Brexit discussion thread II

Leonard Hofstadter · 28-11-2017 08:57PM

kowtow wrote: »

My guess is that they will end up with a fudge which guarantees no regulatory divergence in NI until such time as a mutually acceptable electronic whole Island border thingy is implemented. They'll aim to use the transition period to do much of the work for this. They'll offer a bit of cash to Ireland to help in the planning and we'll jump.

The alternative is we hold up the talks (which even if right, doesn't help us much) and they drive home the message that they have never had any intention of putting a border up and Ireland and the EU obviously want to.

Once the rest of the 27 have a sniff of the money the pressure will be on from a lot of directions.

Then on with the second phase where the EU go for the same amount of money again in return for financial services pass porting rights. In many ways that's where things get interesting.

I can't see the EU allowing them passporting, that would be back to the have cake and eat it scenario. Well not unless the UK agrees to cough up a hefty amount of money and to accept all EU rules including ECJ oversight. Unless the UK gives up something big for it then the best they can hope for is a deal similar to Canada.

steddyeddy · 28-11-2017 09:01PM

captainspeed wrote: »

I can't see the EU allowing them passporting, that would be back to the have cake and eat it scenario. Well not unless the UK agrees to cough up a hefty amount of money and to accept all EU rules including ECJ oversight. Unless the UK gives up something big for it then the best they can hope for is a deal similar to Canada.

It's in France's interest that the UK doesn't have passporting rights. They have a lot to gain from this.

flaneur · 28-11-2017 09:06PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

It's in France's interest that the UK doesn't have passporting rights. They have a lot to gain from this.

As do all of the 27 really.

joeysoap · 28-11-2017 09:11PM

Maybe posted already (I’m not going to trawl)

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596825/IPOL_STU%282017%29596825_EN.pdf

Kermit.de.frog · 28-11-2017 09:12PM

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/935599685611515904

Aul one: "Ireland are just being petty because they lost" :cool:

steddyeddy · 28-11-2017 09:24PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/935599685611515904

Aul one: "Ireland are just being petty because they lost" :cool:

God almighty that is woeful. You know the education system in England has a lot to answer for when most of those people don't know where the border of the UK is. Cringe worthy stuff.

Samaris · 28-11-2017 09:40PM

I must admit, I couldn't draw it accurately! The damn thing is all over the place. I know roughly where it is but even then, I couldn't, if put on the spot, name all the counties along it.

Mind you, I was never good at locational geography.

Looked it up there - Leitrim is a very odd-shaped county. (Got most of them, was unsure about Down and Cavan though)

Schorpio · 28-11-2017 09:43PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/935599685611515904

Aul one: "Ireland are just being petty because they lost" :cool:

Interesting young/old contrast. Old lady pretty much expects us to fall into line, whereas the young lady hadn't the faintest notion where the border is (drew a line about halfway through Ireland!)

The poor old lady thinks she is still living in the Empire - we just have to lump it! Err, no. We don't.

Ted_YNWA · 28-11-2017 09:53PM

Schorpio wrote: »

Interesting young/old contrast. Old lady pretty much expects us to fall into line, whereas the young lady hadn't the faintest notion where the border is (drew a line about halfway through Ireland!)

The poor old lady thinks she is still living in the Empire - we just have to lump it! Err, no. We don't.

The "lump it" attitude works both ways. The UK will do likewise when they realise they don't get all they are expecting, but if anyone was to say that directly in the media they would be villified & the stocks dusted off for the town square.

The problem is her view permeates all the media daily.

28-11-2017 10:02PM

Jesus even seeing the young people talking about the Republic being "cut-off" by a border. They really still don't get it.

murphaph · 28-11-2017 10:03PM

Gonna be a loooong time before there's any money for the NHS. UK seems to be falling into line but I reckon the government will collapse if not over the bill then over Ireland. Just too intractable.

steddyeddy · 28-11-2017 10:04PM

Schorpio wrote: »

Interesting young/old contrast. Old lady pretty much expects us to fall into line, whereas the young lady hadn't the faintest notion where the border is (drew a line about halfway through Ireland!)

The poor old lady thinks she is still living in the Empire - we just have to lump it! Err, no. We don't.

In fairness she'll be around as long as some of her attitudes. A lot of old people with this mindset ruined the future for the younger generation through Brexit.

murphaph · 28-11-2017 10:05PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Jesus even seeing the young people talking about the Republic being "cut-off" by a border. They really still don't get it.

Or as I shall now refer to it as "The Athlone Wall".

