Irish Border and Brexit

murphaph · 24-09-2017 07:26PM

Jim2007 wrote: »

Not at all we already have precedence for parts of a country to remain in the customs union while other parts to do not. Admittedly not as big as NI, but examples:
- Büsingen am Hochrhein
- Campione d'Italia

I honestly don't think these tiny areas can be compared to NI. These areas are economically closer to the "other" side so being in customs union with them makes sense but NI trades much more with GB than the rest of the EU. It makes no sense for NI to be outside the UK customs area.

So either the whole UK stays in the EU customs union or NI leaves with GB.

FrancieBrady · 24-09-2017 07:32PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Is that because

(1) We want to allow chlorinated chicken and GM beef into the EU via the back door, or

(2) We want to allow cheap shopping for alcohol in Newry, or

(3) We want to stimulate Slab Murphy's smuggling business to provide funds for good republicans?

All those three things will happen unless we police our side of the border.

Showing yet again that you are under informed. 2 and 3 already exist. Although 3 would more likely be for the benefit of individuals. Plenty of people, of all persuasions making a healthy living from the existing border.

Jim2007 · 25-09-2017 11:51AM

murphaph wrote: »

I honestly don't think these tiny areas can be compared to NI. These areas are economically closer to the "other" side so being in customs union with them makes sense but NI trades much more with GB than the rest of the EU.

But it is the way the EU is starting to think, you heard Guy Verhofstadt last week. And just as Ireland gradually lost it's heavy dependence on the UK over the past 40 years there is nothing to say that NI trade would not do the same. In deed it could be argued as a very good first step towards unity.

Jim2007 · 25-09-2017 11:54AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Yes. And the solution doesn't have to have a precedent. We have to keep telling them that is the very essence of creativity, innovation and imagination.

Except that would most likely lead to Spain making the same case for Gibraltar and Scotland make the case of itself...

breatheme · 25-09-2017 11:56AM

I keep hearing about imaginative solutions but we keep coming back to either land border with the RoI or sea border within the UK.

jm08 · 25-09-2017 12:20PM

Jim2007 wrote: »

Except that would most likely lead to Spain making the same case for Gibraltar and Scotland make the case of itself...

I don't think Spain want Gibraltar to get special status in the EU (or at least they have asked that they have a veto on whatever is happening with Gibraltar). Scotland would be the exact opposite to the situation with NI - creating a landborder.

Sam Russell · 25-09-2017 01:13PM

jm08 wrote: »

I don't think Spain want Gibraltar to get special status in the EU (or at least they have asked that they have a veto on whatever is happening with Gibraltar). Scotland would be the exact opposite to the situation with NI - creating a landborder.

But the Scottish/English border is much shorter and easier to police. You just have to listen to the local accents to know which side of the border you are on. They also have different legal systems.

blanch152 · 25-09-2017 01:40PM

breatheme wrote: »

I keep hearing about imaginative solutions but we keep coming back to either land border with the RoI

That first option is bad for Northern Ireland

breatheme wrote: »

or sea border within the UK.

But the second option is even worse for Northern Ireland.

jm08 · 25-09-2017 03:07PM

blanch152 wrote: »

That first option is bad for Northern Ireland

But the second option is even worse for Northern Ireland.

Its not just all about Northern Ireland though. The way I'm looking at it that the first option of a land border between ROI & NI would be a disaster for ROI and EU, while the sea border between the island of Ireland and UK we could probably manage. To me, the most important thing is to maintain food integrity and that won't be possible if its a landborder between ROI & NI.

FrancieBrady · 25-09-2017 03:09PM

You have to look beyond the economic effects if you want to responsibly solve the problem posed with the re-imposition of a hard border on the island.
At least the EU are aware and addressing the importance of that.
We need to soon hear how the brexiters are going to address it practically.

jm08 · 25-09-2017 03:10PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

But the Scottish/English border is much shorter and easier to police. You just have to listen to the local accents to know which side of the border you are on. They also have different legal systems.

