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Brexit discussion thread II

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  • #9092
    charlie14
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,584 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    devnull wrote: »
    Paterson has just made remarks saying that it's obvious that the DUP and the Irish Government will not agree so therefore the ball is in the court of the EU to change their policy to allow things to proceed.

    If that doesn't happen he's indicated he expects TM to be willing to say there will not be a deal and to walk away from talks with the EU. To me that suggests that the hardline Brexiteers are become even more entrenched.

    A lot of the time I wonder if perhaps these hardline Brexiteers are hoping TM comes up with solutions that gets them out of holes they have dug for themselves.
    I thought they were suspiciously quiet yesterday until the DUP scuppered the deal and a lot of their rhetoric now after the deed is as much to do with preventing a general election that could prove costly not only for them personally, but the whole Brexit idea.


  • #9093
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,654 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    murphaph wrote: »
    How have they weakened the union? If the Tories weren't relying on the DUP in parliament yesterday's deal would have been done and THAT would have weakened the union (not as much as a catastrophic hard Brexit but still some). As it is if the UK as a whole does stay in the customs union and single market I see no weakening of the union at all. Everyone's a winner (bar the hard Brexiteers and common sense that says a soft Brexit is pretty pointless if just staying in or rejoining in April 2019 is an option!).

    Foster will go down as a modern day Carson amongst her constituency if NI is not treated differently and the result is a UK wide soft Brexit.

    To maintain the union they need friends in the UK.
    They have so divorced themselves already that the UK tried to sell them out yesterday (their own view).
    If there is no deal and a hard Brexit, that separation will only deepen. And sooner or later they will be looking for support for their place in the union from the people they severely embarrassed and discommoded yesterday.

    No skin off my nose, but they are the authors of their own fate.


  • #9094
    First Up
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,823 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    DUP press conference at the moment. Its all our fault apparently.


  • #9095
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,189 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Sethanon wrote: »
    Yes and no. Its simple for TM.
    The DUP have a choice. either give in and stay in power or go to GE and maybe have Corbyn in, who is pro united ireland.

    The DUP are stuborn, but it is more likely just more of their usual bluster where they storm out and then agree last minute.

    So for TM they either agree and she looks good for pulling off the deal. Or it goes to GE and she looses and gets to walk away and not worry about it. I'd call that a win/win scenario for TM.

    If a win is potentially destroying the UK for a few generations... looks like she won big.


  • #9096
    charlie14
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,584 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    listermint wrote: »
    Appears the Tory party now entirely aligns with the DUP.

    - unreasonable.
    - unknowledgeable
    - corruptible
    - selfish
    - Laughable.


    The party needs a break up, they clearly are not the conservative party that they claim to be.

    Well they do both have the word unionist in their party name, but I doubt there are very many in the Tory version that give a toss about how the NI version define this union as NI is costing them as much as they were paying into the EU.


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  • #9097
    flutered
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,724 ✭✭✭flutered


    First Up wrote: »
    DUP press conference at the moment. Its all our fault apparently.
    thats why arlene was too busy to meet may in london


  • #9098
    devnull
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,831 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    First Up wrote: »
    DUP press conference at the moment. Its all our fault apparently.

    Much the same as he said earlier here

    Notable that the DUP specifically suggested that things have got worse since LV has been Taioseach.

    They also claimed they had strong support from both LAB and CON.


  • #9099
    Leroy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,054 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Jayop wrote: »
    A soft brexit is a complete joke. Pointless affair and all it does is keeps England in the EU in effect with no input into the rules that they will have to follow. Idiotic solution to appease the non hardliners who voted for this.

    I'll ask again, what Brexit did people actually vote for?

    If I recall correctly, they were never asked which option they wanted so to claim that anyone voted for a hard brexit is nonsense.

    How do you know that people didn't just want to leave the EU but keep all other things the same?


  • #9100
    Larbre34
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,490 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Leroy42 wrote: »

    How do you know that people didn't just want to leave the EU but keep all other things the same?

    By the same token, what does that even mean? The two are mutually exclusive.


  • #9101
    Jayop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,387 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    First Up wrote: »
    DUP press conference at the moment. Its all our fault apparently.

    Stands to reason. SF playing a blinder by staying relatively quiet on this and forcing the DUP to attack FG instead of them. If they were attacking the old bogey man SF they would garner sympathy but this tactic is a joke. Even the woman Interviewing Wilson on Sky yesterday was almost mocking in her tone with him.

