Brexit discussion thread II

flaneur · 26-11-2017 04:49PM

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

That "special relationship" as they call it was a red hot mess from the foundation of the state until the last 20/25 years.

And Brexit takes us back to the practicalities of about 1967 and the politics of about 1867.

It’s very frustrating that the last 30 years of rapprochement, all the work done by British and Irish governments, all political parties, the EU, the US under both Clinton and Bush administrations, the Canadians, even Nelson Mandela got involved at one stage is going to be thrown away in a fit of jingosim about an unrelated, but directly impacting issue.

I’d say Mo Mowlam must be spinning in her grave and could be likely to take up haunting No 10 at this stage. The sheer effort and bridge building that went into making that process work was phenomenal and it’s all being potentially flung under the Brexit bus by one of the most divisive, incompetent and irrational governments the UK has ever seen.

murphaph · 26-11-2017 05:06PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I would not put it past this bunch of Tories and Brexiteers to start 'punishing' Irish people resident in the UK for the stance of the Irish Government - float the idea in the Tory press about taking away the rights of Irish people in the UK post Brexit

I wouldn't either. I don't recognise the UK anymore for the place it seems to have become.

solodeogloria · 26-11-2017 05:06PM

Good afternoon!

Leroy42 wrote: »

Although he is part of a group of people actively looking to break the current relationship! The UK/Ireland relationship is presently pretty good, yet that formed no part in their decision. Why would you think it will form any part of their decisions about any deal?

Any citation for the claim that Liam Fox wants to get rid of the rights Irish people have? By citation I mean a direct quote from him saying he wants them removed.

Leroy42 wrote: »

You don't need google, it has been pointed out by many on here that no such condition exists. The only reading of that is that the border is a negotiable position, UK have no position either way. They will happily give it up to get their overall aim. The opposite is also true. On that basis you need to consider you acceptance of their word.

No I don't. The Government have been very clear on their stance on the border. You can read the position paper.

Leroy42 wrote: »

So its ok for the UK to threaten to walk away (no deal) but wrong of the Irish to use leverage they have? I bet the Poles, and Romanians etc felt the same way as you as few years ago, not so much anymore. Maybe your friends will continue to be ok, but its the wider society you have to worry about. When you go to the next job interview will you be treated the same as the UK guy going for the job?

It is monumentally stupid because an internal border won't be agreed to. It's also monumentally stupid because Ireland needs a trade deal with the UK.

I think I'll be treated the exact same way as when I went for an internal interview for a vacancy at my firm this year. They don't discriminate based on nationality. I don't know why you prefer to believe myths over reality.

Leroy42 wrote: »

Correct, but what does that mean. Positive for who? Because Ireland is being used as a negotiation piece at present. Do you think the EU should be concerned with how this effects the UK or how it effects the EU, because it seems that the UK seems them as mutually exclusive.

The UK have been pretty clear about what they want. A mutually beneficial free trade arrangement with the EU, and security cooperation. This is in the interests of businesses on both sides of the Channel and indeed on both sides of the Irish sea.

Leroy42 wrote: »

So what. It has changed because of the EU. Ireland will no longer be tied directly to the UK, as it was in the past, and based on the current course will be asked which to go with as it cannot have both.

No it hasn't. Irish citizens had the right to live in the UK long before the EU.

Leroy42 wrote: »

Not much of a special relationship when Ireland is basically being told to wait until the UK gets what it wants before it will even state its position on something that could have a significant impact on Ireland.

This is a manipulative way of putting it. Borders depend on trade and customs. Borders can't be agreed to be open or closed without discussing this. The EU refuse to talk about it. Therefore it cannot be resolved.

Leroy42 wrote: »

So this is all the Irish fault? Really? UK were a major part of Europe for 40+ years, but that changed last year. Now they want out, apparently regardless of the damage it might do to themselves or others. You do realise that the past is only an indication of what might happen, it doesn't guarantee it. Especially when circumstances change.

Coveney and Varadkar are being daft. That's different to the Irish are at fault. A group of people are not at fault if their Government chooses to be daft.

Leroy42 wrote: »

I really find your blind faith to Brexit quite confusing. No matter what evidence is put in front of you you seem unwilling to even consider that Brexit is not as great a plan as it was sold. That there are many areas that the government simply has no plan for and that kicking the can to phase 2 is just that. It is not part of some complex plan, Fox et al simply do not know.

