Brexit discussion thread II

Peregrinus · 31-10-2017 08:03AM

Panrich wrote: »

That is reasonable and sensible but it looks and feels ‘a la carte’ regarding ECJ jurisdiction. That might be a wedge that the EU side will use to expand to other areas that might not be too palatable to the UK extremists.

Yup. The question is whether the extremists will command enough support to get the UK government to prefer aviation chaos over ECJ compromise. I think if there were to be such chaos the political price to be paid at the ballot box would be huge, and the government would realise this.

The UK government can continue to participate in the Aviation Space much as they do now, but the price will certainly include accepting EU regulation of, and jurisdiction over the Aviation Space.

Or, they can negotiate third country rights in much the way that Israel and the US (and many other countries) do. That involves a huge contraction of the UK's aviation industry, but it avoids cancellation of flights and tickets - provided it's put in place before people are booking flights or buying tickets for dates after March 2019.

This is an example, in short, of the kind of detail that, in a no-deal scenario, has to be dealt with long before March 2019.

Gerry T · 31-10-2017 08:33AM

solodeogloria wrote:

I think this is probably another issue that isn't worth getting the goosebumps over. Again this is another issue that is in the interests of both parties to resolve. Israel has a flight arrangement to land in the EU without accepting ECJ oversight. There's no reason why this couldn't be agreed for Britain.

I don't think there's a problem with UK flights landing in the EU provided the flight started outside the EU. My understanding is a UK operator can't fly within the EU, from 1 EU airport to another EU airport.
There's plenty of EU carriers to meet demand.

Gerry T · 31-10-2017 08:36AM

solodeogloria wrote:

It is Halloween, but again I don't see this stuff as being much more than project fear round two. Provided all parties are reasonable this can be hammered out. If one party decides to be unreasonable it is a decision that will harm both parties so it isn't really worth exploring.

One party has decided to hurt the other....it's called brexit. The UK can't decide to leave and the next day get all the benefits of being a member. That's not the EU being unreasonable.
Why is it that all countries around the world haven't got free trade agreements? So why should the UK expect this from the EU

First Up · 31-10-2017 08:50AM

murphaph wrote:

Only once their host country updates its own laws to allow an exchange may the UK licence holder get a licence again. This will (going by current examples) likely be limited to cars only.

All countries already have processes for such exchanges and these will be available to UK licence holders in the EU.

The only issue is if or when they will have to use them and I fully expect that to be clarified in good time.

It is not a "UK crashes out" issue. There are plenty of those already.

Peregrinus · 31-10-2017 09:13AM

First Up wrote: »

All countries already have processes for such exchanges and these will be available to UK licence holders in the EU.

The only issue is if or when they will have to use them and I fully expect that to be clarified in good time.

It is not a "UK crashes out" issue. There are plenty of those already.

Depending on the details of the arrangements in each country, the processes may have to be updated or amended before the holders of UK licences can use them. For example, there may be a legislated or regulated list of countries whose licences can be exchanged and the UK may not be on that list; the list will have to be updated before UK licences can be exchanged.

That may not be a big thing but it is at least a thing. And there will be thousands of similar things which, individually, may be no-brainers but, collectively, add up to a huge amount of work to be processed. Which is why, if you only start a month before Brexit day, you're not going to get it done.

murphaph · 31-10-2017 09:32AM

Yeah it's one thing of very many. Many of these things presumably have higher priority than this thing but this thing would have the highest priority for a UK licence holder living in the EU and needing to drive!

On air travel... don't be so sure that the EU side is just as desperate for the status quo to continue. I read reports that major EU legacy airlines and airports that have little to no interest in the UK internal market would-be more than happy for the UK to lose access to the EU.

Look at it from KLM's perspective...lots of EU citizens fly to the rest of the world on long haul flights from Heathrow. Wouldn't it be nicer if Heathrow wasn't an option and they had to choose Schiphol or CDG instead?

Quite apart from the various freedoms...the UK itself has no safety board accepted by the rest of the world. Their maintenance regimes are certified by an EU body. They'll need to set one up pretty sharpish.