    How they figure its the irish fault that TM doesn't seem to have a clue what she's doing is anyone's guess. It's refreshing that people in the South ate getting to see what we from the north have long known.


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  • #9102
    First Up
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,823 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    devnull wrote:
    Notable that the DUP specifically suggested that things have got worse since LV has been Taioseach.

    "Worse" being open to interpretation of course.


  • #9103
    charlie14
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,584 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    devnull wrote: »
    Much the same as he said earlier here

    Notable that the DUP specifically suggested that things have got worse since LV has been Taioseach.

    They also claimed they had strong support from both LAB and CON.

    I do not know about Varadkar, but Coveney talking last week about a united Ireland surely didn`t help.


  • #9104
    Sethanon
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 17 ✭Sethanon


    J Mysterio wrote: »
    If a win is potentially destroying the UK for a few generations... looks like she won big.

    Destroying the UK? May wasn't the one who agreed to the referendum in the first place. And loosing NI would be a big benefit for the UK. it is a cash grubbling black hole.

    As for the mainland UK. Honestly some rural areas might suffer compared to now but most of the UK will be fine if not excel from Brexit. Unlike our government the UK's actually does a ok job of looking after its people in general.
    England will be fine after brecit and we are deluding ourselves to think otherwise (but then rte does pedal brexit doom as much as it can so no wonder we think it is bad for them too). Hell the company I work for has seen its profits go through the roof since brexit and the weaker sterling. The honest truth is brexit is bad for Ireland and will not have much affect on the UK in the long run. Our media is the one panicing because we are the ones who are fecked.


  • #9105
    Jayop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,387 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    I'll ask again, what Brexit did people actually vote for?

    If I recall correctly, they were never asked which option they wanted so to claim that anyone voted for a hard brexit is nonsense.

    How do you know that people didn't just want to leave the EU but keep all other things the same?

    They wanted to "take back control and stop immigration". If they stay in the SM and CU then not only will they do neither of those they'll actually have no input into the regulations that they will have to follow.

    I'd argue that the majority who voted leave did so because either...

    A) they're bitter little Englanders who never wanted to be in the EU in the first place.

    B) They voted leave as a protest vote never believing that it would pass

    C) this is likely the biggest group. They hadn't a clue what they were voting for but swallowed the crap their tabloid press was feeding them.


  • #9106
    listermint
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,383 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Sethanon wrote: »
    Destroying the UK? May wasn't the one who agreed to the referendum in the first place. And loosing NI would be a big benefit for the UK. it is a cash grubbling black hole.

    As for the mainland UK. Honestly some rural areas might suffer compared to now but most of the UK will be fine if not excel from Brexit. Unlike our government the UK's actually does a ok job of looking after its people in general.
    England will be fine after brecit and we are deluding ourselves to think otherwise (but then rte does pedal brexit doom as much as it can so no wonder we think it is bad for them too). Hell the company I work for has seen its profits go through the roof since brexit and the weaker sterling. The honest truth is brexit is bad for Ireland and will not have much affect on the UK in the long run. Our media is the one panicing because we are the ones who are fecked.

    Your analysis goes against all the facts to date.

    Which begs the question why one should take this analysis seriously.


  • #9107
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,654 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    charlie14 wrote: »
    I do not know about Varadkar, but Coveney talking last week about a united Ireland surely didn`t help.

    The DUP paying lipservice again.
    On the one hand they say that the aspiration to a united Ireland is fine and then on the other throwing the toys out of the pram whenever anyone mentions it.

    The 'united Ireland' stuff is just a crutch for them to play to their crowd.


  • #9108
    Jayop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,387 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    charlie14 wrote: »
    I do not know about Varadkar, but Coveney talking last week about a united Ireland surely didn`t help.

    Why shouldn't he? They're free to talk about their aspirations of remaining in the UK constantly. Wanting a UI in the future is a perfectly legitimate wish and one enshrined in the GFA which the DUP are suddenly concerned about.


  • #9109
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,752 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Sethanon wrote: »
    Destroying the UK? May wasn't the one who agreed to the referendum in the first place. And loosing NI would be a big benefit for the UK. it is a cash grubbling black hole.