Scotland has no one to advocate their case and its not known if the people would even support it. Just like ROI & NI's economies are very entwined because of the land border, its a similar situation between Scotland and England who also share a land border.

edit: I see that Simon Coveneny is also pushing for NI or UK to remain in customs union and Irish farmers are asking that remaining in the customs union be extended out to 5 years in the case of NI.

http://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/ireland-pushing-uk-to-consider-allowing-extension-of-custom-rules-for-two-years-after-brexit-36165118.html

blanch152 · 25-09-2017 03:24PM

jm08 wrote: »

Its not just all about Northern Ireland though. The way I'm looking at it that the first option of a land border between ROI & NI would be a disaster for ROI and EU, while the sea border between the island of Ireland and UK we could probably manage. To me, the most important thing is to maintain food integrity and that won't be possible if its a landborder between ROI & NI.

How would a border between ROI and NI be a disaster for the EU? I cannot see how that would be so?

It isn't the fact of a border between ROI and NI that threatens food integrity, it is the fact of Brexit meaning leaving the single market and customs union. The ROI needs a secure border with NI to prevent it becoming a back door for chlorinated chicken and GM beef making their way onto the EU market.

breatheme · 25-09-2017 03:28PM

And the UK needs it to prevent EU citizens from sneaking in through NI.

jm08 · 25-09-2017 04:15PM

blanch152 wrote: »

How would a border between ROI and NI be a disaster for the EU? I cannot see how that would be so?

It isn't the fact of a border between ROI and NI that threatens food integrity, it is the fact of Brexit meaning leaving the single market and customs union. The ROI needs a secure border with NI to prevent it becoming a back door for chlorinated chicken and GM beef making their way onto the EU market.

It would be a disaster for the EU as they would have to treat a member state like a third country. The dogs in the streets know that there is no way a custom border between NI & ROI could be effective maintained.

Do you not remember the problems in the border areas with BSE and foot and mouth? Part of the problem is that there is a lot of bandit country there and no customs officials will go near the place.

demfad · 25-09-2017 04:36PM

breatheme wrote: »

And the UK needs it to prevent EU citizens from sneaking in through NI.

blanch152 wrote: »

How would a border between ROI and NI be a disaster for the EU? I cannot see how that would be so?

It isn't the fact of a border between ROI and NI that threatens food integrity, it is the fact of Brexit meaning leaving the single market and customs union. The ROI needs a secure border with NI to prevent it becoming a back door for chlorinated chicken and GM beef making their way onto the EU market.

jm08 wrote: »

It would be a disaster for the EU as they would have to treat a member state like a third country. The dogs in the streets know that there is no way a custom border between NI & ROI could be effective maintained.

Do you not remember the problems in the border areas with BSE and foot and mouth? Part of the problem is that there is a lot of bandit country there and no customs officials will go near the place.

The UK has decided to Brexit making the Irish border an external border to the EU. The UK has aid that it doesnt want a hard border. To keep the integrity of the single market there must be regulatory conformity between NI and ROI. Otherwise the EU are forced to police the border. If the UK wishes this border NOT to be policed (GFA or no trade deal) then it must come up with a proposal for the EU as to how this might be accomplished.

If there is not regulatory conformity on both sides of the border it must be policed (as any border would be) to keep the integrity of the internal market.

The question is how can the UK keep NI with same regulations as ROI. With no idea forthcoming after all thig time we must assume that they have no idea and are spoofing/fudging.

This is important because despite what the British media are saying they WILL NOT get a transition deal unless the 3 key aspects of Money, Citizens, Ireland is cleared up.

blanch152 · 25-09-2017 04:43PM

jm08 wrote: »

It would be a disaster for the EU as they would have to treat a member state like a third country. The dogs in the streets know that there is no way a custom border between NI & ROI could be effective maintained.

Do you not remember the problems in the border areas with BSE and foot and mouth? Part of the problem is that there is a lot of bandit country there and no customs officials will go near the place.

There is no way that either the UK, Ireland or the EU will accept an Irish Sea border - it has already been ruled out and the economic consequences for the North are horrendous.

