Brexit discussion thread III

Peregrinus · 19-04-2018 10:03AM

EdgeCase wrote: »

The concern I would have is that GDP and similar indicators are just crude measures of economic activity. You have to drill down into what that GDP is being generated by.

If it's just city trades, IP movements, etc it's as meaningless as Apple's accounting tweaks impacting GDP here. There's a lot of that goes on in the UK too due to the size of the financial sector and company HQs there. It's not entirely unlike Ireland in that regard, it's just bigger.

The danger is that Brexit will impact real, nuts and bolts businesses and many of them are core job creators and income producers.

I would caution against relying on the notion that you can easily sail through a 10% loss of GDP. It all depends which aspects of the economy are impacted.

You certainly can't. Remember the Global Financial Crisis of 2008? UK GDP fell by 4.9% over two years, and they are still living with austerity as a result of that, ten years later. If Brexit causes a 10% fall, that's more than twice as big. Granted, it will unfold over a longer timescale, which makes it easier to manage and perhaps easier to bear, but it will still be incredibly painful.

I would add, though, that the latest study from Global Futures, which ancapailldorcha has pointed about, doesn't look at the effect on Brexit on the GDP, or on the national economy, but specifically on the finances of the government, and the government borrowing requirements. When the model that Brexit would cost X billion pounds, they are not saying that it would cost the nation X billion pounds, just that it would cost the government X billion pounds. It would cost the nation much, much more than that.

Leroy42 · 19-04-2018 10:05AM

There was a blogpost linked earlier in the thread posted by (at least professing to be by) an owner manager of a sportswear company. The effect from Brexit will be basically to close down their business.

Taken at face value, that is very worrying for the UK economy as a whole. Whatever happens with Brexit there will inevitably be a period of transition. Old alliances and supply chains will need to be replaced with new relationships. With that comes issues of supply, quality, finding the right partner etc. It is not simply a case of picking a new supplier.

What will happen to those "just coping" during this phase? Will they be able to absorb the loss in business, the additional costs of setting up new deals. Additional employees will be needed to process customs etc.

None of this seems to have been considered in any depth. Will the government provide cashflow loans at low/zero rates for eg? Will they provide finance guarantees (letters of credit I think they are called) to enable the first orders from new suppliers? Will they arrange for extra customs facilities to provide fast track to reduce delays?

The emphasis is nearly always on big business, but they are best placed to handle things like this. It is the local export led business that will suffer, and be the most ill-equipped to deal with the issues that need to be considered. And the vast majority of people are employed by these firms.

EdgeCase · 19-04-2018 10:12AM

Government borrowing can also be offset by severe austerity, something that warms the the hearts of many conservatives.

Enzokk · 19-04-2018 10:27AM

Okay, we can relax. It seems that Theresa May is not racist. She was not in favour of the "Go Home" vans, it was actually approved behind her back when she went on holiday.

https://twitter.com/NickJTimothy/status/986872938283618305

But then this raises more questions than it answers. Did she have no control over her own department that a decision she made was approved and put into action as soon as she left the office? So she is not racist, she is just incompetent.

But then what about the time she blamed a cat for not being able to deport someone? Was her speech changed when she turned her back then as well and she just had to say what was written for her?

Theresa May under fire over deportation cat claim

Home Secretary Theresa May has been criticised for claiming that an illegal immigrant avoided deportation because of his pet cat.

..."We all know the stories about the Human Rights Act... about the illegal immigrant who cannot be deported because, and I am not making this up, he had a pet cat."

But a spokesman for the Judicial Office at the Royal Courts of Justice, which issues statements on behalf of senior judges, said the pet had "had nothing to do with" the judgement allowing the man to stay.

Mrs May told the BBC her speech had been checked before it went out and that the case was "just one example" of where she believed the law was being misconstrued.

So we have either a racist, or someone so incompetent policies are being approved behind her back (or both) running the UK. Backing her up is the DUP, whose leader steadfastly refuses to take responsibility for her own action and decisions.

Arlene Foster was told about need for cost controls two years before RHI imploded – but she doesn’t feel responsible

Although she received information on the need for RHI cost controls more than two years before the scheme ran out of control, Arlene Foster has said that she does not feel any personal responsibility for the failure to put those controls in place.

