Brexit discussion thread II

Beechwoodspark · 30-11-2017 10:47PM

Even if the dup pull out of their deal with the Tories I predict the uk will respect the GFA

ThisRegard · 30-11-2017 10:49PM

Listening to Paisley over the last few days and now on Prime Time they're going to throw the whole tool box into the works when it comes into any agreement on the border.

Enzokk · 30-11-2017 10:55PM

Water John wrote: »

Ian Paisley Jnr. Debating with Michael Creed on Prime Time. Think I'll give that a miss. Sorry, Michael you drew the short straw on that. Did well on BBC 2 last night.

More of the same really, the UK doesn't want a border and Ireland doesn't want a border so there is no need for a border. But they don't want to be part of the customs union and want to negotiate their own trade deals that will be beneficial to not only the UK but Ireland as well (somehow).

I guess the Brexiteers have a point, if you don't want something you just have to repeat it over and over and it will happen.

Edited to add: This reminds me very much of Daniel Hannan who repeatedly said no-one was talking about leaving the single market before the Brexit vote or threatening to leave. After the vote and all of a sudden Brexit does mean leaving. In the end there will be a border unless NI or the UK stays in the customs union.

Infini · 30-11-2017 11:01PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

I honestly don't know why people keep repeating "this was an advisory referendum" as if it makes a difference. Repeatedly during the referendum the electorate were told that the Government were going to listen and act according to what the people said.

Britain is a democracy. It isn't a technocratic nation of Platonic style "philosopher kings" who somehow decree what is best for the people without recourse to them. I'm thankful that the UK is a country that hears and delivers.

It seems that most people irrespective of whether or not they are remainers or leavers agree. The difficult task of leaving is before us. I think May has done a much better job of Brexit than anyone on either side of the house would have done. Bar maybe someone like Amber Rudd. I personally wouldn't want to see Boris Johnson or Jacob Rees Mogg steering the ship.

The thing is - despite the pontificating we see on this thread David Cameron did the right thing by calling this referendum. The European question was the pressure cooker of British politics. John Major left Maastricht without a referendum. Blair and Brown left the UK without referenda on substantial treaty change. Decades of unresolved tension. He also did the right thing by saying the UK would act on the result. May did the right thing by taking it forward.

Democracy in the UK would have lost its integrity otherwise. I personally can't really believe that some people think that bottling this result would lead to a good outcome. It would lead to huge protest and increasing tensions as the people weren't listened to.

The UK needs closure on this issue and it is getting it. I'm thankful for that.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

There wont be closure on the issue as the issue by definition is toxic. Many of the problem's blamed on the EU by the british media come from toerag publications like the Daily Fail and The Shítpost Express. If the UK leaves theyll just blamed all the problems caused by Brexit on the EU and this all starts over again only this time your government only gets take it or leave it terms instead of being able to actually negotiate.

I've watched this whole thing unfold and as far as I can see its a national disaster. The "Leavers" won by lying outright aka the bullshít on the side of the bus. Some people were obviously unhappy with the way the EU was being run and I would have agreed with them. The debt crisis was handled badly and the way greece's people were thrown under the bus certainly didnt help as they were basically acting against the very people who empowered them. The migrant crisis was handled badly too its just not possible to take in that many people at once. Honestly these factors didnt help but the UK should be there kicking the EU's behind to get its act together not throwing itself off an economic cliff to satify the village idiots who have no coherent or solid argument based on FACT and not beliefs.

Lets not forget an entire generation of younger people who generally arent idiots who are basically gonna be left behind over this, if I was there I'd be pissed at the whole country myself as it would be to my detriment.

The DUP are propping this fiasco up but they're not representative of their own province (majority voted remain) and lack even the political courage to at least step aside when they messed up and refuse to accept fact that doesnt suit them (Arlene refused to resign or step aside over blowing millions of taxpayers cash yet despite what might be said of our previous Tanaiste when push came to shove she DID resign for the sake of the country and prevent an election at a sensitive and important time rather than take everyone down.) With all this going on they're trying to strongarm their way around Westminster and not even bother getting thing's back up and running in their own province.

