Brexit discussion thread II

For Forks Sake · 04-12-2017 10:57PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

I agree it would have been a very good have your cake and eat it deal for NI.

But.......only from your and my perspective. It would not have been an improvement of the lot of ALL in NI for those who would perceive a divergence from the rest of the UK as a disimprovement of their lot. And that is the case for a many.

So not nonsense. But an alternative view that some their have there. And I recognise their right to hold it, even it is not my own.

It'll be a significant disimprovement for NI's DUP voting farmers when their EU grant money dries up in 14 months time....

McMurphy · 04-12-2017 11:00PM

First Up wrote: »

As did every other party - and all by more than 72%

And solidifies my point.

The DUP aren't representative of your typical person in the north. It is simply wrong to try and claim otherwise.

56-44. Solid but hardly overwhelming.

Semantics. See the bolded text above.

Junkyard Tom · 04-12-2017 11:00PM

MadYaker wrote: »

If that were true then how do the DUP still get so many votes and seats in elections?

Fenian Fear Factor. If you don't vote for us them'uns will get in, and destroy the union and then at the party conference they say the Union is safe.

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

But it must be recognised that for unionists, staying in the one boat with the rest of the UK, come what (Teresa) may, is paramount and above matters economical.

This is not correct if the QUB poll is anything to go by. The public should understand that the largest religious denomination in the DUP are Free Presbyterians who are fairly fundamentalist yet they only account for 0.6% of the wider population. They also are very close to the Orange Order and have other murkier links too.

UrbanFret · 04-12-2017 11:02PM

Arlenes catholic ancestors took the soup. The souper kellys,
Soupers were frequently ostracised by their own community, and were strongly denounced from the pulpit by the Catholic priesthood. On occasion, soupers had to be protected by British soldiers from other Catholics.
Heres were the bitterness started. she hates everything irish and catholic.

The Rape of Lucretia · 04-12-2017 11:02PM

For Forks Sake wrote: »

It'll be a significant disimprovement for NI's DUP voting farmers when their EU grant money dries up in 14 months time....

But that kind of line is again just a condescending "you'll be sorry" jibe that fails to acknowledge their viewpoint is different to yours.

Enzokk · 04-12-2017 11:03PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

I think this line, posted by others as well, is extremely condescending to unionists.
Brexit may seem bats and economic suicide to us. And access to the EU zone, as they scuppered, a way out of that madness. But it must be recognised that for unionists, staying in the one boat with the rest of the UK, come what (Teresa) may, is paramount and above matters economical. And that this is a valid viewpoint to hold.
So they did not cut off their noses - they used their democratic influence to protect what is the single most fundamental basis to their identity. Respect.

So you are saying that the DUP would gladly let their own country go down in flames and let their own countrymen suffer, as long as they still have a connection to Brittain. The same country that, as has been pointed out, they don't seem to share the same social outlook on life on. But, yeah, respect.

First Up · 04-12-2017 11:03PM

Rick Shaw wrote:

Semantics. See the bolded text above.

They got more votes and more seats than anyone else. You seem happy to accept a majority in a binary vote but not a relative majority in a multi-party election.

Why is that?

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 11:06PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

But that kind of line is again just a condescending "you'll be sorry" jibe that fails to acknowledge their viewpoint is different to yours.

The dealing should have been between the UK and the EU though.
Mays deal allowed the power to be in one party's hands. That is wholly wrong.

kowtow · 04-12-2017 11:10PM

An unintended consequence of the hiatus regarding the border, and more particularly the rhetoric (from all sides) which has accompanied it, is that the Tory party is much more likely - IMO - to quickly select a replacement for May who is more ideologically committed to Brexit than she is.

If there were to be an election as well - and I am not sure there would be - the events of recent weeks have also given the Tories a very clear anti-EU platform to take to the country. Doing so would be a very high risk strategy indeed, and I am not sure that it would succeed, but it gives the Tories something to work with. The only alternative on offer would be a vote for Corbyn and, whilst there is a significant risk of him winning, neither his Brexit policies nor his economic policies would necessarily stand up to the heat of a campaign. Also - the danger of Corbyn winning (made clear in June) is perhaps the biggest incentive to vote against him for a large part of the country who just aren't prepared to risk him.

If there was to be a change of leadership, and an election tomorrow, I would be willing to bet on a Tory majority - and that is not something which I would have said three weeks ago.

