Match Thread: Wales v Scotland, Cardiff, Sat 03 Feb 14:15, BBC1

Venue: Principality Stadium Date: 03 Feb 2018 Kick-off: 14:15 GMT Coverage: Watch live on BBC One.

“Ambition is Critical”

The big question for wales this tournament is not whether their inexperienced players will rise to the occasion but more so whether they have a coach who can alter his very rugby DNA to get the best out of this ‘Scarlets and friends’ welsh team. Wayne Pivac has Scarlets humming like a well engineered machine over the last 18 months, playing an exciting brand of rugby that dismissively swept aside the best the Irish provinces could throw at them on their way to the Pro12 victory last season. They play with ambition. They carry out their plays with a clinical efficiency of skill, steel and a team playing as one mind. Can Warren Gatland either get this team to play in the manner he wants, or can he himself change his philosophy to suit these new players he has found himself in charge of. First impressions to me say no. Everything good the scarlets do is based on an engine room of tidy fast breakdown work. Central to this is James Davies, who must have a room at home overflowing with ‘man of the match’ awards. Hes a tackling, rucking and turnover machine. Not the tallest flanker in the world at 6’, he uses this lower centre of gravity to great effect over the ball, latching like a limpet. He quite useful in the loose as well, 9 tries in the last two season.

However, Gatland has firmly focused on bulk and power with his back row selection of a 5.5 and two no. 8’s. He intends to attack the line out with the inclusion of Shingler at 6 to compliment Hill and AWJ. Josh Navidi has deserved a shot at 7 for the last few years, but personally I think it’s a case of too little too late for him. Hes not consistent enough for the Blues in my eyes, though when hes on form hes excellent. With Moriarity at 8, it’s a strong but not particularly mobile welsh back row. It’s a selection based on an attacking style of ‘same old same old’ of fold around and bash up, rinse and repeat to the trams, then spread.

Out the back, Rhys Pratchell is lucky to have found himself at 10, or unlucky, depending on how you look at it. Primarily a 15 these days, hes there as a result of Biggar and Priestland picking up injuries. Gareth Anscombe never lived up to the hype when he first came over from kiwi-land. The big question for welsh fans will be can he steer the ship, especially in periods under pressure. His scarlets team mate Gareth Davies will take some of the kicking pressure off him, but if Pratchell cracks, this welsh team wont function. The backline is fully Scarlets apart from the debutante Josh Adams, who has been excellent for Worcester recently and deserves his place. With him, and Evans on the other flank, wales have real speed and deadly finishing ability out wide…… but how many chances will they get?

The one area in the back line I think wales are stronger than their Scottish counterparts is in midfield. Scott Williams has found himself back in the fold and will be eager to impress. He was unlucky to have found himself vying for the same shirt as the Player of the Lions Tour last year. It cannot be underestimated how much positivity and threat comes from Jonathon Davies at 13. Can Williams offer more than his size and bulk allow for?
Hadleigh Parkes is another kiwi convert who has had an excellent last 2 season, again as an integral part of Pivacs system. At 30 however hes not the future of welsh rugby and cant be seen as anything more than a decent stop gap. This will be his first true test of high pressure tournament rugby and questions exist over his ability on this stage.

Wales aren’t coming into this competition in any real form. Last November saw them go down inevitably to yet another defeat against the Aussies (their 13th in a row). That was an Aussie team that were humiliated by Scotland two week later. They followed that up by a very below par performance against the Georgians before a 2 point victory over the (very poor) Bokke restored some pride. Parkes shining in this one on his debut, with a two try return.

With Dan Biggar, Jonathan Davies, Sam Warburton, Rhys Webb, George North, Taulupe Faletau, Liam Williams, Rhys Priestland, Jake Ball and Dan Lydiate all unavailable…
does Gatland have the ambition to release and allow these Scarlets players play in a manner they are accustomed to? Does Gatland think that style will work in the pressure cooker of a Six Nations tournament?

Does Gatland have the ambition?