My honest opinion is that I hope this fiasco falls apart when reality wear's down the fools who think this is a good idea and exposes them as liars, idiots and time waster's trading a superior deal and conditions for a far inferior and pathetic one and FACTS, actual FACTS and not sensationalist bullshít show people that staying is the better option and fighting foolish decisions being made in the EU and reforming it is far better than simply walking away and making things worse off for everyone inside and outside of Britain.

Water John · 30-11-2017 11:23PM

Watching Sammy Wilson on TV, standing on an Irish hillside, in the bitter cold, warning the UK Govn't. Would be very cold, having him do it, in the nip. Oh memories.

Vronsky · 30-11-2017 11:28PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Vronsky wrote: »

It's evening time in the USA though

The world spins the other way. It is evening in Russia,

My mistake. It's not just Solo that get time zones mixed up.

steddyeddy · 30-11-2017 11:31PM

The fact that the DUP are kicking off so much lately leads me to think that a special status for NI is being proposed.

solodeogloria · 30-11-2017 11:33PM

Infini wrote: »

There wont be closure on the issue as the issue by definition is toxic. Many of the problem's blamed on the EU by the british media come from toerag publications like the Daily Fail and The Shítpost Express. If the UK leaves theyll just blamed all the problems caused by Brexit on the EU and this all starts over again only this time your government only gets take it or leave it terms instead of being able to actually negotiate.

I've watched this whole thing unfold and as far as I can see its a national disaster. The "Leavers" won by lying outright aka the bullshít on the side of the bus. Some people were obviously unhappy with the way the EU was being run and I would have agreed with them. The debt crisis was handled badly and the way greece's people were thrown under the bus certainly didnt help as they were basically acting against the very people who empowered them. The migrant crisis was handled badly too its just not possible to take in that many people at once. Honestly these factors didnt help but the UK should be there kicking the EU's behind to get its act together not throwing itself off an economic cliff to satify the village idiots who have no coherent or solid argument based on FACT and not beliefs.

Lets not forget an entire generation of younger people who generally arent idiots who are basically gonna be left behind over this, if I was there I'd be pissed at the whole country myself as it would be to my detriment.

The DUP are propping this fiasco up but they're not representative of their own province (majority voted remain) and lack even the political courage to at least step aside when they messed up and refuse to accept fact that doesnt suit them (Arlene refused to resign or step aside over blowing millions of taxpayers cash yet despite what might be said of our previous Tanaiste when push came to shove she DID resign for the sake of the country and prevent an election at a sensitive and important time rather than take everyone down.) With all this going on they're trying to strongarm their way around Westminster and not even bother getting thing's back up and running in their own province.

My honest opinion is that I hope this fiasco falls apart when reality wear's down the fools who think this is a good idea and exposes them as liars, idiots and time waster's trading a superior deal and conditions for a far inferior and pathetic one and FACTS, actual FACTS and not sensationalist bullshít show people that staying is the better option and fighting foolish decisions being made in the EU and reforming it is far better than simply walking away and making things worse off for everyone inside and outside of Britain.

Good evening!

Again, there's not a lot of citations in your post. I understand there's a great deal of feeling about Brexit but let's focus on some of the particulars in your post.

I agree that there were a number of claims that simply shouldn't have been made by Brexit. The bus claim should have been much clearer to say something like the money that comes back from Brussels should be used for priorities like the NHS. I also agree that some of the pamphlets regarding Turkey's borders with Syria and Iraq weren't helpful. The Leave campaign did make a broad case for taking back control of borders, laws, money and trade policy.

