Brexit discussion thread II

A Little Pony · 14-10-2017 02:16PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

A Little Pony wrote: »

British nationalism is certainly not some sort of minority in the UK as I described it, Brexiteers exist all over the UK.

Unlike the six counties, no country in Britain has in place a guarantee that they will have automatic membership of the EU if they vote to end UK jurisdiction.

Your British nationalism blinded you to the risk Brexit poses to the six counties' constitutional position. You'd better hope the north thrives post-Brexit or you could well be living in a united Ireland down the line.

I just don't get why unionists aren't absolutely furious with the DUP for pushing for Brexit which may well unravel their place within their beloved (if unrequited) union with Britain.

I love England and the history of England, If I could I would seek out English citizenship.

steddyeddy · 14-10-2017 02:24PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

I love England and the history of England, If I could I would seek out English citizenship.

As opposed to British?

First Up · 14-10-2017 02:43PM

A Little Pony wrote:

I love England and the history of England, If I could I would seek out English citizenship.

Maybe you could swop with one of the British folk getting Irish citizenship.

steddyeddy · 14-10-2017 03:26PM

Well at least priorities are in order. Nice 100 million yacht for the queen as the economy dive bombs.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/voices/liam-fox-royal-yacht-brexit-austerity-royal-family-the-queen-expensive-a8000386.html%3Famp

demfad · 14-10-2017 03:48PM

Acording to an attendee at Leo Varadker's address to Derry Chamber of Commerce yesterday evening, NI has been offered a one time deal by the EU, but they must ask for it. Exceptions will be on offer to NI....

steddyeddy · 14-10-2017 03:58PM

demfad wrote: »

Acording to an attendee at Leo Varadker's address to Derry Chamber of Commerce yesterday evening, NI has been offered a one time deal by the EU, but they must ask for it. Exceptions will be on offer to NI....

That's a good thing.

Capt'n Midnight · 14-10-2017 04:00PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Those retailers that use products that is produced in the UK will either have to source elsewhere to compete with the ones that are local or import from the EU or they will have to shut shop if the import duties are too high for UK products. If there was no Aldi or Lidl I would be a little more worried about food prices in Ireland post Brexit, as I would not trust the "Irish" stores to not put up prices when it suits them for no reason.

I forgot to mention the fall in sterling means that UK goods should be cheaper. So overall UK most imports shouldn't be more expensive.

Tariffs may affect some things, though, but even it just means that some people will buy different brands or pay a premium for the UK ones.

murphaph · 14-10-2017 04:28PM

demfad wrote: »

Acording to an attendee at Leo Varadker's address to Derry Chamber of Commerce yesterday evening, NI has been offered a one time deal by the EU, but they must ask for it. Exceptions will be on offer to NI....

Now would be just about the right time for all parties to cut the crap and get back to Stormont if this is true. This needs debating in public. I strongly suspect the UK government will allow NI just about any special status within the single market, if they can consider that issue dealt with. It's the hardest issue to deal with in reality but the least politically sensitive in GB.

I personally don't see this going anywhere though. There's no way the DUP will sanction it. I don't even believe it is in NI's economic interest, though depending on the ratios of trade and their respective tariffs, i might be, just about (eg if NI exports little food to GB but lots of high value manufactured goods with lower tariffs and the opposite to the EU)

If the EU has offered such, it's certainly "bold and imaginative"

murphaph · 14-10-2017 04:31PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

I forgot to mention the fall in sterling means that UK goods should be cheaper. So overall UK most imports shouldn't be more expensive.

Tariffs may affect some things, though, but even it just means that some people will buy different brands or pay a premium for the UK ones.

This isn't a simple thing to calculate. Say you buy a frozen lasagne from a UK manufacturer. Sure, Sterling is weak but the UK manufacturer had to import the lasagne sheets and tomatoes etc. from the EU, paying hefty tariffs in the process. The supply chains are so integrated these days I suspect a lot of products would simply stop being manufactured or manufactured elsewhere.

Leaving the SM and CU is just completely bonkers on every level.

murphaph · 14-10-2017 04:38PM

A Little Pony wrote: »

Good. Get out ASAP is fine by me. No issue whatsoever with that.

Even if a family member couldn't get radiotherapy because the UK dropped out of Euratom overnight and that isotope they need has just run out? You behave as if walking out the door and slamming it behind you has no consequences or only minor ones. The consequences of walking out tomorrow would be catastrophic for the UK and damaging for the EU, especially Ireland, but absolutely catastrophic for the UK.

