Irish Border and Brexit

View · 26-09-2017 10:42AM

jm08 wrote: »

blanch152 wrote: »

I still think a soft Brexit under Labour is the most likely outcome.

The proponents of the silly sea border idea forget that it just isn't a runner in the UK domestically because the Scots would demand the exact same deal. Brexit isn't Brexit if only England leaves.

In Ireland we need to face up to the harsh reality of a customs border with the North. It isn't what we want but it is what we are going to get.

The reason why I think it won't be on the island of Ireland because it is impractable because of how porous it is and will cost billions to implement and maintain. I've heard an estimate for installation of infrastructure costing half a billion.

Based on the cost of a standard 2m border fence that Lithuania is currently building with Russia (Kaliningrad), the cost of a border with NI would be more like €150 million.

Were we to decide to join Schengen, we would have a good case for the cost of that to be partially covered by the EU as there is a “Schengen Border Fund” which is specifically there to help Schengen member states cover the cost of improving their border security with non-Schengen countries.

jm08 · 26-09-2017 11:10AM

View wrote: »

Based on the cost of a standard 2m border fence that Lithuania is currently building with Russia (Kaliningrad), the cost of a border with NI would be more like €150 million.

Were we to decide to join Schengen, we would have a good case for the cost of that to be partially covered by the EU as there is a “Schengen Border Fund” which is specifically there to help Schengen member states cover the cost of improving their border security with non-Schengen countries.

According to wiki on the Lithuania/Russian border and it only has 4 road crossings and 2 railway crossings.

Most of the border follows rivers or lakes. On land, border stations are equipped with engineering and technical facilities (wired fences and the exclusion zone). Most other land areas have no fence, but some places near roads or villages have fences (e.g. at 54°27′11″N 22°42′08″E with Street View coverage). Crossing the border into Lithuania requires a Schengen visa, and into Russia requires a Russian visa.

So, as well as the rivers and lakes, they are putting in a 2 metre fence. Have you had a look at what the border looks like between NI & ROI?

jm08 · 26-09-2017 11:12AM

First Up wrote: »

This is true but NI's economy isn't based on clandestine operations. Short Bros won't negotiate with Airbus based on prices that depend on smuggling components into the EU via a back road near Derrylin.

Some of the poorest parts of the UK are the border areas of NI who are dependent on agriculture. Something like 80% of NI farmer's income comes from EU CAP payments as well. The UK are going to have to pony up that.

blanch152 · 26-09-2017 11:30AM

jm08 wrote: »

It won't be a bit of smuggling from Slab Murphy's network though. It was a European network involved in the horsemeat scandal with meat originating in Romania and ending up in burgers in Louth.

With the UK intending to buy food from everywhere, that would make Ireland a very suspect country to buy food from and destroy our premium export food market (such as China for example - who wouldn't approve one Irish cheese brand because it was packaged in the UK).

Going back to the BSE when British beef was banned, despite the seriousness of the situation, this happened:

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/farmer-jailed-over-bse-scam-26054163.html

Fintan's views in Irish Times today:

Fintan O'Toole: The Tories have already betrayed the DUP
Despite their deal, the Conservatives are cutting the ground from under their ‘mates’

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-the-tories-have-already-betrayed-the-dup-1.3233355

Poor old Fintan is making the mistake in believing that a UK paper on Brexit is something other than wishful thinking.

As for the border, it is necessary once the poverty of the UK position is revealed. The EU won't tolerate back-door smuggling from the UK and it will end up being a hard border. Great for Slab and the Good Republicans (a great name for a parody folk band) but bad for the rest of us.

jm08 · 26-09-2017 12:00PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Poor old Fintan is making the mistake in believing that a UK paper on Brexit is something other than wishful thinking.

As for the border, it is necessary once the poverty of the UK position is revealed. The EU won't tolerate back-door smuggling from the UK and it will end up being a hard border. Great for Slab and the Good Republicans (a great name for a parody folk band) but bad for the rest of us.

