Brexit discussion thread III

Peregrinus · 15-03-2018 03:16AM

trellheim wrote: »

Is it in the Irish interest to push the EU for the easiest possible Brexit ... discuss...

An easy Brexit is very much in our interests.

And, yes, it is very much in our interests to push for an easy Brexit. With you so far.

But here's where we part company: you want us to push the EU?

That's mad, Ted. There's no need to push the EU. The EU's preferred outcome, obviously, would have been no Brexit at all. But that's off the table now, given the referendum outcome and the positions taken since by the UK government. The EU's next best option would have been that the UK would remain in the Single Market, in the Custom Union, join the EEA, etc, etc, but these are all being ruled out by the British and their absurd "red lines".

Are you seeing the pattern here? It's not the EU that putting increasing distance between the EU and the UK; it's the UK that's doing that. The EU wants the closest possible relationship; the UK has been putting barrier after barrier after barrier in the way.

In so far as Ireland is in a position to push anybody, we should be pushing the UK. In terms of minimising the impact on Ireland, all the threats to us stem from decisions the UK makes, positions the UK takes. The EU's reaction to those has been entirely rational, and entirely predictable. They have devised the closest relationship they feel is feasible, given the barriers the UK has erected. In doing that, they have prioritised Ireland's interests, which (happily) align with the EU's interests). The have signalled that, if the UK can lower some of its barriers, the EU would be very keen to have a closer relationship, and that would certainly minimise the impact on us. What is needed is for the UK to accept what the EU is offering, but only the UK can do that.

Whatever influence we have should be devoted to getting the UK to accept the easier Brexit that the EU is keen to offer them.

murphaph · 15-03-2018 06:43AM

trellheim wrote: »

What ? You don't see a place for pragmatism here ? Which particular principles are you defending here. If Irish people ( in Ireland ) are the worse for Brexit over our own principles, have we "won every time" to use your own words ?

We have to play the long game. The common and later single market has benefited Ireland immensely, much much more so than our "close economic ties" with the UK before joining the EEC.

We have perhaps benefited at least as well as other countries like Germany as we are an exporting nation.

It is annoying for us that the UK has chosen this path and we will be disproportionately affected by it but I believe we might suffer a worse fate if the single market is diluted for the benefit of the UK. We don't just export to the UK. We compete within the single market with the UK.

Ireland should pursue a policy of massive encouragement of UK companies to Ireland. We owe them nothing.

LeinsterDub · 15-03-2018 10:38AM

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/15/david-davis-says-he-could-live-with-shorter-brexit-transition-period

David Davis, the Brexit secretary, has said he “could live with” a 21-month transition period as Britain leaves the EU. He made the concession, demanded by commission negotiators, with EU talks in Brussels a week away.

A other win for the EU . At this stage I don't know the UK just doesn't go away and sit in a corner and just sign whatever the EU produces or just declare they are going to a hard brexit now.

Skedaddle · 15-03-2018 10:48AM

It was interesting to hear an Irish tech company this morning on the news having their IPO on the NASDAQ North in Sweden. Their spokesperson mentioned they didn't list in London at least partially because of Brexit uncertainties. Although, they seemed to be very focused on the North American and Scandinavian markets so the listing made sense and NASDAQ is a great brand for tech companies, Brexit appeared to be a consideration.

I wonder though, how many other companies around Europe have decided to avoid London markets and Brexit potential chaos?

Leroy42 · 15-03-2018 10:54AM

The problem is that Brexit has given the companies a reason to rethink any move or stay in the UK.

Whether they actually do or not is only the outcome, but UK have created the possibility to lose investment and jobs and I have yet to see anything that forms a basis as an advantage to counteract that.

It is a highly competitive global marketplace for FDI investment, and getting rid of one of the key advantages seems odd to say the least. The only response I have heard, either here or from the politicians, is that the UK is a great place and a large market. Both of them are of course true, but they had them already, with the addition of being with the EU.

Water John · 15-03-2018 11:22AM

I think Unilever are due to announce today that their sole HQ will in future, be in Rotterdam. When will the British public and their politicians start getting the hint.

demfad · 15-03-2018 11:30AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/15/david-davis-says-he-could-live-with-shorter-brexit-transition-period

A other win for the EU . At this stage I don't know the UK just doesn't go away and sit in a corner and just sign whatever the EU produces or just declare they are going to a hard brexit now.

As it is not possible to negotiate even a very simple FTA in this time period this effectively means that the UK will face the cliff-edge 21 months after Brexit i.e. leaving with no deal in place.

ancapailldorcha · 15-03-2018 11:59AM

Unfortunately, it looks like Unilever are pulling out of the UK in favor of the Netherlands:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43410155

I thought that this would be more common but I think it might be down to confidence in industry that some form of deal between the EU and the UK might still come to pass which will retain a good amount of access to the single market.

