Brexit discussion thread II

flutered · 04-12-2017 08:42PM

kowtow wrote: »

If there is any change to the text now it will be flowery language to acknowledge that the neither the EU nor Ireland wants a border in the Irish sea, and tying down the areas of convergence even further by centering the whole thing even more on the GFA.

90% of what we are seeing now is jostling to claim a victory. The underlying reality, as seen in the text this morning, is that there was never going to be a hard border in the sense that most people understand it and that there will be regulatory equivalence at least in the areas identified by the GFA. That in itself is a great reassurance for us in Ireland.

Phase two is going to be the interesting one and that it actually the point at which Ireland's interests fall closer to those of the UK than those of the rest of the EU. That's where the fun will start.

phase two cannot start until phase one is agreed upon

lawred2 · 04-12-2017 08:45PM

Royale with Cheese wrote: »

I just don't get why unioninsts are still so staunchly loyal to the UK at this point, the vast majority of the population and their government clearly don't give a fúck about Northern Ireland.

It's because they are unionists

The Rape of Lucretia · 04-12-2017 08:47PM

selectamatic wrote: »

Seeing as we're going criticising things that are worthy of criticism, when can we expect your essay criticising Foster, Paisley jr, Wilson etc. for basically denying the North of Ireland achieving a special arrangement that would have put it's populace in a great position for future trading with both the EU and mainland UK. For the vast majority in the north this could have been an acceptable and above all beneficial deal regardless of class, creed or belief.

It wouldnt be beneficial or acceptable to a significant minority though.
Anything less than they have done, if they have done it, would be seriously remiss of Foster, PaisleyJr, and Wilson etc. They are not in the UK to become a less united part of the united Kingdom. Its unacceptability to them is perfectly reasonable. It is the election call booboo that has put Teresa in this tight corner.

druss · 04-12-2017 08:50PM

cml387 wrote: »

If it's ignorance you want:

from BBC's reality check:

Owen Paterson told the Today Programme that there's only a small amount of trade between the UK and Republic of Ireland.

The Republic of Ireland is the fifth biggest customer for UK exports. The UK is the second biggest customer for Irish exports.

And the Republic of Ireland is a much more important destination for exports from Northern Ireland than Mr Paterson's figures suggest. It doesn't buy 5%, it buys 37%.

But Northern Ireland does indeed buy 1.6% of the Irish Republic's exports.

Owen Paterson, former Secretary of State for Northern Ireland.

Owen Paterson, former Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

Fr Tod Umptious · 04-12-2017 08:52PM

lawred2 wrote: »

It's because they are unionists

It's got shades of the 1914 Home Rule crisis about it.

When unionists we're willing to go to war with the British to show how loyal they were to Britain.

J Mysterio · 04-12-2017 08:55PM

The UK is dangerously close to complete anarchy from what I can see.

I'm in shock.

I was on a massive high this morning based on what seemed to be a good deal concluded. That bubble rapidly burst somewhere around 2:30.

This stuff is unbelievable. It's been dragged out for so long yet there still seems to be surprises to the UK on the matter... it's inconceivable really. Seems almost everyone on the EU and Ireland side were quick to grasp the key issues sometime back in the summer of 2016. I hope to god May can rescue this now because there will be bedlam.

I probably shouldn't be so emotionally invested in this but, hey.

Water John · 04-12-2017 08:55PM

That's the point. Unionist's are loyal to Queen Victoria.

The Rape of Lucretia · 04-12-2017 08:55PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

The bottom line, is that the UK couldnt come up with a solution to square the circle, and so tried to sell out NI, but didnt get away with it.

devnull · 04-12-2017 08:55PM

Dominic Grieve has said that there are a large number of MPs, including himself, who are against the deal that was put forward by the UK Government today which gives the impression it's far from just the brexiteers that are against this deal.

He stated that he believes that a large number in Westminster who are against any deal that sets Northern Ireland apart from the rest of the UK and as such he doesn't expect any deal to be possible.

That is from a remain supporter which suggests the problem is wider than just brexiteers and the DUP objecting and raises serious questions of this deal being resurrected at all.

I can't see how TM is going to convince elements of the leave wing of her party, the DUP and the remain elements of her party, all of which seem to have some issues with this deal, all back on-side.

By the week her calling of a general election looks more and more reckless.