In evidence to the public inquiry into the ‘cash for ash’ scandal, Mrs Foster accepted that the issue had been put to her in a written ministerial submission in June 2013 but said that the way in which the issue had been brought to her attention by her officials was incomplete and lacked any sense of urgency.

But I am sure Brexit will work out for everyone with the caliber of leaders we see right now.

Zubeneschamali · 19-04-2018 10:45AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

None of this seems to have been considered in any depth.

This may be the thinking of people in business in the UK who are steadfastly not panicking and not really making any preparations.

"This has not been considered in detail, it is just waffle so far. When the detail becomes clear, it will be so apocalyptic that it cannot be done. Therefore it will never happen."

ancapailldorcha · 19-04-2018 10:48AM

Enzokk wrote: »

But then this raises more questions than it answers. Did she have no control over her own department that a decision she made was approved and put into action as soon as she left the office? So she is not racist, she is just incompetent.

I've read in Tim Shipman's book, Fall Out that May afforded vast amounts of power and control to her "chiefs", Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill. This was probably what cost her the election. It stands to reason that they were allowed to run amok in the Home Office before she became PM. The Conservative party manifesto was written by Timothy and Ben Gumner with senior ministers like Jeremy Hunt having no input nor idea what was in store for their departments.

I don't know if she is racist. She might just think that the country is overpopulated. She even shoehorned her "tens of thousands" soundbyte in a speech gave before the referendum supporting Remain which resulted in her being sidelined. It's been Conservative party policy for some time so it's hardly anachronistic though why they just didn't cut EU migration back in 2010 and then actually try to work with the EU on some sort of compromise before this referendum is beyond me.

MBSnr · 19-04-2018 11:03AM

http://delano.lu/d/detail/news/brexit-talks-extremely-difficult-says-finmin/176484

Doesn't say much new, other than the fact that the UK is surely slowly going down the road of a customs union. What with the HoL knocking it back to the HoC, it's looking more like the Gov. will be forced down that road, faux protesting all the time to keep up appearances.

Thomas__. · 19-04-2018 11:20AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Enzokk wrote: »

But then this raises more questions than it answers. Did she have no control over her own department that a decision she made was approved and put into action as soon as she left the office? So she is not racist, she is just incompetent.

I've read in Tim Shipman's book, Fall Out that May afforded vast amounts of power and control to her "chiefs", Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill. This was probably what cost her the election. It stands to reason that they were allowed to run amok in the Home Office before she became PM. The Conservative party manifesto was written by Timothy and Ben Gumner with senior ministers like Jeremy Hunt having no input nor idea what was in store for their departments.

I don't know if she is racist. She might just think that the country is overpopulated. She even shoehorned her "tens of thousands" soundbyte in a speech gave before the referendum supporting Remain which resulted in her being sidelined. It's been Conservative party policy for some time so it's hardly anachronistic though why they just didn't cut EU migration back in 2010 and then actually try to work with the EU on some sort of compromise before this referendum is beyond me.

In my view, T. May is a racist and the worst and cruelest person that ever held offices as HS and PM. Wait until the hostile environment she created herself already when HS and continued to do so since she became PM will hit back on her. This doesn't stop with the recent Windrush scandal, it includes EU nationals living in the UK as well and by what is revealed since last week will certainly rather frighten EU nationals and make them leave the UK and I am not just referring to those on the cheap jobs I mean the high qualified staff as well. This is what she wants, to see them leave but as stupid as that woman is, she doesn't gives a damn about the consequences and those will be emense in regards of the NHS which was on the brink of collaps in December last year.

The reputation of the UK is already on a decline since the BrexitRef and it goes certainly further down in the light of the way how they treat foreign nationals and even those like the Windrush people who came to the UK decades ago as British Subjects and Citizens.

The Tory Party has gone extreme in order to compete with the UKIP and became more racist (or anti-migration) ever since.

As for a compromise on migration with the EU, there were such negotiations when Cameron was PM and that before BrexitRef, but to no avail because free movement of EU citizens within the EU is one of the non-negotiable pillars of the EU. Other EU member states like Germany have introduced new legislation in order to curb abuse on their social benefits system by EU citizens from Eastern and South-Eastern EU countries who moved only for the sake of drawing social benefits. This seems to work by now but instead of adopting such legislation, the UK govt chosed to take the hard road and call for non-migration and that was the whole point the whole Brexit campaign was all about.