I agree with you that the EU won't tolerate smuggling, but bearing in mind that your friend Slab's farm straddles the border, it might be a tad difficult to put a 2 metre fence through it (not that a 2 metre fence would be any use)! Quinn Cement might be back in business though in the construction of a Trumpesque wall (which is what will be required to secure the border).

Sam Russell · 26-09-2017 12:10PM

When the trade figures are calculated for RoI to NI and NI to GB, do they take account of the fact that, in the event of a Irish Sea border, that much of that trade would be diverted via Dublin, or actually sourced from Ireland?

For example, Halfords have branches north and south. The likelihood of such a border would be for companies like Halfords to amalgamate their operation into a single all-Ireland one, and therefor the trade would be recorded as RoI to NI, rather than GB to NI. This would be the case for similar operations like Tesco, M&S and other UK operations that have subsidiary outlets in both jurisdictions.

If there was significant tariffs applied for GB exports to NI/RoI , I would think these companies would begin to import from the EU rather than pay tariffs, changing the dynamic significantly.

blanch152 · 26-09-2017 01:27PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

When the trade figures are calculated for RoI to NI and NI to GB, do they take account of the fact that, in the event of a Irish Sea border, that much of that trade would be diverted via Dublin, or actually sourced from Ireland?

For example, Halfords have branches north and south. The likelihood of such a border would be for companies like Halfords to amalgamate their operation into a single all-Ireland one, and therefor the trade would be recorded as RoI to NI, rather than GB to NI. This would be the case for similar operations like Tesco, M&S and other UK operations that have subsidiary outlets in both jurisdictions.

If there was significant tariffs applied for GB exports to NI/RoI , I would think these companies would begin to import from the EU rather than pay tariffs, changing the dynamic significantly.

There is a huge implication for retail operations in Ireland post-Brexit, regardless of where the border is. Will the likes of Debenhams and M&S maintain operations in the South? Tesco, due to size, most probably will, but many others may not. M&S may become more food-based, like on the continent. Is Harvey Nichols making enough money out of Dundrum to justify staying post-tariffs?

View · 26-09-2017 01:35PM

jm08 wrote: »

View wrote: »

Based on the cost of a standard 2m border fence that Lithuania is currently building with Russia (Kaliningrad), the cost of a border with NI would be more like €150 million.

Were we to decide to join Schengen, we would have a good case for the cost of that to be partially covered by the EU as there is a “Schengen Border Fund” which is specifically there to help Schengen member states cover the cost of improving their border security with non-Schengen countries.

According to wiki on the Lithuania/Russian border and it only has 4 road crossings and 2 railway crossings.

Most of the border follows rivers or lakes. On land, border stations are equipped with engineering and technical facilities (wired fences and the exclusion zone). Most other land areas have no fence, but some places near roads or villages have fences (e.g. at 54°27′11″N 22°42′08″E with Street View coverage). Crossing the border into Lithuania requires a Schengen visa, and into Russia requires a Russian visa.

So, as well as the rivers and lakes, they are putting in a 2 metre fence. Have you had a look at what the border looks like between NI & ROI?

To address your points, Lithuania is putting in a border fence to replace their previous semi-open border with Russia, as that way, no one can claim they didn’t know where the border was when they “accidentally” wander across it.

Second the cost I quoted was based on calculating the cost/per kilometre of the (land based) border fence they are putting in and multiplying it by the length of the NI border.

Third, the amount of border crossings we want to have is up to us. We don’t build bridges and/or tunnels for every single boreen to cross a motorway when we build one, so it crazy to think we need to have one for every boreen along the border. Yes, that’s inconvenient but so too is not having crossing every 250 metres over and under a motorway.

And, lastly, yes I have crossed the NI border several times just as I have crossed the land borders of Switzerland & many other European countries both in pre- & post- Schengen days.

jm08 · 26-09-2017 02:05PM

View wrote: »

To address your points, Lithuania is putting in a border fence to replace their previous semi-open border with Russia, as that way, no one can claim they didn’t know where the border was when they “accidentally” wander across it.

