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Brexit discussion thread II

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  • #4052
    swampgas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,617 ✭✭✭swampgas


    blanch152 wrote: »
    To use a famous political quotation - it's the economy, stupid.

    Northern Ireland will suffer more economically with an Irish Sea border - its closest economic ties are with the rest of the UK. Ironically, large Protestant farmers will suffer most with a hard border with the Republic, might make them rethink on the unity question.

    The economic effects on NI are only one factor being considered by the British government. The economy of the UK as a whole, and of England, is going to get most of their attention. If they have to throw the NI economy under a bus to secure a deal that protects the much larger economy of GB, well I wouldn't be so sure that "it's the economy, stupid" wouldn't be wheeled out to justify doing just that.


  • #4053
    jm08
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,338 ✭✭✭✭jm08


    Calina wrote: »
    That is Ray Bassett's paper, isn't it? It has been massively criticised.

    That adds more weight to it as Policy Exchange have come up with the figure of 65% of NI's agricultural exports go to Ireland (and not the UK).

    Thats time sensitive produce that will perish if held up (unlike Bombardier plane parts, or London Busses).


  • #4054
    steddyeddy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,565 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Except that most of their trade is with the rest of the UK, not with the South.

    A hard border with the Republic would be a serious economic problem for Northern Ireland, a border on the Irish Sea would be an economic disaster. It is extremely short-sighted of republicans to be calling for a border on the Irish Sea because of this. It will lead to the people of the North blaming the border on the Irish Sea for their economic disaster and wishing to have the border with the Six Counties reinstated*. By contrast, if a hard border with the South is seen as the cause of economic problems, it will increase pressure for closer ties with the South.




    *Unless of course you believe in the fairytale that a united island economy is the solution to all our problems.

    Not everyone who disagrees with you is a republican. A land border contravenes the Good Friday agreement. That's why people are looking for a solution not involving a land border.

    Here's a fact that's being overlooked. Most of Northern Ireland's trade is with the rest of the EU. 54.7% is exported to other EU countries, 33% to Ireland. They were in receipt of massive EU grants and also agriculture grants.

    A border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK would mean Northern Ireland staying in the single market. This would mean no tariffs on goods to EU countries, grants for business and agriculture and passporting rights for financial services.

    You seriously think staying in the single market will be a bigger economic disaster than having a sea border between Northern Ireland and Britain? It seems that you're presenting an ideological opposition rather than an economic one.


  • #4055
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,052 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    steddyeddy wrote: »
    Not everyone who disagrees with you is a republican. A land border contravenes the Good Friday agreement. That's why people are looking for a solution not involving a land border.

    Here's a fact that's being overlooked. Most of Northern Ireland's trade is with the rest of the EU. 54.7% is exported to other EU countries, 33% to Ireland. They were in receipt of massive EU grants and also agriculture grants.

    A border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK would mean Northern Ireland staying in the single market. This would mean no tariffs on goods to EU countries, grants for business and agriculture and passporting rights for financial services.

    You seriously think staying in the single market will be a bigger economic disaster than having a sea border between Northern Ireland and Britain? It seems that you're presenting an ideological opposition rather than an economic one.

    I have asked a number of times how a sea border would be significantly more damaging in an economic disaster for the north - one way or another.
    Not getting much by way of an answer,


  • #4056
    Jim2007
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,891 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    steddyeddy wrote: »
    A land border contravenes the Good Friday agreement.

    Where exactly is that reference coming from? The GFA makes ten references to the border, all in the context of cross border cooperation. It makes no reference to the nature of the border and indeed seems to accept that the border will be a fact of life for the foreseeable future given the emphasis of cross-border cooperation.


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  • #4057
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,052 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    Where exactly is that reference coming from? The GFA makes ten references to the border, all in the context of cross border cooperation. It makes no reference to the nature of the border and indeed seems to accept that the border will be a fact of life for the foreseeable future given the emphasis of cross-border cooperation.
    Brexit clearly impacts on a number of elements of the GFA, and foremost among these is the issue of citizenship and identity. The agreement made specific allowances for the people of Northern Ireland to be recognised and accepted as Irish or British citizens (or both). Many have availed of their right to hold an Irish passport. While this is unlikely to change after Brexit, it gives rise to the unprecedented situation in which several hundred thousand Irish citizens will, overnight and in most cases against their will, find themselves outside the European Union.