The hostile enivronment was set up by May as HS and it exacerbated during the BrexitRef campaign with UKIP and the Tories as well using the migration topic to get votes for leave. What happened in the wake of the BrexitRef result was going on for weeks and months and it was all over in the papers, even the Irish one. What did May against that when she took over from Cameron? Nothing but hot air and in fact, she didn't care for which I really assume that what was going was truely more up her street than to take action against it. This woman is inhumane and not just in regards of foreign nationals, but also towards her own people as they can die in hallways in hospitals which were overcrowded because the UK govt has done short cuts for that section over years. Now imagine as similar situation like that in last Winter and then having the EU nationals and others non-UK citizens who work there as nurses and medics left the country because of the hostile migration policy of this present government. The NHS will collaps not within a couple of days but probably within hours in one or two days.

I am sorry to say that even when considering the comments of her opponents in the British media, there is still a certain percentage of British people who either are in full support of her or give their tacit approval by doing nothing and saying nothing against it. In some ways, they just let the ugly face of the sneaky and tricksy Brit rear his head.

J Mysterio · 19-04-2018 11:25AM

EdgeCase wrote: »

The concern I would have is that GDP and similar indicators are just crude measures of economic activity. You have to drill down into what that GDP is being generated by.

If it's just city trades, IP movements, etc it's as meaningless as Apple's accounting tweaks impacting GDP here. There's a lot of that goes on in the UK too due to the size of the financial sector and company HQs there. It's not entirely unlike Ireland in that regard, it's just bigger.

The danger is that Brexit will impact real, nuts and bolts businesses and many of them are core job creators and income producers.

I would caution against relying on the notion that you can easily sail through a 10% loss of GDP. It all depends which aspects of the economy are impacted.

Absolutely. The comparisons to 'Mad Max wasteland' are more true than false, and its not even funny. UK are in big trouble and refuse to see it. They are too proud.

MBSnr · 19-04-2018 11:52AM

Thomas__. wrote: »

I am sorry to say that even when considering the comments of her opponents in the British media, there is still a certain percentage of British people who either are in full support of her or give their tacit approval by doing nothing and saying nothing against it. In some ways, they just let the ugly face of the sneaky and tricksy Brit rear his head.

Yeap kind of it alright - saying nothing. From my experience it's a broad brush, generalisation thing that's instilled. How often have I read/heard similar to the below.

"We hate immigrants, but the Indian doctor who saved my wife's life is lovely".
"Send them all home... oh except Pawel. He's a great plumber".

However you could apply the above statements to Ireland and many other countries as well... Perhaps not on the same scale, but we certainly can't say the Brits are unique in this attitude.

As for sneaky and tricksy - It's the UK Gov. and politicians that are sneaky and tend to be the one's that try to pull a fast one. This trickles down somewhat to the more vocal, outspoken elements of society, but overall the vast amount of the UK general public aren't in the same vein as their Gov., which has managed to come across particularly badly in regards to Brexit (and their attitude to Ireland).

Zubeneschamali · 19-04-2018 12:00PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Absolutely. The comparisons to 'Mad Max wasteland' are more true than false

https://twitter.com/greg_jon1/status/965866033759358976

Professor Moriarty · 19-04-2018 12:01PM

From an incident in Hull last Sunday:

"A Polish man was chased by a group of 20 men and beaten with a nailed plank of wood in a “racially aggravated assault” in Hull, police have said. Friends of the man, who has not been named, said they were chased by 20 men after being overheard speaking Polish."

And:

"The racist attack follows repeated warnings about a recent spike in violent crime on Orchard Park. Three people were stabbed in less than a month on the estate between February and March, including a 21-year-old woman who was killed.
The friend of the Polish victim attacked on Sunday said he was scared to leave his home and that it was not the first time the group had been racially abused. He said he had been trying to move out of Orchard Park for more than six months.
“This sort of thing happens nearly every day to Polish people here,” he told the Hull Daily Mail.
“I have been living here for five or six years, and to start with I didn’t have any problems. Then the gangs started to realise I was Polish, and I have had problems ever since. Everyone is worried about it now. It is definitely getting worse.”"

Thomas__. · 19-04-2018 12:02PM

MBSnr wrote: »

Thomas__. wrote: »

I am sorry to say that even when considering the comments of her opponents in the British media, there is still a certain percentage of British people who either are in full support of her or give their tacit approval by doing nothing and saying nothing against it. In some ways, they just let the ugly face of the sneaky and tricksy Brit rear his head.