High risk and nowhere near certain, and an election which could be overtaken by events - including economic ones - but nevertheless an election which is more winnable for the Tories than most commentators seem to imagine.

I wonder would they dare...

First Up · 04-12-2017 11:15PM

FrancieBrady wrote:

The dealing should have been between the UK and the EU though. Mays deal allowed the power to be in one party's hands. That is wholly wrong.

As Varadkar and Coveney said, the Irish govt. negotiated in good faith with (and only with) the UK govt. So did the rest of the EU.

It is only the current HoC maths that enable the DUP have such influence; if May didn't need them, the draft agreed today would have gone through.

McMurphy · 04-12-2017 11:27PM

First Up wrote: »

They got more votes and more seats than anyone else. You seem happy to accept a majority in a binary vote but not a relative majority in a multi-party election.

Why is that?

No one is disputing their seats/Vote share.

I am disputing that they are representative of your typical person in the north.

As already pointed out, they were the only major political party in the north to oppose and campaign against the GFA (which they seem to have a newfound love for)

The conflicts over now. Right?

Itssoeasy · 04-12-2017 11:28PM

The British papers tomorrow aren't that positive towards the DUP.

The Rape of Lucretia · 04-12-2017 11:34PM

Rick Shaw wrote: »

I am disputing that they are representative of your typical person in the north.

Nobody can represent your typical person in the north because there is no such thing there. They have about 5 typicals.

Thargor · 04-12-2017 11:37PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

The British papers tomorrow aren't that positive towards the DUP.

Just looking at Skys review of the morning papers there, all anti-DUP, all calling it chaos or a shambles, maybe the penny is finally starting to drop.

devnull · 04-12-2017 11:38PM

UK Newspaper Front Pages

Torygraph: May's Push for Deal Ends in Chaos
FT: Brexit divorce derailed at 11th hour after DUP blocks Irish border deal.
Metro: They're Taking the DUP
I: Brexit deal is done then DUP says no.
Mirror: Duped - May gave unionists £1bn for their support....now they derail brexit.
Guardian: DUP wrecks May's Brexit Deal
Times: May fights to save Brexit deal after Unionist Veto
Express: Irish border row stalls EU deal but May battles on

No Daily Mail yet.

ThisRegard · 04-12-2017 11:42PM

Press Preview on Sky News taking quite a measured and logical stance on what happened today, and the UK governments naivety with dealing with an NI party such as the DUP, what the ROI want the DUP will automatically look for the opposite.

Strazdas · 04-12-2017 11:50PM

Thargor wrote: »

Just looking at Skys review of the morning papers there, all anti-DUP, all calling it chaos or a shambles, maybe the penny is finally starting to drop.

Yes, because May was humiliated to a certain extent. She flew to Brussels today to meet with Juncker and Tusk and to publicly sign off on the Phase 1 deal. The fact that nothing actually happened and the entire day was wasted was rather embarrassing for her and the UK.

devnull · 04-12-2017 11:52PM

Just saw the front page of the Daily Mail - not a word about today's events on there.

04-12-2017 11:56PM

Robert Peston on ITV News making some interesting predictions as to what TM will do at cabinet tomorrow. Saying that she will confront Gove and Johnson et al and tell them its a deal for the whole UK similar to what was on offer for NI today or theres a hard Brexit or even maybe a 2nd referendum and the possibility of no Brexit at all after that. Could be stormy......

Strazdas · 04-12-2017 11:56PM

devnull wrote: »

Just saw the front page of the Daily Mail - not a word about today's events on there.

There's something very strange going on with the Daily Mail. They've been avoiding Brexit stories on the front page for many months now.

Strazdas · 04-12-2017 11:59PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Robert Peston on ITV News making some interesting predictions as to what TM will do at cabinet tomorrow. Saying that she will confront Gove and Johnson et al and tell them its a deal for the whole UK similar to what was on offer for NI today or theres a hard Brexit or even maybe a 2nd referendum and the possibility of no Brexit at all after that. Could be stormy......

There was speculation today that the NI arrangement could be very problematic and that a UK wide one could be more sellable in that at least it would shut the DUP up.

Risteard81 · 05-12-2017 12:00AM

So-called "EU" regulation is unwelcome and illegal throughout all of Ireland. So today's events were a positive thing.

Samaris · 05-12-2017 12:16AM

And, several hours past eleventh hour, Wales come out of left field with a spear tackle to the devolution process.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-42217048

Tories just can't get away with nuthin these days.

blanch152 · 05-12-2017 12:25AM

A momentous time but posters are tying themselves in knots.

