The Daily bets, Banter & Accumulators thread IV

seanhynes · 02-11-2017 09:02PM

Willian Jose brace 3.00
Smaller on hatrick at 10.0

4 for him in the leg in Macedonia, I'd expect a thumping again it's a decent Sociedad XI named

rekluse · 02-11-2017 09:07PM

Bate + 1 and Steau @ almost 3/1

seanhynes · 02-11-2017 11:01PM

seanhynes wrote: »

Willian Jose brace 3.00
Smaller on hatrick at 10.0

4 for him in the leg in Macedonia, I'd expect a thumping again it's a decent Sociedad XI named

dung, better to skip the following nights games in Europe after a decent one

PopePalpatine · 02-11-2017 11:04PM

Better to skip the Europa League in general. The group stages must be like Christmas for bookies just for the amount of muggy accas which get placed.

Burial. · 02-11-2017 11:25PM

Any of ye wander into the soccer betting subreddit? I usually have a gawk to see if any of the handful of real wizards in there are posting something insightful but the daily live thread they do is equally hilarious and tragic. Pure and utter rage spam and frustration followed by the most ridiculous ways of chasing loses.

rekluse · 02-11-2017 11:32PM

rekluse wrote: »

Bate + 1 and Steau @ almost 3/1

Absolute dirt, but expect to lose as it's the Europa. Roll on the weekend.

PopePalpatine · 03-11-2017 01:11AM

Burial. wrote: »

Any of ye wander into the soccer betting subreddit? I usually have a gawk to see if any of the handful of real wizards in there are posting something insightful but the daily live thread they do is equally hilarious and tragic. Pure and utter rage spam and frustration followed by the most ridiculous ways of chasing loses.

If you think the saltiness on that subreddit's live threads is bad, the Discord server will give you a heart attack or a stroke.

Division · 03-11-2017 01:14PM

Burial. wrote: »

Any of ye wander into the soccer betting subreddit? I usually have a gawk to see if any of the handful of real wizards in there are posting something insightful but the daily live thread they do is equally hilarious and tragic. Pure and utter rage spam and frustration followed by the most ridiculous ways of chasing loses.

Complete waste of time.

All those wizards keep talking about models but won't answer questions as it might give away their model which is total nonsense in the case of 99% of questions.

Experienced bettors leave quickly as the conversation is usually day 1 stuff and the average standard is what you expect from someone in their first couple of months betting.

Imo there is a big need for a private pay to join forum or a forum you earn your way into by providing tips and being admitted by current members if you're good enough.

Burial. · 03-11-2017 02:22PM

Starting to enjoy betting again. Not having to check scores ever ten mins and fretting over whether to cash out a treble or not is bliss. I just put down a bet and forget about it until I decide to mark it into my excel sheet. I'm really enjoying picking out value singles and using more stats to inform my picks. Decided to start from scratch with a noob bankroll and strict bankroll management of 1-2% per bet. In the last 8 days or so I've made 115 picks with 33.9% win, average odds being @3.39. Only a few units down from start but recent days have been considerably better than the start. I must open a Pinnacle account soon. Pulling and manipulating stats into a model of sorts is a very very slow work in progress. Still too thick to grasp it and I'm a bit of a perfectionist which delays everything.

20 picks for today, including:
Palermo @3
Sparta Rotterdam @3.2
Horsens @3.2
PSV Reserves @3.3

Opinions on Double Chance vs Draw No Bet? Which one has more value long term or is it too close to even worry about?

Danick · 03-11-2017 04:03PM

Eerste Divisie over 2.5 goals treble for this evening:
Almere v AZ reserves
Utrecht Reserves v Eindhoven
Telstar v GA Eagles

Comes in at 3.6

Good luck with bets this evening guys

Division · 03-11-2017 04:25PM

Burial. wrote: »

Starting to enjoy betting again. Not having to check scores ever ten mins and fretting over whether to cash out a treble or not is bliss. I just put down a bet and forget about it until I decide to mark it into my excel sheet. I'm really enjoying picking out value singles and using more stats to inform my picks. Decided to start from scratch with a noob bankroll and strict bankroll management of 1-2% per bet. In the last 8 days or so I've made 115 picks with 33.9% win, average odds being @3.39. Only a few units down from start but recent days have been considerably better than the start. I must open a Pinnacle account soon. Pulling and manipulating stats into a model of sorts is a very very slow work in progress. Still too thick to grasp it and I'm a bit of a perfectionist which delays everything.

20 picks for today, including:
Palermo @3
Sparta Rotterdam @3.2
Horsens @3.2
PSV Reserves @3.3

Opinions on Double Chance vs Draw No Bet? Which one has more value long term or is it too close to even worry about?

Depends on a game by game basis. I price up each game but don't have stats over a wide range of games to see which has shown the most value in the long term. I tend to favour DNB if the value is similar.

Thats a huge number of picks in an 8 day period but its better you bet like this than what sounds like before that you were vastly overbetting your bankroll and nervous about every game.

I believe in specialisation but if someone can make a model that works over many leagues - which is very very complex - and can update it as necessary they stand to make a lot of money.

