Brexit discussion thread III

flaneur · 27-12-2017 11:49PM

Also, what's to stop Europe using any other financial centre? What's special about London?

I mean, other than that it's physically close?

We would have no particular relationship with London that would be any better than Wall Street or Hong Kong, so why not just use those for whatever services may take a while to develop in EU centres?
Surely we would just shop around for whatever financial centre is best value or most useful. London would no longer be anything special.

London would be outside the EU, at best like Zurich but more likely about as close as Wall Street.

Also, the UK would have shown itself to be quite openly hostile to the EU and the concept of the EU.

One could also arrogantly and grossly over estimate the uniqueness and importance of London as a financial centre to the EU.

CelticRambler · 28-12-2017 12:32AM

It might be worth remembering that "London" knew right well what the stakes were, and voted to remain (despite the DUP's London-only wrap-around newspaper advert encouraging them to do otherwise :pac: ) It's not the City's fault that Home Counties xenophobes are driving the Big Red Bus towards the cliff.

Enzokk · 28-12-2017 10:20AM

So it seems according to this tweet and article that David Davis is being sidelined and, and the tweet points out, an un-elected bureaucrat is leading the negotiations with the EU. This person also meets directly with Theresa May so its not just a case of the civil servants doing the prep work, this is someone meeting the chief negotiators of the EU and then meeting the PM. David Davis seems to be the face of Brexit only.

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/946308176126922752

Jim2007 · 28-12-2017 11:05AM

flaneur wrote: »

London would be outside the EU, at best like Zurich but more likely about as close as Wall Street.

Except that Zurich is not even in that game. Zurich is mainly Asset Management and Wealth Management at this stage. And it is all about selling into Switzerland rather than the other way around - it is very easy for EU institutions to offer their products in Switzerland, so a Swiss asset manager can offer a very wide range of products to their clients.

At this stage bank secrecy is more or less restricted to Swiss citizens, so things have changed dramatically over say the past 10 years or so. Most of the major Swiss banks now have subsidiaries in Dublin, Luxembourg, Frankfurt, Milan etc.. who concentrate mainly on developing investment products for sale back into the Swiss market. Which are in turn picked up by Swiss asset managers working for clients such as the Singapore Sovereign Fund etc...

steddyeddy · 28-12-2017 01:01PM

Macron will make Britain pay for customs posts at Calais post Brexit it seems. It all adds up to a very costly mistake.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5223024/emmanuel-macron-will-force-britain-to-pay-for-the-cost-of-setting-up-customs-posts-at-calais-after-brexit/

flaneur · 28-12-2017 01:05PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Macron will make Britain pay for customs posts at Calais post Brexit it seems. It all adds up to a very costly mistake.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5223024/emmanuel-macron-will-force-britain-to-pay-for-the-cost-of-setting-up-customs-posts-at-calais-after-brexit/

I just see rant, rant, francophobia, jingoism!

Reality: "He said the bill should be shared between France, the UK and other European countries, adding that Britain has a duty to “provide some funding”."

Basically France asked for a reasonable contribution from the UK and other EU countries and the Sun is throwing a strop.

Leroy42 · 28-12-2017 01:08PM

flaneur wrote: »

I just see rant, rant, francophobia, jingoism!

Reality is : "He said the bill should be shared between France, the UK and other European countries, adding that Britain has a duty to “provide some funding”."

Why though? Surely the onus is on France to secure their own border, and Uk to secure theirs. I understand that the camp is a way to stop them travelling to UK in the 1st place but surely the French can't simply let undocumented leave without valid checks.

I know the people are leaving (or at least trying to) and the camp was set up to effectively keep them away from the UK, but I'm just questioning what rights France have to demand payment for what is, IMO, simply adhering to international law

flaneur · 28-12-2017 01:10PM

Because the UK has an agreement with France to put UK border controls on French territory to avoid having a holding area and queues in Britian.

If you want France to facilitate that, you need to pay.

Why would France spend millions and millions of Euro doing this for the UK?

France could very reasonably just end that agreement and let the UK deal with its own borders in the UK.

Leroy42 · 28-12-2017 01:12PM

Why do they do it now? Part of it, I think, is that they do hold a certain responsibility to not simply allow undocumented to enter and then leave the country.

flaneur · 28-12-2017 01:14PM

They do it now because of a bilateral agreement. Brexit will massively increase the space and work required on the French side.

