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Brexit discussion thread III

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  • #7472
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,691 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    I think it is the opposite. The entire country is sane - so sensible that they cannot accept that they did something mad.

    They think Brexit must be sensible because sensible people like them would not do anything completely insane.

    And yet, here we are.

    I think most countries around Europe who found themselves in the Brexit situation would be able to extricate themselves from it relatively easily i.e. a second referendum, the government saying it would not be in the national interest to implement it or some other formula from the govt / parliament to solve the problem.

    The Brits have gotten themselves into a terrible bind though, especially with this 'will of the people' narrative and the idea that the result must be implemented no matter what the consequences and that it would be profoundly 'undemocratic' and a 'betrayal' to do anything other than implement the result.

    Looking in from the outside, it seems bonkers that a country would get itself into such an almighty mess over what is little more than a glorified opinion poll. That nut Cameron was playing with fire by ever going near the idea of a referendum, as it's clear the British don't know how to do referendums or handle the fall out from them.


  • #7473
    flatty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,224 ✭✭✭flatty


    Strazdas wrote: »
    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    I think it is the opposite. The entire country is sane - so sensible that they cannot accept that they did something mad.

    They think Brexit must be sensible because sensible people like them would not do anything completely insane.

    And yet, here we are.

    I think most countries around Europe who found themselves in the Brexit situation would be able to extricate themselves from it relatively easily i.e. a second referendum, the government saying it would not be in the national interest to implement it or some other formula from the govt / parliament to solve the problem.

    The Brits have gotten themselves into a terrible bind though, especially with this 'will of the people' narrative and the idea that the result must be implemented no matter what the consequences and that it would be profoundly 'undemocratic' and a 'betrayal' to do anything other than implement the result.

    Looking in from the outside, it seems bonkers that a country would get itself into such an almighty mess over what is little more than a glorified opinion poll. That nut Cameron was playing with fire by ever going near the idea of a referendum, as it's clear the British don't know how to do referendums or handle the fall out from them.
    Most countries in Europe are run by politicians who, in the main, want to do their best for the country. The UK is currently run by people who are interested only in inflicting their personal dogma. Sin e e unfortunately. They will not be remembered well.


  • #7474
    Jim2007
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,907 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    briany wrote: »
     
    What exactly are the political pundits suggesting the UK is going to say to the EU/Ireland/Northern Ireland, come the deadline date?
    It is not actually very difficult to understand:  They are hoping that what is on offer in other areas will be enough to split the 27 and they'll get something close to what they want in the end.  All the while the negotiations are going on in Brussels, UK ministers and diplomats are visiting the capitals of Europe hoping to create that split. 
    But as an Italian work mate of mine says:  The real problem with the British is that they don't understand that when a European says 'No', they really mean 'No' and not 'Maybe I'm open to persuasion' ...


  • #7475
    Unpossible
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,191 ✭✭✭Unpossible


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    It is not actually very difficult to understand:  They are hoping that what is on offer in other areas will be enough to split the 27 and they'll get something close to what they want in the end.  All the while the negotiations are going on in Brussels, UK ministers and diplomats are visiting the capitals of Europe hoping to create that split. 
    But as an Italian work mate of mine says:  The real problem with the British is that they don't understand that when a European says 'No', they really mean 'No' and not 'Maybe I'm open to persuasion' ...
    Isn't that dangerous for the UK? If the EU is split then there will be no agreement and the UK will crash out.
    Or are they hoping that this is a giant game of chicken and the EU will blink and give in when the deadlines are close?


  • #7476
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Unpossible wrote: »
    Or are they hoping that this is a giant game of chicken and the EU will blink

    No, the UK government intend to give in, but if they gave in now the brexiteer Tories would cause all sorts of trouble. So they will "negotiate" until the last minute and then give in when it is too late for the brexiteers to replace May or renegotiate anything.


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  • #7477
    steddyeddy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,565 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    Sorry if this has been posted but I'm astounded at this threat by Mogg:
    Leading Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg is calling on Theresa May to "call the EU's bluff" and cripple Ireland in retaliation to delays in a border deal being struck.
    "If Britain trades on WTO terms, we could potentially slap tariffs of up to 70 per cent on Irish beef.