Generally the closer to the game you are the more accurate the odds will be so get those bets on early.

How many variables are you factoring into your model?

eurokev · 03-11-2017 04:30PM

Neims,ajaccio, 1860, botev, midtyjlland,nec & rodez are making up a few different combo accas for me today.

All are at home, in form, scoring goals, and high up the table. Opponents are all much further down respective tables with patchy away form and conceding plenty.

byronbay2 · 03-11-2017 04:58PM

Burial. wrote: »

Opinions on Double Chance vs Draw No Bet? Which one has more value long term or is it too close to even worry about?

When I find a team that I think is likely to win but is *very* unlikely to lose, I will ALWAYS do DC rather than DNB, unless the odds are very short i.e shorter than 1.5. Obviously, the odds for DC are shorter than DNB but you then have 2 of the 3 possible outcomes being a winner for you rather than the draw being a push.

Backing less-fancied teams DC has been an absolute money-spinner for me over the past few years (in particular Leicester the season they won the PL) and has been the most profitable part of my gambling. This weekend Burnley and Watford are looking attractive candidates but I have made no decisions yet. I nearly always wait to see the teams (unless a bet is absolutely obvious), even if it means I sometimes lose a little bit on the price.

Burial. · 03-11-2017 05:12PM

Division wrote: »

Depends on a game by game basis. I price up each game but don't have stats over a wide range of games to see which has shown the most value in the long term. I tend to favour DNB if the value is similar.

Thats a huge number of picks in an 8 day period but its better you bet like this than what sounds like before that you were vastly overbetting your bankroll and nervous about every game.

I believe in specialisation but if someone can make a model that works over many leagues - which is very very complex - and can update it as necessary they stand to make a lot of money.

Generally the closer to the game you are the more accurate the odds will be so get those bets on early.

How many variables are you factoring into your model?

I've been doing DCs for now but I think I might experiment with DNBs for a month and see what happens.

Yeah quite a lot of volume but it's just a case of me going on Flashscore and scoping whatever looks tasty and there happens to be a lot from what I can tell. Although I'm betting on a lot of the main European leagues I'm not going full degen betting stuff Peru Division 2 and Venezuelan U19 although who's to say there's not tonnes of value there. Basically any league I know I can find a few sources of info and stats I'll check and then save anything that looks nice to research.

English leagues seem to be tough enough to get value, especially PL and Championship to a lesser degree. League 1 and 2 are a little wild so there's definitely potential there. I'm enjoying the Scandinavian leagues as there's decent amounts of info out there on them and doesn't seem to be getting lumps of money pumped on it sharpening the line.

Yeah usually a day in advance is when I'm placing my bets.

No model as of now. I'm researching and learning whenever I can and until then I have just been spamming multiple stat websites along with Flashscore and trying to piece together things and find some parallels between them. I do have a rough formula in my head of what I am doing now but it's still very unreliable.

inforfun · 03-11-2017 05:54PM

Muhren (Sparta) 2.88
Hendriks (GA Eagles) 2.2
AGS

on 888sport.
Muhren better odds on Paddy Power

Autochange · 03-11-2017 07:41PM

How are we feeling about Wolves today v Fulham.

Wolves obviously top of the table and had a good 2 nil win over Norwich during the week. Fulham are out having a bad season so far and are out of form.

Dio On The Doubles · 03-11-2017 08:27PM

Taken Roy O' Donovan anytime @2.20 in Newcastle Jets v Wellington Phoenix game in Aussie A League tomorrow morning on bet365.. Opened @1.97 on 888 on Monday, they are usually best price on this market. He's odds on with any other bookie presently.

Also smaller on on Roy O Donovan first goal scorer @5.50 on bet365

Its usually a goal happy encounter between these two. Newcastle have previously struggled for goals but Roy has brought them back.

http://ie.soccerway.com/matches/2017/11/04/australia/a-league/newcastle-jets-fc/wellington-phoenix/2478909/head2head/

He moved from Central Coast Mariners this summer and scored a first half hat trick against them on first day of the season (sound man or what!) . He has scored every weekend since (including first goal scorer two times) bar last weekend when he hit a blank for first time (season is five weeks in now)

I fancy him to get back to scoring ways this Saturday. He'll start if fit.

Danick · 03-11-2017 09:32PM

Danick wrote: »

Eerste Divisie over 2.5 goals treble for this evening:
Almere v AZ reserves
Utrecht Reserves v Eindhoven
Telstar v GA Eagles

Comes in at 3.6

Good luck with bets this evening guys

In with 16 mins to spare - good start to the weekend

eurokev · 03-11-2017 09:52PM

eurokev wrote:

Neims,ajaccio, 1860, botev, midtyjlland,nec & rodez are making up a few different combo accas for me today.

eurokev wrote:

All are at home, in form, scoring goals, and high up the table. Opponents are all much further down respective tables with patchy away form and conceding plenty.

Feck

Ajaccio were the only team to let me down.
Unfortunately I had them in all my accas.
Hopefully some of ye were more careful with the above, I kind of rushed my acca construction today, and looking at them there again definitely would not have included ajaccio in so many.