Sam Russell · 28-11-2017 10:11PM

murphaph wrote: »

Or as I shall now refer to it as "The Athlone Wall".

But will the Mexicans pay for it?

Schorpio · 28-11-2017 10:15PM

murphaph wrote: »

Gonna be a loooong time before there's any money for the NHS. UK seems to be falling into line but I reckon the government will collapse if not over the bill then over Ireland. Just too intractable.

At 55bn settlement and 350 million per week - the NHS will be waiting for approx. 157 weeks, or just over 3 years.

And that of course is if you just go with the figure on the bus, which Nigel backtracked on literally the morning of the result.

Sam Russell · 28-11-2017 10:25PM

Schorpio wrote: »

At 55bn settlement and 350 million per week - the NHS will be waiting for approx. 157 weeks, or just over 3 years.

And that of course is if you just go with the figure on the bus, which Nigel backtracked on literally the morning of the result.

€55 billion is about 5 years current net contributions, and if you add the cost of replacing the 30 odd EU agencies they will have to replicate, and add the cost of the Brexit Dept (£1 billion/year) plus the cost of the trade negotiating team they have yet to recruit, and the cost of CAP payments (but these will only go to 'deserving' farmers), and regional funds for Cornwall, Wales, and NI, I think the three years might be more like 30 years.

Anthracite · 28-11-2017 10:37PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

€55 billion is about 5 years current net contributions, and if you add the cost of replacing the 30 odd EU agencies they will have to replicate, and add the cost of the Brexit Dept (£1 billion/year) plus the cost of the trade negotiating team they have yet to recruit, and the cost of CAP payments (but these will only go to 'deserving' farmers), and regional funds for Cornwall, Wales, and NI, I think the three years might be more like 30 years.

Plus the lost income from the departing EU agencies.

Anthracite · 28-11-2017 10:39PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Aul one: "Ireland are just being petty because they lost" :cool:

WTF does she think we lost?

Truly, many pensioners live in the Daily Express Cinematic Universe.

kowtow · 28-11-2017 10:40PM

flaneur wrote: »

As do all of the 27 really.

True enough.. but it's also important not to underestimate the attraction of a domicile which is near but not in a closely regulated market. There is a phenomenal amount of investment in European assets held in structures which ameliorate or avoid withholding taxes - for example - and that money would not necessarily want to shift lock stock and barrel into the Eurozone core.

From the perspective of the public that might be quite desirable.. but when push comes to shove nobody wants funds melting out of their own investment markets (commercial property, residential property) for example.. let alone securities and bond markets. Investors, in the end, are not going to be over the moon if they end up having to place funds inside a closely ring-fenced EZ with banking union and more centralised regulation on the way. The City, I think, will remain an important finance centre for Europe. Passporting is far from the whole of the picture and if in practice European subsidiaries retain sufficient access then that will be enough.

Leonard Hofstadter · 28-11-2017 10:52PM

None of what I saw in that Channel 4 link surprises me.

I bet every other Irish person on this thread who lives in England would agree with me.

That's part of the reason I think giving out to the average British person or being rude to them because of '800 years' etc is a complete waste of time - they really do know no next to nothing about our country - and they certainly don't know about the fact that they occupied Ireland for 800 odd years.

I think the education system there is shocking at times. By the way it's not just Ireland, general knowledge of geography isn't a strong point of your average Brit.

My experience is if you try and explain it in a rational and non emotional manner they are prepared to listen and see why we would have such a major problem with the border.

Ignoring the jingoistic press comments floating about because of our (correct) stance on Brexit, they really do like us and as I've said before on several occasions my nationality has never been an issue in the 5+ years I've lived in the UK.

listermint · 28-11-2017 10:57PM

kowtow wrote: »

True enough.. but it's also important not to underestimate the attraction of a domicile which is near but not in a closely regulated market. There is a phenomenal amount of investment in European assets held in structures which ameliorate or avoid withholding taxes - for example - and that money would not necessarily want to shift lock stock and barrel into the Eurozone core.

From the perspective of the public that might be quite desirable.. but when push comes to shove nobody wants funds melting out of their own investment markets (commercial property, residential property) for example.. let alone securities and bond markets. Investors, in the end, are not going to be over the moon if they end up having to place funds inside a closely ring-fenced EZ with banking union and more centralised regulation on the way. The City, I think, will remain an important finance centre for Europe. Passporting is far from the whole of the picture and if in practice European subsidiaries retain sufficient access then that will be enough.