I don't know why people keep bringing it up as a solution.

jm08 · 25-09-2017 05:11PM

blanch152 wrote: »

There is no way that either the UK, Ireland or the EU will accept an Irish Sea border - it has already been ruled out and the economic consequences for the North are horrendous.

I don't know why people keep bringing it up as a solution.

Because people in the know (like Barnier, Coveney & Guy Verhotstadt keep saying that the best solution seems to be that NI is regarded as a special case and that there can be no hard customs border between NI & ROI.

When you eliminate a customs border being ROI & NI as unworkable, you then look what would be operable - and thats in the Irish Sea.

Quote from Guy Verhotstadt here from last week's visit.

"They are all solutions that are possible. What is not possible is the solution put on the table by the British Government, which is a return to a border, but it is not visible.
"So we are very in favour of any solution, that avoids in any way a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish republic.
"The main proposal I have heard to avoid this, is that Northern Ireland could continue to participate in the single market and the customs union".

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/0921/906424-brexit-verhofstadt/

So, No. 1 point he makes - there can't be a hard border between ROI & NI.

No. 2: The best proposal he has heard is for Northern Ireland to remain in single market and customs union.

Just to point out, he doesn't mention NI including UK remaining in single market / customs union, just Northern Ireland which means there will have to be a border between the island of Ireland and GB.

FrancieBrady · 25-09-2017 06:48PM

jm08 wrote: »

Because people in the know (like Barnier, Coveney & Guy Verhotstadt keep saying that the best solution seems to be that NI is regarded as a special case and that there can be no hard customs border between NI & ROI.

When you eliminate a customs border being ROI & NI as unworkable, you then look what would be operable - and thats in the Irish Sea.

Quote from Guy Verhotstadt here from last week's visit.

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/0921/906424-brexit-verhofstadt/

So, No. 1 point he makes - there can't be a hard border between ROI & NI.

No. 2: The best proposal he has heard is for Northern Ireland to remain in single market and customs union.

Just to point out, he doesn't mention NI including UK remaining in single market / customs union, just Northern Ireland which means there will have to be a border between the island of Ireland and GB.

Exactly what I was getting at. And if you couple it with what Newton Emerson intimated what he was hearing on the grapevine, a sea border with special status for the north of Ireland is one logical solution.

blanch152 · 25-09-2017 08:19PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Exactly what I was getting at. And if you couple it with what Newton Emerson intimated what he was hearing on the grapevine, a sea border with special status for the north of Ireland is one logical solution.

Except that the DUP will quit and May will lose her majority, so that isn't an option. A lot of wishful thinking going on here, so might as well throw in my speculative idea...

What if SF took up their seats and supported May.......

FrancieBrady · 25-09-2017 08:34PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Except that the DUP will quit and May will lose her majority, so that isn't an option. A lot of wishful thinking going on here, so might as well throw in my speculative idea...

What if SF took up their seats and supported May.......

May might not make Christmas.

The DUP can only walk away once. A solution has to be found for the future, long after May and the DUP are gone.

SF will not govern other nationalities so your speculation is just that.

blanch152 · 25-09-2017 08:52PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

May might not make Christmas.

The DUP can only walk away once. A solution has to be found for the future, long after May and the DUP are gone.

SF will not govern other nationalities so your speculation is just that.

If May is gone and another election follows, there are three possible outcomes:

(1) May wins, and a hard Brexit follows, with a border between NI and Ireland

(2) Labour wins, thanks ironically to business support, and a soft Brexit with the UK still in the single market and customs union

(3) A similar stalemate with the DUP as kingpins so no Irish Sea border.

So, little chance of your favoured outcome, apart from the fact that an Irish Sea border results in a worse economic outcome for Northern Ireland than the bad outcome from a hard Brexit.

FrancieBrady · 25-09-2017 08:59PM

blanch152 wrote: »

If May is gone and another election follows, there are three possible outcomes:

(1) May wins, and a hard Brexit follows, with a border between NI and Ireland

(2) Labour wins, thanks ironically to business support, and a soft Brexit with the UK still in the single market and customs union

(3) A similar stalemate with the DUP as kingpins so no Irish Sea border.

