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Euromillions 2018 . . . . .

  • 30-01-2018 5:20pm
    #1
    jacool
    Registered Users Posts: 3,771 ✭✭✭


    . . . . . in which our hero tries to win loads of money early in the year to prevent a slide into the desperation of having to go with trebles and upwards from June onwards !!

    With that in mind: - Finally got a chance to look at some statistics - basic stats, after being blown away by the stuff in Accumulator’s thread!

    The premise about the “7”’s seems to be losing traction lately as the 4 “overdue” balls currently are 47, 27, 33 and 07.

    For fans of popular doubles, that have been keeping quiet, there are now 4 of these who haven’t been seen in the last 50 draws, and yet which are in the top 20 most popular pairs after 1080 draws.
    Not been seen in half a year are 14&21, 12&44, 26&49 and 26&50 while the second most popular pair of 11&29 has now not been seen in 94 draws! Its birthday party is due on 03 March!

    For the trebles, it’s a hard place to pick up a winner, based on what’s gone before.
    Of the top 30 trebles, only 4 have appeared in the last 50 draws. There’s certainly no way to predict a triple out of these lot.
    I was trying to see which trebles had a bit of history but were due, but there’s clearly nothing there.
    Three horrendously overdue are 22&27&36, 22&24&36 and 11&25&50 all going back to 2011, but they are outdone by 12&24&26 not seen since 2010!

    Just because I want to do something for the Euros, my main bet is 2 points on each of the five “overdue” doubles for tonight, namely 11&29,14&21, 12&44,26&49 and 26&50, all at odds of 100/1

    My stats point to these numbers 02 04 07 08 20 23 24 28 30 44 50 , whilst I also had a line leading me to deduce that the overall total would be 61 or less.
    However, 61 has only been the total once, and less than that only on 7 occasions.
    Despite that I am going to do 21 doubles (@100/1), 35 trebles (@1500/1)and 35 four-timers (33,000/1) from the first 7 numbers there, meaning 91 bets @ 0.1 point each
    I am left with 0.9 points then which I am placing as three trebles 0.3 pts each 11&13&21, 11&14&21 and 13&14&21

    So that's 20 points staked in total.
    GLTM
    Here's to ending the year in profit, even if not as much as 2017!


«13

Comments

  • #2
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Lucky 7 is still lucky-times-lucky-win-win. As 27 has just appeared again just tonight!

    To clarify are you doing x100 line bets, sounds a bit expensive? Albeit with separate values...

    I'd only be aiming for about x10 lines of similar value per draw e.g. 1single/6doubles/2trebles, maybe 1 quad.
    Only an (accidental) 100/1 double so far, just 1 second after 19:26 and the entry flows into the next available draw date.

    With so many lines, would suggest listing your lines or use Excel to make it easier to check after draws and calculate balances.
    I'm really only ever giving suggested ranges, (from array groups e.g. pick own from recommendations of group A,B,C etc).
    Just incase anyone looking in is jinxed, as having too many 10,000/1 close brushes over in horse-stick-ball accas.

    Methods, variables and their carried values are still w-i-p, but have around 20 so far, and will evolve.
    7's is one factor, but also too are zeros holding a positive value.

    Final note: Recommend shop tickets, just during this rare rollover occasion as jackpot is 100m+,
    accidentally promised the nice lady in the local shop a free 1%(1m) upon ticket success.


  • #3
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    You were actually very close today on that triple, whenever it's just 1 away it makes it somewhat worse.
    Think this is your lines below, with the results^ being: 11,15,21,27,35

    11^,13{-2},21^ | 11^14{-1}21^ | 13,14,21^ (T) [3]
    11^,29 | 14,21^ | 12,44 | 26,49 | 26,50 (D) [5]
    [“02 04 07 08 20 23 24”] (D/T/Q) [91]


  • #4
    jacool
    Registered Users Posts: 3,771 ✭✭✭jacool


    Ouch Result 11-15-21-27-35
    Hit the post (HTP) on the trebles, twice !
    Quote “I am left with 0.9 points then which I am placing as three trebles 0.3 pts each 11&13&21, 11&14&21 and 13&14&21”
    and what rolled up but 11&15&21, so I missed out, twice!
    Ah well, they were small stakes anyway.
    I will pare back to the doubles for Friday - could have done that with the 4 numbers I had selected and would have been up, but didn't.

