Brexit discussion thread II

ancapailldorcha · 26-11-2017 02:38PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I would not put it past this bunch of Tories and Brexiteers to start 'punishing' Irish people resident in the UK for the stance of the Irish Government - float the idea in the Tory press about taking away the rights of Irish people in the UK post Brexit

Think I might even have to vote Labour in that scenario. That's just petty hibernophobia right there, something I was hoping would remain buried in the past.

Professor Moriarty · 26-11-2017 02:44PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I don't understand that. Why can't the NI issue be resolved prior to trade talks? Do UK have a position or not? If it can only be resolved after trade talks then aren't they admitting that the don't actually have any position and are as likely to give up on NI as they are to stand firm.

There's the problem. The Tories can't even agree on what they want so how can the British government have a position? The problem started when the Brexiteers won a referendum that they hadn't expected to win. What is happening now is that the lies they told during the Leave campaign are being exposed. You can't build a credible negotiating position on wishful thinking and lies.

solodeogloria · 26-11-2017 02:48PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I would not put it past this bunch of Tories and Brexiteers to start 'punishing' Irish people resident in the UK for the stance of the Irish Government - float the idea in the Tory press about taking away the rights of Irish people in the UK post Brexit

Good afternoon!

This is unwelcome hysteria. It isn't helpful to anyone.

What I want as an Irish person living in the UK is a good deal. That's what everyone should want.

I won't permit the nonsense that British people somehow want to harm me as an Irish person when there's no evidence at all to suggest this.

The opposite is true. I've been made very welcome here and I've got no doubt that will continue.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

A Dub in Glasgo · 26-11-2017 02:49PM

This bit from Fox on Sky concerned me

"We have always had exceptions for Ireland - whether it's in our voting rights, our rights of residence in the UK, we have always accepted a certain asymmetry and that will have to be part of whatever agreement we come to with the European Union but we can't come to a final answer to the Irish question until we get an idea of the end state."

Capt'n Midnight · 26-11-2017 02:51PM

First Up wrote: »

All blindingly obvious to anyone who understands how international trade and supply chains work but it seems to be beyond the grasp of the Brexiteers.

The bit they fail to understand is how fine the margins are in competitiveness. A delay of hours at a border can knock you out of the game but the biggest problem is uncertainty. Companies all over the world are looking at their exposure to trade barriers with the UK and making contingency plans to find alternatives.

Examples here from the car industry. This isn't hand waving, these are specific and costed. It's almost as if they are planning ahead for Brexit, unlike the UK Govt.

https://www.ft.com/content/4f6907d8-c58b-11e7-b2bb-322b2cb39656
Honda - a 15 minute delay at customs at Dover will cost them £850,000
Ford - engines exported from Dagenham to Germany for Fiesta cars would require 20,000 separate declarations
Vauxhall - tens of millions in additional costs, (a 10% tariff to the Eu would cost it hundreds of millions)
Honda - only 600 UK companies are recognised as “authorised economic operators” compared to 5,000 in Germany. AEO is necessary to speed up going customs so expect a backlog in getting companies registered.

The bit about the UK's trade "deals" is especially pathetic. The Brexiteer line about negotiating all these wonderful new terms is jaw-droppingly niaive but continues to be trotted out, including by some posters here.

Again a reminder that because the quotas will be split between the UK and the EU , the countries that use those quotas to export to the EU will be affected by Brexit.

If they have to appease those countries then by definition they won't be able to get a new deal as good as the one they have under the EU.

Has anyone suggested any specific deal the UK could get with any country on better conditions than they already enjoy by being in the EU ?

An Claidheamh · 26-11-2017 02:51PM

flaneur wrote: »

It seems even The Guardian can manage to completely misrepresent the situation:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/24/irish-border-hard-brexit-ireland#comment-108742628

Facts don't seem to enter into the debate in the UK at all. Just imagine stuff and make it up!

They seem to think the Republic is utterly dependent on the UK for access to the outside world ...
If anything Northern Ireland's highly dependent on access to Dublin Airport and Dublin Port ro-ro and container freight as well as Rosslare for ro-ro and possibly Cork for continental container cargo.

Mind boggling ignorance of Ireland in the UK media.