First Up · 31-10-2017 09:40AM

Peregrinus wrote:

That may not be a big thing but it is at least a thing. And there will be thousands of similar things which, individually, may be no-brainers but, collectively, add up to a huge amount of work to be processed. Which is why, if you only start a month before Brexit day, you're not going to get it done.

True, but linking what is essentially a piece of administrative homework to the terms of the UK's exit from the EU is over-stating it.

Peregrinus · 31-10-2017 09:50AM

First Up wrote: »

True, but linking what is essentially a piece of administrative homework to the terms of the UK's exit from the EU is over-stating it.

Not at all; the need for the "administrative homework" (and note that in many cases it will be legislative homework) arises because, and only because, of Brexit, and (if disruption is to be avoided) it all needs to be in place by Brexit day. It's totally linked with Brexit.

And note that most of the work needs to be done by countries other than the UK. In the drivers licence case, for example, the UK needs to update its licence recognition/exchange arrangements so that the licences of each of the EU-27 states are recognised/exchangeable in the UK. But each of the EU-27 needs to update its arrangements so that UK licenses are recognised/exchangeable.

So, everybody has to do it, but the political odium if it's not done will largely fall on the UK. Slovakian (say) drivers resident in the UK will blame Brexit if their licences can no longer be used in the UK, but also can't be exchanged. But UK drivers resident in Slovakia will also blame Brexit for their plight. Because, in fact, it is Brexit that is breaking all these eggs, but not producing much of an omelette in exchange.

ambro25 · 31-10-2017 10:06AM

Seema Malhotra (Lab) asked again, but DExEU has again refused to release details of sectoral studies.

Adverting to earlier promises of court action in case of refusal, I'd hope for the claim to be ready-sealed, and it'd be nice for HMG to get served today.

Accessorily, and somewhat topically, I sealed my fate last night, by accepting my new (EU27) employers' revised offer. The dice is cast, we're getting off this divided island for good, by end Q4 2017 or very early Q1 2018. "Sigh of relief" does not quite cover it (there's a goodly amount of bitterness and pity, but much less of those than optimism).

Nody · 31-10-2017 10:06AM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

I think this is probably another issue that isn't worth getting the goosebumps over. Again this is another issue that is in the interests of both parties to resolve. Israel has a flight arrangement to land in the EU without accepting ECJ oversight. There's no reason why this couldn't be agreed for Britain.

The problem is not landing in EU; the problem is open skies gives all EU airlines the possibility to fly between any EU cities where as any non EU airline can only land in one city before they need to leave for a non EU airport. The first half is what gives such flexibility for airlines to move planes around as needed and has enabled the likes of Ryanair or Easy Jet to exist. Secondary to this is the fact in the same arrangement is the US-EU open skies arrangement which allows EU flights access to multiple locations in the US and limited security checks which UK airlines would lose on day 1 (this may later be renegotiated back but it's not going to be in place on day 1 as UK can't negotiate with a third party while in EU).

murphaph · 31-10-2017 10:11AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Not at all; the need for the "administrative homework" (and note that in many cases it will be legislative homework) arises because, and only because, of Brexit, and (if disruption is to be avoided) it all needs to be in place by Brexit day. It's totally linked with Brexit.

And note that most of the work needs to be done by countries other than the UK. In the drivers licence case, for example, the UK needs to update its licence recognition/exchange arrangements so that the licences of each of the EU-27 states are recognised/exchangeable in the UK. But each of the EU-27 needs to update its arrangements so that UK licenses are recognised/exchangeable.

So, everybody has to do it, but the political odium if it's not done will largely fall on the UK. Slovakian (say) drivers resident in the UK will blame Brexit if their licences can no longer be used in the UK, but also can't be exchanged. But UK drivers resident in Slovakia will also blame Brexit for their plight. Because, in fact, it is Brexit that is breaking all these eggs, but not producing much of an omelette in exchange.

But assuming the purpose of the great repeal bill is to transpose existing EU law into domestic law then the Slovakian in the UK is unaffected in this regard. The problem is for the Brits in the EU really because the EU 27 don't have equivalent repeal bills and have no plans for such currently.

