Brexit discussion thread II

Jim2007 · 30-09-2017 08:31AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Labour would seek to remain in the Single Market, a much easier thing to negotiate. The solution is to get the Tories out.

How is it easier to negotiate to stay in the single market? The market requires acceptance of the four principles and is treaty bound. There is no provision for a non member to have full access on any other terms. And what would be the motivation for the EU to do for one third country only to have others to demand the same. I expect the EU response will be - reapply for EU membership accept all the terms and hope none of the 27 object or apply for EFTA/EEA membership and hope that Norway does not veto it.

The EU have said that there never will be another Swiss deal because it is too complex to administer on a daily basis. Next year new negotiations will take place and the expected outcome is that Switzerland will accept that EU directives will automatically become law as is the case with member states and in return the Swiss will gain full market access for financial services.

The only motivation for the EU in doing the original deal and continuing it is that Switzerland controls all the major north-south routes of EU and any friction there can have major implications for industry.

Jim2007 · 30-09-2017 08:48AM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Also UK visitors to here drop, presumably because of sterling but overall visitor numbers are up. I'd see that as a sign that the UK is falling behind , already.

What surprised me here is the attitude to the U.K. as a travel destination - it has become negative due to all the reporting of racist attacks. It used to be the tradion that final year students in the local school used to go to the U.K. for two weeks to improve their English, but this year there have been so many objections from parents that it has been decided to find a new destination in Ireland!

solodeogloria · 30-09-2017 09:39AM

Jim2007 wrote: »

What surprised me here is the attitude to the U.K. as a travel destination - it has become negative due to all the reporting of racist attacks. It used to be the tradion that final year students in the local school used to go to the U.K. for two weeks to improve their English, but this year there have been so many objections from parents that it has been decided to find a new destination in Ireland!

Good morning!

This is utter nonsense.

Visits to the UK increased massively last year. Judging from the amount of French, German and Dutch visitors I saw along the south coast in the summer I don't think people are dissuaded from coming.

This thread is starting to become an echo chamber for borderline Anglophobia.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Samaris · 30-09-2017 09:54AM

Actually, you're both right to some extent. According to this year's tourism rates (2017, so not a whole year yet), students specifically (EFL, for instance) are down 8% and up 10% for Ireland, but overall visiting tourism continues to lurk upwards, encouraged by a low sterling (quote - "For every 1% decrease in the cost of visiting the UK, the UK’s inbound tourism earnings increase by 1.3%" - bottom of page 4)

Where a problem almost certainly will arise, according to that same stats sheet is that tourism is increasing, it is the UK's third-largest sector and is responsible as a sector for 9.15% of the UK's employment -but- there is a major issue approaching with the need for EU workers with the right soft-skills. So until March 2019, under current restrictions, planned restrictions and other confusion, may be as good as it gets.

http://www.tourismalliance.com/downloads/TA_395_420.pdf

Enzokk · 30-09-2017 10:09AM

solodeogloria wrote: »

This is utter nonsense.

Visits to the UK increased massively last year. Judging from the amount of French, German and Dutch visitors I saw along the south coast in the summer I don't think people are dissuaded from coming.

This thread is starting to become an echo chamber for borderline Anglophobia.

Any thoughts on the news that the EU accounts for a little more than half of UK exports when you discount gold from the figures? Does that sway your opinion in any way?

murphaph · 30-09-2017 10:10AM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

This is utter nonsense.

Visits to the UK increased massively last year. Judging from the amount of French, German and Dutch visitors I saw along the south coast in the summer I don't think people are dissuaded from coming.

This thread is starting to become an echo chamber for borderline Anglophobia.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Only a couple of the regular posters here would be what I would clearly identify as republicans who basically never did have any soft spot for England. But most I dare say would be like me who previously thought we could get on well with our nearest neighbour and bury the past where it belongs.

The UK has pulled the rug out from all that. I am now quite distrustful of the UK as a neighbour and make no bones about that.

You clearly love the place to bits. That's your prerogative. I would now rather focus on improving our partnerships in the European Union. The UK did not consider Ireland for a sodding nanosecond before pressing the button. It should not surprise you that there is some animosity towards the UK over Brexit.