    On the doubles, I also had two HTP's namely 11&29,14&21, for odds of 100/1


    Current status -20 points


  • #5
    jacool
    Registered Users Posts: 3,771 ✭✭✭jacool


    Bankroll – no limits! Current status -20 points

    Last week I played the 5 “shy” but “popular” doubles, and missed out on two of them.
    I’m leaving them alone this week and following two different lines of statistics.

    Line 1: Based on all draws where only odd numbers were selected, and the aftermath.
    These statistic throw up the numbers 01,02,23,24,29,30,43,50 and I’ll be using these in an attempt to win €110m tonight, leaning towards a high consecutive combination of Lucky Stars.

    Line 2: Based on all numbers “tipped up” by my overall, non-techie, analysis of the numbers.
    07,20,23,24,28,30,50
    As I have 7 numbers, like last week, I will repeat the dose again as follows.
    21 doubles @0.2 points (100/1), 35 trebles@0.1 point (@1500/1)and 35 four-timers@0.1 point (33,000/1) from the 7 numbers there, meaning 70 bets @ 0.1 point each =7 points plus 21 @0.2= 4.2 points
    I’ll have 4 point singles on 43 and 50 and finally an 0.8 point double on 43&50

    That’s 20 points staked this draw.
    GLTM


  • #6
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Results: 14 - 34 - 36 - 39 - 48. [02 - 03]

    Not great balls for either of our systems tonight, no wins on my end anyway. As always left it late and only got 5 mixed lines put through '365.
    But several of them are long-term low-appearing, 85%c expected performance. Are also top heavy compared to last weeks low-numerals.
    More variables to add in...

    Ball #40 must be due a call as is showing a serious deficit now and 68%c sub-par performance level, over the entire 1,082 draws.


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  • #7
    jacool
    Registered Users Posts: 3,771 ✭✭✭jacool


    The top 8 numbers, by appearances up-to-now, have been notable by their absence in the last 4 draws.
    Over the last 10 draws, there has actually been a huge outbreak of democracy, as no group of 10 is more popular than another.
    Therefore you could be lucky by just plucking one number from each decade and seeing what comes up.
    Admittedly, you’d be prone to picking 34 or 48 from the least popular decade, as they account for over 50% of the hits there in the last 10 draws.
    At the top end, number 19 hasn’t been seen since 24-Nov-2017, so that’s one I’d be keeping an eye on.
    In the next decade, number 26 was seen 7 days before number 19, so I’m watching that one as well.
    At the lower end, we can see why number 47 is fourth least selected ball, as it’s been missing now since 08-Sep-2017. I’ve almost lost complete faith in it – almost!

    Tonight, I’m paring back my bets to a few singles and doubles, based around 19 and 26. So watch 47 sail in!

    Two 3 point singles, 19 and 26
    Seven 2 point doubles, 10&19, 12&19, 19&25, 19&26, 21&26,26&44 and 26&49. that’s the standard 20 points used up.
    Either singles coming in will cover the stake for this week.
    GLTM!


  • #8
    jacool
    Registered Users Posts: 3,771 ✭✭✭jacool


    Here are three of tonight's winning numbers :)
    07, 29, 30
    My betting stake tonight is a 2 point patent with 2 point singles on each.
    That bring's the kitty to -80 :(

    My initial run through brought out 22 and 31 but its only been 12 draws since the last double repeat, and 25 draws back to the previous one. Just can't see lightning striking that quickly again.
    Any single returns 36 points, a double 274!
    GLTM.


  • #9
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    We can agree on 29 also a primary choice on my end.
    C'mon number 29, come in 29.

    Was perplexed about '7' have it with duality(+/-), as expecting low-end set tonight.

    Have you seen the new market offered by the UK Nat' lotto, it's a Euro 'HotPicks'
    £1m fresh squids for just 5main balls, no need for the stars, not a bad offering at all.


  • #10
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    There's 29 now, about time! 19 & 25 also...