Imagine Apple or Guinness moving to Larne because they must export from British approved places to the outside world. It's laughable!

It's mentioned in Guardian comments this bizarre statement.

It's also mentioned that this writer apparently supported Brexit.

Go figure.

Leroy42 · 26-11-2017 02:52PM

True, PM, but why is nobody, apart from the likes of Anna Soubry, not calling it out for that it is.

Look at some of the media in the UK. They are rabid in their desire to leave. Over the weekend we have the leader of the DUP telling the Taoiseach to mind his own business (despite the fact that that is exactly what he is doing) and the deputy leader calling Leo and Simon Cowboys.

I agree that the result was unexpected, by all sides, but that doesn't explain the performance since then. What possible good can Liam Fox think he will have by jumping in at this stage? Why are the people in the UK simply accepting this carry on?

An Claidheamh · 26-11-2017 02:55PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Ruth Dudley Edwards starts out in a reasonable fashion, highlighting Kenny's political negotiations after the referendum result, improved cross-border relations post-GFA, and Ireland's liberalisation in recent decades. Unfortunately, she then seems to consider Coveney as a rabid nationalist, cosies up to Ray Bassett, and advocates a nebulous "free trade Brexit" between Ireland and the UK:

https://amp.ft.com/content/eabdd85c-d12b-11e7-b781-794ce08b24dc

She's a nut who made a name for herself as a pseudo-expert in Britain as she's a British loyalist sympathiser.

She thinks she's a Brit.

Real loony.

Enzokk · 26-11-2017 03:05PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He's right. You can't solve the Irish border question without knowing the terms of the final deal. But Ireland and the EU want it solved before trade talks begin. It's chicken and egg. Tough luck, Liam, that conundrum is Britain's problem to solve.

He is right that it complicates the trade talks, not that it cannot be solved though. Too bad they already agreed that this needs to be solved before they can start trade talks. Tough luck indeed.

Anthracite · 26-11-2017 03:16PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

This is unwelcome hysteria. It isn't helpful to anyone.

What I want as an Irish person living in the UK is a good deal. That's what everyone should want.

We want a good deal too, for Ireland and the EU. The UK has decided it can do better on its own, so let them dig their own hole.

Anthracite · 26-11-2017 03:18PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Has anyone suggested any specific deal the UK could get with any country on better conditions than they already enjoy by being in the EU ?

Well they might get more talented people from India in a deal with them, but that won't go down well with the millions who voted Brexit because the EU was somehow filling the UK with brown people.

flaneur · 26-11-2017 03:20PM

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Imagine Apple or Guinness moving to Larne because they must export from British approved places to the outside world. It's laughable!

It's mentioned in Guardian comments this bizarre statement.

It's also mentioned that this writer apparently supported Brexit.

Go figure.

I think it's a part of a false narrative being pushed in the UK that there's a binary choice between EU or international trade, which makes out that the UK doesn't have access to global markets at all while in the EU.

That bit of "fake news" has become accepted as fact by many in Britian.

A lot of those expressing concern for Ireland would rather see us just jump with the UK and somehow we would all go back to being one happy family like we were throughout imaginary history. The English could go back to running the imaginary version of the empire where everyone joined voluntarily and they all played and danced.

The reality is we would be left with no trade deals. A small, open (vulnerable) economy and would be totally beholden to the UK for market access, without any formal agreement and being totally at the behest of British jingoistic, tabloid driven, irrational politics again.

Professor Moriarty · 26-11-2017 03:23PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

True, PM, but why is nobody, apart from the likes of Anna Soubry, not calling it out for that it is.

Have a look at these sites: The Mail, The Sun, The Telegraph and The Express. Tory MPs are terrified of these 'newspapers' because they can make or break them at election time.

Look at some of the media in the UK. They are rabid in their desire to leave. Over the weekend we have the leader of the DUP telling the Taoiseach to mind his own business (despite the fact that that is exactly what he is doing) and the deputy leader calling Leo and Simon Cowboys.

The DUP are just being the DUP. They have some leverage at the moment so they have slipped back into delusional ascendancy mode. They will eventually be told what to think and do once the parliamentary arithmetic changes.