Zubeneschamali · 15-03-2018 12:28PM

Water John wrote: »

I think Unilever are due to announce today that their sole HQ will in future, be in Rotterdam. When will the British public and their politicians start getting the hint.

This was stated on SKY News this morning, but they served up a lot of spoof about how this was just streamlining of corporate blahdeblah and no jobs would be lost in the UK as a result.

Uh-huh, sure.

VinLieger · 15-03-2018 12:37PM

trellheim wrote: »

Yes of course I do ; I firmly believe the focus should be on minimizing the impact on Ireland, and part of that should be pushing the rest of the EU to go easy on it and forward planning for that. The wrong Brexit will badly affect us. There are certain things we can and should be doing.

Go easy how? Like just stop pushing the UK for any concrete plans at all on what they want or how they suggest to achieve it? Cus that sounds like a quick and easy path to a hard brexit going by their behaviour so far.

Literally all the EU have done so far as is ask "so what do you want and how do you plan to do it?" and the reply has been akin to that of a screaming child throwing a tantrum every time consisting of "BREXIT MEANS BREXIT"

trellheim · 15-03-2018 12:39PM

But here's where we part company: you want us to push the EU?

That's mad, Ted. There's no need to push the EU. The EU's preferred outcome, obviously, would have been no Brexit at all. But that's off the table now, given the referendum outcome and the positions taken since by the UK government. The EU's next best option would have been that the UK would remain in the Single Market, in the Custom Union, join the EEA, etc, etc, but these are all being ruled out by the British and their absurd "red lines".

Are you seeing the pattern here? It's not the EU that putting increasing distance between the EU and the UK; it's the UK that's doing that. The EU wants the closest possible relationship; the UK has been putting barrier after barrier after barrier in the way.

In so far as Ireland is in a position to push anybody, we should be pushing the UK. In terms of minimising the impact on Ireland, all the threats to us stem from decisions the UK makes, positions the UK takes. The EU's reaction to those has been entirely rational, and entirely predictable. They have devised the closest relationship they feel is feasible, given the barriers the UK has erected. In doing that, they have prioritised Ireland's interests, which (happily) align with the EU's interests). The have signalled that, if the UK can lower some of its barriers, the EU would be very keen to have a closer relationship, and that would certainly minimise the impact on us. What is needed is for the UK to accept what the EU is offering, but only the UK can do that.

Whatever influence we have should be devoted to getting the UK to accept the easier Brexit that the EU is keen to offer them.

Completely accept all of that. But - its only one side of the equation ! - it does not benefit Ireland - quite the reverse - the harder the Brexit is .

We can affect two sides of that albeit indirectly on on one side - the UK side and the EU side. Strikes me both sides should be worked.

Taoiseach and Coveney have been consistent on this - that we need to be the UK's best friend in negotiating their Brexit because its in Ireland's best interest to do so.

15-03-2018 12:41PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

This was stated on SKY News this morning, but they served up a lot of spoof about how this was just streamlining of corporate blahdeblah and no jobs would be lost in the UK as a result.

Uh-huh, sure.

It is just a streamlining of the rather odd and unwieldy corporate structure.

The key bit though is that it opted to become Dutch rather than British. It reflects poorly on the UKs attractiveness as a location for a headquarters.

Harika · 15-03-2018 01:11PM

Deleted User wrote: »

It is just a streamlining of the rather odd and unwieldy corporate structure.

The key bit though is that it opted to become Dutch rather than British. It reflects poorly on the UKs attractiveness as a location for a headquarters.

Financial Time looks at it from both sides: https://www.ft.com/content/4fcd127c-282e-11e8-b27e-cc62a39d57a0

and comes to this conclusion:

This has nothing to do with politics at all. It is really about mergers and acquisitions — being able to more easily do them, as much as block them from the US.

Read what Unilever has actually said: “The proposed simplification will provide greater flexibility for strategic portfolio change and help drive long-term performance.” Expect more deals — across whichever borders you care about.

CrabRevolution · 15-03-2018 01:46PM

trellheim wrote: »

Completely accept all of that. But - its only one side of the equation ! - it does not benefit Ireland - quite the reverse - the harder the Brexit is .

We can affect two sides of that albeit indirectly on on one side - the UK side and the EU side. Strikes me both sides should be worked.

Taoiseach and Coveney have been consistent on this - that we need to be the UK's best friend in negotiating their Brexit because its in Ireland's best interest to do so.

Imagine we did that and gave the UK the cakeist deal you want to give them.