The UK could not even import food unless it dropped ALL tariffs on imports from ALL countries as there are no UK quotas deposited at the WTO. British farming would be destroyed in a few weeks by cheap imports.

flutered · 14-10-2017 05:39PM

murphaph wrote: »

Now would be just about the right time for all parties to cut the crap and get back to Stormont if this is true. This needs debating in public. I strongly suspect the UK government will allow NI just about any special status within the single market, if they can consider that issue dealt with. It's the hardest issue to deal with in reality but the least politically sensitive in GB.

I personally don't see this going anywhere though. There's no way the DUP will sanction it. I don't even believe it is in NI's economic interest, though depending on the ratios of trade and their respective tariffs, i might be, just about (eg if NI exports little food to GB but lots of high value manufactured goods with lower tariffs and the opposite to the EU)

If the EU has offered such, it's certainly "bold and imaginative"

the dup has today rejected powersharing, according to breakingnews.ie

flutered · 14-10-2017 05:40PM

murphaph wrote: »

Even if a family member couldn't get radiotherapy because the UK dropped out of Euratom overnight and that isotope they need has just run out? You behave as if walking out the door and slamming it behind you has no consequences or only minor ones. The consequences of walking out tomorrow would be catastrophic for the UK and damaging for the EU, especially Ireland, but absolutely catastrophic for the UK.

The UK could not even import food unless it dropped ALL tariffs on imports from ALL countries as there are no UK quotas deposited at the WTO. British farming would be destroyed in a few weeks by cheap imports.

there are none so blind as theose that cannot see

FrancieBrady · 14-10-2017 05:43PM

murphaph wrote: »

Even if a family member couldn't get radiotherapy because the UK dropped out of Euratom overnight and that isotope they need has just run out? You behave as if walking out the door and slamming it behind you has no consequences or only minor ones. The consequences of walking out tomorrow would be catastrophic for the UK and damaging for the EU, especially Ireland, but absolutely catastrophic for the UK.

The UK could not even import food unless it dropped ALL tariffs on imports from ALL countries as there are no UK quotas deposited at the WTO. British farming would be destroyed in a few weeks by cheap imports.

As far as I can see and understand everything is being sacrificed for a feeling of control. Because that is all it is - a feeling.

carrickbally · 14-10-2017 05:49PM

The UK proposal that it join NAFTA as is highlighted in the Daily Telegraph ignores the risks involved.

At present Trump has declared an aircraft factory in Canada subject to high levels of tariffs even though both countries are in NAFTA.

carrickbally · 14-10-2017 05:54PM

The basic facts of Brexit get lost in the details.

The fact is that the EU is a union of nearly thirty democracies each of which signed a treaty to cooperate in matters of mutual interest.

That level of cooperation between independent countries, which includes vetoes in matters of vital national interest, is unique in the world.

It better than the past when imperial governments and totalitarian dictators reduced Europe to ruins in rows over which of them would be top dog.

We should all remind ourselves how much better it is being in the EU than it was when this country was governed as a colony from London.

The same power base in London has currently declared economic war on us through Brexit.

We should, therefore, remind the rest of the EU that we will use our treaty approved veto in relation to this if we have to.

flutered · 14-10-2017 06:12PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

So the new inter change inBelfast that this money will pay for can only be used by unionists?

Yes, that seems very unfair.

this money has not been recieved as yet, or has there been a date set for its arrival

Enzokk · 14-10-2017 06:13PM

flutered wrote: »

the dup has today rejected powersharing, according to breakingnews.ie

Seems like talks have stalled.

DUP rules out swift return of powersharing Executive

So there is nobody talking for the people of Northern Ireland at the moment. The party that has the voice of the government is not the party that has the power, the DUP. Is is any wonder the DUP doesn't want a return to power sharing in Belfast? They can delay and the voice falls to the UK parliament, where they have the Conservatives by the balls. What incentive do they have to compromise?

This is why the deal with the DUP is bonkers. There is zero incentive to share power in Belfast when they can control London. And people still talks about the UK government remaining impartial? If they have to have direct rule in Belfast how would that work? The DUP is basically in power. The UK government will have direct rule from London where they rely in the DUP. Do I have that right?

FrancieBrady · 14-10-2017 06:24PM

Enzokk wrote: »

So there is nobody talking for the people of Northern Ireland at the moment.

I think that is a bit of misnomer on the issue of Brexit to be honest.

The views of each party on Brexit are well known.

Fratton Fred · 14-10-2017 06:43PM

flutered wrote: »

this money has not been recieved as yet, or has there been a date set for its arrival

There’s no Stormont to spend it

Capt'n Midnight · 14-10-2017 06:48PM

murphaph wrote: »

This isn't a simple thing to calculate. Say you buy a frozen lasagne from a UK manufacturer. Sure, Sterling is weak but the UK manufacturer had to import the lasagne sheets and tomatoes etc. from the EU, paying hefty tariffs in the process. The supply chains are so integrated these days I suspect a lot of products would simply stop being manufactured or manufactured elsewhere.

