Brexit discussion thread II

ancapailldorcha · 27-09-2017 03:01PM

I've actually met Jeffrey Donaldson. Nice chap. I can't say that I envy his current predicament, mind. He's going to have a lot of trouble squaring this with the DUP's voters and that's before one factors in the fact that Northern Ireland voted remain.

Nody · 27-09-2017 03:57PM

No idea why May is so disappointed; with Brexit around the corner and Boris as foreign minister they will be able to negotiate great trade deals with other countries to sell the planes to; after all that's the plan for EU so why not US as well? Don't they have some faith in their own plan any more?

jm08 · 27-09-2017 05:17PM

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

The first cannon-fire in the great post-brexit USA/NIR trade-war?

Jeffrey Donaldson said if "that's the route America decides to choose, they need to remember that it's a big world, that they export a lot of their goods around the world and that American companies do a lot of business in the UK."
Mr Donaldson added that Boeing should "wind your neck in, remember that you need to do business around the world, that there's a big market, a global market that Boeing needs to sell aircraft into."

This is actually from rte though it reads like something from Waterford Whisperer.

Someone should have told Jeffrey that Boeing probably do a lot more business with the ROI (Ryanair & all those aircraft leasing companies).

Samaris · 27-09-2017 05:26PM

Nody wrote: »

No idea why May is so disappointed; with Brexit around the corner and Boris as foreign minister they will be able to negotiate great trade deals with other countries to sell the planes to; after all that's the plan for EU so why not US as well? Don't they have some faith in their own plan any more?

Like Madman Theory, some plans only work if you're the only one carrying out that plan.

steddyeddy · 27-09-2017 06:43PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I've actually met Jeffrey Donaldson. Nice chap. I can't say that I envy his current predicament, mind. He's going to have a lot of trouble squaring this with the DUP's voters and that's before one factors in the fact that Northern Ireland voted remain.

Well neither do I, but then again he led the charge for Brexit in the North. I'm sympathetic to those who will suffer, but not those who caused the mess.

ancapailldorcha · 27-09-2017 07:45PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Well neither do I, but then again he led the charge for Brexit in the North. I'm sympathetic to those who will suffer, but not those who caused the mess.

Oh, it's a bed of his own making. I'm not suggesting otherwise but I think the size of the role played by the DUP in bringing Brexit about was infinitesimal.

Junkyard Tom · 27-09-2017 07:49PM

Jeffrey Donaldson said if "that's the route America decides to choose, they need to remember that it's a big world, that they export a lot of their goods around the world and that American companies do a lot of business in the UK .... wind your neck in, remember that you need to do business around the world, that there's a big market, a global market that Boeing needs to sell aircraft into".

The level of delusion in those utterances is astonishing, he thinks he can threaten the world's largest aerospace firm backed by the world's largest economy with by-far the world's largest military? What are you going to threaten them with Jeffrey? A Lambeg drum and a few flute players?

Capt'n Midnight · 27-09-2017 08:08PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I've actually met Jeffrey Donaldson. Nice chap. I can't say that I envy his current predicament, mind. He's going to have a lot of trouble squaring this with the DUP's voters and that's before one factors in the fact that Northern Ireland voted remain.

There's also the squaring of the Billion Pounds that hasn't arrived yet and may not, and the Cash for Ash thing.

Yes the UK govt is reminding Boeing of how it spends with them, but the US govt spends a lot with BAE Systems. And the US govt throws insane amounts of money at Boeing.

They are part of ULA who got an $11 Billion rocket deal , even though SpaceX offer similar launches at less than a quarter of the price SpaceX use new American technology. ULA uses legacy tech from US, and former Soviet republics and then gets paid to develop new US tech to replace it.

Boeing are also the main contractor for SLS and get billions a year to re-invent rockets that were already flight proven on over a hundred Space Shuttle launches. Nice work if you can get it.

Junkyard Tom · 27-09-2017 08:11PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Well neither do I, but then again he led the charge for Brexit in the North. I'm sympathetic to those who will suffer, but not those who caused the mess.

I've come to the conclusion that the DUP are incapable of taking responsibility for anything, they will always have an external actor to blame.

