs by race in America. Blacks gave an 80% preference to Dems in 2016. Latinos gave a 36% lead to Dems in 2016. Whites gave at 21% lead to Reps in 2016.

    And this cant even be excused by education (Trump won white voters with a college degree, 49% vs 45%), nor by misogyny (Trump won white women (against a woman candidate!) by 52% vs 43%.). What pushed Trump over the line though was his performance amongst whites without a college degree. He simply swept up in a way not before seen. They came out and voted in droves for a "Republican" candidate who swapped the dog-whistle for a megaphone turned up to 11.

    The Democrats are the party of the African and Latin Americans, and the Republicans are the party of white Americans in the same way as SF and the DUP divide up Catholic and Protestant votes with a similarly debilitating effect on society as a whole. NI has fallen into distrustful paralysis secured by ever more and ever higher "peace" walls between communities, and the US struggles to pass a budget where compromise with the other side is seen as treachery.

    In the era of racially charged identity politics which now define the US, those links of party and race are going to get stronger and stronger. So you might consider all this trivial, but it's happening even if you don't approve of it.

    America seems to be a special case where its citizens seem to be unique in their cultural aversion if not outright antipathy to the state. That this situation has arisen is a damming indictment of US politics and the two parties which are solely interested in their own welfare. People in the US have consistently been voting against their own interests for a long time now. Only an utterly broken system could gift the world President Trump. Had Hilary Clinton won, 4 of the last 5 US Presidents would have been from 2 families. This is probably the most ethnically and culturally diverse nation in the world with a population of over 300 million people and they get to choose between A or B for their head of state.

    Laissez-faire is not the solution to every problem. When governments have no interest in investing in services to accommodate immigrants or preventing ghettoes, or limiting the numbers in such a manner to protect said services then you can't be surprised when problems like this emerge. The US is the most unequal nation in the world with social problems unheard of in Europe.
    Sand wrote: »
    My only question is why would you want to repeat this division and turmoil in Europe? What is to be gained?

    I'm not so sure that it would. The US is... exceptional. Europeans on the other hand seem to have little to no problem for the most part with their elected officials managing things and involving themselves in various problems.

    Look, we both know that there have been some problems. Ultimately, I think that the EU or the nations of Europe need to come up with some sort of agreement on how to manage migration. I think some migration is a good thing but it needs to be managed. Immigrants could be encouraged to settle in areas suffering from high levels of emigration for example. They can also do jobs that local people might not be too keen on doing.

    But it needs to be managed. Closed off, isolated and impoverished communities or ghettoes do noone any favours, not the government, not the state providers of services and not the residents of the affected areas either.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 778 ✭✭✭BabyCheeses


    Sand wrote: »
    Your source says this:



    I know this is a struggle to accept, but the majority of children in the US *today* are not white. By 2060 those children will be 42 years old and likely have children of their own. Do the math. This idea of the US being a white majority country belongs to 1960, not 2060.



    As I've stated white Americans are a minority already. Nobody cares if white Americans are still a majority of the 40+ and older age groups. They don't have children so that only tells us about the past. The demographic breakdown of US children tells us about the future. And that has changed utterly in just two generations.

    It is too late to close the border or build a wall if the aim is to prevent white Americans becoming a minority. Short of inventing a time machine and going back to 1965 there is nothing to be done. So the US is going to see more racially divisive politics as is the norm in racially divided democracies. That is unavoidable at this point.

    My only question is why you would want to repeat this experience in Europe? What is to be gained?

    It says:
    By 2060, the breakdown is projected to be the following: 68.5% White (43.6% Non-Hispanic), 14.3% Black, 1.3% American Indian, and 9.3% Asian.

    Speaking Spanish/Portuguese doesn't stop you from being white.

    Repeat what experience? Minorities have no interest in voting for the party the purposely tried to attract racists? Could always try a reverse Southern Strategy and see how it goes.

    Roy Moore wasn't elected thanks to black voters turning out in Alabama. Sounds pretty good to me.

