Brexit discussion thread II

J Mysterio · 30-11-2017 06:23PM

Peregrinus wrote: »

I have to say that I'm with solo here. I found the Barnier remarks very surprising. What could he possibly hope to achieve by them, at just this time (or at any time)? They're all the more surprising because, so far, he has proved himself a very deft operator. But these comments strike me as pretty much the opposite of deft, whatever that is.

I agree his comments were stupid. But to be fair, the EU is probably entitled to a gaffe, especially considering the ammount we have seen from the UK government. Not excusing but...

J Mysterio · 30-11-2017 06:32PM

mickoneill31 wrote: »

If only you held the UK negotiators to the same standards solo. I don't remember seeing any posts where you called anybody on the UK side a jerk for the piles of fabrications we've being listening to for the last year.
But the first time you can see one on the EUs side, he's a jerk.

SDG is to be commended for essentially standing as the interlocutor for almost everyone else on this thread.

But he should also be ashamed of his contributions, which have not been straight and true. I note that despite his practiced formality and learned stiff upper lip, he is becoming increasingly sharp, perhaps as he realises the negotiations aren't going as he expected them to.

Professor Moriarty · 30-11-2017 06:34PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

I agree his comments were stupid. But to be fair, the EU is probably entitled to a gaffe, especially considering the ammount we have seen from the UK government. Not excusing but...

I'd say the pressure that he is operating under is unimaginable.

solodeogloria · 30-11-2017 06:37PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

SDG is to be commended for essentially standing as the interlocutor for almost everyone else on this thread.

But he should also be ashamed of his contributions, which have not been straight and true. I note that despite his practiced formality and learned stiff upper lip, he is becoming increasingly sharp, perhaps as he realises the negotiations aren't going as he expected them to.

Good afternoon!

Nice first paragraph. But I'm not "ashamed" of disagreeing with you about Brexit. I'm also not "ashamed" for saying that Barnier is being a jerk when he makes insensitive comments about Britain somehow being of assistance to ISIS by Brexit.

We need to try not to make comments personal.

If I've said anything which is an outright lie I'm happy to apologise, otherwise I'm happy to be corrected. If my tone has been lacking, I'm happy to own that and say it is far from ideal.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

First Up · 30-11-2017 06:47PM

J Mysterio wrote:

SDG is to be commended for essentially standing as the interlocutor for almost everyone else on this thread.

If flooding a thread with meandering, contradictory ramblings, topped and tailed by pretentious salutations makes you an interlocutor, then its a title not to be envied.

kingchess · 30-11-2017 07:03PM

So the British will pay 50 billion to leave the EU and hope to get a trade deal which will not be as good as the one that they already have with the EU,And will have to accept the EU line on citizens rights ,And come up with some verbal fudge regarding the Border,,,,,It seems those red lines are not really red after all.But on the plus side reality and the Brexiteers are getting to know each other.

J Mysterio · 30-11-2017 07:11PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

To be fair, Theresa May has drank from a poisoned chalice. It would take one of history's greatest political minds to reconcile the Eurosceptic and Liberal wings of the Tory party now. I get the impression she is driven by a sense of duty to lead the country during a difficult time when careerists like Johnson & Gove are happy to let someone else take the flak.

It's nice to think that she's doing this as 'her duty', but really, she has done a horribly bad job. I don't think she has been true to herself and consequently she has let down the British people. She was not a leaver and doesnt believe in what she is doing. You're off to a loser right there.

She insists that Leave won the exit debate so they must leave, but firstly this was an advisory referendum and no one specified that Leave had to mean bridge burning, complete isolation and economic apocalypse. May decided what Brexit was (Brexit means Brexit), spurred on by right wing clowns in her party that she didnt have the guts to stand up to.

She has not been honest (to the public or in negotiations) and has not made the hard decisions that needed to be made (for example, firing half her cabinet). She has allowed the national mood to become rampant with an ugly nationalism and xenophobia.

May should have called for another election or stood down after that last election, rather than go into confidence and supply with the DUP. She is a disgrace.

I always thought Cameron was a good person. Sadly he will be always remembered for the monumentally stupid decision to grant the referendum. He said he couldnt lead the UK when he didnt beleive in Brexit. Now as things have changed, it's incumbent on him - and others like him - to inform public debate in the UK. At least Blair tried to say something, despite everything.

flaneur · 30-11-2017 07:32PM

The biggest issue is that since Cameron left, it's become a party that's all about internal politics.
Even the way they have been debating Brexit is more with themselves and with the press than with the EU or other EU member states.