Yeap kind of it alright - saying nothing. From my experience it's a broad brush, generalisation thing that's instilled. How often have I read/heard similar to the below.

"We hate immigrants, but the Indian doctor who saved my wife's life is lovely".
"Send them all home... oh except Pawel. He's a great plumber".

However you could apply the above statements to Ireland and many other countries as well... Perhaps not on the same scale, but we certainly can't say the Brits are unique in this attitude.

As for sneaky and tricksy - It's the UK Gov. and politicians that are sneaky and tend to be the one's that try to pull a fast one. This trickles down somewhat to the more vocal, outspoken elements of society, but overall the vast amount of the UK general public aren't in the same vein as their Gov., which has managed to come across particularly badly in regards to Brexit (and their attitude to Ireland).

It is exactly the way how it all started in Nazi Germany in the 1930s, the same lines but when they came for those they exceptionalists wanted to keep, they turned away and looked into the other direction so that they could later say they didn't know what was going on.

As for the sneaky and tricksy Brit, it isn't just the UK govt, it is some part of the administration (up to the higher ranks) and not to forget those percentage of UK voters who voted for the Tories and the DUP (in NI). Of course you can find such people like these in every other European Country. The difference is as for today, they don't sit in governments in Western EU member states. It is quite similar in Hungary and Poland in regards of the attitude, but with the difference that these two countries have less EU nationals from other EU member states living there than of their own citizens living in other EU member states. Less to say about the amount of Muslims residing in Poland and Hungary.

EdgeCase · 19-04-2018 12:04PM

MBSnr: It's pretty universal. The Simpsons even captured it with their episode where Springfield votes on Proposition 24 which was a proposal to deport all immigrants. It was based on the fact that Mayor Quimby needed to create a smoke screen and find a scapegoat to blame a $5 tax increase on. The tax was increased to pay for a populist move responding to a demand for expensive Bear Patrol, driven by anti-bear hysteria.

Anyway, it turns out that Homer doesn't realise Apu is an immigrant and suddenly changes his mind having been a diehard proponent of the proposal, having realised that he knows someone in the situation. Also it gets revealed Mo is actually an undocumented immigrant and nobody ever noticed.

In the end, the proposition passes by a 95% majority, despite what looks like a successful campaign against it, but the only person deported is Groundskeeper Willie.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Much_Apu_About_Nothing

Back in the 1990s that show was an amazingly accurate cultural mirror.

MBSnr · 19-04-2018 12:10PM

EdgeCase wrote: »

MBSnr: It's pretty universal. The Simpsons even captured it with their episode where Springfield votes on Proposition 24 which was a proposal to deport all immigrants. It was based on the fact that Mayor Quimby needed to create a smoke screen and find a scapegoat to blame a $5 tax increase on. The tax was increased to pay for a populist move responding to a demand for expensive Bear Patrol, driven by anti-bear hysteria.

Anyway, it turns out that Homer doesn't realise Apu is an immigrant and suddenly changes his mind having been a diehard proponent of the proposal, having realised that he knows someone in the situation. Also it gets revealed Mo is actually an undocumented immigrant and nobody ever noticed.

In the end, the proposition passes by a 95% majority, despite what looks like a successful campaign against it, but the only person deported is Groundskeeper Willie.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Much_Apu_About_Nothing

Back in the 1990s that show was an amazingly accurate cultural mirror.

Yeah - Must catch up on the 100s of missing episodes.. I might be able to predict the future afterwards

Enzokk · 19-04-2018 12:12PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I've read in Tim Shipman's book, Fall Out that May afforded vast amounts of power and control to her "chiefs", Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill. This was probably what cost her the election. It stands to reason that they were allowed to run amok in the Home Office before she became PM. The Conservative party manifesto was written by Timothy and Ben Gumner with senior ministers like Jeremy Hunt having no input nor idea what was in store for their departments.

I don't know if she is racist. She might just think that the country is overpopulated. She even shoehorned her "tens of thousands" soundbyte in a speech gave before the referendum supporting Remain which resulted in her being sidelined. It's been Conservative party policy for some time so it's hardly anachronistic though why they just didn't cut EU migration back in 2010 and then actually try to work with the EU on some sort of compromise before this referendum is beyond me.

