Brexit discussion thread II

flaneur · 04-12-2017 05:34PM

The question I would have is could the DUP selectively not support the UK Government on this and still support them on everything else?

They've done this on a few issues already and this isn't a vote of confidence in the PM or on the budget..

ArmaniJeanss · 04-12-2017 05:36PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Thing is, we heard before lunch the deal was done, the DUP threw a fit, and then it was off, conveniently there were now two different issues not agreed, so the DUP have played their cards well to date. Ensuring the Assembly gets a veto on any divergence from the rest of the UK and that the deal only applies to GFA issues would probably be enough to seal it, after all they are signed up to the GFA.

Aren't there 158 different issues or suchlike which come under GFA according to the ROI government, so presumably it could come down to individual items on the list that ROI want to remain on it but the DUP want off.

Personally I wouldn't want 20 years of a) new Brussels ruling b) Dublin says it's one that obviously needs to be applied in NI also c) DUP says it clearly doesn't come under the GFA clause d) various factions in London agree or disagree e) threats of border if agreement can't be reached f) impending crisis only sorted at last moment.

Really dislike the GFA-only covergence idea being floated.

Maybe that's what its heading to though.

Samaris · 04-12-2017 05:38PM

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Aren't there 158 different issues or suchlike which come under GFA according to the ROI government, so presumably it could come down individual items on the list that ROI want to remain on it but the DUP want off.

Personally I wouldn't want 20 years of a) new Brussels ruling b) Dublin says it's one that obviously needs to be applied in NI also c) DUP says it clearly doesn't come under the GFA clause d) various factions in London agree or disagree e) threats of border if agreement can't be reached f) impending crisis only sorted at last moment.

Really dislike the GFA-only covergence idea being floated though.

Maybe that's what its heading to though.

Yeah, I've been thinking much the same. It is setting up for numerous little squabbles and general messiness about it all. And other countries won't tolerate too much mucking around with regulations before they start to call foul through the WTO.

kowtow · 04-12-2017 05:40PM

The most notable thing today is the spinning of a "done deal" in Dublin, and I think in Brussels to some extent, the reporting of which went far beyond what was actually written [or at least what we have seen of] the single piece of text being circulated (the rte bit).

London was silent at all material times, apart from the band-wagon jumping from Scotland, Khan etc. who on the face of it hadn't actually read the text.

It leads me to wonder whether the exact same text couldn't be released tomorrow morning and claimed by London as a deal.

flaneur · 04-12-2017 05:44PM

There's absolutely no way that the EU would allow London to ride the NI deal. It's precisely what many people in Europe were afraid would happen if there was some kind of carving up of special arrangements.

Northern Ireland's going to be treated as a one-off, exceptional situation due to the extreme nature of the political setup in the region and the legacy of an international dispute and live hostilities.

I don't really think Scotland's going to be able to ride that deal either, and frankly I think it's a bit irresponsible of Sturgeon and Kahn to jump onto this. Northern Ireland's a very specific case due to the troubles and it's an ethnically and politically divided society that could spin into a very nasty situation if the GFA is undermined.

I've sympathy for Scotland's position in this, but I think any jumping into Northern Irish politics is a very dangerous thing to do.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 05:45PM

I would say one thing, the way May went about business today on behalf of the UK, you would want any agreement to be bolted down with 10 inch Hilti bolts.

Did it not dawn on her to run it all by the DUP first? What extra strife has she brought on herself with the antics today?

ThisRegard · 04-12-2017 05:48PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I would say one thing, the way May went about business today on behalf of the UK, you would want any agreement to be bolted down with 10 inch Hilti bolts.

Did it not dawn on her to run it all by the DUP first? What extra strife has she brought on herself with the antics today?

Tony Connelly gave the impression that it was during the lunch meeting when she went out to make the phone call and that's when things went pear shaped.

blanch152 · 04-12-2017 05:49PM

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Aren't there 158 different issues or suchlike which come under GFA according to the ROI government, so presumably it could come down to individual items on the list that ROI want to remain on it but the DUP want off.

Personally I wouldn't want 20 years of a) new Brussels ruling b) Dublin says it's one that obviously needs to be applied in NI also c) DUP says it clearly doesn't come under the GFA clause d) various factions in London agree or disagree e) threats of border if agreement can't be reached f) impending crisis only sorted at last moment.

Really dislike the GFA-only covergence idea being floated.

Maybe that's what its heading to though.

Yes there is, according to the Irish government, but did you read the bit in the DUP statement about the Irish government trying to unilaterally extend the GFA?