I agree that the result was unexpected, by all sides, but that doesn't explain the performance since then. What possible good can Liam Fox think he will have by jumping in at this stage? Why are the people in the UK simply accepting this carry on?

It's mind-boggling isn't it? I actually have more respect for Fox than I do for Johnson and May. At least he's driven by ideology however unrealistic that ideology is. The people accept this madness because they have been conditioned by the anti-EU Tory press for decades. Think Pavlov's dogs.

Leroy42 · 26-11-2017 03:27PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

This is unwelcome hysteria. It isn't helpful to anyone.

What I want as an Irish person living in the UK is a good deal. That's what everyone should want.

Bit late to be calling out the hysteria, Farrage and the likes has been pushing that for years.

Can you not see that many in the UK, particularly those in power, are not interested in a good deal for anybody else, and it even appears for themselves, they are only interested in getting Brexit at whatever cost that might be.

Why do you think the Irish will be treated any different to the Europeans. Foreigners are being blamed, the EU is to blame. What do you think will happen when Brexit turns out not to be the utopia that it has been sold as.

Do you think the likes of Boris or Gove will simply accept that they were mistaken or do you think they will look for someone to blame? And that might well be the Irish. Coming over there taking their jobs. People like you in fact. How can you think you will insulated to that?

ArmaniJeanss · 26-11-2017 03:33PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good afternoon!

This is unwelcome hysteria. It isn't helpful to anyone.

What I want as an Irish person living in the UK is a good deal. That's what everyone should want.

I won't permit the nonsense that British people somehow want to harm me as an Irish person when there's no evidence at all to suggest this.

The opposite is true. I've been made very welcome here and I've got no doubt that will continue.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Not quite sure how anyone Irish wouldn't find this part of Fox's comment highly objectionable.

TheFantasticDrFox wrote:

"We have always had exceptions for Ireland - whether it's in our voting rights, our rights of residence in the UK, we have always accepted a certain asymmetry and that will have to be part of whatever agreement we come to with the European Union but we can't come to a final answer to the Irish question until we get an idea of the end state."

It's at best a patronising pat on the back about what the superior UK has done for us("we've always accepted"). And at worst can quite easily be read as a veiled threat. On my first read I took it as the latter.

26-11-2017 03:38PM

First Up wrote: »

Correct and well justified in that context.

Looking likely too as Arlene is insisting that NI goes down with the ship.

I wanna be a fly on the wall when Arlene goes home to Fermanagh to sell that one given just how much work/trade/family/friend relationships reach across the border daily. :pac:

Arlene is going down on that ship!

Leroy42 · 26-11-2017 03:43PM

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

I wanna be a fly on the wall when Arlene goes home to Fermanagh to sell that one given just how much work/trade/family/friend relationships reach across the border daily. :pac:

Arlene is going down on that ship!

It will go down brilliant. NI politics is black and white (or green and orange!). DUP supporters will happily go down with the ship once that ship is the HMS UK. The fact that a majority in NI voted to remain shows that DUP couldn't care less about democracy.

It's one thing saying that you will go along with the UK overall vote (all democracies have to run like that) but to be saying that they will go with whatever the UK government decides, no matter the local consequences , is bizarre. (in normal politics I mean, not in the case of NI)

Jim2007 · 26-11-2017 03:46PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

The opposite is true. I've been made very welcome here and I've got no doubt that will continue.

You are also young and lacking in experience. If Ireland uses it's veto, you'll gain a lot of experience of what it truly like to be Irish in the UK, very quickly!

flaneur · 26-11-2017 03:51PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Bit late to be calling out the hysteria, Farrage and the likes has been pushing that for years.

Can you not see that many in the UK, particularly those in power, are not interested in a good deal for anybody else, and it even appears for themselves, they are only interested in getting Brexit at whatever cost that might be.

Why do you think the Irish will be treated any different to the Europeans. Foreigners are being blamed, the EU is to blame. What do you think will happen when Brexit turns out not to be the utopia that it has been sold as.

Do you think the likes of Boris or Gove will simply accept that they were mistaken or do you think they will look for someone to blame? And that might well be the Irish. Coming over there taking their jobs. People like you in fact. How can you think you will insulated to that?