    Questions can also be raised over the future of North-South bodies established under the GFA. Some of these bodies either exist exclusively to disburse EU peace and reconciliation funds (funds which themselves could evaporate after Brexit), or have an explicit mandate to consider the EU dimension of bilateral relations, including relevant programmes and policy implementation.

    And one cannot discuss Northern Ireland today without returning to the question of the deeply symbolic open border with Ireland. Through the combination of EU and bilateral rules on free movement and rights to residence, membership of the EU’s customs union, and the Good Friday Agreement the border had until recently all but receded into memory. Brexit reopens the question of customs posts, at the very least, and creative solutions must be employed to ensure that neither cross-border trade nor intercommunity relations suffer unduly.

    http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_hard_borders_of_the_mind_brexit_northern_ireland_and_the_7273


  • #4058
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,608 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    swampgas wrote: »
    The economic effects on NI are only one factor being considered by the British government. The economy of the UK as a whole, and of England, is going to get most of their attention. If they have to throw the NI economy under a bus to secure a deal that protects the much larger economy of GB, well I wouldn't be so sure that "it's the economy, stupid" wouldn't be wheeled out to justify doing just that.

    He doesn't seem to get that NI is not an equal member of the UK. It's a problem child that will be easily disposed of. All that matters is what is good for England and to a lesser extent Scotland. There will be a sea border between NI and the rest of the UK. It's geography stupid.


  • #4059
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,863 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    But May is stuck with the DUP, ATM. That alters things, for the present.


  • #4060
    ambro25
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,986 ✭✭✭ambro25


    Baron de Charlus wrote: »
    ambro25 wrote: »
    I agree with your first point. But an "indefinite transition period" doesn't work for business and industry, which require certainty for lengthy structural/contextual predictability. It would not solve the economical issues anticipated form Brexit (-eventual form irrespective).

    True. But what's the alternative? I don't any firm would prefer a sudden withdrawal in 2019.
    Perversely, that 'sudden withdrawal in 2019' provides its own certainty for business and industry.

    Which goes a long way to explain the increasingly (brutally-) frank views (openly dissing May & Co.) publicly expressed by ever more respectable business leaders of ever bigger FTSE & foreign companies.

    No.10 and the Tory body political have been merrily peeing UK plc's goodwill up a wall since around February 2016, and UK plc 'shareholders' are warning No.10 that the bladder is getting to its last dregs.


  • #4061
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    steddyeddy wrote: »
    You seriously think staying in the single market will be a bigger economic disaster than having a sea border between Northern Ireland and Britain? It seems that you're presenting an ideological opposition rather than an economic one.

    As an economic question, there is no question but that staying in the single market is the better option for the six.

    The issue is a political one - unionist sensibilities about creeping further from London, and closer to Dublin. And it is an understandable one. I dont think violence will result, but it will be a very bitter pill for them to swallow - with no real inbetween solution possible to assuage. Other than money. Which will flow from both London and the EU to make it work as best as possible. It will be imperfect - but no one said Brexit was going to be a victimless crime.


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  • #4062
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,052 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »
    As an economic question, there is no question but that staying in the single market is the better option for the six.

    The issue is a political one - unionist sensibilities about creeping further from London, and closer to Dublin. And it is an understandable one. I dont think violence will result, but it will be a very bitter pill for them to swallow - with no real inbetween solution possible to assuage. Other than money. Which will flow from both London and the EU to make it work as best as possible. It will be imperfect - but no one said Brexit was going to be a victimless crime.

    I'm sure it is not lost on Arlene that the DUP risk handing electoral dominance back to the UUP (or damaging the DUP so badly that unionism itself would be politically weakened) over their support for Brexit.
    Finding a way to agree to a sea border would be an astute move...but then this is the DUP.


  • #4063
    blanch152
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,967 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_hard_borders_of_the_mind_brexit_northern_ireland_and_the_7273

    That isn't a quotation from the Good Friday Agreement.


  • #4064
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,052 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    blanch152 wrote: »
    That isn't a quotation from the Good Friday Agreement.

    Did I say it was?

    I posted a quote and a link to where it came from. If it was from the GFA them I would have linked to that.


  • #4065
    steddyeddy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,565 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    blanch152 wrote: »
    That isn't a quotation from the Good Friday Agreement.

    Given up on the economic arguement yet?


  • #4066
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,052 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    steddyeddy wrote: »
    Given up on the economic arguement yet?

    He hasn't made one. Just stated a sea border will never happen for economic reasons.

    The only reason I can see for not doing it is fear of hurting pride. Seems the only option in this particular posters textbook is to appease the DUP on all things.