I would have to say that this is probably the most myopic and inward looking UK Government I have ever seen.

The one thing that it has confirmed is that neither "Sir Humphrey" nor the business community have any influence over the current Tory party's direction or I suspect this would have never gone this far.

Mr.Nice Guy · 30-11-2017 07:34PM

We're hearing a lot of talk about the EU being willing to stand by Ireland but I have my doubts. I remember reading a Guardian article a few weeks back where a source said the EU would stop short of putting pressure on the UK which impinged on its constitutional status. And because of the DUP deal, the Tories will be inclined to stand firm on ruling out any concrete move to keep NI in the CU. If the Tories play on this and say to the EU "you can't reasonably expect us to alter arrangements that affect our own citizens" I can't see the EU pushing this.

The reports last night would worry me about devolving "regulatory convergence" to Stormont, and will hopefully not be considered seriously by our government as that would effectively hand the DUP a veto over the process since their support is required for Stormont to be restored in the first place.

The DUP are threatening tonight to pull their support for the Conservatives if they agree to what the Irish government is looking for. The Tories of course could warn the DUP that if you do this you will wind up with a real chance of Corbyn in power, which would be a friendlier ear to nationalists and to the idea of a softer Brexit. But the DUP will first and foremost try to save face within their own base, and a softer Brexit that they can then blame on those pesky Irish nationalists working hand in hand with Brussels will play well to their heartland, while allowing them to look after unionist farmers concerned about the direction things have been heading.

This looks like it is going to come down to who blinks first. What I suspect will happen is some vague formula will be offered by the British that will stop short of what the Irish government wants, but which the EU will go for; and the EU will urge our government to trust in them and go along with it.

I think, not for the first time in Irish history, this country will be fobbed off with wishful thinking and sketchy promises from Tories about the border. I really hope I'm wrong and that I'll be pleasantly surprised.

flaneur · 30-11-2017 07:52PM

I still think the most likely outcome is the current UK government turning into chaos and collapsing probably sooner rather than later.

ancapailldorcha · 30-11-2017 07:58PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

It's nice to think that she's doing this as 'her duty', but really, she has done a horribly bad job. I don't think she has been true to herself and consequently she has let down the British people. She was not a leaver and doesnt believe in what she is doing. You're off to a loser right there.

She insists that Leave won the exit debate so they must leave, but firstly this was an advisory referendum and no one specified that Leave had to mean bridge burning, complete isolation and economic apocalypse. May decided what Brexit was (Brexit means Brexit), spurred on by right wing clowns in her party that she didnt have the guts to stand up to.

She has not been honest (to the public or in negotiations) and has not made the hard decisions that needed to be made (for example, firing half her cabinet). She has allowed the national mood to become rampant with an ugly nationalism and xenophobia.

May should have called for another election or stood down after that last election, rather than go into confidence and supply with the DUP. She is a disgrace.

I always thought Cameron was a good person. Sadly he will be always remembered for the monumentally stupid decision to grant the referendum. He said he couldnt lead the UK when he didnt beleive in Brexit. Now as things have changed, it's incumbent on him - and others like him - to inform public debate in the UK. At least Blair tried to say something, despite everything.

What other motive is there? There is no glory for her to have here. I suspect she's easily financially comfortable enough to enjoy a lavish retirement. As I said, it was a poisoned chalice. Look at how little it took to knock Boris Johnson, a man prepared to galavant around the nation in a bus made of lies for his own leadership ambitions out of the race.

She's now in thrall to the far right wing of her own party. She had a single figure majority, now she has none hence the deal with the DUP? Who else would have as PM? Anachronistically, the British do not elect their head of state so it was Conservative party members, with an average age of 72 I might add who made that decision. Gove, Hammond, Johnson, Leadsom? It's not a list that inspires optimism. Jeremy Corbyn has no intention whatsoever of leading the country in the reverse decision and, even if he did his key allies McDonnell and Milne would have something to say about it.

The national mood reeks of Xenophobia because that's a large part of what drove the Leave vote. It isn't her fault and it's unfair to tar her with this particular brush. It was Farage who's spent years spouting fallacies about wages being lowered along with his London pals in the tabloid offices. This was just an opportunity to properly vent.