Trimm Trabb · 03-11-2017 10:17PM

eurokev wrote: »

Feck

Ajaccio were the only team to let me down.
Unfortunately I had them in all my accas.
Hopefully some of ye were more careful with the above, I kind of rushed my acca construction today, and looking at them there again definitely would not have included ajaccio in so many.

Comisserations, followed you on Nimes and NEC and added in Wolves so made a good night for me. Cheers.

inforfun · 04-11-2017 08:18AM

inforfun wrote: »

Muhren (Sparta) 2.88
Hendriks (GA Eagles) 2.2
AGS

on 888sport.
Muhren better odds on Paddy Power

Muhren > nope
Hendriks > yep

inforfun · 04-11-2017 08:20AM

eurokev wrote: »

Feck

Ajaccio were the only team to let me down.
Unfortunately I had them in all my accas.
Hopefully some of ye were more careful with the above, I kind of rushed my acca construction today, and looking at them there again definitely would not have included ajaccio in so many.

Maybe this will make you feel less alone

eurokev · 04-11-2017 08:38AM

inforfun wrote:

Maybe this will make you feel less alone

Ouch! We can mourn together

Danick · 04-11-2017 10:46AM

Dio On The Doubles wrote: »

Taken Roy O' Donovan anytime @2.20 in Newcastle Jets v Wellington Phoenix game in Aussie A League tomorrow morning on bet365.. Opened @1.97 on 888 on Monday, they are usually best price on this market. He's odds on with any other bookie presently.

Also smaller on on Roy O Donovan first goal scorer @5.50 on bet365

Its usually a goal happy encounter between these two. Newcastle have previously struggled for goals but Roy has brought them back.

http://ie.soccerway.com/matches/2017/11/04/australia/a-league/newcastle-jets-fc/wellington-phoenix/2478909/head2head/

He moved from Central Coast Mariners this summer and scored a first half hat trick against them on first day of the season (sound man or what!) . He has scored every weekend since (including first goal scorer two times) bar last weekend when he hit a blank for first time (season is five weeks in now)

I fancy him to get back to scoring ways this Saturday. He'll start if fit.

2 goals before half time - looks like he is worth keeping an eye on - thanks for that - I had him ags

inforfun · 04-11-2017 11:29AM

Dio On The Doubles wrote: »

Taken Roy O' Donovan anytime @2.20 in Newcastle Jets v Wellington Phoenix game in Aussie A League tomorrow morning on bet365.. Opened @1.97 on 888 on Monday, they are usually best price on this market. He's odds on with any other bookie presently.

Also smaller on on Roy O Donovan first goal scorer @5.50 on bet365

Its usually a goal happy encounter between these two. Newcastle have previously struggled for goals but Roy has brought them back.

http://ie.soccerway.com/matches/2017/11/04/australia/a-league/newcastle-jets-fc/wellington-phoenix/2478909/head2head/

He moved from Central Coast Mariners this summer and scored a first half hat trick against them on first day of the season (sound man or what!) . He has scored every weekend since (including first goal scorer two times) bar last weekend when he hit a blank for first time (season is five weeks in now)

I fancy him to get back to scoring ways this Saturday. He'll start if fit.

Thanks!

Danick · 04-11-2017 11:57AM

I have taken Vidal for a yellow on Pp at 2/1

Is there any point in taking McLean for a card in Huddersfield v West Brom game since he prob won't start? He came onfor 10 mins last week and looked like he should have got one

adr1984 · 04-11-2017 04:18PM

Atletico Madrid handicap -1
Barcelona win
Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich over 1.5 1st half goals
Valencia v leganes half time result Valencia

16.13

My fun for the day.. Hope I didn't jinx it

Danick · 04-11-2017 06:24PM

Danick wrote: »

I have taken Vidal for a yellow on Pp at 2/1

Is there any point in taking McLean for a card in Huddersfield v West Brom game since he prob won't start? He came onfor 10 mins last week and looked like he should have got one

Vidal came on too close to the end so not enough time for a card

Took McClean for the craic - it was late but it came in

inforfun · 05-11-2017 08:11AM

Reasoning

Feyenoord corners. Last 2 visits there Feyenoord had 9 and 10 corners. And the only times they didnt get to 7 this season away from home was during easy wins at AZ, Heracles (still 6) and Excelsior. And i dont expect an easy win today as it is never easy there for the top 3in Holland. Even with most of them match with 10 away to PSV Feyenoord had 7 corners

Vitesse - PEC cards: Makkelie and the last 3x this fixture was played, 2x it came in. Als 4th vs 5th and Vitesse has to show their worth after last thursday

Lozano PSV : 9 goals in 8 matches.

Ajax: Although over the last few years Utrecht used to be a tough one for Ajax, Utrecht missing too many strikers to be a threat and this should turn out to be an easy enough win.

Also Berghuis AGS for Feyenoord @ 2.63
Feyenoord top scorer with 7, 3 of those on plastic (Heracles and Roda)

mailburner · 05-11-2017 12:29PM

inter -1 at around 6/4 looks alright to me
was torn between this and number of team goals

The Daily bets, Banter & Accumulators thread IV

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