It's worth pointing out that we also received rather extreme prophecies of doom from the remain campaign that didn't come to pass. We didn't see a property crash. We didn't see a recession in 2017 and we probably won't see it at all. George Osborne encouraged his mates from all over to prophecy the apocalypse both in the long term and in the immediate aftermath of the referendum. He was wrong. I don't believe the melodramatic prophecies of "running off a cliff" for this reason. What we've seen is a lot more tame. Uncertainty has led to subdued economic growth. As clarity is given the signs indicate growth and not decline. I'm under thirty and I just want to get on with Brexit. I don't know what your definition of young is.

On the DUP: Firstly you can't blame them for taking advantage of Westminster arithmetic. Secondly, you can't really blame them for highlighting legitimate concerns that unionists have about a sea border undermining the integrity of the union. You might disagree with unionism but this doesn't mean that their position is illegitimate. David Trimble (from the more moderate UUP) has an article in The Spectator highlighting his concerns. The problem of the 2017 election for Northern Ireland in terms of full balance are twofold. Firstly Sinn Féin don't sit and as a result can't affect what occurs in parliament. Secondly Sinn Féin has taken support away from more moderate nationalists in the form of the SDLP. Northern Ireland is unhelpfully polarised and quite frankly I don't fully get the point of abstentionism on the part of Sinn Féin in any case.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

VinLieger · 30-11-2017 11:36PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

The fact that the DUP are kicking off so much lately leads me to think that a special status for NI is being proposed.

Just imagine the salty tears if this brought down a tory government.

kowtow · 30-11-2017 11:36PM

I think it's important to remember that whatever noise the DUP might be making there are plenty of mainstream conservatives who would withdraw support from the government on the strength of a foreign power seeking to impose an economic border within the United kingdom.

The DUP may be doing Theresa May a favour here and drawing some fire away from her but imposing a customs union on one part of the UK won't fly.

It may well be possible to find a form of words which maintains regulatory equivalence until such time as a satisfactory electronic border can be implemented to mutual satisfaction. After all there is still a transition period to get through and regulatory equivalence is what we have already.

Any customs union solution will have to leave the whole of the UK free to make its own trade agreements outside the EU.

I suspect there will be some financial incentive from the UK to Ireland to help implement future arrangements and perhaps additional priority treatment on the UK land bridge.

My sense is that they are actually closer to an agreement here than the rhetoric suggests but everyone must have their shot at the limelight, even the DUP.

Panrich · 30-11-2017 11:40PM

kowtow wrote: »

I think it's important to remember that whatever noise the DUP might be making there are plenty of mainstream conservatives who would withdraw support from the government on the strength of a foreign power seeking to impose an economic border within the United kingdom.

The DUP may be doing Theresa May a favour here and drawing some fire away from her but imposing a customs union on one part of the UK won't fly.

It may well be possible to find a form of words which maintains regulatory equivalence until such time as a satisfactory electronic border can be implemented to mutual satisfaction. After all there is still a transition period to get through and regulatory equivalence is what we have already.

Any customs union solution will have to leave the whole of the UK free to make its own trade agreements outside the EU.

I suspect there will be some financial incentive from the UK to Ireland to help implement future arrangements and perhaps additional priority treatment on the UK land bridge.

My sense is that they are actually closer to an agreement here than the rhetoric suggests but everyone must have their shot at the limelight, even the DUP.

Unless our government totally capitulates, I can't see that an agreement can be close.

Water John · 30-11-2017 11:40PM

No doubt NIs position is in the debate. Nigel Dodds pushing hard on confidence and Supply Agreement.

Anthracite · 30-11-2017 11:43PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

I honestly don't know why people keep repeating "this was an advisory referendum" as if it makes a difference. Repeatedly during the referendum the electorate were told that the Government were going to listen and act according to what the people said.

Britain is a democracy. It isn't a technocratic nation of Platonic style "philosopher kings" who somehow decree what is best for the people without recourse to them. I'm thankful that the UK is a country that hears and delivers.