Yeah, Cameron was about as decent as Tories get. If you're interested, check out David Laws' Coalition. It details numerous attempts by Nick Clegg to warn him against calling a referendum to keep his right wingers on side. Cameron had a habit of gambling to keep things together. The worst thing that can happen to a gambler is winning and so he kept on until he lost.

flaneur · 30-11-2017 08:06PM

Theresa May was a very right wing home secretary and came up with such campaigns as the "Go Home Vans".
I think it's very relevant in the context of this discussion, as she's frequently portrayed as a moderate. Her track record has been quite hardline on immigration and I wonder if that's the angle she's coming to Brexit from?

She was never particularly pro or anti Brexit. She sort of sat on the fence during the campaign and seemed to just get dragged along with the Remain side because she was loyal to Cameron.

All I've seen from her is that she tends to go with the ebb and flow of wherever the power centre is, rather than being a leader.

The comparisons to Margaret Thatcher are also ridiculous and totally superficial. Thatcher was quite obnoxious and I found many of her policies offensive, but I don't think she would have allowed a situation where she was being bounced around like this. She'd have simply had the backbenchers disciplined and UKIP dealt with.

Jayop · 30-11-2017 08:07PM

flaneur wrote: »

I still think the most likely outcome is the current UK government turning into chaos and collapsing probably sooner rather than later.

With a bit of luck the DUP throw the toys out of the pram, pull the agreement with the Tories and even if the numbers after the subsequent election mean that they would be needed to make the numbers, the Tories won't trust them again.

The entire situation is a complete joke at this stage. I'd be embarrassed to call myself a brexiter given the omni-shambles they have presided over. Anyone warning of the consequences over NI pre-referendum was called a scare monger and part of "project fear" (stolen from the Scotsindy). It was the same with most of the real issues that Britain is now floundering with, but the complete lack of debate before the ref about NI which was always going to be one of the biggest stumbling blocks has now caught up with them. I hope they get their trousers pulled down by the EU in every single trade deal they have to negotiate. That's also likely since noone in the UK Government or civil service has had to negotiate one since they joined the EU so are completely lost.

If there's any form of a hard border I will be taking part in the civil disobedience that will inevitably follow. I will never show my passport passing within parts of Ireland. I will never open my boot to a customs officer passing within parts of Ireland. Life will be made such a nightmare at the border that changes will be forced.

ancapailldorcha · 30-11-2017 08:08PM

flaneur wrote: »

Theresa May was a very right wing home secretary and came up with such campaigns as the "Go Home Vans".
I think it's very relevant in the context of this discussion, as she's frequently portrayed as a moderate. Her track record has been quite hardline on immigration and I wonder if that's the angle she's coming to Brexit from?

The Conservative party manifesto contained a promise to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands and people voted for it. As much as I disagree, they're entitled to deliver that manifesto if they win which they did.

solodeogloria · 30-11-2017 08:12PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

It's nice to think that she's doing this as 'her duty', but really, she has done a horribly bad job. I don't think she has been true to herself and consequently she has let down the British people. She was not a leaver and doesnt believe in what she is doing. You're off to a loser right there.

She insists that Leave won the exit debate so they must leave, but firstly this was an advisory referendum and no one specified that Leave had to mean bridge burning, complete isolation and economic apocalypse. May decided what Brexit was (Brexit means Brexit), spurred on by right wing clowns in her party that she didnt have the guts to stand up to.

She has not been honest (to the public or in negotiations) and has not made the hard decisions that needed to be made (for example, firing half her cabinet). She has allowed the national mood to become rampant with an ugly nationalism and xenophobia.

May should have called for another election or stood down after that last election, rather than go into confidence and supply with the DUP. She is a disgrace.

I always thought Cameron was a good person. Sadly he will be always remembered for the monumentally stupid decision to grant the referendum. He said he couldnt lead the UK when he didnt beleive in Brexit. Now as things have changed, it's incumbent on him - and others like him - to inform public debate in the UK. At least Blair tried to say something, despite everything.

Good evening!

I honestly don't know why people keep repeating "this was an advisory referendum" as if it makes a difference. Repeatedly during the referendum the electorate were told that the Government were going to listen and act according to what the people said.

Britain is a democracy. It isn't a technocratic nation of Platonic style "philosopher kings" who somehow decree what is best for the people without recourse to them. I'm thankful that the UK is a country that hears and delivers.

It seems that most people irrespective of whether or not they are remainers or leavers agree. The difficult task of leaving is before us. I think May has done a much better job of Brexit than anyone on either side of the house would have done. Bar maybe someone like Amber Rudd. I personally wouldn't want to see Boris Johnson or Jacob Rees Mogg steering the ship.