It's not blind faith. The UK will do just fine. However, it is about honouring the vote of the people. It needs to be delivered.

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yes it is likely that the Irish will continue to have relationship with the UK, but the logical outcome of the present thinking within the UK that immigration is a massive problem is that at some point all immigrants will be covered. To simply hope that you aren't effect is just that, hope

The UK have said there will be no immigration controls and that the CTA will be maintained.

Why are you creating problems that don't exist? The UK sees Irish migration in a wholly different light to migration from the rest of the EU.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

murphaph · 26-11-2017 05:08PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

This is unwelcome hysteria. It isn't helpful to anyone.

What I want as an Irish person living in the UK is a good deal. That's what everyone should want.

I won't permit the nonsense that British people somehow want to harm me as an Irish person when there's no evidence at all to suggest this.

The opposite is true. I've been made very welcome here and I've got no doubt that will continue.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Have a read of any comments section on any right leaning British paper where the story mentions Ireland and Brexit. There are plenty of leave voters who want you gone as well.

Oh and any idea what the UK is going to do to replace EASA in a little over a year?

26-11-2017 05:20PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

The UK have said there will be no immigration controls and that the CTA will be maintained.

THis is what confuses me, this statement is not exactly "taking back control" that was promised in the referendum campaign.

Ireland as a member of the EU has freedom of movement and will continue to do so.

How does the British Government intend to square that circle?

Also regarding customs they say that it will be the EUs fault if controls are put on the border.

Well that depends strongly in which direction the controls are needed, what if goods are being smuggled from south to north rather than north to south.

The irish governments position is realistic in a way that the london governments is not.
We all know that things will cross that border, its too long and too many crossings and there are plenty of shady people with vast experience of getting things across without interference from police/garda/customs.

This is not appreciated or has been forgotten/deliberately ignored by London.

Nody · 26-11-2017 05:36PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Has anyone suggested any specific deal the UK could get with any country on better conditions than they already enjoy by being in the EU ?

Solo for starters has stated it multiple times on this thread as justification of Brexit because EU is somehow holding UK back in the area with China, India etc...

Leroy42 wrote: »

I agree that the result was unexpected, by all sides, but that doesn't explain the performance since then. What possible good can Liam Fox think he will have by jumping in at this stage? Why are the people in the UK simply accepting this carry on?

What he, Boris and the rest of the goon squad have been doing for the last years; playing Tory politics with the UK economy and government. He's showing his "strong resolve" to the hardcore Brexiteer faction for the upcoming leadership election.

solodeogloria · 26-11-2017 05:36PM

Good afternoon!

Nobody said that free movement of Irish citizens under the CTA would end during the referendum campaign or now. The Government have been clear they intend for this to continue.

Inventing problems that don't exist isn't helpful. If anyone isn't sure in respect to what is being proposed I'd advise them to read the documents that have been published.

The UK has also been clear that free travel from the EU will continue. Freedom of movement for work without a visa will end. The UK Border Force will enforce this in the same way as it enforces other visa waivers for travel. Deportation will be issued for those who overstay and violate the terms of their visa.

Muddying the waters and saying that the Government haven't been clear when they have stated all these things is dishonest at best.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

ancapailldorcha · 26-11-2017 05:42PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Nobody said that free movement of Irish citizens under the CTA would end during the referendum campaign or now. The Government have been clear they intend for this to continue.

Things said during the referendum campaign aren't worth anything. Look at the £350 million for the NHS pledge.

solodeogloria wrote: »

Inventing problems that don't exist isn't helpful. If anyone isn't sure in respect to what is being proposed I'd advise them to read the documents that have been published.

I might say the same about pretending that something isn't a problem.

solodeogloria wrote: »

Muddying the waters and saying that the Government haven't been clear when they have stated all these things is dishonest at best.

It's stated aspirations which are meaningless. It's what deal is signed at the end in 2019, should an accord be reached which matters. Posturing from Westminster isn't helping anything. It's a border that the EU has with a non-EU state, that's the issue. I don't understand why you keep pretending that it isn't or that some paper from Westminster is some sort of panacea.