    According to the OP it's already too late, they are here and out breeding us like in America. Are we just going to twiddle our thumbs and wait for someone to come out with ethnic cleansing so others can defend him from anyone who says he is racist? Do we just argue about this online as the caliphate gets built? What is it that the OP wants done?

    I still remember when it was the eastern Europeans coming to bring doom. Now they're a great bunch of lads.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,605 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    It says:

    Speaking Spanish/Portuguese doesn't stop you from being white.

    Look, you've got a source that contradicts itself and its not a good sign. Lets try match up all the numbers. It cites a Pew Research report which indicates in 2055, 48% white, 23% Hispanic.

    Later on it claims by 2060, the US will be 68.5% white, or 43.6% white if Hispanics are discounted. (Pew predicts 46% white by 2065).

    These projections cannot be simultaneously all be true. It hinges on the definition of white, and hispanic in either projection. And yes there is overlap but not to the extent required to align both projections from your one source. For Pew to agree with the later claim, to make 68.5% white (2060) from 48% White and 23% Hispanic (2055), 90% of the Hispanic population has to be White.

    That simply is not probable at all as currently only about 53% of Hispanic-Americans self identify as white. Neither is it likely that the non-Hispanic white population will drop from 48% white in 2055 to 43.6% white in 2060. That is not a decline, that is a cliff edge in 5 years.

    You've got a dubious source which is summarising conflicting predictions and you're just picking the one that suits you and ignoring the other. We can continue arguing about the number of angels dancing on pin, but its just a distraction from the reality that is happening. The US has less white children being born today, than non-white children. 1960 white America is gone. And it is not coming back. Get over it.
    Repeat what experience? Minorities have no interest in voting for the party the purposely tried to attract racists? Could always try a reverse Southern Strategy and see how it goes.

    Roy Moore wasn't elected thanks to black voters turning out in Alabama. Sounds pretty good to me.

    Yes, racial groups voting on racial lines for racial interests. You view this battle won in the struggle as a good news story. I view the racially divided politics as bad news.
    According to the OP it's already too late, they are here and out breeding us like in America. Are we just going to twiddle our thumbs and wait for someone to come out with ethnic cleansing so others can defend him from anyone who says he is racist? Do we just argue about this online as the caliphate gets built? What is it that the OP wants done?

    I like how you consider there is only two options: total inaction, or forth reich style ethnic cleansing. It advertises how seriously you are engaging with the issue.
    I still remember when it was the eastern Europeans coming to bring doom. Now they're a great bunch of lads.

    The Polish in Ireland are a different proposition in many ways. Firstly they represent 2.57% of the population. Secondly, they came for economic reasons and large numbers have left since 2008 so its not an ongoing trend. Direct flights between Warsaw and Dublin are surprisingly thin on the ground these days. Thirdly, in 1-2 generations people of Polish descent in Ireland will be completely indistinguishable from ethnic Irish people apart from perhaps an odd surname. They will be assimilated into Ireland in the same way as the Vikings, Normans and English*.

    This is not what is happening in countries like Sweden where by 2050 Muslim migrants alone will be 30% of the Swedish population. The Muslim migrants are on track to assimilate the Swedes, not the other way around.

    *Though arguably, in the last case: Irish people speak English today, not Gaelic. And consider borrowed English phrases such as "craic" as being the definition of Irishness. So you could say the English settlers assimilated the Gaelic Irish. Not the other way around.


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  • Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,820 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    Sand wrote: »
    My only question is why would you want to repeat this division and turmoil in Europe? What is to be gained?
    You ask a simplistic question as if it had a simplistic answer.

    Sure, division and turmoil can follow from migration. But that leads in turn to a swathe of other questions: why do they follow? Is turmoil an inevitable and inherent aspect of migration, or is it an indirect consequence because of people's reaction to migration? If the latter, why must the answer be to restrict migration, rather than to persuade people not to react so negatively to it? And even if we accept that some people are physically incapable of not reacting negatively to migration, does that mean that we should just meekly accept those people's reaction, and not bother fully analysing the pros and cons of migration?

