The Daily bets, Banter & Accumulators thread IV

PopePalpatine · 25-10-2017 02:42PM

inforfun wrote: »

Dutch cup, at home against some 5th tier amateur team.
No matter who to put on the pitch, anything less than 5 goals is a failure.

You should have waited, Bet365 are offering 4/5 for that now.

mailburner · 25-10-2017 02:46PM

I was thinking after seeing infors post that the 5/4 on fey -4 wasn't half bad

haven't checked the price since (edit, shortened...still 21/20)
the -3 which was 4/6 at the time was probably worth lumping on

inforfun · 25-10-2017 02:58PM

I have no idea what team will play tonight to be honest so i ll wait with putting even more on.
Ok, so this lot dumped the defending cup winner, Vitesse, out of the cup this year but playing on some plastic pitch in Amsterdam is a bit different than playing on the holy grass of the magical De Kuip.

PopePalpatine wrote: »

You should have waited, Bet365 are offering 4/5 for that now.

They lost 4-0 away to the leaders in their own league where they are in 9th position.

I honestly thought the odds for 5 or more would go down and that is why i went early.

Most of the times it pays off going in early, sometimes it doesnt. My Feyenoord - Ajax card bet i took @2.18 and was only 1.85 at kick off.

inforfun · 25-10-2017 03:33PM

Just to add.... Feyenoord does have an injury crisis but that is a defensive one.

Took a small bet on over 8,5 match goals @ 11
Over 9,5 looks appealing to @ 19 but will see how things develop and who start for that one.

Backstreet Moyes · 25-10-2017 03:35PM

Copper_pipe wrote: »

Keep me posted on how you get on with that. 538 are models id pay attention to for NBA and NFL

Okay so have got the following data for all Premier League games for past 4 years.

I have data on the following columns.

Home Team
Away Team
Result
Home Goals
Away Goals
Home Corners
Away Corners
Referee
Home Yellows
Away Yellows
Home Reds
Away Reds

I cannot log on to SQL Server for some annoying reason. I have put the data into Qlikview but I am not a developer so not as quick as I would like.

I have attached a sheet with information regarding the Crystal Palace v West Ham game for this weekend.

Has anyone any ideas on how to get valuable information from what I provided, or any calculations to help quickly turn the data into Statistics.

Would you suggest any more info added e.g. I did not give home and away for both teams.

I have cards split by home and away to help see if a referee has a pattern of being more lenient on home teams.

The markets I am planning to look at are.

Over/Under goals.
Cards over/Under
Corners over/under
Match bets on corners and cards

Now with all this information the next step is ideas on how to use it.

Have to head out for a few hours, so if anyone has any ideas it would be appreciated.

I will be back on later to come up with ideas myself.

Autochange · 25-10-2017 06:01PM

Autochange wrote: »

Oostende v Charleroi at 745 in the Belgian juliper league

Charleroi at 11/5 seem overpriced. 2nd in the league with the second best away form Vs Oostende who are bottom of the table with 5 points from 11 games. Zero of those points have come at home either.

I'll be on Charleroi at 7/10 double chance and win at 11/5

0ostende cruise to an easy 3 to nil win!
No joy. Not even close

mailburner · 25-10-2017 06:37PM

mailburner wrote: »

went a bit mad on the lazio cagliari game for goals, good fixture for goals but priced accordingly

big bet for me on lazio over 2.5 goals at 4/5 888
lazio over 1.5 1st half goals 9/5 bfsp
small stakes on
lazio over 2.5 1st half goals 7/1 bfsp

putting my faith in lazio again
going for a biggish bet for me on over 1.5 lazio goal at 1.83 betstars
think once in the past 10 lazio have failed to score more than one which was v napoli

bologna don't concede a whole lot however....

taken lazio -1 first half also for a small stake at 11/2 365

think there could be a few goals in the leipzig bayern games also (only 9 the last time they met:pac:

mailburner · 25-10-2017 07:21PM

vidal just got booked for bayern....where were ya dio?

never entered my head

leipzig well on top here also

Burial. · 25-10-2017 07:34PM

mailburner wrote: »

putting my faith in lazio again
going for a biggish bet for me on over 1.5 lazio goal at 1.83 betstars
think once in the past 10 lazio have failed to score more than one which was v napoli

bologna don't concede a whole lot however....

taken lazio -1 first half also for a small stake at 11/2 365

think there could be a few goals in the leipzig bayern games also (only 9 the last time they met:pac:

Sick call on the -1 FH

mailburner · 25-10-2017 07:38PM

mailburner wrote: »

putting my faith in lazio again
going for a biggish bet for me on over 1.5 lazio goal at 1.83 betstars
think once in the past 10 lazio have failed to score more than one which was v napoli

bologna don't concede a whole lot however....

taken lazio -1 first half also for a small stake at 11/2 365

think there could be a few goals in the leipzig bayern games also (only 9 the last time they met:pac:

easy but could have been in after 20 mins

apart from all that, immobile missed a pen (hit the post), through on keeper twice and hit the post both times also.

Thankfully he was odds on everywhere to score.

Lazio playing well and if they play like they have done so far they have be followed in the goals market.

inforfun · 25-10-2017 08:32PM

inforfun wrote: »

Dutch cup, at home against some 5th tier amateur team.
No matter who to put on the pitch, anything less than 5 goals is a failure.

