Brexit discussion thread III

flutered · 29-03-2018 07:32PM

Skedaddle wrote: »

Well, from an investment point of view, you'd be a bit overoptimistic to invest somewhere that's got no guarantees of market access. Whatever transition deal is in place, it is temporary and will end.

The UK's inevitably going to go through some major bumps. I can't really see how that's avoidable.

I also still feel they're pinning far too much hope on Trump and the Republicans. It's quite possible that Trump will be up against a largely democratic house after the midterms and completely tied up in impeachment proceedings until the end of his presidency, and that could well be followed by a sensible, sane Democratic presidency in the states that could end up seeing the UK's position as very unhelpful in terms of US policy in Europe.

i have read elsewhere that due to the massive gerrymandering taking plae in the u.s. the dems are going to have to overcome more than a lack of votes to beat the republican party

Econ_ · 29-03-2018 07:32PM

wes wrote: »

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/979331640987176960

The ‘Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas’ caption is ironic in so far as they’re entire success as an organisation was founded upon persuading turkeys to vote for Christmas

flutered · 29-03-2018 09:04PM

Thomas__. wrote: »

The time is running out for them and I am sure that by continuing with this silly 'dance around it' - as you have very well put it - will leave them to Exit from the EU without a deal because it is not just time that is running out for the damn stupid Brexiteers, it is patience which is running out too, by the EU and the Scottish govt as well.

I have never witnessed nor read about any other Brit govt that is that incoherent, incapable, foolish and utter disorganised than this present one. Some days I can't fathom it, some days I just get fed up with this silly Brexit show and some days I just say to myself, well, if they want to have it that way, just let them go and don't give a fiddlers what comes for them afterwards. Afterall, they started like the ancient Romans, they reached their peak of might and power like them, they got on the decline and lost their Empire like them, now they are going to face their own downfall, just like them. For some anti-Brits this might give them some satisfaction, for me it is just some tragic farce which they have brought onto themselves by the sheer arrogance of a few bringing suffering to the many.

i believe that corbyn wants a brexit, after all how can he nationalise anything whist being in the eu

Skedaddle · 29-03-2018 09:28PM

flutered wrote: »

i believe that corbyn wants a brexit, after all how can he nationalise anything whist being in the eu

Well, it was largely the UK who insisted on those rules.

And there was no particular difficulty in nationalising the banks.

Water John · 29-03-2018 09:39PM

This is what is happening in relation to CU, Tory rebellion, includes Chris Patten and Douglas Hogg.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/29/nine-senior-tories-want-amendments-to-eu-withdrawal-bill

BTW, Flutered the US gerrymandering amounts to an 11% skew.

Econ_ · 29-03-2018 10:11PM

Ian Dunt with the most comprehensive article I've come across so far on the Irish Border issue.

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/03/29/disaster-road-the-brexit-irish-border-plan-and-why-it-won-t

...

This is the reality of the Irish border problem. It cannot be fixed. If you are outside the single market and customs union, there will be a border in Ireland. The Brexit solutions are perfectly admirable in their way and would be a good idea if they were introduced on other borders. But there is no time or capacity to implement them here, and even if there were they would not achieve the things their advocates claim they would.

Strazdas · 29-03-2018 10:42PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Good news everyone. IDS has come out on LBC radio today and said that dealing with the issue of NI border trade is "easy to do".

Mr Duncan Smith told LBC: "You don’t need to talk about a hard border for goods that have been shipped for long distances because you just increase the number of operators that are licensed to declare before they reach the border.

"Bear in mind Northern Ireland is two percent of Ireland’s total trade that crosses that border, it’s very small indeed. Therefore it’s very controllable, very easy to do."

He didn't expand on it, but seems we have all been worried about nothing!

Whether IDS actually believes any of that nonsense or is just spewing it out to keep the average Brexiteer quiet is anyone's guess. These are very slippery characters driving the Brexit bus.

J Mysterio · 29-03-2018 11:30PM

Boris is going on about the money saved from leaving the EU again. 'Brexit dividend' he calls it. Asked about this, May says 'we will no longer be sending money to the EU, so we will have more money for services.'

This base, simplistic shıte is representative of what has been said for years now. As if there was a pile of UK money they kept and some was just being constantly sent away as a tax to the EU, and that the UK saw no benefit from that. Like they were wasting this money or being robbed with no return. The UK can find much better use for that money! It's not actually serving a purpose but going into Junckers pockets!

You'd have to wonder if a significant part of the electorate actually understand that to be the situation. As if they cannot comprehend that it is neccesary for members to fund the EU to see any benefit from it. They just have the outrage, and that's enough.

Do they realise that the EU provides money back? This is never mentioned in any of the media or debates in the UK. Things like that the EU provides structural funding to regions of the UK. They say the EU is trying to take NI from the UK, "no PM could ever accept that". The EU has been keeping NI afloat for years, with their screwy economy and bloated public service. The EU has been supporting countless Welsh towns, and the Valleys, which have turned to rot after the death of mining and the absence of anything else.

