Brexit discussion thread II

An Ciarraioch · 05-12-2017 01:50PM

laugh wrote: »

But there isn't currently enough support across the Tory party for a leave but stay in type scenario right?

If Labour approve of the concept, and the DUP are already favourable, then Rees-Mogg, Gove etc are expendable.

murphaph · 05-12-2017 01:53PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Unless May can secure a deal from Jeremy Corbyn about the NI border. Apparently, Labour, the Conservatives and the DUP have ordered staff not to appear on BBC Radio 4 today:

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/937944871847038977

Could be that a deal might be being negotiated. Sturgeon won't allow NI to remain in if Scotland is being dragged out.

May needs ongoing DUP confidence and supply or her government falls. If she betrays the DUP on this huge issue for them then the government falls. Corbyn won't agree to nurse Brexit through parliament. Labour would need to vote for several Tory budgets to keep them in power.

I'm sure every avenue is being pursued but realistically we here know you can't square this circle. The Tories themselves are too divided. Owen Paterson this morning sounded like he was trying to out DUP the DUP! Flat out rejected any regulatory convergence stuff.

Peregrinus · 05-12-2017 01:57PM

laugh wrote: »

But there isn't currently enough support across the Tory party for a leave but stay in type scenario right?

There isn't currently support across the Tory party for any coherent and viable Brexit strategy. That's why May is in the pickle she's in.

devnull · 05-12-2017 02:04PM

Latest quotes coming in the last half an hour

Theresa May

Our talks with the European Union have made a lot of progress.

There are still a couple of issues we need to work on.

But we'll be reconvening in Brussels later this week as we look ahead to the December European Council.

David Davis

Negotiations regarding our exit from the EU are ongoing as we speak.

Indeed, we're in the middle of an ongoing round and as such I have to be a bit more circumspect than usual.

We held further talks in Brussels over the past few days and progress has been made.

But we've not yet reached a final conclusion.

However, I believe we are now close to concluding the first phase of negotiations and moving on to talking about our future trade relations.

There is much common understanding and both sides agree we must move forwards together.

Our aims in this negotiation remain as they have always been.

In particular, on the issue of Northern Ireland, we have been clear we want to maintain all elements of the Good Friday Agreement, to maintain the Common Travel Area and protect associated rights.

We want to ensure there is no hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

We recognise as we exit we must protect the integrity of the EU single market and the customs union.

But we're equally clear we must respect the integrity of the UK.

There remain some final issues to resolve which require further negotiation and consultation over the coming days.

HugoRune · 05-12-2017 02:09PM

The DUP may have saved everyone's bacon if their intransigence means that the UK remains in the customs union and the single market.

murphaph · 05-12-2017 02:13PM

HugoRune wrote: »

The DUP may have saved everyone's bacon if their intransigence means that the UK remains in the customs union and the single market.

Yeah that would be the best outcome imaginable for Ireland. Pointless to Brexit like that but whatever floats their boat. The DUP doing the republic's economy a massive favour would be very satisfying indeed.

ancapailldorcha · 05-12-2017 02:15PM

murphaph wrote: »

May needs ongoing DUP confidence and supply or her government falls. If she betrays the DUP on this huge issue for them then the government falls. Corbyn won't agree to nurse Brexit through parliament. Labour would need to vote for several Tory budgets to keep them in power.

I'm sure every avenue is being pursued but realistically we here know you can't square this circle. The Tories themselves are too divided. Owen Paterson this morning sounded like he was trying to out DUP the DUP! Flat out rejected any regulatory convergence stuff.

No but I would say he would be more than happy to nudge NI closer to the republic though.

solodeogloria · 05-12-2017 02:15PM

murphaph wrote: »

Yeah that would be the best outcome imaginable for Ireland. Pointless to Brexit like that but whatever floats their boat. The DUP doing the republic's economy a massive favour would be very satisfying indeed.

Good afternoon!

Despite our differences - I couldn't agree more with the bolded statement. I would go further and say staying in the single market and customs union isn't really leaving the EU.

Let's see where we get to.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

kowtow · 05-12-2017 02:17PM

David Davis making this quite clear in the Commons if you listen between the lines.

"Regulatory Alignment" means mutual recognition of standards each enforced by the contracting party. On that basis, from the sound of it, the UK govt. is ready to consider regulatory alignment, beginning - in the first instance - with those areas critical to the GFA which will in the first instance keep the border open.

The principle of mutual recognition having been accepted, the way remains open to add further areas (both categorical and geographical) during the phase two trade negotiations.

The upshot of that is that this is, in fact, something of a storm in a teacup. There is a workable, if difficult to explain, solution on the table which not only satisfies the present difficulty but also offers a constructive framework for the future.

Even Rees Mogg is leaving the door open to that - note that his red line is "divergence", he remains silent on "alignment". That is also the stated red line of the DUP.

phater phagan · 05-12-2017 02:17PM

Peregrinus wrote: »

There isn't currently support across the Tory party for any coherent and viable Brexit strategy. That's why May is in the pickle she's in.