I have posted the twelve items from the GFA previously.

Nobody wants what you are suggesting either, but Ireland may have overplayed its hand. We are only entitled to North-South co-operation on what is in the GFA.

murphaph · 04-12-2017 05:49PM

Un1corn wrote: »

I dunno. I am not sure Corbyn can be elected. It is a bit of a mess over there at the minute. I couldn't vote for Labour or the Tories in good conscience.

It's either Corbyn or a Tory majority. The chances of the DUP holding the balance of power again are quite slim. Either result would see this mooted deal being a done one. The DUP have one bullet in the chamber and the gun is pointed at their own head. NI just isn't important enough to your average little Englander.

Leroy42 · 04-12-2017 05:51PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I would say one thing, the way May went about business today on behalf of the UK, you would want any agreement to be bolted down with 10 inch Hilti bolts.

Did it not dawn on her to run it all by the DUP first? What extra strife has she brought on herself with the antics today?

I was just thinking the exact same. There is a narrative starting that a deal was done only for Foster and the DUP to scupper it.

Well, if I was in Leos position, I would not be accepting anything except 100%, detailed written agreement. Positions, understandings, agreements in principle etc.

Worth nothing. May has no power and the situation can change based no whomever shouts the loudest it seems.

Leo should take a step back and ask May to come back when she does have the ability to deliver. We are in danger of getting screwed over in an attempt by everyone to save face. This is more important than that. We have already taken a massive one for the team over the bank bailout, time to stand up for ourselves over this outrageous position by the UK.

If they want to screw themselves then let them at it.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 05:53PM

Ireland holding firm could make the only solution the UK staying in the CU/SM

Panrich · 04-12-2017 05:53PM

Looks like the government were crowing a little early.

The leaks that have been a feature of the diplomacy to date might have backfired today.

kowtow · 04-12-2017 05:53PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I would say one thing, the way May went about business today on behalf of the UK, you would want any agreement to be bolted down with 10 inch Hilti bolts.

Did it not dawn on her to run it all by the DUP first? What extra strife has she brought on herself with the antics today?

I'm not sure she has brought any extra strife actually.

By remaining silent she's allowed the Irish & to some extent the UK press to broadcast a somewhat extreme 'agreement' and the DUP to shout it down in terms she wouldn't have dared use herself.

The only risk for May is that the DUP tail might appear to be wagging the dog but that isn't what the underlying text shows, unless there is something significant we haven't seen.

I think today's brinkmanship has probably bought her some extra room for maneuver on a text which on the face of it was never really a problem in the first place. The DUP hand grenade has given her perfect justification for falling back on a 'GFA' only convergence as others have said.

Zubeneschamali · 04-12-2017 05:53PM

blanch152 wrote: »

We are only entitled to North-South co-operation on what is in the GFA.

We are entitled to veto the UKs exit deal if we feel like it. Varadkar has laid out the terms very clearly - no hard border or we veto the deal, but we won't have to, because the EU won't make a deal we don't like.

blanch152 · 04-12-2017 05:56PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

We are entitled to veto the UKs exit deal if we feel like it. Varadkar has laid out the terms very clearly - no hard border or we veto the deal, but we won't have to, because the EU won't make a deal we don't like.

Of course we can veto the exit deal, but do we want to be in the position where we have to do that?

murphaph · 04-12-2017 05:56PM

ThisRegard wrote: »

Tony Connelly gave the impression that it was during the lunch meeting when she went out to make the phone call and that's when things went pear shaped.

I wonder how she was expecting that phone call to go. I mean the DUP have been publicly rejecting this for days now. Ireland has been going on about the border for months. May doesn't hear.

flaneur · 04-12-2017 05:58PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I would say one thing, the way May went about business today on behalf of the UK, you would want any agreement to be bolted down with 10 inch Hilti bolts.

Did it not dawn on her to run it all by the DUP first? What extra strife has she brought on herself with the antics today?

This is part of the problem, she really has no political authority to make any deals on behalf of the UK as the government is so dysfunctional.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 05:59PM

ThisRegard wrote: »

Tony Connelly gave the impression that it was during the lunch meeting when she went out to make the phone call and that's when things went pear shaped.

Not just Connelly saying that Laura Whatshername of the BBC said same thing.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 06:00PM

kowtow wrote: »

I'm not sure she has brought any extra strife actually.

Torrid time in parliament expected tonight if reports are to be believed.
AT the end of the day, they cannot progress.
Ball back in the UK court very firmly.