That entire post is the most wishful of wishful thinking.

The UK are not getting passporting rights. Mark this post down so you can reference it.

Their days of finance domination within Europe are ending and it's entirely of their own making. Europe made the city, Europe will take it away.

kowtow · 28-11-2017 10:59PM

listermint wrote: »

That entire post is the most wishful of wishful thinking.

The UK are not getting passporting rights. Mark this post down so you can reference it.

Their days of finance domination within Europe are ending and it's entirely of their own making. Europe made the city, Europe will take it away.

Europe most emphatically did not make the City .. and most certainly not Europe during the time of the EU.

And if you read my post you'll observe that passporting rights are unlikely to be the issue they are held out to be. It seems unlikely that Europe will avoid an FTT in the brave new world and that alone will be a powerful disincentive to keep desks outside it.

listermint · 28-11-2017 11:04PM

kowtow wrote: »

Europe most emphatically did not make the City .. and most certainly not Europe during the time of the EU.

And if you read my post you'll observe that passporting rights are unlikely to be the issue they are held out to be. It seems unlikely that Europe will avoid an FTT in the brave new world and that alone will be a powerful disincentive to keep desks outside it.

The city only became the financial centre that it is today because of its EU access to deny that is to deny history.

Professor Moriarty · 28-11-2017 11:08PM

captainspeed wrote: »

None of what I saw in that Channel 4 link surprises me.

I bet every other Irish person on this thread who lives in England would agree with me.

That's part of the reason I think giving out to the average British person or being rude to them because of '800 years' etc is a complete waste of time - they really do know no next to nothing about our country - and they certainly don't know about the fact that they occupied Ireland for 800 odd years.

I think the education system there is shocking at times. By the way it's not just Ireland, general knowledge of geography isn't a strong point of your average Brit.

My experience is if you try and explain it in a rational and non emotional manner they are prepared to listen and see why we would have such a major problem with the border.

Ignoring the jingoistic press comments floating about because of our (correct) stance on Brexit, they really do like us and as I've said before on several occasions my nationality has never been an issue in the 5+ years I've lived in the UK.

An old maxim: On the subject of history, the English can never remember and the Irish can never forget.

Water John · 28-11-2017 11:09PM

David Davis finding himself in hot water. The Speaker of the House of Commons demands he appear before the relevent committee.

This caused the collapse to the Govn't in Canada.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/28/david-davis-risk-contempt-parliament-brexit-reports-speaker

Samaris · 28-11-2017 11:11PM

They really did not have a clue, bar the man that did draw the border correctly. The very last man had some idea too. The pensioner had an idea, but it was about seventy years out of date. The younger ones were hopeless though. According to the young wan's map, Dublin's in the North!

Leroy42 · 28-11-2017 11:12PM

Wonder what Solo thinks of the current Govt trying to hide information from the parliament. That is after May tried to top the parliament even having a vote on the final deal.

LeinsterDub · 28-11-2017 11:13PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

The Telegraph have an article claiming the EU and the UK have agreed on the money issue.

Not anywhere else yet. Claimed ballpark is €45-55bn. Admittedly too much for my liking if true.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

When you consider its 3 or 6 times higher than your supposed final figures of 10 or 20 bl I'm not surprised. I can't honestly recall but weren't you in the go whistle for it camp if more than 20 bl was offered?

Water John · 28-11-2017 11:20PM

Speaker considers Davis may be in contempt of Parliament.

kowtow · 28-11-2017 11:23PM

listermint wrote: »

The city only became the financial centre that it is today because of its EU access to deny that is to deny history.

The City of London was the worlds primary Eurodollar market and the worlds largest foreign exchange centre by the end of the seventies, regaining a position it had held until the 1920s. It was always the worlds premier insurance and reinsurance market thanks to Lloyds, always the centre for the Gold Fix and always pretty much dominant in shipping.

Today London is by far the largest forex market in the world and there is no European city which even makes the list.

It's advantage was - and is - a location in between the USA and the East (and Europe of course) and by far the most trusted commercial common law legal jurisdiction in the world ..absolutely rooted in centuries of commerce. Just consider how many bonds are issued around the world, including in Europe, under English Law and the specific reasons why that might be the case?

The Privy Council in London is the ultimate court of appeal for 31 countries, a figure probably only rivaled by the ECJ.

We all appreciate the success of the EU - which has been considerable - and the concomitant benefits to many countries including our own but the slavish, anti - UK Euro cheer-leading on this thread really makes one wonder.

Brexit discussion thread II

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