Brexit discussion thread II

murphthesmurf · 20-10-2017 05:52PM

flatty wrote: »

Rochdale is more than 50% Asian. I have no idea how they voted. I do know that some elderly white people I have met there are afraid to walk in town at night because they fear that being white makes them a target for violence. Whether it does or not, I have no idea, but that's what more than one think (our business is on a busy thoroughfare, and several have spontaneously remarked that they wouldn't dare walk there after dark due to being white)
You can argue against the rights, wrongs and morals. You can strawman til you're blue in the face, but it is just a fact.
Have you ever been there, as a matter of interest?

There are many places like this accross the UK, a lot of the Birmingham area, Leicester, Bradford, and many others.
You cannot judge immigration purely financially as most of the posters seem to be doing. The attitude is that if the country is making a few quid from them then everything is grand. No it's not. Most of you have never lived there in the areas most effected. The area I grew up in has been decimated by immigration, my parents are elderly and still live there. I wish I could have bought them with me. Most of you really have no idea what you are talking about and just follow the trendy views on multiculturalism. I had 36yrs experience living in an area of high immigration with friends and colleagues from every type of background you could think of. There are ghettos where white people don't go.
But I'm just a racist xenophobe.
You are right though in a way, the British took out their anger and desperation on the wrong target with the EU. The Polish and other eastern Europeans are honest hard working people who have been caught up in something that was not there making.

Mezcita · 20-10-2017 05:55PM

murphthesmurf wrote: »

There are many places like this accross the UK, a lot of the Birmingham area, Leicester, Bradford, and many others.
You cannot judge immigration purely financially as most of the posters seem to be doing. The attitude is that if the country is making a few quid from them then everything is grand. No it's not. Most of you have never lived there in the areas most effected. The area I grew up in has been decimated by immigration, my parents are elderly and still live there. I wish I could have bought them with me. Most of you really have no idea what you are talking about and just follow the trendy views on multiculturalism. I had 36yrs experience living in an area of high immigration with friends and colleagues from every type of background you could think of. There are ghettos where white people don't go.
But I'm just a racist xenophobe.
You are right though in a way, the British took out their anger and desperation on the wrong target with the EU. The Polish and other eastern Europeans are honest hard working people who have been caught up in something that was not there making.

What do you mean by "decimated by immigration"? In what way?

cml387 · 20-10-2017 06:23PM

murphthesmurf wrote: »

You are right though in a way, the British took out their anger and desperation on the wrong target with the EU. The Polish and other eastern Europeans are honest hard working people who have been caught up in something that was not there making.

Well exactly. The vote for Brexit was on the basis of the wrong target.

Something everyone has been saying here ever since last June 12 months.

listermint · 20-10-2017 07:19PM

murphthesmurf wrote: »

There are many places like this accross the UK, a lot of the Birmingham area, Leicester, Bradford, and many others.
You cannot judge immigration purely financially as most of the posters seem to be doing. The attitude is that if the country is making a few quid from them then everything is grand. No it's not. Most of you have never lived there in the areas most effected. The area I grew up in has been decimated by immigration, my parents are elderly and still live there. I wish I could have bought them with me. Most of you really have no idea what you are talking about and just follow the trendy views on multiculturalism. I had 36yrs experience living in an area of high immigration with friends and colleagues from every type of background you could think of. There are ghettos where white people don't go.
But I'm just a racist xenophobe.
You are right though in a way, the British took out their anger and desperation on the wrong target with the EU. The Polish and other eastern Europeans are honest hard working people who have been caught up in something that was not there making.

But you have been informed that non EU migration is the concern. Yet voted out of the EU.

Perplexed.

First Up · 20-10-2017 08:18PM

It seems that geography is not a strong point of your average Brexiteer.

murphaph · 20-10-2017 08:47PM

http://www.portstrategy.com/news101/world/europe/dublin-prepares-for-brexit

Short article about Dublin port's plans to build customs infrastructure. How very depressing.

The Rape of Lucretia · 20-10-2017 09:03PM

May agrees with EU no physical border in Ireland.
So in the sea we presume it is. The only sensible option.
That is if she can now survive in the job to see it through. Looking increasingly unlikely I feel.

