Brexit discussion thread II

ThisRegard · 04-12-2017 06:41PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

G

The first one was that the Irish Government were proclaiming they had a deal before anyone was sure it was concrete. Then a number of MEPs exclaimed the same thing in Brussels. That's surely a communication

No, communications were fine, it's all on May and her government.

Samaris · 04-12-2017 06:41PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

To be fair though. Two things seemed to go wrong with today.

The first one was that the Irish Government were proclaiming they had a deal before anyone was sure it was concrete. Then a number of MEPs exclaimed the same thing in Brussels. That's surely a communication failure.

All available evidence seems to indicate that there was a deal, and it was sure enough for it to be spoken about and then it fell apart around lunchtime.

I don't think this was a wild gloat, given how generally pessimistic everyone was.

devnull · 04-12-2017 06:42PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

The first one was that the Irish Government were proclaiming they had a deal before anyone was sure it was concrete. Then a number of MEPs exclaimed the same thing in Brussels. That's surely a communication failure.

There was a deal that was offered and agreed but they pulled back from it because of the DUP intervened over lunch.

kowtow · 04-12-2017 06:42PM

Interesting words from Varadkar, I don't think it was a slip as his approach actually has been calm and even handed.

It wasn't possible to move on, he said ... "as had been planned and as had been choreographed".

Says it all about so much of these negotiations!

Beechwoodspark · 04-12-2017 06:42PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

To be fair though. Two things seemed to go wrong with today.

The first one was that the Irish Government were proclaiming they had a deal before anyone was sure it was concrete. Then a number of MEPs exclaimed the same thing in Brussels. That's surely a communication failure.

The other one was that it seems like the British Government didn't even consult the DUP on what was being proposed in Brussels. That's worse I think. If you want to ensure that all things can be sorted surely resolving things directly with the DUP first is the way to go about it.

The problem is that although the wording was good for Dublin it wasn't good enough for the DUP. And yes, it is one of the most difficult balancing acts I've seen in a long time.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

The Irish govt have agreed to a much coveted solution for the brexiteer's border puzzle

Up to the brexiteers now to turn the screws on the dup so that they can agree the deal and stop wasting more precious time.

Much thanks(?!)
Bws

awec · 04-12-2017 06:43PM

This post has been deleted.

Neil3030 · 04-12-2017 06:43PM

I wouldn't rule out the DUP u-turning on an agreement for the simple reason that the Irish government announced that they were confident of an agreement.

Christy42 · 04-12-2017 06:45PM

kowtow wrote: »

If there is any change to the text now it will be flowery language to acknowledge that the neither the EU nor Ireland wants a border in the Irish sea, and tying down the areas of convergence even further by centering the whole thing even more on the GFA.

90% of what we are seeing now is jostling to claim a victory. The underlying reality, as seen in the text this morning, is that there was never going to be a hard border in the sense that most people understand it and that there will be regulatory equivalence at least in the areas identified by the GFA. That in itself is a great reassurance for us in Ireland.

Phase two is going to be the interesting one and that it actually the point at which Ireland's interests fall closer to those of the UK than those of the rest of the EU. That's where the fun will start.

If we get there. Or if we have serious time to actually negotiate in phase 2 after phase 1.

The UK government seems far too weak at this point. Given how quick even her own party was to rebel she seems to have little trust. The EU needs someone that can negotiate for the UK. Right now what can May reasonably offer that she can deliver on? She needs to work that out or else these could get excruciating.

Certainly the Irish government has issues but there is agreement about what sort of deal we want and so the Irish are going over confident in what they negotiate on and what their aims are.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 06:45PM

awec wrote: »

There is no way to resolve this to the satisfaction of the DUP, the UK, Ireland and the EU.

Someone is going to lose out.

The DUPs position is fairly intransigent, talking to them beforehand isn't going to change it. I would also say that in the grand scheme of things they are the least important piece of the puzzle.

Unless May did have an agreement with Forster as reported.
Things might not be too civil between them this evening. May looks an utter fool after today in fairness.

solodeogloria · 04-12-2017 06:46PM

ThisRegard wrote: »

No, communications were fine, it's all on May and her government.

