Brexit discussion thread II

murphaph · 04-12-2017 06:15PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, not as revenge, we are going to veto it because the UK can not exit with no deal, the government over there will fall and the next lot will be more amenable.

I wish that was a likely outcome but the UK political class is batsh1t crazy with very few sane voices in parliament. Brexit is a pseudo religion. Who the hell knows what will happen.

awec · 04-12-2017 06:18PM

This post has been deleted.

Itssoeasy · 04-12-2017 06:18PM

Leo varadkar speaking now.

kravmaga · 04-12-2017 06:19PM

Headline in yesterdays Sunday Business Post.

And it does not surprise me, a lot of English government Ministers need to go back to Geography or History classes wrt Ireland as an island.

The sheer ignorance is un- real of some British cabinet MP'S on there nearest neighbour Ireland.

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/government-tells-britain-learn-ireland-crucial-brexit-talks-404406

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/brexit-no-deal-today-between-ireland-and-uk-on-border-36377250.html

Leroy42 · 04-12-2017 06:20PM

kowtow wrote: »

I think the text which was in front of MEP's was leaked left right and centre and certainly plenty of people were keen to get in front of the microphone and announce that a deal had been done, even as the vital convergence vs divergence words were being changed.

May's critics were tweeting joyously earlier that London's "silence" this morning was evidence that she had been forced to give in to the "EU demands".

So there was a deal, one which it would seem that May was ameniable to.

If she said that, then yes it seems there were a bit forward in getting it out but tbh they probably are used to dealing with leaders who actually have authority to make deals.

Why was she over for lunch to make a deal when it is now clear that she is in no position to make any deal?

devnull · 04-12-2017 06:21PM

Leo saying they couldn't get a cast iron guarantee of no border and there is no hidden agenda and the guiding light is the Good Friday Agreement and they don't want a border in the Irish Sea.

Zubeneschamali · 04-12-2017 06:22PM

awec wrote: »

BBC saying DUP and ~20 tories killed the deal

The problem is not really the DUP, they just don't want to look as if they are doing anything all-Irelandish. The problem is those 20 Tories. These are the folks who genuinely believe the UK can jump off the cliff and grow wings on the way down.

Harika · 04-12-2017 06:22PM

Blowfish wrote: »

I wouldn't say that, pressure has shifted away from Ireland as Irelands reaction showed that a deal is possible. Even in the UK press the narrative is now that it's the DUP who are preventing progression, talk of the 'Irish Veto' has quietened a bit.

Seems like there is a mission now to convince the DUP

https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/937731199518289921

That will put pressure on Foster to look into the deal offered.

devnull · 04-12-2017 06:23PM

The UK agreed a text on border that met their concerns, meeting the broader agreement on phase one, to move on to Phase two, contacted by Juncker and Tusk and Leo confirmed Ireland had agreed to it but the UK government has pulled back despite earlier agreement.

04-12-2017 06:23PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

DO you think that the Irish just made it all up, that press conferences were arranged and that tweets were sent from EU stating a deal was close for sh1t and giggles or just to put pressure on May?

No, of course not, but i do think there was an eagerness among several politicians to break the news and to somehow claim credit for the breakthrough.

awec · 04-12-2017 06:24PM

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devnull · 04-12-2017 06:24PM

TM has asked for more time but Leo says that the position will not change of Ireland, and he wants to go phase two, but will not do this unless given firm gurantees there will not be a hard border.

Leo has spoke to Juncker and says that EU's position still remains Irelands.

devnull · 04-12-2017 06:27PM

Leo says in relation to the DUP they are just one party in NI and we need to have regard of what other parties think in Northern Ireland and also the people of Northern Ireland and not just the DUP.

He says the motivations of Irish government are to maintain status quo as much as possible and all they want is people to go about normal lives as they do now and only objective and not looking to pick around and there is no hidden agenda as response to the DUP chancers accusation.

ThisRegard · 04-12-2017 06:28PM

Panrich wrote: »

Looks like the government were crowing a little early.

The leaks that have been a feature of the diplomacy to date might have backfired today.

By all accounts they, and the EU, had the nod from the British Government that they were ok to make statements that they were in agreement until I guess the DUP.

blanch152 · 04-12-2017 06:29PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Why do you keep saying this. My understanding is that all sides agree that NI is different due to the historical facts and the operation of the GFA. Not sure why that limits either Ireland or the EU for looking at more than just the items listed on the GFA

Of course we can look for more than just the items listed on the GFA. But we have been crowing since the start about the need to protect the GFA. That has brought us to the point where the UK (with the backing of the DUP) are in a position to say that you can have what is in the GFA but nothing more at this stage. After all, that is the agreement all sides have signed up to.

Think about it, why would May or the DUP hand over more North-South co-operation than they are required to do by the GFA when it can be used in the trade talks as a bargaining chip?

devnull · 04-12-2017 06:29PM

LV: Not our role to make sure DUP or Tories were onside (hinting at Tory Rebels as well as previously mentioned on the thread). Says Ireland took part in good faith and they agreed text this morning, briefed opposition today but TM needs more time.

Leroy42 · 04-12-2017 06:30PM

Aegir wrote: »

No, of course not, but i do think there was an eagerness among several politicians to break the news and to somehow claim credit for the breakthrough.

Well yeah, they are politicians! The key question to ask is on what basis did they think a deal was done.