When they bemoan the right of the DUP to control the UK agenda, do they not realise that the DUP have a bigger share of the House of Commons than FG do of the European Parliament?

When posters say that the DUP should respect the wishes of the voters who voted to Remain in Northern Ireland, are they the same posters who told the Tories the vote was only advisory?

The irony is unbelievable.

Turning to the main events, I keep coming back to the Good Friday Agreement. It is an international agreement that the UK is bound by. However, it only envisages limited North-South co-operation, not an open border, and not the list of 158 items identified by the Irish government.

A tighter text with regulatory coverage limited to just what is explicitly covered by the GFA and extended across the UK could hardly be refused by the backbench Tories and the DUP, as it only refers to separate international agreements. Neither could the Scots, Welsh or Londoners object in that case.

Ireland would be upset as such a deal would be a long way short of what we want and would effectively mean a hard border depending on the trade talks. The EU could tell us we got what we were legally entitled to and the rest would have to be considered in phase 2.

Junkyard Tom · 05-12-2017 12:32AM

blanch152 wrote: »

However, it only envisages limited North-South co-operation, not an open border, and not the list of 158 items identified by the Irish government.

There will be civil disobedience if they try to reimpose a hard border. Be careful what you wish for. A hard Brexit and hard border in Ireland will only hurry along yours, and Unionists', nightmare of a pro-UI vote in the north.

FrancieBrady · 05-12-2017 12:40AM

blanch152 wrote: »

A momentous time but posters are tying themselves in knots.

When they bemoan the right of the DUP to control the UK agenda, do they not realise that the DUP have a bigger share of the House of Commons than FG do of the European Parliament?

When posters say that the DUP should respect the wishes of the voters who voted to Remain in Northern Ireland, are they the same posters who told the Tories the vote was only advisory?

The irony is unbelievable.

Turning to the main events, I keep coming back to the Good Friday Agreement. It is an international agreement that the UK is bound by. However, it only envisages limited North-South co-operation, not an open border, and not the list of 158 items identified by the Irish government.

A tighter text with regulatory coverage limited to just what is explicitly covered by the GFA and extended across the UK could hardly be refused by the backbench Tories and the DUP, as it only refers to separate international agreements. Neither could the Scots, Welsh or Londoners object in that case.

Ireland would be upset as such a deal would be a long way short of what we want and would effectively mean a hard border depending on the trade talks. The EU could tell us we got what we were legally entitled to and the rest would have to be considered in phase 2.

There are no signs at all that Ireland and the rest of the EU's position is shifting towards that.

May is completely snookered here.

I think we are closer to the whole UK staying in the CU/SM to get around this blockage. Because I think the signs are they are desperate to avoid a hard Brexit.

blanch152 · 05-12-2017 12:43AM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

There will be civil disobedience if they try to reimpose a hard border. Be careful what you wish for. A hard Brexit and hard border in Ireland will only hurry along yours, and Unionists', nightmare of a pro-UI vote in the north.

Who said anything about reimposing a hard border? This is only to kick-off stage 2. It is only when the outcome of stage 2 is known that we know what kind of border we have. To me, it makes no sense for the UK to concede any more than what is in the letter of the GFA. Any other concession weakens their negotiating position.

FrancieBrady · 05-12-2017 12:45AM

blanch152 wrote: »

Who said anything about reimposing a hard border? This is only to kick-off stage 2. It is only when the outcome of stage 2 is known that we know what kind of border we have. To me, it makes no sense for the UK to concede any more than what is in the letter of the GFA. Any other concession weakens their negotiating position.

They did concede it.

blanch152 · 05-12-2017 12:46AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There are no signs at all that Ireland and the rest of the EU's position is shifting towards that.

May is completely snookered here.

I think we are closer to the whole UK staying in the CU/SM to get around this blockage. Because I think the signs are they are desperate to avoid a hard Brexit.

I never said that Ireland and the rest of the EU's position is shifting towards that.

I am just saying that if May comes back and promises to respect the letter of the GFA, then how can we turn that down?

As for your last point, I have always felt that the UK staying in the CU/SM is the most likely outcome. It is also the best outcome for IReland. There will be many twists and turns along the way before that happens.

MarinersBlues · 05-12-2017 12:49AM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

The British papers tomorrow aren't that positive towards the DUP.

That depends on your view of whether Theresa's deal Is agood or a bad thing.

Brexit discussion thread II

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