Brexit discussion thread II

The Rape of Lucretia · 23-10-2017 07:01PM

carrickbally wrote: »

Of course he can go further.

He is supposed to be in the UK and according to Brexit outside the EU remember.

He is indeed in the UK. But only in a sort of holding pen that would be NI. The UK border would be a ring around the island of Great Britain.

Enzokk · 23-10-2017 07:12PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

He is indeed in the UK. But only in a sort of holding pen that would be NI. The UK border would be a ring around the island of Great Britain.

What is the DUP thoughts on this? Remember we have just read that the CTA will continue and there will not be a border on the island of Ireland, yet we know that the UK wants to control immigration and make their own trade deals. So once again how do you square that circle?

Here is the DUP thoughts on a sea border

Sam Russell · 23-10-2017 07:16PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

He is indeed in the UK. But only in a sort of holding pen that would be NI. The UK border would be a ring around the island of Great Britain.

Now that is the core of the problem.

Are the UK Border Force going to demand a Passport from a NI Unionist to enter GB from Belfast? It would be impossible for the DUP to accept this (especially as the hold the balance in the Parliament and some very strange views).

The only concept I can see is a national ID card for the whole of the UK.

The Rape of Lucretia · 23-10-2017 07:17PM

Enzokk wrote: »

What is the DUP thoughts on this? Remember we have just read that the CTA will continue and there will not be a border on the island of Ireland, yet we know that the UK wants to control immigration and make their own trade deals. So once again how do you square that circle?

As Ive said, free unhindered travel in the island of Ireland - which covers the vaste majority of NI visits abroad anyway.
And a border control to get onto the island of Great Britain. With a fast track passport channel for NI and Eire citizens. Maybe even a faster-track style one for unionsits bypassing the standard one, like the ones for Communist party officials in China which are faster than the ones for even Chinese citizens.

Enzokk · 23-10-2017 07:30PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

As Ive said, free unhindered travel in the island of Ireland - which covers the vaste majority of NI visits abroad anyway.
And a border control to get onto the island of Great Britain. With a fast track passport channel for NI and Eire citizens. Maybe even a faster-track style one for unionsits bypassing the standard one, like the ones for Communist party officials in China which are faster than the ones for even Chinese citizens.

Yes, but that isn't the CTA. There is no passport control between Ireland and the UK at present, as with NI and the rest of the UK. You cannot continue an arrangement by changing the said arrangement. That is not continuing it.

I agree with the sentiment of your post, have NI in the EU but we have already seen statements from the DUP that will be against it. If this was any other government this could be achieved, but a minority that relies on the DUP for their votes makes this a non-starter. So the deal to keep Theresa May in power will be the deal that could complicate Brexit even more.

The Rape of Lucretia · 23-10-2017 07:43PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Yes, but that isn't the CTA. There is no passport control between Ireland and the UK at present, as with NI and the rest of the UK. You cannot continue an arrangement by changing the said arrangement. That is not continuing it.

I agree with the sentiment of your post, have NI in the EU but we have already seen statements from the DUP that will be against it. If this was any other government this could be achieved, but a minority that relies on the DUP for their votes makes this a non-starter. So the deal to keep Theresa May in power will be the deal that could complicate Brexit even more.

She wont need their votes when it comes to the crunch though - Labour will support the deal when the internal UK border comes out in the last desperate late nights of negotiation, and her govt will be a spent force after that anyway with an election to happen whether the DUP pull the plug or not.

It will be a creative, imaginative, and frictionless CTA for citizens of NI and Eire.

carrickbally · 23-10-2017 08:45PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

She wont need their votes when it comes to the crunch though - Labour will support the deal when the internal UK border comes out in the last desperate late nights of negotiation, and her govt will be a spent force after that anyway with an election to happen whether the DUP pull the plug or not.

It will be a creative, imaginative, and frictionless CTA for citizens of NI and Eire.

What happens when an Eastern European lands in Dublin airport, heads for Belfast on the train and gets the ferry from Larne?

