Cheltenham Antepost Tickets

robwen · 04-03-2018 11:49PM

Gringo180 wrote: »

No odds were available on him on PP last night for the Supreme.

Yeah I checked it myself last night that's why I posted

culline · 05-03-2018 12:01AM

Anyone else like the look of Last Goodbye in the Brown Advisory Plate?

jimjamcos · 05-03-2018 12:14AM

The whole reason why this rick exists is down to fact that Bet365, and their bots, can't marry antepost Cashout with antepost NRNB.

*Bet365 are the only bookie to ever offer Cashout on antepost bets AFAIK.*

For example, when Samcro sluiced up at Leopardstown, they went 6/4 like all other books but unlike their rivals, this meant that anyone who had their Ã¢â€šÂ¬10 on Samcro NRNB at 10's for Supreme a week before could cash out for around Ã¢â€šÂ¬40 profit, esentially buying money. I'm sure many then utilised Cashout at this point to ensure profit given NRNB made backing horse for both races possible.

From a liability point of view, they clearly calculated the financial risk involved and made a business decision that it would cost them less to push him back out to 14s, eliminate any Cashout costs and limit any subsequent bets on him which this thread shows.

They're simply balancing the books between what they'll definitely lose in Cashout if shortening him and if he actually runs and wins the race.

They pushed him out on day Eddie O'Learly confirmed him for Ballymore (and lowered to standout shortest price for 2m4 race) which of course gives them a valid excuse for the move and paints a rather more positive picture for media than fact they're ducking Cashouts.

The next few days will be interesting though because they're likely to be at the point where all the Ã¢â€šÂ¬31s are potentially losing them as much as Cashouts.

The only real fix for them now would be removing him from market altogether but that would be harder explained. Their Cashout payout must be significant already but for every bet struck at 14s there's less and less chance they'll ever shorten him again and increase Cashout payout when connections have confirmed Ballymore.

A very dangerous game they're playing.

Gavin "shels" · 05-03-2018 01:29AM

https://twitter.com/CheltenhamRaces/status/970312035304198145

prettyboy81 · 05-03-2018 08:34AM

Sure had €20 on him myself like most of the lads in the knowledge that 99% he runs in the Ballymore. However, that 1% chance of the Supreme at 14/1 sure its just like lodging money in my BET365 account ahead of the Festival and not using it, same difference.

jimjamcos · 05-03-2018 08:36AM

9/1 now.

Slattsy · 05-03-2018 09:17AM

Bollox.

FatRat · 05-03-2018 09:23AM

5/2 now. Bet365 sh*tting the pants. Can cashout for 70 profit if you've 30 on.

Slattsy · 05-03-2018 09:26AM

FatRat wrote: »

5/2 now. Bet365 sh*tting the pants. Can cashout for 70 profit if you've 30 on.

Ah bollox.

Charlie George · 05-03-2018 09:37AM

Won't let me cash out.

FatRat · 05-03-2018 09:44AM

Charlie George wrote: »

Won't let me cash out.

Yeah same now. The option was only available for a while after the drop in price to 5/2. I think I was getting 103 cashout for 31.25 bet. Probably would've ended up taking it to be honest. Hopefully it becomes available again.

prettyboy81 · 05-03-2018 10:02AM

No cash out available for me.

Charlie George · 05-03-2018 10:14AM

prettyboy81 wrote: »

No cash out available for me.

Cash out available again but only your stake will be paid out.

Charlie George · 05-03-2018 10:19AM

Samcro into 5 1/2 to 1 on betfair.

Urindanger · 05-03-2018 10:32AM

Samcro 5/2 now from 14/1 and Apples Jade now 14/1 for the CH from 25/1 last night when I threw a sly few on the double. Have to be happy with that. Shame Samcro has been burned in so heavily though

kiers47 · 05-03-2018 10:36AM

Charlie George wrote: »

Samcro into 5 1/2 to 1 on betfair.

As I said earlier there was only about 200 quid required to get him to about 3/1.

*Worth noting that there is a bit more cash coming into the market now. I'd say people would be happy enough to lay him at single figures.

Mr321 · 05-03-2018 11:17AM

Sceau Royal out with a setback...

All aboard Footpad...

akelly02 · 05-03-2018 11:17AM

ye are all mad i think, i can see ye are all getting excited by it, hate to burst a few bubbles but he will run in the ballymore and thats all there is to it!!

and even if he did run ye are talking like he has it won before he jumps a hurdle. getabird could shake him up if he did turn up.

best of luck anyway,

kiers47 · 05-03-2018 11:21AM

Its hardly mad to want to back a 2/1 or 3/1 shot at 14/1. Risk free. Even if the chance of him showing up are 0.00001% then it is still +EV.