It seems that most people irrespective of whether or not they are remainers or leavers agree. The difficult task of leaving is before us. I think May has done a much better job of Brexit than anyone on either side of the house would have done. Bar maybe someone like Amber Rudd. I personally wouldn't want to see Boris Johnson or Jacob Rees Mogg steering the ship.

The thing is - despite the pontificating we see on this thread David Cameron did the right thing by calling this referendum. The European question was the pressure cooker of British politics. John Major left Maastricht without a referendum. Blair and Brown left the UK without referenda on substantial treaty change. Decades of unresolved tension. He also did the right thing by saying the UK would act on the result. May did the right thing by taking it forward.

Democracy in the UK would have lost its integrity otherwise. I personally can't really believe that some people think that bottling this result would lead to a good outcome. It would lead to huge protest and increasing tensions as the people weren't listened to.

The UK needs closure on this issue and it is getting it. I'm thankful for that.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Is this the bit where we elide 'leave the EU' (the actual vote) into 'leave the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union'?

The Rape of Lucretia · 30-11-2017 11:48PM

It is transparent that the UK initial strategy was to put the Irish border in the sea : until the election cockup, and, the EU's refusal to engage in allowing the UK to fudge that one until the very end became evident. The fiasco of having had to put the Unionists in exactly the last place she could afford to have them, torpedoed that strategy.
May would have liked to present a sea border as part of the last minute compromises and as a fait accompli, "sorry NornIrn, but we still love you, are committed to you, you have the best of both worlds, and we will try not to forget you altogether. Or too quickly at least".
But doubly difficult to pull off that stunt now. And there was no plan B to it.

Anthracite · 30-11-2017 11:51PM

kowtow wrote: »

I think it's important to remember that whatever noise the DUP might be making there are plenty of mainstream conservatives who would withdraw support from the government on the strength of a foreign power seeking to impose an economic border within the United kingdom.

They were able to live with it in Hong Kong, oddly enough.

kowtow · 30-11-2017 11:57PM

Anthracite wrote:

They were able to live with it in Hong Kong, oddly enough.

Hong Kong was never a part of the United kingdom. It had a currency pegged to the USD quite apart from anything else.

J Mysterio · 01-12-2017 12:11AM

What is May doing in Jordan right now? This is ****in crunch time!

Mr.Nice Guy · 01-12-2017 12:16AM

The DUP former leader and former First Minister Peter Robinson chipping in with his advice: "The South needs to wind its neck in."

https://twitter.com/eastantrimmp/status/936274630364614659

01-12-2017 12:16AM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

We're hearing a lot of talk about the EU being willing to stand by Ireland but I have my doubts. I remember reading a Guardian article a few weeks back where a source said the EU would stop short of putting pressure on the UK which impinged on its constitutional status. And because of the DUP deal, the Tories will be inclined to stand firm on ruling out any concrete move to keep NI in the CU. If the Tories play on this and say to the EU "you can't reasonably expect us to alter arrangements that affect our own citizens" I can't see the EU pushing this.

The reports last night would worry me about devolving "regulatory convergence" to Stormont, and will hopefully not be considered seriously by our government as that would effectively hand the DUP a veto over the process since their support is required for Stormont to be restored in the first place.

The DUP are threatening tonight to pull their support for the Conservatives if they agree to what the Irish government is looking for. The Tories of course could warn the DUP that if you do this you will wind up with a real chance of Corbyn in power, which would be a friendlier ear to nationalists and to the idea of a softer Brexit. But the DUP will first and foremost try to save face within their own base, and a softer Brexit that they can then blame on those pesky Irish nationalists working hand in hand with Brussels will play well to their heartland, while allowing them to look after unionist farmers concerned about the direction things have been heading.

This looks like it is going to come down to who blinks first. What I suspect will happen is some vague formula will be offered by the British that will stop short of what the Irish government wants, but which the EU will go for; and the EU will urge our government to trust in them and go along with it.

