Brexit discussion thread III

Sam Russell · 01-04-2018 11:57AM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Meanwhile in Wales they may not be able to keep all the ports open
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-43514165

There is a quote in that link that is quite telling.

"The politicians will sort out the best we can and everyone will be unhappy with it."

I think that foretells the longer term prospects for Wales and for the UK. There appears that the Welsh have not realised how much subsidy they get from the EU purse, and how beholden they will be the the English at Westminster after they leave the EU. It is quite likely that a significant volume of the RoRo trucking will go direct from Ireland to France with the Welsh ports reduced to insignificance.

Just an aside, I was talking to someone in London yesterday who had booked a cheap holiday that was delayed by the bad weather. He had just got a fat compo check and was delighted as the delay did not actually discommode him much and the compo was actually a significant proportion of the cost of the holiday. He bemoaned the fact that the compo would be discontinued after Brexit.

Cheap flights, roaming charges, credit card surcharges, E111 health insurance, etc etc all gone this time next year.

joeysoap · 01-04-2018 12:41PM

Did they not agree an extension for 21 months?

Also I doubt many Brexiteers have changed their mind. The Remainers pointing out all the things they may lose is having no impact.

On the subject of E111, who carries the cost for the ‘extra’ passports issued to NI and UK resident holders of Irish possports ?

flatty · 01-04-2018 12:51PM

joeysoap wrote: »

Did they not agree an extension for 21 months?

Also I doubt many Brexiteers have changed their mind. The Remainers pointing out all the things they may lose is having no impact.

On the subject of E111, who carries the cost for the ‘extra’ passports issued to NI and UK resident holders of Irish possports ?

I dont think ardent brexiteers have. I think there were a significant number who voted without huge conviction. I honestly believe that if the return of roaming charges and queues at airports were spelled out well enough, a fair few would change their minds. The Welsh vote alone stands testament to the level of ignorance, which a basic information campaign could and should have addressed.

Econ_ · 01-04-2018 01:36PM

joeysoap wrote: »

Did they not agree an extension for 21 months?

If you were to just listen to the news cycles you would believe that the 21 month transition deal is signed, sealed and delivered.

When you actually look at the agreement and try to actually understand the detail (a process many in Britain don’t believe in, apparently) you will realise that the transition deal is agreed in principle but, and here’s the important part - it’s dependent on the UK withdrawal treaty being fully ratified and agreed by the EU and U.K.

Here’s the thing though - it has been accepted by both sides that a legally enforceable and operational version of the backstop solution (regulatory allignment on the island of Ireland to avoid a hard border) must be included in the withdrawal treaty.

It is still totally unclear how the UK can achieve this having already ruled out no border in the Irish Sea.

It is therefore unclear as to whether the withdrawal agreement will pass. Logically, this makes the transition period uncertain to go ahead.

Unfortunately, the UK’s relationship with facts and logic has deteriorated considerably over the last couple of years so the situation is being perceived rather differently.

First Up · 01-04-2018 01:54PM

flatty wrote: »

joeysoap wrote: »

Did they not agree an extension for 21 months?

Also I doubt many Brexiteers have changed their mind. The Remainers pointing out all the things they may lose is having no impact.

On the subject of E111, who carries the cost for the ‘extra’ passports issued to NI and UK resident holders of Irish possports ?

I dont think ardent brexiteers have. I think there were a significant number who voted without huge conviction. I honestly believe that if the return of roaming charges and queues at airports were spelled out well enough, a fair few would change their minds. The Welsh vote alone stands testament to the level of ignorance, which a basic information campaign could and should have addressed.

Roaming charges and airport queues only affect people who travel abroad. The typical little Englander doesn't like any of that foreign muck or funny languages. They holiday in Skegness.

CelticRambler · 01-04-2018 02:02PM

joeysoap wrote: »

On the subject of E111, who carries the cost for the ‘extra’ passports issued to NI and UK resident holders of Irish possports ?

The UK/NHS. EHICs (E111 is obsolete) are issued by the health authority to which you contribute through tax/social charges, not on the basis of your passport. I have an Irish passport, but it's one of the many French health authorities that provide me with an EHIC (a different one to the one that gives my eldest son his).

Tropheus · 01-04-2018 02:04PM

Interesting piece in the Guardian regarding the reaction of the BBC to Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/01/bbc-abdicates-responsibility-on-brexit?CMP=share_btn_tw

When the BBC is accused of bias, its reaction is always the same – executives and journalists protest that if all sides attack the BBC with equal force all the time then they must be doing something right. This plausible defence isn’t good enough when it comes to Brexit. As we enter the final year before the UK is due to leave the EU, there is a widely held belief among EU supporters that the BBC is guilty of something almost worse than bias – shutting down the story.