First Up · 20-10-2017 09:07PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote:

May agrees with EU no physical border in Ireland. So in the sea we presume it is. The only sensible option. That is if she can now survive in the job to see it through. Looking increasingly unlikely I feel.

As long as that sea border is between Britain and NI, and not between ROI and the EU.

cml387 · 20-10-2017 09:14PM

The impression gained from this last EU summit is that the 27 are doing their best for Teresa May because if they don't be seen at least to cut he some slack, then she could be overthrown and then the dogs of war would be unleashed.

That presupposes the accession of a new PM would be a foregone conclusion, i.e. a fervent Brexiteer.

But is that necessarily the case?

Britain is facing an existential crisis, akin to Corn Law repeal or the Ulster question. The last leadership election was a fiasco. Does the Tory party hate itself more than a Labour government?

I think they'd rather go down than compromise between themselves.

Rain Ascending · 20-10-2017 09:41PM

murphaph wrote: »

http://www.portstrategy.com/news101/world/europe/dublin-prepares-for-brexit

Short article about Dublin port's plans to build customs infrastructure. How very depressing.

Actually, it's all pretty inevitable. With the UK planning to leave the Single Market and the customs union, it's clear that these kind of preparations need to be kick-started now. Nothing short of a change of government in the UK will change that reality and even then, it's not clear how committed Labour are to rejoining either.

What did encourage me from the article was the following quote:

Meanwhile, he [O'Reilly, chief executive of Dublin Port Company] noted, shipping lines are investing in new tonnage to link Dublin directly to Europe. “And we have had a lot of inquiries from Europe.”

This we'll desperately need in the event of a hard, "no deal" exit. The indicators are that the landbridge to the continent will likely be a no-go route for perhaps months. For a good analysis of why this might be so, see this blog entry from Richard North. The bottom line there is that a "no deal" exit will put the UK/EU trade in a worse position than your typical country with no free trade agreement with the EU. What will be missing are customs cooperation agreements and mutual recognition of conformity testing, resulting in much higher percentages of inspections than the 5% quoted by Dublin Port. The situation at the Channel ports will quickly become impossible, not because of the lack of facilities on the English side, but because of a lack of facilities on the French, Belgian, and Dutch side.

Of course, we could gamble that the UK government will cave in before we reach that point ... and while a rational assessment would suggest that they'll have to, I wouldn't like to bet Ireland's prosperity on it. Hence the importance of increasing the available direct links to France.

Jim2007 · 20-10-2017 10:31PM

While being able to ship to the U.K. is critical for food industry, getting paid may be just as big an issue - a beef carcass attracts on average tariffs of about 65% - 70%, add the FX decline and you may well find people can't afford to eat Irish meat as often and so on. Investing in some kind of offal products factory in the U.K. might be a smart move.

flatty · 20-10-2017 10:35PM

Blowfish wrote: »

So why exactly did they vote to leave then? Leaving pretty much guarantees more non EU immigration than currently exists.

You know that, and I know that. That wasn't my point, however.

LeinsterDub · 20-10-2017 10:39PM

murphthesmurf wrote: »

There are many places like this accross the UK, a lot of the Birmingham area, Leicester, Bradford, and many others.
You cannot judge immigration purely financially as most of the posters seem to be doing. The attitude is that if the country is making a few quid from them then everything is grand. No it's not. Most of you have never lived there in the areas most effected. The area I grew up in has been decimated by immigration, my parents are elderly and still live there. I wish I could have bought them with me. Most of you really have no idea what you are talking about and just follow the trendy views on multiculturalism. I had 36yrs experience living in an area of high immigration with friends and colleagues from every type of background you could think of. There are ghettos where white people don't go.
But I'm just a racist xenophobe.
You are right though in a way, the British took out their anger and desperation on the wrong target with the EU. The Polish and other eastern Europeans are honest hard working people who have been caught up in something that was not there making.

Certain areas of Dublin are no go areas, certain areas of Glasgow are no go areas, as are certain areas of Belfast . I don't get your point?

Jim2007 · 20-10-2017 10:43PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

May agrees with EU no physical border in Ireland.
So in the sea we presume it is. The only sensible option.
That is if she can now survive in the job to see it through. Looking increasingly unlikely I feel.