PeadarCo · 04-12-2017 06:00PM

Leroy42 wrote:

Worth nothing. May has no power and the situation can change based no whomever shouts the loudest it seems.

Is this not a problem for the whole Brexit process. We have seen harf brexiters come out with redlines last week. How can anyone negotiate with the UK government if the minute any agreement gets torn up the minute its done. There are so many competing factions within the UK and no one has control. Trade negotiations won't be any different. They will be worse. There are countless mole hills that can be turned into mountains.

As painful as another election might be the UK would be better off with one if it meant one side of the brexit debate (leave or remain) has control. At least its means Ireland and the EU and WTO partners know what the other side want. Even though unless they call an election before March they will be out of time if they aren't already.

murphaph · 04-12-2017 06:00PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Yes there is, according to the Irish government, but did you read the bit in the DUP statement about the Irish government trying to unilaterally extend the GFA?

I have posted the twelve items from the GFA previously.

Nobody wants what you are suggesting either, but Ireland may have overplayed its hand. We are only entitled to North-South co-operation on what is in the GFA.

It's a negotiation where we are on the stronger side (for once). There is huge goodwill towards Ireland and little towards the UK. Ireland should play as hard as it can now. If we still end up with a hard border we are not going to veto a trade deal as revenge because it harms us more than any other EU member. We can bluff till the end though and see if we get lucky.

Leroy42 · 04-12-2017 06:01PM

Originally Posted by blanch152 We are only entitled to North-South co-operation on what is in the GFA.

Why do you keep saying this. My understanding is that all sides agree that NI is different due to the historical facts and the operation of the GFA. Not sure why that limits either Ireland or the EU for looking at more than just the items listed on the GFA

04-12-2017 06:01PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I would say one thing, the way May went about business today on behalf of the UK, you would want any agreement to be bolted down with 10 inch Hilti bolts.

Did it not dawn on her to run it all by the DUP first? What extra strife has she brought on herself with the antics today?

it wasn't Theresa May that was claiming a deal had been done.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 06:03PM

Did the DUP welch on a deal at the last minute? Seems a reasonable view, given how it panned out. Cannot understand what May was at otherwise.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/937720289416409088?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.sky.com%2Fstory%2Flive-may-heads-for-crunch-talks-on-brexit-deal-11156136

Leroy42 · 04-12-2017 06:07PM

Aegir wrote: »

it wasn't Theresa May that was claiming a deal had been done.

DO you think that the Irish just made it all up, that press conferences were arranged and that tweets were sent from EU stating a deal was close for sh1t and giggles or just to put pressure on May?

To what end. Everyone can see that the pressure is already on May. She was coming to the lunch to get a deal. Why would the EU then pretend there was one if there wasn't.

Many reports are coming out with the view that a deal was done, but that Foster then refused. I assume the PM of the UK felt she had the authority to make a deal but Foster let her know afterwards that she didn't.

I think this really only looks bad for May. No matter what the UK agree to during this, or any other part of the talks, the EU will surely now request that May get approval from Parliament as otherwise it means nothing

Zubeneschamali · 04-12-2017 06:07PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Of course we can veto the exit deal, but do we want to be in the position where we have to do that?

No.

But it's better than signing off on a hard border.

FrancieBrady · 04-12-2017 06:09PM

Leo to speak at 5.15pm apparently.

Zubeneschamali · 04-12-2017 06:11PM

murphaph wrote: »

If we still end up with a hard border we are not going to veto a trade deal as revenge because it harms us more than any other EU member.

No, not as revenge, we are going to veto it because the UK can not exit with no deal, the government over there will fall and the next lot will be more amenable.

Blowfish · 04-12-2017 06:13PM

Panrich wrote: »

Looks like the government were crowing a little early.

The leaks that have been a feature of the diplomacy to date might have backfired today.

I wouldn't say that, pressure has shifted away from Ireland as Irelands reaction showed that a deal is possible. Even in the UK press the narrative is now that it's the DUP who are preventing progression, talk of the 'Irish Veto' has quietened a bit.

kowtow · 04-12-2017 06:15PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

DO you think that the Irish just made it all up, that press conferences were arranged and that tweets were sent from EU stating a deal was close for sh1t and giggles or just to put pressure on May?

I think the text which was in front of MEP's was leaked left right and centre and certainly plenty of people were keen to get in front of the microphone and announce that a deal had been done, even as the vital convergence vs divergence words were being changed.

May's critics were tweeting joyously earlier that London's "silence" this morning was evidence that she had been forced to give in to the "EU demands".

Brexit discussion thread II

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