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Brexit discussion thread II

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Comments

  • #9102
    First Up
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,823 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    devnull wrote:
    Notable that the DUP specifically suggested that things have got worse since LV has been Taioseach.

    "Worse" being open to interpretation of course.


  • #9103
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 15,213 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    devnull wrote: »
    Much the same as he said earlier here

    Notable that the DUP specifically suggested that things have got worse since LV has been Taioseach.

    They also claimed they had strong support from both LAB and CON.

    I do not know about Varadkar, but Coveney talking last week about a united Ireland surely didn`t help.


  • #9104
    Sethanon
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 17 ✭Sethanon


    J Mysterio wrote: »
    If a win is potentially destroying the UK for a few generations... looks like she won big.

    Destroying the UK? May wasn't the one who agreed to the referendum in the first place. And loosing NI would be a big benefit for the UK. it is a cash grubbling black hole.

    As for the mainland UK. Honestly some rural areas might suffer compared to now but most of the UK will be fine if not excel from Brexit. Unlike our government the UK's actually does a ok job of looking after its people in general.
    England will be fine after brecit and we are deluding ourselves to think otherwise (but then rte does pedal brexit doom as much as it can so no wonder we think it is bad for them too). Hell the company I work for has seen its profits go through the roof since brexit and the weaker sterling. The honest truth is brexit is bad for Ireland and will not have much affect on the UK in the long run. Our media is the one panicing because we are the ones who are fecked.


  • #9105
    Jayop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,388 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    I'll ask again, what Brexit did people actually vote for?

    If I recall correctly, they were never asked which option they wanted so to claim that anyone voted for a hard brexit is nonsense.

    How do you know that people didn't just want to leave the EU but keep all other things the same?

    They wanted to "take back control and stop immigration". If they stay in the SM and CU then not only will they do neither of those they'll actually have no input into the regulations that they will have to follow.

    I'd argue that the majority who voted leave did so because either...

    A) they're bitter little Englanders who never wanted to be in the EU in the first place.

    B) They voted leave as a protest vote never believing that it would pass

    C) this is likely the biggest group. They hadn't a clue what they were voting for but swallowed the crap their tabloid press was feeding them.


  • #9106
    listermint
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,105 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Sethanon wrote: »
    Destroying the UK? May wasn't the one who agreed to the referendum in the first place. And loosing NI would be a big benefit for the UK. it is a cash grubbling black hole.

    As for the mainland UK. Honestly some rural areas might suffer compared to now but most of the UK will be fine if not excel from Brexit. Unlike our government the UK's actually does a ok job of looking after its people in general.
    England will be fine after brecit and we are deluding ourselves to think otherwise (but then rte does pedal brexit doom as much as it can so no wonder we think it is bad for them too). Hell the company I work for has seen its profits go through the roof since brexit and the weaker sterling. The honest truth is brexit is bad for Ireland and will not have much affect on the UK in the long run. Our media is the one panicing because we are the ones who are fecked.

    Your analysis goes against all the facts to date.

    Which begs the question why one should take this analysis seriously.


  • #9107
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,972 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    charlie14 wrote: »
    I do not know about Varadkar, but Coveney talking last week about a united Ireland surely didn`t help.

    The DUP paying lipservice again.
    On the one hand they say that the aspiration to a united Ireland is fine and then on the other throwing the toys out of the pram whenever anyone mentions it.

    The 'united Ireland' stuff is just a crutch for them to play to their crowd.


  • #9108
    Jayop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,388 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    charlie14 wrote: »
    I do not know about Varadkar, but Coveney talking last week about a united Ireland surely didn`t help.

    Why shouldn't he? They're free to talk about their aspirations of remaining in the UK constantly. Wanting a UI in the future is a perfectly legitimate wish and one enshrined in the GFA which the DUP are suddenly concerned about.


  • #9109
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,460 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Sethanon wrote: »
    Destroying the UK? May wasn't the one who agreed to the referendum in the first place. And loosing NI would be a big benefit for the UK. it is a cash grubbling black hole.