  • #4067
    blanch152
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,967 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    :) We have just had the biggest single mass shooting in the US despite the 'hardening'.
    And according to some, western civilisation is under threat from ISIS.
    So public opinion is clearly not all it is cracked up to be.


    Have you missed the widespread condemnation of the Las Vegas shooting? Yes, it will be impossible to stop individual nutcases like him - and I am sure there are few good republicans who will try and protest a border, but in the world of today, it would be impossible to secure public support for such violence and to organise it as before.

    FrancieBrady wrote: »

    Please explain how a sea border will be much more economically damaging than an - all things considered - hard border?

    This was covered extensively early in the Border and Brexit thread. No need to repeat it here.


  • #4068
    blanch152
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,967 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    He hasn't made one. Just stated a sea border will never happen for economic reasons.

    The only reason I can see for not doing it is fear of hurting pride. Seems the only option in this particular posters textbook is to appease the DUP on all things.


    To quote something someone once said:

    "Could you possibly write a post that is not about trying to have a go at how you perceive me? That would be good."

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=104219055&postcount=56


  • #4069
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    blanch152 wrote: »
    This was covered extensively early in the Border and Brexit thread. No need to repeat it here.

    It was. The sea border being significantly less economically harmful to NI is beyond dispute at this point.


  • #4070
    steddyeddy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,565 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Have you missed the widespread condemnation of the Las Vegas shooting? Yes, it will be impossible to stop individual nutcases like him - and I am sure there are few good republicans who will try and protest a border, but in the world of today, it would be impossible to secure public support for such violence and to organise it as before.




    This was covered extensively early in the Border and Brexit thread. No need to repeat it here.

    Access to the biggest single market in the world VS a sea border. You're not repeating the arguement because it's nonsense, not because it was repeated elsewhere.


  • #4071
    blanch152
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,967 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »
    It was. The sea border being significantly less economically harmful to NI is beyond dispute at this point.
    steddyeddy wrote: »
    Access to the biggest single market in the world VS a sea border. You're not repeating the arguement because it's nonsense, not because it was repeated elsewhere.

    No, it wasn't, it was clearly established the opposite is the case. The export statistics quoted in this thread don't include internal trade within the UK.

    Northern Ireland is dependent on mainland UK economically, it could not survive outside of that dependency.

    Anyway, my views or yours don't matter, the GFA is absolutely clear on one point, the status of Northern Ireland is a matter for the people of Northern Ireland to decide, not for the European Parliament, not for the Irish Government, and certainly not for some internet posters to decide. And I certainly don't see them deciding for an Irish Sea border, do you?

    Neither are we going to see a 500km wall, as some of the scaremongers are suggesting. What we will see is technology, number plate recognition, cameras, etc.


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  • #4072
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    Some choice quotes from the tory conference :
    (and no, I didnt even have to make ANY of these up myself!)

    Boris : “Without pain and doubt and anxiety, there can be no pleasure, no triumph and no success. There is no country better placed than Britain. Let that lion roar.” "I can tell you, the whole Cabinet is united."


    Rees-Mogg : “It’s Waterloo, it’s Agincourt, it’s Crécy … we win all these things".


    Davis : “There is a determined exercise in Whitehall devoted to every contingency. Prizes for success are enormous, as are the costs of failure.”
    “But we are the country of William Shakespeare and Jane Austen, of Alexander Fleming and James Dyson." "David Beckham's left foot, come to that".



    (OK, the last line I did rob - but it doesnt even sound out of place!).


  • #4073
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    blanch152 wrote: »
    What we will see is technology, number plate recognition, cameras, etc.

    'Magical thinking' is the technical term you are looking for here.

    No. A border in the Irish sea is the only workable solution. If Brexit goes ahead of course.


  • #4074
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,052 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    blanch152 wrote: »
    To quote something someone once said:

    "Could you possibly write a post that is not about trying to have a go at how you perceive me? That would be good."

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=104219055&postcount=56

    You want republicans to appease the DUP on rights, and you don't agree with a sea border. The only problem with which is unionist pride.

    Is there anything untrue there? In these instances that is how I perceive your argument.


  • #4075
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,052 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    After Brexit what is going to hinder the north shipping product into the UK? Customs?


  • #4076
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,394 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Lest there be any lingering doubt as to the true nature of the Little Englander mentality of the Tory party, this from Boris Johnson at the Tory conference tonight:


    I look at Libya, it's an incredible country," he told the meeting.

    "Bone-white sands, beautiful sea, Caesar's Palace, obviously, you know, the real one.

