Brexit discussion thread II

Water John · 10-11-2017 10:13AM

Seems we are now into crunch/reality time.
The malign influence of the DUP will show its hand. Ulster says No, has a new meaning.

LeinsterDub · 10-11-2017 10:17AM

An internal EU paper has suggested that the avoidance of a hard border on the island of Ireland effectively requires Northern Ireland to remain in the single market and the customs union.

Has the fat lady started to sing? There is no way the DUP will accept this unless the rest of the UK is in too and there is no way May and the hardcore will accept being in.

Nothing left to talk about folks?

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/1109/918860-northern-irish-border-after-brexit/

solodeogloria · 10-11-2017 10:42AM

Good morning!

As predicted it's looking like there will be movements on both sides before December's summit and it is a trade-off for transitional terms. Yet again it's looking like the figure is broadly speaking €50bn gross. By the time British payments are excluded and the rebate and the European Investment Bank stake is included I suspect we're looking at around £36bn net.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

LeinsterDub · 10-11-2017 10:44AM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

As predicted it's looking like there will be movements on both sides before December's summit and it is a trade-off for transitional terms. Yet again it's looking like the figure is broadly speaking €50bn gross. By the time British payments are excluded and the rebate and the European Investment Bank stake is included I suspect we're looking at around £36bn net.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Can't open that link. A small quote perhaps? Are you just going to ignore the NI issue?

steddyeddy · 10-11-2017 10:45AM

The Telegraph having a field day with Irish developments. The Telegraph says Ireland has taken a "toughened stance". No, Ireland's simply paying respect to the GFA, unlike May who has aligned herself with loyalists.

Brexit talks thrown into chaos after Ireland makes fresh border demands in leaked document

British hopes of opening Brexit trade and transition talks this December were thrown into renewed doubt as it emerged that Ireland is making fresh demands over the Northern Ireland border question, the Telegraph can reveal.

The toughened Irish stance, reflected in a leaked European Commission document obtained by The Telegraph, blindsided British officials at Brexit negotiations in Brussels on Thursday as Ireland piled on pressure in the talks.

British officials had believed that question of how to avoid creating a hard Irish border when the UK quits the EU single market and customs union had been ‘parked’ until the EU opened talks over trade and the future relationship.

steddyeddy · 10-11-2017 10:48AM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

As predicted it's looking like there will be movements on both sides before December's summit and it is a trade-off for transitional terms. Yet again it's looking like the figure is broadly speaking €50bn gross. By the time British payments are excluded and the rebate and the European Investment Bank stake is included I suspect we're looking at around £36bn net.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

I don't think there's movement on the UK side. There's just a realisation of the weak position they're in.

LeinsterDub · 10-11-2017 10:51AM

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/truckers-to-face-9km-tailbacks-at-dublin-port-after-brexit-36306545.html

Dublin Port could face 9km tailbacks of trucks and will need three hectares of extra space to cope with a full customs regime being reintroduced as a result of Brexit, the British Irish Chamber of Commerce has warned.
A worst-case scenario Brexit, with the reintroduction of a full customs regime, would mean stopping all of the 400,000 trucks a year that cross from Dublin to Holyhead and back, the chamber's director general John McGrane told the Irish Independent.

It very much looks like we are heading to a worse that worst-case scenario with no deal and bitterness on both sides. We need to start preparing.

steddyeddy · 10-11-2017 10:52AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/truckers-to-face-9km-tailbacks-at-dublin-port-after-brexit-36306545.html

It very much looks like we are heading to a worse that worst-case scenario with no deal and bitterness on both sides. We need to start preparing.

We do indeed. This will be a major economic set-back for Ireland too.

LeinsterDub · 10-11-2017 10:53AM

steddyeddy wrote: »

I don't think there's movement on the UK side. There's just a realisation of the weak position they're in.

Certainly not movement on the EU side who have always maintained the line tell us how much you owe us and we'll talk. The UK can throw out all the figures it wants but we still need to figure out who ordered the 5 craft beers and who ordered the extra garlic bread.

Professor Moriarty · 10-11-2017 10:56AM

steddyeddy wrote: »

The Telegraph having a field day with Irish developments. The Telegraph says Ireland has taken a "toughened stance". No, Ireland's simply paying respect to the GFA, unlike May who has aligned herself with loyalists.