    The answer to the second question - "what is to be gained?" - depends on your perspective. If your perspective is that of a migrant, the answer is an improved quality of life. If your perspective is that of an existing resident of Europe, well, it's pretty much the same answer - unless you define your quality of life by whether or not you're living in perfect cultural homogeneity.

    But the worst aspect of your question is the inherent false dichotomy it contains. The very phrasing of the question implies a simple choice: either we allow migration, which is bad, or we prevent migration, which is good. With all due respect, I reject your premise.

    If you're concerned about migration causing division and turmoil, maybe you should be asking why some people are determined to respond to migration with division and turmoil?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,314 ✭✭✭sink


    It's an interesting conversation with good arguments on both sides, I just think it's not seeing the forest for the trees. There is a greater force at play here that is causing this rapid shift in demographics and culture. It is a force of nature which is irrepressible and makes trying conserve present day culture or ethnicity by way of government policy, a hopelessly futile task; one which will most likely lead to more harm than good.

    The force i'm talking about is technological development. Every problem identified is a consequence of it. It has caused lower child mortality leading to more living adults which are living longer, leading to rapid population growth, sustained through increasing abundance. It has wrecked havoc on established industries and caused significant structural unemployment and underemployment, leading to resentment and fear for the future which gives rise to populist movements like Trump and Brexit. It has increased education attainment, leading to greater personal aspirations resulting in lower birth rates. It has caused the world to shrink through a global communication and transportation network that both increases trans cultural transfer of ideas and at the same time facilitates the accelerating migration of people around the globe. Migration which has always happened just at a much slower pace due to technological limitations rather than government policy.

    It's also going to get worse because the rate of technological development is accelerating exponentially, meaning all the change we have seen in the last century will be small in comparison to the next. Things like AI, genetic editing, space colonisation, life extension, possibly even immortality are going to alter society in ways we can barely conceive of.

    The rate of change in society for the past century has led to a situation today where a late 20 something person living in Dublin today has more culturally in common with a person from Shenzhen, China than they do with their own great grandparents at the same age. They both likely have completed second/third level education and work jobs in service or manufacturing sectors. Commuting to work everyday by car or public transport, shopping in a supermarket, internet dating, fiddling with the same smartphones, listening to similar pop music, watching the same/similar movies, playing the same video games. Contrast that to the differences between them and their own great grandparents less than a century ago.

    Social attitudes are also progressing globally along the same curve, with greater tolerances for religious, sexual, racial and gender equality pretty much universally with localised exceptions mainly due to conflicts (conflicts themselves are decreasing in quantity and severity). Even in countries like Saudi Arabia which are far behind, are still progressing albeit at a slower pace, but with great potential for rapid acceleration.

    The situation is that your own grandchildren in the far future will have far more in common with their peers from the opposite side of the world than they will with present day you.

    The rub is that the rate of change means that ethnicity and culture cannot be conserved or controlled so arguing about whether it's desirable is entirely academic. The best we can do is preserve records and artefacts so that future generations can understand us and where they came from.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 778 ✭✭✭BabyCheeses


    Sand wrote: »
    Look, you've got a source that contradicts itself and its not a good sign. Lets try match up all the numbers. It cites a Pew Research report which indicates in 2055, 48% white, 23% Hispanic.

    Later on it claims by 2060, the US will be 68.5% white, or 43.6% white if Hispanics are discounted. (Pew predicts 46% white by 2065).

    These projections cannot be simultaneously all be true. It hinges on the definition of white, and hispanic in either projection. And yes there is overlap but not to the extent required to align both projections from your one source. For Pew to agree with the later claim, to make 68.5% white (2060) from 48% White and 23% Hispanic (2055), 90% of the Hispanic population has to be White.

    That simply is not probable at all as currently only about 53% of Hispanic-Americans self identify as white. Neither is it likely that the non-Hispanic white population will drop from 48% white in 2055 to 43.6% white in 2060. That is not a decline, that is a cliff edge in 5 years.