So, its main function is to stop people wandering across. Do you know how many roads cross the border between NI & ROI? Do you plan on blocking most or all of them with your 2 metre fence? Lets not forget that the British Army couldn't stop movement between NI & ROI even when the road crossings were down to 18 (the rest of the roads having been cratered to stop access).

Second the cost I quoted was based on calculating the cost/per kilometre of the (land based) border fence they are putting in and multiplying it by the length of the NI border.

A 2 metre fence is laughable. It wouldn't last 10 minutes. You'd need a 2 metre wall minimum.

Third, the amount of border crossings we want to have is up to us. We don’t build bridges and/or tunnels for every single boreen to cross a motorway when we build one, so it crazy to think we need to have one for every boreen along the border. Yes, that’s inconvenient but so too is not having crossing every 250 metres over and under a motorway.

The 'bridges' and 'tunnels' are already built. Are you going blow them all up to stop people using them?

And, lastly, yes I have crossed the NI border several times just as I have crossed the land borders of Switzerland & many other European countries both in pre- & post- Schengen days.

There is some logic for the borders in Europe - with rivers, lakes, mountain ranges presenting natural boundaries. There is no logic to the NI border - just a line on a map.

knipex · 26-09-2017 03:25PM

jm08 wrote: »

There is some logic for the borders in Europe - with rivers, lakes, mountain ranges presenting natural boundaries. There is no logic to the NI border - just a line on a map.

All borders are essentially lines on maps.

The questions you need to answer is does a country value its independence and trade enough to protect those borders..

Sam Russell · 26-09-2017 03:37PM

blanch152 wrote: »

There is a huge implication for retail operations in Ireland post-Brexit, regardless of where the border is. Will the likes of Debenhams and M&S maintain operations in the South? Tesco, due to size, most probably will, but many others may not. M&S may become more food-based, like on the continent. Is Harvey Nichols making enough money out of Dundrum to justify staying post-tariffs?

But M&S import 100% of their produce from the UK. Can they continue if there are tariffs on food? They would have to set up a local procurement operation if they intend to source here and their business is too small to warrant it. Tesco already have local sourcing. Dundrum may be hit by #UK outfits leaving.

blanch152 · 26-09-2017 03:45PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

But M&S import 100% of their produce from the UK. Can they continue if there are tariffs on food? They would have to set up a local procurement operation if they intend to source here and their business is too small to warrant it. Tesco already have local sourcing. Dundrum may be hit by #UK outfits leaving.

The point I was making was that M&S have a Europe-wide operation, unlike say Halfords which is only in the UK and Ireland.

It is only a guessing game but I would expect Tesco to stay (large Irish operation), brands like Halfords to go (only in Ireland, market too small to adapt for Brexit) and the likes of M&S to be in-between, depending on what they do generally in Europe.

One of the most visible impacts of Brexit may well be changes in the retail landscape.

Sam Russell · 26-09-2017 03:51PM

blanch152 wrote: »

The point I was making was that M&S have a Europe-wide operation, unlike say Halfords which is only in the UK and Ireland.

It is only a guessing game but I would expect Tesco to stay (large Irish operation), brands like Halfords to go (only in Ireland, market too small to adapt for Brexit) and the likes of M&S to be in-between, depending on what they do generally in Europe.

One of the most visible impacts of Brexit may well be changes in the retail landscape.

The reason I picked Halfords is they have a very small toe in the Irish landscape and would find it difficult to justify a larger presence here, unless they could justify an all Ireland presence if the EU border was in the Irish sea. The likely tariffs for their product range would be low, compared to M&S food range, plus the restrictions on some food products (like chlorinated chicken).

jm08 · 26-09-2017 04:13PM

knipex wrote: »

All borders are essentially lines on maps.

The questions you need to answer is does a country value its independence and trade enough to protect those borders..