The thing is - despite the pontificating we see on this thread David Cameron did the right thing by calling this referendum. The European question was the pressure cooker of British politics. John Major left Maastricht without a referendum. Blair and Brown left the UK without referenda on substantial treaty change. Decades of unresolved tension. He also did the right thing by saying the UK would act on the result. May did the right thing by taking it forward.

Democracy in the UK would have lost its integrity otherwise. I personally can't really believe that some people think that bottling this result would lead to a good outcome. It would lead to huge protest and increasing tensions as the people weren't listened to.

The UK needs closure on this issue and it is getting it. I'm thankful for that.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

flaneur · 30-11-2017 08:12PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The Conservative party manifesto contained a promise to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands and people voted for it. As much as I disagree, they're entitled to deliver that manifesto if they win which they did.

I'm not saying it didn't.
What I'm saying is that May is continuously painted as this mild and moderate character, and I am not really seeing much evidence of that in any of her track record in office.

I think what you are seeing though is a party that is pretty much ungovernable and full of really nasty splits and in-fighting. Cameron's resignation was pretty much down to the fact that he couldn't keep it together and it looks like May can't either.

Jayop · 30-11-2017 08:15PM

I think that they should carry on with the process of leaving, and once that's all done and the actual details of what it would entail are known it should then be put to the people again. The Brexit referendum was a complete farce, people couldn't have been more misinformed by bigoted arseholes had they tried. Surely they would be better off after they have a deal with the EU in place to have the chance to vote on the issue with all the actual facts in hand.

ancapailldorcha · 30-11-2017 08:22PM

flaneur wrote: »

I'm not saying it didn't.
What I'm saying is that May is continuously painted as this mild and moderate character, and I am not really seeing much evidence of that in any of her track record in office.

I think what you are seeing though is a party that is pretty much ungovernable and full of really nasty splits and in-fighting. Cameron's resignation was pretty much down to the fact that he couldn't keep it together and it looks like May can't either.

Again, this is what people voted for. If it wasn't her, it'd have been someone else. At least she had the courage not to have Gary McKinnon banged up in some third world, privately run US prison or Guantanamo.

Jayop wrote: »

I think that they should carry on with the process of leaving, and once that's all done and the actual details of what it would entail are known it should then be put to the people again. The Brexit referendum was a complete farce, people couldn't have been more misinformed by bigoted arseholes had they tried. Surely they would be better off after they have a deal with the EU in place to have the chance to vote on the issue with all the actual facts in hand.

I'd love to have a say on the final deal but there's no impetus driving a movement for it. The Liberal Democrats are still haunted by the spectre of an undeliverable freebie they failed to deliver, Labour are led by a Marxist who was the first to call for the invocation of Article 50 and the Greens are considered insane* by most of the electorate and are now irrelevant given Labour's lurch leftwards.

*I was involved with them in a previous life. They're easily the least electable party in the country save for those who only field a few candidates like Plaid Cymru and the NI parties.

An Ciarraioch · 30-11-2017 08:23PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The Conservative party manifesto contained a promise to reduce immigration to the tens of thousands and people voted for it. As much as I disagree, they're entitled to deliver that manifesto if they win which they did.

On that score, even non-EU immigration is well above the self-declared 100k annual target:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42178038

ancapailldorcha · 30-11-2017 08:25PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

On that score, even non-EU immigration is well above the self-declared 100k annual target:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42178038

I'm firmly in the pro-EU camp, especially for free movement. If I had money, I'd say I'd be one of those London, Liberal elites I keep reading and hearing about. Quotas for it are bafflingly daft in my opinion, especially when nobody even tries to meet them. Net EU migration here is well down though.

Jayop · 30-11-2017 08:26PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Again, this is what people voted for. If it wasn't her, it'd have been someone else. At least she had the courage not to have Gary McKinnon banged up in some third world, privately run US prison or Guantanamo.

I'd love to have a say on the final deal but there's no impetus driving a movement for it. The Liberal Democrats are still haunted by the spectre of an undeliverable freebie they failed to deliver, Labour are led by a Marxist who was the first to call for the invocation of Article 50 and the Greens are considered insane* by most of the electorate and are now irrelevant given Labour's lurch leftwards.

*I was involved with them in a previous life. They're easily the least electable party in the country save for those who only field a few candidates like Plaid Cymru and the NI parties.