    As for the mainland UK. Honestly some rural areas might suffer compared to now but most of the UK will be fine if not excel from Brexit. Unlike our government the UK's actually does a ok job of looking after its people in general.
    England will be fine after brecit and we are deluding ourselves to think otherwise (but then rte does pedal brexit doom as much as it can so no wonder we think it is bad for them too). Hell the company I work for has seen its profits go through the roof since brexit and the weaker sterling. The honest truth is brexit is bad for Ireland and will not have much affect on the UK in the long run. Our media is the one panicing because we are the ones who are fecked.

    lol

    Firstly, Brexit hasn't happened yet.

    Secondly, does this company export to the EU?

    NET Exporters invariably derive a benefit from a currency devaluation.


  • #9110
    swampgas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,615 ✭✭✭swampgas


    Jayop wrote: »
    It really is one time that a unity government type solution needs to be found and it's hard to believe that after almost two years they haven't realised this. Should cons and lab come up with a proper detailed plan they can both agree to then they would be significantly more powerful in the negotiations. Surely this is so important that party political crap could be parked for a year or two. It's mental.

    I don't think the danger feels real enough or near enough for many of the MPs yet. Too many of them are hoping somebody else will fix it so they don't have to make any embarrasing U-turns. And some of them really don't understand what Brexit really means.

    If this chaos drags into next year, I expect businesses will ramp up the pressure considerably. I'm surprised they haven't been more vocal to be honest.

    My money is still on chaotic hard Brexit though.


  • #9111
    Leroy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,054 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    By the same token, what does that even mean? The two are mutually exclusive.

    What? They leave the confines of the EU but retain the free movement etc in a manner like Norway etc

    Many brexiteers stated during the campaign that leaving the SM was never going to part of the plan, just to leave the EU. You can bet that many people voted on the believe that leaving the EU was just that, leaving the club, but continue to have the benefits.

    For people to now claim that one is either a remainer or a hard brexit is nothing but an attempt to make the case for a hard brexit seem more democratic


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  • #9112
    charlie14
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,584 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    The DUP paying lipservice again.
    On the one hand they say that the aspiration to a united Ireland is fine and then on the other throwing the toys out of the pram whenever anyone mentions it.

    The 'united Ireland' stuff is just a crutch for them to play to their crowd.

    Totally agree, but Coveney as Minister for Foreign Affairs talking last week in the middle of these negotiations off a united Ireland, was foolhardy and only provided the DUP with more petrol too throw on the fire.


  • #9113
    Sethanon
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 17 ✭Sethanon


    listermint wrote: »
    Your analysis goes against all the facts to date.

    Which begs the question why one should take this analysis seriously.

    Which facts are these? or are you basing this of the doom pedaling?

    I simply base mine on what I have seen in my own experience living and working there. Now I do work in the automation industry, so what I am looking at is product manufacturers and factories in that analysis (they are booming in the uk at the minute and its in no small part to the weaker sterling and exports. the EU would need to impose a 83% tariff for my company not to make a profit on exports after brexit)

    My wife did work for google while we lived in england, and they were not concerned at all by brexit. but they do have headquarters here so that is probably why.

    As I say we can kid ourselves all we like, England will be fine. It is us around the edges who will suffer not them. The likes of NI mean nothing to England and they would gladly drop it if they could
    lawred2 wrote: »
    lol

    Firstly, Brexit hasn't happened yet.

    Secondly, does this company export to the EU?

    NET Exporters invariably derive a benefit from a currency devaluation.

    Around 30-35% goes to EU. 10-15% global. rest is internal.
    What effect do people actually think it will have on England? its the rest that suffers. Mainland EU and England itself will not


  • #9114
    charlie14
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,584 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Jayop wrote: »
    Why shouldn't he? They're free to talk about their aspirations of remaining in the UK constantly. Wanting a UI in the future is a perfectly legitimate wish and one enshrined in the GFA which the DUP are suddenly concerned about.

    I would have thought being Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade would involve at least a bit of diplomacy.
    To go talking about a United Ireland in the middle of discussions on avoiding a hard border certainly wasn`t very diplomatic imo.


  • #9115
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    According to the press, Foster is 'too busy' to meet with May today.
    Perhaps Stormont has suddenly re-opened, and they're finally attempting to reduce the common 5yr+ NHS waiting list backlog?

    When 0.6% of the UK gov' seat holders are blocking a brexit deal,
    this can only spell one thing: PM Corbyn on the way before too long.

    Labour is currently fav to take the most seats in any next election.


  • #9116
    Leroy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,054 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Sethanon wrote: »
    Which facts are these? or are you basing this of the doom pedaling?

