Brexit discussion thread II

Samaris · 02-12-2017 12:05AM

blackcard wrote: »

Really surprised to see Donald Tusk come out so strongly today behind Ireland. Very hard for the EU to flip back from a veto being given to Ireland. Tbh I would like us to use whatever power we have in getting a favourable trade deal with the UK rather than have a frictionless border with the mysogenists in the DUP. Whatever powers we have, we can only use once.

It was already impossible for the EU to flip on Ireland having the veto - it is part and parcel of how it works. There was never a question of Ireland having the veto, it was more if it was going to be made politically uncomfortable for them to do so, and there was never even a hint of that from the position of the EU Commission or any other EU leader in all the months since the three questions were posed. The EU has stood with Ireland, to make it as little of Ireland vs Britain as possible. I wasn't surprised at Tusk speaking so strongly - the real end-goal is Ireland not to have to use its veto, which we didn't want to have to do (the least poisoning of the air between RoI and GB, the better). But this is also more important than just trade (although how trade will work for both countries also depends on it), Northern Ireland was one of the great successes of the EU project. A major help was that money that came through the EU aimed at prosperity and reconciliation projects was seen as neutral in a way that even American money was not (dollars had a nationalist bias). It is not in Europe's interests to see a peace treaty broken in Northern Ireland after twenty years of relative peace.

Ireland is badly exposed, not just economically, but socially. A hard border would be devastating to the Republic's economy, even before we get to the social tensions around a war that still could flare up again. So this is a red line and was going to be kept as one. This also unifies the EU, and rallying around a small country getting pressured by a larger one is bang on the underlying goals of the organisation and the optics reflect it in technicolour. Bar Britain being stubbornly incoherent long enough to fall off the edge of the cliff, the EU has nothing to lose by backing Ireland and a lot to lose by abandoning us.

Nate--IRL-- · 02-12-2017 12:05AM

MBSnr wrote: »

Not entirely sure what you mean by "comment sections" but a site that seems to deal mostly with UK politics and is, to me pretty, much evenly divided between Leavers and Remainers is https://forums.digitalspy.com/categories/politics

Some interesting reading, factual detail (esp regarding WTO trade etc from a poster called sangreal) and the odd laugh from the comments.

Plenty of Irish posters there that are giving an insight in to things Irish, especially a perspective on Brexit from another country.

Interestingly the Leavers have become far less active on there since Brexit started to unravel....

There are others in the UK which a google search will find, much like politics.ie, but seem rather dull in comparison...

That Forum pretty much mirrors another UK forum I frequent (OCUK). Most of the Brexiters have gone very quiet lately as Project Reality sinks in. Those that do still post display an impressive capacity for cognitive dissonance as the facts, as they see them, change constantly.

Nate

Water John · 02-12-2017 12:14AM

But what Tusk said was, 'Ireland you won't need to use your veto. Just discuss with us your bottom line and it becomes the EU bottom line'.

road_high · 02-12-2017 12:21AM

Thargor wrote: »

Im lovng this turn of events tbh, rubbing Paisley Jrs face in it

Hopefully now the reality turns out as much...

MBSnr · 02-12-2017 12:24AM

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

That Forum pretty much mirrors another UK forum I frequent (OCUK). Most of the Brexiters have gone very quiet lately as Project Reality sinks in. Those that do still post display an impressive capacity for cognitive dissonance as the facts, as they see them, change constantly.

Nate

That's the weird thing. The Leave posters aren't idiots at all (no more than the Remainers), but the opinions they submit are not based on much fact, just personal ill informed opinion

I know a number of Leavers (Irish family in the UK [bizarrely] and a good few acquaintances) and they are not in any means stupid people. However their views are strangely skewed and they voted Leave for a myriad of reasons, but in talking to them, it would appear that they took their 'information' on Brexit solely from the right wing media. An aunt from Ireland and an Australian (with a Danish passport) voted Leave due to too many immigrants... Go figure the irony.

I was mentioning to a few people over there when visiting last summer, that the border would be an issue and it was completely dismissed as the fella living in Ireland talking sh-1-te

road_high · 02-12-2017 12:26AM

Jim2007 wrote: »

So as a Swiss, tell me why we should accept the UK in to EFTA and have them kick up dust for a few years, only to have them move off in a few years in any case when it suits them. On top of which given their size they would totally change the balance of the organization.

We are not members of the EEA, but EFTA is a valuable part of our trade strategy and I see no reason to accept it's destruction for the sake of the U.K. for a few years. I expect we'll veto the idea if we have to vote on such an idea.

I can totally understand. The EU has had 40 years of this carry on, changing and bending the curvature to suit the UK. Opt outs at every juncture.
The EFTA works well for smaller, willing nations that have some buy in into the concept of Europe. I wouldn't want them anywhere near it if I was Switz or Norway.