First Up · 31-10-2017 10:13AM

Peregrinus wrote:

And note that most of the work needs to be done by countries other than the UK. In the drivers licence case, for example, the UK needs to update its licence recognition/exchange arrangements so that the licences of each of the EU-27 states are recognised/exchangeable in the UK. But each of the EU-27 needs to update its arrangements so that UK licenses are recognised/exchangeable.

I know, I know but it is still just a matter of administration. All countries have existing procedures to deal with foreign licence holders; nothing new needs to be drafted by anyone.

If it is agreed that current reciprocity continues, then nothing needs to be done. If current reciprocity is not continued, EU/UK licence holders revert to the systems already in place and used for licencees from other countries.

The implication earlier in the thread was that if the UK leaves with "no deal", licences would become invalid and people would be thrown off the road. All that might happen is that people have to do a bit of paperwork that they currently don't have to do as EU citizens.

Peregrinus · 31-10-2017 10:26AM

First Up wrote: »

I know, I know but it is still just a matter of administration. All countries have existing procedures to deal with foreign licence holders; nothing new needs to be drafted by anyone.

If it is agreed that current reciprocity continues, then nothing needs to be done. If current reciprocity is not continued, EU/UK licence holders revert to the systems already in place and used for licencees from other countries.

The implication earlier in the thread was that if the UK leaves with "no deal", licences would become invalid and people would be thrown off the road. All that might happen is that people have to do a bit of paperwork that they currently don't have to do as EU citizens.

No, stuff does need to be done. If it's agreed that reciprocity is to continue, then legal or administrative steps need to be taken in each country to ensure that it does continue. What steps these are will depend on the laws and practices in each of the countries concerned, and this will vary from place to place. In one place, it may simply be a matter of the Ministry of Transport issuing an amended circular which includes the UK in a list of countries whose licences are recognised and/or can be exchanged. In another, the relevant Minister may have to draft and sign regulations and lay them before Parliament, and publish them in the official gazette. In a third, there may be legal requirement to consult relevant stakeholders before amending the arrangements. There may be a statutory consultation period that has to elapse before the changes can be made, or a notice period before they can take effect. In a fourth, legislative or administrative action may be required at provincial/state level (and therefore in every province or state) rather than at national level. And so on.

Individually, none of these things is onerous or impossible. Collectively, they add up to a lot of work, with a lot of people in different countries having to take responsibility for ensuring whatever needs to be done (a) is identified, and (b) is done in a timely fashion before Brexit day. And it's not like they don't have other work to do!

And that's just drivers licences. Multiply that by everything else that needs to be continued, or replaced, to avoid unnecessary disruption.

And that's before we start to think about new stuff that needs to be done. For example if there's a no-deal Brexit, customs and quarantine facilities need to be constructed and equipped, and relevant staff recruited and trained, at EU ports that receive goods from the UK, and at UK ports that receive goods from the EU. That's not going to happen in a month or two.

Legislatively and administratively, no-deal Brexit is not the simplest or easiest option; far from it.

First Up · 31-10-2017 10:36AM

Peregrinus wrote:

Legislatively and administratively, no-deal Brexit is not the simplest or easiest option; far from it.

No deal Brexit is by far the hardest option but there are no circumstances in which drivers in the EU or UK will be thrown off the road with no way of getting back on.

Peregrinus · 31-10-2017 10:43AM

First Up wrote: »

No deal Brexit is by far the hardest option but there are no circumstances in which drivers in the EU or UK will be thrown off the road with no way of getting back on.

There could be, if no-deal Brexit is the outcome of a late collapse of negotiations for a Brexit treaty, and there simply isn't time enough to organise and implement plan B before Brexit day.