    As for the mainland UK. Honestly some rural areas might suffer compared to now but most of the UK will be fine if not excel from Brexit. Unlike our government the UK's actually does a ok job of looking after its people in general.
    England will be fine after brecit and we are deluding ourselves to think otherwise (but then rte does pedal brexit doom as much as it can so no wonder we think it is bad for them too). Hell the company I work for has seen its profits go through the roof since brexit and the weaker sterling. The honest truth is brexit is bad for Ireland and will not have much affect on the UK in the long run. Our media is the one panicing because we are the ones who are fecked.

    lol

    Firstly, Brexit hasn't happened yet.

    Secondly, does this company export to the EU?

    NET Exporters invariably derive a benefit from a currency devaluation.


  • #9110
    swampgas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,579 ✭✭✭swampgas


    Jayop wrote: »
    It really is one time that a unity government type solution needs to be found and it's hard to believe that after almost two years they haven't realised this. Should cons and lab come up with a proper detailed plan they can both agree to then they would be significantly more powerful in the negotiations. Surely this is so important that party political crap could be parked for a year or two. It's mental.

    I don't think the danger feels real enough or near enough for many of the MPs yet. Too many of them are hoping somebody else will fix it so they don't have to make any embarrasing U-turns. And some of them really don't understand what Brexit really means.

    If this chaos drags into next year, I expect businesses will ramp up the pressure considerably. I'm surprised they haven't been more vocal to be honest.

    My money is still on chaotic hard Brexit though.


  • #9111
    Leroy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,755 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    By the same token, what does that even mean? The two are mutually exclusive.

    What? They leave the confines of the EU but retain the free movement etc in a manner like Norway etc

    Many brexiteers stated during the campaign that leaving the SM was never going to part of the plan, just to leave the EU. You can bet that many people voted on the believe that leaving the EU was just that, leaving the club, but continue to have the benefits.

    For people to now claim that one is either a remainer or a hard brexit is nothing but an attempt to make the case for a hard brexit seem more democratic


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  • #9112
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 15,213 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    The DUP paying lipservice again.
    On the one hand they say that the aspiration to a united Ireland is fine and then on the other throwing the toys out of the pram whenever anyone mentions it.

    The 'united Ireland' stuff is just a crutch for them to play to their crowd.

    Totally agree, but Coveney as Minister for Foreign Affairs talking last week in the middle of these negotiations off a united Ireland, was foolhardy and only provided the DUP with more petrol too throw on the fire.


  • #9113
    Sethanon
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 17 ✭Sethanon


    listermint wrote: »
    Your analysis goes against all the facts to date.

    Which begs the question why one should take this analysis seriously.

    Which facts are these? or are you basing this of the doom pedaling?

    I simply base mine on what I have seen in my own experience living and working there. Now I do work in the automation industry, so what I am looking at is product manufacturers and factories in that analysis (they are booming in the uk at the minute and its in no small part to the weaker sterling and exports. the EU would need to impose a 83% tariff for my company not to make a profit on exports after brexit)

    My wife did work for google while we lived in england, and they were not concerned at all by brexit. but they do have headquarters here so that is probably why.

    As I say we can kid ourselves all we like, England will be fine. It is us around the edges who will suffer not them. The likes of NI mean nothing to England and they would gladly drop it if they could
    lawred2 wrote: »
    lol

    Firstly, Brexit hasn't happened yet.

    Secondly, does this company export to the EU?

    NET Exporters invariably derive a benefit from a currency devaluation.

    Around 30-35% goes to EU. 10-15% global. rest is internal.
    What effect do people actually think it will have on England? its the rest that suffers. Mainland EU and England itself will not


  • #9114
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 15,213 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Jayop wrote: »
    Why shouldn't he? They're free to talk about their aspirations of remaining in the UK constantly. Wanting a UI in the future is a perfectly legitimate wish and one enshrined in the GFA which the DUP are suddenly concerned about.

    I would have thought being Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade would involve at least a bit of diplomacy.
    To go talking about a United Ireland in the middle of discussions on avoiding a hard border certainly wasn`t very diplomatic imo.


  • #9115
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    According to the press, Foster is 'too busy' to meet with May today.
    Perhaps Stormont has suddenly re-opened, and they're finally attempting to reduce the common 5yr+ NHS waiting list backlog?