If the economy really does go down the pan, that's where I suspect the UK will flip into a 1970s style angry mess. I don't think it will be blamed on outsiders. I think you'll see the 48%+ who feel they have been screwed over will just get very, very angry.

I would fully expect a Winter of Discontent is coming, probably either 2018 or 2019.

People are totally underestimating the British left which has been largely sleeping for the past 30+ years. You've also got Scottish and even Welsh nationalism which will be ignited and who knows what might happen in Northern Ireland, particularly when CAP money stops flowing (89% of NI farm incomes or so I've read)

Leroy42 · 26-11-2017 03:57PM

flaneur wrote: »

If the economy really does go down the pan, that's where I suspect the UK will flip into a 1970s style angry mess. I don't think it will be blamed on outsiders. I think you'll see the 48%+ who feel they have been screwed over will just get very, very angry.

I would fully expect a Winter of Discontent is coming, probably either 2018 or 2019.

But for that to happen the very people who are to blame for the mess (certain parts of the media, Farrage, Boris etc) would need to simply accept it and move on.

Why would they do that? Is it not more likely that they will use their positions of power to pick out something else to blame? For the last 40 years each government has blamed the nebulous EU for many issues.

Once they leave, and as it current projections appear to suggest things do not magically improve, then who to blame? EU will be blamed for forcing a bad/no deal on a luckless UK, but that will only last so long. Then it have to be someone else.

26-11-2017 04:04PM

It feels like an awful lot of British people need to realise that their view of these potential trade talks is filled with an unrealistic sense of entitlement. They're leaving and there's a talks process to hopefully make it easier. If they go shafting member states, the trade talks don't happen. They're shafting Ireland by not putting what they've said in writing and this could end their preferential treatment.

They'd do well understand that they're basically a brand-new country since every relationship they have with the world has been through the EU.

26-11-2017 04:09PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

It will go down brilliant. NI politics is black and white (or green and orange!). DUP supporters will happily go down with the ship once that ship is the HMS UK.

I dont know about that if it starts to hit the locals hard in the pocket. So much business in Fermanagh goes on across the border and farming (with it EU payments) is also a big local money maker.

It will be different in areas further north.

flaneur · 26-11-2017 04:10PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

But for that to happen the very people who are to blame for the mess (certain parts of the media, Farrage, Boris etc) would need to simply accept it and move on.

Why would they do that? Is it not more likely that they will use their positions of power to pick out something else to blame? For the last 40 years each government has blamed the nebulous EU for many issues.

Once they leave, and as it current projections appear to suggest things do not magically improve, then who to blame? EU will be blamed for forcing a bad/no deal on a luckless UK, but that will only last so long. Then it have to be someone else.

That's my point - the UK isn't a homogeneous political environment. I think the country could turn very unstable for a while.

The Scots and probably the NI (including many unionists) will blame the English. Labour will develop amnesia and blame the Tories exclusively and I suspect the Brexiteers will blame everyone else except themselves.

In the medium term they'll probably act like big babies and rant and rave about how it's "so unfair" that the EU won't continue to treat them as if they're still a member state.

The biggest risk is a British credit crunch or banking crisis, a serious currency crisis or something like that which wouldn't have any obvious source of bail out and could result in absolute mayhem and would probably trigger a global financial problem.

flaneur · 26-11-2017 04:22PM

I'd also add that while I would say that Corbyn, most of labour and even centrist Tories like John Major have genuine concerns about the impact of Brexit on Ireland, the hardliners see us as nothing but an obstacle in the way of a hard Brexit.

The faux friendliness and concern will rapidly turn to outrage and mockery, as soon as they start to realise we aren't likely to follow them over the cliff.

solodeogloria · 26-11-2017 04:23PM

Good afternoon!

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Not quite sure how anyone Irish wouldn't find this part of Fox's comment highly objectionable.

I don't find it highly objectionable. He's referring to the special position of Irish people in the UK. He's right to say that this will more than likely continue.

From Googling around it seems like he also said that the nature of the border couldn't be finalised until there's a trade deal. I agree with him on this.

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

It's at best a patronising pat on the back about what the superior UK has done for us("we've always accepted"). And at worst can quite easily be read as a veiled threat. On my first read I took it as the latter.