    You've got a dubious source which is summarising conflicting predictions and you're just picking the one that suits you and ignoring the other. We can continue arguing about the number of angels dancing on pin, but its just a distraction from the reality that is happening. The US has less white children being born today, than non-white children. 1960 white America is gone. And it is not coming back. Get over it.

    Fine, we'll just use your sources which all still say the same, white people are and will continue to be the majority for the next few decades.

    YOUR link says 50.2% of children under the age of one year are racial or ethnic minority which is including Hispanics. This leaves 49.8% of babies born being non-Hispanic white. I don't see the exact number of Hispanic white babies being born but I would be surprised if it is less than 0.2% even if they are not white enough for your liking.

    The majority of Americans are white.
    The majority of children being born are white.
    The majority in 40 years is likely to still be white.

    Going by the trend, one day white people will no longer be the majority but still be the largest group. That day is not today.

    In the 2010 census 72.4% of the population where white. There has been an estimated increase in population of about 20 million, less than 10% of the population. A lot of white people would have to disappear and be replaced by non-white people for them to no longer be the majority.

    Sand wrote: »
    Yes, racial groups voting on racial lines for racial interests. You view this battle won in the struggle as a good news story. I view the racially divided politics as bad news.

    Please don't associate pedophilia as a white people thing. That was the whole scandal around Roy Moore, he was accused of going after teenage girls.

    Racially divided politics is nothing new in the US, it was even a strategy by the republican parties. White people trying to attract racist white voters, the minorities did nothing wrong except exist. I'm guess you are also against parties like UKIP, VVD, NF? Parties who aim to attract the natives against the minorities.
    Sand wrote: »
    I like how you consider there is only two options: total inaction, or forth reich style ethnic cleansing. It advertises how seriously you are engaging with the issue.

    It's hard to seriously engage with the issue when if we assume there is an issue all I am met with is blank stares in how to deal with it.

    I asked what the options were, you or nobody else answered.

    Sand wrote: »
    The Polish in Ireland are a different proposition in many ways. Firstly they represent 2.57% of the population. Secondly, they came for economic reasons and large numbers have left since 2008 so its not an ongoing trend. Direct flights between Warsaw and Dublin are surprisingly thin on the ground these days. Thirdly, in 1-2 generations people of Polish descent in Ireland will be completely indistinguishable from ethnic Irish people apart from perhaps an odd surname. They will be assimilated into Ireland in the same way as the Vikings, Normans and English*.

    This is not what is happening in countries like Sweden where by 2050 Muslim migrants alone will be 30% of the Swedish population. The Muslim migrants are on track to assimilate the Swedes, not the other way around.

    *Though arguably, in the last case: Irish people speak English today, not Gaelic. And consider borrowed English phrases such as "craic" as being the definition of Irishness. So you could say the English settlers assimilated the Gaelic Irish. Not the other way around.

    Muslims aren't here for economic reasons? I'm sure you are busy correcting anyone who uses the term "economic migrants".

    There are twice as many Poles as Muslims in Ireland so I guess we're fine here.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,818 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    oscarBravo wrote: »
    You ask a simplistic question as if it had a simplistic answer.

    Sure, division and turmoil can follow from migration. But that leads in turn to a swathe of other questions: why do they follow? Is turmoil an inevitable and inherent aspect of migration, or is it an indirect consequence because of people's reaction to migration? If the latter, why must the answer be to restrict migration, rather than to persuade people not to react so negatively to it? And even if we accept that some people are physically incapable of not reacting negatively to migration, does that mean that we should just meekly accept those people's reaction, and not bother fully analysing the pros and cons of migration?


    The answer to the second question - "what is to be gained?" - depends on your perspective. If your perspective is that of a migrant, the answer is an improved quality of life. If your perspective is that of an existing resident of Europe, well, it's pretty much the same answer - unless you define your quality of life by whether or not you're living in perfect cultural homogeneity.