26-11-2017 05:42PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

Nobody said that free movement of Irish citizens under the CTA would end during the referendum campaign or now. The Government have been clear they intend for this to continue.

Inventing problems that don't exist isn't helpful. If anyone isn't sure in respect to what is being proposed I'd advise them to read the documents that have been published.

The UK has also been clear that free travel from the EU will continue. Freedom of movement for work without a visa will end. The UK Border Force will enforce this in the same way as it enforces other visa waivers for travel. Deportation will be issued for those who overstay and violate the terms of their visa.

Muddying the waters and saying that the Government haven't been clear when they have stated all these things is dishonest at best.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

From what you've written, putting it in writing should be easy. Why are we even discussing it?

Enzokk · 26-11-2017 05:44PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Nobody said that free movement of Irish citizens under the CTA would end during the referendum campaign or now. The Government have been clear they intend for this to continue.

Inventing problems that don't exist isn't helpful. If anyone isn't sure in respect to what is being proposed I'd advise them to read the documents that have been published.

The UK has also been clear that free travel from the EU will continue. Freedom of movement for work without a visa will end. The UK Border Force will enforce this in the same way as it enforces other visa waivers for travel. Deportation will be issued for those who overstay and violate the terms of their visa.

Muddying the waters and saying that the Government haven't been clear when they have stated all these things is dishonest at best.

But how do you think a CTA can continue if you need to check passports/ID documents? That is not the definition of the Common Travel Area, but visa free travel. How does the UK take back control of immigration when it has an open border with the EU?

I fear that question has not been answered because the answer is simple and not one that the UK can give. The CTA will either end, or NI will be part of the customs union or the UK will be part of the single market or customs union. That is the only way you continue the CTA (British aim) and leave the EU.

kowtow · 26-11-2017 05:45PM

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Imagine Apple or Guinness moving to Larne because they must export from British approved places to the outside world. It's laughable!

Go figure.

Imagine that.

I reckon the UK would have to give them some extra-ordinary tax treatments to make that worthwhile.

Leroy42 · 26-11-2017 05:48PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Any citation for the claim that Liam Fox wants to get rid of the rights Irish people have? By citation I mean a direct quote from him saying he wants them removed.

Ah ok, so you can only believe it when he says it completely. The fact that he said this morning that it is a negotiable position seems to have alluded you.

solodeogloria wrote: »

No I don't. The Government have been very clear on their stance on the border. You can read the position paper.

Position paper. Really. Is that the same standing as 20bn is too much? What is the position then. I cannot find it. And it seems others can't either as otherwise there would be no discussions to be had.

solodeogloria wrote: »

It is monumentally stupid because an internal border won't be agreed to. It's also monumentally stupid because Ireland needs a trade deal with the UK.

Really? Because, again, the UK have said no such thing. They have said they would prefer it not to be there, but not as much as they want their red lines. If the EU continue on with the insistence that no border required CU membership do you envisage the UK government agreeing?

Yes we need a trade deal with the UK, but I already said that. The UK are clearly aware of that and trying to use Ireland as a bargaining chip. Kind of ruins the special relationship idea. And you are agreeing that the UK are basically threatening Ireland. If we don't side with them we don't get a trade deal, and yet you come on here claiming that the EU are being bullies!

solodeogloria wrote: »

I think I'll be treated the exact same way as when I went for an internal interview for a vacancy at my firm this year. They don't discriminate based on nationality. I don't know why you prefer to believe myths over reality.

So have you missed the massive rise in attacks in immigrants since the vote. What makes you think you are so special? And perhaps you are well set up, good group of friends, plenty of contacts. But what about your kids, or their friends or the next wave of Irish that come over.

solodeogloria wrote: »

The UK have been pretty clear about what they want. A mutually beneficial free trade arrangement with the EU, and security cooperation. This is in the interests of businesses on both sides of the Channel and indeed on both sides of the Irish sea.

Well they already had that, but didn't like the conditions attached. SO they want to change the conditions. Nothing wrong in that, but if you want to change a deal you need to offer something in return.

solodeogloria wrote: »

No it hasn't. Irish citizens had the right to live in the UK long before the EU.

Ok, you completely missed the point. EU citizens had the same rights which are now being taken away. Apart from the UK loving the Irish, why exactly do you think people like Farrage etc will simply accept a continuing stream of Irish people taking their jobs.