It doesn't matter how bad it gets in the north the DUP will blame Boeing, the EU, Ireland for 'poaching investment', communists, gay people, a pan-nationalist conspiracy, the British government, pixies, whatever, they're irredeemable.

steddyeddy · 27-09-2017 08:44PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Oh, it's a bed of his own making. I'm not suggesting otherwise but I think the size of the role played by the DUP in bringing Brexit about was infinitesimal.

Well it certainly contributed to Brexit voters in NI voting for Brexit. I know hwat you mean though, the smaller regions in the UK were pulled out against their will.

steddyeddy · 27-09-2017 09:17PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I've come to the conclusion that the DUP are incapable of taking responsibility for anything, they will always have an external actor to blame.

It doesn't matter how bad it gets in the north the DUP will blame Boeing, the EU, Ireland for 'poaching investment', communists, gay people, a pan-nationalist conspiracy, the British government, pixies, whatever, they're irredeemable.

The North is given vast handouts to stay afloat. That's the reason this sort of politics survives. I can't see the North as an entity surviving Brexit though.

steddyeddy · 27-09-2017 11:00PM

The UK defense secretary threatens boeing with the loss of military contracts.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-41397181

The government has warned aircraft manufacturer Boeing it could lose UK defence contracts over its part in a US decision to slap punitive tariffs of 219% on rival Bombardier, in a dispute that threatens to sour trade relations between London and Washington.

Theresa May said she was “bitterly disappointed” by the move to impose a tariff on sales of Bombardier’s C-Series passenger jet, which threatens at least 1,000 manufacturing jobs in Northern Ireland.

Michael Fallon, the UK defence secretary, stepped up the government’s rhetoric, warning that Boeing’s assault on Bombardier “could jeopardise” its chances of securing government contracts.

The business secretary, Greg Clark, joined the chorus of disapproval, branding the ruling “unjustified” and vowing to work with Canada - where Bombardier is based - to get it overturned.

Capt'n Midnight · 27-09-2017 11:14PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

The UK defense secretary threatens boeing with the loss of military contracts.

Boeing have a large supply chain in the UK so it'll be interesting to see how the UK handles this. Will NI get thrown under the bus if push comes to shove ? Or will this be made go away by backroom deals and contracts by Canada and/or UK for more Boeing kit ?

Either way it'll be a good test of how well the UK and DUP do in the new world.

http://www.boeing.co.uk/boeing-in-the-uk/value.page

Since 2011 Boeing's spending with UK suppliers has tripled, supporting an estimated 16,500 jobs in the UK supply chain, a rise of 80%. In 2016 Boeing spent £2.1 billion with UK suppliers, up from £744m in 2011.

28-09-2017 12:46AM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Boeing have a large supply chain in the UK so it'll be interesting to see how the UK handles this. Will NI get thrown under the bus if push comes to shove ? Or will this be made go away by backroom deals and contracts by Canada and/or UK for more Boeing kit ?

Either way it'll be a good test of how well the UK and DUP do in the new world.

http://www.boeing.co.uk/boeing-in-the-uk/value.page

Id imagine May will have to fight Washington tooth and nail here because the only thing propping up her government is the DUP and the DUP will certainly keep the heat on her to do so or else 1000 jobs are lost in their own backyard.

Zubeneschamali · 28-09-2017 07:51AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Id imagine May will have to fight Washington tooth and nail here

Do you imagine anyone in Washington will notice?

murphaph · 28-09-2017 08:11AM

This is an interesting precursor for the UK of what it's like as a mid sized economy to deal with the protectionist administration under Trump.

The US never tried this on with Airbus because the EU can retaliate in kind and massively damage US aerospace industries. The Canadian market is tiny in comparison.

The UK will be fighting such battles on its own post Brexit. Best of luck with that.

Junkyard Tom · 28-09-2017 08:22AM

murphaph wrote: »

The US never tried this on with Airbus.