Well if her style of management is to delegate decision making to others she has to take responsibility for those decisions. It was her decision to trust others but the ultimate responsibility lies with the Home Secretary. Did anyone get fired for those vans? If not it seems to me that she was comfortable with the decision that was made.

As to whether she is racist/xenophobic, she was the only one of the ministers right after the referendum to not want to guarantee EU citizens their rights. Why?

Theresa May single-handedly blocked a plan to immediately guarantee the future rights of the 3m EU citizens in the UK last summer, George Osborne has revealed.

The then-Home Secretary was the only member of the Cabinet to oppose David Cameron, who “wanted to reassure EU citizens they would be allowed to stay”, after Brexit.

Brexit: Theresa May blocked plan to guarantee rights of EU citizens in the UK immediately after referendum

James O'Brien made the analogy on the hostile environment for illegal immigrants. If as a shop keeper you set out a policy that makes a hostile environment for shoplifters, you will inconvenience your other shoppers in the process. That is what we are seeing now, and that is what we will see with Brexit and EU citizens. To kick out the illegal EU immigrants the policies put in place will be an inconvenience to legal EU citizens. In the process, as we see with the Windrush story, innocent EU migrants will be treated with the same threats to try and catch the few illegal ones.

Thomas__. · 19-04-2018 12:16PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

From an incident in Hull last Sunday:

"A Polish man was chased by a group of 20 men and beaten with a nailed plank of wood in a “racially aggravated assault” in Hull, police have said. Friends of the man, who has not been named, said they were chased by 20 men after being overheard speaking Polish."

And:

"The racist attack follows repeated warnings about a recent spike in violent crime on Orchard Park. Three people were stabbed in less than a month on the estate between February and March, including a 21-year-old woman who was killed.
The friend of the Polish victim attacked on Sunday said he was scared to leave his home and that it was not the first time the group had been racially abused. He said he had been trying to move out of Orchard Park for more than six months.
“This sort of thing happens nearly every day to Polish people here,” he told the Hull Daily Mail.
“I have been living here for five or six years, and to start with I didn’t have any problems. Then the gangs started to realise I was Polish, and I have had problems ever since. Everyone is worried about it now. It is definitely getting worse.”"

That is exactly one of the examples I was referring to in general. The harassment of Polish people living in the UK started the time the BrexitRef result was announced and continued for days in a row across the whole of England in which there was a majority vote for leave. There are plenty of stories on this topic, interview videos on the BBC and elsewhere. Some people have downplayed this, but I always opposed that by saying that the Poles are just the first they have a go at, other nationalities will not be excluded when it suits the bigot thugs. Just like some Irish expat I met on another online-forum. That chap was a far-right supporter, anti-Muslim and in approval of the EDL and Britain First. He is probably still convinced that just because he's Irish he'll have nothing to fear from them. I often told him that he might be most certainly be proved wrong by the very people he sympathises with, but to no avail. When things get worse, and after a hard Brexit is what the UK is about to exit the EU with, they will get worse and the bigot racists will have a go at anybody that doesn't looks like a stereotype Brit. With a govt like this present one in charge, they certainly feel free to act as they please.

Professor Moriarty · 19-04-2018 12:29PM

Thomas__. wrote: »

That is exactly one of the examples I was referring to in general. The harassment of Polish people living in the UK started the time the BrexitRef result was announced and continued for days in a row across the whole of England in which there was a majority vote for leave. There are plenty of stories on this topic, interview videos on the BBC and elsewhere. Some people have downplayed this, but I always opposed that by saying that the Poles are just the first they have a go at, other nationalities will not be excluded when it suits the bigot thugs. Just like some Irish expat I met on another online-forum. That chap was a far-right supporter, anti-Muslim and in approval of the EDL and Britain First. He is probably still convinced that just because he's Irish he'll have nothing to fear from them. I often told him that he might be most certainly be proved wrong by the very people he sympathises with, but to no avail. When things get worse, and after a hard Brexit is what the UK is about to exit the EU with, they will get worse and the bigot racists will have a go at anybody that doesn't looks like a stereotype Brit. With a govt like this present one in charge, they certainly feel free to act as they please.

Yes they will. They'll turn anyone without an English/Scottish/Welsh accent. And the Irish will be in the firing line again - I experienced some severe racism in England in the late 80s/early 90s. It's not so long ago.