    English nationalism at its finest. No different from something you'd hear in a pub draped with St.George's cross. Dangerous thinking.


  • #7478
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    steddyeddy wrote: »
    Sorry if this has been posted but I'm astounded at this threat by Mogg:



    English nationalism at its finest. No different from something you'd hear in a pub draped with St.George's cross. Dangerous thinking.

    It's par for the course for Jacob. It's not the first time he's threatened Ireland if Britain doesn't get its way with the EU. It's his elitist Little Englander arrogance shining through - briseann an dúchas trí shúile an chait. Or, perhaps even more apt, what would you expect from a pig but a grunt?


  • #7479
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 42,346 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    It's not just senseless, it betrays a complete lack of understanding of how the EU actually works. Does he think that such a tariff would not be met with reprisals from Brussels? Does he not think that corporations in Brussels are not using lobbying the EU to try and put UK firms at a disadvantage?

    Anyway, the tabloids are now up in arms about a €7 EU visa fee. Seems that this is being misrepresented according to this link:
    Etias, which is modelled on the US visa-waiver system, is designed to increase border security in times of mass migration and a heightened terrorist threat.

    Visitors to the EU, including from the US, will have to file an online application, which will be cross-checked against EU states' crime databases and those of Interpol, the international police agency.

    Most will get a travel permit "automatically and quickly" and the €7 fee will keep them covered for three years.

    The sad thing is that there are a lot of people who'll only start to reconsider Brexit once their pocket takes a hit.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #7480
    flatty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,224 ✭✭✭flatty


    I've long thought this. There are plenty of idiots who voted for brexit who will be surprised and upset when they are paying three pounds a minute to phone home, and two grand to download an episode of lost again.
    Too late it will be.
    Other than the relatively few talentless politicians parked there on big wages, I cannot think of much that the eu has done that is bad.


  • #7481
    flatty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,224 ✭✭✭flatty


    Best case scenario really would be that the UK cave on the customs union and single market, sit in semi isolation until this wave of arrogant bigots have moved on, and the younger generations move to rejoining with full integration.
    Twenty or thirty years I'd say.


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  • #7482
    Enzokk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,005 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    It's par for the course for Jacob. It's not the first time he's threatened Ireland if Britain doesn't get its way with the EU. It's his elitist Little Englander arrogance shining through - briseann an dúchas trí shúile an chait. Or, perhaps even more apt, what would you expect from a pig but a grunt?
    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    It's not just senseless, it betrays a complete lack of understanding of how the EU actually works. Does he think that such a tariff would not be met with reprisals from Brussels? Does he not think that corporations in Brussels are not using lobbying the EU to try and put UK firms at a disadvantage?


    But they were promising cheaper food prices due to Brexit, because they could get cheap beef in from Brazil/other countries. But if you charge the beef from Ireland a 70% tariff, then you have to do the same to all other countries, right? That is the essence of most favoured nation clause. Unless he thinks they will be able to get a trade deal with Brazil/Argentina/AN Other country done to get the cheap beef in to the UK.

    If he thinks he can bully the EU and not get the same back in return he truly is stuck in the past. If the UK puts a 70% tariff on EU beef then it would surely mean the EU would be leaning on any potential trade partners the UK may be negotiating with. I mean all's fair if the UK starts with punitive tariffs to harm the EU in my opinion.


  • #7483
    Call me Al
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,039 ✭✭✭Call me Al


    I think JRM most likely knows exactly what he says isn't realistic. But that doesn't matter to him. He's said it. A certain minority of the Brexit audience are hearing it and loving him for saying it.
    Do you remember that C4 Brexit loving red hat lady from last November? The lady who believed that the Irish had lost?
    Her quote:
    “the Irish are just making trouble because they lost. It’s a bit petty isn’t it, really? Yeah, the ‘Southern Irish’ just have to lump it basically. You can’t always have what you want in life.”

    This is who this disgusting rhetoric is for. The ones who aren't the sharpest tools in the box but whose breathtaking arrogance make up for it.