Do they know the EU supports industry in the UK? That the Northern cities have voted their manafacturing base out of existence with Brexit?

Do they know the EU funds research and education? Road building, and all sorts of ****.

There's so very much for the UK to now manage and administer. They need to bolster their own public sector to cope with the new arrangements and to carry out programs which will need funding at a time that their economy will tank. They need to start fresh trade deals at a time when they are weak and exposed. They need to stimulate industry at a time when they are actively pushing out professionals - who needs experts?

The EU set standards also. Minimum protections for workers, minimum standards on products and food. Without the EU, the UK is already stated to be looking at ripping out all these protections in a short sighted grab for a quick buck. Zero contract hours are a problem now? Wait till the economy is fucķed and workers have less rights, not more. Wait till they are all eating chlorinated chicken while apples rot in cornish fields.

Capt'n Midnight · 29-03-2018 11:59PM

Brexit: Netflix 'passport' not yet decided

It is too early to say whether so-called content portability rules will extend to UK citizens after Brexit, the government has told the BBC.
...
From Sunday, the new EU regulations will let people who subscribe to video and music platforms access the "home" version of their account while visiting other countries in the EU.

Like free roaming it's one of those nice EU things.

Capt'n Midnight · 30-03-2018 12:08AM

Brexit: UK hopes to roll over 40 EU trade deals, says Liam Fox

So far the only thing rolling over is the UK. On every EU position so far after lots of noise within the conservative party.

On theory is because the Tory brexiteers are saving their thunder for later on when they'll break the whole thing to get a no deal Brexit so they can concede to every thing now because it doesn't matter.

Enzokk · 30-03-2018 02:45PM

Skedaddle wrote: »

Where's he getting that 2% figure ?

http://www.assemblyresearchmatters.org/2017/06/14/goods-northern-ireland-export-much-worth-go/

"In 2016, goods exports to the RoI were valued at £2.4 billion, equivalent to 31% of total goods exports value and approximately 56% of the value of goods exported to the EU."

I believe he is probably looking at the NI exports to the Republic total. So they exported around £2.4bn and our total imports were around 70bn euro in 2016. So that would be 2% of our imports are from Northern Ireland.

flutered wrote: »

i believe that corbyn wants a brexit, after all how can he nationalise anything whist being in the eu

AFAIK the EU doesn't prevent nationalization of industries. I believe the problem is with subsidizing your industries and I guess if Labour does nationalize they want the option to subsidize them to be competitive in the initial years.

flutered · 30-03-2018 03:49PM

Skedaddle wrote: »

Well, it was largely the UK who insisted on those rules.

And there was no particular difficulty in nationalising the banks.

he has visions of nationalising, the rail network, plus a few other odds and ends, with help from the taxpayer

BonnieSituation · 30-03-2018 04:25PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I believe he is probably looking at the NI exports to the Republic total. So they exported around £2.4bn and our total imports were around 70bn euro in 2016. So that would be 2% of our imports are from Northern Ireland.

AFAIK the EU doesn't prevent nationalization of industries. I believe the problem is with subsidizing your industries and I guess if Labour does nationalize they want the option to subsidize them to be competitive in the initial years.

If he nationalises the railways there will be no competition. As it stands, the idea of competition in the UK model is rather laughable. That's what fries my brain when it's suggested here.

Enzokk · 30-03-2018 04:54PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

If he nationalises the railways there will be no competition. As it stands, the idea of competition in the UK model is rather laughable. That's what fries my brain when it's suggested here.

That could be. It would depend if they will open up the bidding to other companies or not though. The EU seems to want a harmonized system where there is competition for services all over the EU by all companies in the EU. See the passport printing contract that went to a EU company. Whether this is the way to go as it does lend itself privatisation is up for debate.

But if a state provides aid to their own provider this means they can then undercut contracts in their own/other countries. This is illegal and why I could see Jeremy Corbyn being happy with Brexit.

Skedaddle · 30-03-2018 04:55PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I believe he is probably looking at the NI exports to the Republic total. So they exported around £2.4bn and our total imports were around 70bn euro in 2016. So that would be 2% of our imports are from Northern Ireland.
.

It kind of ignores the fact that they're low-value, high-bulk often agricultural goods and that a lot of NI goods may transit the Republic on the way on to other markets via Irish ports.

Enzokk · 30-03-2018 05:08PM

Skedaddle wrote: »

It kind of ignores the fact that they're low-value, high-bulk often agricultural goods and that a lot of NI goods may transit the Republic on the way on to other markets via Irish ports.

Lies, damned lies and statistics. The position of Brexit is weak so you expect someone arguing in its favour to fudge the numbers to bolster their argument.

Skedaddle · 30-03-2018 05:17PM

Obviously, but I find sometimes the UK media is not fact checking or challenging these statements at all.

Econ_ · 30-03-2018 05:23PM

If May was to resign or her leadership contested, what is the mechanism whereby the Conservatives would select a new leader?