    I simply base mine on what I have seen in my own experience living and working there. Now I do work in the automation industry, so what I am looking at is product manufacturers and factories in that analysis (they are booming in the uk at the minute and its in no small part to the weaker sterling and exports. the EU would need to impose a 83% tariff for my company not to make a profit on exports after brexit)

    My wife did work for google while we lived in england, and they were not concerned at all by brexit. but they do have headquarters here so that is probably why.

    As I say we can kid ourselves all we like, England will be fine. It is us around the edges who will suffer not them. The likes of NI mean nothing to England and they would gladly drop it if they could

    Growth has already been reduced by 0.4% over the ext five years. Analysis by economists has valued the cost of loss of GDP since the vote at around £20bn.

    Brexit admin costs already at £700m , with a further £3bn set aside.

    There is currently no works undertaken on building the expanding port facilities needed due to increased customs. I doubt any costs have been considered in terms of the NI border.

    These are all either facts, or extrapolation based on facts. What you have is some anecdotal evidence.

    There is still the likely fall off in trade with the EU as it is pretty evident that companies will opt for custom free goods rather than the hassle and potential holdups from the UK (not all of course but it will have some effect).

    There is also the possibility of losing out some very high value COL jobs. The car manufacturers have also indicated that the costs of a customs regime will call into question their continued investment.

    So, please enlighten us with some of the expected upturns which will balance and go beyond these benefits


  • #9117
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,752 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Romeo Flabby Welfare wrote: »
    According to the press, Foster is 'too busy' to meet with May today.
    Perhaps Stormont has suddenly re-opened, and they're finally attempting to reduce the common 5yr+ NHS waiting list backlog?

    When 0.6% of the UK gov' seat holders are blocking a brexit deal,
    this can only spell one thing: PM Corbyn on the way before too long.

    They are also too busy to actually fulfill their democratic responsibilities in the Northern Assembly.


  • #9118
    First Up
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,823 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    Sethanon wrote:
    I simply base mine on what I have seen in my own experience living and working there. Now I do work in the automation industry, so what I am looking at is product manufacturers and factories in that analysis (they are booming in the uk at the minute and its in no small part to the weaker sterling and exports. the EU would need to impose a 83% tariff for my company not to make a profit on exports after brexit)

    Where does your company sit in the supply chain? Do you import components or operate a JIT manufacturing process? What delivery schedule do your EU customers require?

    There is more to the SM than tarrifs.


  • #9119
    BoatMad
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,702 ✭✭✭✭BoatMad


    Sethanon wrote: »
    Which facts are these? or are you basing this of the doom pedaling?

    I simply base mine on what I have seen in my own experience living and working there. Now I do work in the automation industry, so what I am looking at is product manufacturers and factories in that analysis (they are booming in the uk at the minute and its in no small part to the weaker sterling and exports. the EU would need to impose a 83% tariff for my company not to make a profit on exports after brexit)

    My wife did work for google while we lived in england, and they were not concerned at all by brexit. but they do have headquarters here so that is probably why.

    As I say we can kid ourselves all we like, England will be fine. It is us around the edges who will suffer not them. The likes of NI mean nothing to England and they would gladly drop it if they could



    Around 30-35% goes to EU. 10-15% global. rest is internal.
    What effect do people actually think it will have on England? its the rest that suffers. Mainland EU and England itself will not


    The effect of brexit will take several years to filter through as there is an expected 2 or maybe 3 year transition period alone

    Simply using the here and now is ridiculous , The UK is benefiting from lower sterling while retaining all the advantages of being in the EU

    that will change


  • #9120
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    lawred2 wrote: »
    They are also too busy to actually fulfill their democratic responsibilities in the Northern Assembly.

    But not the majority of the population of NI, who don't want Brexit, or any type of hard border.

    There's still plenty of potholes, health waiting lists and street lights that need fixing last time I visited.

    My bet is that she has her phone turned off today. And that a Labour government will materilse before too long, to clean up this mess.


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  • #9121
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,654 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    charlie14 wrote: »
    I would have thought being Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade would involve at least a bit of diplomacy.
    To go talking about a United Ireland in the middle of discussions on avoiding a hard border certainly wasn`t very diplomatic imo.

    Somebody needs to tell the DUP again and again that they need to get over our aspirations and themselves. They are protected by the GFA just as much as anybody else.
    Maybe then we could get a realistic plan for the future of the island.


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