Costs of Irish unification.

FrancieBrady · 31-12-2017 02:56PM

Jawgap wrote: »

Harmonisation simply means Merrion Street taking over from Whitehall or the provider of welfare support.

And yes, it is a mess......EY in their recent report forecast that there'd be 144000 jobs created on the island of Ireland in 2018.......139000 in the Republic. (EDIT: correction, those figures cover 2018 and 2019, not just 2018).

They also discussed how the absence of a functioning government was stymieing economic growth. Why? Because NI is so reliant on public funding the absence of a functioning assembly was restricting the flow of money into the economy to the extent that it was strangling economic growth potential.

We're working away back to a decent level of economic performance why would we want to shackle ourselves to such a delinquent entity as NI and carry the funding responsibilities that would entail?

Harmonisation for me means two governments working together to make a success of the process. A process, ( on foot of a majority vote) achieved as smoothly and calmly as possible, that is in everyone's interests as agreed in the GFA.
That will involve aligning tax and welfare structures, health and medical provisions etc etc.
It will not come down to some ludicrious situation where a busload of civil servants arrive to take over and the british civil servants wander off saying Tally Ho.

end of the road · 31-12-2017 03:00PM

Jawgap wrote: »

Harmonisation simply means Merrion Street taking over from Whitehall or the provider of welfare support.

And yes, it is a mess......EY in their recent report forecast that there'd be 144000 jobs created on the island of Ireland in 2018.......139000 in the Republic. (EDIT: correction, those figures cover 2018 and 2019, not just 2018).

They also discussed how the absence of a functioning government was stymieing economic growth. Why? Because NI is so reliant on public funding the absence of a functioning assembly was restricting the flow of money into the economy to the extent that it was strangling economic growth potential.

We're working away back to a decent level of economic performance why would we want to shackle ourselves to such a delinquent entity as NI and carry the funding responsibilities that would entail?

again, you won't have a choice but to reunify ultimately. a ui is coming whether you want it or not and all that can be done now is preparations for it. it is happening.

Carlos Orange · 31-12-2017 03:46PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

How do you feel about unleashing nationalist violence?

Is that going to be an all ireland slogan for both referendums or just the one in Ireland?

murphaph · 31-12-2017 03:57PM

end of the road wrote: »

again, you won't have a choice but to reunify ultimately. a ui is coming whether you want it or not and all that can be done now is preparations for it. it is happening.

It was said it was just around the corner in 1921 as well.

end of the road · 31-12-2017 04:16PM

murphaph wrote: »

It was said it was just around the corner in 1921 as well.

those were different times. belfast is no longer strategically important to the uk like it was back then.

Jawgap · 31-12-2017 04:36PM

end of the road wrote: »

again, you won't have a choice but to reunify ultimately. a ui is coming whether you want it or not and all that can be done now is preparations for it. it is happening.

I'm sure it's only a question of when but at the moment economically and politically the jurisdictions are diverging and as we accelerate towards greater prosperity, NI is stagnating so you'll be asking people to forego future prosperity gains - or even give up some realised prosperity - to fund NI and the re-unification process.......not an easy sell.

And we haven't even discussed the indirect costs of re-unification such as the increased cost of debt for the country when we add on the multi-billion drag on the economy that NI will be for decades, if not generations.

FrancieBrady · 31-12-2017 04:40PM

Jawgap wrote: »

I'm sure it's only a question of when but at the moment economically and politically the jurisdictions are diverging and as we accelerate towards greater prosperity, NI is stagnating so you'll be asking people to forego future prosperity gains - or even give up some realised prosperity - to fund NI and the re-unification process.......not an easy sell.

And we haven't even discussed the indirect costs of re-unification such as the increased cost of debt for the country when we add on the multi-billion drag on the economy that NI will be for decades, if not generations.

I'll be seeing it as asking other Irish people, do they want come along with us. Because that is what is best for us all.

murphaph · 31-12-2017 04:43PM

end of the road wrote: »

those were different times. belfast is no longer strategically important to the uk like it was back then.