Good evening!

Respectfully I disagree. There was not a peep out of Downing Street. That's what was wrong. There shouldn't have been any report to any media until both sides had stated there was a deal.

There was definitely a screwup between the Government and the DUP. Like them or lump them for as long as they are holding the Government together they needed to be involved and it needed to be satisfactory to them.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

cml387 · 04-12-2017 06:47PM

Neil3030 wrote: »

I wouldn't rule out the DUP u-turning on an agreement for the simple reason that the Irish government announced that they were confident of an agreement.

If this was the case then our side would have been wise to stfu until May and Junker announced it as a fait accompli.

It was RTE that broke the news of the deal on the table, and I don't think that helped matters.

kowtow · 04-12-2017 06:47PM

awec wrote: »

The DUPs position is fairly intransigent, talking to them beforehand isn't going to change it. I would also say that in the grand scheme of things they are the least important piece of the puzzle.

I'm not so sure, sooner or later Arlene Foster is going to be read a copy of the text and asked to explain exactly what she disagrees with.

It will be interesting to see detailed positions tonight from the harder Brexiteers who will no doubt face sharp questions in UK media.

Someone might have to change the font of the text, or the paragraph aligment, between now and later in the week so that the DUP can claim a real victory.

awec · 04-12-2017 06:47PM

This post has been deleted.

steddyeddy · 04-12-2017 06:48PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Sammy Wilson has called the Irish government a "bunch of political chancers."

This is a guy who backed a paramilitary group's plan to wipe out the Catholics from Ireland? May should be ashamed for bringing these sort of people into mainstream politics.

The DUP have essentially damaged the UK's place on the world stage and the economy of the UK.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 06:48PM

Jeremy not far off the mark.

'Brexit deal failure is result of grubby agreement between May and DUP'

The Labour leader has responded to the May-Juncker news conference:

“The real reason for today’s failure is the grubby deal the Government did with the DUP after the election.

“It is disappointing that there has not been progress in the Brexit negotiations after months of delays and grandstanding.

“Labour has been clear from the outset that we need a jobs first Brexit deal that works for the whole of the United Kingdom.

“Each passing day provides further evidence that Theresa May’s Government is completely ill-equipped to negotiate a successful Brexit deal for our country.”

kowtow · 04-12-2017 06:49PM

cml387 wrote: »

If this was the case then our side would have been wise to stfu until May and Junker announced it as a fait accompli.

It was RTE that broke the news of the deal on the table, and I don't think that helped matters.

I don't think we can really blame RTE or the Irish either.

This is how Donald Tusk began the day on twitter:

Tell me why I like Mondays! Encouraged after my phone call with Taoiseach @campaignforleo on progress on #Brexit issue of Ireland. Getting closer to sufficient progress at December #EUCO.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 06:50PM

awec wrote: »

I find this hard to believe tbh. I am skeptical Foster would be able to sell such a deal to her party members. Foster is actually relatively pragmatic but her party isn't and there's only so much clout she can wield. No way DUP members fall in line behind any such deal.

Well what in god's name was May trying to do? It doesn't make sense. Somebody pulled the rug at the last minute and the only rational explanation is a row in the DUP camp.
It would explain a rather shaky Foster in her hasty press conference.

Beechwoodspark · 04-12-2017 06:50PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

Respectfully I disagree. There was not a peep out of Downing Street. That's what was wrong. There shouldn't have been any report to any media until both sides had stated there was a deal.

There was definitely a screwup between the Government and the DUP. Like them or lump them for as long as they are holding the Government together they needed to be involved and it needed to be satisfactory to them.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

That's an internal uk matter. They need to turn the screws on the dup and backbenchers if they are intent on wasting ever more time

The Irish and EU have graciously agreed to a solution for the brexiteer border puzzle.

Now get on with it London and bring Arlene and her crazy gang to heel !! Time is ticking on

Much thanks(?!)
Bws

kowtow · 04-12-2017 06:52PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Jeremy not far off the mark.

Given that Corbyn has neither a clear position on Brexit, nor any chance of commanding a majority in the Commons this side of an election, those remarks are political opportunism - neither more nor less.