So, little chance of your favoured outcome, apart from the fact that an Irish Sea border results in a worse economic outcome for Northern Ireland than the bad outcome from a hard Brexit.

1&3 do not meet the current requirements of the Irish gov, the rest of the EU nor the stated position of the UK gov.
So, imaginative, innovative, creative solution still required for progress.

As of now, there will be no hard border on the island.

blanch152 · 25-09-2017 09:04PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

1&3 do not meet the current requirements of the Irish gov, the rest of the EU nor the stated position of the UK gov.
So, imaginative, innovative, creative solution still required for progress.

As of now, there will be no hard border on the island.

When you desperately need an imaginative, innovative, creative solution, you are up against the wall.

As of now, there will be a hard border on the island, unless someone invents something new, or the UK back down.

FrancieBrady · 25-09-2017 09:10PM

blanch152 wrote: »

When you desperately need an imaginative, innovative, creative solution, you are up against the wall.

As of now, there will be a hard border on the island, unless someone invents something new, or the UK back down.

Which of the 3 parties want a hard border as of now?

The UK don't need to back down they need to come up with something that is not a hard border on the island.

blanch152 · 25-09-2017 09:13PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Which of the 3 parties want a hard border as of now?

The UK don't need to back down they need to come up with something that is not a hard border on the island.

It doesn't matter what people want, it is what is legally possible and economically sensible. On that basis, a hard border is currently the default option.

The only possibility is that Northern Ireland remains part of the single market just for food.

FrancieBrady · 25-09-2017 09:23PM

blanch152 wrote: »

It doesn't matter what people want, it is what is legally possible and economically sensible. On that basis, a hard border is currently the default option.

The only possibility is that Northern Ireland remains part of the single market just for food.

There you go, you are using your creativity.

The will is there, and if all 3 agree a solution then the DUP will be faced down. I think they will be politically forced to be pragmatic.
Probably get the Never Never brigade on the streets for a while before they calm down and accept it.

Junkyard Tom · 25-09-2017 09:52PM

blanch152 wrote: »

Except that the DUP will quit and May will lose her majority, so that isn't an option.

If the DUP collapse May's Govt they risk facing a Corbyn led Government. It's no secret that Labour is far more sympathetic to Irish nationalists than the Tories. A Corbyn led government will not give a shit about 'unionist fears' and might well give SF their border-poll which essentially signals the beginning of the end of the failed statelet.

What if SF took up their seats and supported May.......

SF swearing allegiance to Mrs Windsor and and legitimising Westminster rule in Ireland? That's not just wishful thinking, that's simple fantasy.

FrancieBrady · 25-09-2017 09:58PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

If the DUP collapse May's Govt they risk facing a Corbyn led Government. It's no secret that Labour is far more sympathetic to Irish nationalists than the Tories. A Corbyn led government will not give a shit about 'unionist fears' and might well give SF their border-poll which essentially signals the beginning of the end of the failed statelet.

SF swearing allegiance to Mrs Windsor and and legitimising Westminster rule in Ireland? That's not just wishful thinking, that's simple fantasy.

If it is standing in the way of a deal for the UK, the DUP will be a tiny party again.

murphaph · 25-09-2017 10:20PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

If the DUP collapse May's Govt they risk facing a Corbyn led Government. It's no secret that Labour is far more sympathetic to Irish nationalists than the Tories. A Corbyn led government will not give a shit about 'unionist fears' and might well give SF their border-poll which essentially signals the beginning of the end of the failed statelet.

SF swearing allegiance to Mrs Windsor and and legitimising Westminster rule in Ireland? That's not just wishful thinking, that's simple fantasy.

The DUP would still collapse the government rather than ascent to a special status for NI. They would be history with unionists if they did anything else.

FrancieBrady · 25-09-2017 10:29PM

murphaph wrote: »

The DUP would still collapse the government

And then what?
The problem still has to be solved. The British will bin the DUP before they effectively partition the island again. That offers more instability than a few unionists with hurt feelings.
And a sea border and special status hurts nothing but feelings.

Irish Border and Brexit

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