Leaving the SM and CU is just completely bonkers on every level.

Like I said , choose a different (EU) brand or pay a premium for the UK one.

What you describe is a low tech product that could be made anywhere. All of the large multinationals have alternative factorys.

All of the supermarkets would switch supplier in a heartbeat if they could get the same quality for their own-brands at a cheaper price.

This is more of a problem for the UK factory than their multi-national owners or the supermarkets.

Of course expect some price gouging using Brexit as an excuse to squeeze a bit of extra profit from confusion, just like when VAT rates change or when the Euro came in.

flutered · 14-10-2017 06:48PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

There’s no Stormont to spend it

so the torys are off the hook for 5m, handy when bobs are scarce

murphaph · 14-10-2017 07:03PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Like I said , choose a different (EU) brand or pay a premium for the UK one.

What you describe is a low tech product that could be made anywhere. All of the large multinationals have alternative factorys.

All of the supermarkets would switch supplier in a heartbeat if they could get the same quality for their own-brands at a cheaper price.

This is more of a problem for the UK factory than their multi-national owners or the supermarkets.

Of course expect some price gouging using Brexit as an excuse to squeeze a bit of extra profit from confusion, just like when VAT rates change or when the Euro came in.

The thing is, the Irish market is really small. At the moment that's no problem, because we tag along with the UK market, so a lasagne destined for the UK can be sold in Ireland no problem. If Unilever can't (economically) sell lasagne made in a UK factory they are (IMO) unlikely to start a production line in a Belgian factory to produce lasagne with packaging suitable for the small Irish market, especially if the UK plays silly beggars and actually shipping the product through the UK takes longer (and therefore costs more). Even if they do, stuff will be more expensive for sure given the longer path to market and reduced economy of scale.

I honestly see a thinning out of products on Irish supermarket shelves, because our market isn't big enough and everything has to be shipped in. I do expect a good degree of new home grown replacements for lost UK products, but I believe these will be on the expensive side, not profiting from any economy of scale.

We may go back to Lidl and Aldi selling their German assortment with the odd Irish product in the mix. When the German discounters first arrived in Ireland and the UK, that's how it was.

Fratton Fred · 14-10-2017 07:20PM

murphaph wrote: »

The thing is, the Irish market is really small. At the moment that's no problem, because we tag along with the UK market, so a lasagne destined for the UK can be sold in Ireland no problem. If Unilever can't (economically) sell lasagne made in a UK factory they are (IMO) unlikely to start a production line in a Belgian factory to produce lasagne with packaging suitable for the small Irish market, especially if the UK plays silly beggars and actually shipping the product through the UK takes longer (and therefore costs more). Even if they do, stuff will be more expensive for sure given the longer path to market and reduced economy of scale.

I honestly see a thinning out of products on Irish supermarket shelves, because our market isn't big enough and everything has to be shipped in. I do expect a good degree of new home grown replacements for lost UK products, but I believe these will be on the expensive side, not profiting from any economy of scale.

We may go back to Lidl and Aldi selling their German assortment with the odd Irish product in the mix. When the German discounters first arrived in Ireland and the UK, that's how it was.

Just an aside, but the largest frozen ready meal factory in Europe is actually in Monaghan.

murphthesmurf · 14-10-2017 07:40PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning everyone!

Yes, and no. You can decide to pull the plug on things if you think they won't be viable. An example, which is now under construction is when the Pinnacle was being built on Bishopsgate. The stump of the lift shaft was left unconstructed for years. The project was suspended during the recession. Now they have decided to build 22 Bishopsgate on the same site. If the investors thought that the project wasn't viable they'd cut their losses and move on. Of course they would save themselves the hundreds of millions it costs to build these towers if they believed they wouldn't be filled.

The same with the London HQ for Google under construction at Kings Cross. That is a huge building, and it is obviously being built there because Google see that they have a long term future in the UK. The same is true for Facebook. In terms of the banks in the City, the fact that a lot of them are looking for real estate to solidify their presence in London confirms a confidence that the City is going to remain a financial hub post-Brexit.

My point was basically this, the idea that the UK is going to hell in a handcart is myth. It doesn't bear any reality on the ground from what I can see. Particularly when people say that the City in particular is going to hell in a handcart considering I head to work there every day.

Is the economy subdued? Yes, due to uncertainty, but it is still growing in defiance of all the expectations people had in respect to it.