The Rape of Lucretia · 04-12-2017 08:57PM

flutered wrote: »

phase two cannot start until phase one is agreed upon

Weeeeeeeeeeeellllll. It can. It was said it couldnt. But that was only a position, not an inherently obligatory sequence. Circumstances alter positions.

Water John · 04-12-2017 08:59PM

Odds are sadly, that the deal will unravel, rather than being put back together, over the next few days.

The better option, in that case, is the UK go to the polls and see can they put in place, a coherent Govn't.

The Rape of Lucretia · 04-12-2017 09:00PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

I was on a massive high this morning based on what seemed to be a good deal concluded.

Surely it was a horrendous deal from the point of view of unionists, whose mass on being equal members of the EU overrides (as is their right to choose it so) their concerns for the economic outlook for themselves or the republic.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 09:01PM

Water John wrote: »

Odds are sadly, that the deal will unravel, rather than being put back together, over the next few days.

The better option, in that case, is the UK go to the polls and see cant they put in place, a coherent Govn't.

When the dust settles, the distrust between the DUP and May will have to be fairly low.

Election day looming closer.

The Rape of Lucretia · 04-12-2017 09:01PM

Water John wrote: »

Odds are sadly, that the deal will unravel, rather than being put back together, over the next few days.

The better option, in that case, is the UK go to the polls and see can they put in place, a coherent Govn't.

A Labour majority that has the ooomph to steamroll over the DUP, and follow through on this mornings deal ?

devnull · 04-12-2017 09:05PM

Water John wrote: »

Odds are sadly, that the deal will unravel, rather than being put back together, over the next few days.

The better option, in that case, is the UK go to the polls and see cant they put in place, a coherent Govn't.

And this is just the first phase of talks and look how long it is taking to get this far because of the various infighting with her own party, the DUP, out of touch politicians and unrealistic expectations and a complete ignorance and lack of knowledge from many of the people involved with no little spoonful of a feeling of entitlement.

How on earth is she going to agree anything in the second phase when the fact is that all it needs is a handful of those sitting on the government benches or that of the DUP to object and they essentially have a veto on anything that they don't like because of her wafer thin majority even when the DUP are taken into account.

She's the leader of the party but she's certainly not in power and it's all her own fault.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 09:10PM

devnull wrote: »

And this is just the first phase of talks and look how long it is taking to get this far because of the various infighting with her own party, the DUP, out of touch politicians and unrealistic expectations and a complete ignorance and lack of knowledge from many of the people involved with no little spoonful of a feeling of entitlement.

How on earth is she going to agree anything in the second phase when the fact is that all it needs is a handful of those sitting on the government benches or that of the DUP to object and they essentially have a veto on anything that they don't like because of her wafer thin majority even when the DUP are taken into account.

She's the leader of the party but she's certainly not in power and it's all her own fault.

She isn't even leader of her party. It's a joke at this stage. Only that there is nobody with the cahonas to take over she would be gone.

devnull · 04-12-2017 09:13PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

She isn't even leader of her party. It's a joke at this stage. Only that there is nobody with the cahonas to take over she would be gone.

Most of them wouldn't touch the leadership with a bargepole right now, they know that it would be somewhat of a poisoned chalice so I would say they are hoping that she takes all the flack and they pounce on her afterwards.

They'd have got rid of her already if it wasn't for brexit.

MadYaker · 04-12-2017 09:15PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

The bottom line, is that the UK couldnt come up with a solution to square the circle, and so tried to sell out NI, but didnt get away with it.

I don't buy this. How could she have thought she'd get away with trying to pull a fast one on the people who are propping up her government?

Beechwoodspark · 04-12-2017 09:16PM

devnull wrote: »

Most of them wouldn't touch the leadership with a bargepole right now, they know that it would be somewhat of a poisoned chalice so I would say they are hoping that she takes all the flack and they pounce on her afterwards.

They'd have got rid of her already if it wasn't for brexit.

No doubt they'll go with the buffoon Johnson when they do actually put her out of her misery. And he'll be even worse!

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 09:17PM

She isn't going into parliament this evening either.

J Mysterio · 04-12-2017 09:18PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Surely it was a horrendous deal from the point of view of unionists, whose mass on being equal members of the EU overrides (as is their right to choose it so) their concerns for the economic outlook for themselves or the republic.