Nody · 23-10-2017 08:46PM

Normally I'd take this as the final nail for a hard brexit; then I realised it's stated by May so got no value what so ever as a statement of what will happen (as a side note a FTA would take years to complete starting with a 6 month study to see what both parties may be interested in which creates a preliminary report after 6 months minimum, then final report, negotiation on terms etc.).

Theresa May has warned she will reject a transition to cushion Brexit if she has failed to also strike a long-term trade agreement with the EU – raising the chances of a “no deal” exit.

Really Interested · 23-10-2017 08:51PM

carrickbally wrote: »

What happens when an Eastern European lands in Dublin airport, heads for Belfast on the train and gets the ferry from Larne?

Well he is illegally entering the U.K. and is illegal.

It’s somwhat like when a person lawfully enters the U.K. then overstays and takes a ferry to NI comes South and is illegal.

LeinsterDub · 23-10-2017 08:56PM

Really Interested wrote: »

Well he is illegally entering the U.K. and is illegal.

It’s somwhat like when a person lawfully enters the U.K. then overstays and takes a ferry to NI comes South and is illegal.

Except the UK isn't party to a free travel agreement with half a billion people.

The Rape of Lucretia · 23-10-2017 09:02PM

Shelga wrote: »

I lived in England for 5+ years, voted Remain, moved home to Ireland shortly afterwards.

The collective stupidity of the British electorate is something I still think about nearly every day. The whole thing is a huge, sorry mess and it's impossible to think otherwise.

It is understandably too painful for most of the British to clearly see it, even with all the debate and internal arguing, but the magnitude of this democratic fail, from what seemed to have been a modern educated country, is truly staggering.

The Rape of Lucretia · 23-10-2017 09:05PM

Really Interested wrote: »

Well he is illegally entering the U.K. and is illegal.

It’s somwhat like when a person lawfully enters the U.K. then overstays and takes a ferry to NI comes South and is illegal.

No. He is legally in the UK alright. But only in the CTA area that NI is in. He would not get into Great Britain though.

Professor Moriarty · 23-10-2017 09:38PM

Really Interested wrote: »

Well he is illegally entering the U.K. and is illegal.

It’s somwhat like when a person lawfully enters the U.K. then overstays and takes a ferry to NI comes South and is illegal.

They could apply for refugee status.

murphaph · 23-10-2017 09:57PM

The CTA has nothing to do with a customs border. It is trivial in comparison. The EU don't care as Ireland is outside Schengen anyway. Now customs and standards are another matter entirely.

Really Interested · 23-10-2017 10:00PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Except the UK isn't party to a free travel agreement with half a billion people.

No, but many hundreds of millions of people can enter the UK without a visa including countries in Africa and South America.

Sand · 23-10-2017 10:06PM

flatty wrote: »

It does, but for once it'd be no bad thing. Might give an opportunity for a more honest debate and a rowback by the younger generation.
I'd also remind folk that 48% of people voted against this xenophobic madness, despite the lies, downright lies and spin.

I cant see more honest debate or a rowback occurring until its far, far too late. In the aftermath of the Brexit vote, the British political classes (the Tories and Labour) drank the kool aid and completely abdicated all reason. Brexit has taken on a cult like fervour in the UK, with anyone who questions it denounced as an enemy of the people and subject to "two minutes of hate" from the British media. The UKIP party, unable to command no more than 12.6% of the vote and with a leader completely unable to get elected to Parliament (7 times!) suddenly became the driving force in UK politics. Suddenly BoJo became a minister of the crown. A court case had to be taken to re-establish that Parliament had to vote. Absolute craziness!

The British media, even the moderate BBC/Guardian types, seems completely uninformed. There is no chance of a honest debate emerging when the likes of Fox, BoJo, Davis, Gove and May get such an easy life when talking absolute nonsense. That UK politicians feel brave enough to talk up stupidity like a 'no-deal' Brexit in public demonstrates the total failure of British media to fulfil their duty to challenge politicians and inform the voters. While 48% of the UK voted against Brexit, and I sympathise, its incredible and telling that 52% of the UK voted for something as stupid as Brexit. There is a sickness in the UK, and its important for the UK to heal itself. For its own sake.