I agree completely.
I think the referendum passing caught most of them off-guard, it appears that they didn't think that it would pass.
Cameron has a lot to answer for by allowing it to take place, to enhance his own standing with the hard-right in the party, but is another matter.

Edwina Currie was on Pat Kenny this morning, was going on about stopping Sinn Fein's influence etc. Referring to Ulster being in the UK, Pat had to point out that their were nine counties in the province.

The DUP are ignoring the fact that the six counties voted to stay in the EU. I imagine that TM will over them loads of money, and it could change their attitude.

FrancieBrady · 05-12-2017 02:18PM

murphaph wrote: »

Yeah that would be the best outcome imaginable for Ireland. Pointless to Brexit like that but whatever floats their boat. The DUP doing the republic's economy a massive favour would be very satisfying indeed.

Absolutely. And then when the dust settles they will have to confront the reality that they didn't matter when it came to the UK trying to get a deal.
They have weakened the union monumentally.

devnull · 05-12-2017 02:27PM

Davis has just seemingly refused Rees-Mogs's demand for a red line in regards to regulatory divergence and responded by saying that the only red-line for DD is delivering the best Brexit for Britain.

Paterson still sticking to the line about no deal being better than a bad deal.

The Rape of Lucretia · 05-12-2017 02:32PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Indeed. Staying in the single market - because it involves so much more than that in standards legislation, ECJ, etc - is indeed pretty much staying in the EU without the full benefits and with more negatives. If it looks like a duck etc. So true Brexiters are correct to reject the single market.

There is really no such thing as a soft Brexiter. You are either a Brexiter, or a Remainer. A soft Brexiter is really just a Remainer who is trying to limit the damage and make the best of a battle they feel they have lost.

The Rape of Lucretia · 05-12-2017 02:35PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

'Looking at them' and what?

The pressure is still on May to find a solution.

Delicate situation also for the EU though - while they can play hardball to a certain extent - a hard Brexit or no deal is a border. And the British are so all over the shop, such a screw up cannot be discounted. So the EU has a fine line to tread and serious interest to negotiate something better themselves.

Leroy42 · 05-12-2017 02:37PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Indeed. Staying in the single market - because it involves so much more than that in standards legislation, ECJ, etc - is indeed pretty much staying in the EU without the full benefits and with more negatives. If it looks like a duck etc. So true Brexiter are correct to reject the single market.

There is really no such thing as a soft Brexiter. You are either a Brexiter, a Remainer. A soft Brexiter is really just a Remainer who is trying to limit the damamge and make the best of a battle they feel they have lost.

Rubbish, a hard brexiteer is one that wants to leave with no deal in place. A revert to WTO rules. No future plan of action.

A soft brexiteer is someone to understands that the above is not only reckless but will also likely put future trade agreements with other countries in danger and at best put the UK in a much weaker position in any negotiations.

Brexit has never been defined, not once. Since no definition exists how can you state that there is only a binary choice.

murphaph · 05-12-2017 02:46PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

No but I would say he would be more than happy to nudge NI closer to the republic though.

Absolutely he would and if the DUP collapse the government and Corbyn becomes PM (I don't believe he will unless unequivocally states that he will keep the UK in the SM and CU and that anything else would be economic suicide and even then I think it'll be an uphill battle for him to become PM).

I think Corbyn is awful and would never vote for his nationalise everything policies but it's still safer than walking off that cliff edge. But I don't think enough people recognise the cliff edge.

devnull · 05-12-2017 02:47PM

Dodds has now turned on our Government saying they are acting aggressively and anti-unionist whidh is disgraceful and has set back Anglo-Irish relations which will harm the devolution settlement and it will take a long time to repair.

He added that the DUP will not allow any settlement that causes the divergence, politically or economically, of NI from the rest of UK since it would create an economic catastrophy for the whole of NI

Davis then chimed in and stated that Dodds is dead right and there is no surprise that the DUP stands up for the UK along with the Unionist Party and the Conservative Party which seems to suggest that the deal is further and further away.

charlie14 · 05-12-2017 02:47PM

devnull wrote: »

Davis has just seemingly refused Rees-Mogs's demand for a red line in regards to regulatory divergence and responded by saying that the only red-line for DD is delivering the best Brexit for Britain.

Paterson still sticking to the line about no deal being better than a bad deal.

Paterson needs to read the writing on the wall.

With what TM was prepared to concede in order to get to phase 2 with very little original outrage until the DUP kicked off, it`s does not appear there are many of the Conservative and Unionist Party MP`s that believe a no deal is better than a bad deal

Jayop · 05-12-2017 02:48PM

A soft brexit is a complete joke. Pointless affair and all it does is keeps England in the EU in effect with no input into the rules that they will have to follow. Idiotic solution to appease the non hardliners who voted for this.

ancapailldorcha · 05-12-2017 02:50PM

murphaph wrote: »

Absolutely he would and if the DUP collapse the government and Corbyn becomes PM (I don't believe he will unless unequivocally states that he will keep the UK in the SM and CU and that anything else would be economic suicide and even then I think it'll be an uphill battle for him to become PM).