Panrich · 30-09-2017 10:19AM

Nody wrote: »

Boris "I can't stop myself from acting as a spoiled child and lie" Johnson has stated his 4 red lines in the Sun making possibly another push for Tory leadership or simply trying to reinforce his cards for the next government:
The problem of course is point 2 makes point 1 impossible but since this is Boris "I eat cake and have it" Johnson who likes to repeat known lies (such as the 350 million to EU etc.) that's not to be unexpected; Boris never expects to actually be held accountable after all. Rather his job is to be the plucky spirit of Brexiteers in the government and hoping his pitch will keep him in the good graces of the powers to be to get another cabinet role once May is out.

I think history will judge Johnson very harshly and rightly so. The British public have been sold a pup and his latest rants are getting more desperate by the day. As you say, some of those 4 points are contradictory and are are almost infantile in their niaivity.

Samaris · 30-09-2017 10:20AM

I'm fond of England, I think her current government is disgraceful, ignorant, foolish, short-sighted, utterly disrespectful of their neighbours and incompetent.

Like any other country, they have a certain following amongst the population who are exactly that too (and no, that is not all leave-voters, just the ones that actually match that description). Unfortunately, those are the loudest and the side that the world is seeing to represent the country, and that will take some healing (much like the world view of the United States is the Trumpist party and the parts of their base that match them).

Both the UK and the US have taken a sledgehammer to their reputations, which is a shame that will take some time to move away from once both countries start acting like grown ups again. (Whatever they actually decide to do, their manner in doing it needs some maturity, both US and UK.)

Also, what in god's name is Johnson playing at and why has he not yet been fired from a cannon? Boris Johnson has less chance of the PMship than a pig has of competing in the Olympic iceskating. He's just embarrassing his country by now.

murphaph · 30-09-2017 10:33AM

Samaris wrote: »

I'm fond of England, I think her current government is disgraceful, ignorant, foolish, short-sighted, utterly disrespectful of their neighbours and incompetent.

Like any other country, they have a certain following amongst the population who are exactly that too (and no, that is not all leave-voters, just the ones that actually match that description). Unfortunately, those are the loudest and the side that the world is seeing to represent the country, and that will take some healing (much like the world view of the United States is the Trumpist party and the parts of their base that match them).

Both the UK and the US have taken a sledgehammer to their reputations, which is a shame that will take some time to move away from once both countries start acting like grown ups again. (Whatever they actually decide to do, their manner in doing it needs some maturity, both US and UK.)

Also, what in god's name is Johnson playing at and why has he not yet been fired from a cannon? Boris Johnson has less chance of the PMship than a pig has of competing in the Olympic iceskating. He's just embarrassing his country by now.

Johnson is trying to get fired so he can heckle from the backbenches rather than be in the frontline as Brexit implodes. He knows he can't square these circles. He wants somebody else holding the baby when it all goes pear shaped.

Enzokk · 30-09-2017 10:38AM

murphaph wrote: »

Johnson is trying to get fired so he can heckle from the backbenches rather than be in the frontline as Brexit implodes. He knows he can't square these circles. He wants somebody else holding the baby when it all goes pear shaped.

His ability to cause chaos is impressive. He is breaking all the rules he can to get fired now, but Theresa May wouldn't want him to miss the Brexit party. So either she breaks the rules and ignore his indiscretions and allow him to share the Brexit outcome, or she gives him what he wants. It is now a car crash inside a car crash.

Samaris · 30-09-2017 10:51AM

If that's the case (and yeah, it about matches what's been going on), all I can say is "oh dear god will they all grow the hell up"

solodeogloria · 30-09-2017 11:01AM

murphaph wrote: »

Only a couple of the regular posters here would be what I would clearly identify as republicans who basically never did have any soft spot for England. But most I dare say would be like me who previously thought we could get on well with our nearest neighbour and bury the past where it belongs.

The UK has pulled the rug out from all that. I am now quite distrustful of the UK as a neighbour and make no bones about that.