There is no point in the EU playing for time. Neither Labour nor the Tories are publicly repenting or seeking to cancel Brexit. The only way the UK is going to learn is by giving them the hard Brexit they want. Its tough, but its for their own good. Turn the power off and back on again. Once there is a (long overdue) UK political revolution and malicious jokers like BoJo and Paul Dacre are cast out by the (younger) UK people as the baby boomers die off, then perhaps there can be discussions about the UK rejoining the EU, but under a new attitude 20-30 years from now.

Professor Moriarty · 23-10-2017 10:21PM

Sand wrote: »

I cant see more honest debate or a rowback occurring until its far, far too late. In the aftermath of the Brexit vote, the British political classes (the Tories and Labour) drank the kool aid and completely abdicated all reason. Brexit has taken on a cult like fervour in the UK, with anyone who questions it denounced as an enemy of the people and subject to "two minutes of hate" from the British media. The UKIP party, unable to command no more than 12.6% of the vote and with a leader completely unable to get elected to Parliament (7 times!) suddenly became the driving force in UK politics. Suddenly BoJo became a minister of the crown. A court case had to be taken to re-establish that Parliament had to vote. Absolute craziness!

The British media, even the moderate BBC/Guardian types, seems completely uninformed. There is no chance of a honest debate emerging when the likes of Fox, BoJo, Davis, Gove and May get such an easy life when talking absolute nonsense. That UK politicians feel brave enough to talk up stupidity like a 'no-deal' Brexit in public demonstrates the total failure of British media to fulfil their duty to challenge politicians and inform the voters. While 48% of the UK voted against Brexit, and I sympathise, its incredible and telling that 52% of the UK voted for something as stupid as Brexit. There is a sickness in the UK, and its important for the UK to heal itself. For its own sake.

There is no point in the EU playing for time. Neither Labour nor the Tories are publicly repenting or seeking to cancel Brexit. The only way the UK is going to learn is by giving them the hard Brexit they want. Its tough, but its for their own good. Turn the power off and back on again. Once there is a (long overdue) UK political revolution and malicious jokers like BoJo and Paul Dacre are cast out by the (younger) UK people as the baby boomers die off, then perhaps there can be discussions about the UK rejoining the EU, but under a new attitude 20-30 years from now.

That's all very well but we suffer the hits to Ireland's economy, the GFA and to Irish people living in the UK.

LeinsterDub · 23-10-2017 10:32PM

Really Interested wrote: »

No, but many hundreds of millions of people can enter the UK without a visa including countries in Africa and South America.

Our current visa agreements are more or less in agreement. If the UK decides to abandon this common policy. This will also kill the CTA

carrickbally · 23-10-2017 10:37PM

Sand wrote: »

I cant see more honest debate or a rowback occurring until its far, far too late. In the aftermath of the Brexit vote, the British political classes (the Tories and Labour) drank the kool aid and completely abdicated all reason. Brexit has taken on a cult like fervour in the UK, with anyone who questions it denounced as an enemy of the people and subject to "two minutes of hate" from the British media. The UKIP party, unable to command no more than 12.6% of the vote and with a leader completely unable to get elected to Parliament (7 times!) suddenly became the driving force in UK politics. Suddenly BoJo became a minister of the crown. A court case had to be taken to re-establish that Parliament had to vote. Absolute craziness!

The British media, even the moderate BBC/Guardian types, seems completely uninformed. There is no chance of a honest debate emerging when the likes of Fox, BoJo, Davis, Gove and May get such an easy life when talking absolute nonsense. That UK politicians feel brave enough to talk up stupidity like a 'no-deal' Brexit in public demonstrates the total failure of British media to fulfil their duty to challenge politicians and inform the voters. While 48% of the UK voted against Brexit, and I sympathise, its incredible and telling that 52% of the UK voted for something as stupid as Brexit. There is a sickness in the UK, and its important for the UK to heal itself. For its own sake.