FrancieBrady · 02-12-2017 12:30AM

Water John wrote: »

But what Tusk said was, 'Ireland you won't need to use your veto. Just discuss with us your bottom line and it becomes the EU bottom line'.

I can't help feeling that 'okay, we won't rule out regularity divergence' us going to be the fudge. And Leo and Simon will accept it.

blackcard · 02-12-2017 12:39AM

Samaris wrote: »

blackcard wrote: »

Really surprised to see Donald Tusk come out so strongly today behind Ireland. Very hard for the EU to flip back from a veto being given to Ireland. Tbh I would like us to use whatever power we have in getting a favourable trade deal with the UK rather than have a frictionless border with the mysogenists in the DUP. Whatever powers we have, we can only use once.

It was already impossible for the EU to flip on Ireland having the veto - it is part and parcel of how it works. There was never a question of Ireland having the veto, it was more if it was going to be made politically uncomfortable for them to do so, and there was never even a hint of that from the position of the EU Commission or any other EU leader in all the months since the three questions were posed. The EU has stood with Ireland, to make it as little of Ireland vs Britain as possible. I wasn't surprised at Tusk speaking so strongly - the real end-goal is Ireland not to have to use its veto, which we didn't want to have to do (the least poisoning of the air between RoI and GB, the better). But this is also more important than just trade (although how trade will work for both countries also depends on it), Northern Ireland was one of the great successes of the EU project. A major help was that money that came through the EU aimed at prosperity and reconciliation projects was seen as neutral in a way that even American money was not (dollars had a nationalist bias). It is not in Europe's interests to see a peace treaty broken in Northern Ireland after twenty years of relative peace.

Ireland is badly exposed, not just economically, but socially. A hard border would be devastating to the Republic's economy, even before we get to the social tensions around a war that still could flare up again. So this is a red line and was going to be kept as one. This also unifies the EU, and rallying around a small country getting pressured by a larger one is bang on the underlying goals of the organisation and the optics reflect it in technicolour. Bar Britain being stubbornly incoherent long enough to fall off the edge of the cliff, the EU has nothing to lose by backing Ireland and a lot to lose by abandoning us.

I don't remember the EU standing firmly behind us when a decision had to be made on who would pick up the tab for the debts of banks in 2010. Let's be honest. Ireland is a minor player in all of this. If people in the UK struggle to identify where the border between the UK and Ireland is, you would be lucky to find 1% of of the EU to identify where the border is.

steddyeddy · 02-12-2017 12:40AM

nice_guy80 wrote: »

never forget that NI voted to remain
DUP don't really have a mandate on the Brexit issue

But everytime they're on TV over here they speak like they're speaking for everyone Northern Ireland.

Akrasia · 02-12-2017 12:43AM

blackcard wrote: »

I don't remember the EU standing firmly behind us when a decision had to be made on who would pick up the tab for the debts of banks in 2010. Let's be honest. Ireland is a minor player in all of this. If people in the UK struggle to identify where the border between the UK and Ireland is, you would be lucky to find 1% of of the EU to identify where the border is.

Its about pecking order. Back then we were behind german banks. Now we're ahead of treasonous Brits

Sand · 02-12-2017 12:46AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I can't help feeling that 'okay, we won't rule out regularity divergence' us going to be the fudge. And Leo and Simon will accept it.

If that's the case though, that will be an Irish decision, with direct recompense to the Irish electorate. We cant blame the EU if our government blinks when there is some friendly pressure on a red line issue.

Ultimately though, we can take some comfort. The Irish-UK border will be an EU-UK border, and the EU and the UK must enforce WTO norms. If either the UK or the EU simply ignore the border, then they both must ignore all borders under WTO most favoured nations rules. The EU recognises the insanity of a border that has more crossing points than the EU border between the north of Finland and the Black Sea. Worst case scenario, we will be able to secure EU assistance on enforcing that border until the current UK Tory/Brexit junta collapses and a relatively sane (well, Corbynista at least) UK government stages a democratic coup.

Sand · 02-12-2017 12:52AM

blackcard wrote: »

I don't remember the EU standing firmly behind us when a decision had to be made on who would pick up the tab for the debts of banks in 2010. Let's be honest. Ireland is a minor player in all of this. If people in the UK struggle to identify where the border between the UK and Ireland is, you would be lucky to find 1% of of the EU to identify where the border is.

Well there has to be some realism. Believe me, I recall where Ireland stood in the priorities at that time. However, I would point out that the 'hardliners' were essentially Trichet's ECB (subscribing to an EU federalist 'shock doctrine') who tried to create the biggest possible Eurozone crisis to force a federal response. The EU as a whole was largely - if uselessly (lets not forget the incredibly pointless Fiscal Compact) - sympathetic towards the PIIGS. And the lack of solidarity was not one way: Greece in particular seemed more intent on comparing 2011-12 Germany to 1933-45 Nazis than finding some sort of common ground.