You clearly love the place to bits. That's your prerogative. I would now rather focus on improving our partnerships in the European Union. The UK did not consider Ireland for a sodding nanosecond before pressing the button. It should not surprise you that there is some animosity towards the UK over Brexit.

Good morning!

I don't agree that the peace process is predicated on the EU. I think this is manipulative.

Of course I love the UK to bits. Many of the people I care about the most live here. I don't have massive national sentiment to anything. I think it's a great country to live in and it's a place with great opportunity. Despite the tosh from Jim2007 implying that it is heaving with racists I've seen very little evidence of this in practice.

The UK has made a decision in respect to leaving a bloc that wasn't working for it. There's no reason for animosity. People just need to grow up and accept the self-determination of others. That's what this is essentially about. Regaining control at a national level.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Samaris · 30-09-2017 11:06AM

Don't the self-determiners have to grow up and accept that when their decisions affect others, said others get a say, especially when it comes to negotiating the exit from a co-operative bloc?

The British are not the only ones affected by Brexit and full half of their issues in negotiating is that they cannot seem to accept this. The UK is not the only thing that matters in all this.

To listen to the negotiators and their supporters, you'd think it was up to Britain to choose from a menu rather than discuss and negotiate with other countries how to split the food. No, it's not all about the UK, and it's about time the UK accepted that.

Water John · 30-09-2017 11:10AM

For all Boris watchers, a docu on Channel 4 tomorrow night.
Boris starts reciting Kypling in a Buddist Temple in Myanmar. Ambassador has to stop the fool.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/30/boris-johnson-caught-on-camera-reciting-kipling-in-myanmar-temple

This should be priceless. Hopes it sinks him.

Gerry T · 30-09-2017 11:26AM

But it was working for it, and the UK can't have full control if it makes trade deals. It prob has as much control as it's ever going to have

LeinsterDub · 30-09-2017 12:53PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

I don't agree that the peace process is predicated on the EU. I think this is manipulative.

Do you honestly think nationalist can trust the UK government or courts. They couldn't trust them up to the 70s for sure. The EU has delivered more rights and protections to the minority in the north than the UK courts ever did. As for the government they signed an international agreement to be a honest broker but now depend on the DUP for power.

steddyeddy · 30-09-2017 02:00PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Do you honestly think nationalist can trust the UK government or courts. They couldn't trust them up to the 70s for sure. The EU has delivered more rights and protections to the minority in the north than the UK courts ever did. As for the government they signed an international agreement to be a honest broker but now depend on the DUP for power.

The Tory party showed their true colors in relation to the peace process when they aligned with the DUP. In May's own words she said she'll never be neutral in relation to Northern Ireland. In other words not respectful of a shared future in Northern Ireland or the Good Friday agreement. We also seen Boris sing a offensive colonial song in a Buddhist temple.

The Tory party are basically little Englanders.

Jim2007 · 30-09-2017 02:02PM

Samaris wrote: »

Don't the self-determiners have to grow up and accept that when their decisions affect others, said others get a say, especially when it comes to negotiating the exit from a co-operative bloc?

That is thing, we keep hearing about how we have to accept their decision to leave, only to hear in the next breath how we must give them some special conditions before they leave... they need to accept their own decision and get on with it.

I suspect that until it actually starts to happen, there will be little movement on the U.K. side. The first little ripple will be felt towards the end of March next year when UK citizens no longer qualify for the 12 month renewable work/resident permits in EEA/CH states, that will be followed by the open skies issues in October, then on the run up there will be travel issues - airline and ferries can't accept bookings to land passengers in the Schengen Area if they don't have visa free travel rights or hold the required visa.

And discussions on this stuff has not kicked off yet. I just wonder how long it will be allowed to continue and who will be the one to bring back the bad news.

steddyeddy · 30-09-2017 02:03PM

Water John wrote: »

For all Boris watchers, a docu on Channel 4 tomorrow night.
Boris starts reciting Kypling in a Buddist Temple in Myanmar. Ambassador has to stop the fool.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/30/boris-johnson-caught-on-camera-reciting-kipling-in-myanmar-temple

This should be priceless. Hopes it sinks him.