Irish politicians are doing a good job of staying together on this one in the National interest, perhaps Corbyn could pick up a hint or two from them.

steddyeddy · 04-12-2017 06:52PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Yes there is, according to the Irish government, but did you read the bit in the DUP statement about the Irish government trying to unilaterally extend the GFA?

I have posted the twelve items from the GFA previously.

Nobody wants what you are suggesting either, but Ireland may have overplayed its hand. We are only entitled to North-South co-operation on what is in the GFA.

Actually we're entitled to a veto. A border will harm the spirit of the GFA so that's what needs to happen.

Indestructable · 04-12-2017 06:52PM

I think Leo is playing a blinder. Keep it up, now isn't the time for any concessions

solodeogloria · 04-12-2017 06:53PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

That's an internal uk matter. They need to turn the screws on the dup and backbenchers if they are intent on wasting ever more time

The Irish and EU have graciously agreed to a solution for the brexiteer border puzzle.

Now get on with it London and bring Arlene and her crazy gang to heel !! Time is ticking on

Much thanks(?!)
Bws

Good evening!

It's also a media communication failure on the part of Dublin and Brussels. They should have never said anything until both sides stated such in a press release.

That's my point and it is an obvious one.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

devnull · 04-12-2017 06:56PM

Confirmed that there are Tory rebels now who won't agree to the deal in addition to the DUP.

Jayop · 04-12-2017 06:56PM

kowtow wrote: »

Given that Corbyn has neither a clear position on Brexit, nor any chance of commanding a majority in the Commons this side of an election, those remarks are political opportunism - neither more nor less.

Irish politicians are doing a good job of staying together on this one in the National interest, perhaps Corbyn could pick up a hint or two from them.

Irish politicians are staying together because there's a clear message and single purpose that everyone is able to get behind. There's no such thing from the English side at all, not even close. How Labour are supposed to row in behind the current farce is beyond me.

FreudianSlippers · 04-12-2017 06:56PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

It's also a media communication failure on the part of Dublin and Brussels. They should have never said anything until both sides stated such in a press release.

That's my point and it is an obvious one.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

It really isn't. A solution was promised for this morning, delivered late and agreed by Ireland/EU; there is no onus on Ireland/EU to ensure that the solution put forward by the UK was actually signed-off. One would be safe presuming that it was or ought to have been.

awec · 04-12-2017 06:57PM

This post has been deleted.

jobbridge4life · 04-12-2017 06:57PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

It's also a media communication failure on the part of Dublin and Brussels. They should have never said anything until both sides stated such in a press release.

That's my point and it is an obvious one.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

An obviously wrong one. The British Government presented an offer to which the Irish Government and in turn the EU27 could agree. There was a deal ready to be made. The only miss communication was the UK Goverment presenting an offer to which it could not agree. A monumental and mortifying mistake by the UK Government.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 06:58PM

awec wrote: »

I'd say the rogue tories are a bigger problem for May than the DUP.

Remember that she is fairly weak politically having faced questions about her leadership in the not too distant past, as well as all the "speculation" about Boris etc.

I think it is high time Theresa threw her hat at it.

The whole thing is stalled now. I can't see Dublin moving.

steddyeddy · 04-12-2017 06:59PM

devnull wrote: »

Leo has just said it's not his place to point blame but things broke down and become problematic during the lunch in Brussels. Thinly veiled digs at the DUP.

Also said that it's not his job to make sure all parts of the UK government are onside. We should take account of the DUP but they are not only party in NI they don't represent the majority of people in NI who voted to remain and GFA.

Exactly this. There are several parties in NI. Why do people assume a loyalist party represents the general views of Northern Ireland?

devnull · 04-12-2017 06:59PM

Andrew Rosindell, very hardline Eurosceptic MP has just said on Sky News that him and many others will not accept anything tht takes NI away from the rest of UK and the UK voted to leave the EU and they will not allow Northern Ireland to be seperated from the UK.

He also stated they don't want a hard border but not any price and if they try and divide up the agreement there will be a no deal that divides the UK up. If so they will fail.

Brexit discussion thread II

Comments