To some extent these problems can be managed in the short term by policy actions - e.g. the Slovakian police announce that for the (say) three-month period it will take to organise recognition they won't prosecute people who are driving in Slovakia on unrecognised UK licenses. But that only gets you so far; for example insurers may point out that the police have no power to order them to provide cover (or comprehensive cover) to drivers who, in breach of their policies, are driving without a valid licence. Is the Slovakian state going to indemnify drivers whose insurance arrangements are imperilled in this circumstance? I doubt it. Is the UK? I doubt that too. Or Uk holidaymakers may find that they can't hire cars in Slovakia, or drive hired cars into Slovakia.

But the real issue here is not drivers licences. They are just an instance which serves to illustrate that "continue existing arrangements" is a simple concept to express, but not at all simple to realise. In the event, driver licensing may be fine, but something else may be stuffed up. The scale of the work needed is such that, in a crash-out situation, it's a racing certainty that a lot of things will be stuffed up by a short-notice no-deal Brexit.

First Up · 31-10-2017 10:49AM

Peregrinus wrote:

There could be, if no-deal Brexit is the outcome of a late collapse of negotiations for a Brexit treaty, and there simply isn't time enough to organise and implement plan B before Brexit day.

The Slovak police may not have a big problem but the Spanish and French police have better things to do than go checking on thousands of UK pensioners doing their shopping.

If a time window is needed for people to regularise their situation it will be provided.

Peregrinus · 31-10-2017 10:57AM

First Up wrote: »

The Slovak police may not have a big problem but the Spanish and French police have better things to do than go checking on thousands of UK pensioners doing their shopping.

The police dont' have to be particularly targetting UK pensioners for this to be a problem. If a UK pensioner is involved in a motor accident, for example, and turns out to have been driving unlicensed, they have a problem.

First Up wrote: »

If a time window is needed for people to regularise their situation it will be provided.

You miss the point. Providing a legally robust window for people will probably require legislative/administrative action similar to the action that would be required to continue mutual recognition/interchangeability. If one of these is overlooked or neglected or there simply isn't time to do it, it's not likely that the other is going to get done instead.

We're talking about matters of law here. Simply deciding that something should be the law and actually making it the law are two very different things, even if the decision is a government decision. We don't live in Nazi Germany where the Will Of The Fuhrer automatically had the force of law. If the government wants the law to say something, they actually have to legislate for that, in whatever mode is constitutionally required in the country concerned. It's a pain, but that's the rule of law for you.

murphaph · 31-10-2017 11:08AM

First Up wrote: »

The Slovak police may not have a big problem but the Spanish and French police have better things to do than go checking on thousands of UK pensioners doing their shopping.

If a time window is needed for people to regularise their situation it will be provided.

That still requires possible legislation. The plod can't simply turn a blind eye and all is well (no valid licence means no insurance).

Read my links to the German advice on foreign licences. In short, if you have been living in Germany for more than 6 months and your licence is not from an EU or EEA country you are driving without a licence and if detected will be prosecuted as such (it actually says that).

First Up · 31-10-2017 11:14AM

I don't know if there is any point in saying it again; there are are systems available whereby people can exchange their national licence for a local one. Yes, procedures need to be followed and yes, there are consequences if people don't. But the systems exist and there is no risk of people being prevented from using them.

ambro25 · 31-10-2017 11:39AM

First Up wrote: »

I don't know if there is any point in saying it again; there are are systems available whereby people can exchange their national licence for a local one. Yes, procedures need to be followed and yes, there are consequences if people don't. But the systems exist and there is no risk of people being prevented from using them.

I really don't mean to come across offensive here, but...the systems do exist indeed, and others and I have linked to some of them (France, Germany), so can I just ask: what part of "a third party (non-EU, non-EEA) UK is not part of these systems and would therefore need onboarding into such systems first, for people to be able to use them" can you seemingly not understand?

No-one is saying that the EU27 will somehow bar (Brexited) UK nationals from accessing such systems. But for the system to be accessible to (Brexited) UK nationals, the UK has to be included in the system first. Whether through the EU-UK deal (if there is one), or through bilateral agreement between the UK and each of the EU27 (if there isn't a deal). Otherwise, the computer-system will simply say 'does not compute'.