    When 0.6% of the UK gov' seat holders are blocking a brexit deal,
    this can only spell one thing: PM Corbyn on the way before too long.

    Labour is currently fav to take the most seats in any next election.


  • #9116
    Leroy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,755 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Sethanon wrote: »
    Which facts are these? or are you basing this of the doom pedaling?

    I simply base mine on what I have seen in my own experience living and working there. Now I do work in the automation industry, so what I am looking at is product manufacturers and factories in that analysis (they are booming in the uk at the minute and its in no small part to the weaker sterling and exports. the EU would need to impose a 83% tariff for my company not to make a profit on exports after brexit)

    My wife did work for google while we lived in england, and they were not concerned at all by brexit. but they do have headquarters here so that is probably why.

    As I say we can kid ourselves all we like, England will be fine. It is us around the edges who will suffer not them. The likes of NI mean nothing to England and they would gladly drop it if they could

    Growth has already been reduced by 0.4% over the ext five years. Analysis by economists has valued the cost of loss of GDP since the vote at around £20bn.

    Brexit admin costs already at £700m , with a further £3bn set aside.

    There is currently no works undertaken on building the expanding port facilities needed due to increased customs. I doubt any costs have been considered in terms of the NI border.

    These are all either facts, or extrapolation based on facts. What you have is some anecdotal evidence.

    There is still the likely fall off in trade with the EU as it is pretty evident that companies will opt for custom free goods rather than the hassle and potential holdups from the UK (not all of course but it will have some effect).

    There is also the possibility of losing out some very high value COL jobs. The car manufacturers have also indicated that the costs of a customs regime will call into question their continued investment.

    So, please enlighten us with some of the expected upturns which will balance and go beyond these benefits


  • #9117
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,460 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Romeo Flabby Welfare wrote: »
    According to the press, Foster is 'too busy' to meet with May today.
    Perhaps Stormont has suddenly re-opened, and they're finally attempting to reduce the common 5yr+ NHS waiting list backlog?

    When 0.6% of the UK gov' seat holders are blocking a brexit deal,
    this can only spell one thing: PM Corbyn on the way before too long.

    They are also too busy to actually fulfill their democratic responsibilities in the Northern Assembly.


  • #9118
    First Up
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,823 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    Sethanon wrote:
    I simply base mine on what I have seen in my own experience living and working there. Now I do work in the automation industry, so what I am looking at is product manufacturers and factories in that analysis (they are booming in the uk at the minute and its in no small part to the weaker sterling and exports. the EU would need to impose a 83% tariff for my company not to make a profit on exports after brexit)

    Where does your company sit in the supply chain? Do you import components or operate a JIT manufacturing process? What delivery schedule do your EU customers require?

    There is more to the SM than tarrifs.


  • #9119
    BoatMad
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    Sethanon wrote: »
    Which facts are these? or are you basing this of the doom pedaling?

    I simply base mine on what I have seen in my own experience living and working there. Now I do work in the automation industry, so what I am looking at is product manufacturers and factories in that analysis (they are booming in the uk at the minute and its in no small part to the weaker sterling and exports. the EU would need to impose a 83% tariff for my company not to make a profit on exports after brexit)

    My wife did work for google while we lived in england, and they were not concerned at all by brexit. but they do have headquarters here so that is probably why.

    As I say we can kid ourselves all we like, England will be fine. It is us around the edges who will suffer not them. The likes of NI mean nothing to England and they would gladly drop it if they could



    Around 30-35% goes to EU. 10-15% global. rest is internal.
    What effect do people actually think it will have on England? its the rest that suffers. Mainland EU and England itself will not


    The effect of brexit will take several years to filter through as there is an expected 2 or maybe 3 year transition period alone

    Simply using the here and now is ridiculous , The UK is benefiting from lower sterling while retaining all the advantages of being in the EU

    that will change


  • #9120
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    lawred2 wrote: »
    They are also too busy to actually fulfill their democratic responsibilities in the Northern Assembly.

    But not the majority of the population of NI, who don't want Brexit, or any type of hard border.

    There's still plenty of potholes, health waiting lists and street lights that need fixing last time I visited.