Lines on maps that follow natural features such as mountains & rivers.

Not sure what your point is about a country's values, but Northern Ireland did vote to remain in the EU.

jm08 · 26-09-2017 04:20PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

The reason I picked Halfords is they have a very small toe in the Irish landscape and would find it difficult to justify a larger presence here, unless they could justify an all Ireland presence if the EU border was in the Irish sea. The likely tariffs for their product range would be low, compared to M&S food range, plus the restrictions on some food products (like chlorinated chicken).

I think it will be more interesting to see what food companies do that have their central distribution based in the UK (some company like Lidl). Tesco sells a lot of Irish fresh food here, whereas M&S sell British produced fresh food. For clothes and stuff, I'd imagine they could ship them straight in from Turkey/China or where ever they are made.

Sam Russell · 26-09-2017 04:26PM

jm08 wrote: »

I think it will be more interesting to see what food companies do that have their central distribution based in the UK (some company like Lidl). Tesco sells a lot of Irish fresh food here, whereas M&S sell British produced fresh food. For clothes and stuff, I'd imagine they could ship them straight in from Turkey/China or where ever they are made.

Lidl and Aldi both have all-Ireland distribution. I would imagine they would ship into Ireland direct from EU sites.

First Up · 26-09-2017 04:32PM

Sam Russell wrote:

Lidl and Aldi both have all-Ireland distribution. I would imagine they would ship into Ireland direct from EU sites.

They are masters of logistics so I'm sure there plans are well advanced.

blanch152 · 26-09-2017 04:40PM

jm08 wrote: »

I think it will be more interesting to see what food companies do that have their central distribution based in the UK (some company like Lidl). Tesco sells a lot of Irish fresh food here, whereas M&S sell British produced fresh food. For clothes and stuff, I'd imagine they could ship them straight in from Turkey/China or where ever they are made.

For some of the companies, the logistics of separating shipping just for a small Irish market mightn't be worth it and they will pull out.

murphaph · 26-09-2017 05:36PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Lidl and Aldi both have all-Ireland distribution. I would imagine they would ship into Ireland direct from EU sites.

The assortment in Lidl and probably moreso Aldi in Ireland and the UK differs a fair bit from the assortment in say Germany.

I would expect fewer British products in Irish Aldis and fewer Irish and continental products in UK Aldis. The assortment in Irish stores will revert back to a more continental assortment perhaps over time seeing substituted Irish produced products to replace the delisted UK ones.

Junkyard Tom · 26-09-2017 05:41PM

It's starting.

Northern Ireland beef farmers have called for a five-year Brexit transition period, warning that the two-year plan outlined by Theresa May in Florence will just be a “stay of execution” for the industry.

Research funded by the body found that a cliff-edge departure from the EU would result in exports to Europe dropping 90% if the UK fell back to World Trade Organisation rules.

theguardian.com/politics

As far as I know a majority of farmers in the north voted for Brexit despite farming being generously subsidised by the EU. I'm presuming a lot of Farmers in the north are DUP supporters?

FrancieBrady · 26-09-2017 06:27PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

It's starting.

Northern Ireland beef farmers have called for a five-year Brexit transition period, warning that the two-year plan outlined by Theresa May in Florence will just be a “stay of execution” for the industry.

Research funded by the body found that a cliff-edge departure from the EU would result in exports to Europe dropping 90% if the UK fell back to World Trade Organisation rules.

theguardian.com/politics

As far as I know a majority of farmers in the north voted for Brexit despite farming being generously subsidised by the EU. I'm presuming a lot of Farmers in the north are DUP supporters?

They are about to find out the cost of blindly following a leader who only wanted to take the opposite position to SF for the sake of it. And then immediately started to row backwards.

breatheme · 26-09-2017 11:10PM

jm08 wrote: »

knipex wrote: »

All borders are essentially lines on maps.

The questions you need to answer is does a country value its independence and trade enough to protect those borders..

Lines on maps that follow natural features such as mountains & rivers.