  • #7484
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Call me Al wrote: »
    I think JRM most likely knows exactly what he says isn't realistic.

    That's precisely how the UK landed in this mess: people making up crap to pass blame onto the EU. The people doing it knew it was made up (since they made it up), the press knew it was made up, but printed it because it suited their agenda, and 30 years later a whole generation of UK voters thinks the EU is about straight bananas and stealing Britannia's sweet chariot.


  • #7485
    Lemming
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,162 ✭✭✭✭Lemming


    JRM can scream all the obscenity that he likes because he is a back-bencher and will rarely, if ever, be called to account for what he has said. And and he knows it. This is also why the media laps him up; he's Farage mk.II and panders to all sorts of nationalism & bigotry.

    That doesn't mean he isn 't dangerous because as I have said earlier, I suspect he's quite content where he is sat because he wont be called to account for his words in Parliament, and if some of his more 'colourful' notions see the light of day, he knows that someone else will take the heat for something he wanted done. Best of both worlds as far has he's concerned.


  • #7486
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 42,346 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Lemming wrote: »
    JRM can scream all the obscenity that he likes because he is a back-bencher and will rarely, if ever, be called to account for what he has said. And and he knows it. This is also why the media laps him up; he's Farage mk.II and panders to all sorts of nationalism & bigotry.

    That doesn't mean he isn 't dangerous because as I have said earlier, I suspect he's quite content where he is sat because he wont be called to account for his words in Parliament, and if some of his more 'colourful' notions see the light of day, he knows that someone else will take the heat for something he wanted done. Best of both worlds as far has he's concerned.

    It's not just that he's unaccountable. His extremist views which are anathema to British values are dragging the overton window in an ever more rightward and increasingly authoritarian direction. By not being accountable, he can say what he wants and his following both on Twitter, in the Conservative party and in the ERG will take it seriously. When you consider the disastrous, fractious state British politics is in, I can see him becoming PM unless he is smart enough to discard such a poisoned chalice and remain ideologically pure.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #7487
    EdgeCase
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,466 ✭✭✭EdgeCase


    Enzokk wrote: »
    But they were promising cheaper food prices due to Brexit, because they could get cheap beef in from Brazil/other countries. But if you charge the beef from Ireland a 70% tariff, then you have to do the same to all other countries, right? That is the essence of most favoured nation clause. Unless he thinks they will be able to get a trade deal with Brazil/Argentina/AN Other country done to get the cheap beef in to the UK.

    If he thinks he can bully the EU and not get the same back in return he truly is stuck in the past. If the UK puts a 70% tariff on EU beef then it would surely mean the EU would be leaning on any potential trade partners the UK may be negotiating with. I mean all's fair if the UK starts with punitive tariffs to harm the EU in my opinion.

    You can't simply tarrif Irish beef. You'd be tarrifing ALL EU beef.
    The EU would simply respond by tarrifing some significant UK export with similar rates.


  • #7488
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    EdgeCase wrote: »
    The EU would simply respond by tarrifing some significant UK export with similar rates.

    "Now you see the violence inherent in the system!
    Help! Help! I'm being repressed!"


  • #7489
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,396 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    steddyeddy wrote: »
    Sorry if this has been posted but I'm astounded at this threat by Mogg:



    English nationalism at its finest. No different from something you'd hear in a pub draped with St.George's cross. Dangerous thinking.
    To put that in context :

    UK-beef-trade-exports.png
    During the whole of 2017, just over half of UK exports went to either Ireland or the Netherlands.


  • #7490
    EdgeCase
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,466 ✭✭✭EdgeCase


    At this stage they're going to have to cause a recession before they understand how stupid what they are doing is. It's not even about the EU, it's about creating total unpredictability and refusing point blank to look at any kind of sensible solutions to the situation.


  • #7491
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    EdgeCase wrote: »
    At this stage they're going to have to cause a recession before they understand how stupid what they are doing is.

    With growth down to 0.1%, they are practically there already, and the news has not mentioned it. I'm sure the BBC are expecting a prolonged recession and will put a brave face on it.