    My bet is that she has her phone turned off today. And that a Labour government will materilse before too long, to clean up this mess.


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  • #9121
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,972 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    charlie14 wrote: »
    I would have thought being Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade would involve at least a bit of diplomacy.
    To go talking about a United Ireland in the middle of discussions on avoiding a hard border certainly wasn`t very diplomatic imo.

    Somebody needs to tell the DUP again and again that they need to get over our aspirations and themselves. They are protected by the GFA just as much as anybody else.
    Maybe then we could get a realistic plan for the future of the island.


  • #9122
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,690 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    David Davis seems to have bought into the Scottish Conservatives idea of regulatory alignment for the whole of the UK, on the basis that "regulatory alignment" doesn't mean the UK mirroring the EU rules; it means the UK adopting rules which produce outcomes that mirror the outcomes of the EU rules.

    We could live with that.


  • #9123
    Sethanon
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 17 ✭Sethanon


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    Growth has already been reduced by 0.4% over the ext five years. Analysis by economists has valued the cost of loss of GDP since the vote at around £20bn.

    0.4% is a small hit to take over 5 years tbh. Leaving will always cause issues, but as I say it won't be England that suffers, it will push that onto the rest of the UK because it can.
    Leroy42 wrote: »
    Brexit admin costs already at £700m , with a further £3bn set aside.
    3bn is small in the scheme of the UKs affairs, as a once of expenditure this is completely irrelevant to them. Considering they spend 800bn a year. 3 will not phase them
    Leroy42 wrote: »
    There is currently no works undertaken on building the expanding port facilities needed due to increased customs. I doubt any costs have been considered in terms of the NI border.
    Realistically this is a non issue, easily resolved. Remember all main hubs in the UK have customs facilities as they actually have imports from outside of the EU!
    I dont think the UK see the NI border as an issue, They will happily put it in the sea. A hard border on land is their last resort.
    Leroy42 wrote: »
    These are all either facts, or extrapolation based on facts. What you have is some anecdotal evidence.


    There is still the likely fall off in trade with the EU as it is pretty evident that companies will opt for custom free goods rather than the hassle and potential holdups from the UK (not all of course but it will have some effect).

    This is not the case at all, when it comes to goods, there is no delay in moving them through the EU. Only a tariff. As all UK companies already comply with the regulations and ISO they will have an even easier time moving products.
    We do not have trade deals with most Asian countries yet we have their products here in abundance. its simply a tariff implied.
    Leroy42 wrote: »
    There is also the possibility of losing out some very high value COL jobs. The car manufacturers have also indicated that the costs of a customs regime will call into question their continued investment.

    Some will be lost, but if they are it will be to cheaper non EU countries most likely. I deal with companies like Jaguar and Ford on a weekly basis and they will not leave. They will huff and puff until they convince the government to give them money, thats all they are after.
    Simply put, the logistics of a car manufacturer are finely tuned and take years, they do not hold stock, items arrive constantly to be delivered directly to the live line. This is the logistical precision they use. The only way these companies would leave england is if the EU puts a massive tariff on UK exports. (which is unlikely for the car industry especially as they are lobbying hard in germany for a soft brexit. and car manufacturers have a massive pull, they are the forefront of all manufacturing advancement after all.)

    So yeah its not going to be perfect at all. but England will be fine in the long run. its all of us on the fringe that will suffer because like it or not, we rely on those bollaxs


  • #9124
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,567 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Interesting piece in the Spectator arguing for a second referendum where the public choose between accepting Theresa May's deal, leaving on WTO terms or annulling the result of the 2016 referendum using the single transferable vote to indicate up to 2 preferences. The author argues for this on the basis that May is disappointing pro-Brexit Tories and pro-Remain Tories alike by leaving on a half-baked basis.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #9125
    Sethanon
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 17 ✭Sethanon


    First Up wrote: »
    Where does your company sit in the supply chain? Do you import components or operate a JIT manufacturing process? What delivery schedule do your EU customers require?

    There is more to the SM than tarrifs.