    But the worst aspect of your question is the inherent false dichotomy it contains. The very phrasing of the question implies a simple choice: either we allow migration, which is bad, or we prevent migration, which is good. With all due respect, I reject your premise.

    If you're concerned about migration causing division and turmoil, maybe you should be asking why some people are determined to respond to migration with division and turmoil?

    That was very well expressed.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,605 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    Fewer people wouldn't be a bad thing so long as it happens in a sustainable manner, an idea which seems like a fantasy today sadly.

    I agree to the extent that Europe is a small minority of the worlds population (15%) and the vast majority of the growth is going to occur outside Europe. So a unilateral effort is not going to be effective. There is a certain amount of cognitive dissonance in the idea that less children are good, but we must have more immigrants to keep up consumption. It adds up to more pollution no matter if its old Europeans or new Europeans doing the polluting.

    Once it is accepted that Europe needs to re-evaluate how social welfare is implemented and funded, a declining European population is not actually a terrible thing. It frees up infrastructure which is creaking under the strain in many countries, brings good housing back into reach of more people as demand declines, and as automation reduces jobs it provides some relief if there is less people seeking them.
    I'm not so sure that it would. The US is... exceptional. Europeans on the other hand seem to have little to no problem for the most part with their elected officials managing things and involving themselves in various problems.

    But the same problems are emerging in Europe, as Europe begins the same journey the US began back in the 1960s. If anything, its already worse. Armed soldiers patrol the streets of European capitals. Ethnic ghettos have emerged and continue to grow as indigenous Europeans flee the benefits of diversity: London was an English city for at least 1000 years, and now English people are a minority in their own capital in just 70 years. Every medium sized UK town seems to have it's own Pakistani rape gang who are racially targeting their victims. More British Muslims signed up to fight for ISIS 2,500 miles from "home" than were serving in the British Army at the same time. European cities have to invest in putting up vehicle barriers [aka Allahu Akbarriers] around public spaces because new Europeans ramming through a crowd in a truck is a thing now. We're already seeing the emergence of racial voting blocs. Suicide bombings are now a persistent threat to children attending pop concerts.

    All the warning signs are flashing amber and red. There is no indication Europeans are any better equipped to handle the problems of mass immigration and multiculturalism.
    Look, we both know that there have been some problems. Ultimately, I think that the EU or the nations of Europe need to come up with some sort of agreement on how to manage migration. I think some migration is a good thing but it needs to be managed. Immigrants could be encouraged to settle in areas suffering from high levels of emigration for example. They can also do jobs that local people might not be too keen on doing.

    But it needs to be managed. Closed off, isolated and impoverished communities or ghettoes do noone any favours, not the government, not the state providers of services and not the residents of the affected areas either.

    Well, we are getting, and will continue to get closed off and isolated communities. Because the indigenous people flee diversity, and the new arrivals are not so keen on it either. The each congregate around others of their own ethnicity, and ghettos develop. This is natural human behaviour and has emerged in every scenario where diversity occurs.

    It's especially going to happen if we view immigrants as the people who are going to do the jobs we don't want to do. That implies a lower caste status right from the off.

    I think I should stress, I've no issue with immigration as such. I am careful to reference mass immigration as the problem. Mass immigration creates rapid demographic change. Rapid demographic change causes strife, division and in the worst occurrences outright war. What Europe has been going through in the last few decades is not normal: it is abnormally high levels of mass migration, causing demographic changes, leading to strife and division. The UK has been importing hundreds of thousands of people every single year for the last 20 years. It is unprecedented. That sort of pressure on a society leads to revolutions like Brexit.

    I cannot see why anyone would look at the evidence of the past 70 years and think more of the same is going to lead to a happy outcome for Europeans.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,605 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    oscarBravo wrote: »
    You ask a simplistic question as if it had a simplistic answer.