    "Incredible place. It's got a real potential and brilliant young people who want to do all sorts of tech.

    "There's a group of UK business people, actually, some wonderful guys who want to invest in Sirte on the coast, near where Gaddafi was captured and executed as some of you may have seen.

    "They have got a brilliant vision to turn Sirte into the next Dubai.

    "The only thing they have got to do is clear the dead bodies away," he said, before laughing.

    BBC


  • #4077
    steddyeddy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,565 ✭✭✭✭steddyeddy


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    Lest there be any lingering doubt as to the true nature of the Little Englander mentality of the Tory party, this from Boris Johnson at the Tory conference tonight:


    I look at Libya, it's an incredible country," he told the meeting.

    "Bone-white sands, beautiful sea, Caesar's Palace, obviously, you know, the real one.

    "Incredible place. It's got a real potential and brilliant young people who want to do all sorts of tech.

    "There's a group of UK business people, actually, some wonderful guys who want to invest in Sirte on the coast, near where Gaddafi was captured and executed as some of you may have seen.

    "They have got a brilliant vision to turn Sirte into the next Dubai.

    "The only thing they have got to do is clear the dead bodies away," he said, before laughing.

    BBC

    The Tory government hired this man to represent the UK in other countries. That tells me everything I need to know anout how they'll handle Brexit. Complete idiots.


  • #4078
    Jim2007
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,891 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_hard_borders_of_the_mind_brexit_northern_ireland_and_the_7273

    This is just an option piece - I'm still waiting for someone to point to an actual clause in the agreement which states that the border can not be controlled and I suspect I'll be waiting along time because it just is not there.


  • #4079
    jm08
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,338 ✭✭✭✭jm08


    The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »
    'Magical thinking' is the technical term you are looking for here.

    No. A border in the Irish sea is the only workable solution. If Brexit goes ahead of course.

    They were happy to go along with an Irish sea border in 1996 when it suited:
    A CROSS-PARTY delegation of Northern Ireland MPs and the president of the Ulster Farmers' Union will meet the British Prime Minister, Mr Major, today to appeal for special status for Northern Ireland in the BSE crisis.
    At the same time, the SDLP leader, Mr John Hume, his fellow MEP, the Ulster Unionist Mr Jim Nicholson and the deputy president of the UFU, Mr Walter Elliott, will meet the EU Commissioner for Agriculture, Mr Franz Fischler in Strasbourg.


    "Basically we will be saying to the Prime Minister that given - that there is a willingness in Europe to look at Northern Ireland sympathetically and separately, then the UK government should not be holding us back," said Mr Wesley Aston, director of commodities for the farming union.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/major-faces-pressure-on-north-s-bse-status-1.87727


  • #4080
    blanch152
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,967 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    You want republicans to appease the DUP on rights, and you don't agree with a sea border. The only problem with which is unionist pride.

    Is there anything untrue there? In these instances that is how I perceive your argument.


    Yes, there is plenty of wrong there. Ascribing "unionist pride" to my arguments is a cop-out and a way to escape debating the merit of the points raised.

    I am not going to go off-topic on the rights issue but Varadkar nailed it in the Dail this week.

    On the sea border issue, the economic facts were presented in the other thread and exposed the problems with the idea, apart all together that imposing such a border without letting the people of Northern Ireland vote on it would be a breach of the GFA.


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  • #4081
    jm08
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,338 ✭✭✭✭jm08


    blanch152 wrote: »
    No, it wasn't, it was clearly established the opposite is the case. The export statistics quoted in this thread don't include internal trade within the UK.

    Northern Ireland is dependent on mainland UK economically, it could not survive outside of that dependency.

    You are assuming that the UK economy will continue to be strong. What will actually happen is that with the UK losing access to the single market, NI will be unable to compete with GB in the UK internal market. Infact, NI would probably be protected in the EU from steel dumping now that the UK won't be there to block the increase in tariffs.
    Anyway, my views or yours don't matter, the GFA is absolutely clear on one point, the status of Northern Ireland is a matter for the people of Northern Ireland to decide, not for the European Parliament, not for the Irish Government, and certainly not for some internet posters to decide. And I certainly don't see them deciding for an Irish Sea border, do you?

    Didn't the people of NI vote to remain in the EU?
    Neither are we going to see a 500km wall, as some of the scaremongers are suggesting. What we will see is technology, number plate recognition, cameras, etc.

    How will cameras and drones operate at night on the backroads on the border?


This discussion has been closed.
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