And the real, personal, measurable and fundamental risk is in the case of a no-deal scenario, the period between the no-deal crash-out date (say, end March 2019 at the latest) and the entry into force of such bilateral agreements: during that transition period, UK licenses would likely be deemed invalid for EU27 residents (mostly Brits) who rely on them for living, commuting, <etc> there. It would certainly be the case for Brits in Germany, avderting to murphaph's posts.

oscarBravo · 31-10-2017 11:41AM

First Up wrote: »

I don't know if there is any point in saying it again; there are are systems available whereby people can exchange their national licence for a local one. Yes, procedures need to be followed and yes, there are consequences if people don't. But the systems exist and there is no risk of people being prevented from using them.

I don't know why you keep making your point over and over and over again as if anyone is disagreeing with you.

Yes, the problems created by Brexit are surmountable. No, that doesn't mean that they are not problems.

A surmountable problem can be hand-waved away. Tens of thousands of surmountable problems can't, no matter how much you want us to believe they can, and no matter how much Theresa May wants us to believe they can.

Professor Moriarty · 31-10-2017 11:50AM

First Up wrote: »

I don't know if there is any point in saying it again; there are are systems available whereby people can exchange their national licence for a local one. Yes, procedures need to be followed and yes, there are consequences if people don't. But the systems exist and there is no risk of people being prevented from using them.

You make a fair point. However, it would be dependent on the goodwill of all parties concerned which may be a serious sticking point for May and her merry band at this stage. If it is an acrimonious separation (most are!), then driving licences will be just another speed bump to be put in Britain's way.

First Up · 31-10-2017 12:06PM

oscarBravo wrote:

I don't know why you keep making your point over and over and over again as if anyone is disagreeing with you.

Because some people don't seem to understand the difference between world-wide systems and internal EU arrangements. The UK will simply move from the latter back to the former.

There were assertions earlier that arrangements for UK driving licences could not be put in place or into action until "everything is agreed". This is not the case.

oscarBravo · 31-10-2017 12:10PM

First Up wrote: »

Because some people don't seem to understand the difference between world-wide systems and internal EU arrangements. The UK will simply move from the latter back to the former.

Which is a reasonable point as far as it goes, but not when you blithely ignore the fact that "simply moving" requires that 27 sovereign countries will have to make administrative and/or legislative changes in order to make it happen.

I'm starting to wonder if your laser focus on driving licences - which, albeit not as simple an issue as you'd like to make out, will be one of the easier problems to solve - is simply a way of avoiding talking about Open Skies, or customs checks at Calais, or the Irish border, or any of the problems that won't involve "simply moving".

ancapailldorcha · 31-10-2017 12:16PM

Grim news from the Bank of England:

BBC wrote:

The Bank of England believes that up to 75,000 jobs could be lost in financial services following Britain's departure from the European Union.

The BBC understands senior figures at the Bank are using the number as a "reasonable scenario", particularly if there is no specific UK-EU financial services deal.

The number could change depending on the UK's post-Brexit trading deal.
But the bank still expects substantial job losses.

I am told the Bank believes that many jobs will move to the continent.

The Bank of England has asked banks and other financial institutions, such as hedge funds, to provide it with contingency plans in the event of Britain trading with the EU under World Trade Organization rules - what some have described as a "hard Brexit".

That would mean banks based in the UK losing special passporting rights to operate across the EU.

Loss of EU passporting rights certainly won't help.

Peregrinus · 31-10-2017 12:20PM

First Up wrote: »

Because some people don't seem to understand the difference between world-wide systems and internal EU arrangements. The UK will simply move from the latter back to the former.

No, the UK won't "simply move"; the UK will have to be moved. This doesn't happen by magic.

First Up wrote: »

There were assertions earlier that arrangements for UK driving licences could not be put in place or into action until "everything is agreed". This is not the case.

No, it's not. But what is the case is that UK driving licences won't be in place until the appropriate officials take the appropriate steps are taken in each of the EU-27 to put them in place; it doesn't happen by magic, and it takes a definite amount of time. Who those officials will be, what those steps will be and how much time it will take, will vary from place to place.