  • #11
    jacool
    Registered Users Posts: 3,771 ✭✭✭jacool


    Have been up the proverbials lately, but looking forward to a Thursday night off, just me and the numbers!!
    Will try focussing on doubles, to see what "popular but overdue" pairs are ready to appear.
    Last night saw pair "14&29" move from 6th to 7th appearance, after an absence of over 200 days.
    That'll be the angle for Friday anyway as well as cashing in all Lottery winnings to try and win either
    €170m on my own or shared or
    one of 25 prizes of €1,000,000 in the "raffle number" draw.


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  • #12
    jacool
    Registered Users Posts: 3,771 ✭✭✭jacool


    Finally back to bring the bankroll down to a lovely -100 points.
    I'm ignoring the "obvious" double of 21&22 and instead am playing with these 5 numbers.
    10 point single #45
    4x 1.2 pt singles #32,#34,#40 and#49
    0.2 pt Canadian #32,#34,#40,#45 and #49

    Any single bar #45 returns 10.8 points
    If #45 comes up I'll have recovered 90% of my bankroll!
    If any two bar #45 come up then I'll recover 60% of my bankroll.
    GLTM


  • #13
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Check you 365 account, those fookers at '365 seem to have voided current opens, and restricted or blocked me from all future lottos.
    Don't think there is any other online vendor for these hotpick double/triples.

    Looks like they fear my lovely lucky balls.
    Ah suppose a shop is nearly as handy anyway.


  • #14
    jacool
    Registered Users Posts: 3,771 ✭✭✭jacool


    jacool wrote: »
    Finally back to bring the bankroll down to a lovely -100 points.
    10 point single #45
    If #45 comes up I'll have recovered 90% of my bankroll!
    01 - 29 - 33 - 45 - 47 04 - 08
    Expected high numbers, went for high number, just couldn't put anything with #45, but nonetheless a profitable draw, so bankroll now at -10.
    Tonight is a homework night and we'll see what it throws up!


  • #15
    jacool
    Registered Users Posts: 3,771 ✭✭✭jacool


    Facts that won’t be influencing my decisions tonight !!
    In the last 10 draws the most popular segments have been top 10 appearing numbers (bolstered by 44 appearing 4 times in this run) and the 31st-40th section (buoyed by the fact that last Tuesday’s draw consisted completely from this section!!)
    Looking at the last 10 draws numerically yields tips for 18,20,28,36 and 38, all even after an all odd result.
    The last 40 draws also lean towards the even numbers, in 24,28,30 alongside the two numbers with equal most appearances, 44 and 50

    I have ignored all of that and gone with two Canadians tonight, hoping that my results will be more exciting than the cliché of that country’s people.
    All stakes are for 0.4 points so that I’m spending 20.8 points, instead of the usual 20.
    Superstition points me towards this quintet 07,24,25,26,27
    Form lines based on all draws to now point me, more confidently, to this quintet 03,04,15,33,47
    This means of course that I’ll pull a single from each group!!

    Good luck to anyone waiting on #42, not out since before Christmas. Its also part of the "high scoring but gone missing doubles" with #03, which I'm tipping for tonight!!
    GLTM


  • #16
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    jacool wrote: »

    I have ignored all of that and gone with two Canadians tonight, hoping that my results will be more exciting than the cliché of that country’s people.
    All stakes are for 0.4 points so that I’m spending 20.8 points, instead of the usual 20.
    Superstition points me towards this quintet 07,24,25,26,27
    Form lines based on all draws to now point me, more confidently, to this quintet 03,04,15,33,47
    This means of course that I’ll pull a single from each group!!

    Good luck to anyone waiting on #42, not out since before Christmas. Its also part of the "high scoring but gone missing doubles" with #03, which I'm tipping for tonight!!
    GLTM

    Superstition always worth a shot just to rub the folks that run the 50/1 line.

    Would give either 42 or 18 a good chance for tonight, or Friday.

    Some of those Canadians are fine, knew a firecracker of a wild lady from up in the wilderness. wild. Instead today have procured a 'golden ticket' of a 5ball 1m, along with 1/2/3 hotpicking.

    kzHkVSJ.png

    There was a nice Phi lock on the last draw. So if 42 comes out, along with lowest range (2), can also lock in 27, 32, 33 using that theory.