The Irish will be demonised for a hard Brexit if the Border Issue isn't solved. There have been some fresh shoots of anti-Irish sentiment recently, not least from the new UKIP leader last November when he tweeted:

UK threatened by Ireland. A tiny country that relies on UK for its existence. We should advise, we are free to revoke common travel area.

Which he followed up with:

Ireland is like the weakest kid in the playground sucking up to the EU bullies.

Thomas__. · 19-04-2018 12:48PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Thomas__. wrote: »

That is exactly one of the examples I was referring to in general. The harassment of Polish people living in the UK started the time the BrexitRef result was announced and continued for days in a row across the whole of England in which there was a majority vote for leave. There are plenty of stories on this topic, interview videos on the BBC and elsewhere. Some people have downplayed this, but I always opposed that by saying that the Poles are just the first they have a go at, other nationalities will not be excluded when it suits the bigot thugs. Just like some Irish expat I met on another online-forum. That chap was a far-right supporter, anti-Muslim and in approval of the EDL and Britain First. He is probably still convinced that just because he's Irish he'll have nothing to fear from them. I often told him that he might be most certainly be proved wrong by the very people he sympathises with, but to no avail. When things get worse, and after a hard Brexit is what the UK is about to exit the EU with, they will get worse and the bigot racists will have a go at anybody that doesn't looks like a stereotype Brit. With a govt like this present one in charge, they certainly feel free to act as they please.

Yes they will. They'll turn anyone without an English/Scottish/Welsh accent. And the Irish will be in the firing line again - I experienced some severe racism in England in the late 80s/early 90s. It's not so long ago.

The Irish will be demonised for a hard Brexit if the Border Issue isn't solved. There have been some fresh shoots of anti-Irish sentiment recently, not least from the new UKIP leader last November when he tweeted:

UK threatened by Ireland. A tiny country that relies on UK for its existence. We should advise, we are free to revoke common travel area.

Which he followed up with:

Ireland is like the weakest kid in the playground sucking up to the EU bullies.

Thanks for that. I think that even such statements from the horses mouth won't make people like that chap I have mentioned to wake up. Politically the UKIP is on constant decline in the UK as the Tories have take up all the kippers stand for and implement such policies under May. There won't be any UK candidates for the EU Parliament Elections from 23rd to 26th May 2019 as one can assume that with this present UK govt, the UK will formally be out of the EU by 31st March 2019. So there is no need and also no chance for the kippers to have any mandate anywhere except in local UK councils, if they are not all be voted out in the upcoming local elections on 3rd May this year. In fact, UKIP is almost finished but what they achieved by their Brexit campaign will certainly lead to the break up of the UK by another Scottish IndyRef2 which the Scottish govt will press to get in the light of a hard Brexit which is to be expected. Then the Kippers and the DUPpers have f*cked up their beloved UK and what will be left is some sort of that 'Little England' they are so fond of and a NI which will be cut off from subsidies they received all over the decades from London. If that really is all going to happen, and the chances are growing that it will happen, I can't other than say that they have well deserved that for they have brought it all onto themselves. I pity the others who were always against that because they will have to suffer the consequences as well.

The Irish border issue wouldn't be that big of a problem if it wasn't for the DUP and their stupid insisting on NI leaving the Customs Union and the Single Market in order to be on a 'equal fotting' with GB for the sake of 'remaining British'. I can only hope that many more people will realise who is in fact to blame for that in the first place if there will be a hard border in Ireland once again and the UK will crash out with no deal because of that, as Mr Tusk has just warned the UK once again because of the border issue. Still, the UK govt is doing nothing to come up with some solution on their side because the DUP is breathing down the neck of May and she's bending to Foster. That's probably what the DUP was always dreaming about, having the UK govt at their balls and the hands on the levers without being in govt themselves. That's all thanks to the folly of Mrs May's decision to hold a snap GE last year in which she lost the majority she took over from Cameron.

It is good to see that the Irish govt and the EU is standing firm against those bullies and one will see whether the DUP will prevail in the end or not. Better hope that they won't for the sake of peace in Ireland.

19-04-2018 12:52PM

MBSnr wrote: »

Yeah - Must catch up on the 100s of missing episodes.. I might be able to predict the future afterwards

Stop at season 10.

EdgeCase · 19-04-2018 01:06PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yes they will. They'll turn anyone without an English/Scottish/Welsh accent. And the Irish will be in the firing line again - I experienced some severe racism in England in the late 80s/early 90s. It's not so long ago.