Lets say UK gets a great deal and in the process Ireland loses out. Where is the 1st place young Irish are going to go for work? UK. So instead of all these jobs for British, the Irish take a large portion of them. How do you think that will play out?

solodeogloria wrote: »

This is a manipulative way of putting it. Borders depend on trade and customs. Borders can't be agreed to be open or closed without discussing this. The EU refuse to talk about it. Therefore it cannot be resolved.

Its not manipulative, just a different way that look at it. The UK already agreed this would be phase 1. Just like you are so against going back over the vote, why should EU go back over the agreed process.

UK agreed to this process and should stick to its agreement. If they cannot even stick to an agreement such as this why would you, or anybody, believe anything they say?

solodeogloria wrote: »

Coveney and Varadkar are being daft. That's different to the Irish are at fault. A group of people are not at fault if their Government chooses to be daft.

But the government represents the people. And clearly the likes of Fox etc are blaming the current impasse on the Irish. There is no other way to look at it.

solodeogloria wrote: »

It's not blind faith. The UK will do just fine. However, it is about honouring the vote of the people. It needs to be delivered.

How do you know this?

solodeogloria wrote: »

The UK have said there will be no immigration controls and that the CTA will be maintained.

Why are you creating problems that don't exist? The UK sees Irish migration in a wholly different light to migration from the rest of the EU.

For now yes. I am looking ahead at the logical conclusion of where this is going. As an Irish person in he UK you are an immigrant. You might blend in better than the Indians or whatever, but your situation is the same. You continue to think that you will always to treated as special. You realise that it was not non-EU immigration that was the issue, as the UK had full control over that, but EU immigration. All those EU citizens coming to the UK taking jobs etc. The people voted for that to stop. Ireland is part of the EU.

solodeogloria · 26-11-2017 05:48PM

Deleted User wrote: »

From what you've written, putting it in writing should be easy. Why are we even discussing it?

Good afternoon!

I agree with your question. Why are people discussing this when it is already the stated position of the British Government.

If your question means why won't the UK guarantee that the border will be open before the EU discuss phase 2. I've explained this. It's because the UK don't want to commit to single market and customs union membership which is what the Irish Government and the EU are trying to force them to do.

There are other options to explore. The UK are clear that they want the border open. It depends on what the EU are willing to discuss.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

LeinsterDub · 26-11-2017 05:49PM

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

How does the British Government intend to square that circle?

The British government don't yet consider the issue being assulym seekers who once they've landed and make a claim must be processed in the UK. They consider the issue being immigration. Esscentially they will allow people enter with relative ease but people will need to prove their eligibility to work and avail of social services. Now how they do that without an national ID card will be interesting but outside the scope of this debate.

kowtow · 26-11-2017 05:51PM

Enzokk wrote: »

But how do you think a CTA can continue if you need to check passports/ID documents? That is not the definition of the Common Travel Area, but visa free travel. How does the UK take back control of immigration when it has an open border with the EU?

I fear that question has not been answered because the answer is simple and not one that the UK can give. The CTA will either end, or NI will be part of the customs union or the UK will be part of the single market or customs union. That is the only way you continue the CTA (British aim) and leave the EU.

I don't think the UK is even slightly concerned about the movement of people across the Irish EU border.

As I keep saying - the movement of people is only really a concern in so far as the benefits, housing, employment systems are involved and that is where it will be controlled, notwithstanding the rhetoric during the referendum campaign. In fact if you read the lecture transcript I posted earlier you will see that EU immigration / movement of people was pretty much an afterthought as recently as 2012-14 in terms of UK tensions with EU.

A Dub in Glasgo · 26-11-2017 05:52PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

I agree with your question. Why are people discussing this when it is already the stated position of the British Government.

You know damn well that AbG was not referring to a UK Govt position paper

26-11-2017 06:03PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

I agree with your question. Why are people discussing this when it is already the stated position of the British Government.

If your question means why won't the UK guarantee that the border will be open before the EU discuss phase 2. I've explained this. It's because the UK don't want to commit to single market and customs union membership which is what the Irish Government and the EU are trying to force them to do.