Ah take the train will you?

The Unionists object to it because it hurts their feelings, not their material situation. It actually protects them as it does everyone else in NI and it ensures a healthy peace on this island.

The Brexiteers and every other incoherent fool in the UK parliament are going to pretend they give a **** about the Unionists now because it is politically expedient for them.

A deal would also have saved the UK from the complete anarchy it is now plunging headlong into. This is getting very serious indeed.

PeadarCo · 04-12-2017 09:20PM

J Mysterio wrote:

Pretty inflammatory headline right there.

While the headline is inflammatory the article makes a very good point. Brexit and an EU trade deal is struggling to a large degree because of Ireland. The country that's most exposed to Brexit and the country you would expect to want a trade deal most. But the UKs position is so weak it had to give way to Ireland's demands before doing a u turn. In the context of how important Brexit is to the UK and UK/Irish history its remarkable.

One of ideas about leaving the EU was the UK could and can get better deals outside it. Given that the UK can't get its way with Ireland(with EU backing) it just shows how difficult trade deals will be with countries like the USA, India China etc. Countries that are much bigger than Ireland and for whom a new trade deal is worth far less. Its the clearest example of how in terms of trade negotiations how much weaker the Brexit process has made the UK.

J Mysterio · 04-12-2017 09:21PM

devnull wrote: »

And this is just the first phase of talks and look how long it is taking to get this far because of the various infighting with her own party, the DUP, out of touch politicians and unrealistic expectations and a complete ignorance and lack of knowledge from many of the people involved with no little spoonful of a feeling of entitlement.

How on earth is she going to agree anything in the second phase when the fact is that all it needs is a handful of those sitting on the government benches or that of the DUP to object and they essentially have a veto on anything that they don't like because of her wafer thin majority even when the DUP are taken into account.

She's the leader of the party but she's certainly not in power and it's all her own fault.

She is the leader of the UK in what appears to be one of the most momentous (or infamous) moments in UK history. This is an utter failure right now, a shambles. The UK is utterly divided, it's civil war.

J Mysterio · 04-12-2017 09:22PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

She isn't going into parliament this evening either.

I'd say she's going into some sort of stasis chamber. How can you recover from this?

MPFGLB · 04-12-2017 09:23PM

devnull wrote: »

Dominic Grieve has said that there are a large number of MPs, including himself, who are against the deal that was put forward by the UK Government today which gives the impression it's far from just the brexiteers that are against this deal.

He stated that he believes that a large number in Westminster who are against any deal that sets Northern Ireland apart from the rest of the UK and as such he doesn't expect any deal to be possible.

That is from a remain supporter which suggests the problem is wider than just brexiteers and the DUP objecting and raises serious questions of this deal being resurrected at all.

I can't see how TM is going to convince elements of the leave wing of her party, the DUP and the remain elements of her party, all of which seem to have some issues with this deal, all back on-side.

By the week her calling of a general election looks more and more reckless.

Grieve is a staunch Unionist ...most MPs are not really of the same mind

blackcard · 04-12-2017 09:30PM

Visiting the North and seeing the proliferation of tricolours and Union
Jacks and listening to the bigots on both sides on Newstalk today made me realise that I have very little in common with the Northern Irish. Given their history, it may be understandable that they are the way they are but if I was given the choice between living in England (as I did for two years) or living in the North, I would pick England. The people in the North really needs to understand how they are viewed by the outside world and today showed them in their true colours. In truth, they are not wanted by the rest of the UK. The only reason May listened to Arlene today was that she wants to cling to power. I think today will be a pyrrhic victory.

johnnyskeleton · 04-12-2017 09:35PM

Mod note:

A gentle reminder folks that just because the world has gone mad doesnt mean that the charter and standards required for Political discussion here have in any way lessened!

Water John · 04-12-2017 09:36PM

Peter Hain on Sky talking sense. all stay in the CU and SM.

joe40 · 04-12-2017 09:37PM

Since the DUP are so adamant that there can be no diffference between northern ireland and the rest of the UK will we see the same abortion laws and marriage equality in the North shortly.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 09:38PM

Water John wrote: »

Peter Hain on Sky talking sense. all stay in the CU and SM.

I think that is what Dublin and the rest of the EU may achieve.
It's either that or May comes tumbling down very soon.

Brexit discussion thread II

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