Scottish accents can get you in trouble too.

https://www.shieldsgazette.com/news/crime/mum-to-be-jailed-for-race-hate-attack-on-scottish-woman-1-6658314

There have been incidents of people being told to "go home" on public transport in due to their Scottish accents and if you want too see the level of political debate that's going the term "poison dwarf" being used to refer to the Scottish First minister.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/tory-candidate-apologises-for-calling-nicola-sturgeon-a-poison-dwarf-1-4421311

ancapailldorcha · 19-04-2018 01:07PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Well if her style of management is to delegate decision making to others she has to take responsibility for those decisions. It was her decision to trust others but the ultimate responsibility lies with the Home Secretary. Did anyone get fired for those vans? If not it seems to me that she was comfortable with the decision that was made.

I'm not defending her, just trying to shed a bit of light on how it happened. Ultimately, she's the boss so the buck stops with her.

Enzokk wrote: »

As to whether she is racist/xenophobic, she was the only one of the ministers right after the referendum to not want to guarantee EU citizens their rights. Why?

Same reason a lot of people voted to Leave, ie they didn't want them there to begin with.

Enzokk wrote: »

Brexit: Theresa May blocked plan to guarantee rights of EU citizens in the UK immediately after referendum

James O'Brien made the analogy on the hostile environment for illegal immigrants. If as a shop keeper you set out a policy that makes a hostile environment for shoplifters, you will inconvenience your other shoppers in the process. That is what we are seeing now, and that is what we will see with Brexit and EU citizens. To kick out the illegal EU immigrants the policies put in place will be an inconvenience to legal EU citizens. In the process, as we see with the Windrush story, innocent EU migrants will be treated with the same threats to try and catch the few illegal ones.

Of course. It's an absurd, petty, ill-conceived and malevolent policy designed to sate the right wing of the Conservative party and Daily Mail readers.

Sam Russell · 19-04-2018 01:09PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Of course. It's an absurd, petty, ill-conceived and malevolent policy designed to sate the right wing of the Conservative party and Daily Mail readers.

Do not forget the Daily Express readers, or the Telegraph readers - they are just as rabid when it comes to immigrants.

Rjd2 · 19-04-2018 01:17PM

flutered wrote: »

the new party when and if it launches, will not be allowed to get traction

Its an interesting debate. Corbyn's white walkers have already started the attacks "why they don't give that money to the NHS instead" and obviously the tories are hardly going to stand by idly. I think it would need a very charismatic leader and at the moment not sure who. People like Chuka and Saubry should not be leading any sort of party whatsoever in 2018. I'd warn them to keep Tony Blair away from the party also as he's such an easy target atm.

Sam Russell wrote: »

Do not forget the Daily Express readers, or the Telegraph readers - they are just as rabid when it comes to immigrants.

The Express is basically Breitbart tbh. The Telegraph tbf isn't as hostile to immigrants, its still a relatively centre right newspaper.

Rjd2 · 19-04-2018 01:18PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Of course. It's an absurd, petty, ill-conceived and malevolent policy designed to sate the right wing of the Conservative party and Daily Mail readers.

Tbf plenty on the right of the party thought it was dumb, Mogg criticised that stance a bit and pretty sure even Farage thought it was unfair.

Enzokk · 19-04-2018 01:56PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm not defending her, just trying to shed a bit of light on how it happened. Ultimately, she's the boss so the buck stops with her.

Same reason a lot of people voted to Leave, ie they didn't want them there to begin with.

Of course. It's an absurd, petty, ill-conceived and malevolent policy designed to sate the right wing of the Conservative party and Daily Mail readers.

I hope my reply didn't come across as asking you for answers or defending her. I was more asking a general question on the interesting information you provided. I was wondering out loud why she shouldn't be held responsible and if there really is any evidence that would indicate that she isn't racist.

I can see how she is a very capable politician. She doesn't take any responsibility and she hides away when there is trouble only to resurface when it seems safe to do so.

Thomas__. · 19-04-2018 02:09PM

Enzokk wrote: »

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm not defending her, just trying to shed a bit of light on how it happened. Ultimately, she's the boss so the buck stops with her.

Same reason a lot of people voted to Leave, ie they didn't want them there to begin with.

Of course. It's an absurd, petty, ill-conceived and malevolent policy designed to sate the right wing of the Conservative party and Daily Mail readers.