And it's not strategically important to the south now.

jm08 · 31-12-2017 04:48PM

murphaph wrote: »

How do you know what's going on in the Dail? Do you go there and sit in the public gallery or watch the news like me in Berlin? I'm not living on Mars lol.

I wasn't referring to what is going on in the Dail. I was referring to what is going on in the street and pubs of Irelaqnd - what the average Joe or Josephine thinks about Northern Ireland, Brexit, DUP, United Ireland.

Brexit is already being regretted. If the vote was held again tomorrow it would be 60/40 against.

Well, they still ignored the warnings about the dire consequences to their economy, labelling it 'Project Fear'.

A cultural Catholic lol. I was baptised Catholic, made my communion and was conferred like most but I have not been to a normal mass in 30 years. I'm not Catholic. In Germany you pay church tax if you want to avail of church facilities so I answered truthfully that I have no religion when I originally moved here. I wonder in Ireland what the actual figure would be if the census form question reduced your tax bill by a couple of percent if you ticked "no confession" ;-)

What is so funny about being a cultural catholic. You got your value system from catholicism. While you might not go to church, you probably still have the same values that your catholic parents gave you.

By the way Germans in the West didn't get a vote on unification. The German basic law always allowed for this. It's not at all certain that West Germany back then would have voted for unification!

Worth noting that Kohl's party that pushed through German reunification won the next general election despite the economic penalties of reunification.

The Irish constitution used to too but since the GFA a referendum is required in the south.

That is because of the Republic renouncing its territorial rights of NI. It was a way of ensuring that the unionists didn't get it all their own way by giving the people of the republic a say in what happens to the Border.

Jawgap · 31-12-2017 04:50PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I'll be seeing it as asking other Irish people, do they want come along with us. Because that is what is best for us all.

It's economically "best" for the taxpayers of the Republic who will end up footing the direct and indirect bill for the journey.

It's an easy trip to make if someone else is paying for the ticket.

jm08 · 31-12-2017 05:00PM

Jawgap wrote: »

Harmonisation simply means Merrion Street taking over from Whitehall or the provider of welfare support.

And yes, it is a mess......EY in their recent report forecast that there'd be 144000 jobs created on the island of Ireland in 2018.......139000 in the Republic. (EDIT: correction, those figures cover 2018 and 2019, not just 2018).

They also discussed how the absence of a functioning government was stymieing economic growth. Why? Because NI is so reliant on public funding the absence of a functioning assembly was restricting the flow of money into the economy to the extent that it was strangling economic growth potential.

We're working away back to a decent level of economic performance why would we want to shackle ourselves to such a delinquent entity as NI and carry the funding responsibilities that would entail?

The Assembly did nothing. The biggest difficulty for NI is that it is unable to compete with either the Republic or the rest of the UK. Its costs are going to be higher because it is part of an island off the coast of Britain and on the island of Ireland it is competing with the Republic's corporate tax rate of 12.5%.

Just another thing - would you expect all exports from NI to the UK to stop in the event of a United Ireland. For the record, even after the Republic left the UK acrimoniously, the UK was still Ireland's biggest export market at the time of both joining the EEC.

jm08 · 31-12-2017 05:04PM

Jawgap wrote: »

It's economically "best" for the taxpayers of the Republic who will end up footing the direct and indirect bill for the journey.

It's an easy trip to make if someone else is paying for the ticket.

Just looked up some costs. The UK spent about 35bn on its armed forces per annum, it intends to spend approx. 80 bn in the next few years reequipping it with a few aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines. NI has to contribute to that.

As for the NHS, NI costs about 5bn per year which would be inline with what the IHS spends in Republic (approx. 15bn per annum).

Sam Russell · 31-12-2017 05:13PM

jm08 wrote: »

Just another thing - would you expect all exports from NI to the UK to stop in the event of a United Ireland. For the record, even after the Republic left the UK acrimoniously, the UK was still Ireland's biggest export market at the time of both joining the EEC.

