Brexit discussion thread II

carrickbally wrote:

The alternative is change their mind and stay members of the EU.

Im not sure that's an option now, as A50 is triggered I doubt it can be withdrawn. Plus I doubt there's an appetite to get back into bed with the UK.
If that were a possibility, I think their terms would need changing, no special allowances such as they move to the euro currency etc..

Mr.Micro wrote: »

What is clear, May et all do not have a clue. The NI issue was clearly never even considered when the Brexit campaign started. There is no solution to it as things stand. Still May and Johnson will just muddle on. They are so messed up that idealism has replaced practicality and reality.

And to add to the mix you have the DUP who actively campaigned for Brexit and whose campaign is against the will of the people in Northern Ireland, but they are the party of influence in Westminster.

I find it interesting that the will of the people is important, but not when it comes to Northern Ireland. Their parties can do what they think it right, by voting for Brexit, but other politicians must do what their constituents voted for even if it is against their own personal opinion.

Seems to me that following the will of the people is only important if it is your will as well.

Enzokk wrote: »

And the response is predictable from the EU Commission,

EU: ‘Brexit ball is in Britain’s court’




So the response is in before the speech is made, is this one of the first time where a speech is made and its already out of date?

Yes. Barnier said post her Florence speech that her words needed to be reflected by meaningful negotiation by the British team. That would be the test.

The worry was that the Florence speech was just a stunt to pretent the UK were being reasonable to justify a 'no-deal'. Still a worry.

Fratton Fred wrote: »

when did this happen?

Was it in the news? I didn't read about it

Don't be silly now Fred. The GFA is underlined by common membership of the EU.

murphaph wrote: »

Don't be silly now Fred. The GFA is underlined by common membership of the EU.

Common membership of the EU helps the GFA, but it is not essential to the GFA, nor is it a pre-condition, nor is it a requirement of the GFA and Brexit does not breach any provision of the GFA.

blanch152 wrote: »

Common membership of the EU helps the GFA, but it is not essential to the GFA, nor is it a pre-condition, nor is it a requirement of the GFA and Brexit does not breach any provision of the GFA.

There is no way the GFA would have come about if there had been a hard land border all along. The IRA and their loyalist opposite numbers would still be murdering people to this day IMO.

It's clear that fudging the border which became a possibility with the advent of the single market and customs union paved the way for the GFA.

Legally the IRA should not have been murdering anyone but they did. There is a difference between the letter and the spirit of the agreement. The UK should have given the GFA much more prominence in the Brexit debate.

Speaking to business leaders in Brussels, John Bruton accused the British government of being hopelessly divided, and offering only a vague and impractical vision of what might come once the UK leaves the bloc in 2019.

If it got into detail, the disagreement between cabinet members is so deep that the Conservative party would split and the government would fall,” Bruton told the Institute of Directors.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/09/eu-cannot-rely-on-uk-to-stick-to-brexit-deal-because-of-cabinet-divisions

Bruton's reading of the situation is very similar to the reading of the situation many of us here have suggested. We are see internal party politics played out on the international stage.

blanch152 wrote: »

I have little or no sympathy for the British position, they haven't a clue what they have let themselves in for.

Yet I cannot let this lie stand. Posters on here have repeatedly been asked as to which provisions of the GFA have been or will be broken by Brexit, even a hard Brexit.

The most prominent of the posters on this backed down to Brexit breaching the "spirit" of the Agreement, whatever that is. There have been other dark mutterings about a return to violence etc., but there is still yet to be seen a single line of the GFA that somebody can point to and state that this will be broken by Brexit.