    We are system builders, we make the machines. so the jit is not relevant for us. Its our customers who worry about that.
    As I say when it comes to moving items the tariff is the real barrier not the logistics. Especially when UK manufacturers already comply with all eu regulations.
    But then that is the point of the tariff, to force non EU companies to be non competitive in pricing. Depending on the trade agreement the UK can be screwed or not. But I think they will get their trade agreement. Especially with the car manufacturers and big guns like P&G, Coty and Unilever lobbying for it


  • #9126
    danganabu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 ✭✭✭danganabu


    Sethanon wrote: »
    Destroying the UK? May wasn't the one who agreed to the referendum in the first place. And loosing NI would be a big benefit for the UK. it is a cash grubbling black hole.

    As for the mainland UK. Honestly some rural areas might suffer compared to now but most of the UK will be fine if not excel from Brexit. Unlike our government the UK's actually does a ok job of looking after its people in general.
    England will be fine after brecit and we are deluding ourselves to think otherwise (but then rte does pedal brexit doom as much as it can so no wonder we think it is bad for them too). Hell the company I work for has seen its profits go through the roof since brexit and the weaker sterling. The honest truth is brexit is bad for Ireland and will not have much affect on the UK in the long run. Our media is the one panicing because we are the ones who are fecked.
    Sethanon wrote: »

    Realistically this is a non issue, easily resolved. Remember all main hubs in the UK have customs facilities as they actually have imports from outside of the EU!

    I really don't know whether to laugh or cry, this is the kind or insular, uninformed, short sighted, myopic viewpoint that gave us the comical referendum result in the first place.


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  • #9127
    solodeogloria
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,739 ✭✭✭solodeogloria


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    David Davis seems to have bought into the Scottish Conservatives idea of regulatory alignment for the whole of the UK, on the basis that "regulatory alignment" doesn't mean the UK mirroring the EU rules; it means the UK adopting rules which produce outcomes that mirror the outcomes of the EU rules.

    We could live with that.

    Good afternoon!

    From the sounds of it it looks like mirroring rules rather than formal single market and customs union membership. This would be a similar approach to options mentioned in the Government's position paper.

    If that's what they are proposing it isn't ideal but it is better than formal membership in terms of the freedoms gained.

    It seems like freedom of movement wouldn't be required, nor would declining to do free trade deals with other countries but they would be constrained in areas where the UK is mirroring regulations.

    Much thanks,
    solodeogloria


  • #9128
    First Up
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,823 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    Sethanon wrote:
    This is not the case at all, when it comes to goods, there is no delay in moving them through the EU. Only a tariff. As all UK companies already comply with the regulations and ISO they will have an even easier time moving products. We do not have trade deals with most Asian countries yet we have their products here in abundance. its simply a tariff implied.

    Eh?
    There is no tariff on goods moving within the SM, and no delays for inspection or paperwork. That will change after Brexit because even if they comply with standards, that will have to be checked every time. In effect, goods from the UK will join the queue at EU ports with goods coming from Asia and elsewhere.

    The EU has trade "deals" with just about every Asian country and all imports are processed at pointnof entry to the EU, after which they move freely within the SM.

    It affects some products and industries more than others but if your business operates in time-sensitive and complex supply chains, post-Brexit border delays are a potential disaster


  • #9129
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,567 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Sethanon wrote: »
    We are system builders, we make the machines. so the jit is not relevant for us. Its our customers who worry about that.
    As I say when it comes to moving items the tariff is the real barrier not the logistics. Especially when UK manufacturers already comply with all eu regulations.
    But then that is the point of the tariff, to force non EU companies to be non competitive in pricing. Depending on the trade agreement the UK can be screwed or not. But I think they will get their trade agreement. Especially with the car manufacturers and big guns like P&G, Coty and Unilever lobbying for it

    This seems unlikely to me. Many manufacturers in the UK operate on a just-in-time basis to save money which means that they keep the bare minimum of materials and components, shipping them in from the continent when needed. And then there is the question of the tens of thousands of lorries passing through places like Dover every day. The infrastructure simply is not there to check them. It seems to me that tariffs are just the tip of the iceberg.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #9130
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,567 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Mod: This thread is nearing the 10,000 post limit. We're preparing a new thread now. Please bear with us.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



This discussion has been closed.
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