  • #17
    jacool
    Registered Users Posts: 3,771 ✭✭✭jacool


    jacool wrote: »
    gone with two Canadians tonight, hoping that my results will be more exciting than the cliché of that country’s people.
    All stakes are for 0.4 points so that I’m spending 20.8 points, instead of the usual 20.
    Superstition points me towards this quintet 07,24,25,26,27
    Form lines based on all draws to now point me, more confidently, to this quintet 03,04,15,33,47
    This means of course that I’ll pull a single from each group!!
    Result 14 - 27 - 39 - 46 - 48 11 - 12

    One number from 10, not good, bankroll now at -31.
    Back to the homework!


  • #18
    sasta le
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,586 ✭✭✭sasta le


    Are you using or have made a software to help you pick?I might try the bookies with a few euros instead of buying quickpick from lotto terminal
    What bookies can you do the lotto in?
    Great threads by the way guys good reading


  • #19
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Not sure if jacool has any software, I just use various alternating methodologies based on archive stats.

    Plenty of charts over on https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057830955&page=5
    Main focus is overdue and expected elasticity. There is 10yrs worth of data freely available.

    The (online) bookies have generally all been banned for offering Euromillions by the lotto operators, from 6th April.
    As it was eating into their profits too much!

    The only options now are the bookie shop.

    /Or if you know someone in the uk can partake in the new EM-'Hot-picks',
    5balls = 1m squids (not the usual 30-40k nonsense) and price is 1.50 for this, so cheaper than main ticket.
    Maybe have a contract in place offering 10% commission though if using a 3rd party to do the shop walk.


  • #20
    jacool
    Registered Users Posts: 3,771 ✭✭✭jacool


    Tonight is Canadian night, more in hope than expectation.
    13 25 29 40 44
    All stakes are for 0.4 points meaning a cost of 10.8 points
    I am also doing four 1 point singles on 13 25 29 40 and a 5.2 point single on 44
    This brings the bankroll to -51
    44 coming up almost brings me back to break even territory
    Any other double would guarantee returning to profit for 2018.
    GLTM

    I'm planning to do some serious homework for the mega jackpot this Friday of €130,000,000, where I'll have expectation outweighing hope!

    @sasta le - I just have spreadsheets at the moment, not as “rocket-sciency” as Accumulator, but I also pull info from other Lottery statisticians and their sites. There’s probably some software out there in the ether, but I haven’t stumbled across it yet!


  • #21
    sasta le
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,586 ✭✭✭sasta le


    What bookies shops do Powers Ladbrokes Boyles etc?


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  • #22
    jacool
    Registered Users Posts: 3,771 ✭✭✭jacool


    Tonight is Canadian night, more in hope than expectation.
    13 25 29 40 44
    All stakes are for 0.4 points meaning a cost of 10.8 points
    I am also doing four 1 point singles on 13 25 29 40 and a 5.2 point single on 44
    This brings the bankroll to -51

    With a result of
    1103 fifteen twentyseven thirtythree thirtynine fifty 15 - 27 - 33 - 39 - 50 4 / 1 1 / 4 00s 12 - 2 - 3 - 2 - 1 164 Y
    the bankroll stays at -51
    It has been 46 draws since we had 4 odd numbers in one draw, though the numbers that fell last night had a sense of deja vu about them, with all bar one having appeared in the last three draws. I'll certainly be looking for three balls to fall in the 1-10 range on Friday night. That's 120 combinations, so I'll definitely be trimming that down in the next few days !

    @sasta le - All the bookies take the bets, but two notes
    1. Ladbrokes won't allow you bet on matching 5 numbers, in case all their shops have to close down
    2. Boyles have the best odds (for match 5) but also the lowest payout
    I end up going to PPs all the time, just in case I hit the big one !!!