Not sure what your point is about a country's values, but Northern Ireland did vote to remain in the EU.

*takes a look at the border between Canada and the US, which is basically a straight line*
*At the Chile-Argentina border*
And so on...
You lie. Let's move on. Yes, the border between NI and RoI is just a line, doesn't change the fact that depending on how the UK government carries out Brexit, it may have to be policed.
I don't think that the NI border issue won't come to ONE solution, and maybe NI (and the RoI???) should vote on it.

knipex · 27-09-2017 06:53AM

jm08 wrote: »

Lines on maps that follow natural features such as mountains & rivers.

Not sure what your point is about a country's values, but Northern Ireland did vote to remain in the EU.

I am not talking about Northern Ireland.

I am talking about the republic of Ireland.

Does it value its nationhood, its reputation and its trade enough to enforce and protect its borders.

The question is that simple..

Many posters are suggesting that we just ignore our borders, they aren't worth protecting and let what ever when ever pass over.

Not all borders follow natural features. hell even the Hong Kong China border has about 30 miles where it essentially is a lien in the middle of a field.

Belgium France, Hell Virtually the entire Belgian border with France, The Netherlands, Germany and Luxembourg.. Luxumburgs border with everyone.

Swiss \ Austria, Italy \ Slovenia.

Every nation on earth protects its borders but for some Reason Ireland is a special case (Again) and cannot do so..

Peregrinus · 27-09-2017 07:08AM

knipex wrote: »

I am not talking about Northern Ireland.

I am talking about the republic of Ireland.

Does it value its nationhood, its reputation and its trade enough to enforce and protect its borders.

The question is that simple . . .

Simple, but wrong.

Remember that, in Ireland, the dominant concept of "nationhood" would suggest that, far from enforcing and protecting the border with Northern Ireland, we should be looking to eliminate it as a border. As for trade, the current status of the border is clearly more in our trading interest than any harder border would be.

Basically, the partition of Ireland is Not A Good Thing. It never has been. It hasn't been good for either part of Ireland. The less obtrusive, assertive, effective it is, the better. Considerations of national identity, reputation and trading interests do not change this; they reinforce it.

murphaph · 27-09-2017 07:10AM

knipex wrote: »

I am not talking about Northern Ireland.

I am talking about the republic of Ireland.

Does it value its nationhood, its reputation and its trade enough to enforce and protect its borders.

The question is that simple..

Many posters are suggesting that we just ignore our borders, they aren't worth protecting and let what ever when ever pass over.

Not all borders follow natural features. hell even the Hong Kong China border has about 30 miles where it essentially is a lien in the middle of a field.

Belgium France, Hell Virtually the entire Belgian border with France, The Netherlands, Germany and Luxembourg.. Luxumburgs border with everyone.

Swiss \ Austria, Italy \ Slovenia.

Every nation on earth protects its borders but for some Reason Ireland is a special case (Again) and cannot do so..

If we did not have the integrity of the single market to uphold then I would be for a fudged solution but it won't wash with the EU and rightly so. We all rely on our external customs borders being properly policed to help keep our food supply safe. It's no joke. Ask the Chinese about fake food and the crap they've inadvertently fed to their babies down the years.

This takes absolute priority over any Irish nationalist stuff. It is hard to police an external customs border like that but it must be policed. It may mean closing roads to vehicular traffic and other unpalatable measures like it.

I fear that the cameras and whatnot will end up on our side of the border. It's that or leave the EU ourselves and that is not an option to me.

Peregrinus · 27-09-2017 07:18AM

Well, no, there are other options such as the UK agreeing to adhere to EU food safety standards in order to have unrestricted access to EU markets for UK produce. That could be part of a UK/EU trade deal, for instance.

I agree with you that the integrity of the single market, and the RoI's place within it, must be protected, but a hard border isn't necessarily the only way of doing that, unless the UK government rules out all other feasible options. And I won't despair on that front until I have to.

murphaph · 27-09-2017 07:26AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Well, no, there are other options such as the UK agreeing to adhere to EU food safety standards in order to have unrestricted access to EU markets for UK produce. That could be part of a UK/EU trade deal, for instance.