This could involve extra security, acquiring farm land to use for holding area as and border facilities and so on.

It's not a minor undertaking and the UK media and political commentary seems to think you can just snap your fingers and have everything work.

You could be talking about vastly more complex screening of trucks and huge queues both directions.

You're talking about a potentially huge customs operation dealing with tax and excise and so on.

This article is basically hot air. The French have made a very reasonable request that the UK and other European countries foot some of the bill for this. It's not an exclusively French issue. It's a common EU border and the UK has caused a huge extra complication and should foot a significant proportion of the bill.

An Ciarraioch · 28-12-2017 01:18PM

The SNP propose a Westminster conference on January 8th to consolidate a Soft Brexit alliance, but it seems unlikely that Labour will sign up:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/28/snp-invites-opposition-leaders-cross-party-summit-fight-hard-brexit

steddyeddy · 28-12-2017 01:26PM

What will Brexit Britain look like in the worst case scenario?

Peregrinus · 28-12-2017 01:27PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Why do they do it now? Part of it, I think, is that they do hold a certain responsibility to not simply allow undocumented to enter and then leave the country.

There’s no general duty in international law under which a country has on obligation to others to stop people leaving. Countries are not prisons, and stopping people from leaving is generally considered the mark of a pretty odious tyranny.

Plus, both France and the UK are signatories to the Refugee Convention. People who wish to seek protection in the UK have a right to seek it and France has a right not to impede that. If the UK doesn’t maintain a system whereby people in France can apply for protection, I doubt that France can stop them leaving for the UK to apply there.

flaneur · 28-12-2017 01:35PM

The current situation only dates back to the early 2000s where they agreed "Juxtaposed controls"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juxtaposed_controls

That's been a hugely contentious issue in French politics because it created "the jungle" situation, the ending of which is a major policy of Marine Le Pen. It's a very serious political issue in France and there's no way they're going to allow it to become even more of an unfair burden.

France could, quite reasonably, end or renegotiate the Treaty of Le Touquet (2003) because of changes due to Brexit.

Effectively, because the UK can push the consequences of its immigration and customs policies into France, they don't have to deal with them locally and there's no political pressure.

Out of sight, out of kind and all that.

steddyeddy · 28-12-2017 02:10PM

Good news as Goldman Sachs chooses Dublin as base for its European asset management unit.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/7016bc9a-e34b-11e7-97e2-916d4fbac0da

Capt'n Midnight · 28-12-2017 02:22PM

flaneur wrote: »

Because the UK has an agreement with France to put UK border controls on French territory to avoid having a holding area and queues in Britian.

If you want France to facilitate that, you need to pay.

Why would France spend millions and millions of Euro doing this for the UK?

France could very reasonably just end that agreement and let the UK deal with its own borders in the UK.

The lovely bit for the UK is that they simply don't have enough land for existing queues. White cliffs of Dover and all that.

https://www.dfdsseaways.co.uk/customer-service/dover-dunkirk/dover-travel-disruption

Operation stack is a procedure that uses parts of the M20 to queue up to 3,00 heavy goods vehicles (HGV's) travelling towards the continent, to avoid gridlock on Kent's roads. It is implemented whenever there is an urgent need to inhibit the flow of freight traffic to the Port of Dover or Channel Tunnel due to capacity restraints.

And when that's full - If junction 8 to junction 11 reaches capacity, Highways England will use Manston airfield to park Port of Dover freight.

Same in Wales except the volume of traffic is now much higher than the last time there were controls. And land ain't cheap in Dublin Port (it's all artificial) or Dun Laoghaire.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-41497922

"Since we last had borders 25 years ago, we're dealing with a 700% increase in the number of lorries. To deal with those huge volumes [with controls], it's hard to imagine how we'd cope; we'd adapt but that's the scale of it.

"We're hoping there will be an e-solution for these borders because the flow of traffic through this port is 24/7. For example, last night 400 lorries came off two ferries in 25 minutes and were on to the A55 and onto the UK network."

For stuff that's not time critical there's this
https://afloat.ie/port-news/dublin-port/item/37536-world-s-largest-ro-ro-ferry-to-be-introduced-on-dublin-routes-linking-mainland-europe

the giant 234m ro-ro freight ferry M.V. Celine with a capacity of 8,000 lane meters on the Ireland-Belgium route.