Once Trichet and his cohort of fanatics were disposed of, the ECB suddenly found the tools to 'solve' the crisis. Funny that.

MBSnr · 02-12-2017 12:58AM

blackcard wrote: »

I don't remember the EU standing firmly behind us when a decision had to be made on who would pick up the tab for the debts of banks in 2010. Let's be honest. Ireland is a minor player in all of this. If people in the UK struggle to identify where the border between the UK and Ireland is, you would be lucky to find 1% of of the EU to identify where the border is.

As I posted on another forum - I'd trust the EU, in this instance, more than the DUP or the Tories.

Leonard Hofstadter · 02-12-2017 01:06AM

Say what you want about Varadkar and the way he handled Frances FitzGearld and us nearly having an election this week, but himself and Coveney are really playing a blinder on the European stage.

To get that kind of a commitment out of Tusk for a country with only the population of Greater Manchester is no mean achievement. If you think about it, even when the UK is gone we're still only going to be 1% of the EU's population yet we're one of the three things the UK must address to our satisfaction before we move to stage two.

So much for the EU being 'undemocratic' and not listening to the concerns of smaller member states! Also shows the benefit of us of having a pro-European sentiment and us historically having a positive track record in terms of building alliances in Europe and just basically trying to get our hands dirty and get stuck into making the EU work for us and other countries rather than the UK's historic semi-detached approach and all the opt-outs and special statuses etc.

Kermit.de.frog · 02-12-2017 01:09AM

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/936644971372929024

https://twitter.com/donaldtusk/status/936648747630592000

Water John · 02-12-2017 01:10AM

An analysis of the Tribes of Europe shows that Federalists are the smallest of the six groups. I would say less than 8% would be Federalist in Ireland.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42108806

So our pro EU stance is a tempered one. Shown also by previous Referendums.
I too, am a Contented European.

Most importantly though is EU Rejecters only total 14%.
Very clever survey.

ArthurDayne · 02-12-2017 01:15AM

Regardless of what transpires from here onwards, hasn't it been profoundly sad to see the attitudes this whole debacle has evoked in the UK? The nasty sneering attitude towards the small nation of Ireland merely standing up for its own interests, the resurrection of Unionist paranoia towards those south of the border who apparently constantly dream of ever more dastardly ways to wage a Papist genocide against Ulster Protestants, the old destructive enmity between Europe's former imperial powers being resurrected. Shame on those who have set out to undermine a political union which stood as a shining beacon to the world, however imperfect, that from the ashes of the most destructive war in history can rise a peaceful new form of globalism and supranational cooperation.

Having said all that, the Brexiteers gleefully foretold the domino effect of Project Nostalgia and the collapse of the European Union in the wake of Brexit. Interestingly, the EU has rarely looked so united, while I -- as a de jure British citizen -- have never felt as European as I do now.

blackcard · 02-12-2017 01:17AM

Akrasia wrote: »

blackcard wrote: »

I don't remember the EU standing firmly behind us when a decision had to be made on who would pick up the tab for the debts of banks in 2010. Let's be honest. Ireland is a minor player in all of this. If people in the UK struggle to identify where the border between the UK and Ireland is, you would be lucky to find 1% of of the EU to identify where the border is.

Its about pecking order. Back then we were behind german banks. Now we're ahead of treasonous Brits

Do you think if you went to Rome, Madrid, Hamburg, Toulouse, Porto, or any European city, and asked to name to identify any issues affecting the EU, they would name Ireland as an issue. We are a tiny country at the periphery of Europe and are going to be sacrificed for the overall good.

Kermit.de.frog · 02-12-2017 01:24AM

ArthurDayne wrote: »

Regardless of what transpires from here onwards, hasn't it been profoundly sad to see the attitudes this whole debacle has evoked in the UK? The nasty sneering attitude towards the small nation of Ireland merely standing up for its own interests, the resurrection of Unionist paranoia towards those south of the border who apparently constantly dream of ever more dastardly ways to wage a Papist genocide against Ulster Protestants, the old destructive enmity between Europe's former imperial powers being resurrected. Shame on those who have set out to undermine a political union which stood as a shining beacon to the world, however imperfect, that from the ashes of the most destructive war in history can rise a peaceful new form of globalism and supranational cooperation.

Having said all that, the Brexiteers gleefully foretold the domino effect of Project Nostalgia and the collapse of the European Union in the wake of Brexit. Interestingly, the EU has rarely looked so united, while I -- as a de jure British citizen -- have never felt as European as I do now.

Thank this guy and his merry band of followers. In fact EVERY time the next balls up with Brexit occurs i'm just going to post this picture.