    Sure, division and turmoil can follow from migration. But that leads in turn to a swathe of other questions: why do they follow? Is turmoil an inevitable and inherent aspect of migration, or is it an indirect consequence because of people's reaction to migration? If the latter, why must the answer be to restrict migration, rather than to persuade people not to react so negatively to it? And even if we accept that some people are physically incapable of not reacting negatively to migration, does that mean that we should just meekly accept those people's reaction, and not bother fully analysing the pros and cons of migration?

    You're presenting a subjective view of the issue against my own objective view. It's a bad policy, so it shouldn't be enacted. Claiming its a bad policy only because people react negatively to a bad policy doesn't change that they do and it is. The first duty of any government is prudence. Europeans were handed down their countries by their forefathers, and they owe it to their children not to invite in unnecessary problems merely for the sake of an experiment or virtue signalling.

    I could equally say inequality is not a bad outcome, its just people react badly to inequality. Should we meekly accept their reaction, or not both fully analysing the pros and cons of inequality?
    The answer to the second question - "what is to be gained?" - depends on your perspective. If your perspective is that of a migrant, the answer is an improved quality of life. If your perspective is that of an existing resident of Europe, well, it's pretty much the same answer - unless you define your quality of life by whether or not you're living in perfect cultural homogeneity.

    Seeing as both indigenous Europeans and migrants do everything they can to separate from each other, cultural homogeneity is something they do seem to value over diversity.

    I don't think you can say the indigenous Europeans have benefited from mass immigration. The English communities which used to exist in London and no longer do didn't. The Europeans who have to pay higher taxes to fund the social welfare for migrant communities who have persisting unemployment don't benefit. And I don't think the English girls who were doused in petrol and threatened with being set alight if they didn't submit to gang rape benefited from diversity either.

    On the plus side, there are some cultural and artistic treasures such as 'Mans not hot'. So swings and roundabouts.
    But the worst aspect of your question is the inherent false dichotomy it contains. The very phrasing of the question implies a simple choice: either we allow migration, which is bad, or we prevent migration, which is good. With all due respect, I reject your premise.

    I didn't reference migration actually. I asked why you would want to recreate the racial strife and division in Europe.

    As I mentioned in my last post I try to reference mass immigration as the problem, not immigration. Zero immigration is completely unrealistic given necessity for trade, study, diplomacy, marriage etc. But the last 50-70 years are not normal. It is unprecedented mass immigration, and it is clearly bad and we should prevent it.
    If you're concerned about migration causing division and turmoil, maybe you should be asking why some people are determined to respond to migration with division and turmoil?

    As above, it doesn't matter *why* they are, any more than it matters why fire is hot. They are, it is. Mass immigration is a bad policy. Sticking your hand in fire is bad policy.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,487 ✭✭✭Mutant z


    The Muslim population of this country according to the census is about 63000 which i believe is an underestimate but in any case its growing and growing rapidly at the expense of the indigenous population we are in for a rocky road ahead.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,538 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Sand wrote: »
    I agree to the extent that Europe is a small minority of the worlds population (15%) and the vast majority of the growth is going to occur outside Europe. So a unilateral effort is not going to be effective. There is a certain amount of cognitive dissonance in the idea that less children are good, but we must have more immigrants to keep up consumption. It adds up to more pollution no matter if its old Europeans or new Europeans doing the polluting.

    Once it is accepted that Europe needs to re-evaluate how social welfare is implemented and funded, a declining European population is not actually a terrible thing. It frees up infrastructure which is creaking under the strain in many countries, brings good housing back into reach of more people as demand declines, and as automation reduces jobs it provides some relief if there is less people seeking them.