We'd then have a neighbour which gets to negotiate its own trade terms but at the same time trade freely with the EU. Gets to set its own standards yet export to the EU with no checks. They'd be able to lower working standards and remove regulations that the rest us have to abide by. They'd also get a bigger say in EU affairs than they do now since in the cakeist ideal they're treated as being equal to the entire EU.

Can you not see the huge advantage that would give them, and how it would attract companies away from Ireland?

Not to mention the fact it would destroy the EU. The ink won't yet have dried on the "cake treaty" before other countries immediately announce they are leaving the EU and want the same deal the UK got. Greece will demand no more financial regulation, Poland will insist on no refugee arrangements etc.

Our economy along with the entire European economy would tank as the single market collapses.

It's in Ireland and the EUs interests to stop brexit, or failing that to hold the line and insist that if brexit means brexit, then being an EU member means being an EU member. You can't choose what you want with no responsibilities.

Zubeneschamali · 15-03-2018 01:51PM

trellheim wrote: »

Strikes me both sides should be worked.

As long as our policy is to reaffirm EU solidarity and cohesion, the EU will be 100% on our side in negotiations with the UK.

If we make the EU choose between cohesion and narrow Irish interests in trade with the UK, they will choose cohesion.

trellheim · 15-03-2018 01:56PM

Imagine we did that and gave the UK the cakeist deal you want to give them.

Cakeist ? There will be enough in the 26 other countries pushing hard enough for blood , no need for us to push hard.

I think my point is being misunderstood; its in our interest to be the 1 out of the 27 being the best friend. Cakeist lol. Do you honestly think I want to give them an easy ride ? It's Ireland's interests for me - first last and always and that absolutely demands a pragmatic approach here.

Zubeneschamali · 15-03-2018 02:01PM

trellheim wrote: »

its in our interest to be the 1 out of the 27 being the best friend.

UK policy from Day 1 has been to try and divide us from the EU.

Divide and conquer. Best friend my hole, they would drag us out with them if they could.

VinLieger · 15-03-2018 02:33PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

UK policy from Day 1 has been to try and divide us from the EU.

Divide and conquer. Best friend my hole, they would drag us out with them if they could.

Many of the leavers like boris, farrage et al have tried to push the false line that we would be better off joining them, sure didnt nigel come over and make people pay a couple of hundred quid last month so they could hear him say that?

J Mysterio · 15-03-2018 02:47PM

VinLieger wrote: »

Go easy how? Like just stop pushing the UK for any concrete plans at all on what they want or how they suggest to achieve it? Cus that sounds like a quick and easy path to a hard brexit going by their behaviour so far.

Literally all the EU have done so far as is ask "so what do you want and how do you plan to do it?" and the reply has been akin to that of a screaming child throwing a tantrum every time consisting of "BREXIT MEANS BREXIT"

Kinda like how May stood up in Parliament and blamed Russia for the attack in Salisbury (nevermind saying this to the Security Council). It may well have been the Russians (probably was), but there's no proof of it. It could have been framed to have been the Russians, it could have been a False Flag. It could have been Spectre.

The point is that if you havent done the work, and have evidence on your assertions, you are just going by your 'feelings' and 'feelings' are not a basis to conduct international diplomacy, or trade. It's an embarassment. They are laughing their holes off in Russia, whether or not they are culpable. Amateur hour.

UK said invitation to Lavrov was withdrawn. Lavrov's spokeswoman said 'he hadnt accepted the invitation yet'.

Skedaddle · 15-03-2018 03:20PM

To be fair the Russian thing is likely to be something to do with their own internal bonkers electoral politics and trying to portray Putin as a strongman and they do have a bit of a track record of doing this kind of thing.

However, it's ridiculous that the UK and US on the one hand are understandably outraged by this incident but at the same time are effectively allowing themselves be trolled into undermining and damaging both the EU and NATO with their mutual throwing decades of pragmatism and sanity down the toilet.

Who's driving that? Is it the Russians? Is it the tabloids? Is it disaster capitalists?Or are they just becoming the catch all excuse for mornic, jingoistic, nativist, self destructive politics?

What's the point of ranting and raving about this while happily accepting oligarchs' money and being waist deep in Russian interference allegations ?!

If may were really going to do something, she would need to start by cleaning up the city of London and closing its respectabilised money laundries.

steddyeddy · 15-03-2018 03:48PM

trellheim wrote: »

Completely accept all of that. But - its only one side of the equation ! - it does not benefit Ireland - quite the reverse - the harder the Brexit is .

We can affect two sides of that albeit indirectly on on one side - the UK side and the EU side. Strikes me both sides should be worked.