There is no point in the EU playing for time. Neither Labour nor the Tories are publicly repenting or seeking to cancel Brexit. The only way the UK is going to learn is by giving them the hard Brexit they want. Its tough, but its for their own good. Turn the power off and back on again. Once there is a (long overdue) UK political revolution and malicious jokers like BoJo and Paul Dacre are cast out by the (younger) UK people as the baby boomers die off, then perhaps there can be discussions about the UK rejoining the EU, but under a new attitude 20-30 years from now.

I think that is too optimistic.

Tearing up an agreement signed with nearly thirty other European democracies to cooperate in matters of mutual interest is very final and will have dire consequences for both the UK and the EU.

Tearing up the Good Friday Agreement signed with this country will also have extra dire consequences for this country.

English racism is in this generation going to have similar consequences as German racism had in the thirties.

The London media spent decades of racist, anti-EU propaganda getting to this situation.

It is not going to stop now.

I hope I am wrong but I am very pessimistic.

steddyeddy · 23-10-2017 11:00PM

Sand wrote: »

I cant see more honest debate or a rowback occurring until its far, far too late. In the aftermath of the Brexit vote, the British political classes (the Tories and Labour) drank the kool aid and completely abdicated all reason. Brexit has taken on a cult like fervour in the UK, with anyone who questions it denounced as an enemy of the people and subject to "two minutes of hate" from the British media. The UKIP party, unable to command no more than 12.6% of the vote and with a leader completely unable to get elected to Parliament (7 times!) suddenly became the driving force in UK politics. Suddenly BoJo became a minister of the crown. A court case had to be taken to re-establish that Parliament had to vote. Absolute craziness!

The British media, even the moderate BBC/Guardian types, seems completely uninformed. There is no chance of a honest debate emerging when the likes of Fox, BoJo, Davis, Gove and May get such an easy life when talking absolute nonsense. That UK politicians feel brave enough to talk up stupidity like a 'no-deal' Brexit in public demonstrates the total failure of British media to fulfil their duty to challenge politicians and inform the voters. While 48% of the UK voted against Brexit, and I sympathise, its incredible and telling that 52% of the UK voted for something as stupid as Brexit. There is a sickness in the UK, and its important for the UK to heal itself. For its own sake.

There is no point in the EU playing for time. Neither Labour nor the Tories are publicly repenting or seeking to cancel Brexit. The only way the UK is going to learn is by giving them the hard Brexit they want. Its tough, but its for their own good. Turn the power off and back on again. Once there is a (long overdue) UK political revolution and malicious jokers like BoJo and Paul Dacre are cast out by the (younger) UK people as the baby boomers die off, then perhaps there can be discussions about the UK rejoining the EU, but under a new attitude 20-30 years from now.

I agree 100%. The only thing that will convince the UK of the perils of Brexit is Brexit itself.

Best scenario involves a hard Brexit, a substantial economic blow to the UK, a regaining of sense and application to rejoin the EU. They won't keep the pound in rejoining, but they'll hopefully learn their lesson.

Sand · 23-10-2017 11:51PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's all very well but we suffer the hits to Ireland's economy, the GFA and to Irish people living in the UK.

Agreed, but we cant compel the UK to see reason. There is no point giving the UK more time. May is getting weaker, not stronger. She will not be able to face down the Brexit lunatic fringe and the Daily Mail. There is no reason to believe the British political and media classes are going to get braver, smarter or more honest by waiting an extra 6 or 12 or 24 months. Brexit is going to happen, and the British insist it be the hardest possible Brexit.

In the long term, its better for Ireland and the EU as a whole that the UK lance the boil now.

oppenheimer1 · 24-10-2017 12:13AM

Sand wrote: »

Agreed, but we cant compel the UK to see reason. There is no point giving the UK more time. May is getting weaker, not stronger. She will not be able to face down the Brexit lunatic fringe and the Daily Mail. There is no reason to believe the British political and media classes are going to get braver, smarter or more honest by waiting an extra 6 or 12 or 24 months. Brexit is going to happen, and the British insist it be the hardest possible Brexit.