In Ireland, for example, you can exchange a foreign licence if its from an EU/EEA country, or if its from a "recognised state". There are 15 recognised states; the UK is not one of them. Appropriate steps will have to be taken to declare the UK to be a recognised state; this involves the making of a ministerial order, and there's a process for making and publishing ministerial orders that will have to be set in train and executed. Until this happens, UK licences will not be exchangeable in Ireland.

And something similar will be true of each of the other EU-27 member states. And of course some or all of those states may not be willing to do this until they are satisfied that the UK will do the same on a reciprocal basis.

So, no, it won't happen automatically. It will only happen if the relevant people decide that it will happen, and follow through on that decision, and do so in sufficient time before Brexit day. Which might not happen in every case, given that in the chaos of a no-deal Brexit, this won't be anybody's biggest or most pressing problem.

First Up · 31-10-2017 12:26PM

oscarBravo wrote:

Which is a reasonable point as far as it goes, but not when you blithely ignore the fact that "simply moving" requires that 27 sovereign countries will have to make administrative and/or legislative changes in order to make it happen.

No they don't. All countries already have systems in place for dealing with non-EU licences.

oscarBravo wrote:

I'm starting to wonder if your laser focus on driving licences - which, albeit not as simple an issue as you'd like to make out, will be one of the easier problems to solve - is simply a way of avoiding talking about Open Skies, or customs checks at Calais, or the Irish border, or any of the problems that won't involve "simply moving".

The complete opposite. I am one of the strongest critics of the idiocy that is Brexit. You will find many posts from me about the disaster that's going to hit British industry as supply chains are disrupted and how the (almost inevitable) imposition of border controls wil hurt Irish exports.

I am irritated that this driving licence stuff is distracting people from far these more important issues.

First Up · 31-10-2017 12:35PM

Peregrinus wrote:

No, the UK won't "simply move"; the UK will have to be moved. This doesn't happen by magic.

No magic needed, just a bit of paperwork.

Peregrinus wrote:

In Ireland, for example, you can exchange a foreign licence if its from an EU/EEA country, or if its from a "recognised state". There are 15 recognised states; the UK is not one of them. Appropriate steps will have to be taken to declare the UK to be a recognised state; this involves the making of a ministerial order, and there's a process for making and publishing ministerial orders that will have to be set in train and executed. Until this happens, UK licences will not be exchangeable in Ireland.

Which can be done without any reference or dependence on the UK's exit "deal"

Peregrinus · 31-10-2017 12:44PM

First Up wrote: »

No they don't. All countries already have systems in place for dealing with non-EU licences.

They do. But, mostly, those systems don't apply to the whole world (ex.EU); they apply only to selected countries. And the UK is not one of those countries. Nor will it become one by magic.

First Up wrote: »

I am irritated that this driving licence stuff is distracting people from far these more important issues.

The driving licence stuff is just a specific illustration of a general problem. Multiply the issues that the driving licence stuff throws up by ten, by a hundred, by several hundred. Now add the number you first thought of. You're not even close yet to the amount of legislative and administrative work that needs to be done to address the consequences of no-deal Brexit.

I'm not saying that the driving licence issues won't be addressed. But, actually, there will be other much, much bigger issues to be addressed that will take priority over sorting out the exchangeability of driving licences. Depending on the time available and the resources and priorities of each of the EU-27, some issues won't be addressed by Brexit day, and it's not impossible that driving licences might be one of them, in some countries at any rate.

Peregrinus · 31-10-2017 12:46PM

First Up wrote: »

No magic needed, just a bit of paperwork.

Which can be done without any reference or dependence on the UK's exit "deal"

Yes, just a bit of paperwork, and it can be done without an exit deal. The point is that it won't be apparent that it needs to be done until it's known that there will be no Brexit deal and, when that happens, an awful lot of stuff will need to be done; this will be a drop in the ocean, and by no means the most important drop, nor the one that will be first attended to.

Which is the point I've been making; if there's to be a no-deal Brexit, everybody needs to know that sooner rather than later, so as to maximise the chances that everything that needs to be done will be identified, and done.

Brexit discussion thread II

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