Fanny Wank · 05-03-2018 11:21AM

akelly02 wrote: »

ye are all mad i think, i can see ye are all getting excited by it, hate to burst a few bubbles but he will run in the ballymore and thats all there is to it!!

and even if he did run ye are talking like he has it won before he jumps a hurdle. getabird could shake him up if he did turn up.

best of luck anyway,

If the ground is soft there's a real chance he switched IMO

I'm most certainly not saying he'll win but anyone who punts and doesn't take 14/1 (remember it's NRNB) about a sub 2/1 shot should give the game up

Urindanger · 05-03-2018 11:28AM

akelly02 wrote: »

ye are all mad i think, i can see ye are all getting excited by it, hate to burst a few bubbles but he will run in the ballymore and thats all there is to it!!

and even if he did run ye are talking like he has it won before he jumps a hurdle. getabird could shake him up if he did turn up.

best of luck anyway,

Didn't Gordon say Supreme would be likely if ground is soft, which is looking very likely.

Either way it's 30 quid NRNB @14/1 for a horse that won't be to far off even money if he lines up. You would be insane not to have taken 14/1.

akelly02 · 05-03-2018 11:28AM

Fanny **** wrote: »

If the ground is soft there's a real chance he switched IMO

I'm most certainly not saying he'll win but anyone who punts and doesn't take 14/1 (remember it's NRNB) about a sub 2/1 shot should give the game up

to take the bet is completely correct but the excitement thats running through the thread is as if hes a cert to go in the supreme, and win it

danganabu · 05-03-2018 11:29AM

kiers47 wrote: »

Its hardly mad to want to back a 2/1 or 3/1 shot at 14/1. Risk free. Even if the chance of him showing up are 0.00001% then it is still +EV.

Fanny **** wrote: »

If the ground is soft there's a real chance he switched IMO

I'm most certainly not saying he'll win but anyone who punts and doesn't take 14/1 (remember it's NRNB) about a sub 2/1 shot should give the game up

Exactly, its like some people dont like value, or worse still cant recognise value, B365 have made a major cock-up here and while they may get away with it on this one, if they were to make a habit of laying 6/4 shots at 14s they wouldn't ever have gotten to where they are.

akelly02 · 05-03-2018 11:29AM

Urindanger wrote: »

Didn't Gordon say Supreme would be likely if ground is soft, which is looking very likely.

Either way it's 30 quid NRNB @14/1 for a horse that won't be to far off even money if he lines up. You would be insane not to have taken 14/1.

O Leary calls the shots, he has said ballymore full stop

Id say its 90/10 in favour of ballymore unless its nearly unraceable, which wont happen

danganabu · 05-03-2018 11:31AM

akelly02 wrote: »

O Leary calls the shots, he has said ballymore full stop

Id say its 90/10 in favour of ballymore unless its nearly unraceable, which wont happen

Even if you percentages were right - I'd say more a 70/30 chance myself, its still insane value, there is literally no downside, I really can't fathom how anyone can't see that

Urindanger · 05-03-2018 11:32AM

akelly02 wrote: »

O Leary calls the shots, he has said ballymore full stop

Id say its 90/10 in favour of ballymore unless its nearly unraceable, which wont happen

Look I think he runs Ballymore too but why is Gordon saying otherwise then? It'd be incredibly unprofessional and stupid to say Supreme is a possibility if O Leary has been in his ear saying Ballymore or nothing. O Leary is a smart man, he's not going to disregard the trainer completely if Gordon thinks Supreme would be a better trip.

kiers47 · 05-03-2018 11:33AM

akelly02 wrote: »

to take the bet is completely correct but the excitement thats running through the thread is as if hes a cert to go in the supreme, and win it

I think you are misunderstanding excitement for peoples bemusement at how absoutely bizarre it is that Bet365 were still laying bets on this obvious rick for the bones of 5 days.

FatRat · 05-03-2018 11:41AM

Someone has a huge Ballymore AP bet I reckon. To call people mad for backing a 14/1 shot that could well be odds on if he lines up is some sort of strange begrudging. Nobody said he's a cert to win it if he lines up and the excitement here, if any, may even just be due to the fact that people will have the opportunity to lay him the morning of the race for a tidy profit, or better yet see it out for a dream start to the festival. I won't miss 30 quid for a week anyway. If it's refunded I might just use it to back him in the Ballymore.

Mr321 · 05-03-2018 11:49AM

You wouldn't think there was 27 other races on at the festival next week

:D:D

Slattsy · 05-03-2018 12:04PM

I missed the Cash Out option earlier.
I was hoping to sit on it and see how the weather was looking before making a call. I didn't think they'd completely remove it, although understandable B365 did!

Anyway, completely risk free so no loss to anyone, and hopefully some people did cash out for the few bob profit.

Cheltenham Antepost Tickets

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