But for time critical stuff like fresh food shipping via the UK is the preferred route, unless the ports get log jammed ,in which case everyone looses as the product isn't worth as much.
https://www.politico.eu/article/cargo-food-production-producers-brexit-burns-irelands-british-bridge-to-eu-markets/

Jim2007 · 28-12-2017 03:19PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Why do they do it now? Part of it, I think, is that they do hold a certain responsibility to not simply allow undocumented to enter and then leave the country.

Not at all there is no such responsibility, it was a case of one member state accommodating any other. That will die as a result of A50 and it will become an EU issue as France alone can no longer enter into such an agreement with a third country.

lawred2 · 28-12-2017 04:04PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Why do they do it now? Part of it, I think, is that they do hold a certain responsibility to not simply allow undocumented to enter and then leave the country.

Why should it be their responsibility to restrict the flow of undocumented out of the EU?

flatty · 28-12-2017 04:11PM

I'm, unfortunately for now a UK based taxpayer (hopefully not for much longer)
As a UK based taxpayer however, what macron is suggesting sounds eminently fair and sensible, unless I'm missing something.

murphaph · 28-12-2017 04:11PM

lawred2 wrote: »

Why should it be their responsibility to restrict the flow of undocumented out of the EU?

It is their responsibility to check passengers departing the Schengen zone and record their departure but France has no obligation to go beyond that.

They've just been helping the UK out with the current arrangements.

I presume however that the safety of ships at sea and of channel tunnel trains is still paramount and allowing illegal migrants uncontrolled access to both poses distinct safety risks I would have thought.

Leroy42 · 28-12-2017 04:35PM

lawred2 wrote: »

Why should it be their responsibility to restrict the flow of undocumented out of the EU?

murphaph wrote: »

It is their responsibility to check passengers departing the Schengen zone and record their departure but France has no obligation to go beyond that.

They've just been helping the UK out with the current arrangements.

I presume however that the safety of ships at sea and of channel tunnel trains is still paramount and allowing illegal migrants uncontrolled access to both poses distinct safety risks I would have thought.

I just thought it might have been, I don't know, but based on the fact that it is the airlines job to check passengers before departing etc.

I know this issue was brought up around the time and it was passed off pretty quickly. If, as has been pointed out, France has no responsibility, why is Macron even appearing to be willing to continue on with this? Surely it would help him to rid Calais of this issue (I am talking politically not morally here).

lawred2 · 28-12-2017 04:44PM

flatty wrote: »

I'm, unfortunately for now a UK based taxpayer (hopefully not for much longer)
As a UK based taxpayer however, what macron is suggesting sounds eminently fair and sensible, unless I'm missing something.

Jingoism

mickoneill31 · 28-12-2017 04:54PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I just thought it might have been, I don't know, but based on the fact that it is the airlines job to check passengers before departing etc.

If you get turned around at your arrival airport the airline that took you in has to take you back.

flaneur · 28-12-2017 07:10PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The lovely bit for the UK is that they simply don't have enough land for existing queues. White cliffs of Dover and all that.

https://www.dfdsseaways.co.uk/customer-service/dover-dunkirk/dover-travel-disruptionAnd when that's full - If junction 8 to junction 11 reaches capacity, Highways England will use Manston airfield to park Port of Dover freight.

Same in Wales except the volume of traffic is now much higher than the last time there were controls. And land ain't cheap in Dublin Port (it's all artificial) or Dun Laoghaire.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-41497922

For stuff that's not time critical there's this
https://afloat.ie/port-news/dublin-port/item/37536-world-s-largest-ro-ro-ferry-to-be-introduced-on-dublin-routes-linking-mainland-europe

But for time critical stuff like fresh food shipping via the UK is the preferred route, unless the ports get log jammed ,in which case everyone looses as the product isn't worth as much.
https://www.politico.eu/article/cargo-food-production-producers-brexit-burns-irelands-british-bridge-to-eu-markets/

It's only 12 to 14 hours from Cork to Rosscoff. We just need to improve the ro-ro facilities on the south coast and in Roscoff and/or Brest

Cherbourg is actually way too far east for Irish traffic.

A small fleet of decent ships and that's sorted.