I think Corbyn is awful and would never vote for his nationalise everything policies but it's still safer than walking off that cliff edge. But I don't think enough people recognise the cliff edge.

I would not vote for him either over the duplicitous behaviour of his aide Seumas Milne and shadow chancellor John McDonnell during the referendum. I would also disagree with much of his statist agenda. However, Labour are just as divided as the Tories. Once the unifying force dissipates, expect lots of squabbling where the socialists hide behind the pretence of respecting the referendum vote while the pro-market liberals try to prevent economic catastrophe though there might be a chance that the unions might throw in with the latter. No point in taxing the rich if they all leave now is there?

ancapailldorcha · 05-12-2017 02:51PM

Jayop wrote: »

A soft brexit is a complete joke. Pointless affair and all it does is keeps England in the EU in effect with no input into the rules that they will have to follow. Idiotic solution to appease the non hardliners who voted for this.

Of course but this is now the best option unless the likes of Sir Keir Starmer and Andy Slaughter can leverage a referendum on the final deal out of Jeremy Corbyn.

devnull · 05-12-2017 02:52PM

charlie14 wrote: »

Paterson needs to read the writing on the wall.

Paterson has just made remarks saying that it's obvious that the DUP and the Irish Government will not agree so therefore the ball is in the court of the EU to change their policy to allow things to proceed.

If that doesn't happen he's indicated he expects TM to be willing to say there will not be a deal and to walk away from talks with the EU. To me that suggests that the hardline Brexiteers are become even more entrenched.

catrionanic · 05-12-2017 02:52PM

I fear we are veering towards a No deal and a hard border

lawred2 · 05-12-2017 02:54PM

devnull wrote: »

Paterson has just made remarks saying that it's obvious that the DUP and the Irish Government will not agree so therefore the ball is in the court of the EU to change their policy to allow things to proceed.

If that doesn't happen he's indicated he expects TM to be willing to say there will not be a deal and to walk away from talks with the EU. To me that suggests that the hardline Brexiteers are become even more entrenched.

they wouldn't be hard Brexiteers if they weren't prepared to be as entrenched as necessary really

I'm fully expecting some war references any time now

An Ciarraioch · 05-12-2017 02:58PM

catrionanic wrote: »

I fear we are veering towards a No deal and a hard border

From Davison and Davis's comments, I'd have thought they were softening up the Tories for a Soft Brexit, going by the talk of the whole UK being in "regulatory alignment".

listermint · 05-12-2017 02:59PM

Appears the Tory party now entirely aligns with the DUP.

- unreasonable.
- unknowledgeable
- corruptible
- selfish
- Laughable.

The party needs a break up, they clearly are not the conservative party that they claim to be.

Jayop · 05-12-2017 02:59PM

catrionanic wrote: »

I fear we are veering towards a No deal and a hard border

Sounds like the opposite to me.

murphaph · 05-12-2017 03:00PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Absolutely. And then when the dust settles they will have to confront the reality that they didn't matter when it came to the UK trying to get a deal.
They have weakened the union monumentally.

How have they weakened the union? If the Tories weren't relying on the DUP in parliament yesterday's deal would have been done and THAT would have weakened the union (not as much as a catastrophic hard Brexit but still some). As it is if the UK as a whole does stay in the customs union and single market I see no weakening of the union at all. Everyone's a winner (bar the hard Brexiteers and common sense that says a soft Brexit is pretty pointless if just staying in or rejoining in April 2019 is an option!).

Foster will go down as a modern day Carson amongst her constituency if NI is not treated differently and the result is a UK wide soft Brexit.

Jayop · 05-12-2017 03:01PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Of course but this is now the best option unless the likes of Sir Keir Starmer and Andy Slaughter can leverage a referendum on the final deal out of Jeremy Corbyn.

It really is one time that a unity government type solution needs to be found and it's hard to believe that after almost two years they haven't realised this. Should cons and lab come up with a proper detailed plan they can both agree to then they would be significantly more powerful in the negotiations. Surely this is so important that party political crap could be parked for a year or two. It's mental.

Christy42 · 05-12-2017 03:02PM

Sethanon wrote: »

Yes and no. Its simple for TM.
The DUP have a choice. either give in and stay in power or go to GE and maybe have Corbyn in, who is pro united ireland.

The DUP are stuborn, but it is more likely just more of their usual bluster where they storm out and then agree last minute.

So for TM they either agree and she looks good for pulling off the deal. Or it goes to GE and she looses and gets to walk away and not worry about it. I'd call that a win/win scenario for TM.

Takes some twisting to call losing power to those who she is opposed to politically while having achieved nothing on Brexit a win. If she wanted that she could retire to a country home, no need to politically set it up.

She needs to bring her own party and her own alliance in line in such a way that no one is in doubt over their loyalty again. Otherwise it is pointless to negotiate with her. She does not speak for the government.

Brexit discussion thread II

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