I think that is just jumping prematurely.

Jim2007 wrote: »

You are also young and lacking in experience. If Ireland uses it's veto, you'll gain a lot of experience of what it truly like to be Irish in the UK, very quickly!

I don't think 6 and a half years of living in the UK means that I'm "lacking in experience".

If the Irish Government use the veto I will be the first to point out what a monumentally stupid decision that would be. I don't have to agree with Varadkar and Coveney. I've got no doubt that I'll be treated in the same way that I am now. My friends mercifully aren't as fickle as you seem to suggest.

Leroy42 wrote: »

Can you not see that many in the UK, particularly those in power, are not interested in a good deal for anybody else, and it even appears for themselves, they are only interested in getting Brexit at whatever cost that might be.

Of course Brexit is going to happen. That's what was settled in 2016. That's reality.

The question is how to progress. I think the UK are willing to come to a positive arrangement and I hope the EU will be.

Leroy42 wrote: »

Why do you think the Irish will be treated any different to the Europeans. Foreigners are being blamed, the EU is to blame. What do you think will happen when Brexit turns out not to be the utopia that it has been sold as.

The special relationship this country has with Ireland predates the EU.

Leroy42 wrote: »

Do you think the likes of Boris or Gove will simply accept that they were mistaken or do you think they will look for someone to blame? And that might well be the Irish. Coming over there taking their jobs. People like you in fact. How can you think you will insulated to that?

I don't think people see the Irish people in that way. In fact I don't even think many people would use the word "immigrant" to describe me apart from myself. Most people know and understand the closeness between the UK and Ireland. I personally hope that Coveney and Varadkar don't begin to screw that up.

I think my friends and my colleagues will see me in the same light irrespective of the stupid things the Irish Government may be about to do.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

flaneur · 26-11-2017 04:27PM

@Solodegloria, that's only true to a point. I've been told in no uncertain terms to both butt out of English political debate (while living in England) and also been told to f - off back to my own country twice by people "up north".

It's all fine and well when you're dealing with the very cosmopolitan London or other urban bubbles. I have English (not Irish émigrés) family in the most conservative parts of Yorkshire and I've been on plenty of nights out in local pubs and I can assure you, we're not considered to be in the same club up there at all.

There's a massive difference between the cosmopolitan cities, the wealthier coastal regions in the south and the brexit heartlands of old working class England.

There is a closeness a bit like the way a divorced couple are close but, I've also lived in France and I've never felt particularly unwelcome there either. Actually in some ways, because there's no history of animosities between the Irish and the French I've actually felt quite "at home" in the West of France. Yeah, there's a language barrier, but once you've traversed that, I didn't really see any issues at all.

Likewise, I've lived in the USA and I have to say that culturally speaking, I felt extremely welcome and fitted in just fine. Obviously there are legal issues around just moving there unless you've a visa but, culturally and interpersonally I felt right a home and I found I could also talk politics with Americans without any issue. The same in France actually too. They're quite happy to critique anything, as long as you're not just being nasty for the sake of slagging them off.

There’s a historical relationship with England and the UK but I wouldn’t over state it either. We are quite capable of having disagreements and mutually opposed policies and that is completely healthy.

I don’t think the majority of UK folks necessarily expect us to just agree with Theresa May. For every person that’s furious with Varadkar, there’s probably someone else who thinks he’s great for sticking it to the Brexiteers! We’re annoying one, narrow aspect of British politics. They’ll get over it.

26-11-2017 04:39PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

From Googling around it seems like he also said that the nature of the border couldn't be finalised until there's a trade deal. I agree with him on this.

It's farcical to suggest that Northern Ireland and the UK's borders can only be determined by the skills of their negotiating team when dealing with the EU. If "taking back power" means not even being able to make internal decisions about regions and borders, then the British public really have been duped.

Northern Ireland should be out on the streets protesting at its entire future being at the mercy of what England can get from the EU in some trade talks. How they feel any attachment to London is beyond me.. Fox just laid it out that they're pawns.

26-11-2017 04:39PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

I don't think people see the Irish people in that way. In fact I don't even think many people would use the word "immigrant" to describe me apart from myself. Most people know and understand the closeness between the UK and Ireland. I personally hope that Coveney and Varadkar don't begin to screw that up.