  • #23
    jacool
    Registered Users Posts: 3,771 ✭✭✭jacool


    Two bets tonight, stake of 19 points, bringing bankroll to -70

    Lucky 15 @1pt 17,30,35,38
    Trixie @1pt 01,03,10

    GLTM
    Also planning to win the €130m as well :)


  • #24
    jacool
    Registered Users Posts: 3,771 ✭✭✭jacool


    Results 03-16-25-39-44 07-11

    Two bets tonight, stake of 19 points, bringing bankroll to -70
    Lucky 15 @1pt 17,30,35,38
    Trixie @1pt 01,03,10

    One leg of the trixie only so -70. Homework tonight with no sport to distract!


  • #25
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    jacool wrote: »
    Results 03-16-25-39-44 07-11

    Two bets tonight, stake of 19 points, bringing bankroll to -70
    Lucky 15 @1pt 17,30,35,38
    Trixie @1pt 01,03,10

    One leg of the trixie only so -70. Homework tonight with no sport to distract!

    Was interesting to see the long absent cold number 16 make a repeat show this month, so too cool-ish 33.

    On the opposite end of the spectrum, hot numbers 27 and 50 have also appeared twice.

    Might be worth mixing a couple of cold and couple of hots. Think 03 may have exhausted itself this month - Hot 17 did a triple show in March, maybe due a 1st show this April.

    Anyway time to look at the charts, and pin the selections up on the 'lucky vision-board'.


  • #26
    jacool
    Registered Users Posts: 3,771 ✭✭✭jacool


    Two bets tonight, stake of 19 points, bringing bankroll to -89

    Lucky 15 @1pt 09,33,41,50
    Trixie @1pt 03,35,37

    GLTM


  • #27
    jacool
    Registered Users Posts: 3,771 ✭✭✭jacool


    jacool wrote: »
    Two bets tonight, stake of 19 points, bringing bankroll to -89

    Lucky 15 @1pt 09,33,41,50
    Trixie @1pt 03,35,37

    GLTM

    Winning Numbers 06-15-17-42-48 Lucky stars 04-06

    Not at the races at all with these numbers.
    Homework must be done :(


  • #28
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    That 42 was some wait, 137 days. Of course it will pop out a couple more times now it's warmed up.

    There is a new low appearing set, a quartet of 81days, and + also not forgetting low frequency #18 (67 days),
    Sure that's the '1m squid 5ball quintuple' for Friday right there! (well 1 in 3,107,515 chance, in real terms of course).


  • #29
    racso1975
    Registered Users Posts: 5,273 ✭✭✭racso1975


    Did a Yankee based on what you have posted in this and other thread of 18,32,36,42 first time to do it and got 2 up so not too bad. Thanks


  • #30
    jacool
    Registered Users Posts: 3,771 ✭✭✭jacool


    Four bets tonight, stake of 18 points, bringing bankroll to -107

    Canadian 26 @0.5pt 09,11,17,37,43 stake 13
    Double @2 pts 24,25 stake 2
    Double @2 pts 39,45 stake 2
    4-timer @1 pt. 24,25,39,45 stake 1

    Excluding #24, that’s a very odd selection.
    GLTM

    For those of you obsessed by stats the top 4 numbers selected in the last 40 draws (in order) are 17,44,48 and 23.
    If you had chosen doubles from these 4 over the last ten draws only it would have cost 60 points, and recouped 404 !!
    Might look at such trends for the next 10 draws, i.e. stick with numbers that are relatively “hot”
    GLTYA


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  • #31
    jacool
    Registered Users Posts: 3,771 ✭✭✭jacool


    04 - 16 - 20 - 31 - 39 02 - 12

    Four bets tonight, stake of 18 points, bringing bankroll to -107

    Canadian 26 @0.5pt 09,11,17,37,43 stake 13
    Double @2 pts 24,25 stake 2
    Double @2 pts 39,45 stake 2
    4-timer @1 pt. 24,25,39,45 stake 1

    Just one number fell for me, so missed out on a 202 return.
    As intimated by Accumulator on his thread, our successes will not coincide for the next 10 draws anyway, as he goes for shy balls and I go for those I see trending for future glory!
    I’ll be staking 20 points each week, for 10 weeks, by doing the same doubles and trebles for the duration.
    Now, I just have to select those balls that are heating up nicely!


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