I think, not for the first time in Irish history, this country will be fobbed off with wishful thinking and sketchy promises from Tories about the border. I really hope I'm wrong and that I'll be pleasantly surprised.

Funny enough I was saying similar today. I'm happy with how the EU has been with Ireland so far but we need to be ready to get the elbows out and look after ourselves at all times.

Panrich · 01-12-2017 12:19AM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

The DUP former leader and former First Minister Peter Robinson chipping in with his advice: "The South needs to wind its neck in."

https://twitter.com/eastantrimmp/status/936274630364614659

We need to 'wind our neck in' in a spirit of friendship and mutual understanding?

Infini · 01-12-2017 12:20AM

solodeogloria wrote: »

I agree that there were a number of claims that simply shouldn't have been made by Brexit. The bus claim should have been much clearer to say something like the money that comes back from Brussels should be used for priorities like the NHS. I also agree that some of the pamphlets regarding Turkey's borders with Syria and Iraq weren't helpful. The Leave campaign did make a broad case for taking back control of borders, laws, money and trade policy.

The broad case made was on desires and wishes and not on facts. They promised moneys with no understanding of what they get back in return. They then make promises about how they'll get great trade deals etc and yet everything they "promise" is not turning out to be that when reality sets in. They say lets save 350m and use it on the NHS but are now potentially paying billions in leaving bills to meet their previous commitments. They're giving up their veto that would allow them to stop changes that would be to their detriment. Their promises are coming to naught as basically the EU has all the cards and they have little to nothing so weak is their position.

solodeogloria wrote: »

It's worth pointing out that we also received rather extreme prophecies of doom from the remain campaign that didn't come to pass. We didn't see a property crash. We didn't see a recession in 2017 and we probably won't see it at all. George Osborne encouraged his mates from all over to prophecy the apocalypse both in the long term and in the immediate aftermath of the referendum. He was wrong. I don't believe the melodramatic prophecies of "running off a cliff" for this reason. What we've seen is a lot more tame. Uncertainty has led to subdued economic growth. As clarity is given the signs indicate growth and not decline. I'm under thirty and I just want to get on with Brexit. I don't know what your definition of young is.

The problem is that while it hasnt been extreme as such this is essentially a slow motion crash. It could be more described as putting the country in an acid vat. It doesnt burn the place immediately but its corrosive and wears the country down over time. They have growth thats slower than JAPAN because of Brexit for crying out loud and that country was stuck in stagnation for a decade. Everyone else has higher growth. They promised everything would be great if they leave the EU but instead its coming to nothing but disadvantages politically and economically. The only reason thing's arent worse is because the country hasnt left the EU yet. it's when the actual conditions on the ground hit like trade tariffs going up when things go south quickly. If May gets nothing in December for example you can have buisnesses activating contingency plans because they cant afford to wait and then thats when you see more serious damage emerge. What happens for example if she has to agree to these things and basically Brexit shapes up to be a vastly inferior deal than just staying? What if there's no deal at all because they either refuse to compromise in the end or the brexiteers throw their toys out of the pram because they get nothing they like?

solodeogloria wrote: »

On the DUP: Firstly you can't blame them for taking advantage of Westminster arithmetic. Secondly, you can't really blame them for highlighting legitimate concerns that unionists have about a sea border undermining the integrity of the union. You might disagree with unionism but this doesn't mean that their position is illegitimate. David Trimble (from the more moderate UUP) has an article in The Spectator highlighting his concerns. The problem of the 2017 election for Northern Ireland in terms of full balance are twofold. Firstly Sinn Féin don't sit and as a result can't affect what occurs in parliament. Secondly Sinn Féin has taken support away from more moderate nationalists in the form of the SDLP. Northern Ireland is unhelpfully polarised and quite frankly I don't fully get the point of abstentionism on the part of Sinn Féin in any case.

