Cold Spell Late Feb/ Early March Technical Discussion only MOD NOTE POST #1

sdanseo wrote: »

Dublin TAF

Thats an upgrade from the previous taf which had +SN as a possibility.

sdanseo wrote: »

Dublin TAF

TEMPO 0121/0209 0300 +SN OVC002 2100 to 0900 heavy continuous snow, visibility 300m (or less, overcast at 200ft which is airport elevation)

Just to note that cloud bases stated are above aerodrome elevation, not above sea level.

Snow depths up to midday today. No real increase now in the east with the blowing snow. Precip total for the 6 hours 0.2 mm at Casement and <0.05 mm at Dublin Airport. None at Cork or Knock.

Netweather showing rain over southern half of county on Saturday -

PukkaStukka wrote: »

In the 07:55 forecast on Radio 1 earlier, Joanna Donnelly mentioned a risk of severe thunderstorms along the south and east coasts. This doesn't seem to have been picked up elsewhere, so I'm curious to see if the seasoned model watchers and readers here concur with this from what they see? Is the synoptic setup conducive to wide scale sferics?

Note to mods: I posted similar to this earlier but it was moved to the cold snap thread. I'd appreciate if the regulars here could answer it as the moved one drew no responses!

if I remember a long way back when we had systems coming up from the south there were embedded thunderstorms, I think it will depend how cold it gets tonight as it happened before when temps for -3 or -4

PukkaStukka wrote: »

In the 07:55 forecast on Radio 1 earlier, Joanna Donnelly mentioned a risk of severe thunderstorms along the south and east coasts. This doesn't seem to have been picked up elsewhere, so I'm curious to see if the seasoned model watchers and readers here concur with this from what they see? Is the synoptic setup conducive to wide scale sferics?

Note to mods: I posted similar to this earlier but it was moved to the cold snap thread. I'd appreciate if the regulars here could answer it as the moved one drew no responses!

The only thing I can see is the chance of elevated thunderstorms from CAPE originating from the approaching warm frontal inversion at around 850 hPa. Above that lapse rates will be fairly steep, but I wouldn't have though steep enough for severe storms.

EDIT: Actually, lapse rates are nowhere near steep enough above the inversion imo. Not quite sure where the idea of thunderstorms is coming from. Will be watching this one with interest.

Wexford, 6 am tomorrow,

typhoony wrote: »

you've been proved wrong a few times recently.

So what's your take on it?

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Just to add the above mod note , can we please show a bit of respect to the experienced posters in here who are sharing a lot of information and educating a lot of us as to the dynamics involved in the weather / weather forecasting

We lost a lot of good members on this forum a few years back and it wont happen again !


Now I can get back to happily watching a potentially historic event for myself .

Please let me echo this. I have been critical of some posts that I think differently to, but I hope very respectfully so. There is a huge difference between a healthy debate and an argument or de-railing of the thread which frustrates people, not least those giving freely of their time to update us all and share their knowledge, which in many cases is vast and hugely appreciated - even when we don't like it!

Please please from a regular joe's point of view let's respect each other and just enjoy the weather.

Similarly just looked at emma on the netweather radar and it is going very much east I think of where progged? The short term hirlam app thing on the met.ie website suggests similar I think? Looks like it doesnt make land fall in Cork til 9pm whilst it hits the east coast much earlier? Have I this all wrong? (sorry for all the question marks btw!)

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Latest European sat. At this stage, 'Emma' looks very disorganised and in general, is moving in a NNE direction.



hard to see how we in the W/NW would get much out of this, unless the wind is so strong that drifting and snowflakes from the event in the east are blown over towards us on this side of the isle!

It was never going to affect your area. If it had it's likely those seeing snow in the south would be seeing rain instead. I said the models extending it nearly countrywide a few days ago were not to be trusted.

STATUS RED

Snow-ice Warning for Munster and Leinster
Update
Sub-zero temperatures and further heavy snow showers this afternoon.
Blizzard like conditions will develop in the southeast and south this evening and extend northwards tonight. Southern and eastern coastal counties will be worst affected.

Issued:Thursday 01 March 2018 12:38
Valid:Thursday 01 March 2018 13:00 to Friday 02 March 2018 12:00

And we are back to just Munster and Leinster for RED warning

If Hirlam verified we will be talking about this event to our grandchildren