There are other options to explore. The UK are clear that they want the border open. It depends on what the EU are willing to discuss.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

I said this a couple of pages ago. Stop being so entitled about a trade agreement. The UK has to meet certain criteria and at the moment, they're falling short. That's not "force". They're free to walk away, the same as the EU.

I also find it weird that in the same post as explaining why the UK can't put it in writing, you ask us to trust that they will follow through with it anyway because it's their stated position. You ask for total trust, for nothing. I really don't understand.

And frankly, it's scumbag politics to use merely following the Good Friday Agreement as a bargaining chip in trade talks. The UK cannot be allowed to put the GFA on the table and say "We will follow this, if London banks gets passporting rights." Believing that's ok shows a lack of morals at best.

kowtow · 26-11-2017 06:05PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

For now yes. I am looking ahead at the logical conclusion of where this is going. As an Irish person in he UK you are an immigrant. You might blend in better than the Indians or whatever, but your situation is the same.

I was educated a long time ago, largely in the UK, in an extremely conservative environment. I am about as far as you can get from politically correct and I have genuine reservations about immigration.

But to me your statement above smacks of cheap racism.

Leroy42 · 26-11-2017 06:09PM

kowtow wrote: »

I was educated a long time ago, largely in the UK, in an extremely conservative environment. I am about as far as you can get from politically correct and I have genuine reservations about immigration.

But to me your statement above smacks of cheap racism.

Fine, but what part of it is wrong? I am not saying it to be provocative, is it not racist to claim that since one is Irish one will be treated differently?

solodeogloria · 26-11-2017 06:11PM

Good afternoon!

Leroy42 wrote: »

Ah ok, so you can only believe it when he says it completely. The fact that he said this morning that it is a negotiable position seems to have alluded you.

Yes, obviously I only believe someone holds to a position when they themselves say it. Anything else is utterly spurious.

Leroy42 wrote: »

Position paper. Really. Is that the same standing as 20bn is too much? What is the position then. I cannot find it. And it seems others can't either as otherwise there would be no discussions to be had.

The UK have published a position paper on the border. The honest thing to do here is to say that this is their position unless you've got something to the contrary.

Leroy42 wrote: »

Really? Because, again, the UK have said no such thing. They have said they would prefer it not to be there, but not as much as they want their red lines. If the EU continue on with the insistence that no border required CU membership do you envisage the UK government agreeing?

What are you talking about? You're replying to my claim that Varadkar and Coveney are being stupid in this part of your post. I'm struggling to see how this is relevant to what I said.

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yes we need a trade deal with the UK, but I already said that. The UK are clearly aware of that and trying to use Ireland as a bargaining chip. Kind of ruins the special relationship idea. And you are agreeing that the UK are basically threatening Ireland. If we don't side with them we don't get a trade deal, and yet you come on here claiming that the EU are being bullies!

The UK are expressing the simple position that trade and customs need to be addressed before the border is resolved. That's true.

Block discussions and you block a trade deal. I've yet to see how this is anything other than monumentally stupid for Ireland.

Leroy42 wrote: »

So have you missed the massive rise in attacks in immigrants since the vote. What makes you think you are so special? And perhaps you are well set up, good group of friends, plenty of contacts. But what about your kids, or their friends or the next wave of Irish that come over.

Those attacks are deplorable but I don't think Irish people are seen in the same way due to the special position Ireland has in Britain.

I don't think I'm unsafe here because there's sod all evidence for this position.

As for hypothetical kids (I don't have any) if they were brought up in the UK they would be raised British I suspect.

Leroy42 wrote: »

Well they already had that, but didn't like the conditions attached. SO they want to change the conditions. Nothing wrong in that, but if you want to change a deal you need to offer something in return.

The UK decided to leave by popular vote in 2016. There were clear downsides to EU membership which I and others highlighted. Now the UK is coming out.

I have zero interest in rehashing the referendum.

Leroy42 wrote: »

Ok, you completely missed the point. EU citizens had the same rights which are now being taken away. Apart from the UK loving the Irish, why exactly do you think people like Farrage etc will simply accept a continuing stream of Irish people taking their jobs.

My rights are secured under the Republic of Ireland Act, not under the EU primarily. These remain post-Brexit.

I don't know what point there is in engaging in empty fear mongering.