ThisRegard · 02-12-2017 01:32AM

blackcard wrote: »

Do you think if you went to Rome, Madrid, Hamburg, Toulouse, Porto, or any European city, and asked to name to identify any issues affecting the EU, they would name Ireland as an issue. We are a tiny country at the periphery of Europe and are going to be sacrificed for the overall good.

You give very little credit to Europeans as to their awareness of major EU issues.

Water John · 02-12-2017 01:33AM

That laughing clown, met Bannon this week in London. Another clown, Rees Mogg met Bannon too.

Call me Al · 02-12-2017 01:42AM

blackcard wrote: »

Do you think if you went to Rome, Madrid, Hamburg, Toulouse, Porto, or any European city, and asked to name to identify any issues affecting the EU, they would name Ireland as an issue. We are a tiny country at the periphery of Europe and are going to be sacrificed for the overall good.

The majority are far more considered than you appear to give them credit for.

Sand · 02-12-2017 01:44AM

blackcard wrote: »

Do you think if you went to Rome, Madrid, Hamburg, Toulouse, Porto, or any European city, and asked to name to identify any issues affecting the EU, they would name Ireland as an issue. We are a tiny country at the periphery of Europe and are going to be sacrificed for the overall good.

The problem is blackcard, you think you are cynical, but you're not cynical enough. Do you think a random passerby on the streets of Rome, Madrid , Hamburg, Toulouse, Porto or any European city determines the priorities of the EU? The EU elite, personified in this cased by Donald Tusk, do and they are signalling very loudly and very clearly that they stand with Ireland.

There is no climb down for them from the stances they have taken regardless of what the average person on the street thinks or knows about Ireland.

Professor Moriarty · 02-12-2017 01:50AM

Water John wrote: »

An analysis of the Tribes of Europe shows that Federalists are the smallest of the six groups. I would say less than 8% would be Federalist in Ireland.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42108806

So our pro EU stance is a tempered one. Shown also by previous Referendums.
I too, am a Contented European.

Most importantly though is EU Rejecters only total 14%.
Very clever survey.

Good to be in a minority. Ich bin ein Federalist.

ArthurDayne · 02-12-2017 02:06AM

Sand wrote: »

The problem is blackcard, you think you are cynical, but you're not cynical enough. Do you think a random passerby on the streets of Rome, Madrid , Hamburg, Toulouse, Porto or any European city determines the priorities of the EU? The EU elite, personified in this cased by Donald Tusk, do and they are signalling very loudly and very clearly that they stand with Ireland.

There is no climb down for them from the stances they have taken regardless of what the average person on the street thinks or knows about the Ireland.

Agreed, and I would add the point that it might be shortsighted to look at Ireland as being an exception to some apparent rule that the EU is made up of large nations. There are 25 other member states beyond the truly big players of Germany, the UK and France. Italy and one or two others could be said to form a second tier of sorts. In other words, the majority of the EU is made up of small nations and the EU as a collective will not be willing to countenance the idea of shafting one of its small nations by simple virtue of the fact that it is small.

If anything, events over the past few weeks have emphasised how our standing in the world has actually dramatically increased. Where once we were a generally powerless plaything in the British sphere of influence, we now find ourselves in a position where we hold the balance of power. It is a remarkable moment.

Atlantic Dawn · 02-12-2017 02:09AM

Can people not jaysus t'a fook not bloody to sense understand that once the UK are not in the single market that ROI will be 100% responsible for securing the EU border as per Lisbon Treaty. We are being led astray by Irish government official muppets thinking we are thick.

Panrich · 02-12-2017 02:18AM

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Can people not jaysus t'a fook not bloody to sense understand that once the UK are not in the single market that ROI will be 100% responsible for securing the EU border as per Lisbon Treaty. We are being led astray by Irish government official muppets thinking we are thick.

I'd hope that's the drink talking.

Junkyard Tom · 02-12-2017 02:19AM

I'm worried about nationalists, like the large number of people in my extended family, on the other side of the non-border.

A lot of Unionists don't like what the GFA has 'done to them' and see nationalist parity/equality, the soft unification of Ireland, and the 'greening' of the north as an existential threat to their beloved, if unrequited, union.

Mr.Nice Guy · 02-12-2017 03:28AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I can't help feeling that 'okay, we won't rule out regularity divergence' us going to be the fudge. And Leo and Simon will accept it.

Agreed. The real crunch moment is yet to come and will put to the test how far the EU will back Ireland if/when the UK government try to fob us off with a vague wishy washy plan on regulatory convergence being some sort of devolved power for Stormont.

Junkyard Tom · 02-12-2017 03:44AM

steddyeddy wrote: »

But everytime they're on TV over here they speak like they're speaking for everyone Northern Ireland.

'The Right Honourable Imperial Lord Lieutenant of all Ulster' Arlene Foster.

The DUP are irredeemable.

Brexit discussion thread II

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