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  • #7492
    EdgeCase
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,466 ✭✭✭EdgeCase


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    With growth down to 0.1%, they are practically there already, and the news has not mentioned it. I'm sure the BBC are expecting a prolonged recession and will put a brave face on it.

    Oh don't worry they'll have "Keep Calm and Carry On" posters up and will blame the EU for absolutely everything, particularly not just giving them access to everything without adhering to any rules of market access.


  • #7493
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    It's not just that he's unaccountable. His extremist views which are anathema to British values are dragging the overton window in an ever more rightward and increasingly authoritarian direction. By not being accountable, he can say what he wants and his following both on Twitter, in the Conservative party and in the ERG will take it seriously. When you consider the disastrous, fractious state British politics is in, I can see him becoming PM unless he is smart enough to discard such a poisoned chalice and remain ideologically pure.

    An interview he did with Radio Four, aged 12 - talks about owning shares in GEC, and aiming to run the company by the time he's 30!

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCr4today/status/989804159896604677


  • #7494
    Jim2007
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,907 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    If the UK exits without an agreement, then under WTO terms they will be forced to impose tariffs on all imported foods, adding about 22% to the cost for UK consumers.  Failure to comply with WTO terms will mean that current WTO members will be unable to enter into trade negotiations with them.  
    At some point in the next 12 to 18 months, some politician is going to have to bring home the bad news... It will be very interesting to see who is going to do it and who they'll blame - the EU, the WTO or remainers...


  • #7495
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    The UK Independent claims May could offer effective freedom of movement, with an "emergency brake" included as a face-saving measure:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-talks-latest-eu-immigration-free-movement-offer-a8326101.html#commentsDiv


  • #7496
    trellheim
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,184 ✭✭✭trellheim


    "The UK Independent claims May could offer effective freedom of movement, with an "emergency brake" included as a face-saving measure:

    sounds just like what Cameron was offered


  • #7497
    Hurrache
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,383 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Get yer'selves a cuppa and enjoy Tony Connelly's excellent analysis of the current situation with Brexit and the border in the waring UK government, which if you were to sum up in 3 words, time wasting spoofers.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2018/0427/958793-brexit-breaking-point/

    And for all their huffing and puffing about there being simple technological solutions available to resolve it...
    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/989781149386989568?s=19
    Just last month, Mr Davis stated that “a whole load of new technology” exists to prevent the need for physical checks and controls at the border.


    But in response to a freedom of information request submitted by i, officials at the Department for Exiting the European Union admitted the number of companies it had spoken to about such technology was “nil”.


  • #7498
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    More parliamentary endeavours to prevent a "no deal Brexit", with some Tories warming to joining EFTA:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/28/support-for-cross-party-plans-take-no-deal-brexit-off-table


  • #7499
    Jim2007
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,907 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    More parliamentary endeavours to prevent a "no deal Brexit", with some Tories warming to joining EFTA:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/28/support-for-cross-party-plans-take-no-deal-brexit-off-table

    Applying for membership is one thing, being accepted is another... neither Norway nor Switzerland want a dominant trouble maker joining the group. I expect to see a referendum in Switzerland over it. Hell, I’ll start the process myself in no one else does :-)


  • #7500
    Jim2007
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,907 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    The UK Independent claims May could offer effective freedom of movement, with an "emergency brake" included as a face-saving measure:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-talks-latest-eu-immigration-free-movement-offer-a8326101.html#commentsDiv

    Yes that is the agreement we have here in Switzerland with the EU, but so far every time someone tries to apply the brake it has been found to be defective :-)


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  • #7501
    Econ_
    Closed Accounts Posts: 112 ✭✭Econ_


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    More parliamentary endeavours to prevent a "no deal Brexit", with some Tories warming to joining EFTA:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/28/support-for-cross-party-plans-take-no-deal-brexit-off-table

    If that amendment gets through parliament it will effectively end the question of the Irish border.

    The only way to avoid a no deal scenario is to agree a withdrawal treaty with the EU - and the only way to agree a withdrawal treaty is to sign up to a legally operative solution to guarantee no hard border.


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