Leroy42 wrote: »

Lets say UK gets a great deal and in the process Ireland loses out. Where is the 1st place young Irish are going to go for work? UK. So instead of all these jobs for British, the Irish take a large portion of them. How do you think that will play out?

There are anti-discrimination laws in the UK which has one of the most trusted legal systems in the world. I don't know why you're creating such a nonsense scenario for the point of discussion.

I've never had a job interview where I wasn't considered on merit and skills in the UK.

Leroy42 wrote: »

Its not manipulative, just a different way that look at it. The UK already agreed this would be phase 1. Just like you are so against going back over the vote, why should EU go back over the agreed process. Border have existed long before trade and customs, and borders need not change because of changing rules.

This isn't true. The UK and the EU didn't agree to resolve the border issues completely in phase 1. The UK have made progress on cross border institutions and the CTA in this phase.

Leroy42 wrote: »

UK agreed to this process and should stick to its agreement. If they cannot even stick to an agreement such as this why would you, or anybody, believe anything they say?

As I've said this isn't true.

In fact there's nothing in this post so far that isn't a fictional scenario. Nothing you've said is based in reality.

Leroy42 wrote: »

But the government represents the people. And clearly the likes of Fox etc are blaming the current impasse on the Irish. There is no other way to look at it.

He's blaming it in part on the Irish Government. I agree with him. They are being mindblowingly stupid.

Leroy42 wrote: »

How do you know this?

The UK is a sufficiently big economy to weather even a no deal shock. I personally don't think we'll get there. There'll be a transitional deal with negotiation until 2021 or so.

Leroy42 wrote: »

For now yes. I am looking ahead at the logical conclusion of where this is going. As an Irish person in he UK you are an immigrant. You might blend in better than the Indians or whatever, but your situation is the same. You continue to think that you will always to treated as special. You realise that it was not non-EU immigration that was the issue, as the UK had full control over that, but EU immigration. All those EU citizens coming to the UK taking jobs etc. The people voted for that to stop. Ireland is part of the EU.

Again. Irish migrants aren't considered the same in Britain. But to be honest this is all tripe. I've not experienced any negative treatment in the UK and there's sod all evidence that I will apart from empty fear mongering. I'm very happy living here. There are lots of opportunities for me and I'm thankful for what God's given me since being here.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Enzokk · 26-11-2017 06:12PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

I agree with your question. Why are people discussing this when it is already the stated position of the British Government.

If your question means why won't the UK guarantee that the border will be open before the EU discuss phase 2. I've explained this. It's because the UK don't want to commit to single market and customs union membership which is what the Irish Government and the EU are trying to force them to do.

There are other options to explore. The UK are clear that they want the border open. It depends on what the EU are willing to discuss.

Are you talking about the UK position paper that was released in August 2017 that is devoid of any details? We are to go with that as our starting point for discussions.

UK Brexit position paper opposes Irish border posts

That paper that is really quite devoid of details, hence why we are asking questions here. The questions are the same as always as the answers that have been provided doesn't offer any clarity.

The UK wants a lot of things as well, it doesn't mean that it is possible to get these things. The UK wants to be in the customs union but wants to arrange their own trade deals. Can we take the UK position not as gospel but as aspirations for the best possible outcome? Because it doesn't seem possible that the UK can get all the things they want to have and leave the EU.

kowtow wrote: »

I don't think the UK is even slightly concerned about the movement of people across the Irish EU border.

As I keep saying - the movement of people is only really a concern in so far as the benefits, housing, employment systems are involved and that is where it will be controlled, notwithstanding the rhetoric during the referendum campaign. In fact if you read the lecture transcript I posted earlier you will see that EU immigration / movement of people was pretty much an afterthought as recently as 2012-14 in terms of UK tensions with EU.

Sure, but that is not what Nigel Farage was asking for. He was asking for control of their borders and a lot of voters will agree with him.

kowtow · 26-11-2017 06:20PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Fine, but what part of it is wrong? I am not saying it to be provocative, is it not racist to claim that since one is Irish one will be treated differently?

Not at all, it's a matter of historical and legal fact.

Irish people have always been absolutely free to go and live in the UK, and vice versa, an arrangement formalised by the CTA in the 1920's but no doubt reflecting the position as it had already been for many years.