That is all very, but the logical consequence of the is that EU warships, certainly Irish, probably Dutch and Danish will have to conducting boardings of the coast of NI.

LeinsterDub · 20-10-2017 11:59PM

Jim2007 wrote: »

That is all very, but the logical consequence of the is that EU warships, certainly Irish, probably Dutch and Danish will have to conducting boardings of the coast of NI.

No it's not customs only care about what is landed unless you expect some sort of massive piracy on the sea.

Also Ireland doesn't have warships, being a defence force and all that

21-10-2017 12:12AM

Poll in the UK Independent.

76% believe the British government's negotiations aren't going well.
46% think a deal unlikely. 37% the opposite.
45% believe a no deal scenario is bad for UK, 11% good, 22% think it makes no difference.
52% believe a deal must be reached regardless, while 28% say a no deal scenario should be pursued.
If a deal is reached, 48% believe the EU will emerge the better, while only 21% think the UK will.

One thing that seems clear from this poll is that a no deal option is not popular amongst the British public.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-uk-public-go-badly-leave-eu-remainer-brexiteer-no-deal-theresa-may-trade-deal-economy-a8011771.html

Sand · 21-10-2017 12:22AM

Blowfish wrote: »

So why exactly did they vote to leave then? Leaving pretty much guarantees more non EU immigration than currently exists.

Honestly I would presume its a mix of two factors:

1 - European voters are relentlessly against mass immigration (immigration to the level that it changes European culture, as opposed to migrants becoming European), but is not offered any vote on mass immigration policy over the past 70 years. Brexit therefore became a proxy vote.

2 - Brexiteers successfully linked the EU to uncontrolled mass immigration. The breakdown of EU borders in 2015 after Merkel's invitation to anyone and everyone didn't help combat this connection.

People can argue until they are blue in the face about EU free movement not being non-EU migration. It doesn't matter. The link between the EU and uncontrolled mass migration was made, and never broken. The reality is support of the EU and support of mass migration was (correctly or incorrectly) seen as one and the same - both by supporters of Brexit and Remain.

Sand · 21-10-2017 12:30AM

ambro25 wrote: »

I'm ever so mindful of Mods comments on the thread, but it takes some level of abnegation not to attack the player, when solo is being so consistently disingenuous.

Good morning!

That's very harsh. I admire Solo for his persistent engagement on the topic where he adds so much. He is clearly extremely genuine and well informed.

Completely off topic, but have you ever googled Ken M?

Much thanks,
sand

Nody · 21-10-2017 01:25AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Poll in the UK Independent.

76% believe the British government's negotiations aren't going well.
46% think a deal unlikely. 37% the opposite.
45% believe a no deal scenario is bad for UK, 11% good, 22% think it makes no difference.
52% believe a deal must be reached regardless, while 28% say a no deal scenario should be pursued.
If a deal is reached, 48% believe the EU will emerge the better, while only 21% think the UK will.

One thing that seems clear from this poll is that a no deal option is not popular amongst the British public.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-uk-public-go-badly-leave-eu-remainer-brexiteer-no-deal-theresa-may-trade-deal-economy-a8011771.html

And people are still grossly uninformed about what Brexit actually means if only 45% think a no deal is bad for UK.

And since Solo is such a huge fan of democracy here's what the Brexiteers are planning to ensure their vision is delivered:

Hardline Brexiteers claim they want a free trade agreement with the EU,but privately some prefer the “no deal” scenario they now talk up as inevitable, even though a World Trade Organisation tariff regime would harm the economy. They are putting growing pressure on May to walk out of the negotiations and put the Government’s energies into preparing for “no deal” and a “clean break” in March 2019. One reason for their campaign is that they fear an attempt by Parliament to block “no deal” if the talks collapse.

So since they are afraid of losing a vote in parliament they want to yet again circumvent the democratically voted MPs and simply rule by making a bad deal behind everyone's back to get their way. UK democracy in action.

Jim2007 · 21-10-2017 01:29AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

No it's not customs only care about what is landed unless you expect some sort of massive piracy on the sea.

Yes, boardings will have to be conducted it the consequences of a border.