I agree with you that the integrity of the single market, and the RoI's place within it, must be protected, but a hard border isn't necessarily the only way of doing that, unless the UK government rules out all other feasible options. And I won't despair on that front until I have to.

Yeah I'm going on the assumption the UK crashes out altogether. Obviously there are other options if the UK is prepared to cede that precious sovereignty.

The best solution is the UK as a whole just stays in the SM and CU but we apparently need a general election for that.

demfad · 27-09-2017 09:54AM

The UK has chosen to move outside the EU external frontier
The single market is a defensive system which must be protected.
The UK has said it doesn't want a hard border which means the UK must request the EU not to police its border.
UK must devise a model for NI governance that allows the EU to refrain from policing its border.
If UK chooses to diverge from existing regulatory regime and allow imports at differing standards then EU border is compromised.
EU cannot make exceptions to its third country controls - they are uniform throughout, so it must police the border.
So if the border is to stay unpoliced UK need to agree to match regulatory regimes
UK must spell out how their outer controls and trade deals do not threaten EUs.
EU cannot be expected to re-engineer its third country controls for the sole benefit of UK or turn a blind eye to UK divergence.

The EU is actually limited in the models it can offer the UK in terms of a long term arrangement: Swiss, Norway, Turkey, Canada.

Lets look at some local Stats:

5,000+ NI businesses exported to Ireland (150% more than exported to GB). 51% of these businesses have fewer than 9 employees.
In terms of value - 80% of sales from NI to Ireland from businesses with fewer than 250 employees.
177k HGVs and 208k light vans cross the border every month
NI agri-food % sales to Ireland - 42% dairy processing, 37% sheep processing - 42% of NI’s sheep/lambs processed in Ireland
110m person border crossings each year - 15 main crossing points responsible for 43m recorded road vehicle crossings
2011 Census - 14,800 people commute for work/study. 2017 study - 270 Ireland pupils at NI secondary schools - 100 at primary school
47% of cars in border shopping areas Ireland registered - Ireland households responsible for c.1.6% of GVA for retail sector of NI

There is an awful lot riding on this 'seamless border'.
If UK crashes out the disruption to our economy and NIs will be massive.
ROI should start building infrastructure for hard border NOW to allow for some trade at least.

knipex · 27-09-2017 10:14AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Simple, but wrong.

Remember that, in Ireland, the dominant concept of "nationhood" would suggest that, far from enforcing and protecting the border with Northern Ireland, we should be looking to eliminate it as a border. As for trade, the current status of the border is clearly more in our trading interest than any harder border would be.

The current status of the border (barring a huge change in policy from the UK) is over..

Our trade with Northern Ireland is negligible in comparison with the rest of the world and the EU in particular.

Refusal to police those borders would make us a smuggling route, a pariah of the EU and benefit no one but a criminal element north and south. it woudl kill our trade and our economy.

Anything that puts our trade and economy under threat due to some notion of "nationhood" and a united Ireland is economic suicide. Any dream of a united Ireland needs a strong economy in the republic. Northern Ireland is a financial burden and unless you want a united Ireland that is a 2 or 3rd world ****ehole with virtually no economy, a rabid socialist government and violence and bloodshed on the streets you need a strong Irish economy and the support and help of Europe.

First Up · 27-09-2017 10:32AM

The border issue was included in the GFA There is no conceivable Irish government that would not recognise and enforce it on ideological grounds.
That doesn't mean smuggling can't or wont take place - it would be virtually impossible to prevent it as it was even when the British army was on it.
That doesn't matter much in the context of the EU any more than it does anywhere on the EU's Eastern flank. No UK company can use smuggling as the basis for trade with the EU. A bit of leakage is neither here nor there.
.

Irish Border and Brexit

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