Irish people can live, work, vote, and claim pensions in the UK immediately upon arrival there. They do not do so as EU citizens but as Irish citizens - my Mother, as a matter of fact, who is in her nineties, still has her main home there as she has done through most of the last fifty years or more and has never seen the need to change her Irish passport.

Just stop for a moment and consider what our Government's reaction would have been if UK ministers suggested that the Irish Ministers were incompetent, or that our voters had been stupid or ill informed when they voted in the EU referenda, and that they should enter a customs union with the UK in order to protect the Good Friday agreement. Our media would be incandescent at the perceived slight on this country.

When push comes to shove there really are close ties between Ireland and the UK, many families span both and will continue to do so despite the obvious cultural and political differences. A bit of mutual respect and understanding of each other's positions would move us forward a lot quicker than this grandstanding - and that applies to politicians (and voters, and commenters) on both sides of the Irish sea.

Schorpio · 26-11-2017 06:27PM

I've got a question for you Solo - something I'm genuinely curious about.

What would be your breaking point? What would need to happen before you would think 'oh, maybe Brexit wasn't such a good idea'?

I know it's happening, and nobody can change it. I've even mentioned in my previous post that the people voted for it, so I hope it does. But I need to know - after all of the bad things and the negativity that have happened, after all the flip-flops from the Tory government, after the DUP getting a say in Westminster (which, as an Irish person you should agree isn't wonderful) - where is your 'red line'?

solodeogloria · 26-11-2017 06:44PM

Schorpio wrote: »

I've got a question for you Solo - something I'm genuinely curious about.

What would be your breaking point? What would need to happen before you would think 'oh, maybe Brexit wasn't such a good idea'?

I know it's happening, and nobody can change it. I've even mentioned in my previous post that the people voted for it, so I hope it does. But I need to know - after all of the bad things and the negativity that have happened, after all the flip-flops from the Tory government, after the DUP getting a say in Westminster (which, as an Irish person you should agree isn't wonderful) - where is your 'red line'?

Good evening!

It is possible that Brexit can be implemented badly. I.E the Government not achieving a trade deal with the EU and not expanding trading relationships elsewhere but this wouldn't make me conclude that Brexit should be stopped. The UK isn't compatible with EU membership. It seems to go against the overriding political philosophy here.

I find a lot of the shibboleths on this thread interesting. You can't be Irish if you do X or you must think this if you're Irish. This is of course a highly flawed way of thinking.

The DUP arrangement is simply a result of Westminster arithmetic. I don't think the DUP are the spawn of the devil in much the same way I don't think Sinn Féin are. The British people didn't give May a majority (despite winning the biggest share for the Tories since Thatcher). Ideally from my perspective the Tories would have received a big enough share to govern on a more stable basis. You can't blame the DUP for taking the opportunity and for raising unionist concerns about an internal border.

My red lines for Brexit look quite similar to the British Government. Brexit must mean meaningfully taking back control of borders, money (inc trade policy) and laws.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

flaneur · 26-11-2017 06:48PM

Enzokk wrote: »

But how do you think a CTA can continue if you need to check passports/ID documents? That is not the definition of the Common Travel Area, but visa free travel. How does the UK take back control of immigration when it has an open border with the EU?

I fear that question has not been answered because the answer is simple and not one that the UK can give. The CTA will either end, or NI will be part of the customs union or the UK will be part of the single market or customs union. That is the only way you continue the CTA (British aim) and leave the EU.

I don’t think there’s likely to be much change on that.
As it stands, the CTA exists and Ireland and the UK operate independent visa and immigration regimes for non EU nationals.

I would assume the UK would just maintain the status quo and if someone moves illegally into the UK via the Republic, they would simply be unable to work legally there.

It’s very, very unlikely that they would restrict EU nationals from entering without any formal controls anyway. I would say they’ll have a 90 day or possibly more open visa waiver. The issue they’ll go after is “leave to remain” beyond 90 days and rights to work there.

The hugely disruptive bit for Ireland is a customs border as the CTA arrangement never covered that.

If the UK tore up the CTA, that would be a whole other problem entirely.