He was accurately described as a man educated beyond his intelligence and a spoiled child. It won't sink him. The Tory voters probrably have the same delusions of what the empire was like.

Capt'n Midnight · 30-09-2017 02:32PM

Samaris wrote: »

Actually, you're both right to some extent. According to this year's tourism rates (2017, so not a whole year yet), students specifically (EFL, for instance) are down 8% and up 10% for Ireland, but overall visiting tourism continues to lurk upwards, encouraged by a low sterling (quote - "For every 1% decrease in the cost of visiting the UK, the UK’s inbound tourism earnings increase by 1.3%" - bottom of page 4)

It should be noted that excluding the UK our tourist numbers jumped quite a bit.

The UK is under performing , even with the huge drop in Sterling.

ArthurDayne · 30-09-2017 02:32PM

Enzokk wrote: »

His ability to cause chaos is impressive. He is breaking all the rules he can to get fired now, but Theresa May wouldn't want him to miss the Brexit party. So either she breaks the rules and ignore his indiscretions and allow him to share the Brexit outcome, or she gives him what he wants. It is now a car crash inside a car crash.

His indiscretions are part of a recurring Tory habit in recent years toward which the British people have shown remarkable patience; party in-fighting being allowed to materially dictate the course of the nation's future. The Brexit referendum was ill-thought and poorly planned, which was precisely because it was only ever meant to be a device to placate / silence the Eurosceptics and settle the Tory identity crisis for another generation. Once it backfired, the in-fighting began again with Cameron huffing off in resignation, the backstabbing of Boris by Gove, who was then himself stabbed in the front by the Tory cabinet before eventually reconciling.

Even now with Brexit, the product of their in-fighting, they face internal discord over what Brexit actually means. Their latest internal conflicts have rendered the whole issue even more confusing than it was before the referendum (ah yes, those heady days of 'activating Article 50 the next day' and 'nothing could be easier') and now one man's Brexit is another man's betrayal.

The question is, how long will it take the British electorate to wake up to the reality that their interests, livelihoods and the very future of the nation itself are constantly being tossed around and clawed at by a pack of bickering Oxbridge graduates? I seem to recall a time when voting Leave was claimed to be vote against the establishment -- rather than a free pass for the elite to treat the UK as some sort of private commodity of their own, to be shaped to their own nostalgic liking.

Indeed, all governments have in-fighting which affects their integrity and efficacy. But the Tories have willfully allowed their conflict to spill over across the nation, affect its constitutional status, toss its economy to the wind with no plan and above all treat the British people as complete and utter fools.

One wonders if a different Labour leader would have been more vocal in wiping the floor with the Tories for all of the above . . .

murphaph · 30-09-2017 04:32PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good morning!

I don't agree that the peace process is predicated on the EU. I think this is manipulative.

Of course I love the UK to bits. Many of the people I care about the most live here. I don't have massive national sentiment to anything. I think it's a great country to live in and it's a place with great opportunity. Despite the tosh from Jim2007 implying that it is heaving with racists I've seen very little evidence of this in practice.

The UK has made a decision in respect to leaving a bloc that wasn't working for it. There's no reason for animosity. People just need to grow up and accept the self-determination of others. That's what this is essentially about. Regaining control at a national level.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

I don't believe you that you don't have a British nationalist streak running through you. You are vehemently opposed to the Irish customs border being pushed back to the Irish sea, even if it might work as a practical solution. Why are you opposed to this "imaginative" solution other than on a point of principle?

You expect the EU to respect the UK's red lines but say the EU is stubborn and inflexible when it does the same. You can't have it both ways.

The UK is completely free to just walk away from the EU tomorrow. It's not the EU that is requesting the UK's presence at the negotiations! A50 has a hard deadline which mostly affects the UK.

solodeogloria · 30-09-2017 05:17PM

murphaph wrote: »

I don't believe you that you don't have a British nationalist streak running through you. You are vehemently opposed to the Irish customs border being pushed back to the Irish sea, even if it might work as a practical solution. Why are you opposed to this "imaginative" solution other than on a point of principle?