The reason for the high level of exports from Ireland to the UK before we both joined the EEC (as it then was) was because of the Anglo Irish Free Trade Agreement of 1965. This was of more benefit to UK, but did allow Ireland to reorganise its economy.

If there is a UI, then NI will not be NI, but part of Ireland. Exports will increase for the former NI because of the integration that will naturally occur due to the proximity effect of trade. NI will get growth because of such integration.

It all depends on the details of the deal with the UK, but NI will not inherit any of the UK national debt (it is not in the GFA) and should continue to get a subvention from the UK for at least ten years, and possible longer with a tapering reduction. If the EU ramps up regional aid, then the actual cost to Ireland might be quite benign.

However, unless Brexit bring chaos to the NI economy as a result of disaster in London, then a reunification poll is a long way off.

noodler · 31-12-2017 05:16PM

jm08 wrote: »

Just looked up some costs. The UK spent about 35bn on its armed forces per annum, it intends to spend approx. 80 bn in the next few years reequipping it with a few aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines. NI has to contribute to that.

As for the NHS, NI costs about 5bn per year which would be inline with what the IHS spends in Republic (approx. 15bn per annum).

What are you trying to say?

It would cost roi about 10bn extra a year.

That's the reported net figure. I. E. It already takes account of the ins and outs.

end of the road · 31-12-2017 05:18PM

murphaph wrote: »

And it's not strategically important to the south now.

however it will be in the future.
as part of a united ireland it has a huge chance of international investment and job creation.

Sidey · 31-12-2017 05:21PM

Jawgap wrote: »

Even if everything was hunky-dory, and the economic, social and political landscapes were benign, there would still be huge disruption. For example, the cost of converting accounting, payment and banking systems over to the Euro.....real costs for any and everyone and every organisation, SME, etc involved in handling or processing cash.

Yeah I mean can ye imagine the chaos and disruption and plagues of locusts and rivers of blood that would result from trying to switch from one currency to the Euro. I mean it's unheard of, nowhere in the world has any experience of such a drastic foolhardy and chaotic mad idea. Especially not the Dublin civil service, who haven't ever had to undertake anything of the kind.

Well, not in at least an entire 16 years anyway.

The rest of your post is the usual deranged "all Nordies are genetically designed to be murderous layabouts living in slums on the dole and randomly killing one another" gibberish, and as such is just really rather pathetic, not worth responding to, and says a hell of a lot more about you than it does about Evil Nordies.

FrancieBrady · 31-12-2017 05:23PM

Jawgap wrote: »

It's economically "best" for the taxpayers of the Republic who will end up footing the direct and indirect bill for the journey.

It's an easy trip to make if someone else is paying for the ticket.

Ridiculous argument. Unless you pay for every service you receive. Do you?
No you don't, you contribute and the tax pool makes up the shortfall.
NI will also contribute as well as recieve. It is how it works.
Initially it may be in deficit but if the changeover is rational and organised there is no reason that deficit would not disappear over time.

Can we stop the scaremongering.

noodler · 31-12-2017 05:33PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Ridiculous argument. Unless you pay for every service you receive. Do you?
No you don't, you contribute and the tax pool makes up the shortfall.
NI will also contribute as well as recieve. It is how it works.
Initially it may be in deficit but if the changeover is rational and organised there is no reason that deficit would not disappear over time.

Can we stop the scaremongering.

Ridiculous nonsense. Talking about a massive deficit possibly disappearing, potentially, maybe, somehow.

All the he while we'd be lobbing it onto our national debt.

NI runs at a huge deficit which dublin would have to fill. It's that simple.

Lets keep some basic facts in this.

FrancieBrady · 31-12-2017 05:37PM

noodler wrote: »

Ridiculous nonsense. Talking about a massive deficit possibly disappearing, potentially, maybe, somehow.

All the he while we'd be lobbing it onto our national debt.