“Proud to be Scottish”

Can you feel it? Is it nagging you as well? That little birdy in the back of your head whispering about a decent coach, with a good rugby brain, and decent attacking exciting half backs, maturing together, an exciting open style…. Something tells me this could be Scotland’s breakout year. They certainly should be targeting three wins at a minimum, and having England in Edinburgh must have them salivating.

Yes, we know Scotland are decimated in the front row. They are down six props and three hookers (there’s a joke in there somewhere). We know they recalled a 36 year old hooker to the bench who made his debut 13 years ago and hasn’t played test rugby since 2014. We know they’ve called in a 34 year old debutante hooker to the squad. One Glasgow front row in the six named says it all. But…. But….

Its time for Scotland to stand up and be proud of itself. Proud of its current standing in international rugby, proud of its recent form and results. 2017 started with home victories against Ireland, Wales and Italy and a narrow loss against France in Paris. The rest of the year saw them beat Italy well again, and then two victories against the Aussies, the first hard fought in Sydney, the second a comprehensive humiliation of them in Murrayfield. Oh what wales would give for such results! Sandwiched in between was a narrow 5 point loss to the world leaders. These are results that Scotland can look on with pride and to stop looking on as punching above their weight.

At the foundation of this resurgence of Scottish rugby has been the Glasgow influence of Townsend as coach, but more importantly in my opinion the two Glasgow lads at half back. For years everyman and his dog could see that Laidlaw was the blunt cog in the wheel of what they were trying to do. Ponderous meekatting was slowing down an exciting back line. But, he was captain, and he kicked. Now that Ali Price has overtaken him things have improved vastly. Now we have a 9 who is slippery around the ruck, quick and accurate in his pass, and has no fear throwing to 13 or blindside wingers off the base. Outside him he has, in his club team mate Russell, a very exciting 10 who likes to play on the edge of the line. Hes a 10 who is quite happy to take it into contact as his support runners know he has the hands to look for the off load at every opportunity. He has now mixed in a maturity to his play that he lacked when he first broke onto the scene. Hes more adept from the tee and very comfortable from hand. These half backs are complemented with a third playmaker and outstanding player in Hogg at 15. Probably the best full back in world rugby right now (until Ben Smith comes back after his hiatus). Hogg is a fans dream. Always exciting to watch and eager to try the unexpected. When he steps into the line he draws defenders attention every time, either leaving space out wide, or, if he gets a soft shoulder, he away himself.

Outwide Seymour is seasoned at this stage and we know what we will get from him. On the other flank the Sale winger Byron McGuigan has impressed in his first two caps. The first Namibian to play with Scotland?

The big question is up front, and especially the front row. Is the drop off in quality to the dirt trackers too big to overcome? Gregor has gone for experience in this area, hoping that they can hold their own in the scrum. Behind the front row Scotland have a slightly more dynamic five than wales, in an attempt to turn this into an open game rather than an arm wrestle. In my opinion the backrow of Barclay, Watson and du Preez is more balanced than the welsh, and it’s an intriguing contest as the team that wins the collisions wins the game.

Does Scotland have the pride in itself that it needs to win this game?



Prediction

All previews have this as a coin toss. Some have gone from wales less than 5, some for Scotland less than 5. The bookies have Wales in and around -2. Personally, I think that not only are they without the quality of the players who are unavailable, they are without the leadership that these players bring. Warburton, Biggar, Davies, Falateau are all big game players who lead by example. Can their replacements raise their game to make up for this loss?
In such a closely predicted game, the referee always becomes a source of conversation and, more often than not, controversy. Pascal Gauzere is a referee not afraid to make big decisions and wont be intimidated by the home crowd.

All in all I think Scotland may just edge this. Better Half backs and more dangerous weapons in the back line. However, if Gatland can somehow give these Scarlets players the permission to plan open and expansive, which comes natural to them at this stage, then they certainly have the ability.

Scotland by 2

I think the odds for a draw at 20/1 are attractive by the way