First Up · 28-12-2017 07:13PM

flaneur wrote: »

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The lovely bit for the UK is that they simply don't have enough land for existing queues. White cliffs of Dover and all that.

https://www.dfdsseaways.co.uk/customer-service/dover-dunkirk/dover-travel-disruptionAnd when that's full - If junction 8 to junction 11 reaches capacity, Highways England will use Manston airfield to park Port of Dover freight.

Same in Wales except the volume of traffic is now much higher than the last time there were controls. And land ain't cheap in Dublin Port (it's all artificial) or Dun Laoghaire.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-41497922

For stuff that's not time critical there's this
https://afloat.ie/port-news/dublin-port/item/37536-world-s-largest-ro-ro-ferry-to-be-introduced-on-dublin-routes-linking-mainland-europe

But for time critical stuff like fresh food shipping via the UK is the preferred route, unless the ports get log jammed ,in which case everyone looses as the product isn't worth as much.
https://www.politico.eu/article/cargo-food-production-producers-brexit-burns-irelands-british-bridge-to-eu-markets/

It's only 12 to 14 hours from Cork to Rosscoff. We just need to improve the ro-ro facilities on the south coast and in Roscoff and/or L'Harve.

Cherbourg is actually way too far east for Irish traffic.

Le Havre is further east than Cherbourg.

mickmac76 · 28-12-2017 07:16PM

If we end up with a hard border in Ireland due to Brexit would the EU be willing to or required to help us pay for some of the costs of additional border posts between us and the North? After all we got rid of them due to the single market and couldn't foresee ever needing them again and they will be required to protect the integrity of the EU single market if the UK crashes out without a deal. Also could EU funds be requested to improve our ports if additional checking is required for goods coming from or going to the UK?

murphaph · 28-12-2017 07:53PM

mickmac76 wrote: »

If we end up with a hard border in Ireland due to Brexit would the EU be willing to or required to help us pay for some of the costs of additional border posts between us and the North? After all we got rid of them due to the single market and couldn't foresee ever needing them again and they will be required to protect the integrity of the EU single market if the UK crashes out without a deal. Also could EU funds be requested to improve our ports if additional checking is required for goods coming from or going to the UK?

I would say yes to all these but hopefully we will need none of them.

flaneur · 28-12-2017 08:00PM

First Up wrote: »

Le Havre is further east than Cherbourg.

I actually meant Brest. Half asleep.

There are very good possibilities of connecting onwards from Breton ports either by rail or road and if the business is there EU Brexit divorce funds could help get some facilities in at both ends.

We need to be looking at alternatives to going through the UK. Even from an environmental point of view, it might reduce CO2 emissions if done right.

flaneur · 28-12-2017 08:04PM

murphaph wrote: »

I would say yes to all these but hopefully we will need none of them.

Yes they most likely would - it falls under Frontex’s remit.

Sam Russell · 28-12-2017 08:10PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The lovely bit for the UK is that they simply don't have enough land for existing queues. White cliffs of Dover and all that.

https://www.dfdsseaways.co.uk/customer-service/dover-dunkirk/dover-travel-disruptionAnd when that's full - If junction 8 to junction 11 reaches capacity, Highways England will use Manston airfield to park Port of Dover freight.

Same in Wales except the volume of traffic is now much higher than the last time there were controls. And land ain't cheap in Dublin Port (it's all artificial) or Dun Laoghaire.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-41497922

For stuff that's not time critical there's this
https://afloat.ie/port-news/dublin-port/item/37536-world-s-largest-ro-ro-ferry-to-be-introduced-on-dublin-routes-linking-mainland-europe

But for time critical stuff like fresh food shipping via the UK is the preferred route, unless the ports get log jammed ,in which case everyone looses as the product isn't worth as much.
https://www.politico.eu/article/cargo-food-production-producers-brexit-burns-irelands-british-bridge-to-eu-markets/

One of the advantages of missing out the UK is the total absence of any customs checks (and therefor delay).

If the difference of say Athlone to Paris was 10 hrs by going the direct sea route, it would be tolerable. Add the other advantage of not requiring a driver to go from Holyhead to Dover, or not even having a driver on board the vessel at all, the the additional cost would be minimal. Sean can deliver the truck to Rosslare and Pierre can pick it up, having dropped off the return load onto the ferry.

Brexit discussion thread III

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