I hope my reply didn't come across as asking you for answers or defending her. I was more asking a general question on the interesting information you provided. I was wondering out loud why she shouldn't be held responsible and if there really is any evidence that would indicate that she isn't racist.

I can see how she is a very capable politician. She doesn't take any responsibility and she hides away when there is trouble only to resurface when it seems safe to do so.

I don't see that sort of behaviour as attributes to a capable politician in a positive light. It is exactly that what brings more people to become frustrated by politics and politicians, turning away from it and not going to vote anymore. Such 'two-faced' characters like she is one of many are the types which many people are fed up with, only serving their own interests and that is above all to remain in power no matter what.

Apart from the tabloids and the diehard Tories, there is an increase in opinions by readers on a UK media outlet that call for her resign. Not the first time, it goes on for a considerable time since she became PM and that is due to her failings in many ways, in Brexit, the NHS crisis, the recent Windrush scandal and above all the perceived lack of leadership on her own as leader of the Tory Party and as PM. In fact, she appears like a puppet haning on the strings others, much propably her own enemies from within her own party, are pulling the strings.

I don't know what sort of proof some people yet need to realise of what mindset May really is and frankly, the way the Windrush People are treated in the past eight years (one should really consider that time frame) which came legally to the UK as British subjects and are in fact British citizens, it is more than obvious that this is blatant racism. The way she handles this matter and more over the way she set up the way to have them treated that bad is for me more than enough proof of her racist mindset. She apologised to them but she didn't really mean it. She has no sense of humanity herself and that was proved by the way she handled the recent NHS crisis.

May is in many ways worse than Thatcher, in very many ways.

Thomas__. · 19-04-2018 02:13PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Enzokk wrote: »

Well if her style of management is to delegate decision making to others she has to take responsibility for those decisions. It was her decision to trust others but the ultimate responsibility lies with the Home Secretary. Did anyone get fired for those vans? If not it seems to me that she was comfortable with the decision that was made.

I'm not defending her, just trying to shed a bit of light on how it happened. Ultimately, she's the boss so the buck stops with her.

Enzokk wrote: »

As to whether she is racist/xenophobic, she was the only one of the ministers right after the referendum to not want to guarantee EU citizens their rights. Why?

Same reason a lot of people voted to Leave, ie they didn't want them there to begin with.

Enzokk wrote: »

Brexit: Theresa May blocked plan to guarantee rights of EU citizens in the UK immediately after referendum

James O'Brien made the analogy on the hostile environment for illegal immigrants. If as a shop keeper you set out a policy that makes a hostile environment for shoplifters, you will inconvenience your other shoppers in the process. That is what we are seeing now, and that is what we will see with Brexit and EU citizens. To kick out the illegal EU immigrants the policies put in place will be an inconvenience to legal EU citizens. In the process, as we see with the Windrush story, innocent EU migrants will be treated with the same threats to try and catch the few illegal ones.

Of course. It's an absurd, petty, ill-conceived and malevolent policy designed to sate the right wing of the Conservative party and Daily Mail readers.

As I know that you're following up the UK media and that you've relatives of yourself in the UK from which you might probably get first hand informations, I wonder how you can still speculate about her real motives. It all has been cristal clear and the more she does wrong the more in emerges what sort of a character she really is.

Leroy42 · 19-04-2018 02:25PM

This paragraph, to me at least, sums up the UK approach to Brexit.

The government wants the EU’s “geographical indications” system to keep protecting British foods such as Stilton and Cornish pasties from imitation after Brexit – but has been unable to secure an agreement with Brussels on the issue because it is not committing to protecting EU products in return.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-regional-specialities-eu-protect-trade-deal-europe-cheese-food-drink-wine-a8312171.html

They want to keep what they have, based on rules EU designed, but are not willing to give the same in return.

Thomas__. · 19-04-2018 02:34PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

This paragraph, to me at least, sums up the UK approach to Brexit.

The government wants the EU’s “geographical indications” system to keep protecting British foods such as Stilton and Cornish pasties from imitation after Brexit – but has been unable to secure an agreement with Brussels on the issue because it is not committing to protecting EU products in return.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-regional-specialities-eu-protect-trade-deal-europe-cheese-food-drink-wine-a8312171.html

They want to keep what they have, based on rules EU designed, but are not willing to give the same in return.

I'm not surprised as they keep on going with their cherry picking.

Brexit discussion thread III

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