They did. There's a good thread on Twitter here explaining how the EU acts as a counterbalance to the US on such matters and how an 'independent' Britain might fare on its own. Here are the first two posts:

People saying #Bombardier is a warning about life after #Brexit: you are right. Let me explain. /1

What’s my qualification? In 1993-4 I was in the UK’s DTI covering the long-running GATT dispute between the EU & US over Airbus v Boeing. /2

Enzokk · 28-09-2017 08:43AM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

They did. There's a good thread on Twitter here explaining how the EU acts as a counterbalance to the US on such matters and how an 'independent' Britain might fare on its own. Here are the first two posts:

People saying #Bombardier is a warning about life after #Brexit: you are right. Let me explain. /1

What’s my qualification? In 1993-4 I was in the UK’s DTI covering the long-running GATT dispute between the EU & US over Airbus v Boeing. /2

And that dispute is still ongoing between the EU and US over Boeing and Airbus. It seems a little like MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) where the two blocks are keeping each other in check, but smaller nations not affiliated to one of the two could be swept aside. The UK decided its a good idea to go at it alone. For that I blame the politicians still going ahead with A50, they should know it will hurt the UK more if they plunge ahead...but democratic vote based on lies trumps common sense I believe.

Samaris · 28-09-2017 11:07AM

Thanks for the twitter link, that was very well explained.

Another point that was brought up is that this is such an awful time to make this decision, and in a very rushed way. I saw someone...not sure if it was in this thread or elsewhere that, when someone brought up how quickly Article 50 was invoked, complained that nine months was far too long. And I think that level of ..well..plain ignorance is the most dangerous part of all of this.

Very few people understand all the complexities. Tbh, I'd say nobody actually understands all the complexities of this. It ranges from individual exports and imports to how to keep chemotherapy going to nuclear plants to figuring out the wild card market that is currently the US, to how Britain will feed itself to impacts on Sterling and every other damn thing too. And this while the world is coming out of a recession and economies are still a bit fragile.

Of all the plans that absolutely could not be rushed, Brexit is one of them. And it has been rushed, experts are sidelined and apparently the whole thing is running on pipedreams and wild guesses as the negotiators try to please their own country (who have been told ridiculous lies to the point where they cannot believe the reality of the situation) and come up with something the EU will accept (although they don't seem to be trying very hard there), while the Foreign Sec. is apparently trying to undermine the PM (for a leadership run? God knows).

And this, by the way, was pretty much where I was going when I commented that other countries do not have to deal with a free-roaming Britain with the same cautious politeness that they deal with the EU bloc as a whole, because Britain needs these deals a hell of a lot more than other states do. Trump's being short-sighted as well, ofc, but that was to be expected.

Water John · 28-09-2017 01:02PM

Will history treat Cameron, Farage et al, with the odium they deserve?

28-09-2017 01:02PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Do you imagine anyone in Washington will notice?

All the same if she does nothing or is seen to do nothing then the Tory government is goosed.

If America had to go to war somewhere tomorrow though I would reckon they need Britain more than they think

Zubeneschamali · 28-09-2017 01:51PM

Water John wrote: »

Will history treat Cameron, Farage et al, with the odium they deserve?

No.

More odium than they are getting now, yes, but the i think the refusal by Brexiteers to admit that they have shot themselves in the foot will persist.

The history books in the UK will be all "some people say" that the depression of the 2020s could have been avoided etc.

Zubeneschamali · 28-09-2017 01:59PM

Deleted User wrote: »

All the same if she does nothing or is seen to do nothing then the Tory government is goosed.

Yes, this is the reason for all of May's actions. Brexit, trade - none of it is being done to achieve any goal except to stay leader of a Tory-led government for as long as possible.

And when it all comes crashing down, she will walk away singing to herself like David Cameron did.

The good of the nation? Who cares?

Water John · 28-09-2017 06:04PM

Was always of the opinion that one of the reasons for obfuscations was to hope for division to open within EU.

'With efforts to open a second front in other European capitals running into the sand': Guardian referring to Davis touring the EU capitals.

This would be classic UK negotiating strategy, from the imperialist playbook.

steddyeddy · 28-09-2017 11:50PM

The EU parliament is suggesting that the border be placed in the Irish sea. This would mean that NI remain in the single market. Great for the North, bad for unionists as it will be "different " to the main land.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-border-guy-verhofstadt-single-market-customs-union-european-parliament-a7972596.html

GalwayMark · 28-09-2017 11:57PM

I'd say the brexit campaign was funded by autocratic gulf monarchies and russian oligarchs who may have feared Brussels clamping down on their illicit wealth or that as most people said their is a mental illness known as 'Imperial Delusion Syndrome'.