NI runs at a huge deficit which dublin would have to fill. It's that simple.

Lets keep some basic facts in this.

And we do not know exactly how that deficit breaks down. What NI actually generates or what savings can be made. Nor do we know what econmic benefits unification of a small island will bring.
It is 'scaremongering' for those reasons.

Sidey · 31-12-2017 05:43PM

noodler wrote: »

What are you trying to say?

It would cost roi about 10bn extra a year.

That's the reported net figure. I. E. It already takes account of the ins and outs.

Except, as has repeatedly been pointed out even on this very thread, it doesn't

The 10bn figure is wildly inaccurate. On the revenue side it only accounts for local rates, PAYE, small NI-only local companies and some VAT. A lot of VAT and corporation taxes for larger UK-wide firms are not included. The expenditure side includes NIs imputed contribution to UK-wide spending like the UK Military, nuclear power subsidies, the upkeep of the Royals, National Trust and national museums, to name just a few categories.

Nobody knows what the subvention actually is, because the UK Treasury refuse to give a complete picture. However given the above it is likely to be more like stg5-6bn than stg10bn. But it suits the die-hard anti-republican types to not have an accurate figure available, so they can claim the subvention is whatever number of bazillions they feel will suit their argument this week.

Sidey · 31-12-2017 05:49PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Can we stop the scaremongering.

Nah, they never will. It's all they've got, as is perfectly clear from the parade of frankly totally mad "objections" they've been trotting out all through this thread. It's really just the online equivalent of standing in the back yard shaking their canes at the moon.

CelticRambler · 31-12-2017 05:55PM

Jawgap wrote: »

... there would still be huge disruption. For example, the cost of converting accounting, payment and banking systems over to the Euro.....real costs for any and everyone and every organisation, SME, etc involved in handling or processing cash.

What mediaeval village do you live in?

All banking and payment processing is done by computers these days, and at most the cost for a small business will be buried in their next software upgrade. I had my own business in the south-eastern UK when the exchange rates for Euro/legacy currencies were fixed. It took one phone call to my software provider to upgrade our till interface so as to be able to accept payments in any Euro-legacy cash that my clients wanted to dispose of.

Every account in NI already has an IBAN, so payments will move on Day UI+1 exactly as they did on UI-1.

Every aspect of re-unification/conversion/harmonisation has already taken place somewhere in Europe in the last twenty or thirty years - many of them in Ireland - so there are plenty of examples upon which to base a transition. And many changes will fit into periodic maintenance and/or review cycles in any case, e.g. changing road-signs to km/h.

Jawgap wrote: »

And yes, it is a mess......EY in their recent report forecast that there'd be 144000 jobs created on the island of Ireland in 2018.......139000 in the Republic. ... They also discussed how the absence of a functioning government was stymieing economic growth. Why? Because NI is so reliant on public funding the absence of a functioning assembly was restricting the flow of money into the economy to the extent that it was strangling economic growth potential.

... and again and again and again: the same wacky justification "NI as part of the UK is an economic mess, so if we dramatically change that situation by taking it out of the UK, nothing will change because ... just because."

Why are you so convinced that the Republic's agencies, whose job-creation efforts are so successful compared to those in other EU countries, will look at six "new counties" post-UI and say "Nah, feck 'em, let's stick with Leitrim"

Sidey · 31-12-2017 05:57PM

noodler wrote: »

All the he while we'd be lobbing it onto our national debt.

You seem to be fiercely concerned altogether with the national debt. Being that this is the case, I'm sure you'll be able to point us in the direction of your similar strenuous objections in the 2007-2011 period when Cowen and Lendahand were saddling the country with 200bn in debt to bail out corrupt banks and Bertie's builder mates, eh?

noodler · 31-12-2017 05:57PM

There is a ****ing subvention, a massive one, quibble about the the accuracy of the estimate all you want but don't muddy the waters of the debate to such an extent that you imply it is insignificant or can be magicked away.

noodler · 31-12-2017 05:58PM

Sidey wrote: »

You seem to be fiercely concerned altogether with the national debt. Being that this is the case, I'm sure you'll be able to point us in the direction of your similar strenuous objections in the 2007-2011 period when Cowen and Lendahand were saddling the country with 200bn in debt to bail out corrupt banks and Bertie's builder mates, eh?