I think my friends and my colleagues will see me in the same light irrespective of the stupid things the Irish Government may be about to do.

I think they are going to have to get their head around certain facts.
- We are a separate independent country.
- We have to look after the interests of our own citizens including those in the north, voters in the shires are not our concern.
- They have deals with us that they cannot simply decide to walk away from painlessly.
- Also we are not the enemy, we can be an ally if they could just make up their minds what the hell that they want.

26-11-2017 04:44PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

The special relationship this country has with Ireland predates the EU.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

That "special relationship" as they call it was a red hot mess from the foundation of the state until the last 20/25 years.

Leroy42 · 26-11-2017 04:45PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

I don't find it highly objectionable. He's referring to the special position of Irish people in the UK. He's right to say that this will more than likely continue.

Although he is part of a group of people actively looking to break the current relationship! The UK/Ireland relationship is presently pretty good, yet that formed no part in their decision. Why would you think it will form any part of their decisions about any deal?

solodeogloria wrote: »

From Googling around it seems like he also said that the nature of the border couldn't be finalised until there's a trade deal. I agree with him on this.

You don't need google, it has been pointed out by many on here that no such condition exists. The only reading of that is that the border is a negotiable position, UK have no position either way. They will happily give it up to get their overall aim. The opposite is also true. On that basis you need to consider you acceptance of their word.

solodeogloria wrote: »

If the Irish Government use the veto I will be the first to point out what a monumentally stupid decision that would be. I don't have to agree with Varadkar and Coveney. I've got no doubt that I'll be treated in the same way that I am now. My friends mercifully aren't as fickle as you seem to suggest.

So its ok for the UK to threaten to walk away (no deal) but wrong of the Irish to use leverage they have? I bet the Poles, and Romanians etc felt the same way as you as few years ago, not so much anymore. Maybe your friends will continue to be ok, but its the wider society you have to worry about. When you go to the next job interview will you be treated the same as the UK guy going for the job?

solodeogloria wrote: »

Of course Brexit is going to happen. That's what was settled in 2016. That's reality.

Oh wow, we are back to this. Who said it wasn't going to happen? It about how it happens. The UK only voted for Brexit, they gave no indication of what that actually meant. The best that May seems to be able to state is that Brexit means Brexit.

solodeogloria wrote: »

The question is how to progress. I think the UK are willing to come to a positive arrangement and I hope the EU will be.

Correct, but what does that mean. Positive for who? Because Ireland is being used as a negotiation piece at present. Do you think the EU should be concerned with how this effects the UK or how it effects the EU, because it seems that the UK seems them as mutually exclusive.

solodeogloria wrote: »

The special relationship this country has with Ireland predates the EU.

So what. It has changed because of the EU. Ireland will no longer be tied directly to the UK, as it was in the past, and based on the current course will be asked which to go with as it cannot have both.

Not much of a special relationship when Ireland is basically being told to wait until the UK gets what it wants before it will even state its position on something that could have a significant impact on Ireland.

solodeogloria wrote: »

I don't think people see the Irish people in that way. In fact I don't even think many people would use the word "immigrant" to describe me apart from myself. Most people know and understand the closeness between the UK and Ireland. I personally hope that Coveney and Varadkar don't begin to screw that up.

I think my friends and my colleagues will see me in the same light irrespective of the stupid things the Irish Government may be about to do.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

So this is all the Irish fault? Really? UK were a major part of Europe for 40+ years, but that changed last year. Now they want out, apparently regardless of the damage it might do to themselves or others. You do realise that the past is only an indication of what might happen, it doesn't guarantee it. Especially when circumstances change.

I really find your blind faith to Brexit quite confusing. No matter what evidence is put in front of you you seem unwilling to even consider that Brexit is not as great a plan as it was sold. That there are many areas that the government simply has no plan for and that kicking the can to phase 2 is just that. It is not part of some complex plan, Fox et al simply do not know.

Yes it is likely that the Irish will continue to have relationship with the UK, but the logical outcome of the present thinking within the UK that immigration is a massive problem is that at some point all immigrants will be covered. To simply hope that you aren't effect is just that, hope

Brexit discussion thread II

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