There may be no imputus now because the implications of the final deal are completely unknown as yet (farcical I know), but once the deal is fully done and people in the UK realize how much they are going to be screwed by Brexit then hopefully there will be a big push for it.

Samaris · 30-11-2017 08:32PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

On that score, even non-EU immigration is well above the self-declared 100k annual target:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42178038

Well, EU migration dropped 75,000+ (43%) in the first year so..yay?

Leroy42 · 30-11-2017 10:04PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Again, this is what people voted for. If it wasn't her, it'd have been someone else.

She has made a complete and utter mess of the whole thing. Triggering Art 50 before they were ready, pushing for a snap election when there was no need, being absolutely toxic during the campaign itself, teaming up with the DUP and handing out £1bn promises when she knew that the border would be a contentious issue, failing to control any of her cabinet, not sacking Patel only to accept her resignation two days later.

Wasting all that time and money on trying to stop the parliament from having any say on Brexit through the courts when what the people voted for was to give parliament back power.

Rolling over an letting the nutters like Boris and Fox dictate her policy even though she doesn't even agree with it. There is a vast range of the type of Brexit can could be delivered and she has gone with the most dramatic and potentially harming of them all.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'd love to have a say on the final deal but there's no impetus driving a movement for it.

No impetus? Having a say is exactly what the Brexit vote was all about. Now May and her cronies seem to think that that is the only vote anyone, even parliament, should get.

Vronsky · 30-11-2017 10:05PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

It's 11 AM!?

It's evening time in the USA though

Sam Russell · 30-11-2017 10:07PM

Vronsky wrote: »

It's evening time in the USA though

The world spins the other way. It is evening in Russia,

Water John · 30-11-2017 10:13PM

The UK didn't use the powers they have, at present, to control immigration. Just blamed the EU, again.

steddyeddy · 30-11-2017 10:20PM

Jayop wrote: »

With a bit of luck the DUP throw the toys out of the pram, pull the agreement with the Tories and even if the numbers after the subsequent election mean that they would be needed to make the numbers, the Tories won't trust them again.

The entire situation is a complete joke at this stage. I'd be embarrassed to call myself a brexiter given the omni-shambles they have presided over. Anyone warning of the consequences over NI pre-referendum was called a scare monger and part of "project fear" (stolen from the Scotsindy). It was the same with most of the real issues that Britain is now floundering with, but the complete lack of debate before the ref about NI which was always going to be one of the biggest stumbling blocks has now caught up with them. I hope they get their trousers pulled down by the EU in every single trade deal they have to negotiate. That's also likely since noone in the UK Government or civil service has had to negotiate one since they joined the EU so are completely lost.

If there's any form of a hard border I will be taking part in the civil disobedience that will inevitably follow. I will never show my passport passing within parts of Ireland. I will never open my boot to a customs officer passing within parts of Ireland. Life will be made such a nightmare at the border that changes will be forced.

Speaking of which, the DUP's Sammy Wilson has warned that the DUP-Tory deal might collapse over Brexit. Sammy's got an interesting past, having previously backed a UDA plan to wipe put the Catholics in Northern Ireland. This is the sort of person May has brought into mainstream politics and then has the nerve to criticise Jeremy Corbin for meeting with Sinn Fein.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/30/mp-sammy-wilson-warns-brexit-talks-endanger-tory-dup-deal-northern-ireland

Sand · 30-11-2017 10:22PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

The world spins the other way. It is evening in Russia,

Its strangely nice to be thought important enough to be worth the effort. It makes you think how many other ex-pat Brexiteers (or moany remainers on UK message boards) from <inserttargetnationhere>, who voted remain but are now convinced otherwise are not so subtly trying to make the public mood between the UK and the EU as poisonous as possible. Its certainly in the interests of Putin to have the EU public mood so aggravated by irrational Brexiteers (and vice versa) that the door is slammed on the way out, rather than Brexit being seen as something reversible.

Water John · 30-11-2017 10:26PM

Ian Paisley Jnr. Debating with Michael Creed on Prime Time. Think I'll give that a miss. Sorry, Michael you drew the short straw on that. Did well on BBC 2 last night.

LeinsterDub · 30-11-2017 10:26PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

We're hearing a lot of talk about the EU being willing to stand by Ireland but I have my doubts. I remember reading a Guardian article a few weeks back where a source said the EU would stop short of putting pressure on the UK which impinged on its constitutional status.

This is in line with the Irish position. We aren't pushing for unification nor do we want to change the constitutional status of NI. The Irish government are respecting the GFA.

Brexit discussion thread II

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