Strazdas · 01-04-2018 02:06PM

joeysoap wrote: »

Did they not agree an extension for 21 months?

Also I doubt many Brexiteers have changed their mind. The Remainers pointing out all the things they may lose is having no impact.

On the subject of E111, who carries the cost for the ‘extra’ passports issued to NI and UK resident holders of Irish possports ?

The transition period is not an extension. Everything changes very radically the moment the UK leaves next March. It becomes an ex-EU country at that moment with absolutely no way back in.

J Mysterio · 01-04-2018 02:13PM

First Up wrote: »

Roaming charges and airport queues only affect people who travel abroad. The typical little Englander doesn't like any of that foreign muck or funny languages. They holiday in Skegness.

Not so. Many go on their holidays to Marbella and have their stag in Amsterdam.

murphaph · 01-04-2018 03:57PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

The UK/NHS. EHICs (E111 is obsolete) are issued by the health authority to which you contribute through tax/social charges, not on the basis of your passport. I have an Irish passport, but it's one of the many French health authorities that provide me with an EHIC (a different one to the one that gives my eldest son his).

Yeah and the funny thing is when we go home to Ireland we can show our (in our case German, in yours French) EHICs to our old Irish GPs and in most cases be treated free of charge as it's processed like a medical card.

First Up · 01-04-2018 07:00PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

Roaming charges and airport queues only affect people who travel abroad. The typical little Englander doesn't like any of that foreign muck or funny languages. They holiday in Skegness.

Not so. Many go on their holidays to Marbella and have their stag in Amsterdam.

Yes, but they were mostly Remain. It was the pensioners dreaming of the past who swung it to Leave.

Water John · 01-04-2018 07:23PM

Incl some retired and spending a lot of their time, in Spain. As they say, go figure?

ArmaniJeanss · 01-04-2018 07:45PM

As an avid reader of the Express comment section, the holiday issues are generally filed away under 'the dagos need our money so much that there's no way they are going to make it difficult for us to travel'. It's a small scale version of the oft-mooted idea of the German car manufacturers 'needing us more than we need them'.

The roaming charges/Netflix thing is generally 'the EU trying to punish us, glad we are leaving the vindictive fascists'.

Strazdas · 01-04-2018 07:50PM

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

As an avid reader of the Express comment section, the holiday issues are generally filed away under 'the dagos need our money so much that there's no way they are going to make it difficult for us to travel'. It's a small scale version of the oft-mooted idea of the German car manufacturers 'needing us more than we need them'.

The roaming charges/Netflix thing is generally 'the EU trying to punish us, glad we are leaving the vindictive fascists'.

And the EU want Brexit cancelled because 'they need our money'.

The words 'completely paranoid and deluded' spring to mind.

Enzokk · 01-04-2018 08:44PM

Tropheus wrote: »

Interesting piece in the Guardian regarding the reaction of the BBC to Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/01/bbc-abdicates-responsibility-on-brexit?CMP=share_btn_tw

I don't think there is any doubt that the BBC has abdicated its responsibility on providing the truth and used "balance" as an excuse to further an agenda.

gimli2112 · 01-04-2018 08:48PM

this would be funny only we have 66 million of the most tyrannical people on the planet just to our right
I've lived in the uk, a lot of them are horrible

Water John · 01-04-2018 09:55PM

Other countries shouldn't feel too bad at not being liked, by the British. They hate the Welsh and the Scots, as well.

Econ_ · 01-04-2018 09:55PM

Exceptional piece here by Matthew Parris on the underlying forces that drive support for Brexit.

https://twitter.com/PaddyBriggs/status/977465859856879616

Capt'n Midnight · 01-04-2018 10:40PM

Michelle O'Neill calls for unity referendum within five years

possibly looking to see if anyone bites.

Water John · 01-04-2018 10:42PM

With Nicola probably on a similar line, they are all beginning to nibble, at the UK bum.

flutered · 01-04-2018 10:43PM

Strazdas wrote: »

And the EU want Brexit cancelled because 'they need our money'.

The words 'completely paranoid and deluded' spring to mind.

to the brexiteers that is the eu/remainders/remoaners

Capt'n Midnight · 01-04-2018 11:07PM

Econ_ wrote: »

Exceptional piece here by Matthew Parris on the underlying forces that drive support for Brexit.

https://twitter.com/PaddyBriggs/status/977465859856879616

IF and it's a big if Corbyn was to introduce PR in the UK it might reduce the number of Tory safe seats.

But it would also affect Labour safe seats so I won't be holding my breath. And Labour want of THE common market.