PopePalpatine · 30-03-2018 06:18PM

Conservative MPs are balloted multiple times (where the least popular candidate gets eliminated) to whittle the candidates down to two, and then every other member of the party is balloted to pick the winner.

Tropheus · 30-03-2018 07:00PM

Skedaddle wrote: »

Obviously, but I find sometimes the UK media is not fact checking or challenging these statements at all.

That all goes back to "the will of the people". There is paralysis amongst the media and political system in the UK. Anyone who seriously challenges Brexit will be held up as a traitor in the right wing rags. This is Cameron's legacy.

Skedaddle · 30-03-2018 07:12PM

Tropheus wrote: »

That all goes back to "the will of the people". There is paralysis amongst the media and political system in the UK. Anyone who seriously challenges Brexit will be held up as a traitor in the right wing rags. This is Cameron's legacy.

They need to grow a backbone! It's not a proper journalist's job to placate tabloids.

Econ_ · 30-03-2018 07:16PM

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Conservative MPs are balloted multiple times (where the least popular candidate gets eliminated) to whittle the candidates down to two, and then every other member of the party is balloted to pick the winner.

Thanks.

I just got thinking on who would be best placed to win the leadership if May was to fall.

I actually don’t see Rees-Mogg winning against a less extreme candidate if he made it through to the final two.

Capt'n Midnight · 30-03-2018 08:12PM

Econ_ wrote: »

If May was to resign or her leadership contested, what is the mechanism whereby the Conservatives would select a new leader?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1922_Committee

The 1922 Committee has an 18-member executive committee, the chairman of which must oversee any election of a new party leader, or any Conservative party-led vote of confidence in respect of the current one; such a vote can be triggered by 15 percent of Conservative MPs writing a letter to the chairman asking for such a vote.

IIRC the hard brexiteers have the 15% needed to trigger this

Capt'n Midnight · 30-03-2018 08:15PM

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Conservative MPs are balloted multiple times (where the least popular candidate gets eliminated) to whittle the candidates down to two, and then every other member of the party is balloted to pick the winner.

and they like to use canon fodder too , setting up no-hopper candidates to see who bites , but that can backfire too when the vote gets split and they go for a compromise that no one really wanted

Sam Russell · 30-03-2018 09:07PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

and they like to use canon fodder too , setting up no-hopper candidates to see who bites , but that can backfire too when the vote gets split and they go for a compromise that no one really wanted

That is how Margaret Thatcher got elected. She ran as a stalking horse but got elected by accident because the backers got their numbers wrong.

Charles Babbage · 30-03-2018 09:19PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Whether IDS actually believes any of that nonsense or is just spewing it out to keep the average Brexiteer quiet is anyone's guess. These are very slippery characters driving the Brexit bus.

He was in British Army in NI in the 70s. He knows perfectly well this is nonsense. It is very irresponsible.

An Claidheamh · 31-03-2018 04:06AM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

He was in British Army in NI in the 70s. He knows perfectly well this is nonsense. It is very irresponsible.

Would explain a lot.

Many are, despite whatever accent or title they have, just...... dim.

By the way, has anyone noticed that since the last phase of talks the Brits, just like the first phase STILL haven't come up with a solution regarding the border!

Incidentally, to labour a point about the intelligence levels, or lack thereof, of the people IDS is trying to fool.

Here's one of the most popular comments on the BBC website re a recent article about the border:

" "If there is bloodshed because of a return to the troubles as a result of Brexit everybody who voted to leave will have blood on their hands."

No - they won't...

The mindless Irish thugs who commit the bloodshed will be responsible!
This goes far deeper than just a hard border - if it didn't, they wouldn't be murdering each other - and they still are, because of religion! "

Oh dear....

Capt'n Midnight · 31-03-2018 11:47PM

For those hoping Labour will rescue the UK from brexit they look more lame duck all the time. How many elections have the Conservatives won by default because there's been no credible opposition ?

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43605840

Anti-Semitism row official Christine Shawcroft quits Labour NEC
...
Ms Shawcroft - who is a director of the Corbyn-backing campaign group Momentum - resigned from another position as chair of Labour's disputes panel.
...
Ms Shawcroft will be replaced on the NEC by comedian Eddie Izzard.

Capt'n Midnight · 01-04-2018 12:10AM

Major UK company taken over by asset stripper, the sort of thing that devaluing your currency can lead to. Then again only 10% of the employees are still in the UK
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-43584083

Airbus, which is supplied by GKN, said it would be "practically impossible" to give new business to GKN if Melrose's offer was accepted because it damaged long-term investment prospects in the company, which could reduce R&D budgets and limit innovation.

Capt'n Midnight · 01-04-2018 11:11AM

Meanwhile in Wales they may not be able to keep all the ports open
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-43514165

Mr Martineau feared less freight "could close the port", as there may not be enough business for docks at both Pembroke Dock and Fishguard to operate.

Brexit discussion thread III

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