Failure it is... 34 attempts
4 goals.
Missed penalty.

mailburner · 25-10-2017 08:57PM

was planning on going heavy on lazio over 2.5 away to benevento on sunday but lazio were pants in that second half so for that reason I'm gonna go with over 1.5 first half lazio goals at 41/20 betstars (11/5bfsp...they don't like me)

seanhynes · 25-10-2017 09:02PM

Draw ET Leipzig bayern 8/11 , Lepizig destined to nick this on pens I feel with all the wasted bayern chances

seanhynes · 25-10-2017 09:21PM

seanhynes wrote: »

Draw ET Leipzig bayern 8/11 , Lepizig destined to nick this on pens I feel with all the wasted bayern chances

Draw and I hope there beaten on penalties ,wasters

rekluse · 26-10-2017 09:27PM

Got 3rd in small online tourney last night for £55, transferred to sportsbook and put it all on Watford this weekend @ evens. Looks a good price to me, thought they would be slightly odds on.

Division · 26-10-2017 10:06PM

rekluse wrote: »

Got 3rd in small online tourney last night for £55, transferred to sportsbook and put it all on Watford this weekend @ evens. Looks a good price to me, thought they would be slightly odds on.

They should win but have only won once at home however stoke are woeful this season especially away. I see more value on Watford draw no bet though @ 1.5 and the overs look decent also despite the h2h (1 over in last 4 meetings) and Stoke winning the last 3 meetings.

Stoke have been on a terrible run but they have been nicking a goal in most games and have a fair chance of scoring 1 in this game.

S.M.B. · 26-10-2017 10:18PM

Watford and Leicester looked like the standout bets to me. Tottenham aren't badly priced either.

mailburner · 27-10-2017 08:51AM

mainz frankfurt

not sure why but the overs in this is priced at 6/5 and bts at 10/11

gonna go with over at 6/5 as my main bet (pp) with smaller on
bts 10/11 bwin
over 3.5 3/1 betstars

Loafing Oaf · 27-10-2017 09:21AM

S.M.B. wrote: »

Watford and Leicester looked like the standout bets to me.

Watford round evens seems crazy generous to me, given Stoke have the worst defence in the prem. These sort of odds always make me think the bookies know something I don't...

Burial. · 27-10-2017 09:36AM

I actually fancy Stoke there. They've been playing pretty decently, quite unlucky. Spurs' price keeps drifting which is mad. I took it at 3.3 a few days back and thought it was good value, then lumped on 3.6...and it's still drifting.

gerp99 · 27-10-2017 09:43AM

Burial. wrote: »

I actually fancy Stoke there. They've been playing pretty decently, quite unlucky. Spurs' price keeps drifting which is mad. I took it at 3.3 a few days back and thought it was good value, then lumped on 3.6...and it's still drifting.

Presume it is due to Kane being out injured

Division · 27-10-2017 10:23AM

Arsenal v Swansea

Under 3.5 goals @ 1.8

I'm interested to hear opinions on this one.

Division · 27-10-2017 10:49AM

Burial. wrote: »

I actually fancy Stoke there. They've been playing pretty decently, quite unlucky. Spurs' price keeps drifting which is mad. I took it at 3.3 a few days back and thought it was good value, then lumped on 3.6...and it's still drifting.

I don't know what 'lumping' means to you but if you have bet significently more than your average stake you may want to consider laying some of it off before the odds increase any more.

I have spurs winning 29% of the time which just puts them into the region of a +EV bet @ 3.6 but far from a lumping proposition.

Division · 27-10-2017 11:07AM

Some craic trying to handicap Palace v West Ham. Palace have failed to score in 8 out of 9 games this season and the bookies are giving them a good chance of winning this one. Both are playing way below their level and so you may as well toss a coin to try to predict which one will snap out of the slump first. Zaha is tipping it in favour of Palace.

Any insight into this one?

Loafing Oaf · 27-10-2017 11:19AM

Division wrote: »

Arsenal v Swansea

Under 3.5 goals @ 1.8

I'm interested to hear opinions on this one.

Decent bet, Arsenal haven't been running amok at home (so far), Swansea have only conceded more than 2 once. The aforementioned Watford straight win at slightly longer odds holds more appeal for me though...

Backstreet Moyes · 27-10-2017 01:21PM

Putting these up just to see how they get on basing it on statistics.

QPR average 9 corners at home this season
Wolves average 5 away

Over 10.5 corners 5/6

Sunderland average 5.5
Bristol 5.5

Over 9 corners 1/2

Cardiff 5.8
Milwall 7.3

Over 9 at 8/13

Preston 5.6
Brentford 6.5

Over 9 at 4/7

Wigan 8.4
Blackburn 4.1

Over 9 at 8/15

Walsall 6.7
Southend 5

Over 9 at 1/2

Luton 5.2
Coventry 6.5

Over 9 at 4/7

Fleetwood 2.7
Oxford 3.1

Under 10 at 11/10

inforfun · 27-10-2017 01:50PM

mailburner wrote: »

mainz frankfurt

not sure why but the overs in this is priced at 6/5 and bts at 10/11

gonna go with over at 6/5 as my main bet (pp) with smaller on
bts 10/11 bwin
over 3.5 3/1 betstars

Haller AGS
@ 2.6
And i ll add Lozano @ 2.4 for PSV on sunday to that.

@ 6.24 for the double.

inforfun · 27-10-2017 03:07PM

Twente - Excelsior
Excelsior\btts @ 7,5

Small.

Excelsior won 2x in the last 3 seasons there and has a good away record this season W3D1L0
Twente an ok home record...

inforfun · 27-10-2017 07:52PM

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

mailburner · 27-10-2017 08:26PM

mailburner wrote: »

mainz frankfurt

not sure why but the overs in this is priced at 6/5 and bts at 10/11

gonna go with over at 6/5 as my main bet (pp) with smaller on
bts 10/11 bwin
over 3.5 3/1 betstars

Not great 1-1

The Daily bets, Banter & Accumulators thread IV

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