If they had no basis then I agree with the view that they overplayed it.

If on the other hand, and based on the arrangements of press conferences, the fact the lunch was arranged to make a deal, numerous tweets etc, the more likely scenario is that May agreed to the deal and then was pulled back by the DUP and some in her party.

They got a bit overexcited for sure, but if May told them it was agreed then they were surely fine to expect that her word would carry some weight

ThisRegard · 04-12-2017 06:31PM

murphaph wrote: »

I wonder how she was expecting that phone call to go. I mean the DUP have been publicly rejecting this for days now. Ireland has been going on about the border for months. May doesn't hear.

Yeah, she's just got a harsh lesson in Northern Irish politics and its stubbornness.

blanch152 · 04-12-2017 06:31PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, not as revenge, we are going to veto it because the UK can not exit with no deal, the government over there will fall and the next lot will be more amenable.

Not necessarily true. The anger among the British public, misplaced though it would be, about their deal being vetoed by those upstart Irish may increase votes for the Tories.

Leroy42 · 04-12-2017 06:32PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Of course we can look for more than just the items listed on the GFA. But we have been crowing since the start about the need to protect the GFA. That has brought us to the point where the UK (with the backing of the DUP) are in a position to say that you can have what is in the GFA but nothing more at this stage. After all, that is the agreement all sides have signed up to.

Think about it, why would May or the DUP hand over more North-South co-operation than they are required to do by the GFA when it can be used in the trade talks as a bargaining chip?

Right so we are not only entitled to stick to what is in the GFA, the agreement can contain anything including all trade.

kravmaga · 04-12-2017 06:33PM

D.U.P. have scuppered the whole deal, Arlene Foster and her colleagues need to sort this disaster out.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 06:34PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Not necessarily true. The anger among the British public, misplaced though it would be, about their deal being vetoed by those upstart Irish may increase votes for the Tories.

Yes the DUP will fall further from grace (if that were possible) among the British public.

blanch152 · 04-12-2017 06:34PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Right so we are not only entitled to stick to what is in the GFA, the agreement can contain anything including all trade.

Yes, but that requires agreement.

An agreement can contain anything, but our argument to date has been that regardless of what the UK wants, we are entitled to what is in the GFA.

devnull · 04-12-2017 06:34PM

Leo has just said it's not his place to point blame but things broke down and become problematic during the lunch in Brussels. Thinly veiled digs at the DUP.

Also said that it's not his job to make sure all parts of the UK government are onside. We should take account of the DUP but they are not only party in NI they don't represent the majority of people in NI who voted to remain and GFA.

Itssoeasy · 04-12-2017 06:36PM

kravmaga wrote: »

DUP have scuppered the whole deal

Well them and about 20 conservative back benchers.

kowtow · 04-12-2017 06:36PM

If there is any change to the text now it will be flowery language to acknowledge that the neither the EU nor Ireland wants a border in the Irish sea, and tying down the areas of convergence even further by centering the whole thing even more on the GFA.

90% of what we are seeing now is jostling to claim a victory. The underlying reality, as seen in the text this morning, is that there was never going to be a hard border in the sense that most people understand it and that there will be regulatory equivalence at least in the areas identified by the GFA. That in itself is a great reassurance for us in Ireland.

Phase two is going to be the interesting one and that it actually the point at which Ireland's interests fall closer to those of the UK than those of the rest of the EU. That's where the fun will start.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 06:38PM

kowtow wrote: »

If there is any change to the text now it will be flowery language to acknowledge that the neither the EU nor Ireland wants a border in the Irish sea, and tying down the areas of convergence even further by centering the whole thing even more on the GFA.

90% of what we are seeing now is jostling to claim a victory. The underlying reality, as seen in the text this morning, is that there was never going to be a hard border in the sense that most people understand it and that there will be regulatory equivalence at least in the areas identified by the GFA. That in itself is a great reassurance for us in Ireland.

Phase two is going to be the interesting one and that it actually the point at which Ireland's interests fall closer to those of the UK than those of the rest of the EU. That's where the fun will start.

We are not going to phase two at the moment though.

solodeogloria · 04-12-2017 06:38PM

devnull wrote: »

Leo has just said it's not his place to point blame but things broke down and become problematic during the lunch in Brussels.

Thinly veiled dig at the DUP.

Good evening!

To be fair though. Two things seemed to go wrong with today.

The first one was that the Irish Government were proclaiming they had a deal before anyone was sure it was concrete. Then a number of MEPs exclaimed the same thing in Brussels. That's surely a communication failure.

The other one was that it seems like the British Government didn't even consult the DUP on what was being proposed in Brussels. That's worse I think. If you want to ensure that all things can be sorted surely resolving things directly with the DUP first is the way to go about it.

The problem is that although the wording was good for Dublin it wasn't good enough for the DUP. And yes, it is one of the most difficult balancing acts I've seen in a long time.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

ThisRegard · 04-12-2017 06:39PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Yes the DUP will fall further from grace (if that were possible) among the British public.

I'm sure many are still wondering who the hell the DUP are.

Mr.Nice Guy · 04-12-2017 06:40PM

Varadkar saying he's not open to changes to the wording that change the meaning. Good to hear. If he indicates a willingness to do so it's an invitation to dilute the process. The Irish government needs to hold its nerve and be firm on this.

Brexit discussion thread II

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