This is the type of comment that betrays where people are coming from. There is a latent Anglophobia on this thread. Britain pulls above its weight in the world in many areas from science to finance. Is Britain the same as it was when it was an empire? No! But will Britain stop being an innovative country after Brexit, I doubt it. Britain is a significant player in the world. It is actually the most significant player in European defence also.

Keep calm and carry on is the right option. Being carried away by the flutterings in the press, or the flutterings of individuals on this thread is the best way of getting a bad deal that isn't in the interests of the UK. That's why I've said that if people like you were negotiating for the UK you'd just have rolled over and given them the crown jewels and the keys to Buckingham Palace.

This history, although important in understanding continental Europe has no relevance in understanding modern Britain. Britain's modern history is different to that of mainland Europe. They are intertwined, but not linked.

It has no relevance for the reason I mentioned 2 months ago on this thread:

As for Britain situating itself closer to America both economically and militarily I suspect that is an inevitability. It is an inevitability I'm not concerned about, in fact I think it could be a good move for the UK. Rebuilding ties with the Anglosphere would be hugely beneficial in addition to strengthening ties elsewhere.

It's worth pointing out that Ireland has a different reason for membership to the EU than Germany. It follows the EU as a social good model:

The political philosophy point about where Britain fits into the European Union is one that hasn't be resolved for 40 years. The vast majority of Britain have little to no connection to "the European project". I'll include myself in that definition despite being Irish. I voted to remain for selfish don't rock the status quo reasons. I don't have any passion for "the European project" at all.

I agree that Britain has punched above its weight for hundreds of years and I think it will continue to do so.

People on this thread have constructed the narrative that Britain is falling apart, but that's nothing close to the reality on the ground. Yes, the economy is subdued due to uncertainty, but to keep calm and meticulously do the work required rather than jumping at everything that appears in the press is the right way to go about it.

There won't be a u-turn on Brexit as much as people would like it. EU membership wasn't working for the UK, and the UK's membership wasn't working for the EU. Simply put.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Brilliant post and agree with everything you said. You put the argument forward far better than i could.

David Cameron asked the EU to give him something to fight with regarding immigration. They refused.
Militarily the UK leaving the EU is a great loss. I read recently that the UK is the 4th or 5th most powerful military force in the world.

murphaph · 14-10-2017 07:58PM

Fratton Fred wrote: »

Just an aside, but the largest frozen ready meal factory in Europe is actually in Monaghan.

I'm not surprised by this, but I would be fearing for my job if I worked there because I'll bet the majority of what they make is sold in the UK.

Nody · 14-10-2017 08:00PM

murphthesmurf wrote: »

Militarily the UK leaving the EU is a great loss. I read recently that the UK is the 4th or 5th most powerful military force in the world.

Sorry but France is stronger and more capable as well due to the foreign legion allowing them to deploy far faster and effective (see their activities in Africa for example).

Professor Moriarty · 14-10-2017 08:03PM

Nody wrote: »

Sorry but France is stronger and more capable as well due to the foreign legion allowing them to deploy far faster and effective (see their activities in Africa for example).

So is Italy.

murphaph · 14-10-2017 08:04PM

murphthesmurf wrote: »

Brilliant post and agree with everything you said. You put the argument forward far better than i could.

David Cameron asked the EU to give him something to fight with regarding immigration. They refused.
Militarily the UK leaving the EU is a great loss. I read recently that the UK is the 4th or 5th most powerful military force in the world.

Lol. They refused because HE ALREADY HAD SOMETHING TO FIGHT WITH.

If you as an EU citizen come here to Germany to live, you have 3 months to find a job or go home (or support yourself financially some other way, INCLUDING having state approved health insurance. It is illegal to live here without health insurance). Germany sends UK citizens home if they become a burden on the welfare system without having clocked up 5 years of permanent residence.

Most western European countries also make use of the long established EU law which permits this. Only the UK chose not to bother. All those Romanians the Daily Mail hates so much could have been legally deported years ago.

murphaph · 14-10-2017 08:07PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

So is Italy.

I don't think any non-Nuclear country could be described as militarily stronger than a country with nukes. The UK would definitely be second only to France in military might in the EU.

Enzokk · 14-10-2017 08:08PM

murphthesmurf wrote: »

Brilliant post and agree with everything you said. You put the argument forward far better than i could.

David Cameron asked the EU to give him something to fight with regarding immigration. They refused.
Militarily the UK leaving the EU is a great loss. I read recently that the UK is the 4th or 5th most powerful military force in the world.

Are you aware that the UK had the power to expel EU citizens if they didn't find work after 3 months? This is done in other EU countries so there is no law that prevents this. What else should the EU have given David Cameron? He already had the law there to apply stringent immigration rules and the UK government chose not to enforce them. Crying about it now is just silly.

Brexit discussion thread II

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