The British believed that the issue of the border had been parked? That's a lie.

steddyeddy · 10-11-2017 10:58AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The British believed that the issue of the border had been parked? That's a lie.

It is indeed. The Telegraph is basically the Express for middle class people. It's a rag.

LeinsterDub · 10-11-2017 10:58AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The British believed that the issue of the border had been parked? That's a lie.

You'd think the phrase 3 core issues would be fairly self explanatory?

sink · 10-11-2017 10:59AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/truckers-to-face-9km-tailbacks-at-dublin-port-after-brexit-36306545.html

It very much looks like we are heading to a worse that worst-case scenario with no deal and bitterness on both sides. We need to start preparing.

More direct ferry services from the continental mainland seems like it would make more sense than trying to find room in Dublin Port. Most of the imports from Holyhead are coming from the continental mainland. Unfortunately it will cost more and take more time, but that's the cost of Brexit.

Nody · 10-11-2017 11:00AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/truckers-to-face-9km-tailbacks-at-dublin-port-after-brexit-36306545.html

It very much looks like we are heading to a worse that worst-case scenario with no deal and bitterness on both sides. We need to start preparing.

To late for that; here's the simple fact and it goes far beyond Ireland. UK will not be able to ship out goods at the current rate to EU because there's simply not space on the EU side to go through the inspections. This includes the time to build facilities (4 years for the labs required for animals & fresh products required in Calais for example) to the time to train additional staff (4 year in Germany, 2 years in France and the people would only be available in 2020 as the recruitment is now for the 2018 intake etc.).

Will there need to be additional space? Yes. Will it require to hold the current UK volumes? Heck no because that's UK's problem and once the space is filled then the trucks get to wait until space frees up on UK's side of the border since the trucks would simply be refused to leave the ferry. Once that reality kicks in expect to see significant drops of UK volume to EU as the supply lines will be rerouted and the actual volume required will appear which I'd guesstimate at 50% or less of today for actual inspection (plenty of empty trucks coming out of UK as today though!).

Professor Moriarty · 10-11-2017 11:06AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

You'd think the phrase 3 core issues would be fairly self explanatory?

None so blind as those who will not see. They are simply hand waving reality away.

flatty · 10-11-2017 11:49AM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The British believed that the issue of the border had been parked? That's a lie.

It is indeed. The Telegraph is basically the Express for middle class people. It's a rag.

Actually it isn't. Iirc, it has more boots on the ground foreign correspondents than most other papers. It's actually not as bad as you'd be led to believe. I'm surprised at this shoite it's published. Maybe I'm just too infrequent a reader of it or any other paper.

First Up · 10-11-2017 12:00PM

May has some deciding to do. If Brexit is to progress, the Irish issue must be resolved to the EU's satisfaction, which means protecting the GFA, protecting the integrity of the EU's external border and protecting Ireland's status in the Single Merket. That increasingly looks like being something that will cause the DUP to walk away.

So another UK election is on the horizon with all the possibilities that brings.

Start your engines.

Gerrup Outta Dat! · 10-11-2017 12:18PM

There’s a place called Coleman Island. It’s in Co Monaghan. However, it’s only accessible by road by dipping into NI.

If a hard Brexit happens and all but main arterial roads stay open. What will happen Coleman island?

Will they be annexed like West Berlin in East Germany?

Will ROI surrender that bit of land to the UK?

Will ROI build new roads into Coleman Island?

If a hard brexit does happen and they insist on policing the border, will it be financially worthwhile to police two border crossings to get to a Monaghan townland where all but 20 or 30 people live?

Nody · 10-11-2017 12:26PM

Gerrup Outta Dat! wrote: »

If a hard brexit does happen and they insist on policing the border, will it be financially worthwhile to police two border crossings to get to a Monaghan townland where all but 20 or 30 people live?

The easiest (hence most likely) solution is to pull back the border control up to one or two km into Ireland (all depending on the local road & country layout) and simply do the checks border checks there. Now that does not stop UK from adding multiple border controls on their side but realistically I'd expect a relative lax, if any, controls because they can rely on Ireland (and EU standards). That is before they get hit with the tax frauds etc. but that's how I envision the start of it if there's to be a hard border control.

First Up wrote: »

May has some deciding to do. If Brexit is to progress, the Irish issue must be resolved to the EU's satisfaction, which means protecting the GFA, protecting the integrity of the EU's external border and protecting Ireland's status in the Single Merket. That increasingly looks like being something that will cause the DUP to walk away.