Rain Ascending · 01-04-2018 11:51PM

Econ_ wrote: »

Exceptional piece here by Matthew Parris on the underlying forces that drive support for Brexit.

https://twitter.com/PaddyBriggs/status/977465859856879616

Hmm, there's not a huge amount of insight here. The interesting question is what happens to the "shadow" he refers to, in the (likely) event that the segment of the population that associates itself with it, is disappointed by Brexit outcomes.

To a first approximation, you could consider this group to be predominantly UKIP voters prior to last year's general election. UKIP's vote declined dramatically in that election. From what I saw of voting patterns, it appears that roughly half went to Labour and half to the Conservatives. That suggests that their underlying nationalism is informed as much by economic and social memes as it is by more ideology/jingoism. In other words, Corbynism proved as attractive as May's "strong and stable leadership".

Even if the Conservative party opts for a Moggs or Johnson leader, say, after a Brexit full of compromises and costs from a "cake-ist" perspective, it's hard to see how they can attract back those UKIP voters whose natural inclination is towards traditional Labour. If Corbyn can avoid making any commitments around Brexit, he holds these voters for at least one election.

Of course, the strategies outlined above for both parties won't work much to hold the centre ground and would open up an opportunity that normally would be filled by a Macron-type figure ... were it not for FPTP.

Hung parliament (again), anybody, after a possible GE in 2019?

CrabRevolution · 02-04-2018 12:23AM

I don't get the impression there's really much desire for PR in the UK.Even during the AV referendum a few years back they strongly rejected a pretty watered down version of PR.

I remember before that referendum a newspaper I normally regard as being pretty sensible printed a cartoon mocking the fact that a candidate can "win" in a PR election with 20% of the vote. It was disappointing how they could miss the point that in PR it's less about winning individual battles, instead it's about ensuring that if a party gets 20% of votes they get close to 20% of seats.

FPTP is like the Monarchy. If you were starting a political system from scratch today there would be absolutely no chance you'd use FPTP or have an unelected hereditary head of state, but since they've had them so long and are used to it, they are very keen on keeping it.

J Mysterio · 02-04-2018 01:29AM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Michelle O'Neill calls for unity referendum within five years

possibly looking to see if anyone bites.

Jesus, that article is so basic and misleading to be actually offensive.

Lemming · 02-04-2018 02:31AM

CrabRevolution wrote: »

I don't get the impression there's really much desire for PR in the UK.Even during the AV referendum a few years back they strongly rejected a pretty watered down version of PR.

The AV referendum wasn't 'strongly rejected' as so much that there was a p1ss poor effort at informing the masses as to what it was, a p1ss poor voter turn out, and general apathy about the whole matter because everybody had a p1ss poor notion on it so a lot of people just voted "no" to retain the status quo - of which they did know about (or in so much as the general UK voting population pays much attention ... ). Voter turn-out was considered higher-than-expected at a whopping 41% which tells a story.

Capt'n Midnight · 02-04-2018 11:54AM

Lemming wrote: »

The AV referendum wasn't 'strongly rejected' as so much that there was a p1ss poor effort at informing the masses as to what it was, a p1ss poor voter turn out, and general apathy about the whole matter because everybody had a p1ss poor notion on it so a lot of people just voted "no" to retain the status quo - of which they did know about (or in so much as the general UK voting population pays much attention ... ). Voter turn-out was considered higher-than-expected at a whopping 41% which tells a story.

The information being presented was was all about how the result would change. EVERY time.

It should have been about "safe seats will still be safe", however a protest vote for a third party won't be wasted in marginals.

Regardless PR won't be happening before Brexit

Capt'n Midnight · 02-04-2018 12:05PM

https://www.ft.com/content/ed11507c-334e-11e8-ac48-10c6fdc22f03

Swiss bankers’ hopes of securing improved access to EU markets have been dashed by Britain’s plans to quit the bloc, the head of Switzerland’s banking association has said.
...
Brussels fears any concessions given now to Switzerland could set a precedent for the Brexit talks, bankers in Zurich believe. “The EU cannot grant Switzerland something while still negotiating with the UK,” said one.

It's not like the UK was going to get as good a deal as the Swiss anyway.

And this scuppers good relations between the UK and EFTA. While I doubt the UK was ever going to be let join, good relations would have helped.

VonZan · 02-04-2018 12:15PM

Swiss bankers shouldn't be allowed any additional access to the EU market. On one hand the EU is talking about tax harmonisation and stopping the laundering of money through the current EU banking set up and tax avoidance regime then they give access to one of the most private and poorly regulated banking systems in the world lined with dirty money.

Water John · 02-04-2018 02:05PM

If TM is going with this 'customs partnership', there will be no big move away from the EU, for the next 10 years.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/may-plans-customs-partnership-to-unlock-northern-ireland-dilemma-1.3448056

Brexit discussion thread III

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