In the long term, its better for Ireland and the EU as a whole that the UK lance the boil now.

Time has not run out just yet. For Brexit to collapse you will need a couple of catastrophic business failures/factory closures directly attributed to Brexit.

The problem is of course that by the time these consequences are being felt, the UK will be hurtling fast towards the cliff with no way of stopping.

Akrasia · 24-10-2017 12:23AM

Given the timeframe, fatalism is more than justified.

The UK will crash out of Europe. There will be consequences that could be far reaching. Hopefully after a few years of turmoil they will align themselves with enlightenment europe, but that is far from guaranteed.

oppenheimer1 · 24-10-2017 12:24AM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Now that is the core of the problem.

Are the UK Border Force going to demand a Passport from a NI Unionist to enter GB from Belfast? It would be impossible for the DUP to accept this (especially as the hold the balance in the Parliament and some very strange views).

The only concept I can see is a national ID card for the whole of the UK.

It's not people that are the problem, it's taxation of goods and services.

People can still be covered by the CTA and illegal immigration to the UK can be enforced (as it is today for non-EU countries) by workplace and accommodation checks.

The real problem is figuring out how to maintain the integrity of the single market and customs union with NI on the outside. Even with the border on the Irish sea, the UK mainland is just 21miles away, short enough to do in a RIB, so smuggling will be rife.

There are no easy answers to this dilemma apart from the UK staying in the customs union and single market. This is not an option for the UK as it would be an total humiliation for the UK govt, pay for play with no say.

demfad · 24-10-2017 09:51AM

Sand wrote: »

There is no point in the EU playing for time. Neither Labour nor the Tories are publicly repenting or seeking to cancel Brexit. The only way the UK is going to learn is by giving them the hard Brexit they want. Its tough, but its for their own good. Turn the power off and back on again. Once there is a (long overdue) UK political revolution and malicious jokers like BoJo and Paul Dacre are cast out by the (younger) UK people as the baby boomers die off, then perhaps there can be discussions about the UK rejoining the EU, but under a new attitude 20-30 years from now.

Democracy dies in the dark, as they say.....

demfad · 24-10-2017 10:14AM

OK. There has being some goings on the Brexit-Russia-UKIP side of things.
Buzzfeed had an article relating to a study about a 13,000 strong twitter botnet active during EU referendum but deleted very shortly after.
They reported that Damien Collins, Commons chair of 'Fake news' inquiry asked twitter about these bots: was there interference? Who deleted? Did twitter delete? etc.

Leave.EU already admitted they ran the Bots

https://twitter.com/andywigmore/status/902941548610035712

Questions Guardians Carole Cadwalladr tweeted as a result, Questions deserving answers:

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/922174663366729736

breatheme · 24-10-2017 10:18AM

Really Interested wrote: »

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Except the UK isn't party to a free travel agreement with half a billion people.

No, but many hundreds of millions of people can enter the UK without a visa including countries in Africa and South America.

Those people can usually also enter Ireland. But imagine this: EU-Citizen X is deported from the UK post-Brexit for whatever reason. All this person has to do is enter through Ireland to get back. So much for taking back control. Also, I want to know, since no one has even brought this up, will EU citizens still be able to enter the UK on just their ID card? This would also be a wildly differing policy.

blanch152 · 24-10-2017 10:22AM

carrickbally wrote: »

What happens when an Eastern European lands in Dublin airport, heads for Belfast on the train and gets the ferry from Larne?

That is the UK's problem.

What happens when an Australian enters the UK without a visa, takes the ferry to Dublin and then to France to go looking for a job? The EU won't like that and we will be told to protect our borders.

24-10-2017 10:22AM

breatheme wrote: »

will EU citizens still be able to enter the UK on just their ID card? This would also be a wildly differing policy.

they never could.

breatheme · 24-10-2017 10:30AM

What do you mean they never could? Of course they can.
EDIT: Proof.

Brexit discussion thread II

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