The DUP are oppertunists plain and simple. They're as bad as UKIP imo. SF aint the best either but to be honest they even disliked the EU and opposed referendums for years but they're not fools they know themselves that leaving is actually risking far more problems than it solves. I do agree that not sitting in Westminster isnt helping them either but that was their official position due to the oath to the queen I believe. I dont hate the DUP cos of being unionists but rather their willingness to happily throw the majority of their state under the brexit bus for their political and ideological gains rather than practial and economic ones. I also dislike Arlene because she was the one in charge of that scheme that cost their own taxpayers money but wouldnt even temporarily step aside. Basically disowned the problem she was in charge of. They also want a land border rather than a sea border ignoring the fact that its neither economically sound or the fact its impractical as well. Its alot easier to monitor the ports than it is to monitor a long winding border. They forget that its not a united ireland that primarily Ireland wants a sea border but practical ones because of the porous nature of the ONLY land border the UK has with the EU not to mention the GFA. Ironically the very strategy they're pursing might END unionism or result in a united ireland in the long term.

Also have to laugh that some of these brexiteer think they can treat Ireland like they still run the place and realise theyre not talking to just Ireland but our 26 other friends as well.

J Mysterio · 01-12-2017 12:21AM

Sinn Fein have been curiously quiet.

Anthracite · 01-12-2017 12:32AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Sinn Fein have been curiously quiet.

Hard to see that as anything other than a positive. It's likely anything they say - anything - would be held up as an outrage to Unionism and Britishness in general.

Infini · 01-12-2017 12:33AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Sinn Fein have been curiously quiet.

They could easily be waiting in the long grass as well. I mean why make a case for a United Ireland when the DUP can make a complete mess and make a case for them by simply saying a UI would be an advantage not just to the economy but also the Former Unionist's in such a scenario would have a larger influence in the Dail than Westminster. Gerry retiring too so they kinda busy on that.

It's basically the "We came here to laugh at you strategy".

sink · 01-12-2017 12:37AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Sinn Fein have been curiously quiet.

Could be strategy on their part. All the main parties in the Dáil are aligned on this and have broad political support so they can't really take votes away from other parties. However they might be aware that they are treated as bogeymen by the UK media and politicians and so anything they say will inflame the debate further which could lead to a worse outcome for everyone. Don't really know how Shinners think so I might be wrong.

J Mysterio · 01-12-2017 01:03AM

I guess as pointed out that there is consensus in the Dail, so they are just letting the government get on with it.

The Rape of Lucretia · 01-12-2017 01:11AM

Panrich wrote: »

We need to 'wind our neck in' in a spirit of friendship and mutual understanding?

While it affects Eireans by consequence, to be fair, Brexit it a UK tragedy, and they have some justification in asking to be let get on with in some privacy without their neighbours sticking their oar in on their sad plight.

MPFGLB · 01-12-2017 01:28AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Sinn Fein have been curiously quiet.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/ireland-not-accept-anything-brings-11610869#ICID=ios_DailyRecordNewsApp_AppShare_Click_TWshare

Junkyard Tom · 01-12-2017 01:29AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

nor do we want to change the constitutional status of NI. The Irish government are respecting the GFA.

Ireland still has the aspiration to unite Ireland in its constitution and the British have agreed it's a matter for the people of Ireland alone without external impediment (i.e. British interference), now may not be the time but the above remains true.

kowtow wrote: »

I think it's important to remember that whatever noise the DUP might be making there are plenty of mainstream conservatives who would withdraw support from the government on the strength of a foreign power seeking to impose an economic border within the United kingdom.

The CON's are in no position to display a lack of unity and risk letting a Corbyn led LAB/LIB-DEM coalition in which would return the DUP to their rightful position as 'backbench nutcases'.

Second Yellow · 01-12-2017 01:31AM

I can't wait to see the implications in the north during the next election. Hopefully won't be too far away either.

Brexit discussion thread II

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