Lets take just on Strand of the GFA: North South Cooperation

Implementation bodies:

• Language Body
• Special EU Programmes
• InterTradeIreland
• Foyle, Carlingford and Irish Lights
• Waterways Ireland
• Food Safety Promotion Board

Having the EU, customs Union and particularly single market as a base allows these bodies to do what they need to do.
The special EU programme's would obviously be gone.
IntertradeIreland would now have to concentrate solely in limiting the affects of disastrous trade/non trade barriers/delays at border/Country of origin Issues, non recognition of qualification issues, movement of workers issues, legal differences.
Legal differences would now complicate waterways operations out of practicality. Food safety would need to concentrate on regulatory divergence rather than: food safety.

Let's look at areas of Significant progress in these strands and how Brexit undermines, changes, destroys them.

• Trade and Business Development:
  Enough said here.
• Roads and Road Safety
  Legal uncertainty, EU funding gone.
• Child Protection
  Legal uncertainty, regulatory divergence
• Health
  Legal uncertainty, regulatory divergence
• Animal Health and Welfare
  Movement of animals cross border complicated and prohibited by CO rules.
• Environment
  One environmental policy via EU shaterred. Every indication that UK will need to reduce environmental regulations to allow the big corpos in via the US deal. No agreement in thsi vital issue.
• Tourism
  Legal uncerainty, delays, complication.
• Inland Waterways & Loughs
• EU Structural Funds
  Gone.
• Cross Border Mobility
  No longer mobile. Hard border most likely.

This is but one Strand of what the GFA was set up to IMPROVE on this Island.
This is the tangible output of the benefits of the GFA.
With Brexit, North/South cooperation/integration is set back to a place worse than before the GFA was signed. Except now there are legal, trade, social and political barriers to getting back.
The function of many of these bodies changes to trying to reduce the adverse
affects of Brexit rather than doing what they were set up to do.

This is not looking at the legal aspects of the GFA which will be challenged I am sure. We simply don't know legally if the GFA has been breached.

What we can say is that Brexit will in effect destroy it. The GFA was designed for an Island/Islands wholly inside the single market with regulatory and legal equivalence to base cooperation and progress on.

Brexit renders that design obsolete.

demfad wrote: »

Lets take just on Strand of the GFA: North South Cooperation

Implementation bodies:

• Language Body
• Special EU Programmes
• InterTradeIreland
• Foyle, Carlingford and Irish Lights
• Waterways Ireland
• Food Safety Promotion Board

Having the EU, customs Union and particularly single market as a base allows these bodies to do what they need to do.
The special EU programme's would obviously be gone.
IntertradeIreland would now have to concentrate solely in limiting the affects of disastrous trade/non trade barriers/delays at border/Country of origin Issues, non recognition of qualification issues, movement of workers issues, legal differences.
Legal differences would now complicate waterways operations out of practicality. Food safety would need to concentrate on regulatory divergence rather than: food safety.

Let's look at areas of Significant progress in these strands and how Brexit undermines, changes, destroys them.

• Trade and Business Development:
  Enough said here.
• Roads and Road Safety
  Legal uncertainty, EU funding gone.
• Child Protection
  Legal uncertainty, regulatory divergence
• Health
  Legal uncertainty, regulatory divergence
• Animal Health and Welfare
  Movement of animals cross border complicated and prohibited by CO rules.
• Environment
  One environmental policy via EU shaterred. Every indication that UK will need to reduce environmental regulations to allow the big corpos in via the US deal. No agreement in thsi vital issue.
• Tourism
  Legal uncerainty, delays, complication.
• Inland Waterways & Loughs
• EU Structural Funds
  Gone.
• Cross Border Mobility
  No longer mobile. Hard border most likely.

This is but one Strand of what the GFA was set up to IMPROVE on this Island.
This is the tangible output of the benefits of the GFA.
With Brexit, North/South cooperation/integration is set back to a place worse than before the GFA was signed. Except now there are legal, trade, social and political barriers to getting back.
The function of many of these bodies changes to trying to reduce the adverse
affects of Brexit rather than doing what they were set up to do.

This is not looking at the legal aspects of the GFA which will be challenged I am sure. We simply don't know legally if the GFA has been breached.