29-09-2017 12:25AM

steddyeddy wrote: »

The EU parliament is suggesting that the border be placed in the Irish sea. This would mean that NI remain in the single market. Great for the North, bad for unionists as it will be "different " to the main land.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-border-guy-verhofstadt-single-market-customs-union-european-parliament-a7972596.html

Majority of NI's goods go to Britain I think. How would that be handled I wonder?

Professor Moriarty · 29-09-2017 12:31AM

steddyeddy wrote: »

The EU parliament is suggesting that the border be placed in the Irish sea. This would mean that NI remain in the single market. Great for the North, bad for unionists as it will be "different " to the main land.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-border-guy-verhofstadt-single-market-customs-union-european-parliament-a7972596.html

Given that Britain wants to quickly move on to trade talks whereas the EU is in no hurry and wants to agree citizen's rights, the bill and the border first, it would seem that, ironically, the EU is using Ireland as a bargaining chip. A trump card that Britain had planned to play. The phrase 'hoisted by your own petard' springs to mind.

jm08 · 29-09-2017 12:54AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Majority of NI's goods go to Britain I think. How would that be handled I wonder?

Something I came across from Policy Exchange (Tory think tank that Ray Basset is involved in) in a document on Brixit & Agric.

Northern Irish farms stand to face worse effects from customs controls since 65 per cent of the country’s agricultural exports go to Ireland, while less than 5 percent of Ireland’s agricultural exports are sent to the North.

The highest WTO trade tariffs are on food, particularly on dairy (about 30-40%) - then you have the EU food regs and standards. No wonder NI farmers want a 5 year transition!

Policy Exchange thinks that Brexit is a great opportunity for the UK to save the environment by basically forgetting about farming and growing more trees!

https://policyexchange.org.uk/publication/farming-tomorrow/

Enzokk · 29-09-2017 07:59AM

We need to talk about that bus. You know how the lie was used that leaving the EU would help the NHS? Seems that Lancet has done a review and they suggest, even in a soft Brexit that there will be negative consequences for the NHS. In case of anything but a soft Brexit the consequences could be catastrophic.

Brexit 'potentially catastrophic' for the health service, experts suggest in Lancet journal

Here are some of the quotes from the article,

Assessing three scenarios – “soft Brexit, hard Brexit, and failed Brexit” – the authors conclude in the Lancet medical journal that each poses a substantial threat to the NHS.

Even a so-called soft Brexit that retains access to the EU’s single market while restricting free movement is likely to have a big impact on health care, they claim.

“The workforce of the NHS is heavily reliant on EU staff,” the authors write. “Financing of health care for UK citizens in the EU and visa versa is threatened, as is access to some capital funds, while Brexit threatens overall economic performance. Access to pharmaceuticals, technology, blood and organs is jeopardised.” ...

...”The EU has shown that it recognises many of these threats, and we hope that our paper encourages the UK negotiating team to make health issues a priority.”

So the issue that swayed some voters to leave the EU, so they can fund the NHS, could be the death knell to the NHS. You have to wonder what concessions the EU could get to ensure the NHS doesn't suffer with Brexit. Do the government really want to give the EU concessions when it comes to the NHS?

And how will this effect the deal with NI and Ireland? There seems to be some very good cooperation regarding patient care between the NI and Ireland but what will it mean in future if there are barriers in place? Where will children from Northern Ireland go that at the moment go to Crumlin for surgery? Is this what the DUP intended? Who in their right mind voted for Brexit? And who, after seeing all the negative impacts that Brexit will have still thinks its the way to go?

I can still sort if understand that some people are so hard headed that they don't want to admit that they are wrong, but people are putting the future of the NHS in the hands of the government of the day. Are those Labour voters that voted to leave the EU really contented that the Tories will have the reins on the NHS when it comes to crucial decisions in the next 5 years?

No free healthcare in Ireland after leaving EU, UK visitors warned

Health officials in the Republic have already referred to shared care which exists between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

Patients from Donegal have radiotherapy in Derry and children with congenital heart disease from Northern Ireland have their surgery in Our Lady's Hospital, Crumlin.

Brexit discussion thread II

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