Taoiseach and Coveney have been consistent on this - that we need to be the UK's best friend in negotiating their Brexit because its in Ireland's best interest to do so.

But the best Brexit for Ireland is for Britain to stay in the customs union. It's also the best Brexit for maintaining peace in Northern Ireland. We're pushing for that to happen and I don't see what more we can do. If we push for the EU to compromise on its principles then it might actually end up worse for us because we'll be contributing to the destabilisation of the EU.

trellheim · 15-03-2018 03:48PM

UK policy from Day 1 has been to try and divide us from the EU.

Divide and conquer. Best friend my hole, they would drag us out with them if they could.

Oh for heavens sake. That has absolutely nothing to do with it. We will be worse off when they leave. Lets try and mitigate that.

Leroy42 · 15-03-2018 04:00PM

trellheim wrote: »

Oh for heavens sake. That has absolutely nothing to do with it. We will be worse off when they leave. Lets try and mitigate that.

Right. How?

The Uk have decided to leave. As such, if we stay in EU then there must be a border between the UK and EU. The current UK position is that NI will form part of that split.

So we are basically faced with two options. Either side with the EU or side with the UK.

A possible third option is that we push the EU to give in to the UK demands. But that would then put us a a significant disadvantage to the UK as they could easily reduce the standards/regulations and thus undercut us.

Which are you claiming we should be doing?

Zubeneschamali · 15-03-2018 05:12PM

trellheim wrote: »

We will be worse off when they leave. Lets try and mitigate that.

So far, the EU have been playing a blinder on exactly this. The UK have already agreed to no deviation from EU rules and regs if they would cause a hard border.

What more do you want?

steddyeddy · 15-03-2018 05:29PM

trellheim wrote: »

Oh for heavens sake. That has absolutely nothing to do with it. We will be worse off when they leave. Lets try and mitigate that.

Listen you've just provided empty platitudes. What do you you want people to do?

listermint · 15-03-2018 05:37PM

trellheim wrote: »

Oh for heavens sake. That has absolutely nothing to do with it. We will be worse off when they leave. Lets try and mitigate that.

..... We are.

You are just completely blind to it, it appears.

Harika · 15-03-2018 05:53PM

trellheim wrote: »

Oh for heavens sake. That has absolutely nothing to do with it. We will be worse off when they leave. Lets try and mitigate that.

Yeah that it is the exact dilemma of Brexit. UK and EU will be worse off after Brexit, whatever the outcome will be. And the UK playbook was from the beginning to divide the EU and then get the best deal out, from the pressure of within the EU. This hasn’t happened. All the industries have not changed each countries stance toward Brexit. 12 months in, and the EU front is still standing, a big problem for the UK.

For the EU, there is one way to lessen the impact of Brexit, and that is throwing all their red lines over board and basically agreeing that the UK stops paying a membership fee, has full access to customs union and the single market, gets transfer payments out of the budget and everything else. That will work short term fine, until the first country decides that Brexit was a great idea and exits on the same terms UK was given. This means the end of the EU and we are back to 50 years ago.

Does that clear why there are those red lines from the EU?

flatty · 15-03-2018 06:27PM

Honestly, if I were the eu, I would look at doing exactly this, BUT, I would make it a major irritant to the great British public on a personal level, ensuring long queues at every tourist border, sitting back and watching the roaming charges go through the roof, and generally demonstrating at every turn the non commercial benefits of the EU.
That way there would be no collateral damage, the brexity population will atrophy, and the younger people will be far more likely to rejoin lock stock and barrel. It's the small steady things that make the EU great, that and the sense of place and solidarity.
This phoney war is being waged on the wrong terms. The EU needs to step back, and work on positive PR aiming for complete UK integration in 20 or 30 years, with no opt outs.
That's what I think anyway.
May, Boris Davies gove and their ilk will soon enough be gone and forgotten.
The next generation should be led to water gently, not whipped.
It'd stick in everyone's craw, the triumphant braying, but a couple of hours in a sweltering airport queue every time they want to go on holidays, and a hundred quid extra in flight tax, and a weak currency would slowly squeeze the calves rather then dragging the reins.
Won't happen though. Too much pride at stake.
I think the EU is a sense of purpose rather than an economic stick.

flatty · 15-03-2018 06:28PM

I'd add that the red lines are teresa mays, and teresa mays only.

15-03-2018 06:52PM

Would that not play into the hands of the tabloids narrative of an evil EU?

Denying the British the benefits of the EU should be enough, there is no reason to punish them. It would also be harder to agree amongst the 27 if say the costs of the lost holidays were to be disproportionately felt by the Spanish or whoever.

Brexit discussion thread III

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