What we can say is that Brexit will in effect destroy it. The GFA was designed for an Island/Islands wholly inside the single market with regulatory and legal equivalence to base cooperation and progress on.

Brexit renders that design obsolete.

Again, all very well, but none of that is directly from the terms of the GFA.

Brexit will change the manner in which the GFA is implemented. Brexit will change the topics for that Strand of the GFA, but nothing in Brexit will breach the GFA.

blanch152 wrote: »

Again, all very well, but none of that is directly from the terms of the GFA.

Brexit will change the manner in which the GFA is implemented. Brexit will change the topics for that Strand of the GFA, but nothing in Brexit will breach the GFA.

The DUP-Tory alliance does. Breaks the "rigorous impartialty" agreed on in the GFA.

Zubeneschamali wrote:

This is not to say they will be in a better position in January 2018, but they certainly cannot now agree to pay, say, a 60 billion divorce bill, agree an open-ended "transitional period" including freedom of movement, budget contributions and EU court oversight.

Yes that looks very likely, not sure on the 60b, could be 30b, but it's a large wedge.

But I don't think the EU will go into an open ended deal, the EU won't want to set a precedence, I guess a time limit on the extension and the extension could be contingent on getting agreements on tasks such as NI border, movement of people etc at set timescales, or the extension would be cancelled.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Well, yes, I think they expect the Tory party to be too busy with infighting and party politics to do any real negotiating, and the media to be faithfully blaming the EU for any lack of progress.

This is not to say they will be in a better position in January 2018, but they certainly cannot now agree to pay, say, a 60 billion divorce bill, agree an open-ended "transitional period" including freedom of movement, budget contributions and EU court oversight.

This is what they will agree to eventually (or Corbyn will), but they can't admit it right now.

The possibilities now might be:

• No-Deal Brexit: 50:50 chance I think. Discussions break down. UK leaves without an agreement. Disaster followed by desperate bid to rejoin a tarnsition.
• Transition then EFTA: If they (UK) get their act together. Solves all issues. They cant negotiate teh deals they need to otherwise.
• No Brexit: The big red stop button: Authors of A50 say its revocable (by UK parliament), Tusk agrees. More likely as time moves on, probably after referendum.

demfad wrote: »

How do you know this? Surely you wont know until (for example) cases are taken against the British Government after Brexit.

If the UK decides to deport EU citizens or not allow anyone EU citizen status in the UK this could breach GFA. What If the UK ceases using the ECHR for arbitration or replaces it with a fundamentally different body?

You dont know, and you should stop saying you do.

In the case of a hard Brexit the GFA is fundamentally altered in ALL STRANDS, and is no longer fit for the purpose for which it was created.
Hard Brexit de facto destroys the GFA.

That is why Ireland and the EU are protecting it.

The point in bold can be disputed but the point I have constantly made is that Brexit does not de jure breach the GFA and that is undisputed.

What the UK does with EU citizens is meaningless because the GFA confers dual citizenship on people born in Northern Ireland meaning they have a right to remain in the UK because of where they are born. It is one of the biggest lies of Brexit that it affects people born in Northern Ireland.

As for the ECHR, GFA requires that certain rights be afforded to people, it doesn't mandate that those rights be enforced by the ECHR, anyway Brexit has absolutely ZERO to do with the ECHR.

steddyeddy wrote: »

You really don't seem to care about the border and how it might break the spirit of the GFA and the effect that might have on peace in Northern Ireland.

Unless of course, that border is in the sea and Northern Ireland's in the single market. Then you erupt with a passionate post about how that' impossible despite by infinitely more beneficial to Northern Ireland than a land border.

Anybody not even familiar with our economics and political history can see instantly that a land border would be disastrous for this island.
But the DUP having sacrificed the north to Brexit - just because they did not want to be on the same side (and immediately rowed back on it when it surprisingly passed) - will now refuse to take the less damaging option ( a sea border) for the exact same reasons - foolish and stubborn pride.