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Also Ireland doesn't have warships, being a defence force and all that

Warships is just a common term used to distinguish them from other vessels. Nothing to do with size or military purposes.

murphaph · 21-10-2017 07:05AM

I don't see any need for boardings if there was a customs border in the Irish sea. It still throws NI under the bus as most of their output heads to GB but it is better for the RoI than a land border and we have to put ourselves first in this like the UK has.

steddyeddy · 21-10-2017 10:31AM

murphaph wrote: »

I don't see any need for boardings if there was a customs border in the Irish sea. It still throws NI under the bus as most of their output heads to GB but it is better for the RoI than a land border and we have to put ourselves first in this like the UK has.

54% of the North's exports go to the EU. A lot of that is agricultural products and their agri products depend on grants from the EU. A sea border is the only option as it gives them the chance to stay in the single market.

LeinsterDub · 21-10-2017 10:42AM

Jim2007 wrote: »

Yes, boardings will have to be conducted it the consequences of a border.

Why would boardings have to be conducted. You've just made this contention based on nothing.

Jim2007 · 21-10-2017 11:12AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Why would boardings have to be conducted. You've just made this contention based on nothing.

Actual experience back in the day.

The Rape of Lucretia · 21-10-2017 12:04PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Poll in the UK Independent.

76% believe the British government's negotiations aren't going well.
46% think a deal unlikely. 37% the opposite.
45% believe a no deal scenario is bad for UK, 11% good, 22% think it makes no difference.
52% believe a deal must be reached regardless, while 28% say a no deal scenario should be pursued.
If a deal is reached, 48% believe the EU will emerge the better, while only 21% think the UK will.

One thing that seems clear from this poll is that a no deal option is not popular amongst the British public.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-uk-public-go-badly-leave-eu-remainer-brexiteer-no-deal-theresa-may-trade-deal-economy-a8011771.html

Yes. But this is a poll of the people who in a referendum, voted to Brexit. So not exactly the smartest or most well informed folk to give a view on any of those questions put to them.
Brexit really is the UK's lowest moment, and must be a contender for any modern countries most stupidly selfharming mis-use of its democracy. Germany in 1933 perhaps. Its in that range of cockup.

murphaph · 21-10-2017 12:20PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

54% of the North's exports go to the EU. A lot of that is agricultural products and their agri products depend on grants from the EU. A sea border is the only option as it gives them the chance to stay in the single market.

The majority of NI's "exports" go to GB. That's why they don't show up as exports but make no mistake a sea border will crucify their economy every bit as much as a land border with the south. There is no good outcome to this for NI so long as the UK leaves the SM and CU. It's slightly less worse for us if they accept the sea border.

FrancieBrady · 21-10-2017 12:24PM

murphaph wrote: »

The majority of NI's "exports" go to GB. That's why they don't show up as exports but make no mistake a sea border will crucify their economy every bit as much as a land border with the south. There is no good outcome to this for NI so long as the UK leaves the SM and CU. It's slightly less worse for us if they accept the sea border.

It's more than 'slightly less worse', given an MP was talking about British troops on the border only this week.
A land border is a 'dissident's charter' or starter for ten. And if that kicks off, nobody knows where it will end.

steddyeddy · 21-10-2017 12:25PM

murphaph wrote: »

The majority of NI's "exports" go to GB. That's why they don't show up as exports but make no mistake a sea border will crucify their economy every bit as much as a land border with the south. There is no good outcome to this for NI so long as the UK leaves the SM and CU. It's slightly less worse for us if they accept the sea border.

I don't think the border is their biggest problem. It's leaving the single market. Especially when they're a services or agri economy. The only reason I say a sea border is because it keeps them in the single market.

21-10-2017 12:30PM

Blowfish wrote: »

So why exactly did they vote to leave then? Leaving pretty much guarantees more non EU immigration than currently exists.

You are presuming that the people that identify as Asian did not vote.

If 60% of Rochdale voted leave and the majority of people in rochdale identify as Asian then surely a lot of people weren’t voting to keep out non eu migrants.

21-10-2017 12:32PM

Are there any good broad sources on what NI produces (goods and services), where it goes and how it gets there?

I am curious to see if say food exports to GB go via Dublin or if Bombardier wings go straight to Canada.

I imagine some of the information might be caught in the UK employment reviews that haven't been released.

Brexit discussion thread II

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