Absolutely ridiculous deflection.

noodler · 31-12-2017 06:01PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And we do not know exactly how that deficit breaks down. What NI actually generates or what savings can be made. Nor do we know what econmic benefits unification of a small island will bring.
It is 'scaremongering' for those reasons.

Wishy washy hopeful nonsense.

jm08 · 31-12-2017 06:07PM

noodler wrote: »

What are you trying to say?

It would cost roi about 10bn extra a year.

That's the reported net figure. I. E. It already takes account of the ins and outs.

The 10 bn is just a guess. It doesn't take into account for the contributions that NI make to the UK budget (such as Military, Monachy etc which would not apply in a united Ireland.

Sidey · 31-12-2017 06:15PM

noodler wrote: »

There is a ****ing subvention, a massive one, quibble about the the accuracy of the estimate all you want but don't muddy the waters of the debate to such an extent that you imply it is insignificant or can be magicked away.

LOL nobody is denying there is under the current system of most revenue and expenditure being set by London, in the interests of the whole UK, with little regard for any specific needs of NIs economy, that there is a subvention. Or that there will need to be a transition period of a few years to adjust the northern economy so that it can function in a more appropriate manner.

You are the person arguing, against all logic and sanity, that because NIs economy is weak under the current system, that it will forever be weak under any system, in perpetuity, forever and ever, amen. That there are no savings and efficiences to be made by removing the duplication of services across the island. That there are no gains to be made in border regions (north and south) by removing the distorting trade, tax and currency effects of that very border. That there are no possible ways to continue downsizing the north's public sector while increasing the private sector (and by the way, you are all vastly, wildly, overblowing the size of the public sector in the north, they way youse are screeching on this thread you'd think we were talking about Soviet Russia FFS - in reality public sector employment is 27% of the total in the north. According to the OECD the average in OECD countries is 21.3%. The Dublin government claims the figure in the south is 19% but the OECD call BS on that one and put it at 24%. Either way we're again not even remotely talking about some huge bigly disparity on the West/East German scale). That everyone in the north is apparently a lazy work-shy dole sponger with an unfortunate propensity to murder and so the north can never work because the people there are inherently insane and incapable. And so on.

Sidey · 31-12-2017 06:17PM

noodler wrote: »

Sidey wrote: »

You seem to be fiercely concerned altogether with the national debt. Being that this is the case, I'm sure you'll be able to point us in the direction of your similar strenuous objections in the 2007-2011 period when Cowen and Lendahand were saddling the country with 200bn in debt to bail out corrupt banks and Bertie's builder mates, eh?

Absolutely ridiculous deflection.

I'll take that as an admission that your burning concern with the national debt is a new-found passion that is mainly triggered by people mentioning a UI then, shall I? :D

blanch152 · 31-12-2017 06:22PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Ridiculous argument. Unless you pay for every service you receive. Do you?
No you don't, you contribute and the tax pool makes up the shortfall.
NI will also contribute as well as recieve. It is how it works.
Initially it may be in deficit but if the changeover is rational and organised there is no reason that deficit would not disappear over time.

Can we stop the scaremongering.

This is simply nonsense with the "tax pool" being the latest incarnation of the magic money tree.

There is a €9 billion subvention to Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK that has to be replaced.

Public service salaries, social welfare rates etc. in the North are lower and will have to be increased. That could be another few billion.

There is no "tax pool" to pay for this, the money will have to be found from Southern taxpayers or Northern taxpayers and from cuts to public service pay and social welfare rates in the South. This is simple maths and simple economics. This will mean that most people in this country will have to make a financial sacrifice for Irish unity.

Costs of Irish unification.

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