You expect the EU to respect the UK's red lines but say the EU is stubborn and inflexible when it does the same. You can't have it both ways.

The UK is completely free to just walk away from the EU tomorrow. It's not the EU that is requesting the UK's presence at the negotiations! A50 has a hard deadline which mostly affects the UK.

Good evening!

I'm afraid if you're looking for a British nationalist streak, it'd be hard to find. I've only got Irish citizenship :pac:

But look, if you want to call me a West Brit for the intent of this discussion by all means, I couldn't care less.

A border between one part of the United Kingdom (Northern Ireland) and the rest of the United Kingdom isn't workable. Particularly given that the majority of Northern Ireland's trade is with the rest of the UK.

This is why we need to see compromise from both parties to resolve it. I suspect we'll end up with a Norway - Sweden customs model with a designated number of crossing points for lorries post-transition.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Water John · 30-09-2017 05:19PM

Back to what we had for a long time, a porous border, in reality. Lot of lads back in business.

The Rape of Lucretia · 30-09-2017 05:54PM

Water John wrote: »

Back to what we had for a long time, a porous border, in reality. Lot of lads back in business.

'Lads' will be an insignificant drop in the ocean in that scenario. An acceptable price to pay possibly. If its only Eire-NI traffic nobody will really care. If it a gateway to the UK in volumes that affects economics, then it wont happen.
There just isnt a neat solution to this one. All options are variations of far-from-perfect.

swampgas · 30-09-2017 06:20PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

A border between one part of the United Kingdom (Northern Ireland) and the rest of the United Kingdom isn't workable. Particularly given that the majority of Northern Ireland's trade is with the rest of the UK.

Lots of things can be claimed to be unworkable. But there are degrees. Many would argue that an EU-UK border on the NI border is even more unworkable.

Bottom line - something's gotta give. Something pretty big, given the chasms that need to be bridged. The UK can't keep refusing to budge on all their so-called red lines and expect to make any progress with talks with the EU.

mickoneill31 · 30-09-2017 06:30PM

What happens if the NI border question isn't resolved before Brexit and the UK is unable to find a solution. Does it fall back to the EU (i.e. Ireland) to impose control over the border. We won't have much of a choice will we or am I missing something?

I'm under no illusions on who the UK (and some posters in this thread) will claim is to blame but I think that's just going to be par for the course for the next couple of decades. Anything bad that happens to the UK in the future will be the fault of the EU because the EU didn't bend over when the UK asked.

Beechwoodspark · 30-09-2017 06:31PM

solodeogloria wrote: »

Good evening!

I'm afraid if you're looking for a British nationalist streak, it'd be hard to find. I've only got Irish citizenship :pac:

But look, if you want to call me a West Brit for the intent of this discussion by all means, I couldn't care less.

A border between one part of the United Kingdom (Northern Ireland) and the rest of the United Kingdom isn't workable. Particularly given that the majority of Northern Ireland's trade is with the rest of the UK.

This is why we need to see compromise from both parties to resolve it. I suspect we'll end up with a Norway - Sweden customs model with a designated number of crossing points for lorries post-transition.

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

What rubbish.

A border between the north and the rest of the uk is the most practical solution to this mess caused by Brexit and yes, it would be workable.

There can be no return to a border on the island of Ireland. Simples.

Nate--IRL-- · 30-09-2017 06:33PM

mickoneill31 wrote: »

What happens if the NI border question isn't resolved before Brexit and the UK is unable to find a solution. Does it fall back to the EU (i.e. Ireland) to impose control over the border. We won't have much of a choice will we or am I missing something?

In that case there is no customs compatibility between the 2 entities - therefore a customs border is required.

Nate

Gerry T · 30-09-2017 06:33PM

mickoneill31 wrote:

What happens if the NI border question isn't resolved before Brexit and the UK is unable to find a solution. Does it fall back to the EU (i.e. Ireland) to impose control over the border. We won't have much of a choice will we or am I missing something?

I think IRL will have to set up border posts to protect EU. The UK will do like wise down the road.

Brexit discussion thread II

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