So another UK election is on the horizon with all the possibilities that brings.

Start your engines.

It's actually quite bad; let's say she gets pushed out/calls for a GE in January/February. We'd take let's say 3 months to the GE in May. Now new government comes in May and has until October to finalize the basic three and a trade agreement and what not to meet the deadline (remember without the basic 3 resolved no extension is possible). Simply put with Corbyn in power (only alternative) it's not going to happen as Labour is as split as Tory on the question of EU in the first place. If anything it will only add confusion and diffuse the blame; I'd rather see Tories in power all the way through to the crash out to ensure the blame is fairly and squarely in one corner.

Professor Moriarty · 10-11-2017 12:31PM

flatty wrote: »

Actually it isn't. Iirc, it has more boots on the ground foreign correspondents than most other papers. It's actually not as bad as you'd be led to believe. I'm surprised at this shoite it's published. Maybe I'm just too infrequent a reader of it or any other paper.

I check it out most days. Its tone and content is designed to reaffirm white middle class Little Englander notions about race, Britannia, class and gender. Much of its reportage is coloured in this way. Sometimes the bias is subtle and other times it's blatant - as in this case.

Gerrup Outta Dat! · 10-11-2017 12:33PM

What if it forces us out of the EU?

Nody · 10-11-2017 12:37PM

Gerrup Outta Dat! wrote: »

What if it forces us out of the EU?

How? All Ireland has to do (and yes it's a big thing to do but it's done in multiple countries already) is to implement border control at the north.

LeinsterDub · 10-11-2017 12:38PM

Gerrup Outta Dat! wrote: »

What if it forces us out of the EU?

Quite frankly simply impossible . You can't be forced out.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_from_the_European_Union#Suspension

Zubeneschamali · 10-11-2017 12:43PM

Nody wrote: »

We'd take let's say 3 months to the GE in May. Now new government comes in May and has until October to finalize the basic three and a trade agreement and what not to meet the deadline

Corbyn would immediately call for an extension of A50 blaming the bumbling Tory fools currently doing the negotiating. EU side: How long would you like, Mr. Corbyn?

Zubeneschamali · 10-11-2017 12:45PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I(the Torygraph)...Its tone and content is designed to reaffirm white middle class Little Englander notions about race, Britannia, class and gender.

Yet even the Torygraph, pre Referendum, had the sense to know that leaving the Single Market and Customs Union was lunacy. They repeatedly called on the Leave campaign to explicitly state that a Norway model was the goal of Brexit.

They were ignored.

Nody · 10-11-2017 12:51PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Corbyn would immediately call for an extension of A50 blaming the bumbling Tory fools currently doing the negotiating. EU side: How long would you like, Mr. Corbyn?

EU already talks with Corbyn to ensure the current agreement(s) will be followed to avoid that (beyond the fact Corbyn has not exactly shown himself as a strong EU supporter in the first place).

Zubeneschamali · 10-11-2017 12:56PM

Nody wrote: »

EU already talks with Corbyn to ensure the current agreement(s) will be followed to avoid that (beyond the fact Corbyn has not exactly shown himself as a strong EU supporter in the first place).

Corbyn doesn't have to be an EU supporter to want to negotiate a smooth exit. Faced with chaotic Brexit or extending article 50, this is a no-brainer for the EU side.

Professor Moriarty · 10-11-2017 12:56PM

Nody wrote: »

EU already talks with Corbyn to ensure the current agreement(s) will be followed to avoid that (beyond the fact Corbyn has not exactly shown himself as a strong EU supporter in the first place).

I firmly believe that if Corbyn had stood up to the plate for Remain then Leave would have lost. His 'support' was lukewarm at best.

Zubeneschamali · 10-11-2017 01:07PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I firmly believe that if Corbyn had stood up to the plate for Remain then Leave would have lost. His 'support' was lukewarm at best.

Maybe so, but who would you prefer to have negotiating Brexit - David Davis with May and Boris behind him, or Keir Starmer with Corbyn?

First Up · 10-11-2017 01:13PM

The most likely outcome of a UK election is a hung parliament, within which the two main parties are also divided.

We'll see where that takes it, but it won't be in a straight line. The consequences of that for UK investment and trade is potentially horrific.

Brexit discussion thread II

Comments