Basically we are looking at a return to how things were in the 1960s, not just 1993.

flatty · 26-11-2017 06:49PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Phil Hogan on why a FTA on it's own isn't much use for this Island or even the UK.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/25/phil-hogan-ireland-eu-commissioner-brexit-chaos

“I continue to be amazed at the blind faith that some in London place in theoretical future free trade agreements. First, the best possible FTA with the EU will fall far short of the benefits of being in the single market. This fact is simply not understood in the UK. Most real costs to cross-border business today are not tariffs – they are about standards, about customs procedures, about red tape. These are solved by the single market, but not in an FTA.”

This is a nice summation of how the UK's future trade talks will go. Nothing we haven't heard already, car crash stuff.

Hogan warned Britain may struggle to keep the 59 trade deals it now has through the EU on the same terms. “The UK would be running to stand still,” he said. “When it comes to trying to negotiate new FTAs with the rest of the world, Britain will be pushed around the way the EU – with currently more than eight times the UK population – will never be.

“The US have already started their attack on standards, so chlorine chicken and hormone beef for the British Sunday roast post-Brexit? India will insist on visas that the UK can never give. Australia and New Zealand are a long way away and of very limited economic interest. And any deal with China will be a one-way street in terms of costs and benefits for the UK.”

Britain’s former EU ambassador, Sir Ivan Rogers

“The internal market is an extraordinarily complex international law construct that simply doesn’t work in a way that permits the type of options that the current government is pushing for,”
...
We will not have reached a new equilibrium in British economics and politics until 2030.”

2030 that's a lot of uncertainty. How many investors know that , how many expansion plans will be put on hold ?

Project Fear from the London School of Economics

Thomas Sampson of the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance said Brexit could reduce UK living standards by up to 9% in the most pessimistic case.

Honestly, I think 9% is optimistic.

flaneur · 26-11-2017 06:56PM

It’s actually very hard to predict with any degree or accuracy as there’s a lot of unknown unknowns. A lot of faith is being placed in theoretical trade deals and their own negotiating skills.

The biggest risk would be a sudden change in market confidence in the UK economy and some kind of domino effect causing either a credit crash or a run on Sterling, or both.

What's worrying me is that there's very little coming from the British government at the moment that would give me confidence. It's all party politics and jingoism ahead of pragmatism.

Water John · 26-11-2017 07:03PM

The mention of Mo, brings the best of politics to mind. Sadly, very few of that quality in the present UK Parliament.
At least LB have stated that CU and Single Market are not off the table or red lines for them.

flaneur · 26-11-2017 07:21PM

I would add that the CTA is a bit of a weird and typically British, vague agreement. It's not legally binding for example. Unlike Schengen, is pretty much down to the goodwill and cooperation of the parties involved.

Also prior to 1952, there was a border between the island of Ireland and the island of Britain. It deeply offended the Northern Unionists.

Then you'd the 2008 attempt to reintroduce a similar border based on, largely groundless, fears about terrorist risks.

But, I wouldn't necessarily think the CTA is the most reliable thing to assume will always exist, particularly with the direction of current UK politics.

Quite a good lot of information on Wikipedia about it. The history of is isn't really as long standing as you'd think.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Travel_Area

Think of it as a link Schengen without a treaty, based on a nod, a wink and a lot of precedent.

Enzokk · 26-11-2017 07:28PM

flaneur wrote: »

I don’t think there’s likely to be much change on that.
As it stands, the CTA exists and Ireland and the UK operate independent visa and immigration regimes for non EU nationals.

I would assume the UK would just maintain the status quo and if someone moves illegally into the UK via the Republic, they would simply be unable to work legally there.

It’s very, very unlikely that they would restrict EU nationals from entering without any formal controls anyway. I would say they’ll have a 90 day or possibly more open visa waiver. The issue they’ll go after is “leave to remain” beyond 90 days and rights to work there.

The hugely disruptive bit for Ireland is a customs border as the CTA arrangement never covered that.

If the UK tore up the CTA, that would be a whole other problem entirely.

Basically we are looking at a return to how things were in the 1960s, not just 1993.

Sure, and the UK can decide who they allow into their country at their own will, but I don't know how someone can ask the country to take back control of their borders if they have an open border. There is passport/ID checks when you arrive in Ireland from the UK, but none when you travel the other way. That is not taking back control and for me its just a phrase used to justify leaving the EU by any means and by any reason.

Brexit discussion thread II

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