    Older voters aren't going to tolerate any erosion of their benefits and, as I said we need a certain amount of healthy taxpayers to fund their pensions and other benefits. An overall population decline done in a sustainable manner could be a good thing but I don't see it happening.
    Sand wrote: »
    But the same problems are emerging in Europe, as Europe begins the same journey the US began back in the 1960s. If anything, its already worse. Armed soldiers patrol the streets of European capitals. Ethnic ghettos have emerged and continue to grow as indigenous Europeans flee the benefits of diversity: London was an English city for at least 1000 years, and now English people are a minority in their own capital in just 70 years. Every medium sized UK town seems to have it's own Pakistani rape gang who are racially targeting their victims. More British Muslims signed up to fight for ISIS 2,500 miles from "home" than were serving in the British Army at the same time. European cities have to invest in putting up vehicle barriers [aka Allahu Akbarriers] around public spaces because new Europeans ramming through a crowd in a truck is a thing now. We're already seeing the emergence of racial voting blocs. Suicide bombings are now a persistent threat to children attending pop concerts.

    All the warning signs are flashing amber and red. There is no indication Europeans are any better equipped to handle the problems of mass immigration and multiculturalism.

    Where are the Europeans fleeing and to where do they seek refuge? I have been living in London for well over a year and a half now and haven't seen a single armed soldier. Not a one and I work in the centre of the city.

    Now, you say English people are a minority. Do you mean white English people or is it that non-white English people are not actually English?

    Regarding your claim of Muslims heading off to fight for IS, how many didn't? Considering that the UK has millions of Muslims, almost all of whom did not leave to fight for IS, I am not sure why you are citing this.
    Sand wrote: »
    Well, we are getting, and will continue to get closed off and isolated communities. Because the indigenous people flee diversity, and the new arrivals are not so keen on it either. The each congregate around others of their own ethnicity, and ghettos develop. This is natural human behaviour and has emerged in every scenario where diversity occurs.

    It's especially going to happen if we view immigrants as the people who are going to do the jobs we don't want to do. That implies a lower caste status right from the off.

    I think I should stress, I've no issue with immigration as such. I am careful to reference mass immigration as the problem. Mass immigration creates rapid demographic change. Rapid demographic change causes strife, division and in the worst occurrences outright war. What Europe has been going through in the last few decades is not normal: it is abnormally high levels of mass migration, causing demographic changes, leading to strife and division. The UK has been importing hundreds of thousands of people every single year for the last 20 years. It is unprecedented. That sort of pressure on a society leads to revolutions like Brexit.

    I cannot see why anyone would look at the evidence of the past 70 years and think more of the same is going to lead to a happy outcome for Europeans.

    Again, you're looking at it entirely through the prism of immigration. On Brexit, there are swathes of people across the UK who grew up in households where their Dad worked while Mum stayed at home. Now, those people work zero-hour contracts and living in houseshares. Stagnant wages along with protectionist housing policies have done more to stoke resentment in my opinion not forgetting biting austerity and the slashing of local services begun by the coalition government of 2010-2015. As you say, the UK has been importing people for a long time. Why has Brexit only just happened when UKIP has existed since 1993? My answer is that it is a perfect storm of austerity, stagnant wages, economic inequality, a skewed jobs market awash with McJobs and zero hour contracts, a lack of security, and problems both real and perceived with immigration.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,605 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    Fine, we'll just use your sources

    Okay, glad we could move past this.
    Please don't associate pedophilia as a white people thing. That was the whole scandal around Roy Moore, he was accused of going after teenage girls.

    Racially divided politics is nothing new in the US, it was even a strategy by the republican parties. White people trying to attract racist white voters, the minorities did nothing wrong except exist. I'm guess you are also against parties like UKIP, VVD, NF? Parties who aim to attract the natives against the minorities.

    Uh, I never mentioned paedophilia. You referenced the defeat of Roy Moore as being a triumph for black people. I.E. racial politics.
    It's hard to seriously engage with the issue when if we assume there is an issue all I am met with is blank stares in how to deal with it.

    I asked what the options were, you or nobody else answered.

    You're asking what the solution is for the USA. I'm telling you, there is no solution in 2018 bar building a time machine and stopping the 1965 immigration act. Racial division is the present and the future of the USA. You cannot do anything to solve that.

    What you're missing is I only referenced the US to show how demographics can rapidly shift in just two generations. The problem that can be solved is Europe. And the solution there is two fold: A) End mass immigration into Europe. B) Examine and address the causes of Europeans failing to have children.
    Muslims aren't here for economic reasons? I'm sure you are busy correcting anyone who uses the term "economic migrants".

    There are twice as many Poles as Muslims in Ireland so I guess we're fine here.

    Polish people can be assimilated. Lapsed Catholics who have issues with alcohol will fit in just fine in Ireland. Migration from within a region is much easier to handle than migration from outside a region.

    White South Africans have been present in the cape for centuries, but they haven't been assimilated by the local Africans, and they never will be.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,605 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    sink wrote: »
    It's an interesting conversation with good arguments on both sides, I just think it's not seeing the forest for the trees. There is a greater force at play here that is causing this rapid shift in demographics and culture. It is a force of nature which is irrepressible and makes trying conserve present day culture or ethnicity by way of government policy, a hopelessly futile task; one which will most likely lead to more harm than good.

    Well, lets look at China. A country which in the early 20th century was the plaything of various imperialistic powers, both European and Asian. It is now plugged into the global economy and indeed a huge engine of the global economy. It remains 92% Han, down from 93% in the 1950s. Economic, political and even cultural change does not require demographic change.
    The rate of change in society for the past century has led to a situation today where a late 20 something person living in Dublin today has more culturally in common with a person from Shenzhen, China than they do with their own great grandparents at the same age. They both likely have completed second/third level education and work jobs in service or manufacturing sectors. Commuting to work everyday by car or public transport, shopping in a supermarket, internet dating, fiddling with the same smartphones, listening to similar pop music, watching the same/similar movies, playing the same video games. Contrast that to the differences between them and their own great grandparents less than a century ago.

    I will disagree with you there. Your 20 something Dubliner would be able to converse with their great grandparent. If the same Dubliner was to bump into his cultural cousin in Shenzhen, for all their cultural similarity they would be reduced to pointing and drawing pictures to discuss their deep shared cultural heritage. And what shared culture would they be discussing anyway? Their shared love of the consumer products of Apple Corporation? On this rock they will build their church?

    When we talk about culture, I think I can show you what shared culture is. Look at this video, "Becoming Men".

    It's contemporary footage of young Dubliners today playing in the canals and rivers of Dublin. It is overlaid with an old man talking about the Dublin of his youth and how he and his friends played 50-60 years before. The beauty of the film is how the old man's account describes the activities of his grandchildren. That is a shared culture. It is not unchanged, but that man and his grandson could actually recognise each other as being connected in a way beyond simply customers of the same corporation.
    Social attitudes are also progressing globally along the same curve, with greater tolerances for religious, sexual, racial and gender equality pretty much universally with localised exceptions mainly due to conflicts (conflicts themselves are decreasing in quantity and severity). Even in countries like Saudi Arabia which are far behind, are still progressing albeit at a slower pace, but with great potential for rapid acceleration.

    I think the hope for linear progression to a global convergence of morality and values is a bit naive. I cant recall the exact quote (I think it might be connected to Napoleon being in Egypt), but there was a famous Enlightenment philosopher who like yourself excitedly described the great awakening of progressive values in the Islamic world and predicted they would quickly join the Enlightenment. 220 years later ISIS is still cutting peoples heads off for insulting the Prophet.
    The rub is that the rate of change means that ethnicity and culture cannot be conserved or controlled so arguing about whether it's desirable is entirely academic. The best we can do is preserve records and artefacts so that future generations can understand us and where they came from.

    As above, it can of course be controlled. China has controlled it whilst benefiting immensely from globalisation. Ethnicity has survived where monarchies, ideals and even states have fallen. Look at Poland. The state of Poland disappeared in the late 18th century, but the Polish people didn't and the state re-emerged. More recently, look at the Germans. Divided between idealogical camps, a front line in the cold war but East Germans felt a shared kinship with West Germans, over and beyond that shared with the ideological comrades in the USSR. Ethnicity has outlasted philosophies.

    Why skate uphill?


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